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NFL teams often use their bye weeks to analyze their rosters and create contingency plans for the remainder of the season. Sometimes that means bringing in unsigned players for workouts, and the Detroit Lions appear to have been quite active on that front last week.

According to Adam Caplan of thesidelineview.com, the Lions brought in 24 players for workouts -- including veteran offensive lineman Leonard Davis and two former Lions running backs.

Davis appears set to join the Lions roster, presumably in a reserve role, according to Chris McCosky of the Detroit News. The list of workouts also included running backs Kevin Smith and Aaron Brown, receiver Antwan Randle El and quarterback Brian Brohm.

The Lions released Smith and Brown over the summer. But given the uncertain future of starter Jahvid Best (concussion) and the brain tumor of Jerome Harrison, it was worth checking in on the conditioning of two running backs who wouldn’t need time to learn the Lions' system if needed.

Enough, wrote Scott of Harrisonburg, Va. Apparently I had referenced one too many times that accuracy rates among college quarterbacks typically translate when they reach the NFL. Prove it, Scott said. Here's what he dropped in the mailbag:

My first born if you compile a list of *all* the quarterbacks that rolled through the NFC North (as starters since 2000?) and rank them by their college completion rate.

I've got my hands full already, so I won't be collecting that bounty or any other reward for this post. But Scott's question intrigued me. Accuracy is the single-most important characteristic of any quarterback, especially when you expand the definition to include decision-making. After all, throwing to the right person should increase the chances of a completion.

If a college quarterback finishes his career with a relatively low completion percentage, is it reasonable to expect he can elevate it at the professional level? Research performed by actual football statisticians, most notably the David Lewin, has suggested college quarterbacks who complete less than 60 percent of their passes at least warrant closer inspection by NFL teams considering drafting them.

There are obvious 2011 angles to this theory as the Minnesota Vikings plan to draft a quarterback next week. Washington's Jake Locker finished his career with a 53.9 completion percentage, having never completed better than 58 percent of his passes in any season. Meanwhile, Missouri's Blaine Gabbert has raised questions among those who have pulled apart his college career to find he completed only 44.3 percent of his third-down throws. Last season, he completed only 38 percent of his throws that traveled at least 15 yards.

So here's what I decided to do from an NFC North angle. Using Scott's suggestion as a guide, I looked up the college completion percentages of the 31 quarterbacks who were either drafted by one of our teams since 1999 or were the primary quarterback for at least one season in this division over that stretch. (Hat tip to totalfootballstats.com for the information and to ESPN.com blog editor Brett Longdin for helping me compile it.)

I'm not a statistician, and I don't think we should consider the information below a representative trend for the entire game. I just think it's an enlightening illustration from a pool of players most of us are familiar with. First, here is a ranking of NFC North quarterbacks based on their NFL accuracy, organized to show how the division's most accurate quarterbacks fared in college.



Again, we should be careful about drawing any firm conclusions from this data. But here are some points worth noting:

• Five quarterbacks brought their completion percentage from below 60 percent to above 60 percent, with Brett Favre forging the most dramatic path. Jay Cutler was another notable climber. I didn't include the Minnesota Vikings' Joe Webb in that count because of his small sample size. The other 11 sub-60 percent quarterbacks remained there when they reached the NFL.
• Context is critical for evaluating college completion percentages. In his original paper, in fact, Lewin noted that Cutler's 57.2 college completion percentage was misleading given the long history of much lower rates on Vanderbilt's perennially undermanned teams in the decade before Cutler arrived.
• The most accurate college quarterback on this list is Brian Brohm, who completed 65.8 percent at Louisville. We all know how that worked out for Brohm, who was stunningly inaccurate during his practice time with the Packers and hasn't been much better in several stints with the Buffalo Bills. Another example of college completion rates not translating is Drew Stanton, who hit 64.1 percent of his throws at Michigan State but hasn't come anywhere close to that with the Detroit Lions.
• Overall, 12 of the quarterbacks currently have higher completion percentages in the NFL than they did in college. A total of 16 dropped and three have not yet thrown an NFL pass. I realize there are huge discrepancies between the number of throws made by, say, Brad Johnson and Matt Flynn, but those are the raw numbers.
• It's worth nothing that the NFC North's most accurate quarterback over this stretch, Aaron Rodgers, finished his college career at 63.8 percent.

If our small sample leads us in so many directions, I think it's fair to assume that NFL teams will look well beyond the percentages. Ultimately, teams must decide what factored in to both high and low percentages. Did Locker play on an overmatched team, as Cutler did? Were Gabbert's downfield receivers substandard?

On the other side of the spectrum, TCU's Andy Dalton completed 66.7 percent of his passes last season. Was that performance the result of pinpoint throwing and smart decisions? Or is he the next Brian Brohm or even a Tim Couch, quarterbacks who benefited from a college scheme that facilitated a high completion rate?

Once NFL teams establish that context, then they can begin examining the prospect's raw throwing skills. This is where concerns have arisen about Locker, especially. Why did he have so many passes that simply failed to hit their mark during his career?

ESPN analyst Jon Gruden made clear that "accuracy can be improved" but that Locker needs to "work hard" at re-establishing his fundamentals.

"Sometimes it's because of your fundamentals," Gruden said. "Sometimes you're out of rhythm, you're in the shotgun, you're underneath the center. Sometimes you're under duress and out of rhythm. Sometimes you're hurrying, you're playing too fast. You're anticipating congestion around you when maybe there isn't."

But Gruden warned: "Accuracy sometimes can be terminal. Sometimes you can't cure that. I think that's a big concern with Jake Locker, because he does miss some throws."

We can't conclude that Locker or Gabbert are destined for NFL failure because they sometimes struggled to complete throws in college. The necessary improvement has been made over the past decade in this division, be it from a Hall of Fame quarterback like Favre or a journeyman like Brian Griese.

But it's also a reason for pause. Based on our sample size, at least, it's more likely that a relatively inaccurate college quarterback will be inaccurate at the NFL level. Scott of Harrisonburg probably didn't need me to tell him that.

» NFC Draft Watch: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Each Thursday leading up to the NFL draft (April 28-30), the ESPN.com NFL blog network will take a division-by-division look at key aspects of the draft. Today's topic: draft rewind -- examining the past five drafts.

Chicago Bears

Best choice: My initial thought was to nominate receiver Johnny Knox, a fifth-round pick two years ago out of Division-II Abilene Christian. Knox has 96 receptions in two seasons and is as close to a No. 1 receiver as the Bears have. But the 2006 decision to draft kick returner Devin Hester in the second round was inspired. Hester has changed the game and has become one of the best returners in the history of football. He has also made steady improvement as a receiver after converting from cornerback. Hester it is.

Worst choice: The Bears made Central Michigan defensive end Dan Bazuin a second-round pick in 2007. He was taken No. 62 overall but never played a regular-season down for the team. A left knee injury ended his rookie season and a second operation on the knee led to his release in the summer of 2008. I'm not sure if the Bears could have projected the knee problems, but bidding farewell to a second-round pick after one year is problematic.

On the bubble: Chris Williams, drafted as the left tackle of the future in 2008, missed almost half of his rookie season because of a back injury and has started at three different positions in the ensuing two years. As of today, the Bears aren't saying where he will play in 2011. The position changes could merit credit for flexibility, or they could be grounds for criticism because the Bears haven't been able to lock him down at left tackle as they have hoped.

Detroit Lions

Best choice: If you had the option between a pass-rushing, playmaking defensive tackle and a freakishly skilled receiver, which would you take? I would go with the former, which is why I'm making defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh my top Lions choice over the past five years. Receiver Calvin Johnson is an elite player, but to me, Suh plays a more important position. I realize Suh wasn't exactly a surprise pick at No. 2 overall in 2010, but it's rare that a player taken at that spot lives up to the hype so quickly.

Worst choice: This discussion is limited to the past five years, so we can't nominate receiver Mike Williams (2005). Many of the Lions' now-discarded draft picks were selected with former coach Rod Marinelli's Tampa 2 defensive scheme in mind, so it's not surprising they would no longer be around. There is no smoking gun in this time period, so I'll go with receiver Derrick Williams, a third-round pick in 2009 who has failed as both a No. 3 receiver and a kick returner.

On the bubble: Quarterback Matthew Stafford, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2009 draft, has missed more games (19) than he's played (13) in the past two years. His three-game appearance in 2010 suggested improvement over his 20-interception rookie season, but like any player, Stafford must find a way to stay on the field or he will be a bust.

Green Bay Packers

Best choice: Trading back into the first round in 2009 to select linebacker Clay Matthews was an inspired move. And tight end Jermichael Finley, you might recall, was a low third-round pick in 2008. But in this case, I have to go with finding one of the top receivers in the game at the bottom of the second round of the 2006 draft. Greg Jennings was the No. 52 overall pick that year and not exactly a household name after his Western Michigan career. But he was productive from the moment he arrived in Green Bay and earned a well-deserved Pro Bowl berth last season.

Worst choice: Tennessee defensive lineman Justin Harrell had a history of injuries when the Packers made him the No. 16 overall pick in 2007. Not coincidentally, injuries have prevented Harrell from establishing any sort of career. He has played in 14 games over four seasons, felled by back and knee ailments, among others. Because of the value of his draft position, Harrell gets the nod over Louisville quarterback Brian Brohm, who bombed after the Packers took him in the second round in 2008.

On the bubble: The Packers don't have a player who fits neatly into this category, but on a relative scale I would go with guard Daryn Colledge, a second-round pick in 2006. Colledge has started all but three games over the past five years, making several position changes along the way, but the Packers never seem willing to commit to him for the long term. That trend continued last month, when they tendered him as a prospective restricted free agent but didn't seem interested (yet) in a multiyear contract. Is this the year they find someone to take over his left guard spot?

Minnesota Vikings

Best choice: Defensive end Ray Edwards has 29.5 sacks in his five-year career, including 16.5 in the past two season, some significant numbers for a player taken in the fourth round of the 2006 draft (No. 127 overall). But it's hard to get past the value the Vikings have gotten from receiver Percy Harvin, their first pick (No. 22 overall) in 2009. They put a substantial amount of pre-draft work into his background, and he has not been responsible for any off-field issue that has been publicized. In two seasons, moreover, Harvin has 131 receptions and has been a force as a kickoff returner as well. The Vikings didn't fully grasp Harvin's migraine history, but I'm not sure if many teams did at the time.

Worst choice: Safety Tyrell Johnson, whom the Vikings targeted and traded up to the No. 43 slot in 2008 to draft, has been a disappointment and is not guaranteed a starting job in 2011. But as far as impact on the organization, it's hard to look past the decision to trade into the second round of the 2006 draft and select quarterback Tarvaris Jackson. There is no doubt Jackson had some physical skills to get excited about. But ultimately, that decision -- along with former coach Brad Childress' faith in his future development -- set back the franchise and left it in desperation mode this spring.

On the bubble: Right tackle Phil Loadholt was the No. 54 overall pick in 2009 and has started 31 of a possible 32 games since. But is that because he deserves to be an established starter in the NFL, or was he simply the Vikings' best option? There are mixed opinions about Loadholt's performance over that stretch, and it's not clear if the Vikings' new coaching staff considers him an unquestioned starter moving forward.

There never seemed much hope this week that Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (concussion) would be cleared to play in Sunday night's game at the New England Patriots, and on Saturday the team made it official.

Rodgers has been ruled out and Matt Flynn will make his first career start. The Packers promoted Graham Harrell from the practice squad to serve as Flynn's backup Sunday night and placed safety Anthony Smith on injured reserve. Rodgers' concussion will leave the Packers without a whopping nine of the 22 players who were Week 1 starters.

Rodgers has started 45 consecutive regular-season games since taking over the job in 2008. The streak couldn't end at a worst time for the Packers, who are clinging to their playoff hopes here in Week 15. They could be eliminated from the NFC North title chase as early as Monday night if they lose to the Patriots and the Chicago Bears defeat the Minnesota Vikings.

As we discussed Thursday, Flynn is a product of Packers general manager Ted Thompson's strict policy of developing key depth from within. A seventh-round pick in 2008, Flynn beat out fellow draftee Brian Brohm for the No. 2 job that summer. The Packers have never considered a veteran backup for Rodgers.

More often than not, Thompson's young backups rise to the occasion. Will that be true for the game's most important position as well? Or will Rodgers' concussion be the final blow in a season full of injuries for the Packers. We'll find out Sunday night.

We're Black and Blue All Over:

One issue facing the Green Bay Packers that we didn't get to in this week's Camp Confidential: backup quarterback Matt Flynn, the third-year player whose competence is wholly unknown after two seasons behind 32-game starter Aaron Rodgers.

Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel took on the two-pronged issue and concluded that Flynn is more respected around the NFL than he is among the Packers' fan base. "In Flynn, they trust," writes McGinn.

My own feeling is that nearly every NFL team would take a step backwards if its backup quarterback took over. (Those that wouldn't probably have a sub-par starter.) It's a fact of life for the NFL, and Green Bay is no different. The only difference with Flynn is that there is such a small body of work with which to form an opinion.

Even last season, Flynn saw reduced practice and preseason snaps as the Packers tried to get Brian Brohm straightened out. We should start seeing Flynn play extensively beginning with Saturday's preseason game against Cleveland.

Continuing around the NFC North:

• Kareem Copeland of the Green Bay Press-Gazette takes a closer look at cornerback Tramon Williams.
• The Packers' special teams will be scrutinized Saturday against the Browns, writes Jason Wilde of ESPNMilwaukee.com.
• Andrew Brandt of the National Football Post on Packers receiver Donald Driver's contract extension: "He's a Packer if there ever was one, now the longest-tenured player on the roster. That skinny kid from Alcorn that used to come by my room to tell me he'd be great turned out to be just that."
• Chicago Bears linebacker Pisa Tinoisamoa said his lost 2009 season only "added more fuel to my fire." Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune has more.
• The Bears are a "hungry" football team, general manager Jerry Angelo told Bob LeGere of the Daily Herald.
• Cornerback D.J. Moore is making a run at the Bears' nickel job, according to ESPNChicago.com.
• Bears rookie safety Major Wright ended practice Tuesday with an interception, notes the Chicago Sun-Times.
• John Shipley of the St. Paul Pioneer Press takes a look at what the Minnesota Vikings' offense would look like without Brett Favre at quarterback.
• Judd Zulgad of the Star Tribune explores the Vikings' cornerback position.
• Tom Pelissero of 1500ESPN.com has a special guest on his daily video update.
• Training camp matchups against Detroit Lions receiver Calvin Johnson will make Chris Houston better, writes Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press.
• The Lions took a look at a backfield with Kevin Smith and Jahvid Best playing together during practice, writes Chris McCosky of the Detroit News.

Be it through the mailbag, Facebook, Twitter or subliminal messages, I'm always interested in your feedback. Believe it or not, I appreciate it when you spur more complete thoughts or point out a hole in my argument. That's where we'll start this weekend.

On with it....

Randal of Cambridge, Minn., writes: Enjoyed your QB story but you are painting too broad of a brush. Who has Minnesota passed over in the draft that it should not have? Even with 20-20 hindsight, there has not been too many. What highly rated QB sat in the green room, while the Vikings drafted another position? Maybe Aaron Rodgers, but at that time Dante Culpepper looked pretty good. The issue is that they have rarely hit bottom. They have been too consistent. This is not the Rams or Lions who are in the top 10 most years.

Kevin Seifert: You make a fair point, Randal, and it's something I wish I had looked at prior to posting. I'm not ready to concede my primary point, but let's first examine exactly what you're talking about.

The chart below shows every first-round quarterback selected after the Vikings' spot over the past 20 years.


The two best quarterbacks on this list are Drew Brees and Rodgers. At both points, there was no indication the Vikings needed a franchise quarterback. Culpepper made the Pro Bowl in 2000, and in 2004 he produced his best-ever season. I can't blame the Vikings for passing over Brees in 2001 and Rodgers in 2005.

And with hindsight, of course, it's hard to find fault with the decisions to draft Adrian Peterson over Brady Quinn in 2007 and Kenechi Udeze over J.P Losman in 2004.

But I think we should tread carefully when considering a linear analysis of the past. Washington, for example, couldn't establish Jason Campbell as its long-term answer at quarterback after selecting him in 2005. But how can we know for sure that Campbell's career would have progressed in the same direction if he were taken by another team?

What if the Vikings had drafted him, for example, and allowed him to spend the past four seasons working with the same offensive coaches rather than experiencing the yearly turnover he had with the Redskins? Perhaps his future would have followed a different path. I'm not saying it would have, but we shouldn't overvalue hindsight in these situations.

And yes, it's true the Vikings weren't always in position to draft an elite quarterback because of their relative success the previous season. But we shouldn't give them a full pass on that. After all, it's within NFL rules to trade up and grab a player you feel strongly about. Denver did that in 2006 and would up with Jay Cutler -- six spots ahead of the Vikings. He was in the Pro Bowl by his third season.

So I guess the crux of my argument remains unchanged. While it's hard to heavily criticize the Vikings for the quarterbacks they have passed over in recent years, they're not blameless. You have to swing the bat -- even if it means trading up or trusting your ability to develop a prospect -- to get a hit. At some point, they're going to have to take the bat off their shoulder.

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Via Facebook, Andy passes along a link to former Green Bay receiver Javon Walker's latest trouble and writes: Another move Ted Thompson doesn't get credit for.

Kevin Seifert: Indeed. Walker missed 15 games in 2005 after tearing an anterior cruciate ligament, after which Thompson traded him to Denver for the No. 37 overall pick in the 2006 draft. (Thompson traded that pick away on draft day, but guard Daryn Colledge was the key player he selected with the resulting bundle.)

Although Walker had a 1,000-yard season with the Broncos in 2006, his career has since crashed. He's played in 19 games over the past three seasons and, at age 31, is out of the game. I'm not sure if Thompson foresaw any of Walker's ensuing troubles, but he certainly got a fair price for a player coming off a serious knee injury.

Andy's link gave rise to an interesting idea. Thompson has taken his lumps here and elsewhere, but what other moves should he be getting more credit for? I came up with a couple. Feel free to add or subtract in the comment section accompanying this post.

• Trading defensive tackle Corey Williams in 2008 for the No. 56 overall pick in that draft. Although the payoff didn't occur -- quarterback Brian Brohm, taken in that spot, was a bust -- Thompson got pretty decent value for a player he essentially replaced a year later with B.J. Raji.
• Hiring coach Mike McCarthy. There weren't many "hot lists" with McCarthy's name on it after the 2005 season. Thompson spent the time to find a coach who would mesh well with the draft-oriented philosophy he planned to use. In the big picture, McCarthy had made the playoffs twice in four seasons while coaching the league's youngest team. He's been a good fit where few would have predicted it prior to his arrival.

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Ian of East Leroy, Mich., finds a logic hole in our discussion about a trade that would send Washington defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth to Detroit: With the retirement of Chris Samuels and the acquisition of McNabb from Philadelphia, left tackle seems to be a priority for the Redskins. Acquiring Haynesworth would allow the Lions to draft Russell Okung instead of either Ndamukong Suh or Gerald McCoy. In effect the Redskins would also lose the top left tackle in the draft.

Kevin Seifert: Ian has made a good point: The Redskins essentially could be trading Haynesworth and Okung for Suh or McCoy and (presumably) a later pick in the draft. (That's assuming they don't take the No. 2 pick in exchange for Haynesworth, of course.)

It all would come down to how desperate Shanahan is to get Haynesworth off his team. Does he need to get something in return? Otherwise, he could always release him after the draft.

I guess I wouldn't make Okung the key to a Haynesworth trade. If you can get something in return for him, and still be in position to take Suh or McCoy, I think it might be worth it. But the original point is valid: The deal is more complicated at second glance.

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Brian of Chicago writes: Seems the Bears' biggest remaining needs are a "quarterbacking" safety and help on the OL. Dallas just released Ken Hamlin and Flozell Adams. Now, I'm hesitant on Adams mostly because of last year's debacle with Orlando Pace, and Flozell is the same age as OP. But to me Ken Hamlin is a slam dunk. Thoughts?

Kevin Seifert: Agreed on Adams. I'd stay away from him. Hamlin is a bit of a different story. He was a Pro Bowl player as recently as 2007, but since then he has one interception in his last 28 games.

I don't see him as anything more than a short-term answer at a position where the Bears really don't have many viable in-house candidates to start. He's better than what they have, and that's about the best thing I can say about him. It's possible the Bears could find an immediate starter in the draft, but they're not going to get two. I'd give him a hard look.

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Ben of Lincoln, Neb., writes: I want to know your feelings about the Lions picking Matthew Stafford last year. What I remember is everyone saying that the next year would have a better QB class, and that the Lions should pick a lineman. Now everyone this year is saying that this years QB class is not that great, and next years will be. Is the QB something that one has to evaluate for the current year, and not plan ahead, or do you still think the Lions should have waited?

Kevin Seifert: No, I think you take too big of a risk trying to project a class from a year out. The Lions considered Stafford the best player in the draft last season. You can argue with their evaluation if you want, but the bottom line is they would have made a mistake to subordinate their own draft board based on a 12-month projection of the upcoming class.

I wonder if those projections were based on Washington's Jake Locker entering this draft. He decided to return to school; ESPN's Mel Kiper said this week that Locker is a near-guaranteed No. 1 overall pick next season. Will he feel that way 11 months from now? It's just an educated guess and nothing more.

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Steve of Irvine writes: Do you think Suh is athletic enough to play defensive end on 1st/2nd down...then move inside on 3rd? That's the way the Lions would have used Anthony Hargrove.

Kevin Seifert: Yes, that was the plan for Hargrove had he joined the team via restricted free agency. I can't profess to be an expert on Suh's physical skills, but I've seen occasions where elite players become ordinary contributors when moved to a different position. I'm guessing Suh could play left end if he had to. But the best bet is he will be more dominant at tackle. You want your players in the position where they can maximize their skills and playmaking ability.

Minnesota did the same thing in 2003 with Kevin Williams, a player Suh has been compared to. Williams opened the season as the starting left end, where he was adequate. He moved inside full-time at about midseason and the difference was noticeable. The Vikings haven't tried that arrangement again.

» NFC Busts/Gems: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

» Draft Watch: Biggest needs (2/17) | Busts/gems (2/24) | Schemes, themes (3/3) | Recent history (3/10) | Needs revisited (3/17) | Under-the-radar needs (3/26) | History in that spot (3/31) | Draft approach (4/7) | Decision-makers (4/14) | Dream scenario/Plan B (4/21)

Each Wednesday leading up to the NFL draft (April 22-24), the ESPN.com blog network will take a division-by-division look at key aspects of the draft. Today's topic: Busts and late-round gems.

Chicago Bears

Gems: The Bears took a chance on an unknown with elite speed in the fifth round last year and came up with receiver Johnny Knox, a Division II college player. Knox caught 45 passes, including five touchdowns, as a rookie and made the Pro Bowl as a kickoff returner. Cornerback Zack Bowman, a fifth-round pick in 2008, has seven interceptions in 17 career games. He appears to have the makeup to be a long-term starter. Busts: Running back Cedric Benson, the No. 4 overall pick in 2005, was released after three years. Defensive end Dan Bazuin, a second-round pick in 2007, never played for the Bears.

Detroit Lions

Gems: Running back Aaron Brown, a sixth-round pick last year, proved to be an explosive and exciting playmaker. He'll get more playing time as he limits mental errors, but his speed and open-field running ability give him the capacity to be a difference-maker. Linebacker Zack Follett, a seventh-round pick in 2009, is a strong special teams player. Busts: The Lions' mid-decade mistakes, from quarterback Joey Harrington to receivers Charles Rogers and Mike Williams, have been well-chronicled. The Lions have only one player remaining from the 2006 draft, linebacker Ernie Sims, and receiver Calvin Johnson is the only 2007 draftee expected to make a significant impact in 2010.

Green Bay Packers

Gems: Defensive lineman Johnny Jolly, a sixth-round pick in 2006, has proved to be a solid starter at both tackle and now end in the Packers' 3-4 scheme. His immediate future is threatened by a looming trial for felony drug possession in Houston, but from a football perspective, he has been a hit. Guard Josh Sitton, a fourth-round pick in 2008, might have been the Packers' most consistent offensive lineman last season. Busts: Quarterback Brian Brohm, the No. 56 overall pick of the 2008 draft, stumbled from the start and didn't make it through his second year with the team. Among other things, Brohm struggled with his downfield accuracy. He is now on Buffalo's roster. Defensive lineman Justin Harrell, the No. 16 overall pick in 2007, has been plagued by what could ultimately be a career-ending back injury and has made minimal impact.

Minnesota Vikings

Gems: Center John Sullivan started 16 games in 2009, a year after Minnesota made him the No. 187 overall pick of the 2008 draft. Although he wasn't perfect, Sullivan has already given the Vikings more starts than many sixth-round picks provide. A fourth-rounder in 2006, defensive end Ray Edwards has been a full-time starter for the past three years. Over that span, he has 18.5 regular-season sacks plus another four in the playoffs. Some have expected even more from him, but that's pretty good production for a second-day pick. Edwards was part of a draft that has helped make up for a disastrous 2005 affair. Busts: In that 2005 draft, the Vikings had three picks in the top 49, but none made an impact. Receiver Troy Williamson couldn't catch the ball, defensive end Erasmus James tore the same anterior cruciate ligament twice and offensive lineman Marcus Johnson couldn't hold a starting job.

I’ll credit Twitter pal mistah_jay for this one:

"@espn_nfcnblog: Fun day for Ted Thompson today. We're going to get to see both Matt Flynn and Brian Brohm get significant playing time."

Indeed, Brohm has officially been named Buffalo’s starter for Sunday’s game at Atlanta. Flynn could play Sunday if the Packers blow out the Seahawks, as many of us expect. Both players were part of Thompson’s 2008 draft class in Green Bay.

We’ll soon be emerging from what I consider the dog days of the NFL season. The novelty of regular-season games has long worn off, but we seem a little too far from the playoff chase to start making January plans. Thanks for sticking with us during this difficult time.

As always, you can vent, complain, complement and question anything and everything through the mailbag, Facebook or Twitter.

Let’s touch on a few issues in this weekend’s mailbag:

Jon of Thunder Bay, Ontario, writes: Do the Packers get any kind of compensation for having Brian Brohm signed off of their practice squad?

Kevin Seifert: Nope, they sure don’t. That’s the risk of carrying any player on the practice squad, and it should spell out the ambivalent feeling the Packers had about Brohm 18 months after making him the No. 56 overall pick of the 2008 draft.

In fact, Brohm’s departure offers us an avenue to perform an early evaluation of the Packers’ 2008 draft, one in which they traded out of the first round in order to amass three picks in the second round. Suffice it to say, the Packers haven’t gotten much immediate help from this group. Let’s take a look:

Round 2a: Receiver Jordy Nelson
Comment: As a reserve, 44 catches in 22 games

Round 2b: Quarterback Brian Brohm
Comment: Reached bust status in less than two years

Round 2c: Cornerback Pat Lee
Comment: Injuries have limited him to two tackles in five games

Round 3: Tight end Jermichael Finley
Comment: High upside derailed by 2009 knee injury

Round 4a: Linebacker Jeremy Thompson
Comment: Hasn’t found a position and buried on depth chart

Round 4b: Guard Josh Sitton
Comment: Starting at right guard

Round 5: Tackle Breno Giacomini
Comment: Backup has gotten no turn in revolving door

Round 7a: Quarterback Matt Flynn
Comment: No. 2 status by default thanks to Brohm

Round 7b: Receiver Brett Swain
Comment: Strong on special teams but lost for season (knee)

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Keith of Detroit writes: Around here, Calvin Johnson is starting to come under heavy scrutiny. He is consistently dropping passes during the games and is starting to have the look of someone that has been "Lionized." (To be Lionized means you become a soul-less football zombie, you are strictly in survival mode. This occurs to various players and coaches because of the infectious losing and hopeless atmosphere. Other prime examples include Rod Marinelli, Roy Williams, Bobby Ross, Darryl Rogers, James Hall.)

Kevin Seifert: Interesting way of putting it, Keith. I like it. I know it feels like Johnson is “consistently” dropping passes, but in reality we’ve got him with three drops via ESPN Stats & Information. Sometimes I wonder if some of the superior catches and plays he made last season has raised expectations for what should be his baseline play this season.

Also working against Johnson in this regard is his low-key demeanor. I’ve interviewed him a couple of times and found him to be friendly but pretty quiet. He’s not expressive and doesn’t always have much to say.

Does that mean he’s been “Lionized?” I’m not willing to go there yet. Johnson also has been dealing with a knee injury for much of the season. But as we discussed earlier this season, I think being “Lionized” is a real and dangerous condition, one that poses perhaps the biggest challenge that new coach Jim Schwartz will face.

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Angry Tom writes: Just so you are aware of it, you can list Jay Cutler is FALLING OFF THE PLANET for all I care. Here is a clue that you are missing. HE IS THE BEARS QB AND WILL BE FOR THE NEXT 10 YEARS. I could care less if he throws FIFTY INT's it is not going to change it. If you want to actually CONTRIBUTE to the discussion why not talk about the lack of help he has from the offensive coaching and the O-line. Here, I think this would be interesting to know. How many times have each of the starting QB's been Hit, Hurried, and Sacked. SHOCKER. I bet that OLD MAN 4 is at the bottom - BY FAR.

Kevin Seifert: Glad to hear from you, AT. It’s been a while. Unfortunately, quarterback hits and hurries aren’t officially tracked and therefore aren’t fair to compare between teams. (Each team’s defensive coaches keep their own statistics in those categories, using their own criteria.) But in terms of sacks, it’s just a fact that Cutler and Favre have taken an equal amount.

Here’s your NFC North starter totals:

Aaron Rodgers: 41
Jay Cutler: 19
Brett Favre: 19
Matthew Stafford: 17 (in seven games)

I don’t doubt that Cutler has faced some jailbreak situations, but I can’t put pass protection high on the list of explanations for his 17 interceptions this season. In fact, I would say the offensive line is more to blame for not giving Cutler a good run-game option than it is for putting him in pressure passing situations.

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Craig of Oconomowoc, Wis., writes: Do you think it possible that the Packers and Lions could pull an inter-division trade involving Ernie Sims and Aaron Kampman. Sims is getting outplayed by DeAndre Levy in DET and Kampman isn't the right fit for GB's 3-4 scheme. It could fill a need for both teams. Am I crazy thinking this could actually benefit both teams?

Kevin Seifert: First, I think that should be “intra-division,” but I’m not the best grammarian. Anyone?

Secondly, Kampman would probably fit in better in a 4-3 scheme, which Detroit runs. (Although coach Jim Schwartz’s emphasis on heavier players might make his scheme less than ideal for Kampman.) Would Sims excel as a 3-4 linebacker? I’m not sure.

Regardless, it’s highly unlikely this trade would ever happen. Most division teams measure their own status against that of their rivals. If the Packers make a trade that helps the Lions get better, or vice versa, it’s probably going to be a net loss. That’s why you rarely, if ever, see intra-division trades.

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Jeremy of Grand Forks, North Dakota writes: With this season coming to an end soon and Favre being forty and possible not coming back next year, I'm wondering if having him to learn from has had any effect on Jackson or Rosenfels to make you think that when he leaves the Vikings quarterback situation will not go back to what it was before this season?

Kevin Seifert: I’ll stand by what I’ve said before: The Vikings’ next quarterback is not currently on their roster. I personally believe the Tarvaris Jackson experiment has run its course and that he will have an opportunity to leave via free agency this winter. And nothing that happened during training camp convinced me that coach Brad Childress would feel comfortable naming Sage Rosenfels his starter.

Green Bay’s weekly turnover on the offensive line has been a regular focus of this blog, and it looks like there is at least a possibility of another change this week against San Francisco.

Center Scott Wells reported concussion symptoms this week and was held out of practice Thursday. With center Jason Spitz already on injured reserve, the Packers would be left with undrafted rookie Evan Dietrich-Smith against the 49ers. Coach Mike McCarthy said he hopes Wells will be able to practice Friday but that his status was “up in the air,” according to Jason Wilde of ESPN Milwaukee.

By my count, that would make the seventh different combination of starters in 10 games for the Packers. Some of that has been injury-related, but none of it has been positive for creating efficient and cohesive play.

Continuing around the NFC North:

• Opposing offenses are turning their protection toward Packers cornerback Charles Woodson because of his frequent blitzes, write Greg A. Bedard and Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
• The Packers replaced quarterback Brian Brohm on the practice squad with former Central Washington starter Mike Reilly. Here is some background from Pete Dougherty the Green Bay Press-Gazette.
• Minnesota coach Brad Childress’ contract extension will kick in immediately and supersede his previous deal, writes Judd Zulgad of the Star Tribune.
• Could the Vikings lose a coordinator or two after the season? Sean Jensen of the St. Paul Pioneer Press looks into it.
• Chicago general manager Jerry Angelo: “I’m not alarmed.” Mike Mulligan of the Chicago Sun-Times has more.
• Interesting statistic for Bears fans: Philadelphia is 0-7 all-time on Sunday night, writes Vaughn McClure of the Chicago Tribune.
• The Bears could be without tight end Desmond Clark (neck) on Sunday night, according to Jeff Dickerson of ESPN Chicago.
• Detroit will be blacked out Sunday for the third time in five home games, writes Tom Kowalski of Mlive.com.
• The Lions’ dropped passes have been “contagious,” coach Jim Schwartz said. Nicholas J. Cotsonika of the Detroit Free Press explores the issue.
• John Niyo of the Detroit News traces the similar career paths of Schwartz and Cleveland coach Eric Mangini.

It looks like the Brian Brohm era is over in Green Bay.

Brohm, the 56th overall pick of the 2008 draft, signed Wednesday night with Buffalo, according to multiple media reports, including this one by the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Brohm has spent the season on the Packers’ practice squad and was eligible to sign onto any team’s 53-man roster. The Packers tried to match Buffalo’s offer, according to the Journal Sentinel, but Brohm declined and instead chose a fresh start with the Bills.

The Packers drafted Brohm before Aaron Rodgers developed into their long-term starter. It’s a good thing: Brohm struggled in both of his training camps with the Packers and was far behind Matt Flynn, a seventh-round pick in 2008, on the depth chart.

The Brohm situation might be the reason the Packers released receiver Jake Allen; they didn’t immediately fill his roster spot Wednesday. Allen was claimed on waivers by Cleveland.

Continuing around the NFC North:

• New defensive coordinator Dom Capers has elevated the Packers to the NFL’s No. 4 ranking against the run, notes Pete Dougherty of the Green Bay Press-Gazette.
• Jason Wilde of ESPN Milwaukee offers his spin on the Rodgers-Alex Smith story.
• Following up on Wednesday’s stadium hiccup in Minnesota: The Vikings angrily rejected a lease extension offer from the commission that runs the Metrodome. Owner Zygi Wilf said in a letter that the offer, coming at a time when he is seeking a new stadium, makes him question the future of the Vikings in Minnesota.
• A contract extension for coach Brad Childress isn’t finalized, writes Judd Zulgad of the Star Tribune.
• Chicago has turned down all on-camera interview requests with NBC in advance of Sunday night’s game against Philadelphia, writes Brad Biggs of the Chicago Sun-Times.
• Bears center Olin Kreutz (back) should play Sunday night, writes Jeff Dickerson of ESPN Chicago.
• Bears quarterback Jay Cutler is 4-9 in his 13 career night games, notes Dan Pompei of the Chicago Tribune.
• Detroit signed cornerback DeAngelo Smith off the Bears’ practice squad, the eighth defensive back they have added since the start of the season, writes Nicholas J. Cotsonika of the Detroit Free Press.
• Lions safety Louis Delmas says his infected tooth has healed, reports John Niyo of the Detroit News.

Posted by ESPN.com’s Kevin Seifert

My morning-after take on the NFC North’s cutdown day: Green Bay had some shockers and Detroit engineered a few surprises. Chicago and Minnesota were entirely predictable.

Packers general manager Ted Thompson has scheduled a mid-afternoon news conference to comment the organization’s decision to part ways with quarterback Brian Brohm, a second-round pick in 2008, and safety Anthony Smith, a free-agent pickup who seemed to be challenging for a starting job. I’ll get you details from that event as soon as I can. I'm also itching to compare how each team's draft class fared, but we might as well wait until the middle of the week when we know for sure who will be on the opening-week roster.

Remember, teams can start signing players to their practice squads Sunday at noon ET. Most NFL teams will continue to adjust their roster over the next few days through waiver claims, trades and signings of vested free agents who were released or otherwise available. So while the flurry of moves occurred Saturday, the trickle will continue for at least another 48 hours.

For now, let’s take a spin through Sunday coverage in the NFC North:

• David Haugh of the Chicago Tribune has a one-on-one interview with quarterback Jay Cutler. Let’s just say you get a pretty good feel for Cutler’s personality through the brevity of some of his answers.
• Bob LeGere of the Daily Herald also spoke with Cutler, who talked expansively about his offseason visits to see children hospitalized with diabetes.
• Bears cornerback Charles Tillman was activated from the physically unable to perform (PUP) list and now has four practices to get ready for live action, notes Brad Biggs of the Chicago Sun-Times.
• Here’s coverage of the Brohm move from Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and Pete Dougherty of the Green Bay Press-Gazette. The general conclusion: Brohm didn’t show enough progress from his disastrous rookie season to suggest he would develop into a competent NFL quarterback.
• Dougherty believes the Packers might just use two quarterbacks on their active roster this season. Here’s his roster analysis.
• Detroit cut defensive tackle Shaun Smith because “his attitude and work ethic keeps getting in the way,” writes John Niyo of the Detroit News. The move also allows the Lions to avoid paying Smith a $350,000 roster bonus.
• Carlos Monarrez of the Detroit Free Press wonders if the Lions’ offensive line has turned the corner.
• Two young receivers made the Vikings' roster, at least for now: Jaymar Johnson and Darius Reynaud. Chip Scoggins and Judd Zulgad of the Star Tribune explain.
• Tom Powers of the St. Paul Pioneer Press wants Packers fans to calm down over Minnesota’s acquisition of Brett Favre: “Being a football fan means you get to blow off steam, go crazy and have a good time. But do people have to act like, what's the term I want ... disgusting animals?”

Posted by ESPN.com’s Kevin Seifert

Check here for a full list of Green Bay’s player moves.

Biggest surprise: Brian Brohm was the 56th player taken in the 2008 draft, the third quarterback overall. For that reason alone it’s a shock the Packers have given up on him so quickly, despite another shaky preseason in which he finished with a passer rating of 54.5. He made some incremental progress this summer, and it’s possible the Packers will re-sign him to their practice squad Sunday. But it’s clear they were willing to risk losing him altogether. It’s a stunning fall for a player the Packers originally thought was polished and ready to immediately step in as the No. 2 quarterback behind Aaron Rodgers.

Second-biggest surprise: The Packers kept all three of their fullbacks while leaving their tailback depth pretty thin, at least for now. Fullbacks Korey Hall and John Kuhn are good special teams players, but doesn’t one make the other expendable? The Packers obviously don’t agree. They kept both players -- along with rookie fullback Quinn Johnson -- while waiving tailbacks Tyrell Sutton and Kregg Lumpkin. The decisions leave DeShawn Wynn as the only healthy backup behind starter Ryan Grant. (Brandon Jackson is recovering from an ankle injury.)

Third-biggest surprise: Veteran receiver Ruvell Martin was released in favor of first-year receiver Brett Swain. I’m guessing this was a special teams decision, as Swain was having some success on coverage teams this summer. But Martin has been a productive reserve over the past three seasons, and I didn’t hear too much about his roster spot being in jeopardy.

Fourth-biggest surprise: Safety Anthony Smith, signed to a free agent contract this offseason, was released. There have been suggestions he was pushing starter Atari Bigby. Not anymore. Neither of general manager Ted Thompson's veteran free agent pickups, Smith and center Duke Preston, made the final roster.

No-brainer: Placing defensive lineman Justin Harrell (back) on injured reserve was dramatic but needed to be done. The Packers have carried him on their 53-man roster for the past two years even though he has missed more games (19) than he has played in (13) because of various injuries. He wouldn’t have made it to training camp this year if he weren’t a first-round draft pick. It was time for the Packers to cut their losses.

What’s next: One way or the other, the Packers will have to address their quarterback depth. It might simply mean adding Brohm or a waiver claim to the practice squad. But it’s also possible the Packers will look elsewhere for depth behind Rodgers. In news reports, they have been linked to Tampa Bay’s Luke McCown; but it will likely take a draft pick to pry him away from the Buccaneers. Backup Matt Flynn has been limited by a shoulder injury, so from the outside it would seem risky to enter the season with Rodgers and Flynn as the only active quarterbacks.

Posted by ESPN.com’s Kevin Seifert

A few NFC North nuggets as we await official word from the respective teams:

• Minnesota has waived quarterback John David Booty, according to Jason La Canfora of the NFL Network. That seemingly answers the quandary we posed Friday night after a relative debacle of quarterback play in the Vikings’ preseason finale. Remember, Booty has practice squad eligibility. You can probably assume that Tarvaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels will remain on the roster behind starter Brett Favre.
• There are disputing reports on the future of Green Bay quarterback Brian Brohm. The National Football Post is reporting Brohm will be released, a move that might suggest the Packers have a deal in the works for a backup quarterback. But the Green Bay Press-Gazette reports Brohm has not been informed of the move. Update: The Press-Gazette has confirmed the move. Brohm, a second-round pick last year, is eligible for the practice squad. Stay tuned.
• Another deal the Packers reportedly have the works: Acquiring defensive back Derrick Martin from Baltimore. Aaron Wilson of the Carroll County Times has the story. Martin has worked at cornerback and safety and would presumably cost a late-round 2010 draft pick.

We’ll continue to keep you updated on significant news ahead of official announcements.

Posted by ESPN.com’s Kevin Seifert

In lieu of our regular format, we’ll take a spin through three preseason finales Friday morning. More than anything else, teams try to avoid injuries in the last preseason game. But unfortunately for them, a few players were hurt Thursday night:

Chicago 26, Browns 23

• Cornerback Zack Bowman celebrated his return with a diving interception on the first play of the game, and then later left the game with stiffness in the hamstring that has bothered him most of this summer. Bowman is an excellent talent and likely starter when he’s healthy, but that latter part has been a problem. The same goes for tailback Kevin Jones, who was carted off the field after suffering a left ankle injury in the first quarter. The Bears have been hoping to use Jones to avoid overworking starter Matt Forte, but without him, they’ll be left with Garrett Wolfe and Adrian Peterson. More news to come on the Jones front.
• On a night when quarterback Jay Cutler didn’t throw a pass, the standout player was receiver Johnny Knox. The rookie caught two passes for 61 yards, had a 50-yard kickoff return and a 38-yard punt return to set up a late score. The performance should solidify his roster spot. I’m not sure how much he’ll play in the early going, but Knox has the raw speed and playmaking ability to eventually develop into a player.

Local coverage: Chicago Tribune, Chicago Sun-Times and ESPN Chicago.

Detroit 17, Buffalo 6

• We got more of the same from quarterback Matthew Stafford, which didn’t make the Lions’ looming decision any easier. Stafford showed some flashes with three bullet passes to receiver Calvin Johnson, one of which -- a 34-yard touchdown -- was called back because of penalty. Stafford also lost a fumble and threw an interception before leaving early in the second quarter. Coach Jim Schwartz wouldn’t tip his hand about who will start the Sept. 13 season opener at New Orleans, but it’s clear that rookie mistakes will be a part of Stafford’s early performances if he does start.
• It was an interesting night for the Lions’ rookie class. Stafford was up and down. Sixth-round pick Aaron Brown, meanwhile, rushed for 56 yards. But third-round pick Derrick Williams mishandled another punt and might have difficulty making the team. I would imagine the Lions will find a place for him, but he certainly hasn’t proved ready to return kickoffs or punts as expected.

Local coverage: Detroit Free Press, Detroit News, and Mlive.com.

Tennessee 27, Green Bay 13

• Rookie defensive lineman B.J. Raji had a sack and three tackles, but he also left with a right ankle injury and did not return. Whether Raji opens the season as a starter was already in doubt after his two-week holdout; if he can’t play at left end the Packers will be happy with Johnny Jolly there. Coach Mike McCarthy told reporters that he had no reason to believe Raji’s injury was serious but would have more information Friday.
• Under some duress from the Titans' pass rush, third-string quarterback Brian Brohm completed 20 of 28 passes for 154 yards. He didn’t throw a touchdown or an interception, but showed enough to increase his chances for getting another year to develop in the Packers' offense. His longest pass was a 33-yard catch-and-run to receiver Jordy Nelson, but for the most part he threw short and prevented mistakes. The Packers have a lot invested in Brohm and would prefer not to have to replace him, via trade or waiver claim, this weekend.

Local coverage: Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Green Bay Press-Gazette, Packers.com.