NFC North: 2011 Assistant Coaches Power Rankings

This week's edition of ESPN.com's offseason Power Rankings was one of my favorites, and not just because I wrote it. As opposed to ranking the best of this moment, our goal was to look ahead and project some of the people we might include in future Power Rankings.

If we're right, this week's list represents the core members of the next wave of NFL head-coaching candidates. We didn't include college coaches, and we made the executive decision to eliminate anyone who has already been a head coach, allowing us to focus on up-and-coming assistants throughout the league.

Given how much projection was involved in this exercise, I felt most comfortable with the people I know most about. (So did the other bloggers, and 24 assistants ended up appearing on at least one ballot.) To that end, I voted for four NFC North coaches in the order below:

3. Green Bay Packers safeties coach Darren Perry
6. Packers receivers coach Edgar Bennett
7. Chicago Bears special-teams coach Dave Toub
10. Packers assistant head coach/inside linebackers Winston Moss

Moss (No. 6) and Perry (No. 10) made the top 10. My thoughts below:
  • Perry has two important attributes going for him. First, he is a good coach and deserves credit not only for guiding the transition of Pro Bowl free safety Nick Collins into a new scheme but also patching together the strong safety spot last season between multiple starters. Second, and this is just as important to his future, he is a long-time disciple of defensive coordinator Dom Capers, having played and coached in his 3-4 scheme. Given the success of the Packers' defense last season, and the fact that both Super Bowl teams played that scheme last season, Perry has the schematic pedigree NFL teams will be looking for. Many people around the league believe it is a matter of when, not if, Perry makes the next step to defensive coordinator.
  • Bennett presided over the rise of tailback Ryan Grant from obscurity in 2007 and has drawn particular praise for drills designed to limit fumbles. Grant deserves some credit as well, but the fact remains he lost five fumbles in three years under Bennett as the Packers' primary tailback. Last season, no one among the trio of Brandon Jackson, John Kuhn and James Starks lost a fumble on a running play. The Packers' decision to shift Bennett to receivers coach suggests he is being groomed for a bigger job -- either in Green Bay or elsewhere.
  • I didn't really expect anyone else to vote for Toub, and I can't say for sure that an NFL owner would seriously consider hiring a special-teams coach from outside the organization for his own head-coaching job. But Toub has quite simply fielded the most competent and explosive special-teams group in the NFL since joining the Bears in 2004. (One obscure stat among many: The Bears have more blocked kicks during Toub's tenure than any other NFL team.) Toub also has the global mindset necessary to be a head coach, and in 2009, Philadelphia Eagles coach Andy Reid said: "On your staff, the coach that's best prepared to be a head coach is your special-teams coach. They have to deal with everybody on the roster, plus [the media]. That's a tough thing to do. Dave Toub would be a great head coach down the road." Like current Baltimore Ravens coach John Harbaugh, Toub might need to move to an offensive or defensive role for a time period to balance his résumé.
  • Moss drew interest from both the St. Louis Rams and Oakland Raiders two years ago for their respective head-coaching jobs. He is a strong leader, someone that players enjoy working for and deserves credit for transitioning A.J. Hawk into an inside linebacker and Desmond Bishop into a full-time starter. Moss has experience in a 3-4 and a 4-3 scheme, and there was talk of the Raiders hiring him as their defensive coordinator this winter. My thought in ranking him No. 10 is that NFL teams would pursue Perry before Moss because of Perry's connection with Capers, but that's just an educated guess.
  • Remember, this was a ranking of up-and-coming assistants, not a list of the 10 best assistant coaches in the NFL. If it had been, my list would have looked dramatically different. Many of the NFC North's best assistants are former head coaches who might not get another chance at the top job. That list includes Capers, Chicago Bears assistants Rod Marinelli, Mike Martz and Mike Tice, and Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Scott Linehan.
  • And finally, we put together a little video that you might have missed in the original post. Extra credit for anyone who identifies the photograph in the background of my segment.
ESPN.com’s NFL writers rank the top 10 up-and-coming assistant coaches in the league today. Next week: Top players overall.

Seven NFL teams named new head coaches after last season, tapping into a pool that included experienced coordinators and relatively unknown assistants alike. The class of 2011 featured longtime candidates (Leslie Frazier, Ron Rivera). It also included a trusted position coach in Mike Munchak (Tennessee Titans) and a couple of relative hotshots in Hue Jackson (Oakland Raiders) and Pat Shurmur (Cleveland Browns).

Who will comprise the NFL's next batch of head-coaching candidates? That was the question ESPN.com hoped to answer in this week's edition of the offseason Power Rankings. We established one ground rule by eliminating any assistant who has already had a permanent head-coaching job. The idea was to develop a list that focused on the "next wave" of coaching candidates.

No less than 24 NFL assistants received at least one vote, a reflection of both the variables involved in head-coaching searches and the relative lack of national name recognition for all but the most highly regarded assistants.

So in that vein, it was no surprise to see four well-known assistants at the top of our list, headed by New York Giants defensive coordinator Perry Fewell -- who placed first or second on six of the eight ballots. Dallas Cowboys defensive coordinator Rob Ryan finished second, followed by New York Jets offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer and Arizona offensive line coach Russ Grimm.

Fewell is an ideal candidate in many ways, having spent time as the Buffalo Bills' interim coach in 2009 and leading a substantial turnaround of the Giants' defense last season. Fewell interviewed for four head-coaching jobs last winter, and NFC East blogger Dan Graziano suggested that experience, along with a high profile afforded to coaches in New York, make him "the most likely guy on the list to be a head coach soon."

Just don't bother forwarding his name to AFC South colleague Paul Kuharsky, who couldn't find room for Fewell on his 10-man ballot. Kuharsky noted the Giants' poor performance in Week 2 last season against the Indianapolis Colts, during which quarterback Peyton Manning threw three touchdowns and cruised to an easy 38-14 victory.

"Certainly I'm letting one game overinfluence my ballot," Kuharsky muttered. "But Fewell's plan for the Giants against the Colts last season was so bad that I could not help but score him down for it. Was he not familiar with how Peyton Manning and Indianapolis operate?"

We can't cover every coach who received votes in this exercise, but let's hit some of the more interesting names that received attention.

Another Ryan? Deserved or not, Ryan has long been considered a loose cannon. There is little doubt about his schematic prowess, but hiring him would require a confident owner ready to make a leap of faith.

The success of twin brother Rex Ryan with the Jets might have softened the perception of that risk, and collectively we see Rob Ryan on the doorstep of a job.

"Similar to Rex, Rob Ryan is good with X's and O's and has the type of outgoing personality players want to be around," AFC North blogger James Walker said. "I think both are equally important in today's NFL. Both brothers say exactly what's on their mind, and before that scared off a lot of teams. But Rex broke the ice with his success in New York and that could help Rob in the future."

The next generation: Schottenheimer has turned down more opportunities to interview for head-coaching jobs than he has actually submitted to. He has nixed requests from the Miami Dolphins and Bills in recent years, but he did interview for the Jets' job that ultimately went to Ryan. I placed him atop my ballot (he finished No. 3 overall) because I think NFL people have made up their mind that he is the kind of young and innovative assistant who can turn around their franchise. (Think: Cowboys coach Jason Garrett.)

Schottenheimer's pedigree doesn't hurt -- he's the son of longtime NFL coach Marty Schottenheimer -- and I'm not sure how closely teams will dissect the specifics of the Jets' offensive performance. Graziano, on the other hand, thinks Schottenheimer is close to coaching his way out of the golden-child image he cultivated and left him off his ballot.

"Having spent a good amount of time around that team the past couple of years, I just feel like defensive coordinator Mike Pettine is the more likely guy to end up a head coach," Graziano said. "Schottenheimer's under a ton of pressure as Ryan defers the offensive responsibilities to him. I feel like, if the offense has a bad year, he could end up in trouble or even out of a job. And given their youth at quarterback and running back and the uncertainty of their receiver situation, a bad year for the Jets' offense is possible.

"Now, he could be a genius, make chicken salad and be the next hot name eight months from now. But I think there's the potential that he may have already peaked as a hot coaching prospect and that he might not be set up to succeed in New York."

The big fella: Four years ago, Grimm thought he would be the next Pittsburgh Steelers coach. He moved to Arizona after the Steelers selected Mike Tomlin instead, and we view his status as a head-coaching candidate with wide disparity.

AFC West blogger Bill Williamson put Grimm atop his ballot, and AFC East blogger Tim Graham had him No. 2. Kuharsky and I left him off.

Williamson thinks Grimm has moved to "the top of the food chain" largely because most of his "hot-name" contemporaries have already gotten jobs. As well, Graham suggested that it will soon be Grimm's turn because he is still well-regarded throughout the league.

Personally, I couldn't get past Grimm's well-publicized gaffe after interviewing with the Chicago Bears, after which he referred to the team owners as the "McClaskey" family. I also agree with NFC West blogger Mike Sando, who ranked Grimm No. 8 and wondered: "Is he still ascending? Grimm seems content coaching the line in Arizona. He has plateaued and doesn't seem to be losing any sleep over it."

Welcome back: Unless you're a college football fan, you might not have heard of Jacksonville Jaguars offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter. He spent six years as the head coach at Arizona State, but has drawn some quiet acclaim for his work with the Jaguars and made a strong impression while interviewing with the Denver Broncos last winter.

"In a setting where he won't have to deal with boosters and can shine for being a smart X's and O's guy with strong coaching DNA," Kuharsky said, "I think he'd do far better. He's smart and will interview quite well. He really impressed John Elway and the Broncos before losing out to John Fox's experience. St. Louis wanted him as coordinator, but Jacksonville wouldn't let him go. He's heading into the final year of his contract. How Blaine Gabbert develops early on will have a big bearing on Koetter's future."

Secret weapon: In two years, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have developed quarterback Josh Freeman into one of the better starters in the league. The man largely responsible is offensive coordinator Greg Olson, who navigated a disastrous 2009 preseason -- coach Raheem Morris promoted him in the middle of training camp after firing Jeff Jagodzinski -- and NFL teams often seek out coaches with success developing young quarterbacks.

"I think Olson deserves a ton of credit for developing Freeman so quickly," said NFC South blogger Pat Yasinskas. "Freeman threw for 25 touchdowns and six interceptions in his first full season as a starter and carried an incredibly young team to a 10-6 record. I also think people need to look at what Olson did last year with rookie running back LeGarrette Blount and rookie receiver Mike Williams. He helped make them into instant stars."

Super Bowl entitlement: The Green Bay Packers were the only team to place more than one name in the top 10, as would be expected from a championship team. Assistant head coach/inside linebackers Winston Moss is at No. 6, while safeties coach Darren Perry finished No. 10. I also voted for receivers coach Edgar Bennett, who has moved over from running backs coach and is clearly being groomed for bigger things.

I'll detail my ranking of the Packers' assistants, including why I think so highly of Perry, in a future post for NFC North readers. But we'll say this for now: Moss is a strong leader who has drawn interest from the Raiders, while Perry is a disciple of Packers defensive coordinator Dom Capers and his coveted 3-4 scheme.

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