NFC North: Greg Jennings

We're Black and Blue All Over:

The aggressive offseason of first-year general manager Phil Emery has caught the attention of Chicago Bears players. Speaking Wednesday to announce his contract extension, linebacker Lance Briggs said: "It feels like a miracle, what they've done this offseason."

Briggs continued: "They've gone out and gotten a bunch of guys that are going to help us win a championship. I know that … we are a contender. Even guys that have signed, they know they signed here instead of possibly other places because we're a contender."

Briggs said that "on paper," the Bears have their most talented roster in his tenure with the team.

"Would I call us the dream team?" Briggs said. "No, I would not. But I would say we're a championship-caliber team, potentially. … We have to go out and transition it to the field. We have to go out and turn the paper into reality."

With a pair of 2011 playoff teams in their division, the Bears needed to get better. They knew it and their players knew it, and Emery has made a good first impression on them.

Continuing around the NFC North:

NFC North weekend mailbag

March, 17, 2012
Mar 17
8:00
AM ET
Given how fluid this time of year is, I once again mined the mailbag for questions and topics that didn't figure to be impacted by breaking news over the weekend. You can get in touch with me via the mailbag, Twitter or our nearly full Facebook page.

Onward….

Mark of San Diego writes: I've seen several columnists comment on the high amount of drops Brandon Marshall has had in his career, but they all mention in almost the same breath how many targets he gets. Is there a chart someplace (like maybe a future blog post) that shows drops as a percent of targets?

Kevin Seifert: That's a good and fair question, Mark. Statistics are always more valuable when viewed in context, and it stands to reason that the more passes a player is thrown, the more likely he'll have a higher number of drops.

The raw number, according to ESPN Stats & Information, is that Marshall has dropped 26 passes since 2008, the third-highest total in the NFL over that stretch. I don't have his total targets over that stretch, but I can give you a glimpse into his drop percentage over the past two seasons and how that fits into the league rankings.

In 2010, Marshall had a drop percentage of 8.5, which ranked 60th in the NFL that season. That means 59 receivers caught a higher percentage of the catchable passes thrown their way.

In 2011, Marshall's drop percentage was 6.9, ranking him No. 52 in the league.

In this case, the percentage confirms what the raw numbers suggest. Marshall's drops weren't only a function of his high involvement in the Miami Dolphins offense. He missed more catchable passes than dozens of other NFL receivers.

To be clear, that shouldn't take away from Marshall's accomplishments as one of the league's most productive receivers over that period. The percentages merely give us a broader view of his performance.


Matt of Appleton, Wis., is curious about the long-term salary cap implications of Detroit Lions receiver Calvin Johnson's new contract.

Kevin Seifert: Johnson signed what is technically an eight-year, $132 million deal. Deals that long often get restructured before the end, but usually teams at least leave the first three years intact before going back at it.

To that end, former agent Joel Corry provided a three-year cap breakdown for the National Football Post. The deal will count $11.5 million against the cap in 2012, $12.2 million in 2013 and $12.2 million in 2014, according to Corry.

It's never ideal to have a player count more than $10 million against the cap, especially in the case of the Lions, who have three players -- Johnson, quarterback Matthew Stafford and defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh -- who will always have high cap numbers because they were top draft picks under the previous NFL system for rookie contracts.

But remember, Johnson was going to count $22 million this season against the cap, and if he received the franchise tag, $26.4 million in 2013 and $31 million in 2014. Considered that way, his new cap charges seem quite reasonable.


Eric of Fariview Heights, Ill., isn't satisfied with our explanation for why the Minnesota Vikings didn't participate more actively in the opening days of free agency. Carl Nicks is 26 and probably if not absolutely is the best guard in the league. A five year deal helps Ponder and Peterson, neither of which are getting protected. Talks with an aged, twice injured TE is more important than a top WR signing? Explain! So we want Percy Harvin, John Carlson, and Kyle Rudolph clogging up the middle? Where is our deep threat? How can you write an article defending not going after Nicks, a top receiver, OR one of the top cornerbacks? I mean seeing how we've been HORRIBLE in the secondary... It's a joke. Let's hear the true talk on this inactivity please!?

Kevin Seifert: That's fair. First I'll give you a rundown of what I would guess the Vikings were thinking, and then I'll offer my own comments.

Six years ago, the Vikings signed Steve Hutchinson to the biggest contract for a guard in NFL history. Historically, however, NFL teams don't like to devote cap space to the guard position. There are too many instances of success when inserting younger, cheaper players into those jobs while spending your money on left tackle and center. Hutchinson, the Vikings thought then and now, was a once-in-a-generation player.

Rather than devoting $47.5 million to Nicks over the next five years, the Vikings figure they can move Charlie Johnson to left guard. Johnson signed a three-year, $10 million contract last summer. He might not perform to Nicks' level, but is the difference between Nicks and Johnson worth, say, twice or three times the salary cap space? The Vikings didn't think so.

The same goes for cornerback. The Vikings will get the promising Chris Cook back on the field in 2012, which is an automatic upgrade from what they finished with. I can only assume that they didn't think any of the cornerbacks available on the market, most notably Brandon Carr and Cortland Finnegan, were worth the $10 million annual salaries they eventually received.

As for Carlson, none of us can pretend to understand whether he is a risk for injury moving forward. Beyond that, the Vikings saw him as a polished 27-year-old pass-catcher who could make their offensive more dynamic. Does he solve all of their problems, including the deep threat issue? No. But that doesn't mean he can't help.

General manager Rick Spielman said last week that the team wasn't "one player away" from contending for the Super Bowl. That's one of the reasons the Vikings weren't more aggressive. A fair counterargument, of course, is this: What if they are? What if quarterback Christian Ponder develops quickly, and tailback Adrian Peterson returns to form and the offensive line improves with the presumed drafting of Matt Kalil?

In that case, the Vikings would be vulnerable in their otherwise unaddressed secondary, and a chance to have a better-than-expected season could be quashed. I'm fine with the Vikings sitting out the crazy receiver market. I do question if they're going to be able to field a competitive defensive secondary, but we'll withhold final judgment until the full players acquisition period is complete.


Grayson of Roseville, Calif., writes: Why wouldn't the Packers have made a play for Mario Williams? I know they don't often do anything in free agency but Williams seems too good to pass up, like Reggie White and Charles Woodson were. It makes so much sense!

Kevin Seifert: It makes sense from the standpoint of the Packers needing a pass rusher (or two) and Williams is the best pass rusher on the market. Williams has more experience as a 4-3 end rather than a 3-4 outside linebacker, but perhaps the idea of playing opposite Clay Matthews -- and the presumably favorable matchups that would go with it -- might have been enough to lure him to the Packers.

But as we noted during the week, the Packers aren't really in position to start handing out $100 million contracts to free agents -- at least, not if they plan to re-sign a trio of players who are in line for extensions. Matthews, receiver Greg Jennings and quarterback Aaron Rodgers could have their deals addressed in the next calendar year. I'm guessing the Packers prioritized them over any free agent.

With that said, it doesn't mean the Packers couldn't afford to investigate other free agent pass rushers. I wouldn't be opposed to them pursuing Kamerion Wimbley, whom the Oakland Raiders released Friday.
By this point, the Green Bay Packers' quiet approach to veteran free agency should surprise no one. We've had endless debates about the pros and cons of their philosophy, but in the spring of 2012, I think we should all have a clear understanding of the "why."

In the next 12 months or so, the Packers will face contract negotiations with three of the best players at their positions in the NFL. Receiver Greg Jennings is entering the final year of his contract, linebacker Clay Matthews has two years remaining on his rookie deal, and there is a general understanding that quarterback Aaron Rodgers has outperformed the contract he signed shortly after taking over as the Packers' starter in 2008.

Free agent activity this week has offered us a peak at the numbers the Packers likely will hear, and to no surprise, they're going to be high. Let's start with Jennings, who has to be smiling ear-to-ear after watching the money thrown at receivers this week.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers set the market for the top receiver available by signing Vincent Jackson to a five-year, $55 million deal with $26 million guaranteed. If Jennings were to hit the open market in 2013, he could reasonably expect Jackson's deal to serve as a baseline for negotiations.

Both players have been fortunate enough to play with elite quarterbacks and in steady passing offenses. As the chart shows, Jennings is a bit younger than Jackson, and has produced at a much higher rate over his career.

We'll set aside the $132 million contract of Detroit Lions receiver Calvin Johnson, as well as the $120 million deal Larry Fitzgerald signed last summer with the Arizona Cardinals. Both deals were inflated by unique forms of leverage that Jennings won't have access to.

Rodgers, meanwhile, is the reigning MVP and could expect a contract that comes close to the $18 million annual average the game's top quarterbacks -- including Tom Brady and Peyton Manning -- have received in recent deals. Ongoing negotiations between Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints could raise that level, but Brees has the leverage of an expired contract.

Regardless, you can do the math. Rodgers said in November that he wants his next contract to be his last. If the Packers want to sign Rodgers to a new, say, seven-year deal, the total value could surpass $125 million. Nothing crazy there when it comes to quarterback salaries.

Of the three, Matthews might be the most difficult situation to assess. His sack total fell from 13.5 in 2010 to six in 2011, but it's fair to consider him one of the NFL's better pass-rushers. The top available pass-rusher on the market this spring is defensive end/linebacker Mario Williams, who has reportedly agreed to a deal with the Buffalo Bills for $100 million over six years, with $50 million guaranteed.

So we can be conservative and suggest that the combined contracts of Jennings, Rodgers and Matthews could surpass $200 million. That should give you 200 million reasons why the Packers are laying low, at least at the moment.
We're Black and Blue All Over:

As an unrestricted free agent, tight end Kellen Davis had a chance to test his market value. He did just that, and after a trip to visit the Dallas Cowboys, Davis returned to the Chicago Bears with a two-year deal that will pave the way for him to become a significant factor in their passing offense.

The Bears have vowed to use the position more under new offensive coordinator Mike Tice, and coach Lovie Smith has been singing Davis' praises for years. Now, barring the Bears making an unexpected play at another veteran tight end, Davis has a great opportunity to prove he can be the two-way blocking-receiving tight end the Bears envision he could be.

Continuing around the NFC North:
  • The Bears think they can provide the right environment for receiver Brandon Marshall to succeed, writes Dan Pompei of the Chicago Tribune.
  • They're also hoping his story about Sunday's altercation in New York City holds up, writes Sean Jensen of the Chicago Sun-Times.
  • David Haugh of the Chicago Tribune spoke with Rasheedah Watley, Marshall's high school sweetheart who has a civil lawsuit pending against him. Watley: "Brandon thinks he can bash people and get away with it because he has gotten away with it so I don't see why he'd think he can't get away with it again."
  • Bears general manager Phil Emery has put his reputation on the line in this trade, writes Melissa Isaacson of ESPNChicago.com.
  • Drew Sharp of the Detroit Free Press on the Detroit Lions' monster contract agreement with receiver Calvin Johnson: "The Lions stood at the stake blindfolded, hoping the execution would be quick and painless. Guaranteeing $60 million for a wide receiver is a pretty big bullet, but the Lions had to take the hit. It would have been worse had they let these renegotiations linger, further bloating their salary cap while risking the ire of their lone genuine superstar and their long-suffering fans, who finally can see a little light after decades of darkness."
  • The Lions will host former San Diego Chargers left tackle Marcus McNeil on a visit beginning Thursday, according to Tim Twentyman of the team's website. They have also hosted receiver Ted Ginn Jr. and will host former Indianapolis Colts cornerback Jacob Lacey.
  • Johnson never considered walking away, writes Chris McCosky of the Detroit News.
  • The receiver market has grown nicely for Green Bay Packers receiver Greg Jennings, who has one year remaining on his contract. Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel explains.
  • Jennings is currently on a trip to Africa, writes Jason Wilde of ESPNMilwaukee.com.
  • There is no word on center Scott Wells' status with the Tennessee Titans, writes Pete Dougherty of the Green Bay Press-Gazette.
  • The felony strangulation case against Minnesota Vikings cornerback Chris Cook has gone to the jury, notes Dan Wiederer of the Star Tribune.
  • There is no standing offer to bring back Vikings linebackers Erin Henderson or E.J. Henderson, writes Tom Pelissero of 1500ESPN.com.
  • The Vikings persuaded new tight end John Carlson to leave Kansas City before taking a visit with the Chiefs, writes Jeremy Fowler of the St. Paul Pioneer Press.
We're Black and Blue All Over:

The Detroit Lions have a sticky situation in their offensive backfield. Their top two running backs, Jahvid Best and Mikel Leshoure, are working to recover from concussion and Achilles injuries, respectively. So should the Lions bank on their return for training camp this summer? Or should they acquire a contingency plan in the draft or in free agency?

Here is part of how Lions president Tom Lewand addressed the issue during a conference call Tuesday with season-ticket holders, via Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press: "You always have a little bit of risk any time a guy is coming off of injury, but we feel very, very good about where both of those guys are in their rehabilitation progress."

Lewand added: "We'll keep looking there, too. We can't necessarily put all our eggs in the basket of the guys that are coming off injuries. We have to make sure that we've got some depth there, and we'll look at free agency and the draft as well as trades, as well as waiver claims, as well as street guys to look at."

Lewand's answer hit every possibility, neither confirming nor ruling out anything, just as most team officials address personnel questions at this time of year. But in this case, the Lions truly need to consider every avenue to avoid getting caught flatfooted if Best or Leshoure, or both, have a setback.

Continuing around the NFC North:
We're going to get some mileage out of the research I did, and had forwarded to me, for our 2011 All-NFC North team. The first installment is left over from the debate that ultimately led me to choose Green Bay Packers receiver Jordy Nelson over the Minnesota Vikings' Percy Harvin.

[+] Enlarge
Percy  Harvin
Icon SMIPercy Harvin can do plenty of things on the field, as long as the Vikings have him on the field.
I checked out their playing time as part of comparing their production. As it turned out, Nelson and Harvin were on the field for almost exactly the same amount of time. Nelson played 609 snaps and Harvin 605. (All numbers in this post exclude penalties, which means they vary slightly from the figures we've used during the season.) The percentages of their team's total snaps were close as well: 58.9 for Nelson and 58.4 for Harvin.

That makes sense for Nelson, who was part of the NFL's deepest receiving corps. But I have a hard time understanding how Harvin -- by far the Vikings' best receiver in 2011 and one of their few playmakers -- was on the sideline for more than 40 percent of a mostly punchless team's snaps.

Across the NFL, 54 receivers played a higher percentage of their team's snaps than Harvin did. That includes teammate Devin Aromashodu, who eventually stepped into the starting lineup after Bernard Berrian's departure and Michael Jenkins' injury. Aromashodu caught 26 passes while playing on 674 snaps, 69 more than Harvin. (Tight end Visanthe Shiancoe led Vikings pass-catchers by playing 76.1 percent of the team's snaps.)

I think we all assumed that Harvin would be the Vikings' No. 1 receiver, and it was immediately surprising when he played about half of the snaps in the Vikings' first two games. At the time, coach Leslie Frazier said: "We have certain packages where we want to feature him, and not necessarily overuse him, but use him to help our football team."

Many of us dropped the issue given Harvin's season-long productivity, but in the end the Vikings finished the season with the NFL's fifth-fewest passing yards while their best receiver was on the sideline for 41.6 percent of their plays. That's hard to defend.

On the other hand, it's possible the Vikings believed Harvin would be more effective with managed snaps. He did, after all, catch a career-high 87 passes while rushing for 345 yards out of the backfield. The Vikings also had him as their primary kickoff returner on 30 of the kickoffs they faced.

Frazier denied during the season that his playing-time plan for Harvin was related to his migraine history, but it's worth noting that Harvin had no reported issues this season. Did the limited contact contribute to that? Assuming Frazier was being truthful, the two events were coincidental.

Regardless, in the big picture Harvin is too young to be on a pitch count. He won't turn 24 until May. It's true that he was managing a rib injury late in the season, but that doesn't account for 431 plays on the sideline. There is every reason to believe that Harvin could and should play at least as much as the No. 1 or No. 2 receivers on other teams.

For context, here are the NFC North receivers who played a higher percentage of snaps than Harvin in 2011:
Consider that Jennings played more snaps in 12 1/2 games before suffering a knee injury than Harvin did in 16. In the end, Harvin had the best year of his career when playing limited snaps. The Vikings must spend part of this offseason deciding if that was the reason, or if they artificially capped his production by overcompensating on his playing time.
Calvin Johnson and Aaron RodgersGetty ImagesCalvin Johnson, left, and Aaron Rodgers were easy picks for the All-NFC North team.
It took longer than expected. Preliminary decisions were questioned. Debates extended into the wee hours. We went through a first draft, then a second and even a third. Countless observers were consulted. It wasn't until I had a full week to mull the 2011 All-NFC North team that I was prepared to make the big reveal.

Via Twitter, @jpberthiaume asked: "Do people really care about these 'teams?'" I guess it's a fair point. I doubt few, if any, of the players listed in the chart wrote a fifth-grade essay about their plans to one day make the All-NFC North team on ESPN.com, even if it was only because the NFC North hadn't yet been formed in those days and ESPN.com was operating out of a Bristol-based closet.

So I'll let you be the judge. This is annually a fun exercise, even if it doesn't lead to a deep understanding of the human condition or even reveal any breakthroughs about the just-completed season. If nothing else, it offers us a blank template to recognize the best-performing players in the division without the hindrance of the politics and reputation.

Some notes on some of the tight decisions, for which I seriously received input from multiple angles:
  • One of the fiercest debates came at wide receiver. Everyone agreed that the Detroit Lions' Calvin Johnson deserved one spot, but there was a split about the other two. Did the Green Bay Packers' Greg Jennings, who missed three games because of a knee injury, deserve an automatic bid? And if he did, should the Packers' Jordy Nelson or the Minnesota Vikings' Percy Harvin get the third spot? I thought Jennings' 67 receptions, 949 yards and nine touchdowns in 13 games merited a spot. And ultimately I chose Nelson over Harvin. I realize Harvin caught 87 passes in a punchless offense and added 345 rushing yards to his total, but in the end I couldn't overlook a player who scored more touchdowns (15) than all but four players in the NFL this season. Plus, as Hatterbot pointed out: "Rushing yards don't count in the WR category."
  • I went with the Lions' Rob Sims at left guard in part on the advice of John McTigue of ESPN Stats & Information, who noted that Sims was the only NFC North left guard to play the position for 16 games this season. Sims also had the best pass-sack ratio (19.7 passes per sack) of the group, based on video study.
  • There is no doubt that the Lions' Brandon Pettigrew (83 catches) had a more productive season then the Packers' Jermichael Finley (55). But the Lions often used Pettigrew as a substitute for their punchless running game, and that's why his per-catch average of 9.4 yards was lower than any other tight end with at least 30 catches. According to ESPN Stats & Information, the average pass to Pettigrew this season traveled 6.5 yards in the air. The average pass to Finley traveled 11.4 yards. Finley caught five passes of at least 30 yards. Pettigrew's longest was 27. Both players had their share of drops, combining for a total of 15, but I thought Finley made a bigger impact on his catches than Pettigrew did.
  • I really debated the Bears' Julius Peppers and the Lions' Cliff Avril at defensive end. Avril (11.5) had a half-sack more than Peppers (11) and forced twice as many fumbles. But one of the advantages we have on this team is investigating beyond the conventional numbers. Our friends at Pro Football Focus (PFF) credited Peppers with 53 quarterback pressures, the second-highest total in the NFL. Avril ranked No. 8 with 37, but in a close race, I chose the maximum mumber of plays impacted over Avril's slight edge in "playmaking" statistics.
  • I used a similar approach in choosing the Vikings' Kevin Williams and the Lions' Ndamukong Suh as my defensive tackles. It's true that the Bears' Henry Melton led the NFC North's defensive tackles with seven pressures, but PFF had Suh with 27 quarterback pressures, an NFL high for an interior lineman. Williams tied for No. 3 with 25. Melton wasn't that far behind at 23, but I also took into account that the Bears nearly benched him for inconsistency at one point in the season. (Coach Lovie Smith in November: "He hasn't showed up as much. Whether teams have adjusted to him or whatever, we need to get more production from him because he's capable of it." Meanwhile, I thought Packers defensive lineman B.J. Raji took a step backward in 2011. PFF credited him with only 10 stops (the cumulative number of plays made that constitute an offensive failure) in 842 snaps.
  • If you want to say I chickened out at linebacker, go ahead. I originally left open the middle and one of the outside spots, but in the end I went with our division standbys: Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs. For starters, Briggs was one of six non-offensive linemen to play 100 percent of his team's snaps in the NFL this season. There's something to be said for being available to your team. And while I do think that the Packers' Desmond Bishop and the Lions' Stephen Tulloch had good seasons, I couldn't find a statistic or an opinion that convinced me they were better than Urlacher. Someday, there will be turnover among NFC North linebackers. But it didn't happen this season.
  • Safety play was poor throughout the NFC North, so I'm not at all ashamed to have chosen a third cornerback to replace one of the safeties on this team. It came down to the Lions' Chris Houston and the Packers' Tramon Williams. Both had their ups and downs in coverage. Houston had five interceptions and two touchdowns in 14 games, while Williams had four interceptions and one touchdown in 15 games. In the end, I chose Williams because I think it was pretty clear he was pushing through a really limiting shoulder injury for much of the first half of the season.
  • I chose the Packers' specialists, kicker Mason Crosby and punter Tim Masthay. Crosby converted 24 of 28 kicks, including a 58-yarder, and ranked third in the NFL with 49 touchbacks. Masthay downed a division-high 23 punts inside the 20-yard line despite a division-low 55 punts.
  • I mistakenly left off a coverage specialist from our original post. There should be no debating that the Bears' Corey Graham deserves that spot.
  • Go ahead. Rip away....
Coming later this week: Some supplementary NFC North awards, including our top coordinators.

Podcast: Packers WR Greg Jennings

February, 3, 2012
Feb 3
3:59
PM ET
Green Bay Packers WR Greg Jennings talks about the loss to the Giants in the playoffs and shares his advice for New England's receivers vs. the Giants defense. Who is Jennings' picks to win Super Bowl XLVI?

NFC North Pro Bowl roster

January, 28, 2012
Jan 28
12:00
PM ET
No, I didn't forget. The Pro Bowl will be played Sunday night, starting at 7 p.m. ET, in Honolulu. I can't say I plan to watch every down, but I know there are many who will.

By my count, 12 players from the NFC North will participate. Below is the full list of players from our division who were named, either originally or as injury/Super Bowl replacements, over the past few weeks.

Chicago Bears
Detroit Lions
Green Bay Packers
Minnesota Vikings

(Footnotes: *Starter; +Won't play; #Alternate/replacement)
Jennings
The Green Bay Packers' season came to a surprising conclusion last weekend at Lambeau Field. Players cleaned out their lockers Monday and have begun scattering across the country.

Receiver Greg Jennings will make a stop at ESPN in Bristol, Conn., this weekend to be a studio guest on Sunday NFL Countdown, airing from noon to 3 p.m. ET before the AFC and NFC Championship Games.

Jennings has a pretty humble personality relative to most NFL receivers, so I'm not sure if he is as well known around the country as others who play his position. But I've always found him to be thoughtful and always ready with an intelligent answer. Tune in Sunday to see for yourself.

Packers' offense drops the ball

January, 15, 2012
Jan 15
11:22
PM ET
Aaron RodgersAP Photo/Jeffrey PhelpsAaron Rodgers and Green Bay's offense could not get things going against the Giants.
GREEN BAY, Wis. -- The first inkling came on the Green Bay Packers' seventh offensive play Sunday. On third down from the New York Giants' 29-yard line, Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers did what he often does when a play breaks down. So did receiver Greg Jennings.

Rodgers stepped up in the pocket to escape Jacquian Williams, the Giants' blitzing linebacker. Jennings, in turn, took off toward the end zone. The Giants' secondary lost track of him. Jennings turned to look for the ball over his left shoulder. Rodgers threw it over his right. The ball fell incomplete at the 4-yard line, and the Packers settled for a field goal.

At that moment, I turned to someone in the press box and remarked how rarely we have seen the Packers miss easy touchdown opportunities during this historic season.

The Packers' season ended Sunday with an offensive thud, a 37-20 loss to the New York Giants that was wholly out of character and inexplicable on most every level. And I'm sure as you review how the Packers reached such an unsatisfying conclusion, some will recite a well-rehearsed litany of their season-long defensive problems. A few of you will wonder why Lambeau Field is no longer the greatest home-field advantage in NFL postseason history; the Packers are 2-4 in their past six playoff games there after winning 13 consecutively from 1939-2001.

But here, as they say, is the stone-cold truth: One of the most explosive and efficient offenses in NFL history -- the one that almost single-handedly was responsible for a 15-1 regular-season record -- stumbled at the starting line and never regained its footing. Credit goes to the Giants' defense for scheming to take away the deep pass, but independent of that, I think we can agree it's been a while since we've seen the Packers' offense play so poorly. ESPN Stats & Information had it with six drops, tied for the most by any NFL team in a game this season. The Packers committed a season-high four turnovers, including a fumble by Rodgers as he was trying to hit a wide-open Jennings in the third quarter. They had only two plays go for more than 20 yards, a 29-yard run by running back James Starks and a 21-yard pass to receiver Randall Cobb once the game was out of hand.

"This year," receiver Jordy Nelson said, "we've made the easy plays into big plays. And we didn't make the easy plays today. That's what hurts you. Every once in a while, you'll get a big shot, but if you can't make the easy plays, you aren't going to make any plays."

I couldn't have put it better if I tried. Why that happened, however, will be a mental mystery that will haunt the Packers all offseason.

How can you explain how a team that dropped 30 passes in 16 regular season games dropped six in one playoff game? What causes a team to commit four turnovers in one game when it had only 14 in the regular season? What made fullback John Kuhn fumble for the first time in his career? Why didn't Rodgers slide away from Giants defensive end Osi Umenyiora, as he usually does, on his third-quarter miscue?

"I ain't God, so I can't tell you why we were out of synch," tight end Jermichael Finley said. "We just didn't play our style of ball."

It would be easy to say the Packers were rusty after a playoff bye week. And I guess we should note that Rodgers hadn't played since Dec. 25 and Jennings since Dec. 11. Is it that simple? Were the Packers rusty? Perhaps, but at some point, you must wonder if we were holding them to an impossible standard.

What Sunday's mistakes told me was how much the Packers grew to depend on elite -- and not just great -- play from their offense on a weekly basis. The Packers were an elite team as long as their offense scored at a rate that left them with the second-highest point total in NFL history. But as soon as a few mistakes piled up, they got wiped out of the playoffs by a team that won its division with a 9-7 record.

"I felt like we had a pretty good rhythm," Rodgers said. "We moved the ball pretty effectively. We just had some drops and some uncharacteristic turnovers. … We just had some chances and didn't make the most of them."

None was more critical than Rodgers' misfire to Finley on third-and-five from the Giants' 39-yard line in the third quarter. With the Packers trailing 20-13, Finley ran a slant route and was wide open for a first down at about the 25-yard line. Rodgers threw him a fastball that sailed wide and off Finley's fingertips. Rodgers was sacked on fourth down, and the Packers never had an opportunity to tie the game again.

"I missed my spot a little bit," Rodgers said. Finley added: "It was out in front of me. I put one hand out. I tried to get it. I have to catch that ball …. It was one of those plays I couldn't make."

Those are the types of plays we grew accustomed to the Packers making this season, be it a sharp throw-and-catch on third-and-5 or an ad lib that leads to Jennings getting wide open in the end zone. To be sure, the Giants ran an aggressive scheme designed to take away their deep pass with "off" coverage but also flood intermediate routes with maximum coverage. Only eight of Rodgers' 46 attempts traveled 15 yards in the air, and he completed only two of them.

But regardless of the situation this season, the Packers have relied on their offense to bail them out. Even as they jogged off the field trailing 20-10 at halftime, there was no sense of panic.

"We thought going in with the way we'd be scoring on offense, the game wasn't that far away from us," said nose tackle B.J. Raji.

For the first time all season, however, the Packers offense dropped the ball -- and the Packers weren't a team equipped to compensate for it. We all know what happened. The Packers will spend the next six months figuring out the how and the why. But in the end, all they'll have to show for one of the greatest regular seasons in team history is one of their most surprising conclusions. Not everyone thought the Packers would repeat as Super Bowl champions, but I'm not sure many thought their offense would bring them down.
GREEN BAY, Wis. -- Some thoughts from a stunned Lambeau Field following the Green Bay Packers' 37-20 loss to the New York Giants:

What it means: The Packers saved their worst outing of the season for the playoffs, and it led to an unexpected and deeply disappointing end to a 15-1 season. The Giants outplayed them in every way imaginable, and the Packers didn't look much like a team that had won 21 of its previous 22. The result detracted again from the postseason mystique of Lambeau Field, where the Packers have now lost four of their past six playoff games. Two of those losses have been to the Giants, who also ended the Packers' 2007 season in the NFC Championship Game.

Rare mistakes: Quarterback Aaron Rodgers said during the week that he didn't believe in the concept of "rust" for a team coming off a playoff bye. Call it whatever you want. The Packers made mistakes that simply didn't happen during the regular season. Fullback John Kuhn lost the first fumble of his career. Rodgers missed receiver Greg Jennings for what would have been an easy touchdown in the first quarter. Rodgers also lost a fumble, on a second-quarter sack by Giants defensive end Osi Umenyiora, for the first time this season. The normally sure-handed Ryan Grant fumbled for only the second time this season in the fourth quarter. And depending on how tough of a grader you are, the Packers dropped anywhere from four to eight passes. One was a third-quarter pass to Jennings, who had a step on safety Antrel Rolle in single coverage in the end zone.

Defense tightens up: The big fear surrounding the Packers this season was that a hot quarterback would knock them and their porous pass defense out of the playoffs. Things seemed to be headed in that direction after Giants quarterback Eli Manning threw for 274 yards in the first half, capped by a 37-yard pass to receiver Hakeem Nicks on a Hail Mary. But it's going to be tough to affix too much responsibility to the defense for this game. The Packers tightened significantly in the second half, and the Giants didn't have a single first down in the third quarter. Manning threw for 56 yards in the second half. That should have given the Packers' offense enough of an opportunity to even up the game if it was up to it. It wasn't. They couldn't get the ball downfield at all against the Giants defense, and their longest play of the game was a 29-yard run by James Starks in the third quarter.

Key play: Backed by a bit of momentum and hoping to tie the game early in the fourth quarter, the Packers faced a third-and-five at the Giants' 39-yard line. Tight end Jermichael Finley was wide open at about the 25-yard line, but Rodgers' throw was just off his outstretched fingertips. It wasn't immediately clear whether Rodgers overthrew Finley or if Finley stopped his route early. But it was one of the Packers' biggest missed opportunities in this game. Rodgers was sacked on fourth down, and the Giants converted the ensuing possession into a 35-yard field goal to make it a two-score game midway through the fourth quarter.

Injury report: Kuhn didn't return after injuring his right knee in the third quarter.

What's next: The Packers have a young and deep team set up for long-term success. They'll need to address the contract situation of Finley, who is a pending free agent. It will take some time to get over Sunday's disappointment, but the Packers' future should be bright.

THE FOX RIVER VALLEY -- Good morning to everyone from the general vicinity of Green Bay and Lambeau Field, where the Green Bay Packers and New York Giants will play the NFL's final divisional playoff game of the weekend later Sunday afternoon. We have plenty to discuss today, starting with news that Packers offensive coordinator Joe Philbin appears likely to be at the game in some capacity.

Philbin was away from the team all week, as you know, after the death of his son, Michael. The funeral was Friday. Packers coach Mike McCarthy told Lesley Visser of CBS Sports that Philbin would be at Sunday's game "to participate."

Philbin typically works from the coaches' booth during games.

As we discussed Friday, I'm not sure whether the Packers will get a motivational boost from Philbin's tragedy, if it served as a distraction or if it will have no bearing on the outcome of Sunday's game. I'm guessing it's the final option, but we don't really have a precedent to work off of here.

A number of Packers players have said this game would be dedicated to the Philbin family. Saturday afternoon, Packers receiver Greg Jennings tweeted: "Game of emotions on Sun. Tweeps, need u all loud as u ever been when we take the field. Make this ur challenge. #BeGreat 4 coach Joe & his fam!"
We spent a fair amount of time during the regular season tracking how the Green Bay Packers utilized and implemented their stable of offensive skill players. As their postseason begins, now seems a good time to look at a few aspects and consider how they might impact Sunday's matchup against the New York Giants. Our friends at ESPN Stats & Information have been particularly helpful in that regard.

First, I want to pass along the final playing time numbers for the Packers' top six pass-catchers, figures that evened out a bit after receiver Greg Jennings sprained his knee and missed the last three games. Tight end Jermichael Finley was on the field more than any other Packers skill player, but Jennings' snap count was on the same level before his injury. Otherwise, the Packers distributed time on merit in a way that probably could have been predicted in the preseason.

(Hat tip to Katie Sharp for mining the database to find those numbers).

Rotating six skill-position players so aggressively led the Packers to use 237 different personnel groupings this season among their skill players, according to video tracking by John McTigue. That counts receivers, running backs and tight ends but doesn't reflect shuffling on the offensive line or at quarterback.

That total was the third highest number in the NFL. For context, consider that the Oakland Raiders led the NFL with 290 combinations and the Baltimore Ravens were last with 81. The league average was 157.

The Packers used so many different combinations that their most popular group was on the field together for only 117 plays, or 10.8 percent of their total offensive snaps. For those interested, that group included Jennings, Finley, Donald Driver, Jordy Nelson and James Starks.

The second chart breaks down the number of personnel groupings the Packers used in each game, from a high of 41 in a Week 5 victory over the Atlanta Falcons to a low of 23 in their relatively meaningless Week 17 victory over the Detroit Lions. So what does all of this mean, both in the big picture and for Sunday's game? A few thoughts:
  • The Giants didn't face many teams this season that mix things up the way the Packers do. When they did, they did not fare well. The Giants were 1-5 in games during the regular season when teams used 24 or more offensive personnel combinations. The Packers used a season high of 39 against them in a 38-35 victory in Week 13.
  • One advantage of changing personnel groupings is that it requires a longer scouting report and more studying of tendencies. Consider it this way: At any given time, the Packers could put one of 13 players on the field who has scored an offensive touchdown this season, including defensive lineman B.J. Raji but not backup quarterback Matt Flynn. That's a lot to think about.
  • To me, this is just another example of the innovation and flexibility coach Mike McCarthy wraps into his offense. Remember, last year at this time, we were discussing the wide spectrum he had established between five-receiver sets on one side and a heavy wishbone formation on the other.
  • It's amazing when you realize that Nelson caught the third-most touchdown passes in the NFL this season (15) while playing less than 60 percent of his team's offensive snaps.

We know that Jennings will be on the field a lot Sunday. The same goes for Finley and probably Nelson. After that, and in what combination, is anyone's guess. Which is just the way the Packers like it.

BBAO: January blog priorities

January, 9, 2012
Jan 9
7:15
AM ET
We're Black and Blue All Over:

Good morning. With three quarters of the NFC North now officially into their offseason, I thought it would be a good time to remind everyone of our priorities here on the NFC North blog. (Not that I don't expect and welcome your usual stream of suggestions, of course.)

We'll spend more time on playoff games than anything else. That means the percentages will shift a bit toward the Green Bay Packers until their season ends, whenever that may be. A good part of this week, then, will be about the Packers' upcoming divisional game against the New York Giants. Some of you might not be interested, but hang in there.

Our second priority is reacting to front office and coaching news. That means we'll keep a regular eye on the Chicago Bears' general manager search, the state of the Minnesota Vikings' defensive coaching staff and any changes that might occur for the Detroit Lions. The Vikings' stadium push will also be on our front burner.

Finally, when we have a chance, we'll circle back on some of our preseason themes to evaluate how they worked out.

For now, of course, let's take a morning spin around local coverage in the division:
  • Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: "The 2011 Packers don't have many reasons to dwell on the NFC Championship Game loss to the New York Giants four years ago, but they won't be able to avoid the growing sentiment that their upcoming divisional playoff game against the Giants is headed in the same direction."
  • The Packers knew they would face an opponent they had already played in the regular season. Rob Demovsky of the Green Bay Press-Gazette looks at whether that's an advantage.
  • Packers receiver Greg Jennings, appearing on ESPN 1050 in New York, chose his current quarterback (Aaron Rodgers) over his previous one (Brett Favre).
  • Minnesota lawmakers are increasingly telling the Vikings that their plan to build a stadium in suburban Arden Hills won't work, according to Baird Helgeson of the Star Tribune.
  • Vikings general manager Rick Spielman said that "nothing" is off the table in rebuilding the team, according to 1500ESPN.com.
  • Vikings coach Leslie Frazier will coach the North team at the Senior Bowl.
  • The Bears are considering two former coaches of quarterback Jay Cutler for their quarterbacks coach/passing coordinator job, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. They are Jeremy Bates and Jedd Fisch.
  • Sean Jensen of the Chicago Sun-Times wonders whether Giants college scouting director Marc Ross could emerge as a candidate for the Bears' general manager job.
  • It's possible the Bears will go with Jerry Angelo protégé Tim Ruskell for the job, writes Dan Pompei of the Chicago Tribune.
  • The New Orleans Saints had success Saturday night running at Lions defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, notes Justin Rogers of Mlive.com.
  • The Lions need to assess some of their shortcomings this offseason, writes Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press.
  • John Niyo of the Detroit News: "For the Lions, this season's success -- a 10-win campaign capped by the franchise's first playoff spot since 1999 -- can't be viewed as anything more than a first step. Not if they want to get where they're going."
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