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Hopefully you all are enjoying a wonderful and respectful Memorial Day weekend. In the event you need an NFL fix in what is normally one of the quietest times of the year, let me point you in the direction of two ESPN Insider files with an NFC North focus.

The first comes from Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders , who thinks the Green Bay Packers will be taking a huge risk if they entrust their backup quarterback job to Graham Harrell. You need an Insider subscription to read the entire story, but Schatz believes the dropoff from Aaron Rodgers to Harrell would make the difference between an elite team and a .500 team.

Schatz wrote the Packers were 15-1 last season with "possibly the greatest passing game in NFL history," but it "hid the fact that the 2011 Packers were essentially mediocre or just plain bad in every other aspect of the game."

My feeling is that most teams would have a dropoff upon the loss of a starting quarterback. The Packers' gap between Rodgers and Harrell is wider than most, but that might be more a reflection of Rodgers than Harrell.

Second, KC Joyner -- aka the Football Scientist -- suggests that Minnesota Vikings quarterback Christian Ponder could be in line for a breakout season in 2012 thanks to an improved supporting cast.

Again, you'll need a subscription to see the entire story. But here is a snippet: "An upgraded supporting cast should also go a long way toward helping Ponder reduce his 4.3 percent bad decision rate (BDR) last year (BDR being a gauge of how often a quarterback makes a mental error that leads to a turnover or a near-turnover). That total was the third-highest in the league, but is not atypical of the BDR numbers posted by many of today's top quarterbacks early in their career and thus isn't an unsolvable problem."

To me, Ponder will benefit as much from an improved situation at left tackle, where Matt Kalil will take over for the miscast Charlie Johnson. At times, Ponder seemed too quick to utilize his athletic ability and escape from the pocket. He made some plays, but over time an offense needs more passing plays from the pocket than scrambles outside of it.

Have the Minnesota Vikings put quarterback Christian Ponder in position to succeed in 2012?

Ponder finished his rookie season with a series of injuries and poor decisions, playing behind a patchwork offensive line and with a limited set of weapons in the passing game. The Vikings' short-term future is tied to Ponder's development, so here is what they did for him this offseason:

They drafted Matt Kalil to take over at left tackle, a move that allows Charlie Johnson to move to left guard and accomplishes a significant remake of the offensive line. They signed pass-catching tight end John Carlson to pair with another smooth pass-catcher, Kyle Rudolph, and signed athletic receiver Jerome Simpson, who will be eligible to play in Week 4. Finally, they drafted a pair of Arkansas receivers in Jarius Wright and Greg Childs.

The idea of having multiple tight end targets makes sense for a young quarterback, and Ponder should have more confidence this season in his backside protection. Percy Harvin and Simpson could pair up as a decent playmaking duo at receiver, but depth remains a question mark. Ponder will be in a better position than he was last season, but the talent around him could still be improved.

EDEN PRAIRIE, Minn. -- It's not often when an NFL coach introduces a draft pick "as our starter" for "many, many years to come." Usually you at least see a charade of making the rookie "win" the job.

But the Minnesota Vikings have too many immediate plans for Matt Kalil, and so that's how coach Leslie Frazier described Kalil on Friday, in the process giving us a clear picture of how the Vikings plan to stack their rebuilt offensive line in 2012.

As suspected, Frazier said Kalil's arrival will push 2011 left tackle Charlie Johnson to left guard. (In fact, offensive line coach Jeff Davidson told reporters he discussed that likelihood with Johnson early last season.) Frazier said there will be a "battle" between veteran newcomer Geoff Schwartz, 2011 draft pick Brandon Fusco at right guard and possibly others.

That leaves center John Sullivan and right tackle Phil Loadholt, who is entering the final year of his contract, as the only holdovers from the group expected to start for the Vikings when training camp opened in 2011.

The key, of course, was getting Kalil in place to begin the process.

"It gives us more flexibility on the offensive line now," Frazier said, "because once you solidify that spot, it's a little bit easier to try and move other people around."

My trip to the NFL owners meetings last month included a chance encounter with an NFL executive. We discussed the state of what has become a highly competitive and interesting division from a league perspective, given the Green Bay Packers' recent success, the Detroit Lions' explosive offense and the Chicago Bears' flurry of offseason improvements.

And then we got to the Minnesota Vikings.

"Big year for Leslie Frazier," the executive said. "Big year."

That perspective caught me by surprise, given that Frazier has spent exactly one full season as the Vikings' permanent head coach. But Frazier is also entering what reportedly is the final fully guaranteed year of his contract, and the long-term approach the Vikings have taken toward building their roster provides a substantial challenge to a coach with limited job security.

That's a nice way of saying Frazier probably needs to do a lot better in 2012 than the 3-13 record he produced last year, but with a roster that won't be constructed to support a quick turnaround. It's an unfortunate collection of circumstances that Frazier is only partially to blame for, but when viewed in the big picture, you can understand why the executive sees 2012 as a pressure point for his career.

(My friend Judd Zulgad of 1500ESPN.com made a similar point last week.)

When the Vikings promoted Rick Spielman to general manager in January, Frazier said the move "should help me tremendously." Generally speaking, working for a good general manager is a healthy situation for any coach.

But since that point, the Vikings have dismantled their offensive line by releasing both starting guards and making plans to shift left tackle Charlie Johnson inside. They've given young quarterback Christian Ponder one more established playmaker, tight end John Carlson, but otherwise left their offensive skill positions untouched in free agency. They've bid farewell to their nose tackle and middle linebacker, tapping longtime backups as the likely successor in each role, and left untouched two safety positions that ended 2011 in shambles.

Spielman has made no secret of his intention: To get younger, to find blue-chip players in the draft and to supplement with complementary players in free agency. That's a sound philosophy for building long-term success, but it sure doesn't work in favor of a coach whose career record is now 6-16.

Take a look at the chart. A little more than half of the NFL's coaches (18 of 32) have reached a third full season in their jobs. Only four of them made it without the benefit of at least one non-losing season in their first two. And the only two who didn't demonstrate progress were the Washington Redskins' Mike Shanahan and the Seattle Seahawks' Pete Carroll, both of whom carried enough celebrity status -- and not to mention huge financial investments -- to be all but assured of a third season from the moment they arrived.

But consider the Vikings' placement in the NFC North, which put three teams among the top 10 in ESPN.com's most recent Power Rankings. Remember that they will be starting Ponder, who is in the midst of his first NFL offseason. Ponder will play behind a rebuilt offensive line, with a set of receivers who will either be underwhelming or inexperienced or both.

In a best-case scenario, tailback Adrian Peterson (knee) will resume football activities shortly before the season begins. And in a division that includes star quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler, it's worth noting the Vikings' historically poor pass defense hasn't been enhanced this offseason with a single defensive back who could be considered a starter. (Perhaps that sentence will need editing after the draft.)

Does that seem like a collection of circumstances favorable to a coach demonstrating significant progress in 2012? Not particularly, no.

To be clear, I don't think the Vikings are in an inappropriate spot as a franchise. This has been coming since the moment they failed to reach the Super Bowl in 2009. It's just poor timing for Frazier.

The best time to make these kinds of difficult decisions is in the first year of a coach's tenure. You take the resulting lumps when your job is most secure, and then presumably demonstrate steady progress thereafter. The Vikings lost 13 of 16 games last season in a misguided attempt to push an aging roster toward one final playoff berth. It was a lost year in every way, and only now do they face the proverbial bottoming-out. I don't want to say Leslie Frazier is set up to fail, but the deck seems stacked against him.

Guard Geoff Schwartz visited half of the NFC North during his free agent world tour, and on Wednesday he announced he will sign with the Minnesota Vikings. Schwartz had also visited the Detroit Lions, but the Lions have brought back both starting guards and the Vikings released both of theirs earlier this month. Seems like a pretty easy decision to me.

Schwartz was a full-time starter for the Carolina Panthers in 2010, but a hip injury caused him to miss the 2011 season. The Panthers didn't offer him a restricted free-agent tenure, but a likely scenario has him competing for the Vikings' starting right guard job with veteran Joe Berger.

Most of us have presumed the Vikings will move left tackle Charlie Johnson to left guard if they draft USC left tackle Matt Kalil. If it all falls into place that way, the Vikings' 2012 offensive line would be:

• LT: Kalil
• LG: Johnson
• C: John Sullivan
• RG: Schwartz/Berger
• RT: Phil Loadholt

Alas, we're due for at least another month of suspense before we know if the Johnson-Kalil moves comes to fruition. Stay tuned -- if you dare.

Given how fluid this time of year is, I once again mined the mailbag for questions and topics that didn't figure to be impacted by breaking news over the weekend. You can get in touch with me via the mailbag, Twitter or our nearly full Facebook page.

Onward….

Mark of San Diego writes: I've seen several columnists comment on the high amount of drops Brandon Marshall has had in his career, but they all mention in almost the same breath how many targets he gets. Is there a chart someplace (like maybe a future blog post) that shows drops as a percent of targets?

Kevin Seifert: That's a good and fair question, Mark. Statistics are always more valuable when viewed in context, and it stands to reason that the more passes a player is thrown, the more likely he'll have a higher number of drops.

The raw number, according to ESPN Stats & Information, is that Marshall has dropped 26 passes since 2008, the third-highest total in the NFL over that stretch. I don't have his total targets over that stretch, but I can give you a glimpse into his drop percentage over the past two seasons and how that fits into the league rankings.

In 2010, Marshall had a drop percentage of 8.5, which ranked 60th in the NFL that season. That means 59 receivers caught a higher percentage of the catchable passes thrown their way.

In 2011, Marshall's drop percentage was 6.9, ranking him No. 52 in the league.

In this case, the percentage confirms what the raw numbers suggest. Marshall's drops weren't only a function of his high involvement in the Miami Dolphins offense. He missed more catchable passes than dozens of other NFL receivers.

To be clear, that shouldn't take away from Marshall's accomplishments as one of the league's most productive receivers over that period. The percentages merely give us a broader view of his performance.

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Matt of Appleton, Wis., is curious about the long-term salary cap implications of Detroit Lions receiver Calvin Johnson's new contract.

Kevin Seifert: Johnson signed what is technically an eight-year, $132 million deal. Deals that long often get restructured before the end, but usually teams at least leave the first three years intact before going back at it.

To that end, former agent Joel Corry provided a three-year cap breakdown for the National Football Post. The deal will count $11.5 million against the cap in 2012, $12.2 million in 2013 and $12.2 million in 2014, according to Corry.

It's never ideal to have a player count more than $10 million against the cap, especially in the case of the Lions, who have three players -- Johnson, quarterback Matthew Stafford and defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh -- who will always have high cap numbers because they were top draft picks under the previous NFL system for rookie contracts.

But remember, Johnson was going to count $22 million this season against the cap, and if he received the franchise tag, $26.4 million in 2013 and $31 million in 2014. Considered that way, his new cap charges seem quite reasonable.

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Eric of Fariview Heights, Ill., isn't satisfied with our explanation for why the Minnesota Vikings didn't participate more actively in the opening days of free agency. Carl Nicks is 26 and probably if not absolutely is the best guard in the league. A five year deal helps Ponder and Peterson, neither of which are getting protected. Talks with an aged, twice injured TE is more important than a top WR signing? Explain! So we want Percy Harvin, John Carlson, and Kyle Rudolph clogging up the middle? Where is our deep threat? How can you write an article defending not going after Nicks, a top receiver, OR one of the top cornerbacks? I mean seeing how we've been HORRIBLE in the secondary... It's a joke. Let's hear the true talk on this inactivity please!?

Kevin Seifert: That's fair. First I'll give you a rundown of what I would guess the Vikings were thinking, and then I'll offer my own comments.

Six years ago, the Vikings signed Steve Hutchinson to the biggest contract for a guard in NFL history. Historically, however, NFL teams don't like to devote cap space to the guard position. There are too many instances of success when inserting younger, cheaper players into those jobs while spending your money on left tackle and center. Hutchinson, the Vikings thought then and now, was a once-in-a-generation player.

Rather than devoting $47.5 million to Nicks over the next five years, the Vikings figure they can move Charlie Johnson to left guard. Johnson signed a three-year, $10 million contract last summer. He might not perform to Nicks' level, but is the difference between Nicks and Johnson worth, say, twice or three times the salary cap space? The Vikings didn't think so.

The same goes for cornerback. The Vikings will get the promising Chris Cook back on the field in 2012, which is an automatic upgrade from what they finished with. I can only assume that they didn't think any of the cornerbacks available on the market, most notably Brandon Carr and Cortland Finnegan, were worth the $10 million annual salaries they eventually received.

As for Carlson, none of us can pretend to understand whether he is a risk for injury moving forward. Beyond that, the Vikings saw him as a polished 27-year-old pass-catcher who could make their offensive more dynamic. Does he solve all of their problems, including the deep threat issue? No. But that doesn't mean he can't help.

General manager Rick Spielman said last week that the team wasn't "one player away" from contending for the Super Bowl. That's one of the reasons the Vikings weren't more aggressive. A fair counterargument, of course, is this: What if they are? What if quarterback Christian Ponder develops quickly, and tailback Adrian Peterson returns to form and the offensive line improves with the presumed drafting of Matt Kalil?

In that case, the Vikings would be vulnerable in their otherwise unaddressed secondary, and a chance to have a better-than-expected season could be quashed. I'm fine with the Vikings sitting out the crazy receiver market. I do question if they're going to be able to field a competitive defensive secondary, but we'll withhold final judgment until the full players acquisition period is complete.

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Grayson of Roseville, Calif., writes: Why wouldn't the Packers have made a play for Mario Williams? I know they don't often do anything in free agency but Williams seems too good to pass up, like Reggie White and Charles Woodson were. It makes so much sense!

Kevin Seifert: It makes sense from the standpoint of the Packers needing a pass rusher (or two) and Williams is the best pass rusher on the market. Williams has more experience as a 4-3 end rather than a 3-4 outside linebacker, but perhaps the idea of playing opposite Clay Matthews -- and the presumably favorable matchups that would go with it -- might have been enough to lure him to the Packers.

But as we noted during the week, the Packers aren't really in position to start handing out $100 million contracts to free agents -- at least, not if they plan to re-sign a trio of players who are in line for extensions. Matthews, receiver Greg Jennings and quarterback Aaron Rodgers could have their deals addressed in the next calendar year. I'm guessing the Packers prioritized them over any free agent.

With that said, it doesn't mean the Packers couldn't afford to investigate other free agent pass rushers. I wouldn't be opposed to them pursuing Kamerion Wimbley, whom the Oakland Raiders released Friday.

The Minnesota Vikings' roster moves Saturday were more symbolic than they were surprising.

It has been clear for some time that cornerback Cedric Griffin would not return in 2012, and the recent injury history of guards Steve Hutchinson and Anthony Herrera made now a logical time to part ways with them as well. The trio were three of the team's longest-tenured players, with a combined 19 years spent in some fashion with the organization, and their departures mark the start of what is expected to be a major roster overhaul under new general manager Rick Spielman.

A few thoughts:

• The departures clear more than $10 million in salary cap space, giving the Vikings a little more than a $20 million surplus this offseason. That's enough for them to be a significant player in the free-agent market if they choose to.
• Unless there have been contract talks that have gone unreported, another longtime veteran could follow these players out the door. Middle linebacker E.J. Henderson is a pending free agent and dealt with a balky knee for much of last season.
• Releasing both starting guards is a strong indication that the Vikings will draft USC left tackle Matt Kalil at No. 3 overall and move former left tackle Charlie Johnson to one of the guard spots. I would consider the other starting guard spot fluid at this point.
• Hutchinson made it through six years of the landmark seven-year contract he signed prior to the 2006 season. The Vikings made him the highest-paid guard in NFL history, believing he was a unique player for the position and one they could build the rest of a championship line around. Indeed, Hutchinson was named an All-Pro in the first four of those seasons before injuries slowed him down. He probably would have been good for another year, and perhaps he'll play elsewhere in 2012, but the Vikings deemed his $7 million cap hit too high for a rebuilding scenario.
• We discussed Hutchinson's candidacy for the Pro Football Hall of Fame last summer. He is a seven-time All-Pro, was a member of the NFL's all-decade team of the 2000s and was one of the best players at his position during this generation.

We've used 2011 playing-time statistics to identify a number of trends and important points, from the perfect attendance of Chicago Bears linebacker Lance Briggs to the reliability of Detroit Lions tight end Brandon Pettigrew to the curious limitations placed upon Minnesota Vikings receiver Percy Harvin. Now let's sift though some other figures that don't demand dramatic conclusions but are of interest nonetheless.

1. We noted that Briggs played every defensive snap for the Bears last season. Five other players, all offensive linemen, also never missed a play. That list includes Chicago Bears center Roberto Garza and left tackle J'Marcus Webb, Detroit Lions guards Stephen Peterman and Rob Sims, and Green Bay Packers guard/tackle T.J. Lang.
2. Minnesota Vikings left tackle Charlie Johnson missed a grand total of eight plays in 2011. Lions center Dominic Raiola missed nine plays and Packers center Scott Wells missed 29. Vikings right tackle Phil Loadholt played all but 33 snaps.
3. Depth issues at defensive end surfaced for several teams. The Vikings' Jared Allen led all NFL players at his position by playing on 94.3 percent of his team's snaps, and teammate Brian Robison ranked 11th among defensive ends by playing 84.4 percent. Meanwhile, the Bears' Israel Idonije was on the field for 84.6 percent of his team's snaps, with Julius Peppers close behind at 82.1. Obviously that foursome is a good group of players, but it's also clear that their teams didn't have backups they felt comfortable rolling in.
4. Consider that conclusion in the context of how the well-stocked Lions rotated their defensive ends. Cliff Avril played on 72 percent of their snaps and Kyle Vanden Bosch was on the field for 67.9 percent. Lawrence Jackson played on 30.1 percent of the Lions' snaps despite injuries that limited him to 11 games, while backup Willie Young saw action 22.7 percent of plays over 14 games.
5. The NFC North had two workhorse middle linebackers. The Bears' Brian Urlacher missed only 14 plays, most of which came after a knee injury in the season finale. The Lions' Stephen Tulloch, meanwhile, missed only 19 of 1,098 defensive snaps.
6. Bears running back Matt Forte was on the field for the 10th-most plays (564) among running backs despite missing four-plus games because of a knee injury.

A few thoughts on Sunday's festivities at the Metrodome:

What it means: The Minnesota Vikings dropped to 2-8, tied for the second-worst record in the NFL, amid a gloomy first-half performance and a second-half surge that fell short as they lost 27-21 to the Oakland Raiders. Soon it will be time to start projecting the Vikings' draft position. As of this moment, it would be no worse than No. 4 overall.

PetersonWatch: Tailback Adrian Peterson didn't return after a scary injury to his left ankle, but X-rays showed no fracture, according to coach Leslie Frazier. Peterson is expected to undergo an MRI on Monday. It's impossible to overstate what the loss of their best player, even for a game, would mean to the Vikings. For now, their backup running backs are Toby Gerhart (24 carries this season) and Lorenzo Booker (four).

Mistakeball: Left tackle Charlie Johnson jumped offsides on the first play from scrimmage. Rookie quarterback Christian Ponder threw three interceptions, including one in the end zone and one near the goal line. The field-goal team botched placement of a 49-yard attempt. Booker lost a fumble on a kickoff return. That litany of mistakes, among others, dug a hole far too deep. That extended an embarrassing stretch of getting outscored 72-14 between the start of their Week 10 loss at the Green Bay Packers and the fourth quarter of Sunday's game.

Pass protection: Ponder had a shaky performance but faced a heavy rush for the second consecutive week. He scrambled for 71 yards on five carries, a good way to limit opposing blitzes, but at some point you need to have time to make plays in the pocket. The Raiders had five sacks. Offensive line has already emerged as one of the Vikings' top priorities for this offseason.

What's next: The Vikings travel to the Georgia Dome next Sunday to play the Atlanta Falcons.

We're Black and Blue All Over:

If you were the Chicago Bears, would you keep trotting receiver Roy Williams onto the field or would you back off his playing time until he demonstrated more efficiency in the offense? That was one of the questions our ESPNChicago.com crew considered in this week's edition of "Four Downs."

Jeff Dickerson had this strong response: "There is zero chemistry between Williams and Jay Cutler. None. The groin injury can't be used as an excuse because even before Williams got hurt in Week 1 he failed to show anything of substance in training camp or the preseason. He dropped a sure touchdown against the Packers, and his lack of effort on a few other throws was unacceptable. At this point, the Bears would be better served giving Johnny Knox all the game reps. Knox might drop some passes, but at least he runs full-speed while doing it."

I doubt the Bears will follow suit, but I think it's pretty obvious that Williams and Cutler have a lot of work to do in order to become an effective combination. In the meantime, a player Cutler had exceptional chemistry with -- tight end Greg Olsen -- will be standing on the visitor's sideline Sunday at Soldier Field.

Continuing around the NFC North:

• Olsen on his return to Soldier Field with the Carolina Panthers, via Dan Pompei of the Chicago Tribune: "To say this game doesn't light your fire a little more with everything that happened would be a lie. I'm excited. It's a game we've been looking forward to. I'm excited to come back to play in Soldier Field again. I have a lot of respect for Chicago with the players they have there with [Brian Urlacher] and [Julius Peppers] and [Lance] Briggs. They are one of the best in the league every year. [Coach Lovie Smith] and them do a great job with the defense."
• Mark Potash of the Chicago Sun-Times wonders if Cutler is regressing in his career.
• The Ramsey County (Minn.) Charter Commission will hold the first of two public hearings Wednesday night on the possibility of a voter referendum on the sales tax increase that would help pay for a new Minnesota Vikings stadium. Frederick Melo of the St. Paul Pioneer Press has more.
• Vikings quarterback Donovan McNabb and receiver Michael Jenkins have developed solid chemistry, writes Kent Youngblood of the Star Tribune.
• The Vikings have a difficult matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs in at least one spot: left tackle Charlie Johnson versus Chiefs linebacker Tamba Hali. Writing for 1500ESPN.com, Sam Monson of Pro Football Focus explains.
• Green Bay Packers guard Josh Sitton was once a telemarketer, he told Jason Wilde of ESPNMilwaukee.com.
• Cliff Christl of the Green Bay Press-Gazette on the Packers' personnel philosophy: "The history of the NFL tells us it's more important to monitor the veterans a championship team brings back than the ones it pushes out the door. In other words, holding on to players too long is more likely to spoil a reigning champ's season than discarding them too early."
• Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel traces the offseason rehabilitation of tight end Jermichael Finley.
• The Detroit Lions have lost linebacker/special-teams ace Isaiah Ekejiuba because of a shoulder injury, according to Tim Twentyman of the Detroit News.
• Lions rookie receiver Titus Young is coming on strong, notes Philip Zaroo of Mlive.com.
• Chances are "slim" that Lions defensive tackle Nick Fairley (foot) will play Sunday against the Dallas Cowboys, writes Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press.

After the Minnesota Vikings' 26-23 loss Sunday to the Detroit Lions, here are three issues that merit further examination:

Kevin SeifertFollowing their loss to the Detroit Lions, the Vikings take a seat in the examination room.
1. Leslie Frazier mostly played it by the game-management book as the Vikings' interim coach last season, but this season there have been a number of instances in which his decisions and explanations don't add up. In Week 2, he didn't use a timeout during the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' final possession, saying afterwards that he was confident his defense would make a stop or generate a turnover. Sunday, Frazier tried to put the game away with a fourth-down play at the Lions' 17-yard line in the fourth quarter. But he approved a run to backup Toby Gerhart, who was lined up at fullback, instead of involving Adrian Peterson. Most running backs would have struggled in that spot given the way the Lions' defensive line pushed back, but Peterson would have had the best chance. Frazier said he thought the play would work, but ultimately he allowed offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave to get too cute. Frazier did acknowledge the Vikings erred in giving Peterson only five carries in the second half, which might have been the more egregious game-management error. How could you forget about Adrian Peterson?
2. I realize cornerback Chris Cook was the defender on Calvin Johnson's 32-yard touchdown reception, but from what I saw, Cook had quite an encouraging day overall. Most notably, he knocked down a late pass that could have gone for a touchdown. Cook looked aggressive and confident, and it was reminiscent of his rookie training camp in 2010. There's no shame in getting beat by Johnson, and Cook had a few victorious moments of his own.
3. The Vikings had free agent left tackle Max Starks in for a visit Monday, according to Tom Pelissero of 1500ESPN.com. It's not uncommon for teams to take a look at available veterans in the event an emergency replacement is needed, and there is no indication that a signing is imminent. But the decision also reminds us that the Vikings are playing with a left tackle (Charlie Johnson) who is best suited to be a utility backup. I know we have a long way to go, but I feel relatively confident that the Vikings will enter the offseason with left tackle as perhaps their top personnel need.

And here is one issue I still don't get:

Frazier has made clear he has no plans to replace quarterback Donovan McNabb, but curiously acknowledged Monday that coaches will look for mechanical issues that might be causing McNabb to short-hop passes to receivers. Said Frazier: "Whether it be his drop or whether it be his footwork, whatever we need to do to help him improve some of those balls that aren't quite on target. But that's not the only reason we are falling short. That's one of the reasons, but there are some other things we need to work on as a team." A 34-year-old quarterback isn't supposed to need mechanical adjustments midway through the season. It's yet another reason to question what the Vikings are accomplishing by committing to McNabb while rookie Christian Ponder sits on the bench.

After the Detroit Lions' 26-23 victory Sunday against the Minnesota Vikings, here are three issues that merit further examination:

1. Coach Jim Schwartz did his best to temper excitement Monday about both the nature of the Lions' comeback victory and their first 3-0 start in 31 years. "We don't need to have ticker-tape parade over regular-season wins," he said. Schwartz also said: "Our biggest win hasn't come yet." But statistical analyst Alok Pattani used ESPN's win probability tool to research how unlikely the Lions' victory actually was. The tool uses 10 years of NFL play-by-play data to estimate the likelihood that a team will win at a given point in the game. Early in the third quarter of Sunday's game, the Lions had a two percent chance of winning based on the composite of how similar NFL games have proceeded over the past decade. Put another way: An NFL team trailing by 20 points early in the third quarter loses 98 out of 100 times. That should give you some perspective on what the Lions accomplished Sunday.
Kevin SeifertThe Lions take their three-game winning streak with them into the examination room.
2. This week, the NFL world will be lauding receiver Calvin Johnson now that he is the first player in league history to score two touchdowns in each of his team's first three games. And his best catch of the season, the 40-yard "Willie Mays" catch in overtime, didn't even go for a score. But I hope you know that the play worked only because tailback Jahvid Best got himself between Vikings linebacker Chad Greenway and quarterback Matthew Stafford. Best is kindly listed at 199 pounds, but I'm guessing Greenway outweighs him by at least 50. Greenway broke through the line on a blitz and steamrolled Best, but the collision allowed Stafford enough time to get the throw off. The Lions might not have won had Best not made that block.
3. Left tackle Jeff Backus had one really, really bad series Sunday, but I don’t know that I’m ready to join the chorus of nervous nellies about his overall play. Backus had his hands full with Vikings defensive end Jared Allen, and on that one series he committed consecutive false starts and gave up one of the two sacks Allen beat him for in the game. It’s fair to wonder whether Backus’ offseason pectoral injury has or will impact his ability to extend his arms and pass-block, but if I’m the Lions, I’m more concerned about right tackle Gosder Cherilus. At least Backus got beat by one of the NFL’s top pass rushers. Cherilus was benched after a far less accomplished player, Brian Robison, beat him for a sack. Schwartz wasn’t ready to discuss Monday whether Cherilus will be benched permanently, but his play hasn’t been encouraging this season.

And here is one issue I still don't get:

Immediately after Jason Hanson's overtime field goal, referee Ron Winter blew his whistle and indicated the game was not yet over. With Winter's microphone live, Schwartz angrily blurted: "What the [bleep]? Learn the [bleeping] rules!" Monday, Schwartz implied Winter's crew had momentarily transposed the NFL rule that requires a kickoff after a first-possession overtime field goal during a playoff game. I really, really hope that's not what happened. Surely neither Winter nor his crew got that confused, even if it was for a moment. Tom Pelissero of 1500ESPN.com reported that booth officials were reviewing Hanson's field goal to ensure it sailed through the uprights. I just can't accept that an NFL referee would have confused this rule.

The young season has already brought some interesting developments within the Air and Space division. Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford is part of the early MVP discussion after throwing for 599 yards and seven touchdowns while not taking a sack. Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler, meanwhile, has been a human shock absorber, and Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is off to the best two-game start from a yardage perspective (620 yards) of his career.

What I have found particularly interesting, however, is the way the Minnesota Vikings have used new starter Donovan McNabb. Watching the Vikings from an anecdotal perspective, McNabb has seemingly made every throw off some variation of the bootleg that gets him out of the pocket and creates a natural short-range opening for a receiver. The reality, ESPN Stats & Information tells us, isn't that far off.

As the chart shows, McNabb has thrown 11 of his 45 passes this season from outside of the pocket, including his sole touchdown pass, a 3-yard strike to receiver Michael Jenkins in Week 1. Only Colt McCoy of the Cleveland Browns has thrown a higher percentage of his total passes from outside of the pocket, and McCoy is nine years younger than McNabb and more prone to unplanned scrambles.

But the Vikings are purposely getting McNabb outside. They are attempting to capitalize on his career-long success throwing on the move and also want to monetize the respect opponents are showing for tailback Adrian Peterson. It's also worth noting that a bootleg to McNabb's right gets him away from any backside pass rush potentially allowed by new left tackle Charlie Johnson.

To little surprise, McNabb's performance has been dramatically better on those plays than when he has remained in the pocket. He said this week that he's "willing to do whatever it takes to win" and hopes the early threat of a bootleg will soften defensive reactions to Peterson's every move.

"Teams are going to pursue to try to stop him from getting that big run," McNabb said, "which is going to open up lanes outside on the nakeds and boots to get the ball to our receivers on the outside. That's going to happen all throughout the course of the year and we just have to capitalize on the play-action game and get the ball down 15, 20, 25 yards to create some more explosive plays."

To this point, McNabb's eight completed passes on the outside have netted a total of 67 yards. But even if they start netting more yardage, it's difficult to imagine an NFL team winning consistently when its best (and only) passing play is a bootleg. The chances for producing a big play are smaller, and frequency can become predictable.

Like any offense, the Vikings will have to find at least some success via traditional pocket passing. To this point, McNabb has the fewest number of completions on passes thrown from the pocket (17) than any starter in the NFL. For comparison's sake, NFL leader Tom Brady of the New England Patriots has about four times as many.

McNabb accurately noted that the Vikings are finding alternate ways to make explosive plays, noting a 42-yard screen play last Sunday to tailback Toby Gerhart. Ultimately, however, the bootlegs and screens will have to be part of a bigger picture that includes at least the potential to score quickly on traditional downfield passes rather than at the end of long drives.

"I think people are seeing teams throwing deep balls for 60, 70-yard touchdowns," McNabb said. "And that's going to come. But you have to methodically move the ball downfield and move the chains and we [are] able to do that."

We're Black and Blue All Over:

The Chicago Bears disappointed many of their fans and confused many of the players in their locker room when they traded tight end Greg Olsen just before training camp. But as Dan Pompei of the Chicago Tribune points out, Sunday's season-opening victory over the Atlanta Falcons provided a good explanation for the move.

Olsen's replacements, Kellen Davis and Matt Spaeth, lined up next to each other on a number of running plays to seal the edge. There were also some occasions when the Bears used an unbalanced line that essentially made the tight end a left tackle.

Olsen is a strong pass-catcher but an average blocker. Using him in the kind of role Davis and Spaeth played Sunday isn't the best utilization of his talents. You could argue the Bears could have adjusted their scheme to make better use of Olsen's skills. But if they weren't going to do that, it appears they have two tight ends who are better suited for the role that Bears tight ends will be asked to play.

Continuing around the NFC North:

• Bears cornerback Charles Tillman now has 25 forced fumbles since 2003, the most among NFL cornerbacks. Michael C. Wright of ESPNChicago.com has more.
• The Bears' opening schedule, which includes the New Orleans Saints and Green Bay Packers, doesn't appear as daunting as once believed, writes Rick Morrissey of the Chicago Sun-Times.
• The Detroit Lions' motivation to beat the Kansas City Chiefs isn't likely to come from defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham's history with the team, writes Chris McCosky of the Detroit News.
• The Lions' meeting following Sunday's victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers was "intense," defensive end Cliff Avril said, according to Philip Zaroo of Mlive.com. Coach Jim Schwartz was furious about a number of mental errors in the game.
• Lions receiver Calvin Johnson was a deep safety on the team's final play Sunday, notes Carlos Monarrez of the Detroit Free Press.
• Based on video review, Tom Pelissero of 1500ESPN.com credited Minnesota Vikings left tackle Charlie Johnson with allowing five quarterback pressures Sunday against the San Diego Chargers.
• More than quarterback Donovan McNabb is to blame for the Vikings' offensive woes, writes Jeremy Fowler of the St. Paul Pioneer Press.
• The Vikings' offense was "alarmingly inept and bland," writes Chip Scoggins of the Star Tribune.
• The Green Bay Packers won't have a cakewalk in the NFC North, writes Tyler Dunne of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
• The Packers are finally on a normal regular-season schedule, writes Rob Demovsky of the Green Bay Press-Gazette.

» NFC Final Word: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Five nuggets of knowledge about Week 1:

All Forte: After so much summer discussion about his contract, his strengths and his weaknesses, it appears Matt Forte will be the Chicago Bears' second-most important offensive player Sunday against the Atlanta Falcons and beyond. (Quarterback Jay Cutler is obviously No. 1.) Backup tailback Marion Barber didn't practice this week because of a calf injury, and the Bears' only reserve help could be little-used Kahlil Bell. Barber's primary role this season was likely to take some pounding away from Forte in goal-line and short-yardage situations, which has never been a strength of Forte's anyway. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Forte has managed only five touchdowns on 57 goal-to-go carries since the start of the 2009 season. Against a team like the Falcons, the Bears can't afford too many red-zone breakdowns. They'll either need Forte to convert or they'll have to take to the air. For what it's worth, Cutler has thrown more red-zone interceptions (13) than any other NFL quarterback over the past three seasons.

Unknown quantity: We didn't learn much this summer about the Bears' defense, which has moving parts at several positions and didn't make much of an impact on preseason games one way or the other. The Falcons are a power running team that made a big offseason splash to trade up in the draft for big-play receiver Julio Jones. If they're on task, that's a tough combination to defend. We still don't know who, other than Julius Peppers, can provide a pass rush for the Bears and we're awaiting a safety transition involving newcomer Brandon Meriweather. The Bears will have their hands full defensively, but keep in mind that the Falcons haven't come to Chicago and won a game since the 1983 season opener.

HotHotHot: Sunday's updated weather forecast for Tampa calls for a high of 91 degrees with 77 percent humidity at Raymond James Stadium. As we discussed during the week, it's been a hot summer in the upper midwest. I'm not sure the Detroit Lions practiced in anything quite like they're going to experience Sunday, but all NFL players should be in condition to play a hot-weather game in Week 1. To me, it's the less-expected hot weather you might experience in October or even November that can catch you off guard. The Lions will need to stay on top of their hydration to avoid cramping and the like, but I'm not sure this issue will impact the outcome of the game.

Matchup of young stars: This game will feature two of the top three quarterbacks in the 2009 draft, the Lions' Matthew Stafford and the Buccaneers' Josh Freeman. It also will put on display the Lions' good fortune in having the No. 2 overall pick of the 2010 draft rather than No. 3. The Lions chose defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, leaving the Bucs to take defensive tackle Gerald McCoy. As it turns out, McCoy has been a pretty good player. But Suh is ready to break out as one of the NFL's best. Suh and nose tackle Corey Williams will look to stuff Bucs tailback LeGarrette Blount, who gashed them for 61 yards on seven carries on runs up the middle in the teams' 2010 matchup.

Slow starts: Many observers have the Minnesota Vikings pegged to limp out of the gate this season, noting their offensive scheme transition, along with the presence of a new quarterback (Donovan McNabb) and left tackle (Charlie Johnson). But as it turns out, the Vikings on Sunday will face the NFL's most notorious slow starters over the past seven seasons. The San Diego Chargers have a combined 30-26 record during the first half of those seasons and a 46-10 record in the second half. For whatever reason, the Vikings are getting the Chargers at the proverbial right time. For what it's worth, the preseason showed us that if the Vikings struggle early in 2011, it will be because of their shaky personnel situation on defense. Their starting lineup Sunday will include three new defensive linemen, one untested linebacker (Erin Henderson) and a rotation at strong safety between Jamarca Sanford and Tyrell Johnson. On the other hand, their offense appeared relatively cohesive both in camp and in the preseason.