NFC North: Dan Orlovsky
AllenWatch: Record 'within reach'
Stacks of Sacks
Measuring Jared Allen's 2011 against the top two sack seasons in NFL history.
| Game | Strahan | Gastineau | Allen |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1 | 2 |
| 5 | 4 | 0 | 2 |
| 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 8 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1 |
| 9 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 11 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 13 | 0.5 | 0 | 3 |
| 14 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| 15 | 3.5 | 1 | 1 |
| 16 | 1 | 2 | -- |
| TOTAL | 22.5 | 22 | 18.5 |
Speaking Wednesday to reporters, Allen said the record is "absolutely within reach" and said he prayed for help this week. And then he turned to face several cameras as if he were addressing Bears quarterback Josh McCown directly.
"There is never an asterisk," Allen said. "A sack is a sack is a sack. I don't care how you get it. I'm just hoping to get some of that favorable treatment. You know what I'm saying? Hey, McCown: Feel free to trip and fall. I'll touch you. It doesn't have to be painful."
Sacks are admittedly fickle statistics that reward players equally when they touch a fallen quarterback or when they beat a double team and plant him into the ground. Allen once got credit for a sack when he was the nearest defender to then-Detroit Lions quarterback Dan Orlovsky, who ran out of the end zone for a safety. And Allen admitted Wednesday that he has looked back on this season and counted several instances where he earned a sack but wasn't credited with one for various scoring reasons.
That's why nothing should be ruled out for Sunday's game. Allen's career-high for sacks in a game is 4.5, set in 2009 against the Green Bay Packers.
"I'm excited," he said. "I'm going to go out there and give it my best. I'm going to give Strahan a run for his money and, if it happens, thank God it happened. If it doesn't, it's not going to take away from my season."
Meanwhile, one thing Allen is certain of is that he wants no part of reports that the Vikings might move to the 3-4 defense next season. Tom Pelissero of 1500ESPN.com made a case for it earlier this month, a change that would force Allen to move positions and almost certainly diminish his effectiveness.
For that reason, I have a hard time believing the Vikings will make that move in 2012. Allen was pretty blunt about it, saying: "That's not for me." He said that he's "going to end my career at defensive end" and suggested a move to outside linebacker would be more appropriate for a younger player.
"I think if I was halfway through my career, then that's something different," Allen said. "Maybe they can just leave me out at defensive end. That's where I kind of made my mark. I like where I play. I like that art form. There are some great matchup advantage to the 3-4. You take a guy like DeMarcus Ware [of the Dallas Cowboys], who could easily play with his hand down on every snap. And you put him in a position to be matched up with a running back one-on-one. Some great things happen. I'm just more of a traditionalist."
Double Coverage: 16-0 or 0-16 more likely?
US PresswireCurtis Painter's Colts, left, and Aaron Rodgers' Packers are on pace for historic seasons.We smelled a Double Coverage.
Is one of those zeros going to last? We got our AFC South and NFC North wizards together to talk it out.
Paul Kuharsky: For starters, Kevin, on behalf of those who follow the AFC South, we'd like to thank the NFC North representative for deeming us worthy to be a conversational partner. I mean, your teams are a combined 21-11 and mine are a measly 12-22. You are indeed very gracious.
Kevin Seifert: No problem, Paul. As the blogger for the NFL's most dominant division, I thought it would be interesting to see how the other half lives. Maybe those of us in the Black and Blue could learn something. Perhaps the untold value of mediocrity?
PK: More graciousness. The Colts and Jaguars thank you for the compliment. They haven’t been viewed as even mediocre in some time.
OK, we’re here to discuss what’s more likely, the Colts going winless or the Packers going undefeated. I think finishing a 16-game season with a zero in either the W or L column is equally hard. Over in the AFC South, we’ve actually seen the flip side of this. The 2009 Colts had a shot at an undefeated regular season, and they took their foot off the gas, pretty much sacrificing the final two games of the season in the name of resting and preserving people.
It was their prerogative of course. They said it wasn’t about going undefeated, it was about winning it all. I thought they were stubborn, acting as if they couldn’t conceivably do both and suggesting there would be no extra meaning to it. When they lost the Super Bowl to the Saints, it was all moot. It’s remarkable that just two seasons later, we’re talking about an 0-9 Colts team with a shot to go winless. Maybe karma is in play.
KS: There is no doubt that winning all 16 regular season games is a difficult task and requires some luck.
But I think it's harder to go 0-16, and I speak from experience.
You forget, Paul, that three years ago I covered a team that didn't win a game all year. The 2008 Detroit Lions were a terrible team, hitting rock bottom with poor drafts and mismanagement, but they proved how hard you have to work to lose 16 games.
Just one example: The margin of victory in the Lions' 12-10 loss at the Minnesota Vikings that year was a safety. It occurred when quarterback Dan Orlovsky forgot where he was on the field and ran out of the end zone -- by a solid three yards -- while attempting to elude a pass rush. It was the easiest sack of defensive end Jared Allen's life.
Even someone like you, who isn't averse to embarrassing yourself on camera for your blog readers, could probably have avoided a safety on that play.
The point is that even a historically bad team is liable to get its chances to win a game. A really good team has a better chance of limiting its chances of losing. Hopefully that makes sense to your AFC South people.
PK: I didn’t forget, Chief, I was setting you up. And I know Mr. Orlovsky personally, as he’s been with the Texans and is now on the very Colts team we are talking about. Imagine, he and linebacker Ernie Sims could be part of two winless teams in a four-season span. That’s not a very good line on the old resume.
Though they’ve given me little reason to believe it, I still think the Colts win a game “by accident” in their final seven. Many people seem to think the big chance comes with Jacksonville coming to town this weekend. But apparently those people have not seen the Jaguars’ defense, which is capable of squashing the Colts. Dwight Freeney might need to score for Indy to win.
I look through what the Colts have left after the Jags and I can’t pick one to win -- Carolina, at New England, at Baltimore, Tennessee, Houston and at Jacksonville. Those games at New England and Baltimore were expected to be monster AFC contests when the schedule came out. Now they might be breathers for the Patriots and Ravens.
I love the Packers, but they have a far more difficult road to a singular season -- they could lose on Thanksgiving at Detroit, they could lose a week later on the road against the Giants. They could lose on Christmas to Chicago or on New Year’s to the Lions, though it’s awfully nice that those last two are at home.
KS: They also could have lost last week to the San Diego Chargers, or in Week 1 if Mark Ingram had gotten the New Orleans Saints one more yard or in Week 3 if Cam Newton had converted one more fourth down for the Carolina Panthers. The point is the Packers have demonstrated to everyone watching that they have the tools and guile to pull out victories of all shapes and sizes and regardless of the circumstances.
There has been a fair amount of consternation about their pass defense, and even Charles Woodson has spoken out about it. They've been giving up gobs of yards all season, but to this point, they've minimized the impact by grabbing an NFL-high 16 interceptions.
The concern is that the Packers could be done in by a more efficient and careful quarterback than the ones they've played so far. The list of remaining quarterbacks on their schedule includes these names: Christian Ponder, Josh Freeman, Matthew Stafford (twice), Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, Matt Cassel and Jay Cutler.
So if the Packers don't do anything to improve their pass defense, that leaves the Lions and Giants as probably the best candidates to beat them. That assumes, of course, that Stafford and/or Manning not only play mistake-free but also match Aaron Rodgers in a score-fest. The Packers are averaging 34.4 points per game.
PK: I think the Colts' best stretch of play might actually be behind them. They nearly found a way to beat Pittsburgh in Week 3 but lost by 3, they were in it late in Tampa Bay on a Monday night but lost by a touchdown, they were in range of Kansas City but lost by four.
Every week is a new deal. We just saw the Dolphins emerge from a similar quagmire and win in Kansas City. The Colts could stumble into a game where things align for them. My gut still says they will, because 0-16 is so hard.
So my verdict: The Colts are more likely to go 0-16 than the Packers are to go 16-0. But I don’t think we’re seeing either.
You?
KS: We can agree on that: Neither is happening. But on the relative scale, I like the chances of Rodgers throwing a touchdown pass to Greg Jennings in Week 17 and sealing a perfect season more than the chances of Dan Orlovsky running out of the back of the end zone again.
Just a guess.
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I’m quite interested to see what comes of coach Jim Schwartz’s threat to make changes after this debacle. Schwartz told reporters it was time to “make a stand” and the team’s performance was “unacceptable.” But what options does he have? The Lions already were starting their backup quarterback because of Matthew Stafford's shoulder injury. Schwartz has routinely shaken up the starting lineup this season, and his options are limited with 15 players on injured reserve. The next level is pretty dramatic: Releasing underperformers and/or firing coaches. Could one of both of those happen this week? That would certainly be a step toward the accountability Schwartz is looking for. - Tailback Kevin Smith has a “significant” knee injury and will miss the rest of the season. But 2009 should be the least of the Lions’ concerns. If it’s a torn anterior cruciate ligament, Smith will join tight end Brandon Pettigrew as a key Lions player who will have to exceed normal rehabilitation timetables to be ready for training camp next summer. Smith finished the season with 747 yards on 217 carries, a 3.4-yard average per carry. That middling performance, combined with the injury, probably means the Lions should add “starting tailback” to their offseason list of needs.
- Sunday’s game could have been worse. Don’t forget that Ravens running back Ray Rice fumbled the ball out of the end zone in the first quarter. Had Baltimore scored and the rest of the game continued in the same fashion, it would have been the largest margin of defeat in Lions history. As it was, the 45-point loss ranked third in Detroit’s inglorious record book.
And here is one question I’m still asking:
Have the Lions improved one iota from last season’s 0-16 team? The records show they have. The Lions are 2-11 at this point as opposed to the 0-13 mark they had last year at this time. But we all know it took some bizarre plays for the Lions to go winless in 2008; Dan Orlovsky's safety in the Metrodome comes to mind. Last year’s team had injury problems as well. Stafford’s competitiveness gives the Lions something to look forward to, and hope is always good. Otherwise, however, I think you’d be hard-pressed to argue this team has made many tangible strides.
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A look at the key loss and his replacement for each team in the division:
Who's out: John Tait, right tackle (Retired unexpectedly)
Who's in: Chris Williams (2008 first-round draft pick)
Outlook: The Bears originally expected Williams to start at left tackle, and he still projects there in the long-term. But the fallout from Tait's unexpected retirement, as well as the free agent departure of John St. Clair, left Chicago scrambling.
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As it turned out, veteran free agent Orlando Pace was the best option. Rather than shifting Pace out of his longtime spot on the left side, the Bears decided to let Williams break into the NFL at what is generally considered a less challenging position.
This seems to be a reasonable arrangement and a good response to Tait's decision. All things equal, new quarterback Jay Cutler would surely prefer backside protection from Pace rather than an untested player. Williams will get a chance to learn the NFL game without that pressure.
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Who's out: Jon Kitna/Dan Orlovsky, quarterbacks (Traded to Dallas/Departed via free agency)
Who's in: Daunte Culpepper/Matthew Stafford, (Culpepper restructured his contract, Stafford was the No. 1 overall pick of the draft)
Outlook: The Lions didn't lose anyone they had hoped to retain, but the quarterback transition is the biggest item on their agenda this summer.
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his career. The pieces are in place for him to have at least short-term success, most notably offensive coordinator Scott Linehan and receiver Calvin Johnson.
Unless Stafford proves to be the rarest of talents, it's likely Culpepper will open the season as the Lions' starter. If he can achieve modest success, he will give Stafford the long-term gift of a full season of development on the bench.
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Who's out: Mark Tauscher, right tackle (Currently a free agent as he rehabilitates a torn anterior cruciate ligament)
Who's in: Allen Barbre/Breno Giacomini/T.J. Lang (A training camp competition is expected.)
Outlook: The Packers almost certainly would have brought back Tauscher were it not for the injury, and it's always possible he could return at midseason if and when he fully recovers. Until then, however, the Packers will have to determine if anyone on their current depth chart can handle the job.
Barbre will get the first chance. He's seen reserve action in 15 games over the past two seasons, mostly at guard, but has a mean streak that could serve him well in a primary run-blocking position of the offensive line. Some consider Lang, a fourth-round pick in 2009, a potential long-term answer.
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Who's out: Matt Birk, center (Signed with Baltimore as free agent)
Who's in: John Sullivan (Sixth-round pick, 2008)
Outlook: The Vikings made a late run at trying to sign Birk but all along seemed prepared to pass the torch to Sullivan, a Notre Dame project who was one of the first players to report for offseason training this winter.
Sullivan doesn't have Birk's size, and it will be interesting to see if he can keep some of the game's top defensive tackles out of the Vikings' backfield. But from a mental standpoint, no one expects any difficulty with Sullivan's line calls or his capacity to otherwise handle the position.
Black and Blue all over: Grossman's challenge
Those of you who plan to follow Rex Grossman's progress in Houston should check out this story from Megan Manfull of the Houston Chronicle. The ex-Chicago quarterback threw three interceptions in his first practice with the team Monday.
Manfull's story paints a relatively bleak picture for Grossman's immediate future. He's competing for the No. 3 quarterback spot on a team that hasn't had one for two years. That could change with the departure of reliable backup Sage Rosenfels, but for now Matt Schaub is the starter and former Detroit quarterback Dan Orlovsky is No. 2.
Here's what Texans coach Gary Kubiak said of Grossman's chances for making the team:
"After what I've been through the last two years, [three quarterbacks] might be the way I would lean today. But we have a long way to go, a lot of players to evaluate. And if I'm going to keep them, I'm going to keep them because they all can play. I'm not just going to keep them just so I have three bodies."
Most teams tap a young, developmental-type player at No. 3 rather than a veteran. But Grossman admitted he didn't have much choice but to accept Houston's offer.
Grossman: "There wasn't a whole lot of teams to choose from, to be honest. But I'm excited to be here, and I'm going to work as hard as I can to get back on top."
Continuing around the NFC North:
- Green Bay knocked out three contracts for its draft class Tuesday but hasn't started negotiations for its pair of first-round picks, writes Tom Pelissero of the Green Bay Press-Gazette.
- Mike Vandermause of the Press-Gazette paraphrases a call he received from a Packers fan about the possibility of quarterback Brett Favre signing with Minnesota. "The disillusioned caller used words like disgusting, selfish and scumbag to describe Favre. The man said he gave his undying support to Favre for 16 years, and in return, the quarterback 'spits in our face.'"
- The Favre-Vikings courtship should be concluded -- one way or the other -- by the last week of July, writes Judd Zulgad of the Star Tribune.
- Vikings linebacker Ben Leber tells Zulgad he was struck by Favre's use of the world "we" during a television interview Monday night. Leber: "That really stuck in my mind because he's already including himself."
- Free-agent defensive lineman Kevin Carter has visited Detroit but isn't close to making a decision about 2009, writes Nicholas J. Cotsonika of the Detroit Free Press.
- Lions coach Jim Schwartz might want to move training camp away from the team's practice facility in 2010, according to Doug Guthrie and John Clayton of the Detroit News. One possibility is Grand Valley State University in Allendale, Mich.
- Former Lions receiver Charles Rogers is still hoping to return to the NFL, according to Hugh Bernreuter of Mlive.com. Rogers: "There's nothing concrete [about the NFL], just speculative. But if a team gives me a tryout, I know I'm going to be ready. I'm in better shape now than I was before."
Black and Blue all over: Grossman's struggle
It was a real struggle for former Chicago quarterback Rex Grossman to get a job this offseason. In the end, this was the best he could do: Underdog competition for Houston's backup role.
Grossman has agreed to a one-year contract with Houston worth the veteran's minimum of $620,000, according to John McClain of the Houston Chronicle. But as my AFC South colleague Paul Kuharsky points out, the Texans paid free agent Dan Orlovsky too much money (three years, $8.5 million) to not make him the primary backup for starter Matt Schaub.
So, yes, Grossman likely will be the No. 3 quarterback in Houston in 2009, if he makes the team. But that appeared to be his best option after a quiet foray into the free-agent market.
Like many quarterbacks who were on the market, Grossman has endured some struggles in his past. But many NFL teams didn't foresee him overcoming those issues in a fresh environment. That's quite a fall for a player who started the Super Bowl three years ago.
Continuing around the NFC North:
- Bears officials have a meeting scheduled for next week with representatives of Lewis University in Romeoville, where they might relocate their future training camps. Brad Biggs of the Chicago Sun-Times reports.
- Sid Hartman of the Star Tribune reports Minnesota's ticket sales are down 10-15 percent off last year's numbers. Would the addition of quarterback Brett Favre change that?
- Vikings tight end Visanthe Shiancoe referred to the Favre saga as "Favre-a-palooza." Chip Scoggins of the Star Tribune has more player reaction.
- Former Vikings coach Mike Tice on his lower public profile as an assistant in Jacksonville: "I haven't done an interview in a couple of years. There was a time in my career when I cared about being in the paper all the time. Now there are other people who are at that point in their careers. God bless them. I was that guy once. Now I just want to win." Vito Stellino of the Jacksonville Times-Union has the story.
- In a chat on the Green Bay Press-Gazette's Web site, Mike Vandermause predicts the Packers will win the NFC North with a 10-6 record.
- To fight their own ticket-sales woes, the Lions have invited 6,000 fans to their June 24 minicamp session, according to Nicholas J. Cotsonika of the Detroit Free Press.
- Lions linebacker Alex Lewis should never have been considered a starting-caliber player, writes Tom Kowalski of Mlive.com.
DANA POINT, Calif. -- Defensive lineman Shaun Cody's contract agreement with Houston closes the book on Detroit's disastrous 2005 draft.
Cody was the Lions' second-round pick that season and went on to play in 53 games over the next four seasons, compiling 91 tackles and 1.5 sacks. He and quarterback Dan Orlovsky were the last members of the draft class to depart.
Lions officials have said they want to get bigger and stronger along the defensive line and have signed veteran Grady Jackson to start at nose tackle. They have also hosted Boston College defensive tackle B.J. Raji on a visit.
For those interested, below is the Lions' full 2005 draft class. They were not alone. As we noted earlier this month, only four members from that class remain with their original team throughout the entire NFC North.
Round 1: USC receiver Mike Williams
Round 2: USC defensive end Shaun Cody
Round 3: Stanford defensive back Stanley Wilson
Round 5: Connecticut quarterback Dan Orlovsky
Round 6: Oregon State defensive end Bill Swancutt
Round 6: Marshall linebacker Johnathan Goddard
Daily mailbag: The Bears and Leftwich
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Sean of St. Paul is one of several readers who is surprised by; (A) Chicago's apparent lack of interest in pursuing a veteran backup quarterback and; (B) that Byron Leftwich hasn't received any interest -- from the Bears or elsewhere:
I think Byron Leftwich is a good quarterback with lots of years left in him. While he's had some ups and downs, he would be a quality quarterback to have on any team. Why haven't the Bears pursued him at this point?
It's surprising to see Leftwich sitting idle while the likes of Dan Orlovsky, Ryan Fitzpatrick, J.T. O'Sullivan and others have signed new contracts. (And Leftwich is not the only one: See the charts for this month's transactions and non-transactions.)
But when you look at it, there are at least three distinct market timings for free agent quarterbacks.
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The first is just as free agency begins, when teams looking for a new starter scramble for the one or two top-tier quarterbacks available. (See: Matt Cassel.) Then there is a market for players who are strictly backups and would not challenge the team's established starter. (See: Orlovsky, Fitzpatrick and O'Sullivan.)
Then it starts getting interesting. The quarterbacks remaining on the market now must decide how long they're willing to wait. Typically, the market expands a bit late in the spring and into the summer when a handful of teams' plans change -- or are changed. Some grow dissatisfied with their depth chart after offseason workouts. Others experience an injury early in training camp or in the preseason.
Leftwich has bounced around since Jacksonville released him, but he adjusted quickly to Pittsburgh's system after joining the Steelers late in training camp last year. Waiting until the summer can be nerve-wracking, but ultimately it can put the player in better position either to get on the field or otherwise play a significant role in the upcoming season.
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I don't have an explanation for why no team has pursued Leftwich to this point. Are they concerned he won't view himself as a compliant backup in the way Orlovsky, Fitzpatrick and others would? Possibly. It also should be noted that the Steelers haven't re-signed the other candidate to back up Ben Roethlisberger in 2009, Charlie Batch. At this point, Leftwich's most fruitful route might be patience.
As for the Bears, coach Lovie Smith said last month that he felt comfortable entering training camp with Caleb Hanie and Brett Basanez competing for the No. 2 job behind Kyle Orton. Smith might have a different opinion after minicamp next week, or possibly after the April draft. But as long as there is a glut of free agents available, there isn't a huge urgency for the Bears to get a veteran backup onto their roster.
The only downside arises in a diminished span of offseason work. A quarterback who joins his team after minicamp and Organized Training Activities faces a steeper learning curve when training camp opens. But is that challenge worth rushing into a contract agreement for either side? I don't think so.
I'm baaaaaaaack. Whether you noticed I was away from the blog is another question. Thanks to those who filled in some posts while I was attending a lovely -- and warm -- wedding south of the border.
With internet access restored, I've spent some of Monday's wee hours trying to catch up on the free-agent happenings around the NFC North. It seems that Minnesota wants another big-time receiver, Green Bay is patiently waiting for the right price and Chicago's top target was an offensive lineman who can play tackle or guard. Oh, and Detroit reportedly was involved in trade discussions that would have netted Denver quarterback Jay Cutler while also signing a starting-caliber receiver and acquiring two cornerbacks.
That's what I gleaned in a nutshell, and I'll return later Monday with some more detailed thoughts on those topics. For now, let's get ourselves back to even and catch up on the Black and Blue's latest news, starting with a holding pattern in Minnesota for free agent receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh:
- Judd Zulgad and Chip Scoggins of the Star Tribune report Houshmandzadeh met with Vikings officials for nearly six hours Sunday at the team's facility. But as of Sunday evening, agent Kenard McGuire said no deal had been reached. The Vikings are competing with Cincinnati and Seattle for Houshmandzadeh's services.
- Sean Jensen of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reviews some of the factors that could be complicating the Houshmandzadeh negotiations. Among them: Would the Vikings offer more than they gave current No. 1 receiver Bernard Berrian, who received $16 million guaranteed last year?
- Lions defensive end Cliff Avril said he is praying for teammate Corey Smith, who is among four passengers missing from a boat in the Gulf of Mexico. Here is a report from the Detroit Free Press.
- Former Lions quarterback Dan Orlovsky signed with Houston on Sunday, where he will be the clear backup to starter Matt Schaub. The Lions offered Orlovsky a chance to compete for their starting job, but Orlovsky was wary of his chances, according to John Niyo of the Detroit News.
Green Bay had hoped to host free-agent defensive end Chris Canty on a visit, but Canty signed Sunday night with the New York Giants. According to Pete Dougherty of the Green Bay Press-Gazette, Packers general manager Ted Thompson wouldn't commit to a ballpark offer prior to scheduling a visit.- The Packers also passed on pursuing defensive tackle Colin Cole, who got $6 million to sign with Seattle. After losing out on Cole and Canty, Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports the Packers will shift gears and pursue San Diego defensive end Igor Olshansky.
- Brad Biggs of the Chicago Sun-Times casts serious doubt on the possibility of the Bears acquiring Cutler.
- Former Minnesota safety Darren Sharper told Vaughn McClure of the Chicago Tribune that the Bears have expressed interest in signing him. New Orleans seems the likeliest target for Sharper.
Black and Blue all over: No stadium momentum
The government entity that owns the Metrodome testified Monday at the Minnesota state legislature on behalf of constructing a new Vikings stadium. But state leaders displayed with little support, according to Mike Kaszuba of the Star Tribune.
Nothing that happened Monday suggested the Vikings could get approval for public funding during the 2009 session, a result that would put further pressure on the looming 2011 expiration of their current lease. 
The Metropolitan Sports Facilities Commission suggested that the project could generate $734 million in construction spending and create 13,400 jobs, acting as its own stimulus to the local economy. The Vikings' plan calls for them to contribute about $250 million and get about $700 million in public funding for the project.
Rep. Frank Hornstein of Minneapolis, whose colleagues are dealing with a $4.8 billion state budget shortfall, reacted this way:
"To come in with a two-thirds publicly funded proposal for a brand new stadium here this session would appear to be a nonstarter."
This might be the one and only time state legislators hear testimony on this issue during the 2009 session. Assuming the Vikings don't get approval, they'll have 30 games -- including preseason -- left on their lease.
Continuing around the NFC North:
- ESPN analyst Tim Hasselbeck thinks Sage Rosenfels would beat out Tarvaris Jackson in an open competition for the Vikings' starting job. Hasselbeck told Judd Zulgad of the Star Tribune that he doesn't think Jackson "is a top-32 quarterback in the NFL" and added: "I'm not so sure he's a top-42 quarterback in the NFL."
- The Vikings are continuing to negotiate with center Matt Birk, who is scheduled to become a free agent at the end of the week, according to Zulgad and Chip Scoggins.
- Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy believes the switch to a 3-4 will help his special teams as well, according to Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
- David Haugh of the Chicago Tribune believes Bears general manager Jerry Angelo has turned up the heat on coach Lovie Smith by suggesting that the key to more success in 2009 is an improved coaching staff -- and not the prospects of a roster overhaul.
- Brad Biggs of the Chicago Sun-Times suggests New England safety Eugene Wilson as a possible replacement for departing starter Mike Brown.
- Detroit quarterback Dan Orlovsky says he will test free agency rather than immediately accept an offer from the Lions, according to John Niyo of the Detroit News.
Quarterback far from settled in Detroit
Here is what we can tell you in the wake of Tuesday's revelation that Detroit quarterback Daunte Culpepper has renegotiated his contract: Culpepper is in the mix to start for the Lions in 2009.
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Actually, that's the term Lions president Tom Lewand used Tuesday during a meeting with Detroit-area reporters. Culpepper has not been given the team's starting job, and in fact Lewand said the team is also negotiating to bring back Dan Orlovsky -- a pending free agent who started seven games in 2008.
During the interview session, Lions coach Jim Schwartz didn't sound anywhere close to deciding on a starter:
"We want to keep all options open and a lot of that depends on free agency, a lot of it depends on the draft and those kinds of things. I think you don't want to shut any door before it's time, so to speak."
It's possible that Culpepper agreed to change the timing of a roster bonus he was originally due to collect Feb. 27. If that's the case, the Lions will have bought more time to decide the direction of the position before giving him a multimillion dollar payout. (The original bonus was worth $2.5 million.)
This gives Culpepper a chance to earn a job -- and likely a future financial payout from the Lions' new regime. It doesn't mean the Lions wouldn't also draft a quarterback in April, and clearly it hasn't stopped them from pursuing at least one other veteran (Orlovsky). About the only conclusion you can reach is that Jon Kitna, himself due a relatively modest bonus later this month, almost certainly will be released or traded in the next two weeks.
Only the very best players from an 0-16 team should be guaranteed a starting job the following season. None of the Lions' 2008 quarterbacks fall into that category, so the team is doing what it should: maximizing its options, minimizing risk and moving forward.
It's interesting -- at least to me -- that you can rule out only one NFC North team as a potential landing place for pending free agent quarterback Jeff Garcia, who officially learned over the weekend that he won't be returning to Tampa Bay in 2009.
It's relatively safe to assume that Green Bay, with Aaron Rodgers locked in as the starter, won't make a run at Garcia. But you could make an argument that the remainder of the Black and Blue, to varying degrees, could all benefit from signing a quarterback who has experienced immediate success in his two most recent stops.
Take a look at what Garcia did in those instances. In both cases, Garcia guided his team into the playoffs:
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Jeff Garcia has been told by the Buccaneers that he won't be retained for a third season. Here is a look at the quarterback's first year in his previous two NFL stops: Now let's consider Garcia's NFC North possibilities, building up to the situation that makes the most sense from both sides:
DETROIT LIONS
Why it might work: The Lions have a logjam of potential "bridge starters" who could hold space for a young quarterback the team could acquire as early this spring. But new coach Jim Schwartz might want to make a clean break from the past, which would eliminate Daunte Culpepper, Dan Orlovsky, Drew Stanton and even Jon Kitna from consideration. All things equal, you might choose Garcia over each of those candidates regardless.
Why it won't happen: Garcia already has had one disastrous experience in Detroit. He is known primarily for his success in the West Coast offense, but new coordinator Scott Linehan is more closely associated with the "three-digit" downfield passing style. Garcia isn't likely to want to finish his career in a rebuilding situation.
Chances: Unlikely
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| NFL.com Video | |
| The best moments from Jeff Garcia in 2008. |
CHICAGO BEARS
Why it might work: The Bears aren't committed to starter Kyle Orton beyond the 2009 season, and general manager Jerry Angelo has made the position his highest priority. That makes it hard to believe the Bears will enter 2009 without at least an experienced backup for Orton; Garcia might be the best candidate available. The Bears don't run a West Coast offense per se, but Garcia would quickly develop relationships with the team's veterans.
Why it won't happen: Garcia might be more of a challenge than the Bears want to pose for Orton. If they're trying to coax Orton to long-term success, the Bears are best off with a backup who can fill in if Orton falters. That's different than a backup who can beat him out on merit in training camp. Garcia also does nothing to solve the longer-term quarterback issue should Orton fail.
Chances: Possible
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Why it might work: The Vikings run the type of West Coast offense Garcia has excelled in. He has a quick release, is mobile and has thrown only 14 interceptions in the past three seasons. He could assume the starting job right away and give Tarvaris Jackson more time to develop. Garcia should be attracted to the Vikings' offensive weapons, from receiver Bernard Berrian to tight end Visanthe Shiancoe to tailback Adrian Peterson.
Why it won't happen: Coach Brad Childress has been loyal to Jackson and will give him every opportunity to succeed. The Vikings had a chance to sign Garcia two years ago and passed. If Garcia does his homework, he'll find out that at least two veteran quarterbacks -- Brad Johnson and Gus Frerotte -- ended their seasons disenchanted with their roles.
Chances: Possible going on intriguing
Posted by ESPN.com's Kevin Seifert
The top issues facing each team in the division:
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| Wesley Hitt/Getty Images | |
| Lovie Smith has some work to do with his defense. |
Primary issue: The Bears gave up an average of 241.2 passing yards per game in 2008, third-worst in the NFL. The run defense ranked No. 5 overall, but coach Lovie Smith must find a way to re-balance a once-proud group.
Smith, however, isn't likely to get help from a personnel infusion this offseason. A series of recently-signed contract extensions means the Bears must largely rely on existing players to improve. Linebackers Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs, cornerbacks Charles Tillman and Nate Vasher, and defensive tackle Tommie Harris are all in the midst of long-term deals.
If players remain static, that leaves two avenues for adjustment: Scheme and coaching.
Solution: Smith already has overhauled his defensive coaching staff and seems poised to impose some level of scheme change himself by calling the game-day defensive signals himself. The Bears could also help themselves at two positions in the draft: Defensive end and safety.
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Secondary issue: Ron Turner's offense could use more explosion, both from the backfield and at the wide receiver position. In 2008, there was perhaps one player -- receiver Devin Hester -- who was a threat to score every time he touched the ball.
As a team, the Bears had 35 pass plays of more than 20 yards and three of more than 40. Those figures ranked No. 26 and No. 29, respectively, in the NFL.
Solution: The receiver position seems an obvious target in free agency. Turner also would be wise to follow up on his plan to get scatback Garrett Wolfe more involved in the offense.
Primary issue: The Lions finished 2008 with the NFL's 30th-ranked rush offense and 32nd-ranked rush defense. Valuing quickness over size, the Lions got pushed all over the field on both sides of the ball and need to overhaul both lines.
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| Derick Hingle/Icon SMI | |
| Alabama's Andre Smith could fit in nicely with the Lions. |
This is not a one-year project, and instead takes several good drafts, along with at least some isolated free-agent acquisitions, to accomplish. Conservatively, the Lions need to find at least two guards, two defensive tackles and an eventual successor for center Dominic Raiola.
Some fans probably would like to see left tackle Jeff Backus replaced, and many aren't sold on young right tackle Gosder Cherilus. But the interiors of Detroit's lines are the most pressing issues.
Solution: The Lions must take a lineman with at least one, if not both, of their No. 1 picks. Some believe Alabama left tackle Andre Smith could be the best player in the draft. Left tackle isn't the Lions' top need, but Smith could set a tone for the entire offensive line.
Secondary issue: The Lions have three veteran quarterbacks on their roster: Drew Stanton, Daunte Culpepper and Jon Kitna. They have the opportunity to re-sign Dan Orlovsky. None of those players, however, are long-term answers at the position.
New coach Jim Schwartz joked last month that it was time to replace former quarterback Bobby Layne, who last played for the Lions 51 years ago. The Lions need a permanent answer at the game's most important position.
Solution: The Lions will consider whether to take Georgia quarterback Matthew Stafford with the No. 1 overall pick. That's a possibility. Here's another: Making Culpepper or Orlovsky a bridge starter and selecting a developmental quarterback later
in the draft.
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| David Stluka/Getty Images | |
| In the Packers' new 3-4 scheme, Aaron Kampman will move to outside linebacker. |
Primary issue: The Packers believe their personnel is flexible enough to absorb a pending shift to a 3-4 defensive scheme, but it's inevitable that some positions are going to turn over.
Aaron Kampman's shift to linebacker means the Packers need a new defensive end. And there's no guarantee that the two primary outside linebackers on the roster, Brandon Chillar and Brady Poppinga, will be able to handle the new scheme.
Unfortunately for them, the Packers will have to make those decisions months before training camp begins. Now is the time when the best alternatives are available.
Solution: General manager Ted Thompson needs to step out of his free agency shell and sign at least one linebacker and one defensive end to protect himself this summer. Those positions should also be a focus of the April draft.
Secondary issue: The offensive line got old in a hurry last season, and it's possible the Packers will have to replace at least one, if not both, of their tackles. Right tackle Mark Tauscher is headed to free agency while recovering from a torn ACL, a bad situation for both sides. And left tackle Chad Clifton struggled with both knees last season and has one year left on his contract.
The Packers aren't exactly set at guard, either. They rotated Daryn Colledge, Jason Spitz and Josh Sitton through the position last year, but it's possible that Colledge could figure as a replacement for one of the tackles.
Solution: Colledge could replace Tauscher at right tackle. It's also likely that Thompson will select multiple linemen in the draft.
Primary issue: For three years, the Vikings have been looking for the long-term successor to Culpepper. Coach Brad Childress has given Tarvaris Jackson every opportunity to claim that position, and you better believe that Childress would love for Jackson to do that once and for all in 2009.
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| Rick Scuteri/US PRESSWIRE | |
| The Vikings need Tarvaris Jackson to solidify himself as the starting quarterback. |
The question becomes the extent to which the Vikings will protect themselves against the possibility that Jackson can't do it. Gus Frerotte isn't likely to return, so at the very least the Vikings will have to find a new veteran backup for Jackson.
Many fans are hoping that second-year player John David Booty can challenge Jackson for the job, but it's unlikely that will happen in 2009.
Solution: The Vikings have a veteran team that seems primed for a deep playoff run, but they need to elevate their quarterback play one way or the other. Signing the best free agent available, likely to be Jeff Garcia, is probably their best option.
Secondary issue: The Ryan Cook experiment could end for several reasons, leaving the Vikings in need of a right tackle. Cook could replace veteran Matt Birk at center, or he simply could be benched after nearly three inconsistent seasons as a starter.
Cook played center in college at New Mexico and never has looked entirely comfortable as a right tackle.
Solution: There are no internal replacements. This position will have to come from outside the organization. Childress has long been a fan of Philadelphia's Jon Runyan, a free agent this spring, but that would be a short-term decision.
Wrapping up our early offseason analysis of the NFC North:
Detroit Lions offseason analysis
- 2008 record: 0-16
- Coaching changes: Rod Marinelli fired and replaced by Jim Schwartz. Gunther Cunningham is the new defensive coordinator. Scott Linehan will be the new offensive coordinator. The team has announced no other additions, and the fate of much of Marinelli's former staff has yet to be decided.
- Salary cap status: $26.8 million before end-of-year adjustments and credits.
- Exclusive rights free agent: Defensive back Ramzee Robinson
- Key unrestricted free agents: Running back Aveion Cason, defensive lineman Shaun Cody, receiver Keary Colbert, offensive lineman George Foster, placekicker Jason Hanson, running back Rudi Johnson, linebacker Paris Lenon, receiver Shaun McDonald, linebacker Ryan Nece, fullback Moran Norris, quarterback Dan Orlovsky, guard Stephen Peterman.
- Free agent comment: Hanson is the Lions' biggest decision among the free agent group. There have been reports that he is bound by a grandfathered franchise tag. The Lions have not confirmed that. But in either event, they will have to decide whether to pay him a premium salary after a lights-out 2008 season. The sheer number of free agents the Lions have speaks to the roster overhaul they could effect if desired.
- Three biggest needs: (1) Size in the interior defensive line; (2) A playmaking linebacker; (3) Upgrade at both guard positions.
So the Lions are two games away from infamy. Exactly 120 minutes of football time separate them from a perfectly awful 0-16 season. It's one record no NFL team wants to reach, and we're here to help.
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As part of ESPN.com's Thursday Hot Read on the topic, we hereby offer 16 suggestions for fixing the Lions:
1. Dispatch the denial. Stop counting the near-misses and lamenting the "few plays here and there." Admit you're broken in a fundamental way. With few exceptions, the NFL's competitive model puts most teams relatively close to one another. There's a reason you hear so much about "any given Sunday." For one team to start 0-14, and lose 21 of its past 22 games, indicates an overhaul -- not a tweak -- is necessary.
2. Start at the top. No one knows exactly how the Lions' ownership runs the team. But we got a glimpse this season when vice chairman Bill Ford Jr. publicly campaigned for the firing of president/general manager Matt Millen. Two days later, chairman William Clay Ford did the deed. All indications are that the elder Ford continues to wield final say, but it's time for Ford Jr. -- whose judgment on Millen far surpassed his father's -- to take over.
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| Leon Halip/US Presswire | |
| Rod Marinelli has a 10-36 record in his three seasons in Detroit. |
3. Put Rod Marinelli out of his misery. Marinelli might be a good football coach, but no one can lose so many games in a such a short period while maintaining credibility inside or outside the organization. I know, Marinelli hasn't been blessed with the NFL's best personnel. But it's hard to convince anyone you're moving forward with a coach who has lost 36 of 46 games over a three-year tenure.
4. Before hiring the next head coach, settle on a front-office structure that provides checks and balances to avoid a repeat of the unchallenged mistakes Millen routinely made. Most people assume that chief operating officer Tom Lewand will retain a prominent business role, which is fine. On the football side, however, the Lions need a general manager and coach tandem that understands each other's philosophies and will consider contradictory thoughts. The current model is in Atlanta, where general manager Thomas Dimitroff and coach Mike Smith are said to work exceptionally well together.
5. Thank interim general manager Martin Mayhew for his eye-opening work after replacing Millen. And then send him on his way. This is in no way a comment on Mayhew, who in other circumstances would make a fine general manager for the Lions. But remember our general premise: This is not an organization that needs tweaking. It needs to be rebuilt in a big-picture sense. You can't convince your fan base, free agents or even coaching candidates that you're making fundamental changes if Millen's top assistant replaces him -- no matter who it is.
6. Throw a bone to fans -- not a gimmick or a marketing slogan, but something that genuinely invites their interest. A 10 percent cut in ticket prices might be a start. Or, perhaps, a real barnstorming tour that allows fans to ask unedited questions of the Lions' football decision-makers over the course of the season. Transparency and honesty during the rebuilding process, while not comfortable, will help re-connect to a fan base that has lost faith in the team's ability to operate effectively.
ABOUT THIS BLOG
Kevin Seifert
Seifert joined ESPN.com in 2008 after covering the Minnesota Vikings for the Minneapolis Star Tribune for eight years. He lives in the Twin Cities with his wife and children.
