ESPN NFL

A committee of ESPN experts -- including Trent Dilfer, Mel Kiper, Gary Horton, Matt Williamson -- assembled this offseason to create a unique version of our traditional Power Rankings.

Naturally, NFC North teams are featured prominently in what amounts to a three-year projection of Power Rankings for the 2015 season . The Green Bay Packers received the top spot as the team best equipped to compete three years from now, while the Detroit Lions were not far behind at No. 6.

The file requires an Insider subscription to read in full, but I can pass along where our four teams ranked and also a glimpse at the methodology used. Here is how the committee evaluated each team and the degree of impact each category had:

• Roster (32.5 percent of total score): Players under 30 emphasized
• Coaching (20 percent): Capability and stability of current staff
• Quarterback (17.5 percent): Where quarterback play would be in three years
• Draft (15 percent): Based on team's 2012 class and how many picks available in next three years.
• Front office (15 percent): Ability to manage roster and market's attraction to free agents.

Now on to the NFC North rankings with comments from me:

1. Green Bay Packers
Seifert comment: The presence of a 28-year-old MVP quarterback and one of the NFL's top general manager-coach combinations puts the Packers on an ideal long-term path.

6. Detroit Lions
Seifert comment: Quarterback Matthew Stafford had a 5,000-yard season before his 24th birthday. That's a nice start. General manager Martin Mayhew has elevated the team's talent level every season of his tenure and most of the Lions' key players -- Stafford, receiver Calvin Johnson, tight end Brandon Pettigrew, defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, safety Louis Delmas and linebacker Stephen Tulloch -- are under 30.

17. Chicago Bears
Seifert comment: Jay Cutler is a legitimate franchise quarterback, but the best players on the Bears' defense are all over 30. That list includes defensive end Julius Peppers, linebackers Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs, and cornerback Charles Tillman.

31. Minnesota Vikings
Seifert comment: Questions about quarterback Christian Ponder's long-term prospects made it difficult for the committee to project future success. There are also concerns about a lack of young impact players on defense. Defensive end Jared Allen is 30 and linebacker Chad Greenway is 29.

There's always something these days. The week after the draft is typically deep-breath time for the NFL, but the events of this week had us running hither and thither on the NFC North blog. Through it all, I saw everything you've submitted via the mailbag, Twitter and Facebook and tried to respond when possible. Another attempt forthcoming:

Brian of Minneapolis has watched the NFL issue severe punishments following its investigation into the New Orleans Saints' bounty program and can't reconcile them with relatively light in-game punishment in issues of player safety: My frustration as a fan is seeing the referees on game day powerless to enforce penalties beyond the standard 15-yard penalty for repeat offenders. Fines may come later, but I don't see the behavior deterred on game day. What if the NFL adopted a rule mandating an ejection for two unnecessary roughness or unsportsmanlike conduct penalties in a game?

Kevin Seifert: As Brian pointed out later in his note, there is sports precedent for progressive in-game penalties, including the "persistent infringement" aspect of soccer. (Yes, I'm sure there are many of you who would protest using "football" and "soccer" in the same sentence, but that's for another day.)

Normally I would say there would be little chance for such a dramatic change to the NFL's in-game rules. Referees have the authority to eject a player on a first offense if it is egregious enough, but what Brian is referring to is deterring standard roughness or unsportsmanlike infractions by elevating the punishments within a game.

Given how focused NFL commissioner Roger Goodell appears to be on the player-safety issue, however, I couldn't rule out this type of change in coming years. In essence, if this kind of rule were enacted, a player could be ejected after hitting a player out of bounds and then roughing the punter.

Many of us would cry foul at another attempt to reduce the violence of an inherently violent game, but we've already seen Goodell act repeatedly with no concern for that argument. Who knows what's next?

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Serge of Windsor saw our post on the Detroit Lions' offense and writes: I think [rookie receiver] Ryan Broyles will have a significant impact on the Lions' offensive explosive capability. The Lions already have a couple deep threats in Calvin Johnson and Titus Young … however, their impact was negated through double teams in deep cover 2 schemes. What has been missing -- sorry, while Nate Burleson is a class act and a great influence in the locker room, he has been very average on the field -- and what the Lions see in Broyles, is a receiver that is able to punish a defense for playing such schemes by finding windows underneath and gaining yards after the catch. In theory, this will eventually force defenses out of such schemes and open up deep opportunities for Calvin Johnson and Titus Young to make explosive plays downfield.

Kevin Seifert: Interesting theory, Serge, especially if Broyles turns out to be the kind of open-field runner that draft evaluators believe he is. He does appear to have all the skills necessary to be a front-line slot receiver.

But I'm not convinced defenses will deprioritize deep coverage, especially against Johnson, if the Lions have stronger weapons underneath. Johnson is going to draw maximum attention as often as defenses can arrange for it. I don't think a slot receiver, no matter how talented he is, can draw coverage away from Johnson.

What Broyles will do is make more explosive plays when he gets his hands on the ball in the open field than, say, tight ends Brandon Pettigrew or Tony Scheffler. The Lions would be a more explosive offense with Broyles, but that doesn't necessarily mean defenses will make it any easier for Johnson, and to a lesser extent Young, make deep downfield plays against them. I'm pretty sure I would take my chances against anyone other than Calvin Johnson.

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Ben of Denver thought that Mike Daniels, the Green Bay Packers' fourth-round draft choice, deserved to be in this week's discussion about the team's desire to get more "juice" in its defensive front: I think he at least deserved to be mentioned in the article, as he was brought in to do and has just as much of an opportunity to bring exactly the same thing that [Anthony] Hargrove was signed for, inside pass rush. I am very excited about the injection of explosiveness, talent, and depth to our front seven.

Kevin Seifert: Fair point. Daniels had seven sacks as an inside pass-rusher at Iowa and has a naturally athletic frame. According to Scouts Inc., Daniels put on 50 pounds in college to play defensive tackle at 291 pounds. In its pre-draft report, Scouts Inc. gave Daniels its highest grade for quickness (hands/feet) and toughness/motor. Here is an excerpt:

"Step late getting to the quarterback at times but disruptive nonetheless and excels at moving quarterback off the spot. Quickly reacts to snap and flashes the ability to shoot gaps. Above-average hand fighter that flashes effective swim, rip and push-pull moves. Can shake offensive linemen with spin move. Gets hands up when sees quarterback start throwing motion. Flashes the ability to get under centers and drive them back but average overall power as a bull rusher. … Active hands make it difficult for blockers to lock onto frame. Flashes the ability to counter when offensive linemen get their hands inside his initially. First-step quickness is a notch below elite. Rarely gets beat to the point of attack and ability to explode upfield in addition to leverage helps mask lack of ideal size. Shows good foot speed working down the line and fighting off cut blocks."

The point of the post was that the Packers have taken a very focused approach to their offseason, seeking out players with the skills to be disruptive on the line of scrimmage. Daniels certainly fits that description and should have received a mention in the post.

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Chuck of Guilin, China, writes: I have seen videos and read numerous slams on the Chicago Bears' OL. I thought they had two starters coming off 2011 injured reserve, no more Mike Martz and, most important, Mike Tice likes his group of young linemen. If Tice is what everyone says he is, why all the media flack?

Kevin Seifert: That's definitely the counter-argument to the media criticism the Bears have received. From the big picture, I see where the criticism has come from. The Bears have had to patch together their line in each of the past two seasons, rolling through various combinations and schemes until they found something that worked. In the process, some of their linemen -- like left tackle J'Marcus Webb -- looked pretty bad.

The Bears' decision not to add personnel means they have placed a lot of faith in Tice. In addition to his role as offensive coordinator, they want him to mold a functioning line group out of players who haven't always gotten the job done in the past two years. Success is usually a combination of player skill, good coaching and luck. The Bears have faith in some players whose skills have not always been obvious from the outside.

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Facebook friend Jerry asks: Since the free agent and draftees by the Vikings all seem to be second-tier WR's, is there any chance the Vikings will add an impact player from free agency still? Say a Braylon Edwards, Terrell Owens, Plaxico Burress?

Kevin Seifert: While I agree the Vikings have some question marks at the receiver position, it should be pointed out that they've already taken a dip into the veteran free-agent market and come up with Jerome Simpson. I'm not sure they have any plans beyond that. For now, they'll go with Percy Harvin, Michael Jenkins, Simpson, their pair of pass-catching tight ends, and hope that perhaps Greg Childs or Jarius Wright develop into a contributor.

Tuesday's SportsNation chat brought us the first round of "Did Team X elevate over Team Y after the draft" questions. I was never a big algebra guy, and I'm not ready to start playing favorites here in the NFC North.

But it is probably time to start the discussion, and we'll use two offense-related questions from the chat as a springboard. The exchanges:

Will (Texas)

If healthy, does Ryan Broyles makes Detroit's offense more explosive than Green Bay's?

Kevin Seifert (2:28 PM)

The one place where the Packers would be more explosive, but probably not more productive, is at tight end. Finley more explosive downfield than Pettigrew.

Gordy B (Houston)

Is it fair to say, assuming Forte is playing behind Cutler, with the additions of Brandon Marshall, Mike Bush and now Alshon Jeffery in front of Devin Hester and Earl Bennett, the Bears have the most COMPLETE offense in the division?

Kevin Seifert (2:54 PM)

That's a fair way to look at it. They're best equipped to make significant game-planning changes week-to-week based on matchups, that's for sure.

We took a look last month at the Bears' offensive hopes under new coordinator Mike Tice, noting they are well on their way to being the NFC North's most balanced offense. I'm not sure if they'll be explosive enough to compete throw for throw with the Packers and Lions, but I'm also not sure they want to.

If "explosion" is defined by the ability to make big/long plays, the Packers had the clear edge over the Lions in 2011. Most notably, they averaged 9.3 yards per attempt to the Lions' 7.6. Meanwhile, the Lions threw 114 more passes than the Packers last season, but the Packers still had five more completions of at least 20 yards.

Assuming he is healthy, can Broyles close the gap? Here's what Scouts Inc. had to say about his big-play ability: "Quicker than fast and does not appear to have the long speed to consistently get behind defenses. However, catches the ball effortlessly on the run and quickly turns up field. An elusive and slippery runner when hitting the open field. Can create and turn and short throw into a long gain. Does not have the extra gear to consistently out run pursuit that has favorable angles."

The Packers had one of the best offenses in NFL history last season, and it will be tough for any team -- including the 2012 Packers -- to match it. But if the Lions match or exceed the Packers' explosiveness, my guess is that it will be more a product of their continued maturation as a group than Broyles' impact alone.

We've used 2011 playing-time statistics to identify a number of trends and important points, from the perfect attendance of Chicago Bears linebacker Lance Briggs to the reliability of Detroit Lions tight end Brandon Pettigrew to the curious limitations placed upon Minnesota Vikings receiver Percy Harvin. Now let's sift though some other figures that don't demand dramatic conclusions but are of interest nonetheless.

1. We noted that Briggs played every defensive snap for the Bears last season. Five other players, all offensive linemen, also never missed a play. That list includes Chicago Bears center Roberto Garza and left tackle J'Marcus Webb, Detroit Lions guards Stephen Peterman and Rob Sims, and Green Bay Packers guard/tackle T.J. Lang.
2. Minnesota Vikings left tackle Charlie Johnson missed a grand total of eight plays in 2011. Lions center Dominic Raiola missed nine plays and Packers center Scott Wells missed 29. Vikings right tackle Phil Loadholt played all but 33 snaps.
3. Depth issues at defensive end surfaced for several teams. The Vikings' Jared Allen led all NFL players at his position by playing on 94.3 percent of his team's snaps, and teammate Brian Robison ranked 11th among defensive ends by playing 84.4 percent. Meanwhile, the Bears' Israel Idonije was on the field for 84.6 percent of his team's snaps, with Julius Peppers close behind at 82.1. Obviously that foursome is a good group of players, but it's also clear that their teams didn't have backups they felt comfortable rolling in.
4. Consider that conclusion in the context of how the well-stocked Lions rotated their defensive ends. Cliff Avril played on 72 percent of their snaps and Kyle Vanden Bosch was on the field for 67.9 percent. Lawrence Jackson played on 30.1 percent of the Lions' snaps despite injuries that limited him to 11 games, while backup Willie Young saw action 22.7 percent of plays over 14 games.
5. The NFC North had two workhorse middle linebackers. The Bears' Brian Urlacher missed only 14 plays, most of which came after a knee injury in the season finale. The Lions' Stephen Tulloch, meanwhile, missed only 19 of 1,098 defensive snaps.
6. Bears running back Matt Forte was on the field for the 10th-most plays (564) among running backs despite missing four-plus games because of a knee injury.

On several occasions during his tenure, Detroit Lions coach Jim Schwartz has emphasized the importance of drafting players with a specific role in mind for the team's scheme. In researching our 2011 All-NFC North team, it became clear that tight end Brandon Pettigrew is a prime example of that philosophy.

I chose Green Bay Packers tight end Jermichael Finley over Pettigrew for the team, but that shouldn't diminish Pettigrew's fundamental importance to the Lions' offense. The Lions drafted Pettigrew with the No. 20 overall pick in 2009, the highest selection for a tight end in the past five years. In 2011, we found out explicitly why a rebuilding team had prioritized what is normally a complementary position.

Offensive coordinator Scott Linehan has a long history of utilizing tight ends in the passing game, and one of his primary philosophies is to use the same personnel in various sets to limit the ability of defenses to match up. Pettigrew has ably filled the role of a reliable, if unspectacular, workhorse under those parameters.

The Lions used Pettigrew in 2011 as much as any team in the NFL used their top tight end. He was on the field for 1,043 snaps -- more than every tight end except the New England Patriots' Rob Gronkowski -- and played the fifth-highest percentage of his team's snaps (94.5).

The Lions targeted Pettigrew on 115 passes, tied for the third-highest total among NFL tight ends, and his 83 receptions also ranked third.

In choosing Finley, I noted that he was used in a lower-percentage scheme that featured more downfield passes. Pettigrew, on the other hand, was in many ways an extension of the Lions' running game.

But that's the point, isn't it? Pettigrew demonstrated the diversity required in the Lions' scheme. It requires a level of pass-catching skill to haul in 83 passes, no matter how short they are. And because he is more than an adequate blocker, there was never a reason to take him off the field. As a result, Pettigrew's presence never tips off a defense about an upcoming play call.

On another team or in a different scheme, drafting Pettigrew in the first round would have been a luxury. But the Lions insisted he would be an integral part of their approach, and in 2011 he was.

It took longer than expected. Preliminary decisions were questioned. Debates extended into the wee hours. We went through a first draft, then a second and even a third. Countless observers were consulted. It wasn't until I had a full week to mull the 2011 All-NFC North team that I was prepared to make the big reveal.

Via Twitter, @jpberthiaume asked: "Do people really care about these 'teams?'" I guess it's a fair point. I doubt few, if any, of the players listed in the chart wrote a fifth-grade essay about their plans to one day make the All-NFC North team on ESPN.com, even if it was only because the NFC North hadn't yet been formed in those days and ESPN.com was operating out of a Bristol-based closet.

So I'll let you be the judge. This is annually a fun exercise, even if it doesn't lead to a deep understanding of the human condition or even reveal any breakthroughs about the just-completed season. If nothing else, it offers us a blank template to recognize the best-performing players in the division without the hindrance of the politics and reputation.

Some notes on some of the tight decisions, for which I seriously received input from multiple angles:

• One of the fiercest debates came at wide receiver. Everyone agreed that the Detroit Lions' Calvin Johnson deserved one spot, but there was a split about the other two. Did the Green Bay Packers' Greg Jennings, who missed three games because of a knee injury, deserve an automatic bid? And if he did, should the Packers' Jordy Nelson or the Minnesota Vikings' Percy Harvin get the third spot? I thought Jennings' 67 receptions, 949 yards and nine touchdowns in 13 games merited a spot. And ultimately I chose Nelson over Harvin. I realize Harvin caught 87 passes in a punchless offense and added 345 rushing yards to his total, but in the end I couldn't overlook a player who scored more touchdowns (15) than all but four players in the NFL this season. Plus, as Hatterbot pointed out: "Rushing yards don't count in the WR category."

2011 All-NFC North Team

Pos.	Player, Team
OFFENSE
WR	Calvin Johnson (DET)
WR	Greg Jennings (GB)
WR	Jordy Nelson (GB)
LT	Jeff Backus (DET)
LG	Rob Sims (DET)
C	Scott Wells (GB)
RG	Josh Sitton (GB)
RT	Bryan Bulaga (GB)
TE	Jermichael Finley (GB)
QB	Aaron Rodgers (GB)
RB	Matt Forte (CHI)
DEFENSE
DE	Jared Allen (MIN)
DT	Kevin Williams (MIN)
DT	Ndamukong Suh (DET)
DE	Julius Peppers (CHI)
OLB	Clay Matthews (GB)
MLB	Brian Urlacher (CHI)
OLB	Lance Briggs (CHI)
CB	Charles Tillman (CHI)
CB	Charles Woodson (GB)
S-NB	Tramon Williams (GB)
S	Louis Delmas (DET)
SPECIAL TEAMS
PK	Mason Crosby (GB)
P	Tim Mastay (GB)
PR	Devin Hester (CHI)
KR	Percy Harvin (MIN)
ST	Corey Graham (CHI)

• I went with the Lions' Rob Sims at left guard in part on the advice of John McTigue of ESPN Stats & Information, who noted that Sims was the only NFC North left guard to play the position for 16 games this season. Sims also had the best pass-sack ratio (19.7 passes per sack) of the group, based on video study.
• There is no doubt that the Lions' Brandon Pettigrew (83 catches) had a more productive season then the Packers' Jermichael Finley (55). But the Lions often used Pettigrew as a substitute for their punchless running game, and that's why his per-catch average of 9.4 yards was lower than any other tight end with at least 30 catches. According to ESPN Stats & Information, the average pass to Pettigrew this season traveled 6.5 yards in the air. The average pass to Finley traveled 11.4 yards. Finley caught five passes of at least 30 yards. Pettigrew's longest was 27. Both players had their share of drops, combining for a total of 15, but I thought Finley made a bigger impact on his catches than Pettigrew did.
• I really debated the Bears' Julius Peppers and the Lions' Cliff Avril at defensive end. Avril (11.5) had a half-sack more than Peppers (11) and forced twice as many fumbles. But one of the advantages we have on this team is investigating beyond the conventional numbers. Our friends at Pro Football Focus (PFF) credited Peppers with 53 quarterback pressures, the second-highest total in the NFL. Avril ranked No. 8 with 37, but in a close race, I chose the maximum mumber of plays impacted over Avril's slight edge in "playmaking" statistics.
• I used a similar approach in choosing the Vikings' Kevin Williams and the Lions' Ndamukong Suh as my defensive tackles. It's true that the Bears' Henry Melton led the NFC North's defensive tackles with seven pressures, but PFF had Suh with 27 quarterback pressures, an NFL high for an interior lineman. Williams tied for No. 3 with 25. Melton wasn't that far behind at 23, but I also took into account that the Bears nearly benched him for inconsistency at one point in the season. (Coach Lovie Smith in November: "He hasn't showed up as much. Whether teams have adjusted to him or whatever, we need to get more production from him because he's capable of it." Meanwhile, I thought Packers defensive lineman B.J. Raji took a step backward in 2011. PFF credited him with only 10 stops (the cumulative number of plays made that constitute an offensive failure) in 842 snaps.
• If you want to say I chickened out at linebacker, go ahead. I originally left open the middle and one of the outside spots, but in the end I went with our division standbys: Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs. For starters, Briggs was one of six non-offensive linemen to play 100 percent of his team's snaps in the NFL this season. There's something to be said for being available to your team. And while I do think that the Packers' Desmond Bishop and the Lions' Stephen Tulloch had good seasons, I couldn't find a statistic or an opinion that convinced me they were better than Urlacher. Someday, there will be turnover among NFC North linebackers. But it didn't happen this season.
• Safety play was poor throughout the NFC North, so I'm not at all ashamed to have chosen a third cornerback to replace one of the safeties on this team. It came down to the Lions' Chris Houston and the Packers' Tramon Williams. Both had their ups and downs in coverage. Houston had five interceptions and two touchdowns in 14 games, while Williams had four interceptions and one touchdown in 15 games. In the end, I chose Williams because I think it was pretty clear he was pushing through a really limiting shoulder injury for much of the first half of the season.
• I chose the Packers' specialists, kicker Mason Crosby and punter Tim Masthay. Crosby converted 24 of 28 kicks, including a 58-yarder, and ranked third in the NFL with 49 touchbacks. Masthay downed a division-high 23 punts inside the 20-yard line despite a division-low 55 punts.
• I mistakenly left off a coverage specialist from our original post. There should be no debating that the Bears' Corey Graham deserves that spot.
• Go ahead. Rip away....

Coming later this week: Some supplementary NFC North awards, including our top coordinators.

» Wild-Card Final Word: Bengals-Texans | Lions-Saints | Falcons-Giants | Steelers-Broncos

Three nuggets of knowledge about Saturday's Lions-Saints wild-card game:

Historic battle: I did my best this week to make our preview coverage about the actual game and its matchups, as opposed to just how unprecedented a victory Saturday night would be in recent Lions history. (Here's a link to our handy "Lions-Saints" tag.) But here goes: The Lions are one of two NFL teams never to have won a wild-card playoff game, tallying an 0-6 record since its advent, according to ESPN Stats & Information. They haven't won a playoff game of any sort since the 1991 season, and its been 54 years since they've won a playoff game on the road (a 31-27 victory at the San Francisco 49ers in the 1957 Western Conference playoffs). The Lions are 11-point underdogs against a Saints team that hasn't lost at home this season. It's no surprise that the Twitter hashtag #shocktheworld has emerged this week. For any number of reasons, there aren't many people counting on a Lions victory Saturday night.

More than Megatron: Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams noted this week that "guys that are 6-5 end up being 5-5 when they get flipped over on their head," an obvious reference to Lions receiver Calvin Johnson. But no matter how much attention the Saints pay to Johnson, they'll no doubt be aware of the impressive across-the-board production the Lions got during their 3-1 finish to the regular season. Johnson caught 27 passes and four touchdowns over that span, but tight end Brandon Pettigrew also caught 27 passes, while receiver Nate Burleson had 22 and Titus Young 17. Young scored four touchdowns, Pettigrew two and Burleson one. The Lions aren't likely to win if Johnson gets shut out, but they have the capacity to compete even if he is limited, especially if quarterback Matthew Stafford can beat the Saints' blitz as we discussed earlier this week.

Impact player: As the quarterback, Stafford will have more opportunities to impact the outcome of the game than any other Lions player. But a close second will be any of the Lions' key pass-rushers up front. Whether it's Ndamukong Suh or Kyle Vanden Bosch or Cliff Avril, someone needs to make Saints quarterback Drew Brees uncomfortable in the pocket early and maintain the pressure for the duration. Otherwise, Brees will pick the Lions apart. In the teams' first meeting, the Lions put Brees under duress on only three of his 38 dropbacks. He completed 26 of his resulting 36 passes for 342 yards and three touchdowns. Suh, Vanden Bosch and Avril have each had dominant games at one point or another in their careers. At least one of them must produce another Saturday night.

The Detroit Lions this season have provided anecdotal evidence of what has long been asserted through statistical analysis: Penalty totals don't necessarily correlate with winning percentage.

The Lions ranked third in the NFL this season in accepted penalties (128) and second in the amount of yards lost (1,075). They drew national attention for committing three post-whistle personal fouls in their Week 13 game at the New Orleans Saints, but even after cleaning up that issue, they exceeded their season averages in three of their subsequent four games, as the chart shows.

Those numbers coincide with what Lions coach Jim Schwartz preached in the days after that Saints game: The timing and nature of the penalty is more important than the raw totals. Against the Saints, the Lions were penalized 11 times for 107 yards, but also had 113 yards in gains nullified by those penalties. Three offensive pass interference calls against receiver Nate Burleson, along with post-whistle mistakes by receiver Titus Young, tight end Brandon Pettigrew and kick returner Stefan Logan, caused a disproportionate amount of the damage.

"The one thing you don't want to do in a game like that is give away anything for free," Schwartz told New Orleans-area media. "In a playoff game you want to earn it. You want your opponent to have to earn it. That's one thing we need to do better Saturday than we did the last Sunday night game."

Given a choice, I'm sure Schwartz would prefer that his team lower the penalty average Saturday night. But as long as they avoid penalties that, as he said, give away yards for free, I'm guessing he can live with it.

Please trust me when I tell you I had some big plans for Detroit Lions coverage Tuesday as their first playoff game in 11 years approaches. But the rapid-fire release of news this morning, first the firing of Chicago Bears general manager Jerry Angelo and then the promotion of Rick Spielman to the Minnesota Vikings' newly-created role of general manager, has spread me a bit thin.

I've rescheduled some posts planned for later in the week, and moved a different topic to the front of the line. And in all honesty, it covers one of the most important points the Lions will have to address in their matchup with the New Orleans Saints.

Namely: The Saints' pressure defense and the impact it might or might not have against a Lions offense that didn't see the blitz often in the regular season.

Here are the facts:

Stafford vs. The Blitz

A look at Lions QB Matthew Stafford when facing 5-plus pass-rushers.

		NFL Rank
Comp. Pct.	56.1	13th
Yds./Att.	7.0	21st
TD	7	t-15th
Int.	6	t-28th
Total QBR	44.4	22nd
Source: ESPN Stats & Information

• Under defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, the Saints blitzed on 51.1 percent of opponents' dropbacks this season, the highest rate of any team in the NFL.
• Opponents blitzed Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford at a lower rate than any NFL starter in 2011, about 24 percent of his dropbacks. But as the chart shows, Stafford's efficiency dipped noticeably on the occasions when he was pressured by five or more defenders.

As we've discussed before, any team blitzing Stafford must weigh the risk-reward of leaving receiver Calvin Johnson -- not to mention teammates Nate Burleson, Titus Young and Brandon Pettigrew -- in favorable coverage matchups. Even the Saints pulled back on their usual approach in the teams' Week 13 matchup at the Superdome, blitzing Stafford on 40.4 percent of his dropbacks.

On those plays, Stafford completed 10 of 17 passes for 167 yards. He was sacked twice and threw an interception. When the Saints sent four or fewer rushers, he completed 21 of 27 passes for 241 yards and a touchdown, good for a 116.2 passer rating.

(Hat tip to Matt Willis of ESPN Stats & Information for the legwork on those figures.)

The Saints were one of three teams this season to hold the Lions under 20 points in a 31-17 victory. Teams rarely use the same gameplan in season rematches, so you wonder if Williams will turn up the jets on Stafford and see if the Lions' young quarterback can respond under the pressure of a playoff environment.

If I'm the Lions, I would take that turn of events 10 times out of 10. Stafford played at a Pro Bowl level over the final month of the season, throwing 14 touchdown passes and two interceptions in the four games since losing to the Saints. Any good offense invites the blitz because it expects its quarterback to capitalize on the resulting coverage gaps.

Is it fair to ask that of Stafford, who at 23 will be making his first playoff start? I think so.

His performance against the blitz is a relatively small sample of his season. It wouldn't fall beyond the realm of possibility for a young quarterback to melt down against heavy pressure in what figures to be a raucous scene at the Superdome. But as we've discussed before, Stafford isn't a typical young quarterback and hasn't withered in a number of extreme situations earlier this season.

Many of you were upset that Stafford hasn't gained more national recognition for his achievements this season. Saturday night will provide him a national audience to demonstrate how precocious he really is.

A few thoughts on as wild of a "meaningless" Week 17 game as you'll possibly see.

What it means: The Green Bay Packers improved to 15-1, becoming the sixth team in NFL history to win at least 15 regular-season games in one season, despite deactivating three of their most prominent players (quarterback Aaron Rodgers, cornerback Charles Woodson and linebacker Clay Matthews). They also used the game to experiment on offensive line combinations. Amazingly, the Packers were able to protect some key players while still riding momentum into the playoffs. The Lions missed a chance to lock up the No. 5 seed in the NFC playoffs, leaving their positioning at the mercy of the Atlanta Falcons. The Lions will be the No. 6 seed, and travel to the New Orleans Saints, if the Falcons defeat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Falcons were leading 35-0 in the second quarter at last check. The Lions have now lost 20 consecutive games in the state of Wisconsin.

Air Supply: On a windy and snowy day at Lambeau Field, both starting quarterbacks set franchise records for passing yards in a game. Backup Matt Flynn made the most of his opportunity to start, throwing for 480 yards and six touchdowns, also a team record. The Lions' Matthew Stafford threw for 520 yards, bringing their combined total to an even 1,000 in the game, and tied his team record with five touchdown passes. The Madden-like final statistics also included 244 receiving yards for Lions receiver Calvin Johnson, 116 for tight end Brandon Pettigrew and 162 for Packers receiver Jordy Nelson.

FlynnWatch: I'm not sure what else Flynn could have done to audition for a starting job elsewhere next season. The Packers used two different left tackles, Chad Clifton and Marshall Newhouse, and didn't have receiver Greg Jennings or running back James Starks for this game. But Flynn smartly used the remaining talent the Packers surrounded him with, most notably Nelson (three touchdowns). Perhaps most impressive to teams considering him in free agency this spring, Flynn also led the Packers to 14 points in the final eight minutes, 18 seconds of the game, playing as if he was the quarterback fighting to secure a fifth seed.

Official grumbling: Kudos to Lions center Dominic Raiola, who stepped in and calmed down Lions coach Jim Schwartz (a little bit) in the second quarter after a series of poor calls robbed the Lions of both challenge opportunities before halftime. There is little doubt that the Lions were on the short end of both calls that led to challenges, a fumble that was reversed on tight end Tony Scheffler and a fumble by kick returner Stefan Logan. That left the Lions unable to challenge what should have been a touchdown pass to receiver Titus Young, whom officials ruled didn't get both feet down in the end zone when he in fact did. But in the end, it's fair to say the Lions had plenty of opportunities to win the game. I hope no one leaves the Lions locker room blaming those calls for the loss. The Lions had a 41-38 lead with 2:44 remaining, and their defense couldn't slow down a watered-down Packers offense. That's on them. The Packers' winning drive included two third-down conversions, one of which came after defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh jumped offside.

What's next: We'll await the Lions' playoff seed and opponent for next weekend's wild-card game, to be determined later Sunday. The Packers will have a playoff bye week and host a divisional game the weekend of Jan. 14-15.

» NFC Stock Watch: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

FALLING

1. Secondary play in Chicago and Minnesota: Between the two of them, the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings have maybe one or two defensive backs who should be considered 2012 starters heading into the offseason. Bears cornerback Charles Tillman qualifies, and perhaps Vikings cornerback Antoine Winfield will as well if he returns healthy from a fractured collarbone. Otherwise, the Bears and Vikings need a serious overhaul to their defensive backfields. Both teams tried season-long rotations at safety, neither of which led to any personnel conclusions, and cornerback play outside of Tillman has been atrocious for both teams. It will probably be a multiyear process for these franchises to rebuild these positions. With Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler in this division, they better hurry.

2. Christian Ponder, Minnesota Vikings quarterback: We all remember ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer's harsh criticism of Ponder shortly after the draft. In brief, Dilfer said Ponder looks the part of an NFL quarterback but quickly falls from his comfort zone and loses accuracy under pressure. Dilfer softened some of that analysis after Ponder's relatively strong debut, but we should note that Ponder has been one of the NFL's worst quarterbacks against extra pass-rushers this season. According to ESPN Stats & Information, he is completing about 39 percent of his passes when opponents send five or more pass-rushers. The only player with less success against the blitz? Denver Broncos quarterback/running back Tim Tebow. It's not necessarily a warning sign if a rookie doesn't perform well under pressure, but to this point Ponder's performance hasn't veered much from Dilfer's original analysis.

3. Marion Barber, Bears running back: Barber's mental errors in a loss earlier this month to the Broncos, and his inability to keep his troublesome calf healthy, would seem to spell the end of his short tenure with the Bears. Kahlil Bell's hard-charging 123-yard performance Sunday night offers the Bears a much younger option for the role of backing up starter Matt Forte. It was a nice run, as they say.

RISING

1. Home-field advantage: The Packers have a quirky history when it comes to playing at home in the playoffs. In the big picture, the state of Wisconsin has provided one of the best home-field advantages in professional sports. The Packers are 15-3 all-time at home in the playoffs, including games played in Milwaukee. But those three losses have come in their past five playoff games at home: In 2003 to the Atlanta Falcons, in 2004 to the Vikings and 2007 to the New York Giants. One of the two victories, meanwhile, came in overtime to the Seattle Seahawks. Recently, at least, opponents haven't been intimidated by playing at Lambeau Field.

2. Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit Lions tight end: A significant debate erupted in 2009 when the Lions used the No. 20 overall pick to draft Pettigrew, passing up offensive lineman Michael Oher and receiver Percy Harvin, among others. But the Lions insisted that a multi-faceted tight end was critical to their offense, and they have followed through by utilizing Pettigrew as much as any team in the NFL. The Lions have used him as an extension of their running game, and although he is averaging a modest 8.7 yards per reception, his total of 76 catches ranks third among tight ends. By all accounts, Pettigrew is an excellent blocker as well. The Lions have gotten by this far with Jeff Backus and Gosder Cherilus as their tackles, minimizing the need for Oher. And while Harvin would have been a nice addition, the Lions have found value by signing veteran Nate Burleson and using a second-round pick to draft Titus Young.

3. T.J. Lang, Green Bay Packers offensive lineman: When the season began, how many people would have chosen Lang as the Packers' most valuable offensive lineman? Not me. Lang had been an inconsistent starter and player who couldn't find a position and was behind a rookie on the depth chart when the season began. But Lang outplayed first-round pick Derek Sherrod in camp to win the left guard job and has provided a seamless transition from departed starter Daryn Colledge. And when the Packers needed someone to jump over to right tackle after injuries to Bryan Bulaga and Sherrod, Lang successfully made the move. On Sunday night, at least, he held his own against Bears pass-rushers Julius Peppers and Israel Idonije. Center Scott Wells might be the Packers' best offensive lineman this season, but not many left guards could jump out to right tackle as well as Lang appeared to do Sunday night.

We're Black and Blue All Over:

Thanks to everyone who participated in Thursday's late-night Twitter discussion on the draft ramifications of the Indianapolis Colts' last-second upset of the Houston Texans. From an NFC North perspective, here's what I can tell you: If you're hoping the Minnesota Vikings will parlay the result into the No. 1 overall pick in the 2012 draft, you need to root for another Colts victory.

Based on research from ESPN Stats & Information, the Vikings would lose the tiebreaker with the Colts if they both finish 2-14. The St. Louis Rams would likely have the No. 3 pick in that scenario if they are also 2-14.

Ties are broken in reverse order of strength of schedule (SOS), and the Indianapolis Star has an easy-to-read projection of each team's SOS through 16 games. The Rams currently have a lower SOS than the Vikings, but those figures could swap when you consider the Rams finish the season against the 10-4 Pittsburgh Steelers and the 11-3 San Francisco 49ers. The Vikings' final two games are against the 5-9 Washington Redskins and 7-7 Chicago Bears.

I know it's complicated and more than you're probably willing to think about on the morning of December 23. But in terms of the No. 1 overall pick, the Vikings' best-case scenario is for the Colts to win next weekend against the Jacksonville Jaguars. (Combined with two more losses by the Vikings, of course.) That would leave the Colts 3-13 and the Vikings sweating out the SOS tiebreaker with the potentially 2-14 Rams, which they have a good chance of winning based on Week 16 and 17 matchups.

Continuing around the NFC North:

• Vikings coach Leslie Frazier expressed support for offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave and said he will return in 2012, writes Tom Pelissero of 1500ESPN.com.
• Vikings tailback Adrian Peterson is ready for a full-game workload, writes Dan Wiederer of the Star Tribune.
• Jeremy Fowler of the St. Paul Pioneer Press speaks with Vikings defensive backs coach Joe Woods, whose group has had its struggles this season.
• It appears the Chicago Bears will start Kahlil Bell at tailback Sunday against the Green Bay Packers, according to Vaughn McClure of the Chicago Tribune. Veteran Marion Barber hasn't practiced this week because of a calf injury.
• The Bears tried to sign free agent quarterback Matt Moore in July, according to Dan Pompei of the Chicago Tribune.
• The Bears' offense has been at the root of their four-game losing streak, writes Sean Jensen of the Chicago Sun-Times.
• Bears linebacker Brian Urlacher on the offense, via Michael C. Wright of ESPNChicago.com: "We can’t let it get to us. Our mindset is [to] go back out there and take the ball away for our offense. That's all we can do; just go out there and try and get three-and-outs ourselves or take the ball away. We don't think about it. I mean, we have a hard enough time ourselves. We can't be worried about what happens on offense."
• Detroit Lions veterans Jeff Backus and Dominic Raiola aren't getting too hyped about Saturday's potential playoff-clinching game, writes Michael Rosenberg of the Detroit Free Press.
• The Lions are trusting tight end Brandon Pettigrew despite a series of drops this season, writes John Niyo of the Detroit News.
• Making the playoffs is "really important to us," according to Lions defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham. Philip Zaroo of Mlive.com has more.
• The Green Bay Packers are getting back to basics in their efforts to limit drops, writes Kareem Copeland of the Green Bay Press-Gazette.
• Packers tight end Jermichael Finley has been a social media lightening rod, writes Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
• Jason Wilde of ESPNMilwaukee.com examines the Packers' intentions for the Wildcat offense with receiver Randall Cobb.

Years from now, Detroit Lions fans will remember where they were and how they felt when Matthew Stafford capped a 98-yard drive with a touchdown pass to Calvin Johnson -- the game-winning score in Sunday's 28-27 victory over the Oakland Raiders. But the "Megadrive," as I agree we should call it, never would have happened were it not for the most subtle and arguably most surprising play of Stafford's young career.

Back up and recall that the Lions trailed by 13 points with 5 minutes, 36 seconds remaining in the game. It was fourth-and-2 at the Raiders' 8-yard line, and a field goal would have provided little boost to their comeback efforts.

The Lions arranged themselves in an empty backfield with Stafford in the shotgun. They had two receivers lined up on the left and two on the right. Both groupings had a safety over top, and tight end Brandon Pettigrew had safety Mike Mitchell aligned in man coverage.

Stafford surveyed the defense and made a silent decision before the play began.

"They had three down linemen and a linebacker," Stafford said, "and everybody else was double-covered. I'm sitting there thinking, 'I'm about as good of an option as anybody else.'"

Not only were the Raiders in a three-man front, but nose tackle Desmond Bryant was offset to the right of center Dominic Raiola. Middle linebacker Rolando McClain was lined up 6 yards off the line of scrimmage. The Raiders were practically begging Stafford to pull down the ball and run to his left.

I don't blame them, not when the alternative was Stafford looking for Johnson in the end zone. And while Stafford is an athletic runner, he rarely scrambles. In 26 previous starts, in fact, Stafford had 43 carries and converted a first down on 10 of them.

In this case, however, there was no hesitation. He took two steps back after grabbing the snap, allowing the pass rush to advance, and then took off behind left guard Rob Sims. Bryant further opened the hole by stunting toward the right side of the line, and Stafford cut inside of McClain at the 8-yard line before gaining the first down and falling at the 3.

"It was a pass play," Stafford said. "Big number 55 [McClain] was the only guy I had to get past. I didn't tell anybody I was going to run. I jus went up to the line of scrimmage and figured I had to make a play. Put my foot in the ground and went north."

Were it not for that decision, we aren't talking this week about the Lions' first opportunity to clinch a playoff berth in 12 seasons. Instead, we'd be figuring out longshot tiebreaker scenarios and shifting our gaze to the offseason. A seemingly simple 5-yard run was confirmation of an observation that had been brewing for years: The Lions have the coolest, most collected 23-year-old quarterback in the NFL.

Johnson has received plenty of credit, all of it deserved, for his role in Sunday's victory. But the quarterback is almost always the key player in a comeback victory, and as the chart shows, Stafford has already directed six efforts to overcome a fourth-quarter deficit in less than three seasons.


Stafford has thrown a stunning 22 touchdown passes in those six games. The Lions trailed by at least 13 points in five of them, and it's worth noting that half of them came on the road. Quarterbacks with strong arms and high character enter the NFL every season. Only a fraction of them play their best in adverse situations.

"He's young but he's seasoned," Lions coach Jim Schwartz said. "He's played a lot football in his life. High school, college. He started as a true freshman at the University of Georgia in the Southeast Conference. I mean, there's some big games involved there, too. He's been on track for this for a long time. He didn't switch positions and start playing quarterback when he came into the NFL. He's been in a lot of these situations before and that's why we drafted him. He's going to lead this team to a lot of wins."

To be sure, Stafford and the Lions still trailed by two scores even after the conversion. But he threw a 3-yard touchdown pass to Titus Young on the next play, and on the "Megadrive," Stafford completed 5 of 7 passes for 91 yards and also threw a ball that resulted in a 17-yard pass-interference penalty. Most notably, Stafford understood the Lions needed downfield completions and managed to complete two -- for 21 and 48 yards to Johnson -- without forcing one pass.

"You need to [get] some chunks in there somewhere," Schwartz said. "You can't just check the ball down every single time. You're going to have to really zip some balls in. … There are not a whole lot of safe decisions when you're down six with no timeouts and 98 yards in front of you."

But on a half-dozen occasions already in his career, Stafford has demonstrated perhaps the rarest of qualities among NFL quarterbacks. He makes sound decisions under pressure -- even if they're sometimes a surprise.

After a week of public discussion about the issue, Detroit Lions coach Jim Schwartz did not bench any of the three players who received post-whistle personal fouls in a Week 13 loss to the New Orleans Saints.

Instead, according to ESPN's Chris Mortensen, Schwartz instituted a zero-tolerance policy that called for any offending player to be benched for the remainder of any game in which he committed that type of penalty. Several players mentioned the policy last week, but Schwartz would not confirm it. Still, Mortensen reported that Schwartz reminded players of it Saturday night in a team meeting.

Schwartz benched right tackle Gosder Cherilus in Week 2 after a late-game penalty in Week 1, prompting speculation that receiver Titus Young, kick returner Stefan Logan and/or tight end Brandon Pettigrew would suffer a similar fate Sunday against the Minnesota Vikings. But all three made important contributions to a 34-28 victory.

Benching three prominent players sounds good in theory, but ultimately Schwartz didn't consider it realistic. He essentially became the parent that tells his children: "Don't do it again -- or else." Both the parent and Schwartz are hoping the threat is enough to avoid the "or else." So far, so good.

GREEN BAY, Wis. -- Greetings from Lambeau Field, where you're not going to get weather much warmer in the second week of December than the 40 degrees we have here Sunday.

We'll have inactive lists at about 2:45 p.m. ET as we get closer to the Green Bay Packers' kickoff against the Oakland Raiders. I'm not anticipating any surprises, but come to think of it, by definition, it wouldn't be a surprise if we could anticipate it.

I'm keeping an eye on the Detroit Lions-Minnesota Vikings matchup, and it's worth noting that two of the players we spent last week talking about -- Lions receiver Titus Young and tight end Brandon Pettigrew -- scored the first two offensive touchdowns in what is a 28-7 Lions lead in the second quarter.