In mulling the Brad Childress-Brett Favre skirmish this week, I kept returning to what we know is Childress’ ideal offensive approach: Power running with a passing game that capitalizes on play action.
As we discussed last week, the Air and Space division has supported a significant uptick in passing attempts with the influx of Favre, Chicago’s Jay Cutler and Detroit’s Matthew Stafford. No longer are we the Black and Blue division.
This week, however, I wondered about the relationship between the running game and play-action passes. Have the NFC North’s best running teams capitalized proportionally on play action, helping to elevate their passing numbers?
First, let’s take a look at the chart below, which ranks our four primary quarterbacks based on their passer rating on play-action passes. (As always, the numbers come courtesy of ESPN’s Stats & Information.) I’ve also given you each team’s league ranking in the run game.
For the most part, the chart bears out what we would probably conclude intuitively: The bigger the threat of your running game, the more successful you’ll be in play action. That’s especially true for the Vikings, who can draw multiple defenders on a fake to Adrian Peterson, and in Chicago -- where few opponents have feared a Matt Forte run.
The anomaly has come in Detroit, where Matthew Stafford had disproportionate success relative to the Lions’ running game. Stafford completed 62.3 percent of his play-action passes this season for five touchdowns while throwing only one interception. That performance points to two possible factors: 1.) Exceptional skills in carrying out the fake, and 2.) Prescient playcalling from offensive coordinator Scott Linehan.
Meanwhile, I found it interesting that Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has thrown four of his seven interceptions on play-action passes. Looked at another way, Rodgers has four interceptions in 69 play-action attempts but only three in 248 more traditional dropbacks.
So there’s your early Christmas present here in the NFC North: The knowledge that the running game (usually) promotes successful play-action passing.
As we discussed last week, the Air and Space division has supported a significant uptick in passing attempts with the influx of Favre, Chicago’s Jay Cutler and Detroit’s Matthew Stafford. No longer are we the Black and Blue division.
This week, however, I wondered about the relationship between the running game and play-action passes. Have the NFC North’s best running teams capitalized proportionally on play action, helping to elevate their passing numbers?
First, let’s take a look at the chart below, which ranks our four primary quarterbacks based on their passer rating on play-action passes. (As always, the numbers come courtesy of ESPN’s Stats & Information.) I’ve also given you each team’s league ranking in the run game.
For the most part, the chart bears out what we would probably conclude intuitively: The bigger the threat of your running game, the more successful you’ll be in play action. That’s especially true for the Vikings, who can draw multiple defenders on a fake to Adrian Peterson, and in Chicago -- where few opponents have feared a Matt Forte run.
The anomaly has come in Detroit, where Matthew Stafford had disproportionate success relative to the Lions’ running game. Stafford completed 62.3 percent of his play-action passes this season for five touchdowns while throwing only one interception. That performance points to two possible factors: 1.) Exceptional skills in carrying out the fake, and 2.) Prescient playcalling from offensive coordinator Scott Linehan.
Meanwhile, I found it interesting that Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has thrown four of his seven interceptions on play-action passes. Looked at another way, Rodgers has four interceptions in 69 play-action attempts but only three in 248 more traditional dropbacks.
So there’s your early Christmas present here in the NFC North: The knowledge that the running game (usually) promotes successful play-action passing.
Kevin Seifert | email
NFL- ESPN NFC North Blogger
- Joined ESPN in 2008
- Covered the Minnesota Vikings for the Minneapolis Star Tribune for eight years
ABOUT THIS BLOG
Kevin Seifert
Seifert joined ESPN.com in 2008 after covering the Minnesota Vikings for the Minneapolis Star Tribune for eight years. He lives in the Twin Cities with his wife and children.
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