NFC North: Calvin Johnson

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Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Detroit Lions in 2012.

Dream scenario (12-4): The team moves past its string of silly/immature problems, tightening up not only its off-field behavior but also its discipline on the field during games. Mikel Leshoure and Jahvid Best give the Lions a power/speed dimension in the backfield they lacked for most of last season. Rookie receiver Ryan Broyles' knee heals quickly enough to provide a legitimate fourth option among receivers and further spread out opposing defenses. Defensive tackle Nick Fairley realizes his playmaking potential and teams up with Ndamukong Suh to provide consistent and dominant interior play. Fairley, Suh, Cliff Avril and Kyle Vanden Bosch protect an undermanned secondary, and the Lions make big defensive plays against opponents that feel pressure to keep up with Detroit's offense.

Nightmare scenario (7-9): Best and Leshoure don't provide the balance the Lions hope for, either because of injuries or skill deterioration. Broyles takes longer than expected to return, Titus Young has a sophomore slump, and opponents flock to receiver Calvin Johnson. Left tackle Jeff Backus can't hold up for another season. Despite the formidable defensive line, the Lions can't cover for their secondary and give up too many big plays.
We're Black and Blue All Over:

It was almost an afterthought amid discussion of quarterback Jay Cutler's new weapons, the weight loss of receiver Johnny Knox and the configuration of the offensive line. But we might as well acknowledge it: Newcomer Michael Bush was the Chicago Bears' first-team tailback during Wednesday's organized team activity as starter Matt Forte stays away from the facility in a contract dispute.

Forte has yet to sign his $7.7 million franchise tag while pushing for a long-term extension. If there is an end in sight to those negotiations, it hasn't been reported publicly. While no one thinks Forte will elect to miss regular-season games, it isn't clear if he'll report for any part of the Bears' offseason program or training camp.

Bush, via Jeff Dickerson of ESPNChicago.com: "Nobody has ever brought up Forte's name or wished he was here or anything to make me feel uncomfortable. But me being me, [I think] Forte needs to come on out so we can get it going. But I know he's got to take care of himself and his family as well."

To be continued.

Now for our morning spin around the division:
A committee of ESPN experts -- including Trent Dilfer, Mel Kiper, Gary Horton, Matt Williamson -- assembled this offseason to create a unique version of our traditional Power Rankings.

Naturally, NFC North teams are featured prominently in what amounts to a three-year projection of Power Rankings for the 2015 season Insider. The Green Bay Packers received the top spot as the team best equipped to compete three years from now, while the Detroit Lions were not far behind at No. 6.

The file requires an Insider subscription to read in full, but I can pass along where our four teams ranked and also a glimpse at the methodology used. Here is how the committee evaluated each team and the degree of impact each category had:
  • Roster (32.5 percent of total score): Players under 30 emphasized
  • Coaching (20 percent): Capability and stability of current staff
  • Quarterback (17.5 percent): Where quarterback play would be in three years
  • Draft (15 percent): Based on team's 2012 class and how many picks available in next three years.
  • Front office (15 percent): Ability to manage roster and market's attraction to free agents.

Now on to the NFC North rankings with comments from me:

1. Green Bay Packers
Seifert comment:
The presence of a 28-year-old MVP quarterback and one of the NFL's top general manager-coach combinations puts the Packers on an ideal long-term path.

6. Detroit Lions
Seifert comment:
Quarterback Matthew Stafford had a 5,000-yard season before his 24th birthday. That's a nice start. General manager Martin Mayhew has elevated the team's talent level every season of his tenure and most of the Lions' key players -- Stafford, receiver Calvin Johnson, tight end Brandon Pettigrew, defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, safety Louis Delmas and linebacker Stephen Tulloch -- are under 30.

17. Chicago Bears
Seifert comment:
Jay Cutler is a legitimate franchise quarterback, but the best players on the Bears' defense are all over 30. That list includes defensive end Julius Peppers, linebackers Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs, and cornerback Charles Tillman.

31. Minnesota Vikings
Seifert comment:
Questions about quarterback Christian Ponder's long-term prospects made it difficult for the committee to project future success. There are also concerns about a lack of young impact players on defense. Defensive end Jared Allen is 30 and linebacker Chad Greenway is 29.
We're Black and Blue All Over:

Let's take a break from our (relatively) serious coverage of the Minnesota Vikings' stadium bill to note some highly significant intersections of the NFC North and reality television.

First, Green Bay Packers receiver Donald Driver made it through another week on "Dancing with the Stars" and is headed to the semifinals of the competition. I guess that means we'll need to ramp up our "DWTS" coverage. Via Twitter, Driver said: "I want to bring the Mirror Ball to Titletown." The question now is if Titletown is ready for the Mirror Ball.

Meanwhile, EW.com reports that Detroit Lions defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh is part of a new celebrity dating show on Fox called "The Choice." New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski is also a cast member.

Whether this appearance fits into Suh's offseason image repair plan remains to be seen.

With that, let's continue around the NFC North:

NFC North weekend mailbag

May, 5, 2012
May 5
8:00
AM ET
There's always something these days. The week after the draft is typically deep-breath time for the NFL, but the events of this week had us running hither and thither on the NFC North blog. Through it all, I saw everything you've submitted via the mailbag, Twitter and Facebook and tried to respond when possible. Another attempt forthcoming:

Brian of Minneapolis has watched the NFL issue severe punishments following its investigation into the New Orleans Saints' bounty program and can't reconcile them with relatively light in-game punishment in issues of player safety: My frustration as a fan is seeing the referees on game day powerless to enforce penalties beyond the standard 15-yard penalty for repeat offenders. Fines may come later, but I don't see the behavior deterred on game day. What if the NFL adopted a rule mandating an ejection for two unnecessary roughness or unsportsmanlike conduct penalties in a game?

Kevin Seifert: As Brian pointed out later in his note, there is sports precedent for progressive in-game penalties, including the "persistent infringement" aspect of soccer. (Yes, I'm sure there are many of you who would protest using "football" and "soccer" in the same sentence, but that's for another day.)

Normally I would say there would be little chance for such a dramatic change to the NFL's in-game rules. Referees have the authority to eject a player on a first offense if it is egregious enough, but what Brian is referring to is deterring standard roughness or unsportsmanlike infractions by elevating the punishments within a game.

Given how focused NFL commissioner Roger Goodell appears to be on the player-safety issue, however, I couldn't rule out this type of change in coming years. In essence, if this kind of rule were enacted, a player could be ejected after hitting a player out of bounds and then roughing the punter.

Many of us would cry foul at another attempt to reduce the violence of an inherently violent game, but we've already seen Goodell act repeatedly with no concern for that argument. Who knows what's next?


Serge of Windsor saw our post on the Detroit Lions' offense and writes: I think [rookie receiver] Ryan Broyles will have a significant impact on the Lions' offensive explosive capability. The Lions already have a couple deep threats in Calvin Johnson and Titus Young … however, their impact was negated through double teams in deep cover 2 schemes. What has been missing -- sorry, while Nate Burleson is a class act and a great influence in the locker room, he has been very average on the field -- and what the Lions see in Broyles, is a receiver that is able to punish a defense for playing such schemes by finding windows underneath and gaining yards after the catch. In theory, this will eventually force defenses out of such schemes and open up deep opportunities for Calvin Johnson and Titus Young to make explosive plays downfield.

Kevin Seifert: Interesting theory, Serge, especially if Broyles turns out to be the kind of open-field runner that draft evaluators believe he is. He does appear to have all the skills necessary to be a front-line slot receiver.

But I'm not convinced defenses will deprioritize deep coverage, especially against Johnson, if the Lions have stronger weapons underneath. Johnson is going to draw maximum attention as often as defenses can arrange for it. I don't think a slot receiver, no matter how talented he is, can draw coverage away from Johnson.

What Broyles will do is make more explosive plays when he gets his hands on the ball in the open field than, say, tight ends Brandon Pettigrew or Tony Scheffler. The Lions would be a more explosive offense with Broyles, but that doesn't necessarily mean defenses will make it any easier for Johnson, and to a lesser extent Young, make deep downfield plays against them. I'm pretty sure I would take my chances against anyone other than Calvin Johnson.


Ben of Denver thought that Mike Daniels, the Green Bay Packers' fourth-round draft choice, deserved to be in this week's discussion about the team's desire to get more "juice" in its defensive front: I think he at least deserved to be mentioned in the article, as he was brought in to do and has just as much of an opportunity to bring exactly the same thing that [Anthony] Hargrove was signed for, inside pass rush. I am very excited about the injection of explosiveness, talent, and depth to our front seven.

Kevin Seifert: Fair point. Daniels had seven sacks as an inside pass-rusher at Iowa and has a naturally athletic frame. According to Scouts Inc., Daniels put on 50 pounds in college to play defensive tackle at 291 pounds. In its pre-draft report, Scouts Inc. gave Daniels its highest grade for quickness (hands/feet) and toughness/motor. Here is an excerpt:
"Step late getting to the quarterback at times but disruptive nonetheless and excels at moving quarterback off the spot. Quickly reacts to snap and flashes the ability to shoot gaps. Above-average hand fighter that flashes effective swim, rip and push-pull moves. Can shake offensive linemen with spin move. Gets hands up when sees quarterback start throwing motion. Flashes the ability to get under centers and drive them back but average overall power as a bull rusher. … Active hands make it difficult for blockers to lock onto frame. Flashes the ability to counter when offensive linemen get their hands inside his initially. First-step quickness is a notch below elite. Rarely gets beat to the point of attack and ability to explode upfield in addition to leverage helps mask lack of ideal size. Shows good foot speed working down the line and fighting off cut blocks."

The point of the post was that the Packers have taken a very focused approach to their offseason, seeking out players with the skills to be disruptive on the line of scrimmage. Daniels certainly fits that description and should have received a mention in the post.


Chuck of Guilin, China, writes: I have seen videos and read numerous slams on the Chicago Bears' OL. I thought they had two starters coming off 2011 injured reserve, no more Mike Martz and, most important, Mike Tice likes his group of young linemen. If Tice is what everyone says he is, why all the media flack?

Kevin Seifert: That's definitely the counter-argument to the media criticism the Bears have received. From the big picture, I see where the criticism has come from. The Bears have had to patch together their line in each of the past two seasons, rolling through various combinations and schemes until they found something that worked. In the process, some of their linemen -- like left tackle J'Marcus Webb -- looked pretty bad.

The Bears' decision not to add personnel means they have placed a lot of faith in Tice. In addition to his role as offensive coordinator, they want him to mold a functioning line group out of players who haven't always gotten the job done in the past two years. Success is usually a combination of player skill, good coaching and luck. The Bears have faith in some players whose skills have not always been obvious from the outside.


Facebook friend Jerry asks: Since the free agent and draftees by the Vikings all seem to be second-tier WR's, is there any chance the Vikings will add an impact player from free agency still? Say a Braylon Edwards, Terrell Owens, Plaxico Burress?

Kevin Seifert: While I agree the Vikings have some question marks at the receiver position, it should be pointed out that they've already taken a dip into the veteran free-agent market and come up with Jerome Simpson. I'm not sure they have any plans beyond that. For now, they'll go with Percy Harvin, Michael Jenkins, Simpson, their pair of pass-catching tight ends, and hope that perhaps Greg Childs or Jarius Wright develop into a contributor.
We're Black and Blue All Over:

Monday's scheduled adjournment of the Minnesota state legislature came and went without resolution on any significant issue, meaning the session will continue on. That gives the Minnesota Vikings stadium bill a chance to be heard and approved at some point between now and May 21, the constitutionally required day to adjourn.

As the Star Tribune explains, there are at least two other issues -- business-tax relief and bonding -- that legislators appear to have put ahead in line of the stadium bill.

It's impossible to know how long those issues will take to resolve, and there's no sense trying to project the timetable. We'll keep you updated on any progress.

Continuing around the NFC North:
Ryan BroylesBrett Deering/Getty ImagesBy drafting Ryan Broyles Detroit stuck to their philosophy of targeting talent instead of need.
As they approached their second-round position Friday night, the Detroit Lions sure seemed to be sitting pretty. A team with a shortage of cornerbacks was looking at a nice group of second-tier defensive backs whose time on the market appeared up. In addition, the draft's top center was still available if the Lions were inclined to secure a future replacement for starter Dominic Raiola.

With their No. 54 overall pick, the Lions passed on Wisconsin center Peter Konz, who ultimately went one slot later to the Atlanta Falcons.

They turned away a trio of cornerbacks: Vanderbilt's Casey Hayward, Montana's Trumaine Johnson and Central Florida's Josh Robinson. Hayward went at No. 62 to the Green Bay Packers, Johnson at No. 65 to the St. Louis Rams and Robinson at No. 66 to the Minnesota Vikings.

The Lions? Naturally, they went for a 24-year-old slot receiver who tore his anterior cruciate ligament last November. Oklahoma's Ryan Broyles will join a seemingly crowded position group that also includes Calvin Johnson, Nate Burleson and 2011 second-round pick Titus Young.

I got a number of immediate reactions along these lines of this one from @breynolds0324: "Sadly, best case he is 4th receiver. That secondary made [Matt] Flynn a multimillionaire. Feel like we are a secondary away from SB."

I understand where you're coming from, and perhaps some of you were assuaged when the Lions drafted Louisiana-Lafayette cornerback Dwight Bentley in the third round. But I feel like many of you allowed your immediate emotions to overtake rational thought, and more importantly, what should be a clear understanding of how the Lions operate under general manager Martin Mayhew and coach Jim Schwartz.

You can object to the relative lack of attention the Lions have paid their secondary during this rebuilding process. Feel free to dispute their assessment of the talent they've passed over. But by now, like it or not, you should have come to expect that they will follow their board in as much of a vacuum as any team in the NFL. And I hope you also realize that approach has left the Lions short in the secondary but is probably the single-biggest factor in their return to contention.

"You don't solve needs by drafting poor players," Lions coach Jim Schwartz told reporters in Detroit. "… There's a discipline that goes into it. You have to be able to stick with that philosophy. The philosophy is: 'Talent rules the board.' … If you chase need, you're chasing a moving target. What looks like a need one day might not be a need another day. If you have the discipline to say, 'Hey look, let's get good football players that fit a philosophy that we have a plan for, that continue to be the highest rated guys on your board,' then you're going to be successful over the long run.

"Even in this organization in the past, I think everybody knows some examples where this organization reached for certain players because of needs. I don't see how that solves your need. When it's all said and done, the need is still there."

It would be reasonable to question whether, say, Hayward would have been a reach at No. 54 when the Packers selected him just a few spots later. But the more relevant question is whether the Lions would have left a more talented player on the board. And in the Lions' evaluation, they would have. That made their decision easy Friday night at No. 54.

Broyles is one of the most productive receivers in the history of college football, having caught an NCAA-record 349 passes in his career. Just five months after surgery to repair his ACL, he ran the 40-yard dash in 4.57 seconds. Mayhew, whose success in recent drafts grants him some leeway in making such judgments, told reporters: "If the guy were healthy now he'd have been gone way before our pick."

And while they are in fact stacked at the front end of their depth chart, the Lions in reality were one injury away from not being able to use offensive coordinator Scott Linehan's three-receiver set. Burleson, meanwhile, will turn 32 this summer. In other words, the Lions could be a year or two away from having an obvious need at receiver. As we discussed Thursday, the key to orderly transitions is acquiring the replacement before he is needed.

Look, the Lions don't need me to be an apologist for a decision -- and thus far, an entire draft -- that might not have much impact on their 2012 team. You have a right to dispute it. But you shouldn't be surprised, and the Lions' success to this point earns them at least a partial benefit of the doubt from me.
The Detroit Lions' decision to use a second-round draft pick on Oklahoma receiver Ryan Broyles is one we probably shouldn't examine too thoroughly until we've had a chance to hear from all concerned parties.

Broyles
Broyles
The fact is that Broyles tore an anterior cruciate ligament five months ago and hasn't fully recovered. He didn't work out at the NFL scouting combine but did get on the field for his pro day.

The Lions are relatively deep at receiver with Calvin Johnson, Nate Burleson and Titus Young. Broyles was a highly touted prospect before the injury, and so the success of this pick would seem to rest with his recovery and what plans the Lions have for him among their crowded receiving corps.

Regardless, you wonder how much either of the Lions' top two picks -- offensive lineman Riley Reiff and Broyles -- will contribute in 2012. That's not necessarily a bad thing. It could be seen from a position of strength, but it also means the Lions still haven't addressed their cornerback or safety positions. More a bit later this evening.
video
I can't bring myself to write another word about the "Madden Curse."

It's real. It's not real. Is it going to ruin the Detroit Lions season? Is it going to enhance it? Are robots, including Megatron, immune? I have no idea. Like most intangible, mystical figments of the netherworld, it's difficult to pinpoint, understand and project consequences for.

So on the occasion of Lions receiver Calvin Johnson winning a national vote Wednesday to make the cover, let's not freak about the Madden Curse. Let's instead note how thoroughly impressive Johnson was on the SportsNation reveal show when compared to an insufferable, and presumably nervous, Cam Newton.

The Carolina Panthers quarterback strutted around the stage as if he believed he was a pre-ordained winner. For a moment I wondered if ESPN producers had informed him before the show that he had won. Just before the announcement, Newton jokingly (I think) said he would toss free copies of the game to the crowd "like Frisbees" if he won. Utimately his "Cam-pain" didn't work.

All the while, Johnson sat back, chuckled, and didn't have much to say. When the announcement was made, Newton said: "I thought you guys loved me." Johnson said: "People voted. They got what they wanted. I am very grateful for that. This is great."

I don't want to pick on Newton. In truth, his approach offered us yet another example of the best thing about the Lions' return to competitiveness: It has introduced the country to Johnson's genuinely understated and mature personality. For the same reason it was nice to see him rewarded with a $132 million contract in March, I'm glad that it's him and his Calvin Johnson Jr. Foundation will draw the attention that goes with the Madden cover. That's all.
We're Black and Blue All Over:

We've discussed the possibility of North Carolina defensive end Quinton Coples falling out of the top 10 of the NFL draft and perhaps being available to the Chicago Bears at No. 19 overall. Coples is one of the top athletic talents available, and drafting him would presumably be a coup for the Bears.

Or would it?

In a mailbag column, Dan Pompei of the Chicago Tribune suggests the Bears could and should pass on Coples for the same reason other teams might: His reported work ethic questions.
Pompei: "I think Coples will fall out of the top 10, and I think he will fall out of the top 20. And he should. Coples is similar to [Julius] Peppers athletically, but it's an insult to Peppers to say Coples plays like him. Peppers plays hard. Coples does not. … Personally, I would never take a player who has been labeled an underachiever or a dog early in the draft. With a first-round pick, I want a player who is going to raise the level of intensity on my team, not one who is going to lower it."

Something to keep in mind with the draft a day away.

Continuing around the NFC North:
Cam Newton vs. Calvin JohnsonESPN.com IllustrationIt's Cam Newton versus Calvin Johnson for the right to be cursed.

We're down to the final day of voting for the cover of "Madden 13," which according to our friends at SportsNation is a "neck-and-neck" battle between Detroit Lions receiver Calvin Johnson and Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton. ESPN's Zack McCann reported that Newton has a "small but vulnerable" lead in balloting that concludes Wednesday afternoon.

The winner will be announced at 5 p.m. ET Wednesday.

Johnson reiterated to Detroit-area reporters that he is "looking forward" to being on the cover of the wildly popular game if he wins the voting. Newton challenged Johnson to a live, one-on-one game of Madden in the video below, and on Tuesday, Johnson said: "Don't worry. Don't worry. I got something for that. Leave it at that. We've got something for that."

Newton has dubbed his push to win his "Cam-paign Challenge." We'll get a final answer Wednesday -- if you can bear the suspense.

video

Detroit Lions receiver Calvin Johnson should get the cover of "Madden 13" for this feat alone. As part of his visit to ESPN headquarters Tuesday, Johnson set a SportsNation record for catching (and holding onto) more footballs than any other human (or robot) ever to attempt the challenge. Check out Johnson's creativity and understated competitiveness in the video.
During his visit Tuesday to ESPN.com headquarters, Detroit Lions receiver Calvin Johnson sat down for a SportsNation chat. One of the questions: Was he worried about the so-called "Madden Curse" that befalls those who appear on the cover of Madden football?

Johnson
Johnson's response: "No, I don't worry about it. All things come to an end."

We're one step away from finding out if that's true.

Johnson has eliminated Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers in the semifinals of the tournament to determine the "Madden 13" cover. He'll face Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton for the honor.

In the chat, Johnson revealed that he plays more "FIFA" than "Madden," preferring the allure of Man City over more football in his free time. But will "Megatron" soon become synonymous with "Madden"? And Lions fans, will you vote for or against having your team represented on the cover? By all means, fill the comment section below. There's plenty of elbow room in there these days.

The winner will be revealed April 25 on SportsNation at 5 p.m. ET.
We're Black and Blue All Over:

The NFC North received a total of 16 nationally-televised games as part of the NFL's 2012 schedule, but to me the most groundbreaking news item was buried deep within the Green Bay Packers' news release. It read: "In 2012, the Packers will forego using their historic third jersey."

I never hid my bewilderment at the allure of the throwback jerseys the Packers used the past two years, a replica ensemble of their 1929 get-ups. The brown helmets, blue jerseys and tan pants just didn't work for me.

Long live the eye-snatchers.

Moving on to less important matters:

Detroit Lions schedule analysis

April, 17, 2012
Apr 17
7:50
PM ET
Breakdown: A 2011 playoff appearance, along with the quarterback-receiver combination of Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson, was enough to earn the Detroit Lions four prime-time games and a total of five nationally televised games.

The Lions will play at the San Francisco 49ers (Sunday night) in Week 2, at the Chicago Bears (Monday night) in Week 7 and at the Green Bay Packers (Sunday night) in Week 14, and will host the Atlanta Falcons (Saturday night) in Week 16. As usual, they'll also play Thanksgiving Day, hosting the Houston Texans in the early time slot (12:30 p.m. ET).

It's the first time in 14 years the Lions have had five nationally televised games and the second time in their history that four of them will come in prime time.

Complaint department: I'm not a huge fan of the Week 5 bye. Generally you would like to see it closer to the middle of the season to maximize injury rehabilitation. But it will give the Lions a chance to regroup for a difficult two-game stretch immediately after the bye. They'll play at the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 6 and then at the Bears.

Bracketing the schedule: The Lions play four of their first six games on the road, a stretch that includes the aforementioned bye. My first-blush reaction is that the Lions should be happy to be 3-3 at that point after traveling to San Francisco, Tennessee, Philadelphia and Chicago. But the payoff comes at the end of the season. A team in the playoff chase couldn't ask for anything more than to play its final two games at home. The Lions will do just that, hosting the Falcons in Week 16 and the Bears in Week 17 in a game that better be as much fun as it looks like from here.

Lions Regular-Season Schedule (All times ET)
Week 1: Sunday, Sept. 9, St. Louis, 1:00 PM
Week 2: Sunday, Sept. 16, at San Francisco, 8:20 PM
Week 3: Sunday, Sept. 23, at Tennessee, 1:00 PM
Week 4: Sunday, Sept. 30, Minnesota, 1:00 PM
Week 5: BYE
Week 6: Sunday, Oct. 14, at Philadelphia, 1:00 PM
Week 7: Monday, Oct. 22, at Chicago, 8:30 PM
Week 8: Sunday, Oct. 28, Seattle, 1:00 PM
Week 9: Sunday, Nov. 4, at Jacksonville, 1:00 PM
Week 10: Sunday, Nov. 11, at Minnesota, 1:00 PM
Week 11: Sunday, Nov. 18, Green Bay, 1:00 PM
Week 12: Thursday, Nov. 22, Houston, 12:30 PM
Week 13: Sunday, Dec. 2, Indianapolis, 1:00 PM
Week 14: Sunday, Dec. 9, at Green Bay, 8:20 PM
Week 15: Sunday, Dec. 16, at Arizona, 4:05 PM
Week 16: Saturday, Dec. 22, Atlanta, 8:30 PM
Week 17: Sunday, Dec. 30, Chicago, 1:00 PM
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