NFC North: Andre Johnson

On Monday, we noted that Minnesota Vikings receiver Bernard Berrian took to Twitter in defense of his low production this season. When a follower told him he was "wide open at least 5 times," Berrian responded: "been like that the last 4 yrs."

[+] Enlarge
Bernard Berrian
Otto Greule Jr./Getty ImagesSince joining the Vikings in 2008, Bernard Berrian has caught roughly 50 percent of the passes thrown his way.
One of the fans who challenged Berrian on that point was a Minnesota state representative and a co-author of the team's stadium finance bill. That fact was dramatic but ultimately irrelevant. What concerned me was Berrian's implication that getting open is the extent of his job as a receiver, and beyond that, his production is in the hands of someone else -- presumably the quarterback or the play-caller.

So with help from several resources, I sought out some key facts that would help us understand whether Berrian is justified or if he needs to take more ownership for catching only two passes over the Vikings' first four games.

First, it should be noted that Berrian has been on the field more often than any Vikings wide receiver. According to Pro Football Focus, he has played on 182 of the Vikings' 248 snaps. Michael Jenkins is next with 175 plays, Percy Harvin has 141 and Devin Aromashodu has 36.

On those 182 plays, Berrian has been targeted on 13 passes. ESPN Stats & Information doesn't assign a target when one isn't clear, making its number different from press-box statistics that say Berrian has been targeted 15 targeted times. Regardless, Berrian has caught only two of the 13, or 15 percent.

The top NFL receivers typically catch between 60 and 70 percent of the passes thrown their way, according to a spreadsheet I viewed from ESPN Stats & Information. New England Patriots slot man, for example, Wes Welker has caught 70 percent this season. Houston Texans receiver Andre Johnson is at 71 percent. Steve Johnson of the Buffalo Bills is at 66 percent and the San Diego Chargers' Vincent Jackson is at 65 percent.

Admittedly, 13 targets on 182 plays is a very small number. There are 84 NFL players who have been targeted more than Berrian this season. But this is where his career history, at least with the Vikings, needs to be reviewed for context.

Katie Sharp of ESPN Stats & Information provided the following chart. It shows that in the four years Berrian was referring to, he's caught 52 percent of the passes thrown his way. Since the start of the 2010 season, that number is 45 percent.

There are many factors that go into how frequently a receiver should catch the passes thrown his way. Obviously, quarterback accuracy is one of them. So is the route a receiver is asked to run; a short route is more likely to be completed than one that takes a receiver 30 yards downfield.

But there are some factors that a receiver can control. Does he need the ball delivered precisely to his hands? How good is he at catching imperfect passes? Can he win a physical fight with the defender? To what extent can he twist his body or shield defenders or maintain control after a big hit?

All of these factors go into the pot when evaluating Berrian's past four years. He obviously hasn't gotten as many passes as he would have liked. But over that stretch, he's worked with four different veteran quarterbacks: Gus Frerotte, Tarvaris Jackson, Brett Favre and Donovan McNabb. Have they all inexplicably looked elsewhere when he Berrian was open, presuming he has been? Or did Berrian's extended history of catching about half of the passes thrown his way play a role in their (possibly subconscious) decision-making?

Berrian isn't totally at fault for his two-catch season. McNabb has under-and overthrown him on a number of occasions already. But I hope Berrian doesn't think that getting open is the sole factor in a quarterback throwing his way. That's only half of the battle, and perhaps Berrian hasn't won enough of the other half to justify additional attention. Just a thought.
Earlier Tuesday, we broke down the sizzling start of Detroit Lions receiver Calvin Johnson from multiple angles. At around the same time, ESPN analyst Cris Carter was updating his assessment of Johnson's standing in a mythical and irrelevant ranking of the NFL's top receivers.

Speaking on ESPN's radio's "Mike & Mike Radio Show," Carter said Johnson is "playing at a top-5 level" and added: "He's a phenomenal player." But it sounds as if Carter didn't go far enough for many of you, most notably Johnson's quarterback.

Carter said there are "really four elite wide receivers" in the NFL: Greg Jennings of the Green Bay Packers, Roddy White of the Atlanta Falcons, Larry Fitzgerald of the Arizona Cardinals and Andre Johnson of the Houston Texans.

Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford was either listening or told about Carter's comment. Stafford's first tweet in about a month went like this:
Does anyone think 8 tds in 4 weeks will change chris carters mind about an "elite" receiver? #megatron

Johnson, of course, has six touchdowns in the Lions' first three games, giving Stafford's tweet an edgy projection about the two he would need to score Sunday against the Dallas Cowboys. Stay tuned on that one.

I covered Carter at the end of his career with the Minnesota Vikings, and I can tell you he's not opposed to riling people up for the sake of riling people up. I don't doubt the sincerity of his viewpoint, but I'll say this: Y'all are letting old Cris get under your skin when the actual slight to Johnson is mild at best.

Carter paid plenty of homage to Johnson in his appearance Tuesday morning, saying: "Now, Calvin Johnson is playing the best football of his career. He's getting single coverage now and he's beating single coverage. They had double-coverage in the red zone. Him and Stafford have great chemistry together. He is playing at a top-5 level. But before this season, he wasn't better than the other four guys. He's starting to come into his own, which he should be. ... He should be coming into his prime and he's only going to get better. He's a phenomenal player."

You can listen to Carter yourself on this podcast . The Johnson segment begins at about the 17-minute mark.

And now back to our regular programming....
I know. I know. I KNOW. ESPN analyst and friend of the NFC North blog Cris Carter sent Detroit Lions fans into a rage Friday morning by omitting Calvin Johnson from his personal list of the NFL's best wide receivers.

You can listen to Carter's appearance on "Mike & Mike in the Morning" through this link . The receiver discussion begins at about the 16-minute mark.

[+] Enlarge
Calvin Johnson
Jim O'Connor/US PresswireWhere does Calvin Johnson rank among the league's elite receivers?
Carter put six players in his group of elites. In order, they were:
  1. Andre Johnson
  2. Larry Fitzgerald
  3. Greg Jennings
  4. Reggie Wayne
  5. DeSean Jackson
  6. Roddy White

When a listener suggested that Calvin Johnson should be ranked on par with Andre Johnson, Carter said: "The only thing they have the same is the name."

Carter went on to say: "Calvin Johnson, he's very, very good at Madden and Tecmo Bowl or whatever they're playing now. But on film, when I watch film, and I break down the film, he's not to the point of these guys yet. That doesn't mean he can't play. He just not there yet."

Carter also didn't accept co-host Mike Greenberg's suggestion that Johnson's career has been bogged down by poor and/or inconsistent quarterback play. Carter replied:
"... We're trying to determine greatness and impact on the NFL game. Calvin Johnson, you don't have to double-team him to take him out of the game. Now, I made eight Pro Bowls. I made it with five different quarterbacks. They weren't always great. So I don't want to hear the excuse that I'm not playing with a great quarterback.

"Larry Fitzgerald the last couple years, he hasn't played with a great quarterback, but he still gets the numbers. He still gets open. He still makes plays week in and week out. I don't want to hear about the quarterback situation. That's all part of the process. Now, [Calvin Johnson] is a good player. He's just not great yet."

I know these kinds of rankings spur debate and get everyone fired up, but you probably know by now how irrelevant I think they are. Everyone is entitled to an opinion, and Carter provided his -- forcefully as always. Is Calvin Johnson the best receiver in the NFL? No. Is he one of the best? Most people would say yes. Is he among the top six? Who cares?
Peterson/JohnsonUS PresswireAdrian Peterson and Calvin Johnson were the two NFC North players to crack the top 10 ranking of offensive players.
Ranking the NFL's top 10 offensive players required an exercise similar to last week's defensive players project: Melding a number of individual rankings into one coherent list. In the end, it left us with two NFC North representatives despite my efforts to make it three.

Minnesota Vikings tailback Adrian Peterson finished tied with Tennessee Titans tailback Chris Johnson for the No. 1 spot. Each received 70 points in our voting formula. Detroit Lions receiver Calvin Johnson finished No. 5, and Green Bay Packers receiver Greg Jennings garnered only one a vote (from me) on the way to a No. 18 finish.

A few notes from my perspective:
  • Some of you will note that Chris Johnson finished ahead of Peterson on the running backs ballot earlier this offseason (by one point). Remember, the criteria for the best running back and the best player aren't necessarily the same. Running ability is foremost in both, but receiving, blocking and other jobs play a larger role in the latter. Also, Johnson and Peterson were competing against players at other positions. Houston Texans receiver Andre Johnson, for example, received three No. 1 votes.
  • On the issue of Andre Johnson, I faced a quandary of consistency vs. accuracy. On our receivers ballot, I ranked Johnson No. 6. That was too low. So as you'll notice, I made a change for this ballot. I voted Johnson No. 4 overall, my second receiver behind the Arizona Cardinals' Larry Fitzgerald. Consider it a mea culpa if you want, but that should explain the inconsistency I'm sure you would have noticed and pointed out on your own.
  • My decision on Andre Johnson forced Calvin Johnson down the list. Calvin was now my No. 4 receiver, and I couldn't find room for a fourth receiver any higher than No. 8. You might argue that he deserved to be higher than Roddy White of the Atlanta Falcons, who I had at No. 7, but White's production has been far superior over the past four years. Over that stretch, White has 371 receptions. Johnson has 270.
  • I didn't have much hope that Jennings would crack the top 10, and my vote was totally biased. But the sentiment wasn't from a rooting interest. It was based on experience. I had the advantage of seeing Jennings play far more often in recent years than any of my fellow voters. And if I was given 10 slots to build an offensive team for 2011, I know I would get high production and character from Jennings.
  • For those wondering, yes, there were two offensive linemen on my ballot, left tackles Joe Thomas (Cleveland Browns) and Jake Long (Miami Dolphins). Offensive linemen, specifically left tackles, will be the subject of a future ballot. But suffice it to say, I value offensive linemen enough to put arguably the best two in the league on a top-10 ballot.
  • *UPDATE: This was made clear in Paul Kuharsky's main post, but this ballot intentionally omitted quarterbacks to avoid a quarterback-dominated ranking.
On Tuesday, ESPN.com's NFL Blog Network kicked off a series of offseason posts using our power rankings template on individual players and coaches rather than teams. The first topic was receiver, and NFC West guru Mike Sando has compiled the final list over on his blog.

You'll see that Andre Johnson of the Houston Texans finished first and that two NFC North receivers, the Detroit Lions' Calvin Johnson and the Green Bay Packers' Greg Jennings, finished fourth and sixth in the voting, respectively.

Regular readers know I don't take Power Rankings too seriously. They're just a fun debate starter and nothing more. My ballot is sure to draw some ire from the Texans' fan because I ranked Johnson No. 6, a position that in retrospect is probably low. But there is no taking it back, and the bottom line is a divisional blogger doesn't spread his focus equally among 32 teams.

In fact, thinking back, I believe I've seen one of Johnson's 115 NFL games in person. That game was nearly eight years ago in 2003. That doesn't mean I'm not aware of him and his production over the past seasons, but it hasn't registered with me to the extent of some other players I have seen more often.

For those interested, the ballot I submitted to Sando is below. From an NFC North perspective, I continue to cling to my choice of Johnson over Jennings in a battle that has no loser. I wonder if we'll ever see Johnson play a full season with a quarterback who performs at the level that Jennings now has three years with in Aaron Rodgers.
  1. Larry Fitzgerald
  2. Roddy White
  3. Reggie Wayne
  4. Calvin Johnson
  5. Greg Jennings
  6. Andre Johnson
  7. Wes Welker
  8. Brandon Marshall
  9. Santonio Holmes
  10. DeSean Jackson
PetersonMatt Stamey/US PresswireAdrian Peterson, one of three players in NFL history to rush for at least 1,300 yards and 10 TDs in each of his first three seasons, has two years remaining on his rookie contract.
Tennessee Titans running back Chris Johnson has three years left on his contract. He wants a new one. So does Houston Texans receiver Andre Johnson, whose deal doesn't expire until after the 2014 season.

They have been among the NFL's most productive players in recent seasons and consider themselves due for a raise. So why haven't we heard the same from the NFC North's top player?

Adrian Peterson is one of three players in NFL history to rush for at least 1,300 yards and at least 10 touchdowns in each of his first three seasons. He has two years remaining on the rookie contract he signed in 2007. Importantly, Peterson plays the most bruising position in the game, one that generally leads to a shorter career span and puts a premium on early contract extensions.

Whenever the Minnesota Vikings address this issue, it will prove exceptionally complicated and fraught with risk on both sides. At this point, it doesn't appear to be a priority. Perhaps preliminary talks have already begun, but I haven't sensed the type of urgency that has led to public flare-ups in Tennessee and Houston.

Among other reasons, Peterson is well-compensated relative to rookie contract scales. And the Vikings can't be eager to walk in what longtime contract negotiator Andrew Brandt has called a "graveyard" of failed contract extensions for elite running backs who can't sustain their early career production.

So as we twiddle our thumbs during a quiet time in the NFL offseason, let's consider the issues facing Peterson's future with the Vikings. (And no, none of them relate to the fact that he fumbles too much.)

Straight cash

[+] Enlarge
Johnson
Steve Dykes/US PresswireChris Johnson has skipped the Titans' voluntary OTAs so far and is hoping to get a new contract.
Chris Johnson, the No. 24 overall pick of the 2008 draft, is scheduled to earn $550,000 in 2010. He's already received $7 million in guarantees on a deal that would pay him a total of $12 million over five years. Andre Johnson, meanwhile, is locked in to a contract that will pay him an average of $7 million over the next five years. Elite receivers these days are making more than $10 million per season.

Peterson does not fall in the hardship category. He's already collected $17 million in guarantees and he should make close to $7 million in 2010 as a result of incentives. In 2011, his compensation will approach $10 million. That doesn't place him too far behind St. Louis running back Steven Jackson, whose 2008 extension carried a total of $20.5 million in guarantees and will pay him just over $6 million in base salary for 2010.

Certainly Peterson has not reached his financial ceiling. But because of his position in the 2007 draft (No. 7 overall) and some smart negotiating from agent Ben Dogra, Peterson's career has been fairly compensated thus far.

We'll get to this in more detail, but from the Vikings' point of view, you could make a convincing argument that they are better off paying Peterson $10 million in his fifth season and putting off the negotiations for his next deal until he is a relatively old 27.

(Read full post)

BACK TO TOP