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Five nuggets of knowledge about Week 1:

All Forte: After so much summer discussion about his contract, his strengths and his weaknesses, it appears Matt Forte will be the Chicago Bears' second-most important offensive player Sunday against the Atlanta Falcons and beyond. (Quarterback Jay Cutler is obviously No. 1.) Backup tailback Marion Barber didn't practice this week because of a calf injury, and the Bears' only reserve help could be little-used Kahlil Bell. Barber's primary role this season was likely to take some pounding away from Forte in goal-line and short-yardage situations, which has never been a strength of Forte's anyway. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Forte has managed only five touchdowns on 57 goal-to-go carries since the start of the 2009 season. Against a team like the Falcons, the Bears can't afford too many red-zone breakdowns. They'll either need Forte to convert or they'll have to take to the air. For what it's worth, Cutler has thrown more red-zone interceptions (13) than any other NFL quarterback over the past three seasons.

Unknown quantity: We didn't learn much this summer about the Bears' defense, which has moving parts at several positions and didn't make much of an impact on preseason games one way or the other. The Falcons are a power running team that made a big offseason splash to trade up in the draft for big-play receiver Julio Jones. If they're on task, that's a tough combination to defend. We still don't know who, other than Julius Peppers, can provide a pass rush for the Bears and we're awaiting a safety transition involving newcomer Brandon Meriweather. The Bears will have their hands full defensively, but keep in mind that the Falcons haven't come to Chicago and won a game since the 1983 season opener.

HotHotHot: Sunday's updated weather forecast for Tampa calls for a high of 91 degrees with 77 percent humidity at Raymond James Stadium. As we discussed during the week, it's been a hot summer in the upper midwest. I'm not sure the Detroit Lions practiced in anything quite like they're going to experience Sunday, but all NFL players should be in condition to play a hot-weather game in Week 1. To me, it's the less-expected hot weather you might experience in October or even November that can catch you off guard. The Lions will need to stay on top of their hydration to avoid cramping and the like, but I'm not sure this issue will impact the outcome of the game.

Matchup of young stars: This game will feature two of the top three quarterbacks in the 2009 draft, the Lions' Matthew Stafford and the Buccaneers' Josh Freeman. It also will put on display the Lions' good fortune in having the No. 2 overall pick of the 2010 draft rather than No. 3. The Lions chose defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, leaving the Bucs to take defensive tackle Gerald McCoy. As it turns out, McCoy has been a pretty good player. But Suh is ready to break out as one of the NFL's best. Suh and nose tackle Corey Williams will look to stuff Bucs tailback LeGarrette Blount, who gashed them for 61 yards on seven carries on runs up the middle in the teams' 2010 matchup.

Slow starts: Many observers have the Minnesota Vikings pegged to limp out of the gate this season, noting their offensive scheme transition, along with the presence of a new quarterback (Donovan McNabb) and left tackle (Charlie Johnson). But as it turns out, the Vikings on Sunday will face the NFL's most notorious slow starters over the past seven seasons. The San Diego Chargers have a combined 30-26 record during the first half of those seasons and a 46-10 record in the second half. For whatever reason, the Vikings are getting the Chargers at the proverbial right time. For what it's worth, the preseason showed us that if the Vikings struggle early in 2011, it will be because of their shaky personnel situation on defense. Their starting lineup Sunday will include three new defensive linemen, one untested linebacker (Erin Henderson) and a rotation at strong safety between Jamarca Sanford and Tyrell Johnson. On the other hand, their offense appeared relatively cohesive both in camp and in the preseason.

ESPN's Chris Mortensen is the latest reporter to suggest that the agents for unsigned Detroit Lions rookie Ndamukong Suh are seeking more money than the player selected ahead of him in the 2010 draft, quarterback Sam Bradford.

The numbers Mortensen reported are staggering -- six years, $90 million with $56 million in guarantees -- but likely represent a negotiating tactic rather than a hard-line from agents Roosevelt Barnes and Eugene Parker. As we discussed Saturday, it's difficult to imagine the Lions paying Suh more than the quarterback premium Bradford received.

What probably has created some wiggle room for Suh's agents is the large gap between Bradford's total guarantees ($50 million) and that of the No. 3 overall pick Gerald McCoy ($35 million). Stay tuned. The Lions have two practices Sunday, at 9 a.m. at 3:15 p.m.

The Detroit Lions had multiple conversations Saturday with the agents for defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, but they did not reach an agreement in time for Suh to participate in the Lions' opening practice of camp.

Suh was the No. 2 overall pick in the draft, and the No. 1 (Sam Bradford) and No. 3 (Gerald McCoy) have reached contract agreements. So if negotiations don't conclude sometimes this weekend, we'll know that a bigger gap remains than simply waiting for the players on either side of Suh's slot to set the market.

Bradford received $50 million in guarantees, while McCoy got $35 million. That $15 million gap is pretty substantial, even considering the "quarterback premium" Bradford received, and it gives Suh's agents some wiggle room if they choose to haggle for the final dollar.

Tom Kowalski of Mlive.com reports that Suh is seeking more guaranteed money than Bradford, arguing he was bypassed as the No. 1 overall pick only because the St. Louis Rams didn't want to pay a defensive tackle so much money. If that's the case, we're going to be in for an extended holdout. I can't imagine a scenario where the Lions would agree to those terms.

Speaking to Detroit reporters Saturday, Lions president Tom Lewand seemed optimistic that a deal was within reach. He said he planned to have at least one more conversation with agents Roosevelt Barnes and Eugene Parker before the end of Saturday and added: "As long as we're talking, we're making progress and we continue to talk. We are very, very focused on trying to get a deal done."

Stay tuned.

In these final hours before the NFL draft opens, you would have to look pretty hard to find a media analyst who is convinced the Detroit Lions won't take Nebraska defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh with the No. 2 overall pick. But what if they don't? What if the Lions, led by one of the more mysterious general managers in the league, pull a surprise and look elsewhere?

(That means you, Martin Mayhew.)

What would that mean for the Lions? Who would they pick? Where would that leave the rest of the draft? (Why am I asking so many questions?) Let's consider some possibilities while we await the opening bell:

• As we discussed a few weeks ago, many media draft analysts actually favor Oklahoma's Gerald McCoy as a pure prospect. Suh is considered the so-called "safer" choice because of his heavy college production. Still, we've got nothing other than conventional wisdom and peer pressure telling us the Lions rank Suh over McCoy. For all we know, it could be McCoy.
• We could be wrong in assuming the Lions aren't factoring in the finances of paying No. 2 money to a defensive tackle. As we noted earlier this offseason, it is one of the game's lowest-paid positions. Let's not totally rule out the possibility that the Lions would look at a left tackle for that reason, even though coach Jim Schwartz has said he is happy with current starter Jeff Backus. Two of the draft's top left tackles visited the Lions' complex: Oklahoma State's Russell Okung and Oklahoma's Trent Williams. No one should be stunned if either were the pick.
• If the Lions went with a left tackle instead of Suh or McCoy, it's very possible the rookie would open the season as a reserve. Backus could well remain at left tackle, with newcomer Rob Sims the likely starter at left guard. The Lions are one year removed from giving right guard Stephen Peterman a five-year contract extension. And it seems that right tackle Gosder Cherilus will get one more year to establish himself.
• Without Suh or McCoy, the likeliest starting defensive tackle duo would be Corey Williams and Sammie Lee Hill. Unless the Lions trade for Washington defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth, another possible impediment to drafting Suh.
• If the Lions draft McCoy, you would figure Tampa Bay will snatch Suh at No. 3. The rest of the draft would be unaffected.
• If the choice is Okung or Williams, the draft could get turned on its heels. Either Suh or McCoy could fall as far as Cleveland at No. 7, but probably no further.
• Finally, we shouldn't assume the Lions will react to popular sentiment, including that of their own fans. Don't forget that last year, Lions fans were urging them to take linebacker Aaron Curry over quarterback Matthew Stafford.

I'm not trying to shake up any Detroit fans who are lighting by cyberspace in hopes that Suh becomes a Lion this evening. But we should all be realistic and accept that anyone who thinks they absolutely, positively know what's going to happen is either lying, delusional or an NFC North blogger for ESPN.com.

Each Wednesday leading up to the NFL draft (April 22-24), the ESPN.com blog network will take a division-by-division look at key aspects of the draft. Today's topic: Dream scenario/Plan B.

Chicago Bears

Dream scenario: Without a first- or second-round pick, Chicago's dreams are pretty muted this week. They have significant needs at guard and cornerback, but nothing would make them happier than having a starting-caliber safety fall to them at No. 75 overall. The nature of the position, and the depth of this draft, makes it possible. They might not get South Florida's Nate Allen, who is a likely second-round pick, but there should be other options. Finding a starter without having to sacrifice additional picks in a trade-up would be ideal.

Plan B: Guards are not highly coveted from a draft perspective, and if the Bears don't like any of the safeties available to them at No. 75, they should be able to find someone to compete for their wide-open spot at left guard. As of now, the only veteran in the mix for that role is Josh Beekman.

Detroit Lions

Dream scenario: This might be too dreamy to actually happen, but here goes: The Lions acquire Washington defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth for a third-round pick. They draft Oklahoma State's Russell Okung at No. 2 overall and grab Cal running back Jahvid Best at No. 34. Although they pass over arguably the two best prospects of the draft -- defensive tackles Ndamukong Suh and Gerald McCoy -- the Lions still get an elite defensive tackle, a fixture at left tackle and a playmaker in the backfield who would be ready to contribute immediately while starter Kevin Smith continues his knee rehabilitation. I've shied away from this scenario, believing the cost for Haynesworth would be too high, but a third-round pick is pretty reasonable here.

Plan B: Frankly, getting a dynamic defensive playmaker at No. 2 -- Suh or McCoy -- is an awfully nice fallback position.

Green Bay Packers

Dream scenario: The Packers need a left tackle of the future. As this year's draft class stacks up, there is a significant dropoff between the top four left tackles and whoever you consider to be No. 5. Currently situated at No. 23, the Packers probably aren't going to get a chance at Okung, Oklahoma's Trent Williams, Rutgers' Anthony Davis or Iowa's Bryan Bulaga. But as long as we're in a dream-like state, we can hope that one of those four -- Davis? -- somehow slips to No. 23 or close enough that the Packers can make a reasonable trade up to get him.

Plan B: In our blog network mock draft, I proposed taking a chance on USC left tackle Charles Brown. He would probably get at least a year to develop, based on current starter Chad Clifton's contract, and would benefit from being in a stable offensive environment.

Minnesota Vikings

Dream scenario: Vice president of player personnel Rick Spielman said this week that he is confident at least one of his four targeted players will be available with the No. 30 overall pick. I won't hazard a guess at their identities, but ideally one of them would be a quarterback and fall to their spot. More than anything, this franchise needs a young quarterback to build around. More often than not, those quarterbacks are found at the top of the draft and at least in the first round. There are no assurances about waiting for next year. Getting their quarterback of the future is the Vikings' dream scenario.

Plan B: The Vikings have a relatively strong roster otherwise, and therefore can afford to draft for value at every spot if they choose. If their quarterback of the future isn't available at No. 30, or he can be selected lower in the draft, then they'll benefit from additional depth that the best available player will bring.

So you've had a few hours to ruminate over the NFL Blog Network's 2010 mock draft. I'm glad to see the comments are flowing over on the NFL Nation blog as well. Now it's time for me to justify, make excuses for and/or weakly defend my choices for Detroit, Green Bay and Minnesota.

Detroit Lions
Position: No. 2 overall
Pick: Nebraska defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh
Justification: We've been through so many angles on this pick that we forget what should be the Lions' top priority: Choosing the best player available. There is some debate about whether Suh will be a better pro than Oklahoma's Gerald McCoy, but there is no doubt (in my mind) that Suh was the better and more productive college player. Ultimately, I sided with past history over future projection.

Green Bay Packers
Position: No. 23 overall
Pick: USC tackle Charles Brown
Making excuses: Esteemed NFC East baron Matt Mosley immediately took a shot at this decision, calling Brown a "project" whose selection allowed Philadelphia to grab Boise State cornerback Kyle Wilson. I found myself in the no-man's land we first discussed last month. The top four tackles were off the board, as was Idaho guard Mike Iupati. Texas linebacker Sergio Kindle went at No. 22. I gave some thought to Texas Christian linebacker Jerry Hughes, but I decided I would rather have the next-best left tackle rather than the next-best pass-rusher. Packers general manager Ted Thompson has taken "project" players before (defensive tackle Justin Harrell). And there is no indication the Packers are looking for an immediate starter at left tackle considering the contract they gave Chad Clifton.

Minnesota Vikings
Position: No. 30 overall
Pick: Florida guard/center Maurkice Pouncey
Weakly defending: I know a quarterback would have been the more interesting choice, but my decision was not to use the No. 30 overall pick on Florida's Tim Tebow or Texas' Colt McCoy. The Vikings could probably trade back into the top or possibly middle of the second round and still get either player if that were the case. Minnesota's roster is such that it can pick for value at every spot in the draft. When I looked at the remaining players on the board, I thought Pouncey was the best. The Vikings might have their board stacked differently, but I think they'll take their highest-rated player here. In the short-term, Pouncey would put some pressure on center John Sullivan and right guard Anthony Herrera.

Whether it was intentional or otherwise -- and based on how he operates, I would suggest the former - Detroit general manager Martin Mayhew painted a flexible picture Thursday of his intentions with the No. 2 overall pick in next week's draft. Meeting with Detroit-area reporters, Mayhew said the Lions aren't likely to trade down but are still formulating the highest levels of their draft board amid blue-chip grades that are "tight as I've ever seen it."

In other words, the Lions could take any of the draft's top players and won't make a final decision until "probably [next] Thursday," Mayhew said.

Riiight.

It's foolish to think the Lions don't have a pretty solid plan in place, barring unexpected trade offers or some other surprising development. Mayhew is loathe to offer any hints, but I did think he made a notable comparison between this year's draft and the 2003 affair in which the Lions drafted receiver Charles Rogers at No. 2 overall.

The potential pool of players the Lions likely will be choosing this year -- defensive tackles Ndamukong Suh and Gerald McCoy, and left tackle Russell Okung -- have cleaner resumes than any of the players the Lions considered in 2003.

"It's never fool-proof," Mayhew said. "[But] I would say that this year, being at No. 2, is a lot better than being at No. 2 the year we drafted Charles Rogers. Just in terms of the number of concerns you have with different players, the players that are there now, a lot of them -- and I've talked to a lot of people in the last week or so, head coaches and people who have been around these guys -- a lot of these guys are solid off-the-field character guys and are relatively-healthy guys. High-effort guys, very motivated, intrinsically motivated type of guys. There is a good pool to pick from at two this year."

If you thought that sounded partly like praise and partly like an invitation to trade up into the No. 2 position, you're probably right. Mayhew said "at this point, I would anticipate being at [No. 2]" but clearly would like some trade discussion to come his way. Stranger things have happened, but that seems unlikely at this point.

We'll post the ESPN Blog Network mock draft next Monday, and you can probably guess who I chose for the Lions at No. 2. (No, it wasn't Knowshon Moreno.) For all of Mayhew's protestations to the contrary, it's safe to believe he knows who he's taking. If I had to guess, I would say that player's last name starts with an "S", ends with an "h" and has a "u" in the middle. I'll let you puzzle over that riddle for at least a minute or so.

It's difficult to find a mock draft these days that doesn't pair Detroit with Nebraska defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh. And amid the paradox and hedging that defines media draft analysis, it's commonplace to see Oklahoma's Gerald McCoy ranked above Suh as a pure prospect.

(Mock draft evidence here, here and here. Ranking reversal at Scouts Inc., NFL.com, and Pro Football Weekly. ESPN's Mel Kiper is one of the few Suh supporters in both categories.)

"You could flip a coin on these two," Kiper said last week. But with Detroit poised to choose between them with the No. 2 overall pick, the important question is this: Can you? Are McCoy and Suh truly interchangeable prospects? Or will we look back one day and scrutinize the decision the way draft historians have broken down the 1998 choice between quarterbacks Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf?

To be sure, Suh-McCoy is not nearly as dramatic as Manning-Leaf. Defensive tackles don't impact a game the way quarterbacks do, and Leaf represented an extreme case of draft flameout.

But for the first time in 34 years, we're expecting two defensive tackles to be among the first five picks of an NFL draft. Usually we're discussing whether there are any tackles worthy of that honor, let alone trying to draw distinctions between two.

That dynamic, along with conventional draft history, suggests it would be a folly to be believe both players will have comparable careers. I couldn't find a suitable metric for determining draft success, but I can tell you many NFL personnel men follow a general principle espoused by Chicago general manager Jerry Angelo this week. "Half of the first round won't play to expectations," Angelo said.

Those who fall short of expectations aren't necessarily busts. The high threshold for first-round picks, let alone those taken in the top 5, is hard to meet. Historically speaking, there is a right and wrong -- or, at least, less right -- decision to be made here.

We've had so many discussions about whether the Lions should consider a left tackle at No. 2 overall that I think we've failed to give enough consideration the more likely scenario: Choosing between Suh and McCoy. How should the Lions make that choice?

I don't know if any of us can answer that with certainty using present-day facts. What we can do, however, is offer the parameters the Lions are surely considering in their analysis.

Production

Many scouts will tell you they prefer to have seen a player produce in games rather than assume what they might do in the NFL. By that measure, Suh's production outweighed McCoy's from every measurable vantage point.

Most of you already know the basics: McCoy had 14 sacks in his college career. Suh managed 12 last season. But the charts to your right, compiled by ESPN's Stats & Information, more fully illustrate Suh's tangible production in each player's final college season.

As you can see, Suh managed 88 impact plays -- sacks, tackles for losses, quarterback hurries and deflections/interceptions -- last season to McCoy's 46.5. Suh was also more effective on third downs. It's true that Suh played one additional game, but the ratio is still 2-1 when you consider it from the perspective of impact plays per snap. The same is true when you measure Suh's performance against double teams relative to McCoy.

The numbers alone shouldn't account for a choice between the two, but you would be hard-pressed to find a scout that doesn't place premium value on demonstrated college production. Asked about the statistical discrepancy at the combine, McCoy said his job at Oklahoma was to be a "disruptor" and "make sure [the ball] doesn't get past the line of scrimmage." In that assignment, McCoy implied, it was more important to re-direct the ball carrier than it was to make the tackle itself.

Which brings us to ...

Scheme

Another paradox of the Suh-McCoy debate is that Suh played in a "two-gap" system at Nebraska while McCoy was in a "one-gap" scheme at Oklahoma. For those who don't know what that means: The number corresponds to how many lanes between offensive linemen the defensive lineman is responsible for.

The conventional expectation for a two-gapping defensive tackle is that he will clog the line and allow linebackers to jump in and make a play. A one-gap defensive tackle typically has more freedom to get into the backfield and make a play because he has only one direction to worry about.

If anything, given those parameters, you would have expected McCoy to compile better numbers. But Suh's production advantage means the Lions will have to make schematic projections on both players.

In McCoy's case, they'll have to determine why Suh was more productive in a less aggressive scheme. For Suh, the Lions will have to project if he would be equally as effective as a penetrator as he was in holding up the line of scrimmage and finding the ball.

The Lions, it should be noted, run a scheme closer to Oklahoma's than Nebraska's. They will ask Suh or McCoy to be aggressive and get into the backfield with one-gap responsibility.

Although I doubt he would admit otherwise, Lions coach Jim Schwartz said last month that either player would fit their scheme.

"That's not what those players are," Schwartz said. "That's what they were asked to do. They're very similar in their skill set. I think both of them -- if you took Suh to Oklahoma and McCoy to Nebraska -- I think they'd both excel in the other person's defense. When you are drafting at the top of the draft, you're looking for guys who aren't just a creation of the scheme. You're looking for guys who have multidimensional skills that can do a lot of those different things.

"Both guys are big. They're fast. They have high character and both are productive at a high level of competition. There's a lot to like with both of them."

But with projections required for both players, scheme clues don't help clarify the issue.

Background

There are no obvious red flags for either player, but you consider every background blip when drafting as high as No. 2. Suh's medical report has drawn some scrutiny because of two knee injuries, including a torn meniscus that required him to redshirt his freshman year.

McCoy, meanwhile, produced a disappointing 23 repetitions on the bench press at the scouting combine and hasn't made another attempt to increase that total. Is a low bench-press total a reason to pass over someone in the draft? Not necessarily, but it's certainly worth further investigation to ensure McCoy is entering the NFL with the strength necessary to take on 320-pound guards and centers.

As Schwartz noted, both players have excellent character reputations. If you haven't already, make sure you check out ESPN.com profiles of McCoy and Suh. For what it's worth, McCoy was president of Oklahoma's chapter of the Fellowship of Christian Athletes.

What to do?

There are no obvious hints of a potential bust from either player, but expectations for a No. 2 pick extend much higher than that. Like any other team in their position, the Lions need dominance -- not just production -- from this pick.

If you're basing it on past performance, Suh would be the choice. If you want to take it deeper, it gets more complicated. And that's where we are now. Nine days. And counting.

Be it through the mailbag, Facebook, Twitter or subliminal messages, I'm always interested in your feedback. Believe it or not, I appreciate it when you spur more complete thoughts or point out a hole in my argument. That's where we'll start this weekend.

On with it....

Randal of Cambridge, Minn., writes: Enjoyed your QB story but you are painting too broad of a brush. Who has Minnesota passed over in the draft that it should not have? Even with 20-20 hindsight, there has not been too many. What highly rated QB sat in the green room, while the Vikings drafted another position? Maybe Aaron Rodgers, but at that time Dante Culpepper looked pretty good. The issue is that they have rarely hit bottom. They have been too consistent. This is not the Rams or Lions who are in the top 10 most years.

Kevin Seifert: You make a fair point, Randal, and it's something I wish I had looked at prior to posting. I'm not ready to concede my primary point, but let's first examine exactly what you're talking about.

The chart below shows every first-round quarterback selected after the Vikings' spot over the past 20 years.


The two best quarterbacks on this list are Drew Brees and Rodgers. At both points, there was no indication the Vikings needed a franchise quarterback. Culpepper made the Pro Bowl in 2000, and in 2004 he produced his best-ever season. I can't blame the Vikings for passing over Brees in 2001 and Rodgers in 2005.

And with hindsight, of course, it's hard to find fault with the decisions to draft Adrian Peterson over Brady Quinn in 2007 and Kenechi Udeze over J.P Losman in 2004.

But I think we should tread carefully when considering a linear analysis of the past. Washington, for example, couldn't establish Jason Campbell as its long-term answer at quarterback after selecting him in 2005. But how can we know for sure that Campbell's career would have progressed in the same direction if he were taken by another team?

What if the Vikings had drafted him, for example, and allowed him to spend the past four seasons working with the same offensive coaches rather than experiencing the yearly turnover he had with the Redskins? Perhaps his future would have followed a different path. I'm not saying it would have, but we shouldn't overvalue hindsight in these situations.

And yes, it's true the Vikings weren't always in position to draft an elite quarterback because of their relative success the previous season. But we shouldn't give them a full pass on that. After all, it's within NFL rules to trade up and grab a player you feel strongly about. Denver did that in 2006 and would up with Jay Cutler -- six spots ahead of the Vikings. He was in the Pro Bowl by his third season.

So I guess the crux of my argument remains unchanged. While it's hard to heavily criticize the Vikings for the quarterbacks they have passed over in recent years, they're not blameless. You have to swing the bat -- even if it means trading up or trusting your ability to develop a prospect -- to get a hit. At some point, they're going to have to take the bat off their shoulder.

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Via Facebook, Andy passes along a link to former Green Bay receiver Javon Walker's latest trouble and writes: Another move Ted Thompson doesn't get credit for.

Kevin Seifert: Indeed. Walker missed 15 games in 2005 after tearing an anterior cruciate ligament, after which Thompson traded him to Denver for the No. 37 overall pick in the 2006 draft. (Thompson traded that pick away on draft day, but guard Daryn Colledge was the key player he selected with the resulting bundle.)

Although Walker had a 1,000-yard season with the Broncos in 2006, his career has since crashed. He's played in 19 games over the past three seasons and, at age 31, is out of the game. I'm not sure if Thompson foresaw any of Walker's ensuing troubles, but he certainly got a fair price for a player coming off a serious knee injury.

Andy's link gave rise to an interesting idea. Thompson has taken his lumps here and elsewhere, but what other moves should he be getting more credit for? I came up with a couple. Feel free to add or subtract in the comment section accompanying this post.

• Trading defensive tackle Corey Williams in 2008 for the No. 56 overall pick in that draft. Although the payoff didn't occur -- quarterback Brian Brohm, taken in that spot, was a bust -- Thompson got pretty decent value for a player he essentially replaced a year later with B.J. Raji.
• Hiring coach Mike McCarthy. There weren't many "hot lists" with McCarthy's name on it after the 2005 season. Thompson spent the time to find a coach who would mesh well with the draft-oriented philosophy he planned to use. In the big picture, McCarthy had made the playoffs twice in four seasons while coaching the league's youngest team. He's been a good fit where few would have predicted it prior to his arrival.

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Ian of East Leroy, Mich., finds a logic hole in our discussion about a trade that would send Washington defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth to Detroit: With the retirement of Chris Samuels and the acquisition of McNabb from Philadelphia, left tackle seems to be a priority for the Redskins. Acquiring Haynesworth would allow the Lions to draft Russell Okung instead of either Ndamukong Suh or Gerald McCoy. In effect the Redskins would also lose the top left tackle in the draft.

Kevin Seifert: Ian has made a good point: The Redskins essentially could be trading Haynesworth and Okung for Suh or McCoy and (presumably) a later pick in the draft. (That's assuming they don't take the No. 2 pick in exchange for Haynesworth, of course.)

It all would come down to how desperate Shanahan is to get Haynesworth off his team. Does he need to get something in return? Otherwise, he could always release him after the draft.

I guess I wouldn't make Okung the key to a Haynesworth trade. If you can get something in return for him, and still be in position to take Suh or McCoy, I think it might be worth it. But the original point is valid: The deal is more complicated at second glance.

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Brian of Chicago writes: Seems the Bears' biggest remaining needs are a "quarterbacking" safety and help on the OL. Dallas just released Ken Hamlin and Flozell Adams. Now, I'm hesitant on Adams mostly because of last year's debacle with Orlando Pace, and Flozell is the same age as OP. But to me Ken Hamlin is a slam dunk. Thoughts?

Kevin Seifert: Agreed on Adams. I'd stay away from him. Hamlin is a bit of a different story. He was a Pro Bowl player as recently as 2007, but since then he has one interception in his last 28 games.

I don't see him as anything more than a short-term answer at a position where the Bears really don't have many viable in-house candidates to start. He's better than what they have, and that's about the best thing I can say about him. It's possible the Bears could find an immediate starter in the draft, but they're not going to get two. I'd give him a hard look.

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Ben of Lincoln, Neb., writes: I want to know your feelings about the Lions picking Matthew Stafford last year. What I remember is everyone saying that the next year would have a better QB class, and that the Lions should pick a lineman. Now everyone this year is saying that this years QB class is not that great, and next years will be. Is the QB something that one has to evaluate for the current year, and not plan ahead, or do you still think the Lions should have waited?

Kevin Seifert: No, I think you take too big of a risk trying to project a class from a year out. The Lions considered Stafford the best player in the draft last season. You can argue with their evaluation if you want, but the bottom line is they would have made a mistake to subordinate their own draft board based on a 12-month projection of the upcoming class.

I wonder if those projections were based on Washington's Jake Locker entering this draft. He decided to return to school; ESPN's Mel Kiper said this week that Locker is a near-guaranteed No. 1 overall pick next season. Will he feel that way 11 months from now? It's just an educated guess and nothing more.

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Steve of Irvine writes: Do you think Suh is athletic enough to play defensive end on 1st/2nd down...then move inside on 3rd? That's the way the Lions would have used Anthony Hargrove.

Kevin Seifert: Yes, that was the plan for Hargrove had he joined the team via restricted free agency. I can't profess to be an expert on Suh's physical skills, but I've seen occasions where elite players become ordinary contributors when moved to a different position. I'm guessing Suh could play left end if he had to. But the best bet is he will be more dominant at tackle. You want your players in the position where they can maximize their skills and playmaking ability.

Minnesota did the same thing in 2003 with Kevin Williams, a player Suh has been compared to. Williams opened the season as the starting left end, where he was adequate. He moved inside full-time at about midseason and the difference was noticeable. The Vikings haven't tried that arrangement again.

» NFC Big Question: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Several important clues have appeared to help us discern the top of the NFL draft. As the smoke clears, can there be any way that Detroit won't end up with Nebraska defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh?

Draft intentions are difficult to interpret, especially those of tight-lipped Lions general manager Martin Mayhew. But as much as these things can be predicted, a Suh-Lions marriage seems awfully likely.

Although this scenario has been the likeliest for some time, several variables no longer exist.

First, St. Louis released starting quarterback Marc Bulger on Monday. The move was the strongest indication yet that the Rams will draft Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford -- and not Suh -- with the No. 1 overall pick.

Second, Washington acquired quarterback Donovan McNabb from Philadelphia for two draft picks, including its second-round pick this year. With their quarterback position filled, and a critical draft position shipped out, it's hard to imagine the Redskins as a major trade-up contender for the Lions' No. 2 overall pick.

Before the McNabb deal, there was some thought the Redskins might have enough interest in Notre Dame quarterback Jimmy Clausen to swing a deal. That seems unlikely now, dramatically lessening the possibility of a Clausen-generated bidding war at No. 2.

Third, defensive lineman Anthony Hargrove signed his restricted free-agent tender with New Orleans. The Lions had hosted Hargrove for a visit and might have considered another position at No. 2 had they acquired him through an offer sheet.

Now, the only obstacle to figuring out the Lions is knowing whether their talent evaluators agree that Suh is a better prospect than Oklahoma's Gerald McCoy. That evaluation is far from a certainty. From a media analyst's perspective, at least, opinions are mixed. ESPN's Mel Kiper has Suh ranked ahead of McCoy, while Scouts Inc. lists them in reverse order. McCoy also heads the list over at NFL.com, where Mike Mayock is the primary draft analyst.

Speaking last month at the NFL owners meetings, Lions coach Jim Schwartz said there is not as much difference between the two players "as people think" and that they were asked to play different styles at their respective schools.

"They're very similar in their skill set," Schwartz said. "If you took Suh to Oklahoma and you took McCoy to Nebraska, I think they'd both excel in the other person's defense. When you're drafting at the top of the draft, you're looking for guys who aren't just a creation of the scheme and you're looking for guys who have multidimensional skills that can do a lot of different things. Both guys are big, they're fast, have high character and both are productive at a high level of competition. There's a lot to like with both of them."

We've discussed the possibility of the Lions drafting Oklahoma State left tackle Russell Okung for financial reasons. But if you trust the team's pledge to take the best available player with each pick, regardless of position, you can narrow the choices down to Suh and McCoy. And although it's impossible to know with certainty what the Lions are thinking, Suh at No. 2 seems more likely than ever with the draft 17 days away.

Last week, ESPN.com profiled Nebraska defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh. Thursday, it was time to look at another defensive tackle who is a candidate for Detroit's No. 2 overall pick: Oklahoma's Gerald McCoy.

You should make sure you read all of Jeffri Chadiha's profile, but I'd like to offer up his powerful opening scene:

Gerald McCoy felt the cold walls pressing against his thick arms and immediately thought one thing: Get me out of here.

The Oklahoma defensive tackle knew his claustrophobia might be a problem when he entered that MRI machine at the NFL combine. He never expected it to flare up so badly on his third day in Indianapolis. Within minutes, McCoy winced and wheezed and wriggled as if somebody had sealed him inside a body bag.

The league's medical staff tried their best to help him. They moved McCoy to an MRI facility located about 10 minutes from Lucas Oil Stadium. They let one of his agents, Kelly Masters, sit with him after seven attempts with that machine failed to make him feel comfortable. Finally, the league found a device at another medical building -- one that allowed McCoy to be filmed without the front of his body being covered -- and told him he'd be going home if this didn't work out.

"I just couldn't help it," said McCoy, who eventually completed the MRI after four tries at his third stop. "I really can't sit still for too long."

Great discussion this week about the complicating financial factors Detroit will face with its No. 2 overall draft pick. As we noted in the original post, some teams would be reluctant to pay a defensive tackle -- Ndamukong Suh or any other -- the kind of premium contract usually reserved for quarterbacks, defensive ends and left tackles.

The question: Should the Lions consider Oklahoma State left tackle Russell Okung over Suh (or Oklahoma's Gerald McCoy) because of the financial considerations? Remember, those factors arise from the longstanding NFL sense that left tackles are more important and impact the outcome of games more directly than defensive tackles.

From what I saw, you largely refused to consider the financial aspect and confined the debate simply to whether the Lions would be better off adding a left tackle or a defensive tackle. I didn't tabulate each answer, but in the abstract, a significant percentage of you favored Okung.

In terms of building for the future, wrote rfrelin23, protecting quarterback Matthew Stafford should be the Lions' highest priority:

"Everyone seems to be on the same 'wavelength' here. If the [Lions] feel Okung is an all-pro LT then they must take him. The future of the franchise rests on the shoulders of Stafford (and he can't throw the ball off his backside). Right now the Lions don't need star players, rather they need solid NFL starters. A DT does not make or break a franchise, but QB does!"

While Suh is the consensus top player in the draft, TDbuddah warned against believing any surefire projections:

"If the Lion personnel guys project Okung as a can't-miss, NFL-caliber LT, they should take him. Obviously, there is no proof that any of these ... guys will be a superstar in the NFL. When that's the case, I would lean towards protecting the franchise."

But that's just the point, some of you argued. Passing on Suh for these reasons "would be foolish," wrote seanje. Suh is a "once in a decade, position redefining player," wrote funlovin 24. Vikes4ever70 asked: "Who's worth $10+ million per year? Okung or Suh? Regardless of value of position, I say Suh."

Taking Okung would allow the Lions to move Jeff Backus to left guard, addressing two needs. But solidifying those positions wouldn't be enough to satisfy SuperSloth003:

"We need studs. (best players available at a positional need). Suh is the best prospect and we must take him. Deal with another year of the typical Lions o-line, then address it more effectively next year with another high draft pick. Patience my friends."

My take? I think you can make a quite reasonable argument for the Lions to follow this scenario: Sign defensive tackle Anthony Hargrove, a 26-year-old restricted free agent whose pure athletic ability matches or exceeds Suh and McCoy. Then draft Okung.

Hargrove, who visited Detroit earlier this week, has overcome multiple obstacles in his NFL career, including a one-year suspension for violating the league's substance abuse policy. But in that scenario, the Lions would align themselves with a long-term playmaker who had a substantial impact on a Super Bowl-winning team.

I think it's something the Lions are giving thought to. Over the next 3-5 years, what would give them a better chance to win: Having a mainstay at left tackle, a veteran at left guard and an ascending playmaker at defensive tackle? Or the potential of a stud defensive tackle with the other positions unaddressed?

In the original post, I suggested the Lions should only take Okung if their personnel department considered him a better prospect. But what if it's close? If, say, the Lions consider Suh a 10 and Okung an 8.9, it might make more sense to sacrifice that extra "1.1" to solidify a larger percentage of their team. This assumes the Lions sign Hargrove, which we'll know by the April 15 RFA deadline. If Hargrove remains with the Saints, I draft Suh regardless. With Hargrove in the mix, however, I would give strong consideration to Okung if scouts consider him a worthy top-5 pick.

As we plow through college basketball's March Madness, the NFL typically pauses as it awaits its annual owners' meetings. That gathering is set to begin Sunday in Orlando, Fla., so as of this moment we don't have a ton of news going on around the NFC North.

However, one interesting development came out of Minnesota on Thursday: The public commission that operates the Metrodome has agreed to replace the FieldTurf two years earlier than scheduled because of excessive wear caused by sharing it with baseball's Minnesota Twins. Here's a full report from Kevin Duchschere of the Star Tribune.

The Twins have moved into their new ballpark in downtown Minneapolis, leaving the Vikings as the only tenant at the Metrodome. Officials will spend $1.3 million to install new turf and convert the Twins' former offices into a Vikings hospitality room. The project should be completed before the 2010 preseason.

This project makes sense. There were obvious patches and divots caused by turf carve-outs for baseball's bases and pitcher's mound.

Continuing around the NFC North:

• Free agent guard Chester Pitts visited Detroit on Thursday and is now headed to San Francisco for a visit, writes Carlos Monarrez of the Detroit Free Press.
• Oklahoma defensive tackle Gerald McCoy on his visit to Detroit, via the Lions' Web site: "I'd fit in great here. How I wanted to play in college is how they play here, but we played a certain type of defense in college and I had to play within the scheme of the defense. I think that's really what made me successful as I was because I played within the scheme of the defense."
• Kentucky fullback John Conner will visit the Lions on Monday, writes John Niyo of the Detroit News.
• Pete Dougherty of the Green Bay Press-Gazette wonders if the Packers would hire Scot McCloughan if he permanently leaves his job as San Francisco's general manager. McCloughan was once a college scout in Green Bay.
• Chicago needs to continue improving its defensive personnel, writes Neil Hayes of the Chicago Sun-Times.

Detroit will continue hosting high-profile draft prospects Thursday with perhaps the highest-profile one of them all. According to longtime NFL writer Mike O'Hara, Nebraska defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh is next on the list to visit their facility.

Oklahoma State left tackle Russell Okung visited earlier this week, and Oklahoma defensive tackle Gerald McCoy was scheduled to begin a visit Wednesday night.

If you haven't already, feel free to join our "Have at It" discussion on the merits of drafting a defensive tackle versus a left tackle with the No. 2 overall pick of the draft.

Continuing around the NFC North:

• The Lions have made some changes to the way they conduct their offseason strength and conditioning program, writes Nicholas J. Cotsonika of the Detroit Free Press.
• Green Bay defensive back Will Blackmon has signed his restricted free-agent tender worth $1.176 million, notes Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
• Pete Dougherty of the Green Bay Press-Gazette confirms that Packers left guard Daryn Colledge isn't participating in the offseason program. Colledge is a restricted free agent and hasn't signed his tender.
• Packers general manager Ted Thompson attended Florida's pro day workout, featuring quarterback Tim Tebow, according to NFL.com.
• So did Minnesota vice president Rick Spielman, according to Chip Scoggins of the Star Tribune.
• Dan Pompei of the Chicago Tribune remains concerned about the Bears' lack of depth at safety.
• Bears safety Danieal Manning was disappointed with how low the team's tender offer was to him and is frustrated, writes Jeff Dickerson of ESPNChicago.com.

Quite reasonably, a few of you have grown weary of near-constant discussion of Detroit's looming choice between defensive tackles Ndamukong Suh and Gerald McCoy in next month's draft. So, taking our cue from Nick of Detroit's question in Tuesday's SportsNation chat, it's for us to consider another decision the Lions could face.

Nick asked if the Lions might consider drafting Oklahoma State left tackle Russell Okung at No. 2 overall, in part because they've already addressed several defensive line positions during free agency. I'm sticking to my original answer -- I would only take Okung if my scouts were convinced he was a better prospect than Suh/McCoy -- but I think it's important to note the real-world decision isn't that simple.

The facts are clear: In the realm of NFL economics, left tackles are far more valuable than defensive tackles. Take a look at the chart listing the 2010 franchise tag numbers for each position. Although this isn't a perfect way to measure positional value, it gives you a good idea of where NFL teams collectively rank the economic value of a defensive tackle relative to left tackle.

The league's rookie slotting system will dictate the Lions pay a premium salary to whomever they take at No. 2. (Last year's second pick, St. Louis left tackle Jason Smith, received a six-year, $61.8 million deal that included $33 million in guarantees.) The question the Lions might have to answer: Should they pay left tackle money to a defensive tackle?

I have no idea if the Lions would take this factor into account. While Okung is generally rated as the best left tackle available, I haven't heard anything to suggest he challenges Suh (or McCoy) as a pure prospect. But you're fooling yourself if you think it's not an issue that at least some teams would consider.

Left tackles are paid more because they're more difficult to find and, in the view of many NFL people, impact the outcome of games more than defensive tackles.

So let's take this topic on in "Have at It" format. If you're the Lions, would you give any thought to taking Okung over Suh (or McCoy) at No. 2? Remember, Okung visited the Lions' practice facility earlier this week. Or do you believe it would be foolish to pass on an admittedly better overall prospect for these reasons?

Let me know what you think in the comments section below. I'll cull a representative sample of your responses, and offer my own, by Friday morning. Have at it.