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We're Black and Blue All Over:

Chicago Bears linebacker Brian Urlacher confirmed Tuesday night that he isn't likely to participate in organized team activities (OTAs) -- and probably not veteran minicamp, either -- as he rehabilitates a sprained knee suffered in a Week 17 game against the Minnesota Vikings. Urlacher told reporters that he expects to be ready to start training camp, a completely reasonable schedule that nevertheless highlights one of the few holes on the team's roster.

Namely: Who would play for Urlacher if he was injured during the regular season?

According to ESPNChicago.com's Jeff Dickerson, second-year linebacker Dom DeCicco -- an undrafted free agent in 2011 -- will take the majority of snaps during the offseason. If nothing else, the Bears should know at the end of the spring whether DeCicco is capable of filling in for Urlacher in a regular-season environment, or whether they would need to look elsewhere. Finding a long-term replacement for Urlacher, 33, remains one of the most important challenges facing this franchise.

Continuing around the NFC North:

• Urlacher, via Vaughn McClure of the Chicago Tribune: "It's getting better. I'm on schedule, so I feel good. At this stage, I know the defense pretty well. I'm not worried about being out there and not knowing what I'm doing.''
• Bears receiver Brandon Marshall on his reunion with quarterback Jay Cutler and quarterbacks coach Jeremy Bates, via Sean Jensen of the Chicago Sun-Times: "That just doesn't happen in sports. You don’t have a Pro Bowl receiver and a Pro Bowl quarterback and one of the most talented minds in football in Jeremy Bates back together. It just doesn't."
• Mike Freeman of CBSSports.com thinks the Detroit Lions can contend for the Super Bowl -- "[b]ut only if this team can harness what is an amazing lack of self-control. The Lions remain one of the least disciplined teams in football."
• Bob Wojnowski of the Detroit News: "Dumb stuff happens in football, as in life. But the Lions have too much at stake now to be dealing with it, way too much to gain and way too much to lose. The spate of player incidents -- mostly minor -- is not a sign of a rambunctious team losing its way. But it's a pointed reminder that young talent is unpredictable, and a warning that the Lions' rough edges still need work."
• Lions cornerback Chris Houston isn't ready to be anyone's mentor, writes the News' Chris McCosky.
• Lori Nickel of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel covered the MACC Fund charity event in Milwaukee headlined by Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
• Packers coach Mike McCarthy on his 2012 team, via Mike Vandermause of the Green Bay Press-Gazette: "This is clearly the most experienced football team in conjunction with the most talent that I've had a chance to coach."
• Tom Oates of the Wisconsin State Journal: "The Green Bay Packers’ all-defense, all-the-time draft has already achieved one of its goals. The six rookie defenders have supplied a jolt of energy for a defense -- and a team -- that might have grown a little complacent after following up its victory in Super Bowl XLV with a 15-1 regular season in 2011."
• Packers linebacker Clay Matthews on moving to the right side, with rookie Nick Perry taking over on the left side, via Jason Wilde of ESPNMilwaukee.com: "The misnomer about the position is that we're stuck to one side. On paper, it's going to say 'left outside linebacker' or 'right outside linebacker.' Really, those positions are interchangeable, so the faster we can get [Perry] up to speed, the faster we can have some fun moving him around, flying around and making some plays together."
• Packers defensive end Anthony Hargrove didn't have much to add about his role in the New Orleans Saints' bounty story after Tuesday's OTA, according to Tyler Dunne of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
• The Packers' defensive additions in the draft were "expected" and "necessary," according to linebacker Desmond Bishop via Rob Demovsky of the Press-Gazette.
• Dave Campbell of the Associated Press looks ahead at the Minnesota Vikings' three-week stay for training camp.
• The Vikings have signed a total of seven of their draft picks, according to Jeremy Fowler of the St. Paul Pioneer Press.

Thanks to those of you who turned out for a mid-May chat on a lazy Tuesday afternoon. Among other things, we had the chance to react in near-real time to the Green Bay Packers' current arrangement of outside linebackers. The relevant exchange after the Packers debuted Clay Matthews as their right outside linebacker during Tuesday's organized team activity and rookie Nick Perry as the left outside linebacker:

John (Wisconsin)

Do you think its a good move or great move to put Mathews at ROLB?

Kevin Seifert (2:32 PM)

Yes, for those who didn't hear: The Packers put Matthews back at ROLB in today's OTA, with rookie Nick Perry at LOLB. There are a lot of factors here, including the possibility that it's an offseason experiment. I like the idea of getting Matthews against an opponent's second-best pass protector when he's on the left side, but that also puts him in position to defend more tight ends and play the run head-on more often. So overall, I'm fine if they use him at ROLB, even if it means he's facing opposing left tackles.

Matthews played on the right side as a rookie, when he had 10 sacks, but not in his second year, which yielded 13.5 sacks. In speaking with reporters Tuesday, coach Mike McCarthy suggested the Packers want to make sure Matthews isn't easy to find -- an issue cornerback Charles Woodson noted bluntly last season -- and also want to make things simpler for Perry.

McCarthy: "In Nick's specific case, yes, we want to look at the left side. Clay has played both sides now, so we want to make sure we continue to create targeting problems with Clay Matthews. Just like with any young player, you want to have a starting point, and right now we want to look and see how comfortable Nick is on the left side. Nick will be given a chance to play early."

My guess is we will re-visit this topic a time or two before September.

We're Black and Blue All Over:

So I tuned in to "Dancing with the Stars" as promised Monday night. It won't rival "LOST" or even "Al TV" on my personal list of favorites. But one of the NFC North's most prominent players over the past decade is a cast member, and I'm well aware of the interest level from many Green Bay Packers fans in Driver's fate on the show.

As it turned out, Driver scored a combined 57 out of a possible 60 on his two dances of the evening, putting him in third place on the judges' scorecard. But that is only part of the final score, and we'll find out Tuesday night whether audience/viewer voting impacted the ranking and who exactly will advance to the finals of the show.

I took away a couple cool moments Monday night. On the day after Mother's Day, Driver tearfully praised his mother, Faye, for being "my soldier for a long time." Also, I laughed when the camera panned the audience after Driver absorbed some criticism from a judge. You could see Packers coach Mike McCarthy with the same quizzical facial expression he usually directs at officials during games. McCarthy sat right next to quarterback Aaron Rodgers and linebacker Clay Matthews. Very solid support.

Continuing around the NFC North:

• Michael Hunt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel thinks the "handwriting is on the ballroom floor for" Driver's departure from the organization.
• The Packers signed five players who participated in their rookie minicamp on a tryout basis, notes the Green Bay Press-Gazette.
• Detroit Lions rookie receiver Ryan Broyles on what he picked up by watching rookie minicamp, via Rod Beard of the Detroit News: "It's a great offense. I've been catching on a little bit now and see how they do it -- a lot like Oklahoma. They like to get out there and run three receivers -- sometimes four -- and even empty the backfield, so I think it's going to be a good offense to be a part of."
• Lions defensive tackle Nick Fairley's court date stemming from an April marijuana arrest was moved back to July 31, according to Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press.
• Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler on the right thumb he fractured last season, via the Associated Press: "It's fine. I really didn't throw a lot in the offseason, rehabbed a little bit and came back and felt good."
• Cutler isn't going along with the Bears' rampant optimism about their offensive line, notes Sean Jensen of the Chicago Sun-Times. Cutler: "You know, the offensive line is definitely going to be a concern and seeing where those guys are going to fit in and seeing what five we go with. If Gabe [Carimi] comes back, if J'Marcus [Webb] pans out. Where are we going to put Chris Williams? There are some question marks there. Until we really get that resolved and get our front five settled in, we've got some work to do on offense."
• Signs still point to the Bears moving Williams back to tackle, according to Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune.
• Judd Zulgad of 1500ESPN.com digs a little deeper into the friendship between Minnesota Vikings receivers Jarius Wright and Greg Childs.
• The Vikings' new stadium deal shields the public from their financial books, notes the Associated Press.

On Friday, we posted some basic but important questions about the trio of NFC North rookie minicamps held over the weekend. I thought they would help us keep focused amid discussion about dozens of players who probably won't make an NFL team, let alone make an impact on the 2012 season.

Below, I've addressed the questions with updated information culled from a variety of sources. Links are provided when appropriate. In one case, I offered a rarely-seen "bonus" section. Don't say I never do anything for you.

Chicago Bears: What is the conditioning level of receiver Alshon Jeffery?

By all accounts, Jeffery was having a nice opening practice Friday -- "picking peanuts off some guys' heads," according to offensive coordinator Mike Tice -- before leaving with leg cramps.

Cramps are not unusual at rookie camps, where nerves and a lack of familiarity often lead to inadequate hydration and/or eating. Jeffery's pre-draft questions about work ethic and conditioning add a level to this particular departure, but he returned for the weekend practices without incident.

"Most of the guys are a little sore right now, but we see a guy with great hands, a big target that will only get better," Bears coach Lovie Smith said. "He should be in the mix to help us win games this year."

Bonus: Here's what Tice had to say about criticism of the Bears' depth at tackle, a position they did not draft to: "If we felt that tackle was a dire need for us, I'm sure they would have answered the bell on draft day. With the change in scheme, the change in personality and an offseason and getting some guys healthy, I think we'll make a big jump in the offensive line. It takes time for young guys to play good in all areas. And we have a couple young guys who have played good football in half the scheme, and they need to step it up in the other half. Plus, we have some guys who got hurt, and we need to get those guys back."

Detroit Lions: How many positions is offensive lineman Riley Reiff playing? Also, how much work, if any, is receiver Ryan Broyles doing?

The Lions rotated Reiff between left tackle and right tackle on a per-practice basis, but there were no reports of him seeing time at guard. That doesn't mean he won't eventually get some work there as a possible competitor for right guard Stephen Peterman, but on his first weekend the Lions limited him to the two positions he figured to be most familiar with.

Lions coach Jim Schwartz clearly subscribes to the "less is more" philosophy on drawing conclusions in rookie camp. But here were his early impressions of the Lions' first-round draft choice: "You can tell as much of what we did here today about him as we could outside [of practice.] I mean walkthroughs, meetings and things like that. You can tell that he's an experienced, smart, confident player and he’s going to do well for us."

Broyles, on the other hand, observed but did not participate in any of the practices as he continues to recover from a November knee injury. The question now becomes whether he will be cleared in time for training camp or whether he will open camp on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list.

Schwartz wouldn't commit to a timetable on when Broyles will be able to practice or play a game but said: "[H]e's on a good path. He's had a good rehab so far. He showed it in his pro day and he's shown it here. It depends on what happens between now and then."

Green Bay Packers: How rough does Nick Perry look at outside linebacker? Also, are there any clues that B.J. Coleman will be able to challenge Graham Harrell for the No. 2 quarterback job?

The biggest news on Perry is that the Packers started him off as the left outside linebacker, which is where Clay Matthews played the past two seasons. Coach Mike McCarthy wouldn't say whether that meant Matthews will move to the rights side or if Perry will initially be slotted as a backup. But as Pete Dougherty of the Green Bay Press-Gazette pointed out, most 3-4 teams prefer their biggest outside linebacker to work on the left side to stand up against opponents who are generally right-handed running teams.

Meanwhile, Coleman demonstrated notable arm strength in comparison to fellow quarterback Nick Hill, according to Rob Demovsky of the Press-Gazette. That's a good start. Whether he can challenge Harrell depends on how quickly he can learn the Packers' offense, and according to McCarthy, how long it takes him to adapt to an entirely new set of footwork techniques required at the professional level.

If our ESPN.com blogger mock draft provides any indication as to how the real thing will go, the NFC North's primary section of the first round -- No. 19 through No. 28 -- will be a prime landing spot for a number of the pass-rushing defensive ends/outside linebackers some of our teams are coveting.

I connected Illinois defensive end Whitney Mercilus with the Chicago Bears at No. 19 and, as we discussed in more detail Tuesday, slotted Boise State linebacker Shea McClellin for the Green Bay Packers at No. 28. But there were a number of other pass-rushers who entered the discussion, and for a little bit of depth on that group, we turn to STATS Inc. for an analysis of their pass rush in 2011.

Statistics are less reliable indicators of performance in college because of what can sometimes be disparate levels of competition. But the chart shows how the most notable pass-rushers in this draft stacked up against one another, not only in terms of sacks last season in college, but also in combined knockdowns and hurries.

Some of the analysis is subjective, but as we've always noted, it's still informative as long as the same criteria are applied to each player. The rankings show us that Mercilus was one of the most productive pass-rushers in college football last season. McClellin, on the other hand, trailed the pack.

NFL teams consider college production a secondary tool in evaluating players. If it were primary, it's doubtful the Packers would have drafted Clay Matthews in the 2009 first round. Matthews had 4.5 sacks as a senior at USC.

Again, the NFL draft is rarely this predictable. But if our teams find themselves choosing from among this group of pass-rushers, we at least have a better idea of how productive each player was in his final college season.

We're Black and Blue All Over:

It's safe to say the Chicago Bears are interested in upgrading their depth at linebacker after a whirlwind of veteran free-agent visits this week. According to ESPNChicago.com, the list includes Rocky McIntosh, Bryan Kehl and Zac Diles.

The Bears were thin at the position last year behind starters Brian Urlacher, Lance Briggs and Nick Roach. But anyone they sign at this point should be viewed as a backup who could potentially compete with Roach to start during training camp.

The bigger issue the Bears face is finding eventual replacements for Urlacher, who turns 34 next month and Briggs, who turns 32 in November. That work will have to be done during the draft.

Continuing around the NFC North:

• The Bears signed veteran guard Chilo Rachal, notes Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune.
• The Bears will "do just fine" with defensive tackle Henry Melton, writes Dan Pompei of the Tribune.
• The NFL has turned up the heat on the Minnesota Vikings' stadium situation, but at least one state legislator wasn't happy to hear the league trying to "drive policy" for state government, according to Doug Belden of the St. Paul Pioneer Press.
• Sid Hartman of the Star Tribune repeats a familiar message: Replacing a relocated team is always more expensive than giving the original team a new stadium.
• Minnesota Gov. Mark Dayton has spoken with NFL commissioner Roger Goodell, according to the Associated Press via 1500ESPN.com. Another conversation is expected Thursday morning, which will include Pittsburgh Steelers owner Art Rooney.
• Green Bay Packers linebacker Clay Matthews privately lamented the loss of defensive end Cullen Jenkins last season, writes Pete Dougherty of the Green Bay Press-Gazette.
• Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel begins his position-by-position draft evaluations with quarterbacks.
• Young Detroit Lions players will benefit from the team's offseason program, writes Justin Rogers of Mlive.com.
• Washington running back Chris Polk could be a target of the Lions, writes Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press.
• Lions season-ticket sales appear to be brisk this spring, according to Eric Lacy of the Detroit News.

PALM BEACH, Fla. -- In recent years, I would arrive at the NFL owners meetings in late March to annual questions on the Green Bay Packers' apparent abdication of the free-agent market. What are the Packers up to? That's what officials from other teams wanted to know. My answer was always the same: This isn't Packers season. That starts at the end of April.

This year? Not so much. Last week, center Jeff Saturday became the first unrestricted free agent to sign with the Packers in three years. The team also hosted defensive lineman Anthony Hargrove on a visit, and reports suggest defensive end Dave Tollefson and offensive tackle Demetrius Bell could also visit in the next week or so.

Already, it's the most active stretch of free agency for general manager Ted Thompson since 2006, when he signed defensive lineman Ryan Pickett and cornerback Charles Woodson. Indeed, as of Tuesday, Pickett, Woodson and Saturday remain the only players on the Packers' roster to have been acquired as unrestricted free agents.

What has gotten into Thompson? Did the Packers' early exit from the 2011 playoffs spur a change of philosophy? Did somebody sprinkle the Lambeau Field coffee with extra caffeine?

Not if you ask Thompson, as a few of us did this week here at the NFL owners meetings. Thompson smiled and said: "I know you guys don't believe me. But we're always active in free agency."

Right. And I hit the treadmill every day.

Thompson added: "There have been years, a couple years in a row when we haven't actually signed anybody. It doesn't mean that we weren't active, pursuing leads, trying to understand the market, doing all of that. … Sometimes the market runs away from you, and you keep your hands in your pocket."

In all seriousness, it's not as if the Packers have stayed pat as a rule over the years. In 2009, for example, they expressed interest in defensive lineman Chris Canty but wouldn't make him an offer before he visited Green Bay, as he demanded.

Still, it's hard to look at what's happened so far in 2012 and write it off as random. Given his druthers, I think we know that Thompson would prefer to remain in the background in March. So I see at least a couple of issues at play here.

First, and most important, the Packers have encountered what I could call "Ted Thompson's Imperfect Storm." The Packers have specific needs at important positions where depth is thin, and the draft provides an untenable risk. That was certainly the case at center, a position that might rank second to quarterback in order of importance in the Packers' offense and had no obvious heir on the roster.

Thompson acknowledged that teams have found immediate starters at center in the draft, but that player almost certainly couldn't shoulder the play-calling responsibilities of a Packers center even if he was physically ready to compete with NFL-caliber defensive linemen.

In his typical understated way, Thompson said: "I think it's an important position. The whole makeup on our offense. We asked [former center Scott Wells] to do a lot. We'll ask Jeff to do a lot. … I do think in free agency you're able to target more specific things as opposed to the draft, when we try to take the best player."

The same could be said of the Packers' clear focus on pass-rushers. The Packers have a clear need for a right end and an outside linebacker to play opposite Clay Matthews. But in the current pass-happy era of the NFL, you'd better believe that the other 31 teams are deeply in need of pass-rushers as well. Now more than ever, the Packers would be foolish to close the door on every possible avenue for upgrades.

Second, I wonder whether the Packers weren't at least cautioned by their experience with former defensive end Cullen Jenkins last year. Their anticipated succession plan, 2010 second-round draft pick Mike Neal, suffered a training camp knee injury and made little impact. It's difficult to project injuries, even for a player like Neal, who has endured more than his share. But the Packers' diminished pass rush made a huge impact on their defensive struggles, thus highlighting the risk in counting on unestablished players at key positions.

Every team would love to follow the Packers' style from recent years, relying almost entirely on drafted players to win the Super Bowl. But you wonder whether they were the exception to the rule. Even the best teams need help from the outside at least occasionally, and credit Thompson for acting on that -- even if he did it with his nose pinched and his eyes closed tightly.

Yes, Thompson admitted that he wasn't at Lambeau Field when Saturday arrived last week for his recruiting visit. He was at Iowa's pro day instead. He called Saturday to make sure there would be no hard feelings about his absence and said it was more critical for coach Mike McCarthy to handle the visit. To quote one of my favorite movies: Small moves, Ellie. Small moves.

Given how fluid this time of year is, I once again mined the mailbag for questions and topics that didn't figure to be impacted by breaking news over the weekend. You can get in touch with me via the mailbag, Twitter or our nearly full Facebook page.

Onward….

Mark of San Diego writes: I've seen several columnists comment on the high amount of drops Brandon Marshall has had in his career, but they all mention in almost the same breath how many targets he gets. Is there a chart someplace (like maybe a future blog post) that shows drops as a percent of targets?

Kevin Seifert: That's a good and fair question, Mark. Statistics are always more valuable when viewed in context, and it stands to reason that the more passes a player is thrown, the more likely he'll have a higher number of drops.

The raw number, according to ESPN Stats & Information, is that Marshall has dropped 26 passes since 2008, the third-highest total in the NFL over that stretch. I don't have his total targets over that stretch, but I can give you a glimpse into his drop percentage over the past two seasons and how that fits into the league rankings.

In 2010, Marshall had a drop percentage of 8.5, which ranked 60th in the NFL that season. That means 59 receivers caught a higher percentage of the catchable passes thrown their way.

In 2011, Marshall's drop percentage was 6.9, ranking him No. 52 in the league.

In this case, the percentage confirms what the raw numbers suggest. Marshall's drops weren't only a function of his high involvement in the Miami Dolphins offense. He missed more catchable passes than dozens of other NFL receivers.

To be clear, that shouldn't take away from Marshall's accomplishments as one of the league's most productive receivers over that period. The percentages merely give us a broader view of his performance.

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Matt of Appleton, Wis., is curious about the long-term salary cap implications of Detroit Lions receiver Calvin Johnson's new contract.

Kevin Seifert: Johnson signed what is technically an eight-year, $132 million deal. Deals that long often get restructured before the end, but usually teams at least leave the first three years intact before going back at it.

To that end, former agent Joel Corry provided a three-year cap breakdown for the National Football Post. The deal will count $11.5 million against the cap in 2012, $12.2 million in 2013 and $12.2 million in 2014, according to Corry.

It's never ideal to have a player count more than $10 million against the cap, especially in the case of the Lions, who have three players -- Johnson, quarterback Matthew Stafford and defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh -- who will always have high cap numbers because they were top draft picks under the previous NFL system for rookie contracts.

But remember, Johnson was going to count $22 million this season against the cap, and if he received the franchise tag, $26.4 million in 2013 and $31 million in 2014. Considered that way, his new cap charges seem quite reasonable.

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Eric of Fariview Heights, Ill., isn't satisfied with our explanation for why the Minnesota Vikings didn't participate more actively in the opening days of free agency. Carl Nicks is 26 and probably if not absolutely is the best guard in the league. A five year deal helps Ponder and Peterson, neither of which are getting protected. Talks with an aged, twice injured TE is more important than a top WR signing? Explain! So we want Percy Harvin, John Carlson, and Kyle Rudolph clogging up the middle? Where is our deep threat? How can you write an article defending not going after Nicks, a top receiver, OR one of the top cornerbacks? I mean seeing how we've been HORRIBLE in the secondary... It's a joke. Let's hear the true talk on this inactivity please!?

Kevin Seifert: That's fair. First I'll give you a rundown of what I would guess the Vikings were thinking, and then I'll offer my own comments.

Six years ago, the Vikings signed Steve Hutchinson to the biggest contract for a guard in NFL history. Historically, however, NFL teams don't like to devote cap space to the guard position. There are too many instances of success when inserting younger, cheaper players into those jobs while spending your money on left tackle and center. Hutchinson, the Vikings thought then and now, was a once-in-a-generation player.

Rather than devoting $47.5 million to Nicks over the next five years, the Vikings figure they can move Charlie Johnson to left guard. Johnson signed a three-year, $10 million contract last summer. He might not perform to Nicks' level, but is the difference between Nicks and Johnson worth, say, twice or three times the salary cap space? The Vikings didn't think so.

The same goes for cornerback. The Vikings will get the promising Chris Cook back on the field in 2012, which is an automatic upgrade from what they finished with. I can only assume that they didn't think any of the cornerbacks available on the market, most notably Brandon Carr and Cortland Finnegan, were worth the $10 million annual salaries they eventually received.

As for Carlson, none of us can pretend to understand whether he is a risk for injury moving forward. Beyond that, the Vikings saw him as a polished 27-year-old pass-catcher who could make their offensive more dynamic. Does he solve all of their problems, including the deep threat issue? No. But that doesn't mean he can't help.

General manager Rick Spielman said last week that the team wasn't "one player away" from contending for the Super Bowl. That's one of the reasons the Vikings weren't more aggressive. A fair counterargument, of course, is this: What if they are? What if quarterback Christian Ponder develops quickly, and tailback Adrian Peterson returns to form and the offensive line improves with the presumed drafting of Matt Kalil?

In that case, the Vikings would be vulnerable in their otherwise unaddressed secondary, and a chance to have a better-than-expected season could be quashed. I'm fine with the Vikings sitting out the crazy receiver market. I do question if they're going to be able to field a competitive defensive secondary, but we'll withhold final judgment until the full players acquisition period is complete.

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Grayson of Roseville, Calif., writes: Why wouldn't the Packers have made a play for Mario Williams? I know they don't often do anything in free agency but Williams seems too good to pass up, like Reggie White and Charles Woodson were. It makes so much sense!

Kevin Seifert: It makes sense from the standpoint of the Packers needing a pass rusher (or two) and Williams is the best pass rusher on the market. Williams has more experience as a 4-3 end rather than a 3-4 outside linebacker, but perhaps the idea of playing opposite Clay Matthews -- and the presumably favorable matchups that would go with it -- might have been enough to lure him to the Packers.

But as we noted during the week, the Packers aren't really in position to start handing out $100 million contracts to free agents -- at least, not if they plan to re-sign a trio of players who are in line for extensions. Matthews, receiver Greg Jennings and quarterback Aaron Rodgers could have their deals addressed in the next calendar year. I'm guessing the Packers prioritized them over any free agent.

With that said, it doesn't mean the Packers couldn't afford to investigate other free agent pass rushers. I wouldn't be opposed to them pursuing Kamerion Wimbley, whom the Oakland Raiders released Friday.

By this point, the Green Bay Packers' quiet approach to veteran free agency should surprise no one. We've had endless debates about the pros and cons of their philosophy, but in the spring of 2012, I think we should all have a clear understanding of the "why."

In the next 12 months or so, the Packers will face contract negotiations with three of the best players at their positions in the NFL. Receiver Greg Jennings is entering the final year of his contract, linebacker Clay Matthews has two years remaining on his rookie deal, and there is a general understanding that quarterback Aaron Rodgers has outperformed the contract he signed shortly after taking over as the Packers' starter in 2008.

Free agent activity this week has offered us a peak at the numbers the Packers likely will hear, and to no surprise, they're going to be high. Let's start with Jennings, who has to be smiling ear-to-ear after watching the money thrown at receivers this week.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers set the market for the top receiver available by signing Vincent Jackson to a five-year, $55 million deal with $26 million guaranteed. If Jennings were to hit the open market in 2013, he could reasonably expect Jackson's deal to serve as a baseline for negotiations.

Both players have been fortunate enough to play with elite quarterbacks and in steady passing offenses. As the chart shows, Jennings is a bit younger than Jackson, and has produced at a much higher rate over his career.

We'll set aside the $132 million contract of Detroit Lions receiver Calvin Johnson, as well as the $120 million deal Larry Fitzgerald signed last summer with the Arizona Cardinals. Both deals were inflated by unique forms of leverage that Jennings won't have access to.

Rodgers, meanwhile, is the reigning MVP and could expect a contract that comes close to the $18 million annual average the game's top quarterbacks -- including Tom Brady and Peyton Manning -- have received in recent deals. Ongoing negotiations between Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints could raise that level, but Brees has the leverage of an expired contract.

Regardless, you can do the math. Rodgers said in November that he wants his next contract to be his last. If the Packers want to sign Rodgers to a new, say, seven-year deal, the total value could surpass $125 million. Nothing crazy there when it comes to quarterback salaries.

Of the three, Matthews might be the most difficult situation to assess. His sack total fell from 13.5 in 2010 to six in 2011, but it's fair to consider him one of the NFL's better pass-rushers. The top available pass-rusher on the market this spring is defensive end/linebacker Mario Williams, who has reportedly agreed to a deal with the Buffalo Bills for $100 million over six years, with $50 million guaranteed.

So we can be conservative and suggest that the combined contracts of Jennings, Rodgers and Matthews could surpass $200 million. That should give you 200 million reasons why the Packers are laying low, at least at the moment.

We in the NFC North narrowly avoided disaster, I mean victory, in the 2011 vote to determine the cover of "Madden NFL 12." A vigorous voting campaign allowed Cleveland Browns running back Peyton Hillis to defeat Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, clearing the way for Rodgers to win the league's MVP and Hillis to fade into injury oblivion.

The "Madden Curse" is what you make it, of course, and that's why we're going to follow closely the cover vote for "Madden NFL 13." ESPN's SportsNation started the vote this week on its Facebook page, which after some time I realized you need to "like" in order to vote. A play-in round began between two players of each team, and the current 64 will be whittled to a 32-player field after March 21.

Here are the NFC North pairings. Remember, your team needs you.

• Chicago Bears: Jay Cutler vs. Matt Forte
• Detroit Lions: Matthew Stafford vs. Calvin Johnson
• Green Bay Packers: Clay Matthews vs. Aaron Rodgers
• Minnesota Vikings: Jared Allen vs. Percy Harvin

Our friends at Football Outsiders have put together a series previewing each NFL team's offseason needs, using their unique statistical analysis to support their assertions. Football Outsiders' work requires an Insiders subscription to view in full, a contradiction that always elicits a giggle from NFC East colleague Dan Graziano. But I'm authorized to provide you a snippet from each of our teams. Herewith:

Chicago Bears: Most everyone has the Bears pegged to pursue wide receivers in free agency and/or the draft, and Outsiders doesn't discount that possibility. But based on its analysis of the Bears' 2011 season, offensive tackle should be the Bears' top priority. Left tackle J'Marcus Webb allowed 10 sacks and was "among the worst [left tackles] in the league." The Bears' running game, meanwhile, was stuffed for a loss or no gain on 24.1 percent of its runs, a "catastrophic" figure blamed mostly on poor run blocking.

Detroit Lions: Like the Bears, Outsiders thinks the Lions need to upgrade their offensive line more than anything else. Based on Outsiders statistics, the Lions had the second-worst run-blocking offensive line in the NFL in 2011. Center Dominic Raiola and right guard Stephen Peterman were particularly to blame. Outsiders' analysis suggested that running backs Jahvid Best and Kevin Smith actually had above-average seasons based on the yardage available to them.

Green Bay Packers: We all know the Packers need more pass rush; Outsiders ranked them last in the NFL in its adjusted sack rate (ASR) in 2011. Outsiders' analysis suggests the pass rush would improve if the Packers focus their upgrade efforts along the defensive line, giving it better push up front but also opening up lanes for linebacker Clay Matthews.

Minnesota Vikings: Perhaps "the worst secondary in the league." That should tell you all you need to know. Here's one of many sobering statistics from 2011: Cornerback Cedric Griffin allowed an average of 10.5 yards on every pass thrown in his direction, and teams had a 38 percent success rate against him. Both totals were among the bottom five of all cornerbacks in Outsiders' statistical study.

No, I didn't forget. The Pro Bowl will be played Sunday night, starting at 7 p.m. ET, in Honolulu. I can't say I plan to watch every down, but I know there are many who will.

By my count, 12 players from the NFC North will participate. Below is the full list of players from our division who were named, either originally or as injury/Super Bowl replacements, over the past few weeks.

Chicago Bears

• LB Lance Briggs+
• RB Matt Forte
• ST Corey Graham
• DE Julius Peppers
• CB Charles Tillman
• LB Brian Urlacher+

Detroit Lions

• WR Calvin Johnson+

Green Bay Packers

• WR Greg Jennings
• FB John Kuhn+
• LB Clay Matthews*
• NT B.J. Raji
• QB Aaron Rodgers*
• C Scott Wells
• CB Charles Woodson*

Minnesota Vikings

• DE Jared Allen*
• LB Chad Greenway#

(Footnotes: *Starter; +Won't play; #Alternate/replacement)

The question has been asked before. Is Aaron Rodgers the next Peyton Manning? As it turns out, Rodgers isn't just making a run at Manning's place in NFL history. He also wants a piece of Manning's commercial success.

A third version of Rodgers' "Discount Double Check" commercials will appear this weekend. Formally known as "State of Imitation," the ads feature Rodgers as the straight man, first against actors and then Packers defensive lineman B.J. Raji. The latest version, embedded below, includes linebacker Clay Matthews.

Speaking this week on his ESPN 540 radio show, Rodgers said hosting "Saturday Night Live" -- which Manning did in 2007 -- is a possibility as well.

"I like to be selective," Rodgers said. "My time is important to me. These are fun to do but it is like a work day. You're going over lines, you're changing outfits, you're rehearsing. It's not like you’re just kind of hanging out. You want it to be good. I want it to be good. I want it to come out funny and to make sure that I'm representing myself well and the company I'm working with. So I want it to be really good.

"That being said, being compared to Peyton, that's a high compliment because I think he’s hilarious and I think his ads have been incredible. 'Saturday Night Live,' which has shown some interest in me doing it, his performance was incredible I thought on 'Saturday Night Live.' Tough to match."

Related: "State of Imitation 1" and "State of Imitation 2."

(Note: I hope everyone is good with pushing forward on our football discussion even as the Green Bay Packers are mourning the death of a family member. I considered holding off out of respect for those impacted by the death of Michael Philbin, but in the end I think we can be respectful while also providing an outlet for those who want to read about Sunday's divisional playoff game.)

Fear is a strong word. I don't think the Green Bay Packers fear the consequences of their historically porous pass defense. They won 15 games with it during the regular season, after all. I'm not even sure they're worried about it. They discovered and have implemented the antidote throughout the past four months.

But if you're someone who likes to conceive the worst-case scenario, you don't have to think too hard.

The Packers tripped only once this season, despite giving up an NFL-record 4,796 passing yards, mostly because they intercepted a league-leading 31 passes. In the playoffs, of course, the quarterbacks are better and less prone to mistakes. The Packers could face a Pro Bowl quarterback at every step between now and Super Bowl XLVI.

The bottom line: If an elite quarterback gashes them for yards but avoids the interceptions, he could knock the Packers out of the playoffs.

To be sure, there have been all kinds of attempts to poke holes in the Packers' near-perfect season. To me, this is the one instance with merit. The Packers' only loss this season came when Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Kyle Orton threw for 299 yards with no interceptions -- the only game this season the Packers didn't create at least one turnover.

First up this postseason will be the New York Giants' Eli Manning, who fell 67 yards shy of a 5,000-yard season and threw for 347 yards and three touchdowns in a Week 13 loss to the Packers. The final score was 38-35, and the Packers' scoring included linebacker Clay Matthews' interception return for a touchdown.

With the exception of a few pointed statements from cornerback Charles Woodson, the issue has mostly bubbled below the surface. But speaking late in the regular season, Woodson reiterated his concerns about the defense's aptitude for postseason football.

"Defensively we still have some problems," Woodson said after the Packers allowed 441 total yards in Week 16 against the Chicago Bears. "We just give up way too many things on a consistent basis, so we have a long way to go. … Just not playing good football at times. We've been consistently inconsistent throughout the season. It's on each man to get it done. Moving forward we have a great opportunity. … Everybody on this team, to the man, has to look within himself and just get the job done."

As the chart shows, the Packers allowed a 300-yard passer in nearly half their games this season. They intercepted the Carolina Panthers' Cam Newton three times to spoil a 432-yard day, for example, and held off the San Diego Chargers mostly because they intercepted Philip Rivers a career-high three times and returned two for touchdowns.

Manning, meanwhile, compiled eight 300-yard games during the regular season; the Giants were 4-4 in those games. He threw the seventh-most interceptions in the NFL, 16, but has thrown only one interception in the Giants' past three games.

Packers defensive coordinator Dom Capers has addressed the issue on almost a weekly basis this season. Speaking to Wisconsin reporters last week, Capers admitted that "we don't like" the yardage totals but added: "We've been able to win 15 games, and the reason for that, with our defensive stats the way they are, is the fact that we ended up No. 1 in the league in takeaways and No. 1 in the league in interceptions. That's something we obviously place a high priority on."

What has been the issue? As the second chart shows, the Packers' standard pass rush -- four or less rushers -- hasn't been nearly as effective as it was last season. They have given up an NFL-high 8.5 yards per attempt on those plays and managed only 11 sacks.

As a result, Capers has dramatically increased his blitz totals from last season. He elevated from a blitz on 32.8 percent of opponents' drop-backs in 2010 to 45.7 percent in 2011, the fourth-most in the NFL, according to ESPN Stats & Information. The only NFL team that affected a bigger blitz uptick this season was the Houston Texans, who changed defensive coordinators in the offseason.

I included the blitz percentages for each of the 300-yard games in the first chart; they blitzed 51.6 percent of the time on Orton's 299-yard day.

The blitz is the ultimate risk-reward proposition, and it brought the Packers 18 of their 29 sacks on the season and limited opponents to eight touchdown passes. (The Packers actually had more interceptions out of their standard rush, possibly a reflection of non-elite quarterbacks forcing the ball into coverage.)

Given his druthers, I doubt Capers wants to blitz as much as he has. In his session with reporters, he pointed to the Packers' Week 12 game against the Detroit Lions as "far more like [the way] we want to play." In that 27-15 victory, the Packers blitzed a season-low 22.4 percent of the time and limited Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford to 276 yards. None of Stafford's 32 completions went for longer than 23 yards.

Is the answer to pull back on the blitz Sunday against the Giants? In that Lions game, I'm guessing Capers considered it a higher priority to cover Detroit's slew of pass-catchers than to pressure Stafford. The Giants have a similar situation, especially now that receiver Mario Manningham is healthy and available to complement Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks. Perhaps, perhaps.

To be clear, this is not meant to ring alarm bells. I haven't been impressed with most of the attempts to poke holes in the Packers' success this season. 15-1 is 15-1, and it's clear the Packers know how to win. They are nine-point favorites in this game for good reason. All I want to do is note that a season-long issue was never resolved. The Packers have to hope it won't bite them now.

Police in Oshkosh, Wis., have confirmed the terrible news we learned Monday night: The body pulled from an icy river was in fact the son of Green Bay Packers offensive coordinator Joe Philbin. Michael Philbin was 21.

There isn't much I can add to Monday night's post. This is the cruelest of tragedies.

Packers players are off Tuesday and the team has no scheduled media availability. But in an appearance Tuesday morning on ESPN Radio , linebacker Clay Matthews said the team will dedicate Sunday's divisional playoff game against the New York Giants to the Philbins.

"The Packer organization is truly a family-first environment," Matthews said. "We feel for the Philbin family. I think it goes without saying that this game, and how we approach it, and how we play, will definitely be dedicated to him. Hopefully we do it the right way."

As Rob Demovsky of the Green Bay Press-Gazette noted, it's hard to imagine Philbin coaching this week. Coach Mike McCarthy said Monday the team had a contingency plan ready if that was the case. In a statement, general manager Ted Thompson asked the public to respect the Philbin family's privacy and added: "All of us in the Packers family share in their grief."