NFC North: Chris Doleman

BBAO: Ticket prices up in Green Bay

February, 10, 2012
Feb 10
7:15
AM ET
We're Black and Blue All Over:

To date, 50 percent of the NFC North has elevated ticket prices for 2012. The other 50 percent, to my knowledge, hasn't made its plans public.

The Green Bay Packers' prices will rise from $3 to $5 per ticket, depending on location, as Jason Wilde of ESPNMilwaukee.com notes. Last week, the Detroit Lions announced a 7.9 percent hike in prices, their first since 2007.

I hope no one is surprised by either move, especially after NFL teams largely kept their prices steady during last season's lockout. The Packers have a season ticket waiting list of 90,000 people, giving them extraordinary leverage when it comes to setting prices. And the Lions had actually lowered some prices in recent years before selling out all of their home games during their breakthrough 2011 season.

It's simple economics, and it wouldn't be surprising to see the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings follow suit. Stay tuned.

Continuing around the NFC North:
For the purposes of Hall of Fame discussions, Kevin Greene isn't really "ours." Greene played outside linebacker for four teams in his 15-year career, but none of them were in the NFC North or former NFC Central. But his current position as the Green Bay Packers' outside linebackers coach makes his Hall of Fame candidacy (or lack thereof) a topical offseason point.

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Kevin Greene
Joseph Patronite/Getty ImagesDespite 160 sacks, Kevin Greene remains on the outside looking in when it comes to the Hall of Fame.
Saturday's election of Chris Doleman sharpened the focus on Greene's largely ignored candidacy. Dolman's career total of 150.5 sacks ranks below Greene on the NFL's all-time list, but he became the sixth pass-rusher in the past five years to win election.

The chart shows the top 12 pass-rushers in NFL history, at least based on career sack totals. Eight of them are in the Hall of Fame and two, Michael Strahan and Jason Taylor, aren't eligible yet. That leaves Green and Leslie O'Neal (132.5 sacks) as the only players in this 12-man group to be sitting on the outside.

Greene's 160 career sacks stand out starkly on the chart. If the 44-member voting committee values sacks as much as it appears to, why has Greene remained on the periphery of the conversation? On Saturday, I threw out via Twitter an opportunity to provide a devil's advocate argument to explain a statistical anomaly.

Besides the standard jokes about bias against long hair, most of you suggested the committee considers Greene a specialist. Wrote @kgilly75: "Because all he could do is rush the passer...not good in coverage or run support.."

Again, we in the NFC North aren't really in position to advocate or argue against Greene's candidacy. But given the respect that pass-rushers have received in recent elections, I'm not sure if it's appropriate to place an "all he could do" in front of "rush the passer." Do you? Just curious.

We spent plenty of time in recent days discussing the tough road for wide receivers making the Pro Football Hall of Fame. In the process, we ignored where the selection committee has turned its attention: pass-rushers.

Not one receiver made the last cut to five modern-day finalists in Saturday's balloting in Indianapolis. But former Minnesota Vikings defensive end Chris Doleman became the third consecutive NFC North pass-rusher to earn enshrinement, following Richard Dent in 2011 and John Randle in 2010. Former Minnesota Vikings receiver Cris Carter again failed to make the cut, a victim of the perceived value between pass-rushers and wide receivers.

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Vikings defensive end Chris Doleman
AP Photo/NFL PhotosNot only was Chris Doleman a sack specialist, but the former Vikings star is also among the NFL career leaders in fumble recoveries.
At least one pass-rusher has won election in each of the past five years. Bruce Smith and Derrick Thomas were part of the 2009 class, and Fred Dean was in the class of 2008.

Doleman's 150.5 career sacks rank third in NFL history, behind Smith (200), Reggie White (198) and Kevin Greene (160). Smith and White are both in Canton, and as of Saturday, five of the top eight players with the highest career sack totals have or will be enshrined. Greene, Michael Strahan (eligible in 2013) and the recently retired Jason Taylor (139.5) are the only players who have been left out.

(More on Greene, who didn't even make the cut from 15 finalists to 10, in the coming days.)

I don't want to take anything away from Doleman, who was a pass-rushing force for an extended period in the NFL. His two best seasons -- 21 sacks in 1989 and 15 sacks in 1998 -- came nine years apart. Doleman was part of four teams that finished the season with the NFL's top-ranked defense, recovered the seventh-most fumbles (24) in league history and was an eight-time Pro Bowler.

But with the exception of Greene, it's clear that sack totals are among the most reliable tickets to the Hall of Fame. Minutes after Doleman's election was announced, longtime Twin Cities sports analyst Patrick Reusse (also a colleague of mine at ESPN 1500) tweeted: "Apparently, it's all about sacks, since in his absolute prime, Doleman was 2nd best D-lineman on his team, behind Keith Millard."

To me, the definition of a Hall of Fame player is that he was one of the best of his era. Doleman was named to the NFL's 1990's All-Decade team, along with three other defensive ends. Was he one of the best players of that generation? He was if you accept that pass-rushing is as important as the voting committee considers it.

But enough of that. I'm not going to diminish Doleman's big day by questioning his credentials. There is little doubt he was a great player for a long time in this league.

Yes, the beauty of the annual Hall of Fame announcement is that it produces as much debate afterward as it did beforehand. Doleman is a Hall of Fame player because the voting committee places premium value on his particular skill set. (Again, Greene appears to be the lone exception to that rule.)

Carter isn't in the Hall of Fame because the voting committee doesn't value his position and corresponding statistics nearly as much. There are still only 21 receivers in Canton, the lowest total of any position other than tight end and kicking specialist. That's the deal -- no more and no less.
The NFC North will have one representative in the 2012 class of the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Former Minnesota Vikings defensive end Chris Doleman was elected Saturday during the annual meeting of the Hall of Fame's selection committee in Indianapolis.

Congratulations to Chris, whose 150.5 career sacks rank fourth in NFL history. We'll have more on this developments, which brought another year of disappointment for former Vikings receiver Cris Carter, in a bit. Former Detroit Lions guard Dick Stanfel, a nominee of the Seniors Committee, did not garner enough votes for enshrinement.
Saturday should be busy and rewarding for those of us in the NFC North.

At 5:30 p.m. ET, the Pro Football Hall of Fame will announce its class of 2012. Former Minnesota Vikings Cris Carter and Chris Doleman are among those on the ballot. So is Green Bay Packers outside linebackers coach Kevin Greene and former Detroit Lions guard Dick Stanfel, a nomination from the Seniors Committee.

I'll plan to weigh in on the blog shortly after the announcement, whether we have good news or bad news. We focused our attention Friday on Carter, but don't rule out the candidacies of Doleman, Greene and Stanfel.

Then, we'll turn our attention to the new "NFL Honors" award show that will, in the span of a few hours, reveal all of the league's individual awards. It kicks off at 9 p.m. ET, so it'll be a late night.

I'm thinking the NFC North has a reasonable chance to dominate the evening, considering Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is the likely MVP and Vikings defensive end Jared Allen could win the Defensive Player of the Year Award.

Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford should be in the running for the Comeback Player of the Year Award. I made a case earlier this season for Packers coach Mike McCarthy as the NFL's coach of the year, but most everyone expects San Francisco 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh to win it.

Now go out and enjoy your Saturday. We'll reconvene early this evening.
Carter
Carter
In 1994, Cris Carter set an NFL record with 122 receptions over the course of a 16-game season. Shortly thereafter, the Pro Football Hall of Fame received and put up for display his full uniform, commemorating an achievement that figured to stand for some time.

The very next year, Herman Moore caught 123 passes for the Detroit Lions. Since then, the NFL has seen a 143-catch season (Marvin Harrison for the Indianapolis Colts in 2002) and another 123-catch campaign (Wes Welker for the New England Patriots in 2009). Welker also caught 122 passes this season. In fact, since Carter's 122-catch season, NFL wide receivers have produced 13 seasons that would have broken the record of 112 catches that Carter eclipsed in that 1994 season.

Carter was without question one of the best wide receivers of his era, but if I had to make an educated guess about why he has not yet been enshrined in the Hall of Fame, I would blame his timing. He produced his best seasons at the start of an NFL passing frenzy that has inflated statistics and left Hall voters reluctant to reward them.

There are 21 wide receivers in the Hall, fewer than any position except tight end, place-kicker or punter. And as the first chart shows, only four receivers whose careers began in the past 35 years have been elected. One of them, Art Monk, was enshrined 13 years after his retirement. A second, James Lofton, waited 10 years.

Hall voters might not agree, but the numbers suggest they haven't prioritized receivers as much as some other positions. And those who value the position have no doubt been torn in recent years by the presence of three quality candidates: Carter, Andre Reed and Tim Brown.

The second chart shows the receiving statistics of that trio over a relatively similar career span. Carter was a finalist in 2008, 2009 and 2010. Brown, who was also an elite kick returner, was a finalist in 2010. But Reed has been a finalist every year since 2007, and Carter's absence in 2011 suggests that Reed might have been pushed to the front of the line whenever a receiver (or two) is elected.

When he retired in 2002, Carter ranked second in NFL history in receptions and touchdown catches. He was No. 3 in total yards and total touchdowns. The NFL's offensive explosion has pushed him down in every category, and you hope he doesn't get permanently caught in the subsequent backlash. Catching 244 passes in two seasons, as Carter did in 1994 and 1995, was much more notable at the time than it is now.

While he will always be overshadowed by Jerry Rice, whose career more or less overlapped his, Carter also deserves some big-picture credit for sharpening the science of sideline footwork and warding off opponents with his arm. He was also as durable a receiver as this game as known, missing only four games in 14 seasons between 1988-2002.

I couldn't begin to tell you what might happen Saturday when voters convene to elect the class of 2012. Once again, Carter has joined Brown and Reed on the list of 15 semifinalists. Only five recently retired players, along with up to two nominees from the seniors committee, can make it.

I'll leave you with what the late Detroit Lions beat writer Tom Kowalski a said in a post-vote discussion last year. (He also tweeted it, so it's not as if I'm giving away a privileged conversation.) Kowalski, a member of the voting committee, looked at the projected ballots for 2012, 2013 and 2014 and predicted that the "snubs" of 2011 would be rectified over the next three years. If that's the case, it's just a matter of "when" for Cris Carter.

Note: Carter is one of several former players with NFC North ties among the 15 semifinalists. That list also includes former Vikings defensive end Chris Doleman, current Green Bay Packers outside linebackers coach Kevin Greene and former Lions guard Dick Stanfel.
We're Black and Blue All Over:

In many ways, it's tough to criticize the Chicago Bears' hiring of Phil Emery as their new general manager. He is by all accounts a highly respected figure in NFL scouting circles, someone who has demonstrated the willingness to work all day and every day to unearth talent and separate the so-called contenders from pretenders. As we discussed Monday, his character and approach are that of an ex-Naval Academy conditioning coach, and he sounded in his introductory news conference like a fine person to work for.

About the only criticism I could find in the Chicago media was the suggestion that the Bears swung low in their search to replace general manager Jerry Angelo, valuing competence but also requiring a level of conformity to their existing structure that might have disqualified higher-profile candidates. Here's how Rick Morrissey of the Chicago Sun-Times put that sentiment:
"You get what you ask for. What the Bears asked for was a GM who has no desire to fire a middling head coach, a GM who thinks the team isn’t far away from being great and a GM who is extremely happy to be here. Check, check and check. Emery sounds like a man who can work with anyone who is put in front of him. That includes [coach Lovie] Smith, the scouting staff and, presumably, Staley the mascot, as long as he's a team player."

Regardless, I think we can use baseball terms to put this hire in proper perspective: The Bears put a runner in scoring position even if they weren't swinging for the fences.

Continuing around the NFC North:
  • David Haugh of the Chicago Tribune: "Much of the public listened to Emery and equated uninteresting with incapable, but be careful before jumping to conclusions. Judge Emery's substance, not his style."
  • Smith's job appears as safe as it could following a general-manager transition, writes Dan Pompei of the Tribune: "Emery did not sound a bit like a man intent on running out Smith as soon as possible so he can put his stamp on the Bears with the head coach of his choosing. In fact, he made it clear his goal is to ensure Smith is the coach of the Bears for a long time."
  • Jon Greenberg of ESPNChicago.com: "It seems to me, a professional scout of character, that Emery is an old-school, salt-of-the-earth football guy. He's certainly not a personality in the vein of Jerry Angelo, whose famous last words in Chicago were telling a reporter to 'whistle dixie.' But I have a feeling that Emery knows what he's talking about when he's in a room full of like-minded men. He's a scout, after all, a guy who works in anonymity, taking his victories mostly in silence."
  • Emery received a five-year contract, according to Brad Biggs of the Tribune.
  • The Bears will speak with Alex Van Pelt for their open quarterbacks coach position, according to Michael C. Wright of ESPNChicago.com.
  • The Minnesota Vikings are looking at a stadium site across the street from the Metrodome so that they can continue playing in the existing stadium until the new one is ready, writes Kevin Duchschere of the Star Tribune.
  • Bob Sansevere of the St. Paul Pioneer Press speaks with Hall of Fame candidate Chris Doleman.
  • Vikings director of player personnel George Paton interviewed Monday for the St. Louis Rams' general manager job, according to Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.
  • Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson was named The Sporting News' executive of the year, notes the Green Bay Press-Gazette.
  • Missed this from a few days ago, but Anwar S. Richardson of Mlive.com reported that many in the Detroit Lions organization are uncertain if running back Jahvid Best (concussions) will play again.
Four men with NFC North ties were among the 15 finalists announced Saturday for the Pro Football Hall of Fame's class of 2012. Final voting will take place Feb. 4. Here is a quick look:

Cris Carter
NFC North tie-in:
Played for Minnesota Vikings 1990-2001.
Comment: One of three receivers on the ballot, along with Tim Brown and Andre Reed.

Chris Doleman
NFC North tie-in:
Played for Minnesota Vikings 1985-93, 1999.
Comment: Has 150.5 career sacks, fourth-highest in NFL history.

Kevin Greene
NFC North tie-in:
Current Green Bay Packers outside linebackers coach
Comment: Has the most career sacks (160) of any player not in the Hall of Fame.

Dick Stanfel
NFC North tie-in:
Played for Detroit Lions 1952-55.
Comment: Nominated by Seniors Committee

Related: Our offseason discussion on the Hall of Fame prospects of Greene and Doleman.
Jared AllenMarilyn Indahl/US PresswireJared Allen's 3.5 sacks Sunday left him one shy of breaking the NFL single-season record.
MINNEAPOLIS -- Maybe it's a good thing that Jared Allen fell one sack short Sunday of setting the NFL record for sacks in a season. Asked what he would have done after breaking Michael Strahan's record of 22.5, Allen laughed and offered a nearly -- nearly -- preposterous scenario that would have made for a new level of in-game pandemonium.

"I probably would have thrown my helmet into the crowd," Allen said, "jumped up, ran up, kissed my wife and my baby in the suite, walked into the locker room and quit. No, I might have done some turf angels. Probably would have cried. [The Chicago Bears] probably would have gotten a first down -- a 15-yard penalty on me. I probably would have taken my shoulder pads off. So probably a good thing I didn't get it, right?"

Ha. Allen injected some drama into an otherwise droll Week 17 game, sacking Bears quarterback Josh McCown 3.5 times to finish the 2011 season with 22 sacks. That allowed him to surpass former Vikings record-holder Chris Doleman (21), whom the Vikings brought to the Metrodome for the occasion, and tie Mark Gastineau for the second-most in a 16-game season.

When we first started "AllenWatch" in October, I had my doubts that Allen or any other member of the Vikings could challenge the record. Sundays' 17-13 loss left the Vikings with a 3-13 record. Rarely did the Vikings have opponents in must-pass situations, limiting the opportunities for pass rushers like Allen.

I'm not sure whether Allen himself thought it possible; he said Sunday that his goal was to get 17 sacks so he could eclipse 100 for his career. He said that finishing with 22 was like "being the runner-up at the prom" but added: "I know it's possible now. I know it's possible. I'm going to work my butt off this offseason to try to help my team get back to the playoffs and to try to get that sack title."

The Bears started Sunday's game by regularly chipping and double-teaming the Vikings' edge rushers, according to Allen. But Vikings defensive coordinator Fred Pagac -- in perhaps his last game with the team -- called some blitz combinations that committed the Bears' extra blockers to the inside.

"So I got some one-on-ones on the edge there," said Allen, who collected sack No. 22 by beating left tackle J'Marcus Webb with 4 minutes, 46 seconds remaining in the third quarter.

"I told him he had 20 minutes to get one sack," defensive tackle Kevin Williams said. "But they changed it up after that."

Indeed, according to Williams, Allen and others, the Bears regularly devoted two tight ends to help Webb the rest of the way. Allen got nowhere close to sack No. 23. The Bears weren't going to give him the record, as some would suggest Green Bay Packers quarterback Brett Favre did for Strahan in 2001.

Allen said last week that "a sack is a sack is a sack" and that Favre's "slip" didn't diminish Strahan's accomplishment. Had Favre not "fallen," Allen would have walked away from Sunday's game with a share of the record once held by Gastineau.

"It doesn't bother me at all," he said. "Just being in the same breath as Strahan, and Gastineau and Doleman. … Man."

BBAO: Accuracy and Donovan McNabb

September, 29, 2011
9/29/11
7:15
AM ET
We're Black and Blue All Over:

The Minnesota Vikings' quest to smooth out quarterback Donovan McNabb's mechanics, as explained by Jeremy Fowler of the St. Paul Pioneer Press, is a warning sign on several levels.

First, McNabb is in his 13th season and will be 35 in November. You don't typically see NFL teams tinkering with the mechanics of a veteran and presumably established quarterback at that point in his career, especially during the season.

Second, the Vikings have reacted to McNabb missing some open receivers and having some accuracy issues. Quite frankly, McNabb is performing at about his career level in that area. He is completing 58.0 percent of his passes this season. His career completion percentage is 58.9. McNabb has been many things during his career, but the NFL's most accurate passer isn't one of them.

When asked if he needed to change anything Wednesday, McNabb said: "No."

I don't blame him. After 13 years in the NFL, usually you're best off going with what got you here.

Obviously, the Vikings have the right to identify flaws and should attempt to coach any player toward a direction that could makes him better. But when it's the accuracy of your veteran quarterback at issue, there won't be any easy fixes.

Continuing around the NFC North:
  • At a hearing about a referendum on the Vikings' stadium plans, opponents "overwhelmingly" outnumbered those who want to see the stadium built, according to Rochelle Olson of the Star Tribune.
  • The Vikings will induct defensive end Chris Doleman into their Ring of Honor next month, notes Tom Pelissero of 1500ESPN.com.
  • Chicago Bears offensive line coach Mike Tice won't get involved in play calling, according to Jeff Dickerson of ESPNChicago.com.
  • Bears special teams coach Dave Toub on the penalty that nullified the Bears' trick play last Sunday against the Green Bay Packers, via Mark Potash of the Chicago Sun-Times: "I'm not sure what he saw, to be honest with you. I think maybe the official thought [Corey Graham] was trying to prevent [Jarrett Bush] from going to Devin [Hester], which is where we wanted him to go. He was just kind of pushing him that way."
  • Hester said he needs to get more separation from defenders, according to Vaughn McClure of the Chicago Tribune.
  • Sunday's game at the Dallas Cowboys will be a homecoming for Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford. Carlos Monarrez of the Detroit Free Press has more.
  • Lions coach Jim Schwartz on the status of defensive tackle Nick Fairley (foot), via Tim Twentyman of the Detroit News: "He's on a good program and he's making improvements and we'll get him back on the field as soon as we can. That's a difficult thing to come back from. I think we're on a good program and we're in a position where we don't have to rush it and put ourselves in a position that's not good for either us or the player."
  • The Lions will face Cowboys pass-rusher DeMarcus Ware after consecutive weeks of facing Jared Allen and Tamba Hali, notes Philip Zaroo of Mlive.com.
  • Packers safety Morgan Burnett is quickly making a name for himself, writes Tyler Dunne of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
  • Packers center Scott Wells should be in line for a contract extension, writes Pete Dougherty of the Green Bay Press-Gazette.
  • Packers tailback Ryan Grant on the bruised kidney that could keep him out of Sunday's game against the Denver Broncos, via Jason Wilde of ESPNMilwaukee.com: "I feel fine. That's the problem, I guess -- that I feel fine. I guess that doesn't mean anything."
SportsNation asked you/me/us to pick the most deserving Pro Football Hall of Fame candidate from a group of five former players who finished their careers with more than 100 sacks.

The results were clear: At week's end, two-thirds of nearly 14,000 votes went to Kevin Greene. A few comments suggested the disparity could be a reflection of our current readership levels -- Greene is currently the Green Bay Packers' outside linebackers coach -- but never, ever, ever, never would I believe Packers fans would stuff the ballot on that connection alone.

Greene's resume speaks for itself. His 160 career sacks are the third-highest total since the NFL began tracking them in 1982. Both players above him, and six players below him on the NFL's top 100 sack leaders, are enshrined.

A few of you made impassioned arguments for longtime Minnesota Vikings defensive end Chris Doleman, whose 150.5 career sacks places him No. 4 on the NFL's all-time list. I'll pass two of them along for consideration on the floor:

Opabina wrote that Doleman was more deserving than a player who will be inducted this summer, former Chicago Bears defensive end Richard Dent:
Greene should get in, but I voted for Doleman because he is much more deserving than Richard Dent, who got in this year. Doleman and Dent played the same number of seasons (15, all but two overlapping) and in the same division, so the caliber of their opponents was essentially the same, but Doleman has 13 more career sacks and 243 more career tackles than Dent. Dent was Super Bowl MVP, but any number of players on the Bears defense were equally deserving of the award, and Doleman held the NFC single-season sack record for 12 years before Strahan broke it. People also forget that Doleman played LB his first two seasons and had just 3 1/2 sacks during those years, so he would probably have ~160-165 career sacks if he spent his entire career at DE (and maybe 190+ if he played as long as Smith). He has been criticized for supposedly ignoring the run, but if that's true, then how come he averaged more tackles per season than Bruce Smith and just 9 fewer per season than Reggie White, who played on the left side, where defending the run is more important? And anyone who downgrades Doleman's performance because he played with John Randle has to acknowledge that Dent played with Dan Hampton.
Supavike1, in fact, thought Doleman's career was more balanced than Greene's:
[H]ere is the bigger picture, which supports Doleman before Greene when you consider more than sacks.

Greene:

160 sacks, 669 total tackles, 23 forced fumbles, 5 INT, 1 TD

Doleman:

150.5 sacks, 914 total tackles, 44 forced fumbles, 8 INT, 2 TDs

I think 240 more tackles and double the number of FFs makes up for 9.5 fewer sacks.

Y'all have a great holiday weekend. I'll be taking some family time next week and will be back with you July 11.
On Monday, we published our latest "Calling Canton" post on the Hall of Fame prospects of defensive ends Julius Peppers (Chicago Bears) and Jared Allen (Minnesota Vikings). On Tuesday, our friends at SportsNation put together a nice interactive page of polls to tie in.

SportsNation

Which of these Canton-eligible players with 100-plus sacks is most deserving of enshrinement?

  •  
    15%
  •  
    68%
  •  
    10%
  •  
    3%
  •  
    4%

Discuss (Total votes: 19,919)

You can weigh in on whether you think Peppers and/or Allen will (or should) make the Pro Football Hall of Fame, name the best defensive lineman in the NFC North or help determine whether 100-plus sacks should make a player a near-lock for enshrinement.

For the purposes of moving our conversation forward, I've pulled one of the polls directly into this post. (Actually, ESPN.com blog editor Brett Longdin did the heavy lifting.) We want to know which of five retired players are most deserving of a call to Canton.

Among the group are two players with NFC North ties: Current Green Bay Packers outside linebackers coach Kevin Greene and former Vikings defensive end Chris Doleman. Greene and Doleman rank No. 3 and No. 4, respectively, on the NFL's all-time list for sacks. The two players above them, Bruce Smith and Reggie White, are both enshrined.

I'll track progress of the poll and circle back on the results later this week in modified "Have at It" form.
Jared Allen and Julius PeppersUS PresswireWill Canton make room for predominant pass-rushers Jared Allen and Julius Peppers?
Another in a series on NFC North players whose career trajectories put them on a path to consideration for the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

NFL teams value pass-rushing more than any skill outside of quarterbacking, and here in the NFC North we have two of the best of this generation. Chicago Bears defensive end Julius Peppers (89 career sacks) and Minnesota Vikings defensive end Jared Allen (83) have outright dominated many games during their careers. But is either on track for future enshrinement in Canton, Ohio?

My short answer: It could go either way.

Sacks didn't become an official statistic until 1982. In reviewing how Hall of Fame voters have judged pass-rushers since then, a few tenets seem clear:
  1. Sack totals alone, no matter how high, don't guarantee enshrinement. Otherwise, linebacker Kevin Greene (currently a Green Bay Packers assistant coach) and defensive end Chris Doleman would have been elected a long time ago. Greene has 160 career sacks, the third-most in NFL history. Doleman's 150.5 rank No. 5. They are two of 25 players with 100 or more career sacks, and eight of those 25 are in the Hall of Fame.
  2. The first chart is a list of the eight Hall of Fame defensive linemen and linebackers whose careers took place during the sack era. I included Oakland Raiders defensive lineman Howie Long and New York Giants linebacker Lawrence Taylor, whose careers began in 1981, and eliminated Bears linebacker Mike Singletary because pass-rushing wasn't much of a factor in his enshrinement. All but Long had at least 100 sacks. So although 100-plus sacks doesn't guarantee enshrinement, it's almost always a prerequisite. There is every reason to believe that Peppers, who is 31, and Allen, 29, can and will pass that milestone.
  3. Voters clearly perform a subjective judgment to determine which players with high sack totals deserve enshrinement. Generally speaking, players who seem classified as "pure" pass-rushers, including Greene and Doleman, face a higher bar than those who were more generally regarded as "havoc-wreakers." Examples: Long, Andre Tippett, Taylor, Rickey Jackson and John Randle.

Given their career arcs, both Peppers and Allen might have to justify a "havoc-wreaker" enshrinement. They've got good chances to break the 100-sack barrier, but how much further will they go? Peppers could reach Randle-Taylor-Richard Dent territory by averaging 10 sacks a year for the next five seasons. I would say that 50 sacks between the ages of 31 and 36 represents the high end of what Peppers might achieve.

Allen is 2 years younger, and a similar 50-sack run over the next five years could put him in the same territory by 34. That's a reasonable projection, but I wonder whether voters will discard Allen into the "pure pass-rusher" category that currently houses Greene, Doleman, Leslie O'Neal (137.5 career sacks), Simeon Rice (122) and Clyde Simmons (121.5).

One gauge to consider is ESPN.com's positional power rankings, although I recognize that it simply represents the thoughts of eight slappy bloggers. (But remember, Hall of Fame election is determined by 44 other slappy writers and broadcasters.) Allen was rated as the No. 4 pass-rusher but didn't receive a single vote for best defensive player.

For what it's worth, Peppers ranked No. 8 on the overall defensive player list. And I found it interesting last week that when asked to name the NFL's best player at the moment, Bears linebacker Brian Urlacher quickly responded: "Peppers."

In an admittedly subjective question, I ask: If Peppers and Allen finish their careers with similar sack totals, who is more likely to be elected to the Hall of Fame? I'm going to guess Peppers, barring a dramatic career arc adjustment for either player.

Comparing current players to Hall of Famers is only part of the discussion, however. As we noted in our post on Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, candidates also must be compared to their contemporaries. In theory, only those who dominated their respective eras should be enshrined.

Our next two charts address that topic.

Since he entered the league in 2002, Peppers ranks third in sacks. Allen, meanwhile, has more sacks than any other NFL player since he was drafted in 2004.

So let's say Peppers and Allen finish their careers in the 130-140 sack range. Both will have been among the most productive pass-rushers of their time, but they'll also be "competing" against a number of contemporaries with similar credentials. We of course hope that all deserving players eventually get in, but the definition of "deserving" can be relative.

To that end, it should be noted that defensive end Michael Strahan (141.5 sacks) would seem relatively assured of enshrinement. End/linebacker Jason Taylor (132.5) and Dwight Freeney (94) also will be considered.

Both Peppers and Allen have potential career spans long enough to settle this debate definitively on their own. But as it stands now, with Peppers entering his 10th season and Allen his eighth, we can say they've done enough to enter the Hall of Fame conversation. Both have more work to do, and it needs to be at the same standard they've set thus far.

Earlier: Rodgers has put himself in on the path toward Canton.

BBAO: Mike Tice and the Titans

February, 14, 2011
2/14/11
7:45
AM ET
We're Black and Blue All Over:

Hopefully everyone had an outstanding, if not bittersweet, FWWF. (First Weekend Without Football.) Apparently, there is life on the other side.

It was a relatively quiet one in the NFC North, with the exception of this report from Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune. According to Biggs, the Tennessee Titans are expressing interest in speaking with Chicago Bears offensive line coach Mike Tice about their open offensive coordinator job.

Tice's work in 2010 has pushed his name back into circulation among NFL teams. His roots are in the "three-digit" offensive system popularized by Don Coryell with the San Diego Chargers and perfected by Joe Gibbs with the Washington Redskins. Tice believes in power running and downfield passing, in that order.

With that said, Tice has never been a full-time offensive coordinator nor a primary playcaller. The Bears might be smart to figure out a way to keep Tice rather than let the Titans decide whether to make him an offer. Blocking an interview is one possibility. A contract upgrade is another.

Continuing around the NFC North:
  • Losing Tice now would make his replacement difficult to find, notes Sean Jensen of the Chicago Sun-Times.
  • Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel offers the 10 most important plays in the Green Bay Packers' season. The story also provides a link to the Journal Sentinel's year-end grades of the Packers.
  • Mike Vandermause of the Green Bay Press-Gazette on Packers general manager Ted Thompson: "I would like to see the 1,500 or so knuckleheads that signed a petition calling for Thompson's firing in 2008 to publicly proclaim how wrong they were. I understand how difficult it must have been to see Favre go -- no one can deny how much he meant to the Packers for 16 seasons. But that was no excuse to engage in the character assassination of Thompson. It was petty, vindictive and downright shameful at times. Thompson has survived with his dignity and class intact. He had zero interest in gloating or rubbing his critics' noses in the Packers' Super Bowl success last Sunday night."
  • Detroit Lions center Dominic Raiola, via Carlos Monarrez of the Detroit Free Press: "I think the thing is when we start playing again, regardless of when we start playing again, we're still going to have ended up the last time we stepped on the field winning four in a row. We have enough guys in this locker room that know what they need to do in this off-season. They know how to take care of their body. And I think guys realize where this team is going. It's going up. We have a lot of pros in here that will take care of themselves."
  • Detroit News reporter Jerry Green, who has covered all 45 Super Bowls, writes that Dallas/Fort Worth was the worst site in the game's history.
  • Minnesota Vikings tight end Visanthe Shiancoe is looking forward to being featured in the team's new offense, writes Judd Zulgad of the Star Tribune.
  • Vikings defensive tackle Kevin Williams had knee surgery earlier this month, reports Zulgad.
  • Former Vikings defensive end Chris Doleman on falling short of the Pro Football Hall of Fame, via Jeremy Fowler of the St. Paul Pioneer Press: "It would be a great honor, but I'm not going to sit up here and say I need to have it to feel that my career was complete. They can't change your numbers. They might keep you off the ballot, but when people look up your numbers, they'll see it."
DALLAS -- The Pro Football Hall of Fame voting committee will gather here Saturday morning to determine the class of 2011. Three players with significant NFC North ties are finalists: Receiver Cris Carter, defensive end Richard Dent and defensive end Chris Doleman.

Handicapping their chances for enshrinement requires the acknowledgment that two other finalists, cornerback Deion Sanders and running back Marshall Faulk, are widely considered to be locks for election. That leaves 13 men competing for three spots, and a tremendous campaign is under way to push NFL Films founder Ed Sabol into one of those positions.

Regardless of the politics involved, let's stay in our lane (for now) and consider our neck of the woods. The announcement is scheduled for Saturday at 7 p.m. ET.

Carter
Carter
Cris Carter
Key qualification:
When he retired after the 2002 season, he ranked second on the NFL's all-time list of receptions (1,101) and touchdowns (130).
Working against him: Receivers historically have a tougher time than at other positions. There are currently 21 receivers in the Hall of Fame, fewer than running backs (27), quarterbacks (23), offensive linemen (35) and defensive linemen (28). I refuse to believe that Carter's at-times caustic personality has impacted anyone's view of his on-field performance. But you never know for sure. Carter also will be competing with fellow receiver Tim Brown on this ballot.

Dent
Dent
Richard Dent
Key qualification: When he retired after the 1995 season, his 137.5 sacks ranked third all-time in the NFL, thanks in part to a run of five consecutive seasons with 10 or more sacks.
Working against him: There is nothing from a statistical standpoint to argue for Dent's continued exclusion. But for whatever reason, he has been passed over by other 100-sack players like Fred Dean, Bruce Smith and John Randle in recent years. This year, he is competing against two others in Doleman and Charles Haley. Sometimes players get lost in the maze. In the end, you hope that voters decide Dent has waited long enough.

Doleman
Doleman
Chris Doleman
Key qualification: You might not realize it, but Doleman's 150 career sacks rank fourth all-time in the NFL. Only Smith, Reggie White and Kevin Greene had more.
Working against him: He's competing with two other high-sack players in Dent and Haley who have more ballot tenure. Also, Greene's exclusion demonstrates that voters don't always reward sack totals in a vacuum.
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