NFC North: Ben Roethlisberger

Aaron Rodgers Jeff Hanisch/US PresswireGreen Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers is completing 71.7 percent of his passes and averaging more than 344 yards per game this season.
There is little doubt this year about the NFL's top-performing quarterback. Tim Tebow's 79-yard season has taken the league by storm and set a new standard for what a second-year quarterback ...

Whoops. Sorry.

No matter what metric you use, I think we can all agree that Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has had the NFL's best start to the season. He has produced the league's top passer rating, is atop the year's Total Quarterback Rating and is a fixture in the No. 1 slot of Mike Sando's MVP Watch over on the NFC West blog.

Around here, we've pretty much run out of ways to tell you all that. But after fiddling around with the excellent Pro Football Reference database, I stumbled onto a slightly different angle. (If you prefer to watch me tell you about it, rather than read any further, check out this week's NFC 411 video below.)

Rodgers has the NFL's top completion percentage (71.7) and is tied for the best average yards per attempt (9.6). Generally speaking, those two categories shouldn't fit together.

Yards per attempt is one way to measure downfield passing proficiency. Of course, several components go into yardage totals, including receivers' open-field running ability and the tackling skills of opponents. But the primary ingredient is the quarterback's success at pushing the ball down the field on passes that are relatively difficult to complete.

As a result, it's extraordinarily difficult to achieve a high completion percentage when you're consistently throwing lower-percentage passes. Consider Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, who last season had the NFL's No. 3 average per attempt (8.2) but its 15th-best completion percentage (61.7).

On the other hand, a high completion percentage can be associated with passes that are easier to complete. Checkdowns and other short passes result in a lower average per attempt. Case in point: New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees had the NFL's highest completion percentage (68.1) last season, but his 7.0-yard average per attempt tied for No. 16 overall.

That disparity should give you some context for what Rodgers has done this season. He's completing a higher percentage of his passes than any other quarterback even while piling up big yardage numbers with what should be lower-percentage throws downfield. He has been more efficient and proficient than any other NFL quarterback, an exceedingly tough combination to achieve.

How tough? Since 1960, only three quarterbacks have posted a completion percentage of 70 or higher and an average yards per attempt of 9.0 or higher in the first five games of the season. The details are in the first chart accompanying this post.

In the entire history of the NFL, only two quarterbacks have ever finished a season (defined as 400 or more throws) with similar numbers. Both of them, Sammy Baugh and Joe Montana, are in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. The second chart shows the top five combined performances in these two categories.

I hope you're with me on how rare and special that type of season is. NFL passing statistics tend to fall off as the weather turns, so we don't know whether Rodgers can or will maintain this pace. But he has a chance at putting together the kind of special season that surpasses what passer rating, QBR and even an MVP award could explain.

We're Black and Blue All Over:

I hope everyone had an outstanding weekend and is ready for a full week of NFC North bloggage. I know I am.

We start this week with Dan Pompei's look at the career arc of Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler this weekend in the Chicago Tribune. Pompei compared Cutler's career to 10 other established starting quarterbacks and found a few lessons to be learned.

Among them: Cutler's production matches up favorably, but his career winning percentage ranks last among the group in part because he's one of only two to change teams over his first five years. Pompei's conclusion: "The circumstances of Cutler's career make it difficult to judge him. We should find out if he has the fiber that made [Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben] Roethlisberger a champion in the coming seasons, assuming he continues to mesh with [offensive coordinator Mike] Martz and Bears receivers. Cutler has an excellent base to build on. If he has the will and stability around him, he still can become a premier quarterback."

Cutler's career certainly was sidetracked when he departed the Denver Broncos, a move he must share significant responsibility for. But he advanced to the playoffs for the first time in his career in 2010, and at age 28, it's too early to make any permanent career judgments.

Continuing around the NFC North:
If you follow Nick Collins on Twitter (@nickthepick36) or have read anything about him recently, you get a clear sense the Green Bay Packers safety doesn't feel appropriately recognized as one of the NFL's top players at his position. A three-time Pro Bowl player, Collins mostly sat alone during Super Bowl media sessions and recently groused about a low ranking in a list of the NFL's top 100 players.

"I don't appreciate, but I accept it," Collins told ESPNMilwaukee.com's Jason Wilde during one of those media sessions. "Like I said before, one day somebody will recognize that I'm a three-time Pro Bowler. But it's all good. I might need to change my image. I need to do something. But I'm me. I love what I do. So I'm going to stick to what I know and what I've had a lot of success doing."

As it turns out, all Collins had to do was return an interception for a touchdown in the Super Bowl. Collins, as you know, grabbed a pass from Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and returned it 37 yards for a touchdown in the first quarter of Super Bowl XLV.

A few months later, Collins received pretty much the highest ranking possible in ESPN.com's offseason positional rankings. Collins finished No. 3 behind the Steelers' Troy Polamalu and the Baltimore Ravens' Ed Reed. No one could find a reason to put Collins ahead of Polamalu or Reed, but half of our voters ranked him third and two more, including me, ranked him No. 4.

Overall, the safety rankings reflected our genuine uncertainty about a position that is generally judged by the absolute worse measurements possible: Interceptions and bone-jarring hits. Depending on the defensive scheme, safeties can be asked to fill dramatically different roles. Performing an amateur evaluation and ranking them accordingly proved pretty difficult, and I think that's why there was wide-spread discrepancies after Polamalu and Reed.

But in the end, at least in this case, Collins was appropriately recognized as one of the NFL's top safeties. Hopefully that counts for something.
You might have forgotten amid the NFL's labor chaos, but on a much quieter day last week I asked you for some help in this week's installment of the ESPN.com offseason positional Power Rankings. Namely: Where should I rank quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who solidified his status as an elite quarterback last season during the Green Bay Packers' run to Super Bowl XLV.

Your 791 comments were all over the map, but in the end I saw nothing to dissuade me from my original intent. I ranked Rodgers No. 2 behind Tom Brady of the New England Patriots. As it turns out, however, I was the only voter among our eight-man committee to do so. As we suspected he might, Rodgers finished fourth after Brady, Peyton Manning of the Indianapolis Colts and Drew Brees of the New Orleans Saints.

(NFC West colleague Mike Sando and Paul Kuharsky of the AFC South both ranked Rodgers No. 3.)

There is no doubt that Manning and Brees have produced success over a longer period of time than Rodgers. But their histories shouldn't be held against Rodgers in a ranking based on the present. Who would you want as your quarterback right now? When you peel away the weight of their longer careers, Rodgers compares favorably to both Manning and Brees.

Take a look at the chart accompanying this post. Rodgers has a higher career passer rating than either Manning or Brees. He's averaged more yards per attempt, a key and historic measurement of downfield success, has thrown about the same amount of touchdowns per attempt as Manning and has thrown fewer interceptions per attempt than either Manning or Brady.

Manning by far has a better regular-season winning percentage, but ultimately all three quarterbacks have one Super Bowl championship under their belt. (And only Rodgers has The Belt.)

Look, rankings of elite players are fun and silly but ultimately irrelevant offseason talk. If you gave me one quarterback to build my 2011 team around, I wouldn't complain about Brady, Rodgers, Manning or Brees. But if we have to choose, and in this case I did, there is substantial quantitative support for Rodgers to stand just behind Brady.

For the record, here is how I voted:
  1. Tom Brady
  2. Aaron Rodgers
  3. Peyton Manning
  4. Drew Brees
  5. Philip Rivers
  6. Ben Roethlisberger
  7. Michael Vick
  8. Matt Ryan
  9. Matt Schaub
  10. Josh Freeman

Myth and reality with Cam Newton

April, 1, 2011
4/01/11
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I've watched as the Cam Newton conversation has escalated and, most would say, devolved into personal attacks and accusations of racism. There's no doubt that any team deciding whether to draft the Auburn quarterback, including the Minnesota Vikings, has watched it unfold as well.

Character is subject to opinion, and it's fair to question the motives of someone making a harsh judgment. But ultimately, the entire conversation is relevant to the extent that it impacts Newton's performance on the field. So let's go there. What objective measures can we take of Newton's character and intangible abilities to be a quarterback?

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Cam Newton
Nelson Chenault/US PresswireNo one can deny that Cam Newton was a winner in college, as he led his teams to championships in both 2009 and 2010.
First, we have to remember that Newton was the quarterback on two different teams that won national championships. In 2009, he took Blinn (Texas) College to the NJCAA National Football Championship. This past season, he led Auburn to the BCS national championship.

It's possible that his personality has rubbed some people the wrong way, but to me, championships are the best tangible evidence of leadership we can find. You could argue that Newton's raw athletic ability simply overpowered opponents, but to me there is too much that goes into a college season to credit one supremely talented player for a title. Maybe in high school, and possibly junior college, but not at the level of the SEC.

I wasn't inside Auburn's locker room last season, or Blinn's the year before, but you would have to stack up a lot of hard evidence for me to convince me that Newton isn't a leader of some measure. If any specific examples have been cited, I've missed them.

Second, as you know, we here at ESPN.com get the enormous benefit of statistics that help us pull back the curtain on a player's performance. Everything must be taken in context, of course, but our friends at ESPN Stats & Information have circulated some information that reflects a higher level of so-called "football intelligence" than some of Newton's detractors might suggest.

For starters, Newton completed 73.5 percent of his passes last season against the blitz in conference games. He threw five touchdowns and did not throw an interception. For context, consider that Missouri's Blaine Gabbert, the other top quarterback in this draft, completed 44.8 percent of his passes in the same situation.

There are plenty of possible explanations for why Newton threw so efficiently against the blitz. His offensive line could have blocked exceptionally well. His scheme might have lent itself to friendly dump-off passes. But it could also be a hint -- gasp! -- of football intelligence, an ability to process a defensive alignment quickly and make a positive play based on a combination of instincts and scheme knowledge.

This much is clear: Generally speaking, the best quarterbacks in the NFL are usually the best at handling the blitz. In 2010, for example, here were the top seven NFL quarterbacks against the blitz based on passer rating:
  1. Tom Brady
  2. Tony Romo
  3. Aaron Rodgers
  4. Matt Cassel
  5. Josh Freeman
  6. Ben Roethlisberger
  7. Matt Ryan


Here's another measure we can consider: pocket passing. Someone (like me) who doesn't watch a ton of college football might have an impression of Newton as a freelancing athlete who prefers to run if given an opportunity. Similar quarterbacks rarely succeed in the NFL because of the complex passing decisions they'll ultimately have to make in a pro system.

So for what it's worth, Newton also outperformed Gabbert when it came to making traditional throws from the pocket. In conference games last season, Newton completed 67.6 percent of his pocket throws for 14 touchdowns and three interceptions. Gabbert completed 61.1 percent, with nine touchdowns and four interceptions.

I realize Newton and Gabbert played in much different schemes last season, making the comparison something less than apples to apples. But I still think it's instructive to compare Newton's pocket performance against the quarterback who seems to be considered the more "polished" player.

I have no idea what type of personality Newton has, whether he was well-liked by his teammates or if they simply tolerated him. And I also acknowledge that character, leadership qualities and football intelligence are critical to the success of an NFL quarterback.

But here we have a quarterback who has won consecutive national championships, who handled blitzes well against some of the fastest defenses in the country last season, and who was a better pocket passer than the presumptive top quarterback in the draft. Shouldn't we at least give that kind of resume the benefit of the doubt? It's not necessarily racist to question Newton on those qualities. It just doesn't fit the objective facts as we know them.

Related: NFC South colleague Pat Yasinskas writes that the Carolina Panthers should take Newton with the No. 1 overall pick.

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XLV: Packers move Woodson to tears

February, 7, 2011
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Charles WoodsonMatthew Emmons/US PresswireAn emotional Charles Woodson motivated his teammates at halftime, then raised the trophy.

ARLINGTON, Texas -- One look at the X-ray was all it took. Charles Woodson turned away and sobbed. The fracture in his left collarbone was clear as day. His season was done at halftime of Super Bowl XLV.

Woodson emerged this season as the Green Bay Packers' spiritual leader, and so through his tears he felt compelled to address his teammates before the third quarter began. He stood up and began to speak.

"I just asked the guys to understand how much I wanted it," Woodson said.

"That's all he could get out," linebacker Desmond Bishop said. "He was all choked up, and there was just something about it that motivated all of us."

After a season of navigating injuries by the dozen, the Packers plowed through their biggest challenge yet in taking a 31-25 victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowl XLV. They held off a Steelers offense that seemed set to capitalize on injuries to both Woodson and nickel back Sam Shields. Meanwhile, their offense survived the loss of receiver Donald Driver, an injury that sidetracked their plan to spread the Steelers' defense with their four- and five-receiver sets.

"We have a lot of practice at this type of situation," coach Mike McCarthy said. "And it definitely paid off. No one blinked. ... It was like a heavyweight fight. They had delivered a bunch of blows to us, and we had cut them. Good fighters and good boxers, they keep pounding away at the cut. We knew they would come after us.

"Sometimes it's not as clean as you want, but at the end of the day we're Super Bowl champions."

Indeed, the Packers made a habit of moving past seemingly debilitating injuries all season, beginning with the loss of tailback Ryan Grant in Week 1 and continuing until they had 15 players on injured reserve. Seven of the 22 players who started Sunday night were reserves when the season began. But this was the Super Bowl, and these were the Steelers -- the same team that lit them up for 503 passing yards against a similarly undermanned defense in 2009. You would be excused if you were having flashbacks to that game Sunday night. I know I was.

At the 2-minute warning of the first half, Shields departed with a shoulder injury. On the next play, Woodson broke the collarbone while diving for a pass deep down the left sideline. Suddenly, the Packers were using reserves Pat Lee at cornerback and Jarrett Bush in the nickel.

The Steelers didn't miss a beat, moving to a four-receiver set and driving 60 yards in four plays. They targeted Bush on Hines Ward's 8-yard touchdown reception, pulling within 21-10 at halftime, and you wondered how the Packers could stop them. On their opening drive of the third quarter, the Steelers needed only five plays to cut the deficit to 21-17.

Meanwhile, the Packers offense was struggling to find a rhythm after Driver's departure in the second quarter. They had jumped to leads of 14-0 and 21-3 thanks to a strategy we spent much of last week discussing; by spreading out the Steelers' defense, they were mitigating the effectiveness of outside linebackers Lamar Woodley and James Harrison.

According to receiver Greg Jennings, Driver offered his own words of encouragement after learning his fate at halftime. Two, to be exact.

"Just win."

All season, I've tried to bring you schematic explanations for what happened on the field during a game. But I don't have any for this evening. I don't think defensive coordinator Dom Capers made any dramatic adjustments while playing without Woodson and Shields for most of the second half. And McCarthy certainly stayed with his spread offense in the second half, even as his wide receivers finished with six drops.

On this night, the players who remained simply found a way to the endgame. They just won. Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger had a 118.0 passer rating after Woodson's departure, but cornerback Tramon Williams tipped away a fourth-down pass with 49 seconds remaining to seal the game. The Packers offense managed only 10 points after Driver's injury, but they played the entire game without a turnover and receiver Jordy Nelson filled the gaps with nine receptions for 140 yards.

"That's who we are," Bishop said. "And it's who we've been all season. If you're the next man up, you're expected to find your helmet and find a way."

Said Jennings: "This team had a certain dynamic that a lot of teams don't have. What separated us from the other 31 teams are the unity and the will to overcome adversity."

If I had to attribute that will to anything, I would put it on McCarthy's increasing bravado as the season continued on. McCarthy is a tough-talking Pittsburgh native behind closed doors, but publicly he has always tended to keep his comments even-keeled.

But beginning in Week 16, when the Packers started a six-game winning streak that culminated Sunday night, McCarthy began insisting they were a "championship-caliber team." McCarthy turned up the heat late last week, saying that Sunday "will be our night," and saved his best shot of adrenaline for Saturday night.

During a team meeting, McCarthy had players and coaches fitted for Super Bowl rings. It's a highly unusual move that served to enhance the Packers' confidence.

"Absolutely I did," McCarthy said. "No disrespect to the Steelers. We respect their football team. We respect the way they play. They're a good tough physical football team. But we fully expected to win this game. This is our time. We talked about it the first day we watched film [two weeks ago]. You could see the confidence building during the week."

Only a team fully convinced of its destiny and place in history could have persevered in such circumstances. By all rights, the healthier and more-experienced Steelers should have plowed to victory in this game. Simply put, the Packers willed themselves to their perch atop the NFL.

It was enough to make a grown man cry, which is exactly what Woodson seemed ready to do again as he spoken to reporters after the game.

"Just an unbelievable journey for this team," he said, finally. "Driver goes down, I go down, and just like all season, somebody stepped in and somebody stepped it up. I let all my emotions out at halftime. It broke me down. It was tough.

"But I'm champ. Nothing else matters."

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Final Word: Super Bowl XLV

February, 5, 2011
2/05/11
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» Super Bowl XLV Final Word: Steelers | Packers

Five nuggets of knowledge about Super Bowl XLV:

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Pete Rozelle and Vince Lombardi
AP PhotoCommissioner Pete Rozelle, left, presents the trophy to Green Bay coach Vince Lombardi after the Packers beat the Chiefs in the first Super Bowl.
The stakes: The Green Bay Packers' mantra the past few weeks has been to "bring the Lombardi Trophy home." The franchise won the first two Super Bowls in history, and the trophy was re-named in honor of coach Vince Lombardi when he died of cancer in 1970. Overall, the Packers will be seeking their fourth Super Bowl victory (in five appearances) and their 13th world championship dating back to 1929. Coach Mike McCarthy has invoked Lombardi often and recently said his favorite Lombardi maxim was the idea of "chasing perfection and catching excellence on the way." Here's a Lombardi quote that applies squarely to this game: "I firmly believe that any man's finest hour, the greatest fulfillment of all that he holds dear, is that moment when he has worked his heart out in a good cause and lies exhausted on the field of battle -- victorious."

Mobile QBs: Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers and Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger are two nimble and crafty scramblers who use their instincts to elude the rush and then take off faster than most defenses expect. Roethlisberger is bigger and more physical than Rodgers and has a better chance of muscling away from defensive linemen; Rodgers is quicker. Both will be facing top-ranked defenses and elite pass-rushers -- Steelers linebacker James Harrison has been especially vocal this week -- and their ability to buy extra time will be a crucial fulcrum of this game. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Roethlisberger has averaged 9.4 yards per scramble this season, including the playoffs. Rodgers has averaged 8.7 yards. They have five touchdowns between them on such runs.

Fast track: Over the past two weeks, we have discussed numerous angles of this game. You can access them through this handy "XLV" filter. But a few merit repeating. The first is the undeniable success over time the Packers' offense has had in indoor stadiums. As we noted, the Packers have used their speed and precision to average nearly 32 points in 12 such games since 2008, including playoffs. Rodgers has thrown 25 touchdown passes and six interceptions over that span, and the Packers are drawing deep confidence from their past performances. For what it's worth, the Steelers gave up 305 passing yards to New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees in their only indoor game during the regular season, a 20-10 loss.

Run discipline: Packers rookie running back James Starks has had one breakthrough game in the playoffs, rushing for 123 yards in the wild-card round against the Philadelphia Eagles, but his impact has extended beyond that. As we discussed last week, McCarthy has trusted Starks for 20 or more carries in each playoff game, an important factor in balancing the Packers' offense and ensuring the integrity of their play-action game. The Packers can win even if Starks doesn't reach a high yardage total, but their chances will decrease if his rushing attempts don't match his previous numbers.

The bottom line: We've spent all season trying to come up with facts and figures to analyze and foreshadow what might happen on game day. So as we approach the biggest and last game of the NFC North season, let's close with another Lombardi quote: "Football is blocking and tackling. Everything else is mythology."

BBAO: Clayton forecasts a shootout

February, 4, 2011
2/04/11
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We're Black and Blue all over:

Super Bowl XLV will feature the NFL's top two scoring defenses, but ESPN.com's John Clayton suggests the game will be a shootout. Odds makers have put the over/under at 44 points, and Clayton writes: "Take the over."

Based on the 2009 game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Green Bay Packers, which included 973 yards of offense and a 37-36 final, Clayton adds: "It's hard to imagine a low-scoring game."

As we noted Thursday, the Packers defense has made specific improvements to address the problems it experienced in that game. But I will say this: The best players often rise up and control the action of a Super Bowl. If two of the best players on the field are quarterbacks, as one might suggest with Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers, then perhaps we could be in for a high-scoring game after all.

Continuing around the NFC North as we clean out from another snowy evening here in the Dallas-Fort Worth area:
IRVING, Texas -- Ben Roethlisberger's well-chronicled off-field problems have put his every move under scrutiny as Super Bowl XLV approaches. TMZ, for instance, posted Internet video of the Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback singing at a local piano bar Tuesday night.

The paparazzi is going to have a tough time tracking down Roethlisberger's counterpart, Aaron Rodgers, this week in the Dallas-Forth Worth area. The Green Bay Packers quarterback, profiled this week by ESPN.com's Elizabeth Merrill, is a "homebody" who prefers not to be noticed when he leaves home or the team hotel.

Speaking Thursday at the Packers' final media availability of the week, Rodgers said: "I haven't been out carousing. I am a homebody so I've been spending a lot of time in my hotel room watching film. I think it is important at the same time that you are sticking with your normal routine. I like to go out to dinner when I'm back home in Green Bay so I've gone out to dinner, to a couple of really nice spots, and then come home, relax and watch film."

XLV: The difference a year makes

February, 3, 2011
2/03/11
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IRVING, Texas -- Five hundred and three. That's a "5" at the beginning, a "3" at the end and a "0" in the middle.

503.

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger threw for 503 yards in one game last season against the Green Bay Packers, the most by an opposing quarterback in their 91-year history.

503.

The total fell 24 yards short of the NFL record set 20 years ago by Warren Moon.

"It was a disaster," Packers cornerback Tramon Williams said Thursday.

What happened in that game? How did Roethlisberger put together one of the most productive games in NFL history? And why are the Packers so confident they are better equipped to defend him in Super Bowl XLV?

As usual, I have a few thoughts.

In speaking to Packers players and coaches this week, it seems clear they believe two factors were behind the onslaught. One was a perceived unfamiliarity with the still-new defense that coordinator Dom Capers was installing, leading to a vanilla game plan. The second was a series of personnel issues that left the Packers reaching deep into their roster for healthy defensive backs.

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Mike Wallace
AP Photo/Gene PuskarMike Wallace hauled in two TDs against the Packers in Week 15 last season, including a 60-yarder on the Steelers' first play from scrimmage.
On the Steelers' first play from scrimmage in that game, Roethlisberger threw a 60-yard touchdown pass to receiver Mike Wallace. Defending on the play was nickelback Jarrett Bush, who made a poor adjustment as Wallace gathered in an underthrown pass.

And on their final play from scrimmage, Roethlisberger threw a 19-yard touchdown pass to Wallace. On that play, dime back Josh Bell was matched up in single coverage.

Bush and Bell were on the field only because of injuries to players who began the year ahead of them on the depth chart. Capers seemed to be protecting them for much of the game by limiting his normally thick playbook. Roethlisberger used his innate pocket elusiveness to buy more than enough time for his receivers to get open. The Packers estimate they missed at least five potential sacks in the game.

"My recollection was we didn't do much," cornerback Charles Woodson said. "We called maybe a few calls in that game. The few calls we made, we dropped a lot of those calls and dropped our coverages. We had opportunities on Ben to get him sacked and we couldn't get him down, and then he made some plays with his feet. He got the ball down to his receivers. That day, it seemed like we couldn't do anything right and we hope that won't happen again."

Sunday, the Packers will start three Pro Bowl players in their secondary: Woodson, Williams and safety Nick Collins. Rookie Sam Shields has locked down the nickel job; he and Williams have combined for five interceptions in the postseason. As we've discussed, Capers has unleashed his full repertoire of late.

"I think just understanding the defense better [has helped]," Woodson said. "And [also] the speed at which the young guys like Sam and Tramon have picked up the game has made it a lot better as far as corners are concerned. ... You just have guys up there who are communicating well and playing at a fast level because they understand the defense. We got guys who can make plays out there and have very good ball skills. That's why we're playing at a high level."

The Steelers won that game 37-36, but this season the Packers allowed the second-fewest points in the NFL. Opponents have scored more than 20 points in only five of the Packers' 19 games.

"I just think we've grown up from last year," linebacker Clay Matthews said. "We have a young team, same nucleus, same players. But we're playing some good ball. It's our second year in this scheme, and Dom really understands the strengths and weaknesses of each player and where to put him at times. We've been playing some real good ball and it's only fitting that we would be in this position."

BBAO: Erik Walden to 'give it a go'

February, 2, 2011
2/02/11
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We're Black and Blue All Over:

When they finally get down to conducting a Super Bowl practice Wednesday, the Green Bay Packers will have one big personnel question: Who will start at left outside linebacker in Super Bowl XLV?

The top two candidates -- Erik Walden and Frank Zombo -- are recovering from ankle and knee injuries, respectively. Walden is the Packers' first choice, but he hasn't practiced since suffering his injury in the NFC Championship Game.

Walden said he plans to "give it a go" in practice Wednesday, according to Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. His status isn't likely to be determined until the end of the week at the earliest. Zombo, meanwhile, returned to practice last week but hasn't played in nearly two months.

Continuing around the NFC North:
  • Packers linebacker A.J. Hawk made more big plays than you might realize this season, writes Rob Demovsky of the Green Bay Press-Gazette.
  • Packers general manager Ted Thompson was literally standing behind a fence while speaking with reporters on Super Bowl media day, notes Jason Wilde of ESPNMilwaukee.com.
  • John McClain of the Houston Chronicle examines the Houston Texans' decision to waive then-rookie cornerback Tramon Williams in training camp in 2006.
  • Mike Eayrs is an interesting man behind the scenes for the Packers, according to the Associated Press.
  • Missed this earlier in the week: Tom Kowalski of Mlive.com addresses a number of Detroit Lions questions, including whether Texas A&M linebacker Von Miller might be a good fit for the team.
  • Minnesota Vikings defensive end Everson Griffen won't face felony battery charges are as result of his arrest in Los Angeles last week, according to Judd Zulgad of the Star Tribune.
  • Vikings defensive backs coach Joe Woods interviewed for the Philadelphia Eagles' vacant defensive coordinator job, notes Les Bowen of the Philadelphia Daily News.
  • Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger offered advice to embattled Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler. Roethlisberger, via Jeff Dickerson of ESPNChicago.com: "Well I don't know Jay very well but I would just tell him to just keep your head up. You know your body, you know what you're going through, you know all those things. People are going to attack you for whatever reason if he's hurt or not. I think he just needs to keep his head up and stay focused on what he needs to do to get healthy and get ready for another season because that's all he can do is to get ready for the next day and the next season."
  • Cutler would have struggled at media day had the Bears advanced to the Super Bowl, writes Sean Jensen of the Chicago Sun-Times.

BBAO: A rough day for Zack Follett

January, 26, 2011
1/26/11
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We're Black and Blue All Over:

Detroit Lions linebacker Zack Follett had an interesting day Tuesday. It started with a radio interview that went awry and ended with a video that, well, explains it all.

To review: Follett referred to Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford as a "china doll" while speaking with a Fresno, Calif., radio station. He immediately backtracked and apologized in multiple venues, and later posted an intense video to expand his thoughts Tuesday night. I essentially wrote off most of his comments as those of a "(lovable) nut case unintentionally veering into sensitive territory," and I think you'll understand what I mean if you watch the video.

Follett has yet to re-address the much harsher comments he made in discussing the departure of Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler from the NFC Championship Game. In the end, I think they will have more staying power than anything he said about Stafford.

Continuing around the NFC North:
  • Tom Kowalski of Mlive.com responds to Follett's video.
  • Drew Sharp of the Detroit Free Press: "The issue isn't what a lightly regarded seventh-round draft pick thinks of Matthew Stafford's durability. It's whether Zack Follett let something slip during a Tuesday radio interview that more influential voices have discussed privately in Allen Park. The Lions should worry whether they have a 'china doll' at quarterback. And I have a hard time believing Follett's usage of the term during an interview in Fresno, Calif., represents the only such opinion within the organization."
  • Lance Allan of WTMJ-4 believes the Green Bay Packers need to reverse their plan for the team photo at Super Bowl XLV: "During the lull before Super Bowl week, I'll admit that there are a lot of stories that are trumped up and hype because there isn't a lot to talk about. But this is legitimate, and for a Packers organization that usually handles things the right way, they should correct a mistake."
  • The Packers took a harder-than-expected road to the Super Bowl, writes Jason Wilde of ESPNMilwaukee.com.
  • Mike Vandermause of the Green Bay Press-Gazette: "If the Packers beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Super Bowl, the next most obvious question should be: When will [coach Mike] McCarthy get a street named after him?"
  • Sacking Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is difficult, writes Lori Nickel of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
  • Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers believes the new helmet he switched to prevented a concussion after a hit from Bears defensive end Julius Peppers last Sunday. Rodgers, via Peter King of Sports Illustrated: "That was lucky. As much as the new helmet feels uncomfortable and I'm still getting used to it, I'm really happy I was wearing it on that hit.''
  • There's no reason to expect Bears offensive coordinator Mike Martz to give up on Cutler, writes Neil Hayes of the Chicago Sun-Times.
  • Michael C. Wright of ESPNChicago.com wonders what fair-market value will be for the pending contract extension of Bears coach Lovie Smith.
  • The Bears could have 16 free agents this offseason depending on how negotiations go for the collective bargaining agreement, notes Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune.
  • Tom Pelissero of 1500.com offers a season review of the Minnesota Vikings' defense.
  • The Vikings are interested in CFL defensive end Phillip Burke, writes Adam Caplan of Fox Sports.
Aaron RodgersKevin C. Cox/Getty ImagesAaron Rodgers completed 31 of 36 passes for 366 yards and three touchdowns against Atlanta.
ATLANTA -- The usual chatter has already emerged, reflecting a tired and clichéd story line for people who either don't trust their eyes or need a trip to their local Lens Crafters. It goes something like this: Aaron Rodgers silenced the critics Saturday night, putting himself in the upper echelon of NFL quarterbacks with a masterful performance in the Green Bay Packers' 48-21 rout of the Atlanta Falcons.

Come on.

Those of us who have been watching Rodgers play the past three seasons know he long ago ascended to those heights. If anything, this silly discussion of Rodgers' standing among his contemporaries will cloud the reality of what happened at the Georgia Dome.

If you want to debate whether or not Rodgers is now among an irrelevant grouping of the NFL's top quarterbacks, then go ahead. The larger point is this: Rodgers put the Packers within a game of the Super Bowl with one of the best postseason performances in a generation.

In leading the Packers to a rout of the NFC's top seed, Rodgers completed 31 of 36 passes for 366 yards. Some details:
  • He completed all 10 of his attempts on third down.
  • His 86.1 completion percentage ranks fifth-best in postseason history.
  • He is one of 15 quarterbacks to complete at least 31 passes and one of 21 to have thrown for at least 366 yards in a playoff game.

"Aaron was unbelievable and our whole offense was unbelievable," Packers defensive end Ryan Pickett said. "They're playing great at the right time of the year. They're clicking on all cylinders. That's going to make it tough for somebody to beat us."

More than anything, that's what I took from Saturday night's game. It doesn't matter to me whether or not Rodgers now stands on a mythical stage with Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and maybe Ben Roethlisberger. What's important is that Rodgers is providing the Packers both the opportunity and the bravado necessary to win the Super Bowl.

"When our big dog is rolling," said receiver Donald Driver, "the rest of us just roll behind. When he's playing the way he played tonight, no one can stop us. We know that now. We know it. ... We've got the swagger going now. We don't know where we're playing. But whoever we're playing, they better be ready."

We'll find out Sunday whether the Packers will play the Chicago Bears or the Seattle Seahawks in the NFC Championship Game. Regardless of the opponent, the Packers know they have the single-most important ingredient to a championship team: An elite-level quarterback who has elevated his game at the time when it matters most.

Rodgers has a 134.3 passer rating in the 2010 postseason, having thrown six touchdowns and, according to ESPN Stats & Information, completing 33 of 38 passes against four or fewer pass rushers.

Against the Falcons, Rodgers led the Packers on four scoring drives of at least 80 yards, including two that answered early Atlanta touchdowns. He completed 11 of 12 passes that traveled at least 11 yards downfield, and by my count, he spun away from four potential sacks with mobility that continues to surprise opponents.

"He was on fire," coach Mike McCarthy said. Rodgers referred to it as a "special night" and added: "The way I prepare, the way our coaches prepare, we expect to play well. Maybe not this well. But it was one of those nights when, where things weren't working, when things weren't open, I was able to move in the pocket and avoid some of those free [blitzers] and make plays. So it was just a special night."

Rodgers joked that he was able to use the eyes in the back of his head to evade a few of those blitzers, including Falcons sack leader John Abraham on two plays. But I think we can chalk it up to a quarterback finding the kind of elite zone that simply isn't reached that often, the kind that led Phil Simms to complete 22 of 25 passes for the New York Giants in Super Bowl XXI, or the one that led Joe Montana to take the San Francisco 49ers downfield for a game-winning pass to John Taylor in Super Bowl XXIII, for instance.

Rodgers said he thought the performance ranked "in the top three or four" of his career. He cited a game at Cal in which he completed 23 consecutive passes (a 2004 loss to USC), among others. Well, sorry. No college game compares with the pressure of starting in the NFL playoffs in the building of your conference's top seed.

In 18 of the past 20 seasons, the NFC's No. 1 seed has won in the division round. The league's seeding usually makes it a good bet, but the Packers are not the typical opponent a No. 1 seed faces in this round. You could poke some holes in their special teams, and perhaps in the consistency of their running game. During the regular season, their offense had some struggles.

But the team we saw Saturday night has every right to expect a Super Bowl championship. Moving through the post-game locker room, I heard several players marveling about Rodgers' final numbers, even those who have played next to him for multiple years.

"The man is awesome," Driver said.

"When he has time, it's almost like they can't stop us," said guard Josh Sitton.

"We're a championship-caliber football team," McCarthy said.

Without Rodgers, they wouldn't be.

That's what's important.

NFC North weekend mailbag

May, 22, 2010
5/22/10
11:00
AM ET
I've got a couple of housekeeping items before we delve into the weekend mailbag.

First, hopefully most of you have already re-set bookmarks that expired this week. An old re-direct was retired and will no longer take you from the original URL of this blog to the current one. Here's what you should now be using: http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcnorth.

That change apparently caused another problem. If you're like me and use RSS feeds, you know they stopped working this week. All you have to do is re-subscribe and you should be good to go. Let me know if you're not -- either through the mailbag, Facebook or Twitter. Sorry for the inconvenience.

Onward ...

Steve of Centreville, Va., writes: Outside of not having the luxury boxes and big ticket seating, what exactly is wrong with the Metrodome as far as the fan experience? The Vikings have trouble selling out the seats anyway, so a bigger stadium doesn't seem necessary. I do realize it's considered substandard for players.

Kevin Seifert: That's a question many interested parties are asking, and it's one of several reasons there hasn't been much progress in the 10-plus years the Vikings have been seeking a new stadium. (It wasn't much of a question for the Minnesota Twins, of course. No one considered the Metrodome a good place to see a baseball game. Except ombrophobes.)

Although I've heard plenty of complaints about the narrow concourses and long rows of seats, the primary impetus for building a new stadium would be for team economics -- not fan experience. As a place to watch a football game, the Metrodome isn't yet obsolete. Perhaps that's why cross-sections of Minnesotans remain staunchly opposed to using public money for this project.

Just last week, Minnesota Public Radio and the Humphrey Institute conducted a poll of 701 Minnesota residents. Nearly two-thirds opposed public funding. About 30 percent supported it.

Significant opposition is nothing new in stadium debates around the country. But this helps explain why no leading politicians have been willing to step in front of the issue. There's absolutely no mandate from their constituents to do it.

I'm sure many people would choose a newer stadium over an older one. But do they feel strongly enough to dedicate their tax money to that ideal? At this point, the answer is no.


On the Gale Sayers-Brian Urlacher feud, Patrick of Indianapolis writes: I think you're missing the point here. It's not about Gale not being allowed to express his opinions or question the direction of his former club. He's just doing it six months too late.

Last season was a train-wreck. Cutler needs to play better. We shouldn't have mortgaged the team with the draft pick trades. Gaines Adams' death marked another fruitless trade. Urlacher's getting older. These are all things that are relevant issues that the Bears face, but are also ones for which blame was placed a half-year ago. There's nothing you can do about any of them in May besides work hard in the offseason and prepare for the next season. The issue isn't Gale Sayers running his mouth. ... The problem is that he's doing it months too late and the comments bring no sort of benefit or insight to anyone.

Kevin Seifert: You're right in a sense, Patrick. For the most part, Sayers stated the obvious. But I disagree on the timing issue.

First, I wouldn't assume that Sayers targeted the month of May to spark a public feud. He was asked a question after a public appearance and answered it honestly. His opinion clearly hadn't changed after the Bears' free-agent bonanza and he let it be known.

Second, I think Sayers added to this conversation because of the inherent credibility of his words. Say what you want about his injury-shortened career. Sayers is in the Hall of Fame, which means he is one of the best players in the history of the game.

It's one thing for a group of fans or some two-bit blogger to analyze the team. But when someone with Sayers' credentials does so, it carries more weight. To me, hearing Gale Sayers point out the Bears' flaws crystallized their legitimacy. Facts are facts: The Bears are a team with some obstacles left to be hurdled before they can contend for the NFC North title.


Nathan of Kaiserslautern writes: THANK YOU for the Hall of Justice flashback!!

Kevin Seifert: The most powerful forces of good ever assembled!


Richard of New Orleans writes: This is a pet peeve of mine -- the claim that lists Aaron Rodgers as a top-3 QB. I've seen Ben Roethlisberger listed as a top-5 QB. Whenever I see a claim of this sort, I always would like to ask them to list the Top X QB's. Rodgers, right now, is not a better QB than Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, or Brett Favre. The claim of Rodgers being top-3 is absurd. ... I don't think this claim is defensible.

Kevin Seifert: "Absurd" might be a bit strong, but I wouldn't put Rodgers ahead of Brees, Manning, Brady or Favre based on last season, either. But at this time next year, we could easily be singing a different tune.

In reality, however, these distinctions are arbitrary. Frankly, it makes more sense to gather all of the game's best quarterbacks into one "elite" category than come up with a random number that requires artificial inclusion or exclusion. If we wanted to come up with an "elite" grouping of quarterbacks, I would include these names:
  1. Drew Brees
  2. Peyton Manning
  3. Brett Favre
  4. Tom Brady
  5. Aaron Rodgers
  6. Philip Rivers
  7. Ben Roethlisberger

Call it a top-7.


Brandon of Detroit, Mich. writes: I really am pulling for the Lions to do well. Why does it seem every year we replace our secondary and the same bad results happen to them year after year? It befuddles me.

Kevin Seifert: It's just a consequence of years of bad drafting. Rarely can a team make simultaneous upgrades at multiple spots within a position group. There are no shortcuts, for the most part. You have to build depth over time.

The Lions have started over so often at cornerback and safety because they failed so frequently to identify and develop long-term starters. With history as our guide, I think we can say the Lions' secondary is going to be limited this season at well.

The one bright spot: they have planted a foundation with safety Louis Delmas, who is on my list as a possible 2010 NFC North breakout player. That leaves three positions left to fill -- a tough task, but still better than the usual four the Lions are dealing with. Perhaps third-round cornerback Amari Spievey can be another building block.

A measured response in Green Bay

March, 23, 2010
3/23/10
1:30
PM ET
Larry FitzgeraldAP Photo/Ross D. FranklinThe Packers gave up 375 passing yards in a wild-card playoff loss to the Arizona Cardinals, but don't expect an offseason makeover of the secondary in Green Bay.
ORLANDO, Fla. -- The numbers and images are seared into the brain of everyone who played, watched or endured them:

  • 88
  • 847
  • 8

Those figures represent the number of points, net passing yards and touchdown passes Green Bay gave up in two memorable shootouts during a four-week span last season. Both were losses, and one -- a 51-45 wild-card playoff defeat at Arizona -- ended Green Bay's year. So as I reviewed the Packers' offseason activity en route to the NFL owners meetings, one question kept recurring: What have they done to address those defensive collapses?

Green Bay has made substantial commitments to keep its roster intact, from re-signing nose tackle Ryan Pickett to extending the contract of Pro Bowl safety Nick Collins. I believe those moves were preferable to the alternative. And it should be no surprise that Packers general manager Ted Thompson chose that route over adding veteran free agents from the outside.

But with the Packers' personnel largely unchanged, I think it's fair to ask how the Packers plan to fix the problems that arose against the Cardinals in the playoffs and in Week 15 at Pittsburgh. In speaking with Thompson and coach Mike McCarthy, it seems clear the Packers won't overreact to the events in 2/17ths of their games. They are counting on the return of some players who were injured and thus unavailable to play against the Steelers and Cardinals, and they are planning some practice changes they hope will address the roots of the poor play.

But if you were expecting a dramatic scheme adjustment or hoping for an infusion of experienced personnel, I'm sorry. It's not going to happen.

"We went through all of the specifics with the coaches and they do all of their evaluations of what happened here and what happened there," Thompson said. "At the end of the day, we did get in a couple shootouts. On the good side, we had the kind of offense that could stay with the other team in a shootout, and it really was 50-50 who was going to win the game at the end in both of those games.

"But I don't think you can necessarily discount the fact that we played really good pass defense and overall defense in most other games. There are things that happen during the course of a game, you get off on the wrong foot, especially towards the end of a season, [and] you're playing guys in sub packages that weren't on your team to start the season.

"I'm not trying to make excuses. ... There just becomes a wearing away of the quality you put on the field."

Thompson's response covered two of our three primary points. By the time they arrived Dec. 20 in Pittsburgh, the Packers had lost three cornerbacks they were counting on to play significantly at that point: Starter Al Harris and reserves Will Blackmon and Pat Lee. Blackmon and Lee should be ready for the start of training camp, while Harris could also return then or shortly thereafter.

There is also a high likelihood the Packers will prioritize cornerback and safety depth in next month's draft, perhaps with the No. 23 overall pick.

It is also accurate to say Green Bay's pass defense played much better in its other 15 games than it did against the Steelers and Cardinals. The only other quarterback who hurt them over that span was Minnesota's Brett Favre, who threw seven touchdown passes in two games against them.

To illustrate the dichotomy, check out the chart below. It compares the Packers' pass defense against Arizona, Pittsburgh and the rest of its schedule.


You can't discount those numbers, and I think the Packers can use them to make a decent case for fine-tuning their fix rather than overhauling personnel or their schematic approach. I've written that there's no shame in giving up yards to elite quarterbacks like Favre, Kurt Warner and Ben Roethlisberger. But it's only fair to add this caveat: You're far more likely to face elite quarterbacks in the playoffs, and you'll need to at least slow them if you want to advance.

So what will the Packers do? McCarthy said pass defense will be an offseason "emphasis" and plans to present defensive players with two priorities during the offseason: improving their tackling and handling adversity.

Without a doubt, the Packers exacerbated their coverage problems against the Cardinals by allowing receivers to extend their yardage after the catch. That was especially true on touchdown passes to receivers Larry Fitzgerald and Early Doucet.

McCarthy stopped short of saying he will conduct live tackling drills during training camp but said: "There are some things we can do to improve that in our drill work, and that's what will be done."

Improving reactions to adversity is a less tangible task. McCarthy's plan is to increase the amount of game situations he presents in practice -- for example, presenting a difficult down-and-distance during 11-on-11 drills -- to cultivate a bigger comfort zone in stressful environments.

In theory, the emphasis would help the two-minute defense that collapsed in the final minutes at Pittsburgh, culminating in Roethlisberger's game-winning 19-yard touchdown pass on the final play.

"There are aspects that we're going to try to improve upon," McCarthy said. "... The productivity we had throughout the defense was a vast improvement over what we've done in the past, but those are two areas we're going to really emphasize. ... You'll see some drills and things, situations and an emphasis that will be applied to highlight the defense."

Will it be enough? There is a fine line between an aggressive fix and avoiding overreaction. The Packers are leaning toward the latter.
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