Posted by ESPN.com’s Kevin Seifert
We’ve noted, once or twice, Minnesota’s short-range passing game during the first two games of the Brett Favre era. But the Vikings -- and the rest of the NFC North -- accelerated their downfield looks during Week 3.
Favre completed a now-historic 32-yard touchdown pass to receiver Greg Lewis, one of three passes that gained at least 30 yards in the game. Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers completed three passes of more than 45 yards at St. Louis. Chicago’s Jay Cutler had two completions of 30 or more yards, including the game-winning 36-yard touchdown pass to receiver Devin Hester. Detroit quarterback Matthew Stafford had four passes of 20 or more yards.
Some of those plays were extended by productive open-field running from the receivers, so ESPN Stats & Information has developed a way to measure the quarterback’s role more accurately. How far the ball travels past the line of scrimmage is a good gauge of the throw’s difficulty and how often the quarterback is completing a true “deep ball.”
Below you can see where NFC North quarterbacks rank based on average yards the ball travels before it’s caught. The first three numbers are the quarterback’s raw statistics. In the “Avg.” column, you’ll see the results of video analysis from every completion he’s made this season.
As you’ll notice, Rodgers leads the entire NFL with an average of 12.7 yards per pass. That means his average completion is traveling nearly 13 yards before it reaches its target. Favre ranks No. 36 among NFL quarterbacks in this category; his passes have traveled less than half the distance of Rodgers’.
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What do we make of this comparison? First, I think it gives you a good idea of the style and approach each team takes. In general, longer passes are more difficult to complete but have much greater reward.
It’s interesting that Favre has the only 300-yard game in the division this season, but Rodgers can claim much more “responsibility” for his yardage totals. Because Favre’s passes have traveled shorter in the air, his totals can be more attributed to yards after the catch by receivers.
That’s not necessarily a comment on the quality of either quarterback’s play. More than anything, it’s a strong indicator in the different styles of two teams that run much different versions of the West Coast offense. So far this season, the Packers have morphed from a team that emphasizes yards after catch (YAC) to one that pushes it downfield.
Finally, I think these numbers demonstrate something we’ve all intuitively inferred from Stafford: that he’s an aggressive downfield thrower. Offensive coordinator Scott Linehan’s scheme affords him that opportunity, but certainly there have been young quarterbacks who take a safer route. Stafford hasn’t seemed to be one, and these numbers -- he ranks No. 14 among all quarterbacks in yards through the air -- backs up that observation.
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