NFC North Crunch Time: The debut

November, 6, 2008
Nov 6
4:33
PM ET
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By Kevin Seifert
Posted by ESPN.com's Kevin Seifert

We're just getting to the part of the season where it makes sense to look at the Big Picture of the regular season schedule, and as it turns out, the next two weeks could bring meaningful clarity to the NFC North race.

First, take a look at this schedule snippet for the divisions' top three teams (sorry, Detroit):

Nov. 9
Green Bay at Minnesota
Tennessee at Chicago

Nov. 16
Chicago at Green Bay
Minnesota at Tampa Bay

The executive summary of that stretch: The Bears could establish some breathing room in the division, the Packers could flip positions with the Bears and the Vikings could have their playoff hopes on life support.

Obviously, two losses in this stretch would hurt any team. So let's look at the other possibilities on a team-by-team basis:

Chicago: It would be quite an accomplishment to hand the Titans their first loss and win at Lambeau Field in successive weeks -- especially if quarterback Kyle Orton is sidelined. But should they pull it out, the Bears would hold at least a two-game lead over the Packers with six to play and also be on their way to tie-breaking superiority should it come to that. Even a split, as long as the victory comes in Green Bay, would allow the Bears to maintain their current lead while gaining that leg-up in the tiebreaker. The Bears have a tie-breaking edge over the Vikings, so even an identical record between the teams would amount to a one-game lead.

Green Bay: Winning the next two games would at minimum pull the Packers into a statistical tie with the Bears while also giving them the early tiebreaking edge. And that's assuming the Bears beat Tennessee this weekend. If not, the Packers would emerge from this stretch with sole possession of first place with a pair of victories. A split could still lift the Packers into a tie if the Bears lose one of their next two.

Minnesota: In the best-case scenario, the Vikings would win twice and pull into first place on their own. That would require the Bears to lose their next two games, joining the Packers at 5-5. If the Vikings and Bears are tied at 6-4, the Bears would technically maintain a hold of first place because of their victory at Soldier Field last month. History suggests two victories will be tough for the Vikings. They've lost their past five to the Packers and haven't won in Tampa Bay since 1997. Overall, they've lost eight of nine and 10 of 12 in Tampa Bay. Regardless of the result against the Buccaneers, a loss to the Packers would leave in a tough spot with a 1-3 division record.

I know it might seem early to discuss tiebreakers and various other scenarios. But at the end of most seasons, you can look back and identify a key stretch where the division winner emerged. It's possible we're about to head into that time here in the NFC North.

This was so much fun, we'll plan to re-visit "Crunch Time" each week here on the NFC North blog.

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