NFC North: Doug Martin

NFC North drop totals and percentages

November, 1, 2012
11/01/12
3:00
PM ET
I've found over the years that dropped passes tend to generate high levels of angst among readers, regardless of their frequency. I get it. There are few things more frustrating in football than seeing a good-looking play have the proverbial rug pulled out from under it.

I tossed out a few of ESPN Stats and Information's raw numbers Wednesday on Twitter and was quickly deluged with individual questions and requests for more context. So I'll endeavor to pass along all relevant information in this post.

Drops are a subjective statistic, and my experience with ESPN Stats & Information is that an incompletion has to be an obvious, clear drop for it to be recorded as one. As a result, you might see other statistical services hand out more drops. But to me it's all relative, as long as the same standards are applied to each team, we can get a clear perspective on who is dropping lots of passes and who isn't.

As the chart shows, the Green Bay Packers have the most drops in the NFC North (19) as well as the highest drop percentage (6.6). The 19 drops is tied for the NFL lead, but as we discussed on Twitter, percentage is more important because it adjusts for teams who throw more often. It stand to reason that a team like the Packers would have more drops than the Bears, who have thrown 155 fewer targeted passes over the first eight weeks of the season.

For the Packers, receiver Jordy Nelson has been debited with five drops. Tight end Jermichael Finley has four, receiver Randall Cobb has three and receiver Donald Driver has two (on nine targeted passes). No one else has more than one drop, and receiver James Jones -- who has some of the most notorious drops in recent Packers history -- has not been debited with any in 2012.

Below are some other notable drop figures in the NFC North. For reference, the NFL leader in drops based on this standard are Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Doug Martin and Dallas Cowboys tight end Jason Witten, who have seven drops apiece.

MINNEAPOLIS -- A few thoughts after Thursday night's 36-17 Tampa Bay victory at the Metrodome:

What it means: The Vikings are 5-3 at their season's midpoint. It's better than what many thought they would do, but their second-half schedule is far more difficult. That's what made Thursday night's presumably winnable game so crucial. Entering this game, home teams had won 13 of the past 16 Thursday-night games. Since 1990, 5-3 teams have made the playoffs 66.4 percent of the time.

Offensive struggles: Quarterback Christian Ponder got off to a slow start on the heels of his 58-yard performance on Sunday against the Arizona Cardinals, completing just one of six passes for four yards in the fourth quarter. He played a really substandard game for the second consecutive week. But Ponder wasn't solely to blame for the Vikings falling behind 10-0 in the first quarter and 20-10 at halftime. Two fumbles near midfield, one from receiver Jerome Simpson and one from tailback Adrian Peterson, led to 10 Tampa Bay points in the first half. But two things seem clear. The Vikings don't have an offense capable of playing from behind. And Ponder doesn't look to be playing with a lot of confidence. He is guiding his throws instead of driving them.

Martin factor: The Vikings had a hard time tackling an opposing running back for the second game in a row. Last week, it was the Cardinals' LaRod Stephens-Howling. Thursday night, it was rookie running back Doug Martin, who finished with 135 rushing yards and 79 receiving. Most notably, Martin ran through four arm tackles on his 64-yard touchdown reception on the opening drive of the third quarter.

Seeing blood: Tensions rose late in the third quarter when Bucs left tackle Donald Penn, a former Vikings practice-squad player, pushed off defensive end Jared Allen's helmet after the play and landed several punches. Allen was left with a cut on the bridge of his nose and was livid when referee Ron Winter's crew assessed offsetting fouls. As he and Penn continued to gesture to one another, Allen followed up with a sack on the ensuing third down, setting the crowd into a frenzy.

Missed opportunity: Trailing 30-17 at the time, the Vikings couldn't capitalize on the ensuing emotional wave. They went three-and-out on their next series, which included two plays that lost yardage, and their defense looked winded as the Bucs answered with a 16-play, 87-yard drive that took nearly nine minutes off the clock and ultimately made it a three-score game.

Injury report: Cornerback Chris Cook didn't return after leaving the game in the third quarter with an arm injury. He was replaced by rookie Josh Robinson in base defense and veteran A.J. Jefferson in the nickel.

What's next: The Vikings have 10 days to get ready for their next game, Nov. 4 at the Seattle Seahawks.
We noted earlier that ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay had changed his pick for the Minnesota Vikings at No. 3 overall in his latest mock draft Insider, elevating LSU cornerback Morris Claiborne into a slot long held by USC left tackle Matt Kalil. ESPN's Mel Kiper joined McShay in that swap in an updated mock released Wednesday Insider. Now let's take a look at their picks for the rest of the division:

19. Chicago Bears
Kiper:
Illinois defensive end Whitney Mercilus
McShay: North Carolina defensive end Quinton Coples
Seifert comment: There seems to be universal mock agreement that, all things relatively equal, the Bears will choose a defensive end rather than an offensive lineman in the first round. Mercilus was my choice in the ESPN blogger mock draft. Coples would be a fascinating debate if he falls as far as No. 19. He has top-10 talent but there are lingering questions about his work ethic after a lackluster 2011 season.

23. Detroit Lions
Kiper:
Boise State running back Doug Martin
McShay: Stanford offensive tackle Jonathan Martin
Seifert comment: I realize the Lions have a need in the backfield, but will they really spend a high draft choice on a running back for the third consecutive year? We've wondered collectively how valuable running backs really are here in the NFC North's Air and Space division. At this point in McShay's mock, three cornerbacks were already off the board.

28. Green Bay Packers
Kiper:
Boise State linebacker Shea McClellin
McShay: Illinois defensive end Whitney Mercilus
Seifert comment: We haven't had much of any discussion on the connection between Mercilus and the Packers, who run a 3-4 and presumably would need to use him at outside linebacker. I would be surprised if he is available at No. 28, but no one really knows anything at this point. McClellin was my choice in the blogger mock.

(Note: McShay's mock goes a full seven rounds. You'll need an Insider subscription to see beyond what I've provided.)
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