DraftWatch: Strength of schedule

December, 17, 2009
12/17/09
10:45
AM ET
I think we can all agree on brightest moment of Detroit’s season: Quarterback Matthew Stafford's 1-yard touchdown pass to tight end Brandon Pettigrew on the final play of a 38-37 victory over Cleveland. The score established Stafford as a gutsy, ultra-competitive leader while also giving Lions fans a genuinely dramatic moment to celebrate.

It also could be the difference between the Lions selecting No. 1 and No. 4 overall in the 2010 draft.

Had Stafford not completed that pass, the Lions would be in a three-way tie with St. Louis and Tampa Bay for the worst record (1-12) in the NFL. Draft ties are broken in reverse order of strength of schedule.

We can’t determine each team’s final strength of schedule until the end of the season. But if it had ended today, the Lions at 1-12 would have the No. 1 pick by virtue of having the weakest strength of schedule of the three teams. Here is the way the top of the draft stacks up through Week 14:

1. St. Louis (.544 strength of schedule)
2. Tampa Bay (.564)
3. Cleveland (.522)
4. Detroit (.529)

We should be careful about projecting strength of schedule over a full season because it is a fluid statistic. The Buccaneers’ figure will be impacted by an upcoming game against New Orleans (13-0). The Lions and Rams, meanwhile, still have Arizona (8-5) on their schedules.

But it will be worth following these numbers to determine how impactful Pettigrew’s touchdown will be. We spent plenty of time last offseason discussing how many teams usually consider the No. 1 pick radioactive, considering the high salary slot relative to what can be a small difference in talent among the top three or four players in the draft.

That dynamic could be different in 2010, however. If December projections hold up, Nebraska defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh might actually be worth the extra money at No. 1 overall. As always, stay tuned.

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