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The very first comment on this week's Have at It illustrated why it needed to be a very NFC North-centric discussion. I asked you to debate who was most deserving of the NFL's Coach of the Year award, and mike feuerborn wrote: "Jim Harbaugh. No brainer."

Yes, I would expect Harbaugh, the San Francisco 49ers coach, to be the top candidate in a national, 32-team vote. But on an NFC North scale, the question boils down to Mike McCarthy of the Green Bay Packers and Jim Schwartz of the Detroit Lions. Your discussion revolved around three points:

• Those who think the coach of a 14-1 team deserves more recognition than the coach of a 10-5 team.
• Those who think McCarthy had more talent to work with and less obstacles to hurdle, making Schwartz's performance more impressive.
• Those who think the Lions' midseason loss of control traced back to Schwartz's chasedown of Harbaugh in Week 6, making him at fault for a stretch that nearly scuttled their season.

Let's hit all three points.

McCarthy's 14-1 record this season and 20-1 mark since last December, including the 2010 playoffs, generated the most civil discussion. Wrote BigSlammy: "The Packers played all season with a target on their backs, especially late in season when their record made them every other team's Super Bowl. Throw in the O-line injuries and there you have it. More success on a bigger stage: McCarthy."

Added mikedr9: "No denying what Schwartz has accomplished in Detroit, and in any other year he would be my choice. But it just came in the same year as McCarthy has guided the Packers through a phenomenal stretch."

"Give it to McCarthy," wrote LKP The Fever Wins, "but then he hands it directly to Aaron Rodgers."

Which of course, leads to the second point. McCarthy has the NFL's presumptive MVP playing quarterback and seven of his players were named to the Pro Bowl earlier this week. The Lions have what many would consider a talented roster, but in the end only one of their players -- receiver Calvin Johnson -- made the Pro Bowl.

"When Schwartz got to Detroit there were only about five NFL-caliber players on the whole team," wrote bobbyg640. "He has got the team in the playoffs. I thought McCarthy deserved it last year, but this year I believe Schwartz is more deserving. It is a lot harder to create success than to continue it."

Gandychr wondered "how hard is it to coach a team with Aaron Rodgers and a team with no new players" and added: "[Schwartz] has been able to manage the injuries with the offense and the shenanigans on the field while managing the media. 10-5 as a Lions fan is a dream come true."

It's an undeniable accomplishment to take a team to the playoffs three years after it finished 0-16. But many of you weren't willing to consider Schwartz through that lens. Ryaninhof57 wrote that the Lions' "lack of discipline" during portions of this season "falls onto Schwartz for losing control of his players and encouraging the stupidity." AllHaleMegatron described him/herself as "a lifelong Lions fan" that "bumped my head on the car door" and "bled Blue & Silver" but still sided with McCarthy: "That doesn't make me blind to what has been going on this season as I watch EVERY game I can. Schwartz is definitely an honorable mention but I think he tainted his COY chances with the HarbaughGate scandal. It was stupid and unprofessional of him to get so bent out of shape about a slap on the back.

"I GOTTA go with McCarthy on this one. He led his wildcard team to a SB championship and then turned right around and almost ran the board through the regular season."

My take? I think it's an awfully slippery slope to start grading coaches on a curve based on the perceived advantages they've been handed. Why do we hold a talented roster against a coach's performance? Who is to say the coach didn't play an important, or even the critical, role in developing those players into elite performers? Or in putting them in position to maximize their skills? Aren't both of those part of a coach's job?

I understand how boring the Coach of the Year award would be if it was awarded annually to the coach whose team has the NFL's best record. The job Harbaugh did in ending the 49ers' eight-year playoff drought, for example, and resurrecting the career of quarterback Alex Smith merits substantial recognition.

I was among those who was critical of Schwartz's postgame charge toward Harbaugh, and a reasonable person could argue that it at least indirectly contributed to some of the incidents that held the Lions back during a 2-5 stretch. But in the end, there is no disputing Schwartz had one heck of a season. He has the Lions at 10 victories, and of his five losses, four have come to playoff teams. The fifth was to the Chicago Bears, who probably would have made the playoffs were it not for quarterback Jay Cutler's broken thumb.

With that said, however, McCarthy hasn't just presided over the NFL's best record. He has elevated the Packers' overall performance over what won Super Bowl XLV, even as his defense has slipped. The Packers didn't just have a great season. They went on a ride that put them among the best teams in the history of the league based on consecutive victories.

I'm not sure how it will shake out in the voting, but I don't see how you can ignore the coach's role in matters of such achievement. If I had a vote, McCarthy would be my choice for both the NFC North and NFL Coach of the Year award. Sometimes, the simplest answer is the right one, even if it's not initially obvious.

A lasting mystery of the Donovan McNabb trade has finally been solved. As part of the deal, the Minnesota Vikings renegotiated McNabb's contract into a one-year deal worth $5.05 million, according to Tom Pelissero of 1500ESPN.com.

McNabb has $2.2 million in incentives available to him, bringing the maximum possible value to $7.25 million. Regardless, the deal makes McNabb one of the NFL's lowest-paid established quarterbacks. For context, consider that the deal is roughly equal to the one-year, $5 million contract that Alex Smith signed this summer with the San Francisco 49ers. In this market, it's essentially the minimum value for a veteran quarterback who might start in 2011.

It's also less than a third of what the Vikings paid former starter Brett Favre last season. Favre earned $16 million in 2010 and $13 million in 2009.

The value of McNabb's deal reflects two realities: Few teams were clamoring for his services and the Vikings already have his successor, rookie Christian Ponder, on the roster. If you're McNabb, you're betting that you'll have a strong season and can cash in -- somewhere -- as an unrestricted free agent next spring.

I'm sorry, Chad Ochocinco, but have you done lost your mind?

I know you're bored with the lockout and all, but I'm not sure picking a Twitter fight with our guy Ndamukong Suh is the smartest thing you've ever done.

I'm aware of no history between the Cincinnati Bengals receiver and the Detroit Lions defensive tackle, and I fully realize that Ochocinco loves him some attention. I don't know if this qualified as Twitter trash talk or a set-up for cheap entertainment. It's suspicious that Atlanta Falcons receiver Roddy White, at about the same time, randomly teed off via Twitter on San Francisco 49ers quarterback Alex Smith, but I have no idea if there is any kind of publicity-seeking coordinated effort here.

If nothing else, we have a fun way to close out the second full week of April.

Ochocinco started it off late Friday afternoon. I've pieced the series of exchanges together as best as I can. They ended with Suh and Ochocinco agreeing to a soccer-style shooout.

Ochocinco: @ndamukong_suh If we got into a fight at what point would you beg for mercy before i whooped your [expletive]?

Suh: HAHA NEVER, you don't want those problems!!!! RT @ochocinco If we got into a fight what point would you beg for mercy before i whooped ur..

Ochcocinco: @ndamukong_suh well we can get a hand held camera, fight, then put it on youtube of me beating you to a pulp

Suh: HA @ochocinco you couldn't beat me in soccer, let alone a fight.

Ochocinco: @ndamukong_suh Me and you on any ice rink and go at it Hockey fight style, everything goes until somebody hits the ground

Suh: @ochocinco bro I saw ur weak attempt at soccer..how bout we settle this w/ a shootout on the soccer field in #NYC @ #NFLDraft?#dontbescared

Ochocinco: @ndamukong_suh my attempt at soccer was awesome, we can have a shootout whenever you are ready, i will be the goalie also

Suh: That's a bet and I'll play goalie too!!! RT @ochocinco my attempt at soccer was awesome, we can have a shootout whenever you are ready...

For those who forgot, Suh played soccer growing up and is proficient enough to be the Lions' emergency field goal kicker.

I'll say this: Ochcocinco's got a better chance of beating Suh in a shootout than he does in a hockey-style fight. I'm afraid there would be only two sounds in the latter: One when Suh hit Ochcocinco, and one when Ochocinco hits the ground.

GREEN BAY, Wis. -- Al Harris pulled on a brown leather coat, turned around from his locker and for a moment I thought I was looking at the wrong guy. There were no crutches to be seen. No medical officials were hovering. Harris looked like any other Packers player departing Lambeau Field.

Then he took a step, and that was it. Harris could not put any weight on his left knee, and it appears a virtual certainty he will miss the rest of the season. The same could be true for linebacker Aaron Kampman, who like Harris, rode a cart off the field in the second half of the Packers’ 30-24 victory over San Francisco. Multiple reports suggested both players tore their anterior cruciate ligaments, but coach Mike McCarthy said only that the injuries "did not look very good."

Regardless, the Packers almost certainly will be left to pursue a wild-card playoff berth without two of their most prominent players.

“Those are two staples of our defense,” cornerback Charles Woodson said. “They are great guys and teammates. I don’t know the extent of either one of their injuries right now. But not to have those guys is going to be tough going for this team.”

Through all of their trials in pass protection and scheme adjustment, the Packers have strung together consecutive victories to put themselves in position for a playoff spot. At 6-4, they’re part of a second tier of NFC teams behind the division leaders. That group includes the New York Giants (6-4) and Philadelphia (6-4).

Otherwise, the Packers have gained an advantage over Atlanta (5-5), Chicago (4-6), San Francisco (4-6) and Carolina (4-6) with six games to play. I believe they’ve tweaked their offense sufficiently enough to mitigate some problems in pass protection, having rediscovered their running game while targeting checkdown receivers more frequently. (Sunday, tailback Ryan Grant rushed for 129 yards while backup Brandon Jackson and tight end Jermichael Finley combined for 13 receptions.)

But even with Harris and Kampman on the field, the Packers were just starting to turn the corner on defense. To me, the biggest question of their playoff run isn’t whether they can protect Rodgers. It’s whether defensive coordinator Dom Capers can piece together a game plan to match their looming personnel turnover.

Their new mix is likely to include Tramon Williams in Harris’ spot along with rookie Brandon Underwood in the nickel. Rookie Brad Jones and veteran Brady Poppinga would replace Kampman.

“It’s like that in the NFL,” Capers said. “A week ago, when we didn’t have Aaron, Brad went in and did a nice job and we played well. Their job is to get ready and our job is to see how much we think they can handle and what they can do to find a way to play and win the game.”

I think most of us can agree the Packers strung together their best six quarters of defense last week against Dallas and in the first half Sunday against the 49ers. Here’s what the Cowboys and 49ers managed over that stretch:

Points: 10
Yards: 335
First Downs: 18

Now look at what happened from the moment Harris joined Kampman in the locker room at the 10:52 mark in the fourth quarter. See what the 49ers amassed in 10 offensive plays to close out the game:

Points: 14
Yards: 92
First downs: 5

The Packers suddenly couldn’t stop a team they had limited to one first down in the first half. Frankly, the Packers locked down the victory mostly because their offense ran the final 5:50 off the clock.

Capers noted that the 49ers began their comeback before Harris was injured, but I don’t think you can underestimate the domino effect of his departure. I’m well aware that rookie Michael Crabtree beat him for a 38-yard touchdown in the third quarter, but to that point Harris had blanketed him.

Woodson, for one, said Harris had made substantial progress in accepting the scheme recently.

“The last two weeks,” Woodson said, “the way he has studied, knowing what he’s going to get out there on the field, has drastically improved.”

Williams has a nose for the ball and is a decent playmaker, but I’m far from sold on his coverage skills. Crabtree, not noted for his speed, ran right past him on a 35-yard pass that set up the 49ers’ final touchdown.

“The second half, it wasn’t real good,” Williams said. “It’s a win, but deep down inside, we know it wasn’t a winning performance against a good team.”

In the worst-case scenario, in fact, the Packers will have two late-round draft picks in prominent roles for the rest of the season. Underwood (Round 6b) is the likeliest candidate for nickel, and Jones (Round 7) will certainly see significant time in Kampman’s place.

Like Harris, it seemed as though Kampman was beginning to find a comfort zone in the Packers' defense over the past few weeks. After sitting out the Cowboys game because of a concussion, Kampman sacked 49ers quarterback Alex Smith in the first quarter and unofficially finished with a team-high four solo tackles.

If he is lost for the season, you have to wonder if Kampman has played his final game in a Packers uniform. His contract expires after this season, and while it’s clear he can be part of a successful 3-4 defense, it’s equally clear his skills are not maximized in it.

But Sunday’s sack came from a nickel-like package in which Kampman rushed from a down-lineman’s position. Kampman’s productivity has increased since Capers began giving him more opportunities to rush as a defensive end.

“I’m not sure how he felt about the defense this season and switching schemes,” Woodson said. “But I know one thing: Nobody worked harder at it trying to be a productive member of this team. I know he was excited, especially how we did last weekend [and with us] doing some good things today. To see a guy [seriously injured] that you know works hard at the game and loves the game, both him and Al, is a tough thing.”

And not just for Woodson. Overcoming these injuries, while maintaining their recent standard of defensive play, will be the key to the Packers’ season.

GREEN BAY, Wis. -- A few halftime thoughts from Lambeau Field, where Green Bay leads San Francisco by a tidy score of 23-3:

• I stand by my assertion that the Packers started this game a bit cautiously, at least for them. Nine runs in their first 19 plays is pretty balanced for a Mike McCarthy team. But after establishing that balance, the Packers pulled away from the 49ers in the air. Rodgers threw on 21 of the Packers’ next 25 plays and set a career high for passing yards in a half with 274. My impression through the season has been that San Francisco has a decent defense, but the Packers gashed the 49ers for 17 first downs and 362 total yards.
• The statistical mismatch was even more glaring on the other side of the ball. The Packers are physically dominating the 49ers' offensive line with a relative minimum of blitzes. All three of their sacks have come from players lined up as defensive linemen (B.J. Raji, Cullen Jenkins and Aaron Kampman). Overall, the admittedly pathetic 49ers offense has 57 yards and one first down. All but 15 of those yards came on one play, Frank Gore’s 42-yard run on their opening drive. Quarterback Alex Smith has 5 yards passing.
• If this score holds up, the Packers will vault into a smaller group of teams competing for a playoff spot while pushing the 49ers further down that list. Entering Sunday, only one game separated the two teams in that race.
• Even the Packers’ special teams are doing their part. Here are the yard lines where San Francisco’s offense has started its five possessions: The 20, 16, 20, 20 and 19.

» NFC Final Word: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Five nuggets of knowledge about Week 11:

As Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc. points out, Green Bay defensive coordinator Dom Capers would be wise to make Charles Woodson the Packers’ version of Troy Polamalu. We all know Woodson is a great cover man. But as the Packers move away from the bump-and-run, “Cover 1” they have used in the past, Woodson can be freed up to make big plays all over the field. He’s an especially instinctive blitzer and has the experience to really confuse San Francisco quarterback Alex Smith, who has never played with much savvy in the games I’ve seen him. If Woodson can get into Smith’s head, the Packers shouldn’t have any trouble stopping the 49ers' offense.

Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers grew up a 49ers fan and once was deeply disappointed not to have been drafted to play for his hometown team. Sometimes you see players especially motivated to face teams that passed over them in the draft, but I don’t sense that from Rodgers. The primary people who made the decision to draft Smith over Rodgers in 2005, namely former coach Mike Nolan, are no longer with the organization. (Another was current Packers coach Mike McCarthy, then the 49ers offensive coordinator, but we’ll leave that for another day.) By the way, I wouldn’t expect a lot of blitzing Sunday from the 49ers. They’re sending added pressure on only 28.8 percent of their snaps, according to ESPN Stats & Information. That's the ninth-lowest total in the NFL.

If Minnesota beats Seattle on Sunday at the Metrodome, it would mark the seventh time in franchise history that the team would have made it through 10 games with one loss or fewer. Three of those previous seasons resulted in a Super Bowl appearance and a fourth in the NFC Championship Game. More important, it could leave the Vikings one week away from clinching the NFC North title this season. In order for that to happen, the Vikings would need to defeat Chicago on Nov. 29 and have Green Bay lose once during the next two weeks.

This is a bad week for Chicago to need its running game. You could make an argument for the Bears backing off their reliance on quarterback Jay Cutler, who threw five interceptions in his last game and has performed horridly in night games this season. But after nine games of brick walls, it’s hard to imagine tailback Matt Forte suddenly finding wide-open lanes here in Week 11. Philadelphia has done a pretty good job stopping the run this season anyway, ranking No. 8 overall in the NFL, and the Bears are still trying to settle the left side of their offensive line. But if/when they turn to Cutler, be advised of these figures calculated by Dan Pompei of the Chicago Tribune: Cutler is 4-9 in 13 career night games. He’s thrown an interception every 20.3 passes at night, compared to one for every 34.6 passes in day games.

Sunday’s game at Ford Field could be the NFL’s worst matchup since, well, St. Louis played there three weeks ago. About 40,000 fans are expected. The game is blacked out locally. Worst of all, according to ESPN’s Stats & Information, this is only the fifth matchup between 1-8 teams in the past 25 years. How bad are the Browns? The Lions are getting 3 1/2 points in the betting columns, and that might be a little stingy. Cleveland doesn’t have the offensive firepower to capitalize against the Lions’ undermanned defense. In case you’ve missed it, the Browns have only five offensive touchdowns in their past 15 regular season games. That’s the worst 15-game stretch for any NFL offense since the 1970 NFL-AFL merger.

It looks like the Brian Brohm era is over in Green Bay.

Brohm, the 56th overall pick of the 2008 draft, signed Wednesday night with Buffalo, according to multiple media reports, including this one by the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Brohm has spent the season on the Packers’ practice squad and was eligible to sign onto any team’s 53-man roster. The Packers tried to match Buffalo’s offer, according to the Journal Sentinel, but Brohm declined and instead chose a fresh start with the Bills.

The Packers drafted Brohm before Aaron Rodgers developed into their long-term starter. It’s a good thing: Brohm struggled in both of his training camps with the Packers and was far behind Matt Flynn, a seventh-round pick in 2008, on the depth chart.

The Brohm situation might be the reason the Packers released receiver Jake Allen; they didn’t immediately fill his roster spot Wednesday. Allen was claimed on waivers by Cleveland.

Continuing around the NFC North:

• New defensive coordinator Dom Capers has elevated the Packers to the NFL’s No. 4 ranking against the run, notes Pete Dougherty of the Green Bay Press-Gazette.
• Jason Wilde of ESPN Milwaukee offers his spin on the Rodgers-Alex Smith story.
• Following up on Wednesday’s stadium hiccup in Minnesota: The Vikings angrily rejected a lease extension offer from the commission that runs the Metrodome. Owner Zygi Wilf said in a letter that the offer, coming at a time when he is seeking a new stadium, makes him question the future of the Vikings in Minnesota.
• A contract extension for coach Brad Childress isn’t finalized, writes Judd Zulgad of the Star Tribune.
• Chicago has turned down all on-camera interview requests with NBC in advance of Sunday night’s game against Philadelphia, writes Brad Biggs of the Chicago Sun-Times.
• Bears center Olin Kreutz (back) should play Sunday night, writes Jeff Dickerson of ESPN Chicago.
• Bears quarterback Jay Cutler is 4-9 in his 13 career night games, notes Dan Pompei of the Chicago Tribune.
• Detroit signed cornerback DeAngelo Smith off the Bears’ practice squad, the eighth defensive back they have added since the start of the season, writes Nicholas J. Cotsonika of the Detroit Free Press.
• Lions safety Louis Delmas says his infected tooth has healed, reports John Niyo of the Detroit News.

Sunday’s matchup between Aaron Rodgers and Alex Smith -- er, San Francisco and Green Bay -- brings to mind the quirky coincidences of the 2005 draft. As you might recall, the 49ers chose Smith over Rodgers as the No. 1 overall pick. (If you forgot, we in the media will remind you all week.)

That choice came with the blessing of then-49ers offensive coordinator Mike McCarthy, who left after the season to become the Packers’ new head coach. He then assumed responsibility for developing Rodgers, who had fallen to the Packers at No. 24 overall.

Five seasons later, there’s no question Rodgers has developed into the better quarterback. Whether Smith would have benefited from Rodgers’ three-year apprenticeship is one of many intriguing angles to this story. Here’s another: It has taken Rodgers five years to catch up to Smith in the financial department.

This fact is of particular interest to the NFC North blog, where we’ve had multiple discussions about Detroit giving quarterback Matthew Stafford a staggering $41.7 million in guarantees. But let’s break down the Smith-Rodgers financial comparison as an earlier example of the NFL’s absurdly top-heavy rookie pay scale.

As Andrew Brandt pointed out over on the National Football Post, Smith received a six-year deal with $24 million guaranteed in 2005. Rodgers got $4.13 million guaranteed in his rookie contract.

Rodgers’ 2008 extension included $20 million in guarantees, bringing the total guaranteed money in his career to $24.13 million.

I think that dichotomy is especially significant considering how close Rodgers and Smith were in 2005 draft rankings. As late as the morning of the draft, some analysts thought the 49ers would select Rodgers -- a Cal product who grew up rooting for them. The decision cost Rodgers more than $15 million. From a financial perspective, it took more than half a decade to catch up.

Let’s take a closer look at Chicago’s 10-6 loss at San Francisco, beginning with a glance at how our pregame keys played out:

Bears-49ers coverage

• Kevin Seifert's observations
• Mike Sando's observations
• Greenberg: Who pays in Chicago?
• Isaacson: Believe? In what?
• ESPN Chicago

• As it turned out, the 49ers were an eminently beatable team Thursday night. Their defense put good pressure on Bears quarterback Jay Cutler, especially in the second half, but their offense hardly capitalized on five turnovers. And punter Andy Lee’s touchback on a punt from the 36-yard line gave the Bears better field position than they should have had to start their final drive.
• The Bears defense played with an intensity and aggressiveness that we haven’t seen in a while. But in the end, 49ers tailback Frank Gore piled up more yardage than I thought he would, finishing with 104 yards on 25 carries. He was especially effective in helping the 49ers run off more than six minutes off the clock in the fourth quarter.
• San Francisco quarterback Alex Smith didn’t do much to help the 49ers’ cause, and the Bears limited him to 118 yards on 16-of-23 passing. But Chicago only pressured him into one mistake, a poor deep pass that cornerback Zackary Bowman intercepted.
• I urged the Bears to put the game on Cutler’s shoulders on the premise that tailback Matt Forte wouldn’t get enough running room to give them a balanced attack. If the Bears were going to go down, I reasoned, it should be while riding the player they mortgaged their short-term future on. On cue, Forte managed 41 yards on 20 carries. And the Bears went down with Cutler, who threw two interceptions in the end zone and five overall.
• I understand what the NFL Network’s Matt Millen was saying about some of Cutler’s interceptions. All five weren’t solely his fault. But I thought Cutler played with a jacked-up, frenetic pace that led him to overanticipate some passes and force some others. Devin Hester might have bumped into the umpire on one of the interceptions, but Cutler still pushed the ball his way in an undisciplined fashion. In the red zone, Cutler seems so locked in on tight ends -- especially Greg Olsen -- that he doesn’t seem to be seeing the entire field. It sure looked like receiver Earl Bennett was open on the final play.
• I’m sure the Bears defense wishes it had gotten the ball back for its offense sooner in the fourth quarter. But it produced a pretty impressive effort, holding the admittedly lackluster 49ers to 12 first downs and 216 offensive yards. That included several “hello” moments from defensive tackle Tommie Harris, who notched a sack and also had a tackle behind the line of scrimmage. The overall performance came despite the absence of safeties Kevin Payne (back) and Al Afalava (shoulder). Veteran Josh Bullocks was forced into the starting lineup as a result.
• As Pirates4Vikings noted on the previous post, this loss leaves the Bears needing help if they want to win the NFC North. Minnesota can now win the division with three consecutive victories, all at the Metrodome, and two losses by Green Bay over the same stretch.

That’s it for now. For regular readers, please note that this post will count as our Week 10 “Third and one” for the Bears.

Posted by ESPN.com’s Kevin Seifert

Here’s how unpredictable the NFL is: As dark as these days are for Chicago and its fans, I have no trouble conceiving the possibility that the Bears could go to San Francisco on three days’ rest and beat the 49ers. Often, that’s how this league works: You get steamrolled one week (or, in the Bears’ case, twice in the past three weeks) and then win a game that logic dictates you shouldn’t.

How could it happen? Let’s run through a few tips as we anticipate an 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff:

• Never underestimate how bad the other team might be, or might be playing at the moment. Sure, things seem dire for the Bears as they sit at 4-4, having recently been on the losing end of 45-10 and 41-21 games. But don’t forget the 49ers have lost four consecutive games and haven’t won since the first week of October. San Francisco fans are feeling the same way about the 49ers as you feel about the Bears.
• Don’t oversell to stop tailback Frank Gore. There’s no doubt Gore has been a game-breaker at times this season. But know this: Almost half of his season yardage total have come on three big carries. That’s right. Gore has touchdown runs of 80, 79 and 64 yards; that’s a total of 223 yards. On his other 77 carries, Gore has 224 yards. That means on 96 percent of his runs this season, Gore is averaging 2.9 yards per carry. I’m not diminishing the game-changing potential of a long run. But it’s important to remember that in the big picture, Gore has been pretty well shut down by opposing defenses. If it were me, I wouldn’t necessarily be compelled to bring an eighth defender in the box.
• Consider quarterback Alex Smith eminently shakable and scheme your blitzes accordingly. In his past two starts, Smith has thrown four interceptions and has been sacked eight times. The Bears shouldn’t back off their pressure packages just because Arizona’s Kurt Warner handled them well last week. With the Bears’ injury-depleted secondary, pressure will be at a premium. Smith is more likely to force passes and make poor decisions than Warner or even Cincinnati’s Carson Palmer.
• Resist the urge to remove some pressure from quarterback Jay Cutler. After eight games of an almost nonexistent running game, there is no reason to believe the Bears can suddenly dominate the game on the ground against a Patrick Willis-led defense. It’s true that Cutler has struggled in two prime-time games this season, throwing a combined six interceptions at Green Bay and Atlanta, but he is still the Bears’ offensive MVP. In a time of crisis, you have to count on your top players. Or, at least, go down with them having every opportunity to right the ship.

Let’s circle back on these issues after the game.

Posted by ESPN.com’s Kevin Seifert

Just to make sure you saw the news, Detroit has named rookie Matthew Stafford its starting quarterback. I’ll be back later with more thorough analysis, but for now I’ll leave you with a few quick facts from Scott Beamon of ESPN Stats & Information:

• Houston’s David Carr was the last NFL quarterback taken No. 1 overall to start all 16 games of his rookie season. As the Lions’ Week 1 starter, Stafford obviously has a chance to do that. Incidentally, the Texans’ record in Carr’s first season (2002) was 4-12.
• The last four quarterbacks taken No. 1 overall -- Cincinnati’s Carson Palmer, the New York Giants’ Eli Manning, San Francisco’s Alex Smith and Oakland’s JaMarcus Russell -- all started their rookie years on the bench. Palmer sat all season. The other three combined to start 15 games, going 3-12. Collectively, they threw nine touchdown passes and 24 interceptions.

I’ll be back with more after we hear from Lions coach Jim Schwartz. I’m especially interested to know what impact Daunte Culpepper’s late-summer toe injury had on the decision.

Posted by ESPN.com's Kevin Seifert

	NFL.com Video
	Matthew Stafford and the Detroit Lions agreed on a contract Friday night.

DETROIT -- The Black and Blue blog has arrived in the Eastern time zone, and I'll be heading out to the Lions' facility shortly to be in place for the formal announcement of Matthew Stafford as the No. 1 overall pick. Hopefully I won't get stuck behind any of the Brinks trucks bringing Stafford's first paycheck to the building.

If you're inclined to have ESPNEWS running in the background, keep in mind we'll be starting the NFC North portion of the "On the Clock" series at 3 p.m. ET. I'll be jumping on to update the latest and greatest news from each division team.

Meanwhile, Don Banks of SI.com had a good early reaction to the Stafford contract: Despite the record-setting moolah, the Lions must be patient and let Stafford develop on the bench at least for one season.

Consider this list of the last five quarterbacks drafted No. 1 overall, as compiled by ESPN Stats & Information. The collective performances were hardly impressive and not necessarily a productive building block for future success:

Oakland's JaMarcus Russell (2007): 2 touchdowns, 4 interceptions
San Francisco's Alex Smith (2005): 1 touchdown, 11 interceptions
New York Giants' Eli Manning (2004): 6 touchdowns, 9 interceptions
Cincinnati's Carson Palmer (2003): Didn't play
Houston's David Carr (2002): 9 touchdowns, 15 interceptions

And finally, here is a trivia question to consider while you're waiting for this thing finally to get underway:

Name the last Georgia quarterback to appear in the Pro Bowl. (Hint: Think with your feet.)

	Joe Robbins/Getty Images
	Matthew Stafford is the top-rated QB prospect in the draft and the Lions need a franchise quarterback, but that doesn't mean Stafford is the best choice for Detroit.

Posted by ESPN.com's Kevin Seifert

Let's run through a logic exercise to help clarify the top of the NFL draft. Ready?

Quarterback is the most important position in football.

Detroit needs a quarterback. (And the Lions have needed one for about, oh, 50 years.)

The best quarterback in the draft is Georgia's Matthew Stafford.

The Lions have the No. 1 overall pick.

Stafford is the choice.

The path seems reasonable and straightforward, and yet similar logic trains have too often derailed. Recent history suggests that taking a quarterback with the top pick in the draft is at best a 50-50 proposition. And in fact, the habit of identifying a draft's best quarterback as the top player has hindered as many teams as it has rewarded.

	NFL.com Video
	An inside look at quarterback Matthew Stafford from Georgia.

The dynamic has particular applications for 2009. The Detroit Lions are unabashedly searching for a franchise quarterback, but Stafford's aptitude in that role remains a fierce debate with the draft 10 days away. Scouts Inc. rates him as the eighth-best prospect this year amid concerns about his accuracy and decision-making, and there are whispers that some teams favor USC quarterback Mark Sanchez instead.

Detroit officials are attempting to separate their evaluation of Stafford from their obvious need at the position, an impossible task for some teams who have been in a similar situation in recent years.

"We need to find a quarterback," new Lions coach Jim Schwartz said.

"I've been on the record saying a quarterback is the most important position on the team. But there are a lot of different ways to get that quarterback. Peyton Manning was drafted No. 1 overall. Kurt Warner, a Super Bowl champion, was an undrafted free agent. There's a lot of different ways to get that quarterback.

"You need to find that guy. There are a lot of different ways to skin that cat, though."

(Read full post)

	Allsport and Getty Images
	According to a formula measuring college performance, Matthew Stafford, right, scored between NFL first-round busts Akili Smith and Cade McNown.

Posted by ESPN.com's Kevin Seifert

The experts are hedging. The fans are sweating. The team is making clear it is considering all of its options.

There are 47 days remaining until the 2009 NFL draft, giving the Detroit Lions some 1,125 hours before they are required to make the No. 1 overall pick. The Lions might need every minute of that span, especially if their internal discussion at all reflects the raging public debate on Georgia quarterback Matthew Stafford.

A classically built, strong-armed quarterback, Stafford has not yet caught on as the consensus No. 1 pick. ESPN.com draft analyst Todd McShay, for example, said recently the Lions face a "nightmare" decision because Stafford is "not mentally ready" to take on the pressures of being the No. 1 overall pick. McShay said that scouts from at least 10 teams agreed with that assessment and added: "I just don't feel great about building my organization around him."

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NFL Network draft analyst Mike Mayock told a Detroit radio station that "there are some things about him that bother me," and even Stafford's biggest supporter advocates with a negative argument. Yes, Mel Kiper Jr. said the Lions should select Stafford primarily because "there is nobody else to take."

Even fans are getting into the act. On the day the Lions announced they were playing host to Baylor offensive tackle Jason Smith, Jim of Cincinnati wrote:

Matthew Stafford? Why are people thinking he is a good fit for an 0-16 team? I have seen Stafford play. He gets rattled easily. His arm is ok but his leadership skills lack. Next year they can get a much better QB. This year they need to fill in the holes on defense and on the line.

Why all of this generalist hate against Stafford, who by all accounts offers fine character as well as the draft's strongest arm?

Our friends at ESPN Research have developed a method for fleshing out the debate with statistical analysis. Using time-honored performance standards to predict future success for "blue-chip" quarterbacks, the formula placed Stafford between Akili Smith and Cade McNown in a category reserved for busts.

Does this mean Stafford is guaranteed to crash and burn? Of course not. But this evaluation documents in specific fashion the previously ill-defined criticisms of Stafford, helping to explain why there is so much disagreement about him with the draft little more than six weeks away.

The formula takes into account three statistics: Career starts, completion percentage and touchdown-interception ratio. The theory is that experience, accuracy and production versus mistakes can provide substantive indicators for college quarterbacks.

Formula Explanation ESPN Research developed this formula to measure quarterbacks relative to a baseline completion percentage of 60 and a touchdown-interception ratio of 2.25. The multipliers allow each figure to have equal weight with career starts, which provides an important measure of experience. The total score is the sum of the three adjusted figures. The separate parameters for BCS and non-BCS quarterbacks help level the statistical playing field. They are based on the assumption that NFL-caliber quarterbacks playing against non-BCS opponents are going to have inflated numbers.

For those mathematically inclined -- it took me 10 readings to get it after having nightmare flashbacks to eighth-grade algebra -- below is the formula itself. (Note: This is the updated, corrected version. The formula in the original post was incomplete. Thanks to SwampThing86 and a few others for the heads-up.)

For BCS quarterbacks
(Career Starts x 0.5) + [(Career completion pct. - 60)x5] +[(Career touchdown-INT ratio - 2.25)x10]

For non-BCS quarterbacks
(Career Starts x 0.5) + [(Career completion pct. - 60)x2.5] + [(Career touchdown-INT Ratio - 2.25)x5]

(For a complete explanation of the formula, see the text box on your right.)

To test the formula, ESPN Research plugged in the 31 quarterbacks taken in the first round over the past 12 drafts, dating back to 1997. The results are below.

You'll see the quarterbacks broken into three categories. If their college statistics translated into a value of 20 or more, there was a strong likelihood for success. (Alex Smith and Tim Couch notwithstanding.) A value between 1 and 19 essentially meant "iffy."

But the most revealing category were those quarterbacks who finished with a value of 0 or less. Every one of them failed as NFL quarterbacks. Take a look:

Scores of First-Round Quarterbacks, 1997-2008 Group I: Strong likelihood of success Player School Draft year Score Matt Leinart USC 2006 64.04 Philip Rivers NC State 2004 48.44 Tim Couch Kentucky 1999 47.64 Alex Smith Utah 2005 44.88 Aaron Rodgers California 2005 40.58 Peyton Manning Tennessee 1998 39.47 Jason Campbell Auburn 2005 38.75 Byron Leftwich Marshall 2003 36.39 Ben Roethlisberger Miami (Ohio) 2004 33.85 Chad Pennington Marshall 2000 33.53 Daunte Culpepper Central Florida 1999 30.00 David Carr Fresno State 2002 23.97 Joe Flacco Delaware 2008 23.92 Eli Manning Ole Miss 2004 23.14 Donovan McNabb Syracuse 1999 21.62 Group II: Hit-or-Miss Player School Draft year Score Brady Quinn Notre Dame 2007 18.93 JaMarcus Russell LSU 2007 18.64 Rex Grossman Florida 2003 18.39 Vince Young Texas 2006 18.21 Carson Palmer USC 2003 16.35 Matt Ryan Boston College 2008 9.14 Patrick Ramsey Tulane 2002 9.06 J.P. Losman Tulane 2004 7.86 Jay Cutler Vanderbilt 2006 2.39 Group III: Busts Player School Draft year Score Akili Smith Oregon 1999 0.00 Cade McNown UCLA 1999 -6.41 Joey Harrington Oregon 2002 -6.85 Michael Vick Virginia Tech 2001 -11.32 Ryan Leaf Washington St. 1998 -16.92 Jim Druckenmiller Virginia Tech 1997 -20.25 Kyle Boller California 2003 -50.67

Stafford scored a -4.45, putting him in unflattering surroundings to say the least. You never want to be on a list that includes Jim Druckenmiller and Akili Smith. Stafford's career completion percentage of 57.1 percent and his touchdown-interception ratio of 1.55 were primarily responsible for his poor showing. That left him rated well below USC quarterback Mark Sanchez and slightly behind Kansas State's Josh Freeman.

Scores for 2009 Likely First-Round Quarterbacks Player School Score Mark Sanchez USC 32.63 Josh Freeman Kansas State 1.94 Matthew Stafford Georgia -4.55

Stafford&#
39;s numbers were dragged down by a freshman season in which Stafford completed 52.7 percent of his passes and threw 13 interceptions against seven touchdowns.

When McShay, Mayock and Jim from Cincinnati express their concerns about Stafford, it's primarily for these reasons: College quarterbacks don't typically improve their accuracy in the NFL. If his decisions were at all suspect against SEC opponents, then it's reasonable to wonder how he will react to professional defenses.

Throw in the state of the Lions, who are coming off an 0-16 season and might feel pressure to start him immediately behind an offensive line that needs help, and you understand the genesis of the Stafford debate. Where will it lead? Luckily, we have 47 days to find out.

Posted by ESPN.com's Kevin Seifert

It didn't take long for some of you to dig up the answer to Wednesday's trivia question, which asked you to name the four players from the 2005 draft who still remain on their original NFC North roster.

In fact, bmhess06 posted the correct answer exactly 12 minutes after we hit the "publish" button:

1. Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers (1st round, No. 24 overall)
2. Green Bay safety Nick Collins (2nd round, No. 51 overall)
3. Chicago quarterback Kyle Orton (4th round, No. 106 overall)
4. Green Bay linebacker Brady Poppinga (4th round, No. 125 overall)

The other 26 players have either moved on or are free agents. (For you math majors, that translates to a 13 percent success rate.) The failure list includes a stunning four first-round picks and an eight of the first 58 players taken in the draft. The first-round picks:

• Chicago running back Cedric Benson (No. 4 overall)
  
• Minnesota receiver Troy Williamson (No. 7 overall)
  
• Detroit receiver Mike Williams (No. 10 overall)
  
• Minnesota defensive end Erasmus James (No. 18 overall)

Black and Blue teams weren't the only ones who swung and missed in the 2005 draft. San Francisco hasn't gotten much out of the No. 1 overall pick, Alex Smith. Tennessee slightly misjudged the character of cornerback Pacman Jones.

But when you consider the state of play last season in the NFC North -- its .390 winning percentage was the third-lowest among all divisions -- you have to attribute at least part of it to the 2005 draft.