NFC North: Gus Frerotte

StaffordJason Miller/Getty ImagesLions quarterback Matthew Stafford has looked poised for a breakthrough year this preseason.
The Fever is at its pitch. The Detroit Lions are 3-0 this preseason and defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh has bulled into the head (sometimes literally) of every quarterback he has faced. But for now, at least, I suggest you put Suh's newfound celebrity aside and consider the most important development for the Lions this summer.

Quarterback Matthew Stafford has arrived.

(Cue the "It's preseason for cripes-sakes, you hyperbolic two-bit blogger" response.)

I fully recognize Stafford hasn't done anything that counts in 2011. And yes, there is great danger in drawing dramatic conclusions from 31 preseason passes. But if you've watched those throws, and if you've seen Stafford running the offense in training camp, it's reasonable to consider him in a new light.

Does this mean Stafford will rank among the NFL's top 10 quarterbacks this season? You know how irrelevant I think such rankings are. To me, the important point is that Stafford can be the difference this season between an entertaining Lions team and a winning one.

With all due respect to Suh, only a quarterback can singularly impact a team's winning percentage. Some quarterbacks aren't up to it. This summer, Stafford has shown us he can be.

"It's hard because he's missed a lot of time on the field [in his first two seasons]," Lions offensive coordinator Scott Linehan said. "But you can see the ownership he's taken in this offense. ... It's not just me talking in the meeting rooms anymore. He's spot-on. He's going to have a great career, I really think."

Now in his third season with Stafford, Linehan should know. At every NFL stop, Linehan and his staff have coaxed substantial improvement even from established veterans. In his third year with the Minnesota Vikings, Linehan presided over quarterback Daunte Culpepper's 4,717-yard, 39-touchdown season in 2004. The following year, he resurrected veteran Gus Frerotte's career with the Miami Dolphins.

Now, Linehan appears to be putting the final touches on Stafford, whose development has been overshadowed by two well-chronicled years in injury rehabilitation. In both the preseason and in the training camp practices I covered, Stafford displayed a level of accuracy and confidence that comes only with multiple years in a good system.

That development has manifested during the games in this way: 24 completions in 31 attempts for 356 yards and five touchdowns. Stafford hasn't been intercepted and has a near-perfect 154.0 passer rating. He has looked as comfortable throwing touch passes into the back of the end zone, especially to receiver Nate Burleson, as he has in launching ropes to tight ends in the seam or aiming back-shoulder passes to receiver Calvin Johnson.


I've tried to provide some context for that preseason performance in the chart. It's important that you note I am not suggesting Stafford has risen into the stratosphere occupied by Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers. What I do want to note is that Rodgers annually has put up some inflated preseason numbers that have drawn attention and suggested he was on the cusp of greatness.

Rodgers, however, has never had a preseason as efficient as what Stafford has produced through three games.

"The only thing that has set Matthew back before this have been [the injuries]," Linehan said. "He's had his share of bad luck early on, and he needs to put that all behind him and not even think about it."

I'm guessing Stafford reached that point Saturday night, when the New England Patriots sacked him once and hit him on two other occasions. Most notably, Stafford absorbed a crushing hit from free-blitzing linebacker Jerod Mayo, resulting in a rare underthrow. But Johnson quickly adjusted to haul in a 30-yard reception.

Linehan said Stafford is a "really smart guy, even though he isn't one to tell you that." More than anything, when I sat with Stafford for a few minutes in training camp, I got a sense that Stafford has fully bought in to how successful he can be in this scheme with the skill players the Lions have surrounded him with. When he gets hit and can't follow through on a throw, for example, he knows he has players like Johnson who can make the adjustment.

"I love playing in this offense," Stafford said. "I'm a big fan. You've got answers versus everything, and [Linehan] gives a lot of control to the quarterback, which is fun for me and good for me. I know when I'm protected, I know when I'm hot, that kind of stuff. But we have the personnel to be really good. We've got three really good tight ends, four or five really good receivers. We have a lot of special talent."

Public discussion about Stafford naturally has centered on his injuries, mostly in the absence of any new developments on the field. I think we've seen enough this summer to move the conversation forward. It's time to start discussing Matthew Stafford in the context of his skills and performance. He has taken that step, and Lions are poised to follow him.

Why Brad Childress failed

November, 22, 2010
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ChildresAP Photo/Andy KingBrad Childress had a cold and distant relationship with his players even when the team was winning.
EDEN PRAIRIE, Minn. -- Five years ago, the Minnesota Vikings swept up Brad Childress during what they believed was a frenzied, multi-team competition for the man they considered the hottest coaching candidate on the market. They flew him into town less than 24 hours after firing Mike Tice and kept him sequestered in a Twin Cities hotel while they half-heartedly interviewed the remaining candidates on their list.

Owner Zygi Wilf triumphantly lauded Childress as a disciplinarian who would restore order to the franchise on and off the field. "Brad Childress is a winner," Wilf famously said.

But Wilf could never answer the follow-up question: How do you know?

At 49, Childress had never been a head coach at any level. He had been the offensive coordinator of the highly successful Philadelphia Eagles, but coach Andy Reid called almost all of the plays over that period. Childress' ability to relate with players was also a debatable proposition; among other stories, it was public knowledge that mercurial receiver Terrell Owens had asked Childress to stop talking to him during the 2005 season.

If I had to sum up why Childress failed in Minnesota, my tight answer would include those two reasons. He had a distant relationship at best with players, feuding with most key veterans at one point or another. And his schemes were uninspiring and rigid, routinely minimizing the skills of talented players.

Few coaches bring both of those disparate skills to the table, but having one can usually mitigate the need for the other. You can inspire players to excel by reaching them personally, or you can put them in position to play well with smart schemes that maximize their skills.

Childress, however, did neither consistently. It's true that his teams won consecutive NFC North titles, something that hadn't happened in Minnesota since 1977-78. But starting with his first season and continuing through those title years, we heard the same complaints about his program.

Veteran quarterbacks from Brad Johnson to Kelly Holcomb to Gus Frerotte chafed in an offense they believed could have been much better if allowed more in-game freedom. When Brett Favre brazenly freelanced last season, Childress angrily considered benching him.

That rigidity wasn't limited to quarterbacks, however. In 2006, Childress minimized receiver Marcus Robinson because his best route -- the fade in the end zone -- wasn't a part of his red zone offense. The scheme provided no avenue to get tailbacks Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor on the field at the same time.

If you searched hard enough, similar whispers could be heard before Childress' arrival. I doubt Wilf heard any of them. Why? His coaching search committee included no one with a football background. The primary interviewers were Wilf, his brother Mark, vice president of football operations Rob Brzezinski and vice president of operations Kevin Warren.

Brzezinski and Warren are experts in their fields, but neither was qualified to assess if Childress' football acumen was as good as advertised. It's almost as if they assumed it based on Childress' stature as a "hot" coaching candidate. I once asked a high-ranking team official this question: Whom did you use for the "football" portion of the interview, the part where Childress' schematic and actual coaching talents would be measured?

The answer?

Hall of Fame coach Bud Grant, who had been retired for 20 years. My understanding is that it was a cursory conversation, and it's interesting to note that Grant has always been silent about Childress and his performance.

Some successful coaches channel Bill Belichick, attempting to out-think and out-scheme opponents. Others emulate Bill Cowher, whose motivational skills kept his teams playing hard for more than a decade. Childress didn't fall in either category, and ultimately that's why his players turned on him this season. They felt neither inspired nor challenged.

Childress began clashing with players on a personal level early in his first season, starting with cornerback Antoine Winfield, and even in the best of times had what players described as a cold and distant relationship.

Without a foundation of trust and loyalty, Childress watched as his players reached near-mutinous levels at the first sign of adversity this season. It led to a confrontation with receiver Percy Harvin, among many other incidents. It all culminated Sunday when the Vikings sideline fell into chaos during a 31-3 loss to the Green Bay Packers. It's rare when you see a coach keep his job under those conditions.

Childress did make a positive impact in many areas of the organization, cleaning up his team's off-field behavior and professionalizing the team's organizational culture. But without a so-called hook to hang his hat on -- an attribute that could help him navigate tough waters -- he ultimately failed.

Frazier's impact runs deep on Vikings

January, 19, 2010
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Leslie FrazierAP Photo/Nati HarnikLeslie Frazier has overseen some of the league's best defensive units.

On Sunday, Minnesota coordinator Leslie Frazier’s defense produced the most dominating performance of the NFL playoffs. Monday, rumors emerged that Frazier had been passed over for another head coaching job -- the seventh such instance in the past three years.

And on Tuesday it became official: Buffalo hired coaching retread Chan Gailey to replace the fired Dick Jauron. Frazier interviewed two weeks ago for the job, but the Bills reportedly preferred a candidate with an offensive background. Unless another job opens this offseason, Frazier will remain the NFL’s most qualified head-coach-in-waiting.

In a league that covets hot coordinators, it’s difficult to understand why Frazier has yet to take that final step. He has overseen a defense that finished among the NFL’s top 10 for consecutive seasons, the first time that’s happened for the Vikings in nearly two decades, and has classic head-coaching credentials with Super Bowl championships as a player (Chicago, 1986) and assistant coach (Indianapolis, 2006).

Former Colts coach Tony Dungy, in fact, is said to consider Frazier his likely head coach if he re-joins the NFL as a team president. Until then, however, the Bills’ loss is the Vikings’ gain. Frazier said recently he has too much on his plate to be either disappointed or to be anticipating his next opportunity.

“I’d like to get a third ring,” he said, “and it’s not hard for me to move on beyond that. It’s not hard at all. I promise you. These opportunities are so rare in the National Football League for players and coaches and for me. Just to be in this situation and know that we’re just a couple games from reaching our goal as a team, no, it’s not hard.”

Frazier will spend Tuesday crafting a game plan for the NFC Championship Game, one he hopes will slow down New Orleans the way his team dismantled Dallas last Sunday. The Vikings’ “Maul of America” defense (Thanks!) held the Cowboys to a season-low in points (three), yards (248) and first downs (16) in a 34-3 victory at the Metrodome.

While Frazier works out those details, let’s take a moment to understand how he’s impacted the Vikings' run to the brink of Super Bowl XLIV.

Subtle scheming

Sometimes I think the perception of Frazier’s role gets diminished in the star power of Minnesota’s personnel. The Vikings, after all, have an elite defensive line and, when healthy, one of the league’s best cornerbacks in Antoine Winfield.

And it’s true: Frazier makes no attempt to be a mastermind schemer, the type that plays a 4-3 one week and a 1-5 the next. The Vikings mostly employ Cover 2 in the back end and occasionally mix in a blitz. This season, according to ESPN Stats & Information, the Vikings sent at least one additional pass-rusher on 30.1 percent of their defensive snaps. That figure was the 10th-lowest in the NFL.

“The key is small menu, big understanding [from players],” coach Brad Childress said. “That is the thing we pride ourselves on.”

Still, Frazier’s strategic fingerprints can be seen if you look closely enough. Last season, he made a subtle change in the way his defensive backs lined up pre-snap during a game at Arizona. The shift befuddled Cardinals quarterback Kurt Warner, who threw an interception, took four sacks and finished with a 78.9 passer rating in the Vikings’ 35-14 victory.

Against the Cowboys, Frazier extended the Vikings’ time window for getting lined up before the snap to enhance their ability to disguise coverages. According to several players, Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo repeatedly waited for the Vikings to “show” before typically snapping the ball in frustration and panic. Romo committed three turnovers in the game.

“Our coaches did a great job of getting us ready for this game,” Winfield said. “We knew what they were going to do more than [the other way around].”

Assisting the head coach

Childress made Frazier his assistant head coach in 2008 after he made positive impressions during job interviews with Miami and Atlanta. That title is typically ceremonial, but Childress leans on Frazier for advice and counsel more than you might realize.

When the Vikings were having trouble signing a veteran quarterback to pair with Tarvaris Jackson two years ago, Childress honed in on the nearly-retired Gus Frerotte. Before pursuing him, however, Childress asked Frazier to evaluate game tape to determine whether Frerotte’s arm strength made him a viable candidate for the job. Frazier concurred, and Frerotte led the Vikings to an 8-4 record as a starter last season.

Childress and Frazier can occasionally be seen huddling on the sidelines prior to a significant game management decision. And when Childress was recruiting Brett Favre last spring, he sent Frazier to Mississippi for a quiet one-on-one meeting with Favre. It isn’t often that a defensive coordinator gets involved in signing free agent quarterbacks, but at the time Frazier said: “It was to answer any questions he had, and for him to hear from a different voice, that wasn't offensive-oriented and could come at him from a different slant and try to convey to him a different message.”

Handling adversity

The Vikings were the NFL’s sixth-ranked defense in each of the past two years despite losing middle linebacker E.J. Henderson to season-ending injuries. Frazier navigated the loss by elevating a backup (Napoleon Harris in 2008, Jasper Brinkley in 2009) but shifting play-calling duties to outside linebacker Ben Leber.

Winfield, meanwhile, missed six games because of a sprained foot and was not 100 percent upon returning last month. After watching Winfield struggle to chase receivers for two games, Frazier made the difficult decision to shift him to nickel back and use Benny Sapp as his starter on the outside.

It all came together Sunday at the Metrodome, where the Vikings defense turned in a performance better than any other this season.

“We’ve had some good outings on defense,” Frazier said. “But the setting and the scenario made this the best. … A lot of things went right. You want it to go right another week, and then another week, and then we’ll be some pretty happy dudes.”

Head coach or otherwise.

Finding meaning in Favre-Childress spat

December, 27, 2009
12/27/09
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Brad Childress and Brett FavreUS PresswireLast week may have been a pivotal point for Brad Childress, Brett Favre and the 2009 Vikings.
The theater was entertaining. But ultimately, it was a sideshow. Many of us enjoyed suggestions of a conflict between Minnesota coach Brad Childress and quarterback Brett Favre. It makes for good blog material, if nothing else. In reality, however, we should be more interested in the subtext.

Namely: Was this episode the smoking gun -- proof that the Vikings’ great gambit won’t work? Did it signify that the flash Favre added this season won’t be enough to carry Minnesota through the regular season and into the playoffs?

There exists some compelling evidence to support that suggestion, with more potentially on the way Monday night (ESPN, 8:30 ET) when the Vikings visit Soldier Field. The Vikings have lost two of their past three games as Favre’s performance took a notable dip. One wrong move -- namely, a loss in either of their final two games -- would threaten their season-long hold on the NFC’s No. 2 playoff seed.

And to get himself back on track, Favre will have to win a cold-weather road game for the first time in five years. That’s right. Favre has lost his past seven road games when the game-time temperature was below 38 degrees, most recently Dec. 20 at Carolina. Through coincidence or otherwise, that streak is a piece of the tapestry Favre carried with him to Minnesota, a pattern that has fans and some inside the organization concerned.


I think it’s too early to start drawing conclusions about what this means for Favre and the Vikings next season. Even if there had been no dust-ups, Favre’s return in 2010 was far from a sure thing.

But I do believe we reached a pivot point for 2009 last week, one way or the other. Either we saw a crack in the foundation of the Vikings' season, or witnessed the cold shower that will set them back on a course for Super Bowl contention.

“We’re not going to let this thing stop us,” Childress said, “from getting where we want to go. That’s rare when you’re in the last couple of games of the season … and still be able to reach all the goals that you set in the beginning of the year.”

Is he right? On what ground do Favre, Childress and the Vikings stand at this moment? Let’s look at evidence from both sides.

They’re cooked

Perhaps the biggest question remaining after Favre arrived is whether he would coexist professionally with Childress, who had demonstrated an exceptionally rigid commitment to his offensive scheme and left a number of frustrated veteran quarterbacks in his wake.

In 2006, Brad Johnson noted that he and Childress “never talk” about game-planning issues. In 2007, Kelly Holcomb was baffled when plays were called during games that he had never run in practice. In 2008, Gus Frerotte openly lamented the minimal number of audibles he was allowed to use.

So as Favre raced into MVP contention this season, the assumption was that Childress had relented and allowed Favre the freedom he needed to excel. That conclusion seems premature, based on the stories that surfaced last week detailing at least four instances when Childress so disapproved of a Favre decision that he considered benching him.

Most alarming for the Vikings, Favre said last week that he has been less assertive in changing plays than ever. So he’s clashing with Childress for changing plays at a frequency much lower than his usual approach?

“This year, probably more so at any other time in my career, I’ve tried to play it exactly the way we want to play it,” Favre said.

But in an issue independent of freedom within the offense, Favre’s performance has undeniably slipped beginning with the Vikings’ Week 13 loss at Arizona. Following a post-Week 12 pattern that dates to 2005, Favre has thrown more interceptions (four) than touchdown passes (three), and finished with passer ratings under 80 in each of his past three games.

The slip hasn’t been as dramatic as in recent years, and it’s hard to imagine the Bears’ depleted defense putting up too much of a fight Monday night. But the pattern at least gives reason for pause when considering the game-time temperature is forecast for under 30 degrees at Soldier Field.

They’re stronger

The Vikings’ confidence in their passing game reached an all-time high in Week 12, when Favre passed on 46 of the Vikings’ first 65 plays in a 36-10 victory over Chicago. At that moment, their offense seemed to transition from an emphasis on tailback Adrian Peterson to Favre.

That the Vikings lost two of their next three games might not be a coincidence, and if anything positive came of this week’s episode, it was an agreement from both Childress and Favre that Peterson should be the primary focus on the offense.

“I know our offense starts with Adrian Peterson and that’s where it ends,” Favre said, “and we have to get that back on track.”

There is an old adage about quantity of running plays being more important than quality, and it’s one Childress mentions often. As constructed, his offense would work best with Peterson providing the base and Favre feasting on play-action.

It’s no surprise that Favre has the NFL’s third-best rating on play-action passes, according to ESPN’s Stats & Information. Unless the Vikings fall behind early Monday night, it would be shocking to see them repeat their play selection from last month’s game against Chicago. The Bears should prepare for a heavy, heavy dose of Peterson -- who has rushed for 345 yards and five touchdowns in two career games at Soldier Field.

A rebalanced offense, centered on Peterson but capable of the big passing strike, is a better formula to lead the Vikings through the playoffs. Will it work out that way? Or did the Vikings peak too early this season? As we like to say, tune in to ESPN’s "Monday Night Football" to find out.

FavreWatch: Important context in feud

December, 23, 2009
12/23/09
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EDEN PRAIRIE, Minn. -- Context is important when it comes to player-coach conflicts in the NFL. One dust-up could be an aberration, the result of two uniquely incompatible people. If it happens a second time, you start wondering. Three? Now you’re talking about a trend.

[+] Enlarge
Brad Childress
Scott Boehm/Getty ImagesQuarterbacks in Brad Childress' offense have indicated they didn't have much freedom within the system.
So let’s call a spade a spade: The issues spelled out in Ed Werder’s news story Wednesday have been apparent in Minnesota’s offense throughout coach Brad Childress’ tenure with the team. It was clear in 2006, for instance, that veteran quarterback Brad Johnson had limited influence on the scheme and almost no flexibility to alter plays. In a particularly frustrating moment, Johnson said he and Childress “never talk” about substantive issues relating to the offense.

In 2008, quarterback Gus Frerotte openly lamented the few times he felt comfortable calling an audible. Speaking to the St. Paul Pioneer Press this summer, Frerotte said he “basically had to run whatever they called.”

Wednesday, Werder reported that Favre had experienced similar issues since joining the Vikings. And while insisting they had put aside the differences that spilled over Sunday night in Carolina, neither man denied the central issue of the other’s involvement in administering the offense.

Childress said that a quarterback who makes “five checks in a game or six checks in a game” has gone overboard. He added: “Typically the idea with a quarterback in this offense, you’re not going to the line of scrimmage looking to change the play. Because then you end up seeing ghosts.”

He praised Favre for the time he spends studying film but noted, “I’d be lying to you if I told you he spends more time than [coaches] do.” I took that as a nice way of saying that coaches have final say.

For his part, Favre said there are “times that I see things that maybe I feel like we could get to. Or a change maybe at the line of scrimmage I could get to. And as I’ve told [offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell] and I’ve told Brad, and I think anyone that’s ever played the game, we all think we know it all at some point. And I know that’s not the case.”

During his Wednesday news conference, Favre spoke often about his relationship with Bevell and said they are in constant communication. Asked about Childress, Favre was a bit more careful. “In the end,” he said, “it’s about winning. And we can’t lose sight of that.”

More than anything, I think this episode has reinforced some of the issues many of us have observed and suspected for years: Playing quarterback for Childress in this offense isn’t easy. It requires a certain acceptance of subordination to its concepts and administration, even if you’re a seasoned veteran with Super Bowl trophies on your mantle. Favre is only the latest quarterback to make that discovery.

Top 5 Metrodome (football) moments

October, 2, 2009
10/02/09
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Posted by ESPN.com’s Kevin Seifert


To coincide with an ESPN.com project on the Minnesota Twins’ departure from the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome, here are my top five football moments from the 27-year-old building:

Date: Sept. 26, 1993
We’ll call it: McMahon to Who?
What happened: With six seconds remaining, anonymous receiver Eric Guliford gets wide open against Green Bay and hauls in a 45-yard pass from Vikings quarterback Jim McMahon. The play sets up Fuad Reveiz for a 22-yard game-winning field goal. It’s Guliford’s only catch of the season.

K.C. Alfred/Union-Tribune/Getty Images
Adrian Peterson broke the single-game rushing record in his rookie season.
Date: Jan. 17, 1999
We’ll call it: Dancing the Dirty Bird
What happened: The best team in Vikings regular-season history gets upset in its march to the Super Bowl. The heavily favored Vikings lose to Atlanta on Morten Anderson’s field goal in overtime.

Date: Nov. 4, 2007
We’ll call it:
All Day’s Day
What happened:
Rookie tailback Adrian Peterson, nicknamed “AD” for “All Day,” sets an NFL record by rushing for 296 yards in a victory over San Diego. The record still stands.

Dates: Jan. 3, 1983. Nov. 30, 2008. Nov. 4, 2007.
We’ll call it: The Long and Long of It
What happened: On those respective dates, the Metrodome serves as the site of the longest run in NFL history, the longest pass (tie) in NFL history and the longest overall play in NFL history. Dallas tailback Tony Dorsett ran 99 yards in 1983, Vikings receiver Bernard Berrian caught a 99-yard pass from quarterback Gus Frerotte in 2008, and Chargers cornerback Antonio Cromartie caught a missed field goal and returned in 109 yards for a touchdown in 2007.

Date: Oct. 15, 1989
We’ll call it:
Herschel Outruns His Shoe
What happened:
On his first play from scrimmage following a franchise-altering trade, tailback Herschel Walker darts 47 yards -- the last 15 without a shoe. It is the longest run for the Vikings in two years, and unfortunately for them, one of the few highlights Walker produced in his Minnesota tenure.

A banner summer in these parts

September, 8, 2009
9/08/09
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 Getty Images
 Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler (l-r) should help provide plenty of offense this season in the NFC North.

Posted by ESPN.com’s Kevin Seifert


In Green Bay, cornerback Charles Woodson says “we’ve got a chance to win the whole thing.” Down the road in Chicago, receiver Rashied Davis suggests the Bears “have got enough to win a Super Bowl.” Across Lake Michigan, Detroit coach Jim Schwartz insists that his team -- which has lost 22 of its past 23 games -- will “compete” this year.

Optimism is never higher than in Week 1 of the NFL season, when teams are healthy and everyone has the same record. But there is an edge these days to the confidence that seems pervasive in the NFC North as the 2009 season approaches. A historic offseason, followed by a preseason in which all four division teams finished 3-1, has given way to the most anticipated regular season in the middling eight-year history of the NFC North.

“This is the division to beat,” said Minnesota tight end Visanthe Shiancoe, not to be verbally outdone. “I feel like this Black and Blue division is really coming to light. You’ve seen the Bears play [well], I see the Packers are playing [well]. Even the Lions are starting to get it together. We’ll be battling amongst each other, but I feel like we’re going to be the team to beat.”

Minnesota, of course, added quarterback Brett Favre to a team that finished 10-6 last season with Gus Frerotte and Tarvaris Jackson sharing the position. Chicago acquired Pro Bowl quarterback Jay Cutler, believing he could add a few more victories to their 9-7 team. Green Bay shook up its defense and, more importantly, displayed what might have been the NFL’s sharpest offense during the preseason (nine touchdowns in 13 possessions.) And Detroit brought in an NFL-high 31 new players, reason in itself to believe that (modestly) better times are on the horizon after its 0-16 season.

From an early-September perspective, it all adds up to the reasonable expectation that at least one, and possibly both, NFC wild cards will come from the NFC North. Suffice it to say, that’s never happened for the Black and Blue since the NFL realigned in 2002.

Over the ensuing seven seasons, the NFC North has boasted of only one wild-card team: Minnesota, which backed in with an 8-8 record in 2004. Otherwise, the annual division champions have been the only playoff teams. We’ve never had a season that finished with three winning teams, and in four of the seven years, only one team has ended with a winning record.
NFC North: 2002-08
• Seasons: 7
• Teams with winning records: 10 (in 28 opportunities, or 36 percent)
• Total playoff berths: 8
• Wild cards: 1 (Minnesota, 2004)
• Playoff record: 5-8


Many of us would be shocked if that were the case in 2009. While I agreed with this ESPN.com consensus that Minnesota will win the division, followed by Green Bay and Chicago, I picked both the Packers and Bears to clinch wild cards. I haven’t examined the tiebreakers enough to know how possible that is, but hey, after this offseason I’m feeling cocky, too. I think you’ll also be pleasantly surprised when the first edition of ESPN.com’s regular-season power rankings are revealed later Tuesday. (Tease: Three NFC North teams are within striking distance of the top 10.)
Seifert NFC North picks, 2009
1. Minnesota
2. Green Bay*
3. Chicago*
4. Detroit

*Wild-card berths


For a bit of rational perspective, I went to one of the NFC North’s elder statesmen. Minnesota place-kicker Ryan Longwell’s tenure dates B.N. -- before the North -- and back to the days of the old NFC Central. Longwell recalled his 1997 season in Green Bay, when four Central teams (including Tampa Bay) finished with winning records and made the playoffs.

(Only the 4-12 Bears were left out of the fun. The Packers won the NFC but lost to Denver in Super Bowl XXXII.)

“We had a deep division that year,” Longwell said, “and I think you can see that potential this year as well. With the Packers changing their defense, and Cutler going to Chicago, and then the offseason we had, it’s definitely amped up the competition. We’ve typically just had one team at the top and everyone else fighting it out. We’ve been respected as a competitive division, but I think we’re a lot closer to [big-time] than we’ve been in a while.”

Before we start booking Miami hotels for Super Bowl XLIV -- well, before you do, because I already have -- we should take a moment to temper ourselves.

The Packers’ new defense is far from a finished product. It forced a turnover every 20 plays during the preseason, but frankly, a blitzing defense should catch offenses flat-footed in the preseason before actual game planning occurs. Moreover, much of the Packers’ preseason buzz is based on an offense that really wasn’t to blame for last season’s 6-10 record.

Indeed, Packers coach Mike McCarthy noted that “preseason football is different.” But McCarthy added: “Our football team played very good football for a big part of the preseason, and that’s the reality of where we are.”

Still, like everyone else, the Packers are now 0-0 and will face an opponent that will actually scheme to stop them Sunday night at Lambeau Field. But the Bears’ defense might not have kept pace with the division-wide improvement in the passing game -- let alone the Packers’ explosive group. It’s still not clear where their pass rush will come from, if not with the blitz, and injuries have thrown their secondary into uncertainty and raised questions about whether they can hold up if linebackers are forced to rush rather than help cover.

And in Minnesota, the reality is that Favre has been with the team for 22 days. He didn’t play a preseason down with his No. 1 receiver, Bernard Berrian, and recently suggested his timing would be a work in progress “up until the last game” of the season.

But those issues are micro problems in a macro environment of high expectations. There have been years when we’ve debated whether the Vikings had a starting-caliber quarterback, not picked at his timing with an injured receiver. We’ve entered seasons unaware if the Packers knew it was legal to blitz the quarterback, not wondering how their packages might be game planned against. And there have been seasons when the Bears didn’t have the luxury of depending on their offense to help cover for defensive shortcomings.

All told, we’ve never seen anything like it. At least not in these parts.

Jackson knows where he stands

July, 31, 2009
7/31/09
3:29
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Posted by ESPN.com's Kevin Seifert

MANKATO, Minn. -- One thing is clear about Tarvaris Jackson: He isn't pouting after an offseason in which his team nearly signed a new starting quarterback. Jackson was his usual even-keeled self as Minnesota took the practice field for the first time Friday morning. Afterwards, he insisted he had been through too many ups and downs in his short career to allow the Vikings' pursuit of Brett Favre to upset him.

 
  AP Photo/Jim Mone
  Tarvaris Jackson's familiarity with the Vikings' offense has given him an edge over Sage Rosenfels.

"I went through it last year," Jackson said. "It wasn't any different."

Indeed, the Vikings benched him after two games last season and named Gus Frerotte their permanent starter. Jackson eventually reclaimed the job after Frerotte injured his back, but the episode left Jackson and many other observers wondering whether he would ever develop into the Vikings' long-term starter.

I can't tell you that he is any closer to claiming that status after watching a typical Jackson performance Friday morning: A few ropes mixed in with some one-hoppers. But I can tell you Jackson has a sophisticated and, I think, accurate sense of where he stands with the organization: He knew he didn't have the team's full confidence before the Favre pursuit began, not because of it.

"It wasn't a celebration [when Favre declined the Vikings' overtures] as everyone was trying to make it," Jackson said. "I just want to come out here and work hard regardless of who is here."

The Vikings have been grooming Jackson since 2006, but injuries and poor performance have left him unable to complete a full NFL season. You'll be hard-pressed to find many people in the NFL who believe he can be a long-term starter, especially after coach Brad Childress -- his primary backer -- spent three months recruiting an alternative. Suddenly, Jackson is in the final year of his rookie contract and probably down to his last chance.

"He has some pretty good calluses built up," Childress said. "You get that way as a quarterback. It's high highs and low lows. And usually the highs aren't as high as the lows are low. But you've got to be able to take that as a quarterback. You know what? He does pretty well with that."

For what it's worth, I'd say Jackson has entered camp a bit ahead of competitor Sage Rosenfels, who still seems to be playing catch-up after arriving in a March trade. Receiver Bobby Wade said Rosenfels is "a slight step behind" because of Jackson's familiarity with the offense, and I think Rosenfels now understands that Minnesota's West Coast offense isn't as similar as he might have thought to the version he ran in Houston.

"A lot of the language is similar," Rosenfels said. "It would be like two people reading books. If it's in English, it's much easier to read and make sense out of it all. But there are a lot of differences, in my opinion, between this offense and the Houston offense."

Even Childress noted there is a bit of separation between the two from "the familiarity standpoint."

Said Childress: "Tarvaris has been through training camp and he has been through the installations more than Sage has. He probably has a little better understanding when we start, but Sage ... will get up to speed very quickly."

I'm heading out to the Vikings' second practice in a bit and then will bring you some non-quarterback thoughts -- and a division-wide roundup by early this evening.

NFC North blogger Kevin Seifert previews the upcoming season.

Posted by ESPN.com's Kevin Seifert

Thanks to everyone who participated in our weekly chat at our new Bat-day and new Bat-time. As it turned out, the schedule was quite fortuitous and made me look especially insightful.

It started with this exchange:

Andrew NJ: Hey Kevin, what do you think will most likely happen with Minnesota this year at Quarterback, and what are possible additional free agents they may add when free agency opens.

SportsNation Kevin Seifert: (1:02 PM ET ) Andrew, the most likely scenario is Tarvaris Jackson and either Gus Frerotte or another veteran competing for the starting job. Jackson would have the upper hand in that battle because he ended 2008 as the starter. There are other possibilities, but that one seems the most likely to me.

And turned midway on this one:

Brett (Houston, TX): So says the Houston Chronicle: http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/6276358.html Any truth to that? Sage Rosenchoppa/Rosenfels to the Vikings?

SportsNation Kevin Seifert: (1:44 PM ET ) I take that back. Wow. That comes as a surprise to me. A couple things jump out to me. The fact that he is available this year, and wasn't last year, suggest the Texans aren't as high on him. Rosenfels had a pretty uneven peformance last year.

But this doesn't change the overall picture. Rosenfels, I presume, will fill the Frerotte role and compete with Tarvaris Jackson in training camp. Tarvaris will be the favorite in that competition.

Yes, we had significant NFC North news break while we were chatting: According to John McClain of the Houston Chronicle, Minnesota is close to acquiring Texans backup quarterback Sage Rosenfels for a fourth-round pick.

The trade can't be official until the new league year opens at the end of this week, so we're not likely to hear official comment from either team until then. But here are my initial thoughts:

  1. Friday, Vikings coach Brad Childress said he wanted to create a quarterback competition that would include Tarvaris Jackson and someone else. His first option was Gus Frerotte. It's not clear what happened between then and now. But in my view, Rosenfels replaces Frerotte as Jackson's veteran challenger if this trade is finalized.
  2. In my view, it would be naïve to consider Jackson anything other than the favorite heading into training camp for all the same reasons that we discussed last week. If all things are equal, Jackson wins the job. Rosenfels wins only if he is lights-out or if Jackson falls on his face.
  3. The Vikings couldn't pry Rosenfels away from the Texans last year when they offered a third-round pick. The fact that he's available for a fourth-rounder a year later illustrates Houston's altered view of his value.
  4. We had a fair amount of discussion about a smokescreen last week. Here's what I'll allow: Childress might have exaggerated his enthusiasm about Frerotte returning, but the essence of his message was forthright: He wants a competition between Jackson and a veteran. I would categorize Rosenfels, who turns 31 next month, as a younger Frerotte. He has started 12 games in eight years.

We'll have more as the day and week moves on.

Posted by ESPN.com's Kevin Seifert

 Jackson

As you might recall, Minnesota coach Brad Childress indicated last week that he would like for Tarvaris Jackson and Gus Frerotte to compete for the Vikings' starting quarterback job in training camp. Childress noted that it can take four years for a quarterback to develop into a bona-fide starter, suggesting he believes Jackson is ready to make the final step in 2009.

Armed with that news and context, Ryan McCrystal of ESPN Stats & Information went searching for similar scenarios in recent years to help determine Jackson's chances for success. One way to measure that likelihood is to look for trends among highly-drafted quarterbacks with performances similar to Jackson's in their first three seasons.

Jackson, a second-round pick in 2006, has a 10-9 career record as a starter. Ryan found eight quarterbacks drafted who had 10 or less victories in their first three seasons as a starter after being drafted in the first or second rounds between 1997-2006. Two of them, New Orleans' Drew Brees and Washington's Jason Campbell, have gone on to become permanent starters. Here's the full list:

Player Team Record as a starter in first three seasons
Tarvaris Jackson Minnesota 10-9
Matt Leinart Arizona 7-9
Jason Campbell Washington 8-12
Drew Brees San Diego 10-19*
J.P Losman Buffalo 8-16
Patrick Ramsey Washington 9-14
Akili Smith Cincinnati 3-13
Ryan Leaf San Diego 4-14
*Signed with New Orleans in 2006.

If you were judging strictly by this list, in which two of the other seven quarterbacks experienced success, you would say Jackson has a 29 percent chance of making it work in 2009. It's not nearly that simple, of course. But if you're someone who likes to know how things have happened in recent history, Ryan has given you an interesting interpretation.

Debunking the conspiracy theory

February, 21, 2009
2/21/09
10:55
AM ET
Posted by ESPN.com's Kevin Seifert

INDIANAPOLIS -- Ryan of Minneapolis voiced a common refrain from readers in the wake of Friday's post about Minnesota's plans for quarterbacks Tarvaris Jackson and Gus Frerotte.

(To review, coach Brad Childress suggested that his top scenario is for Jackson and Frerotte to compete for the starting job in training camp.)

Kevin -- Does it ever occur to you that possibly Chilly and [Vikings vice president Rick] Spielman are simply playing a little possum? What advantage (I would love just one that you can come up with) would there be in sharing right now that you would like to move in a different direction at QB? Both from a free agent and trade scenario that would simply be ammo that the other side would have to get you to pay or give up more for a QB. I think you are really going to look foolish in about a week when the Vikes announce they have signed or traded for either--Garcia, Warner or Cassel...I'd love to know your thoughts on this... love your blog...keep up the great work.

My short answer: It's likely I'll look foolish in about a week regardless. It's my natural appearance.

The longer answer: It's true, I can't rule out the possibility that the Vikings' message this week has been part of a larger misinformation campaign. I'm sure I've contributed to the perception over the years that you can't always believe what they -- or any other NFL team -- says. And it's only fair to point out that one strategy to lower the price on, say, New England quarterback Matt Cassel is to create the impression that they are willing to stand pat.

I'll also say that at this time last year, the Vikings probably would have been honest if they all but ruled out the possibility of trading for defensive end Jared Allen. The situation changed over the following few months, but at the time of the 2008 scouting combine, there seemed to be no possibility it would happen.

But in this case, I'm not inclined to believe this is a Colombo re-run. Here's where I'm coming from:

  1. Typically, NFL teams which don't want their plans revealed tend to keep the possibilities as vague as possible. You hear a lot of, "We're not ruling any option out." You don't get what Childress said Friday about Frerotte's hoped-for return. ("That could be the source of the competition.")
  2. Look at history. Childress played a big role in drafting Jackson in 2006 and said Friday that he has seen improvement every season. Noting Jackson's improvement over the years has been a staple of Childress' justification for making him the starter. One quote that didn't make Friday's post: Childress said he believes quarterbacks need four years to be full evaluated. Coincidentally, Jackson is entering his fourth season.
  3. There is no obvious alternative, at least not one that comes at a reasonable price. Even if you do believe that Cassel can be your starter for the next 10 years, the cost might be prohibitive. The Vikings decimated their 2008 draft in the Allen trade and aren't eager to give up another series of draft picks this year. Here's Spielman on the topic: "You can't do that every year because if you continue to give away draft picks you're going to weaken your team for future years and we have all our draft picks." I've suggested that Jeff Garcia would be a possibility, but that was when I was under the impression Frerotte wouldn't be back. Frerotte's familiarity with the offense makes him pretty comparable to Garcia as an option.
  4. I've done a bit of background reporting that leads me to believe Childress and Spielman aren't bluffing. (Although if a conspiracy is under way, I suppose even background sources could be infected.)
  5. I suppose you can't let fan reaction make your decisions. But the Vikings are no doubt sensitive to their ticket-buying public after needing deadline extensions and corporate help to sell out five home games last season. If they had plans other than the ones they outlined Friday, I'm guessing they would have avoided the Jackson-Frerotte story line altogether. No need to introduce an issue that could inflame some fans when you know it's not likely. (Of course, if you're a real conspiracy theorist, you could argue that introducing Jackson-Frerotte would heighten excitement for an otherwise middling move that could occur later. But that one's too deep for a Saturday morning.)
  6. UPDATE: Here's one more thought to add to the list. If the Vikings were creating a smokescreen, do you think they would take it as far as trying to talk Frerotte into returning for another season? Because here's the worst/best-case scenario: Frerotte agrees to return in 2009 under the belief he will be competing with Jackson for the job. A month or so later, the Vikings trade for Cassel. It's a cold-hearted business, but reputations can be permanently ruined by a stunt like that.

I'm not willing to say there is a 100 percent chance that Jackson and Frerotte -- or another veteran -- will be the Vikings' top two quarterbacks entering training camp. But based on what I heard Friday, I think it's by far the likeliest scenario.

 
  AP Photo/Andy King
  Brad Childress indicated on Friday that the Vikings are considering bringing back QB Gus Frerotte to compete with Tarvaris Jackson.

Posted by ESPN.com's Kevin Seifert

INDIANAPOLIS -- Forgive my geekdom, but as I considered Minnesota's quarterback situation Friday, I couldn't stop thinking of a phrase we had to learn in middle school Latin:

Morturi te salutamus.

(Translation: We who are about to die salute you.)

Whoops! Not that one.

Let's try again:

Tempus iter nunc.

(Translation: The time of the journey is now.)

Yes, the Vikings are on the verge of the most important offseason decision in their recent history: Should they give quarterback Tarvaris Jackson another chance to prove he can be their long-term starter? Or do they acquire a veteran to replace him and guide an otherwise skilled roster for the next few years?

On the second full day of the annual scouting combine, Vikings coach Brad Childress came as close as he ever will to tipping his hand. Childress said he wants to create training camp competition for the position, but his first candidate for Jackson's foil is the man who finished the 2008 season as Jackson's backup.

Childress confirmed has had multiple conversations in recent weeks with veteran Gus Frerotte, who went 8-3 as a starter in 2008 but expressed public displeasure when Childress re-established Jackson as the starter in December. There have been indications that Frerotte might seek his release or retire, but Childress said there is an "open door" for Frerotte to return and said, "That could be the source of the competition."

Whether or not Frerotte agrees to the arrangement -- and I have my doubts about how authentic the competition would be -- it seems clear the Vikings have no interest in pursuing a blockbuster deal to find a new starter. That would seem to rule out a run at New England's Matt Cassel, and as of Friday the team had displayed no indications it would pursue pending free agent Jeff Garcia.

In fact, during an extended interview with a small group of reporters, I asked Childress if he could envision a scenario in which the Vikings would pursue a player to be their new and unquestioned starter. Childress paused several seconds and said: "There might be." Then, he added: "But right now I would be honest with you and tell you I wouldn't know who that person would be."

2009 Available Quarterbacks*
Player 2008 team
Matt Cassel New England
Kurt Warner Arizona
Kerry Collins Tennessee
Jeff Garcia Tampa Bay
Derek Anderson Cleveland+
Byron Leftwich Pittsburgh
Chris Simms Tennessee
J.P. Losman Buffalo
Charlie Batch Pittsburgh
Rex Grossman Chicago
Kyle Boller Baltimore
J.T. O'Sullivan San Francisco
Dan Orlovsky Detroit
* List based on Scouts Inc. rankings
+ Under contract with Cleveland but likely available via trade

A day earlier, Vikings vice president Rick Spielman also downplayed the Vikings' realistic chances of finding a new starter:

"I think you ask yourself this: How many quarterbacks do you face in a year that you are actually scared of playing? There's maybe a handful that you say, 'Yeah, this guy can carry a team for you.' But if there's a guy that's unique out there and you think he's going to be out on the free-agent market ... the last guy that was o
ut there was Drew Brees and he had a shoulder [injury]. Quarterbacks don't get out there that are unique."

So let's quickly review. Without mentioning Cassel, Garcia or Cleveland's Derek Anderson by name, the Vikings' top two decision-makers are on record saying they don't believe there is a difference-making quarterback available to them. And their first option is to make no changes to their 2008 depth chart.

There's only one conclusion to draw.

The Vikings are giving Jackson another chance.

This decision is borne of the mentality that could allow Jackson to enter three consecutive training camps as the Vikings' most likely starter. Childress believes deeply both in Jackson's ability and his own history in developing quarterbacks. He noted Friday that "we need him [Jackson] to improve" but quickly added: "I believe he will."

This quote neatly encapsulates Childress' thoughts on the situation:

"I think [Jackson] gave some glimpses coming in off the bench and doing the things he did. Obviously he needs to eliminate some of those turnovers. We need him to change that touchdown-to-turnover ratio. And then we need to put somebody in place that will push him and compete with him, and I think competition is the nature of the game. At some places it may not be ... [but] in our situation we need to have a good healthy competition because I think that makes everybody better."

Some optimists will read that quote and believe Childress will simply pick the best training camp performer to start. But Childress made clear at the end of last season that he believed Jackson gave the Vikings a better chance to win than Frerotte.

So I think it's only fair to question how legitimate a summer competition between Jackson and Frerotte would be. Wouldn't Jackson need to slump badly to change the dynamic? And if it's not Frerotte, who could the Vikings sign to bring true competition? Chris Simms? Byron Leftwich, who has never played in a West Coast offense? Kerry Collins, who has already been promised Tennessee's starting job?

Childress said "it's up to me" to facilitate a fair fight. But knowing Childress' history with Jackson and the Vikings' desire to lock down the position long term, well, it's only fair to conclude Jackson is the odds-on favorite.

I asked Childress what he would say to convince Frerotte that he wouldn't face a stacked deck. Childress offered a winding answer, but it boiled down to this: "We've always had a relationship based on honesty."

In other words, Childress will ask Frerotte -- or whichever other veteran the Vikings ultimately bring in -- to take his word. The journey has already begun.

Posted by ESPN.com's Kevin Seifert

INDIANAPOLIS -- A handful of reporters spent the better part of 40 minutes grilling Rick Spielman, Minnesota's vice president of player personnel, about all things Vikings. Spielman is a veteran of these affairs and knows how to dance around a question, so it's up to us to play a fun game of Reading Between the Lines with his answers.

Some of the answers are partial and are marked thusly with ellipses. (That's "..." for the punctuationally challenged.)

Where are you with Gus [Frerotte]? He hasn't sounded too happy with the organization in recent media interviews?

Rick Spielman: That's between Brad [Childress] and Gus, and I'd rather leave that all for Brad. You can hit Brad on that.

Between the lines: Frerotte doesn't want to return as a backup to Tarvaris Jackson or anyone else the Vikings might acquire. The Vikings will have to release him or it's likely Frerotte will retire.

What positions are deep in the draft?

RS: On the offensive side, I think it's a deep center class ....

Between the lines: Say goodbye to center Matt Birk, who is a pending free agent. Spielman said the Vikings have talks planned with all of their pending free agents, but realistically, they probably would have completed a contract with Birk by now if they really wanted him back.

What do you think of Adrian Peterson saying he wants to bulk up to 230 pounds in 2009?

RS: I think that's Adrian trying to be the best football player that he can be. There is a lot of untapped potential, and how much better he can still get is still untapped. I know the coaches -- Tom Kanavy, our strength coach -- they will all monitor that to see if that's the thing or not. But Adrian works extremely hard at his craft to be the best that he can be. That's something that will be discussed internally, but I know you don't have to ever worry about Adrian being ready to go and being in the best shape possible.

So it's not a request from the team?

RS: No. I just think he's trying to be the best he can be.

Do you think it's a good idea?

RS: Adrian is very lean, very lean, muscular. A lot like you guys, maybe 5 percent body fat. ... I'm sure if he came back at 270 pounds, there would be some concern. But he's such an explosive athlete, and if you're able to add more muscle mass to what he has, it could be more of a benefit. I know Adrian is smart enough to know what weight he would want to put on before it would affect his speed and quickness. You wouldn't want that weight to affect how he is or what type of player he is.

Between the lines: This is Peterson's idea, and the Vikings are willing to go along until the extra weight slows him down. If that happens, the experiment is over.

Spielman spoke extensively, if not equally evasively, about the Vikings' quarterback situation. No breaking news here, but look for his thoughts to be part of a column I post Friday.

Imagining Garcia in these parts

February, 16, 2009
2/16/09
6:30
PM ET
Posted by ESPN.com's Kevin Seifert

It's interesting -- at least to me -- that you can rule out only one NFC North team as a potential landing place for pending free agent quarterback Jeff Garcia, who officially learned over the weekend that he won't be returning to Tampa Bay in 2009.

It's relatively safe to assume that Green Bay, with Aaron Rodgers locked in as the starter, won't make a run at Garcia. But you could make an argument that the remainder of the Black and Blue, to varying degrees, could all benefit from signing a quarterback who has experienced immediate success in his two most recent stops.

Take a look at what Garcia did in those instances. In both cases, Garcia guided his team into the playoffs:

Jeff Garcia By the Numbers
Jeff Garcia has been told by the Buccaneers that he won't be retained for a third season. Here is a look at the quarterback's first year in his previous two NFL stops:
Team Year Comp Att Pct Yds INT TD Rat
Philadelphia 2006 116 188 61.7 1,309 10 2 95.8
Tampa Bay 2007 209 327 63.9 2,440 13 4 94.6

Now let's consider Garcia's NFC North possibilities, building up to the situation that makes the most sense from both sides:

DETROIT LIONS

Why it might work: The Lions have a logjam of potential "bridge starters" who could hold space for a young quarterback the team could acquire as early this spring. But new coach Jim Schwartz might want to make a clean break from the past, which would eliminate Daunte Culpepper, Dan Orlovsky, Drew Stanton and even Jon Kitna from consideration. All things equal, you might choose Garcia over each of those candidates regardless.

Why it won't happen: Garcia already has had one disastrous experience in Detroit. He is known primarily for his success in the West Coast offense, but new coordinator Scott Linehan is more closely associated with the "three-digit" downfield passing style. Garcia isn't likely to want to finish his career in a rebuilding situation.

Chances: Unlikely

  2008: Best of Jeff Garcia
  NFL.com Video
  The best moments from Jeff Garcia in 2008.

CHICAGO BEARS

Why it might work: The Bears aren't committed to starter Kyle Orton beyond the 2009 season, and general manager Jerry Angelo has made the position his highest priority. That makes it hard to believe the Bears will enter 2009 without at least an experienced backup for Orton; Garcia might be the best candidate available. The Bears don't run a West Coast offense per se, but Garcia would quickly develop relationships with the team's veterans.

Why it won't happen: Garcia might be more of a challenge than the Bears want to pose for Orton. If they're trying to coax Orton to long-term success, the Bears are best off with a backup who can fill in if Orton falters. That's different than a backup who can beat him out on merit in training camp. Garcia also does nothing to solve the longer-term quarterback issue should Orton fail.

Chances: Possible

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Why it might work: The Vikings run the type of West Coast offense Garcia has excelled in. He has a quick release, is mobile and has thrown only 14 interceptions in the past three seasons. He could assume the starting job right away and give Tarvaris Jackson more time to develop. Garcia should be attracted to the Vikings' offensive weapons, from receiver Bernard Berrian to tight end Visanthe Shiancoe to tailback Adrian Peterson.

Why it won't happen: Coach Brad Childress has been loyal to Jackson and will give him every opportunity to succeed. The Vikings had a chance to sign Garcia two years ago and passed. If Garcia does his homework, he'll find out that at least two veteran quarterbacks -- Brad Johnson and Gus Frerotte -- ended their seasons disenchanted with their roles.

Chances: Possible going on intriguing

Posted by ESPN.com's Kevin Seifert

John Tait's likely retirement puts Chicago in serious shopping mode for a right tackle over the next few months. Brad Biggs of the Chicago Sun-Times suggests the Bears will need to make a strong push to re-sign veteran John St. Clair, an impending free agent whom they aren't believed to have shown much interest in at this point.

The top tackles of the draft are likely to be off the board when Chicago's No. 18 overall pick arrives in the April draft. That means the Bears probably can't count on a rookie stepping in as an immediate starter and therefore need to have a veteran contingency plan at the position.

Bob LeGere of the Daily Herald also supports the St. Clair re-signing.

If you're interested, we'll bring you a list of free agent right tackles a bit later Monday. For now, let's continue around the NFC North:

  • David Haugh of the Chicago Tribune has a suggestion for bait to acquire Arizona receiver Anquan Boldin: Middle linebacker Brian Urlacher. Haugh: "Though Urlacher may have reached the point where his value to the Bears is higher than it would be in a trade, it can't hurt to ask whether Urlacher is still untouchable. My sense is that question would not inspire a unanimous answer at Halas Hall."
  • Minnesota quarterback Gus Frerotte tells the Star Tribune's Sid Hartman that he wants a chance to win the Vikings' starting position if he returns. Frerotte: "A lot of people say, 'Why wouldn't you want to go back there and, if you're not starting, just stand there and watch?' But it's not about that for me. I played a lot with those guys, so I can still play."
  • Minnesota team officials are asking the Minneapolis City Council to allow them to sell more billboards in and around the Metrodome, according to Michelle Bruch of the Downtown Journal.
  • Former Detroit receiver Mike Furrey told a national radio audience that the Lions would anoint Daunte Culpepper their starter in 2009. Later, Furrey backed off the certainty of that comment in an interview with Carlos Monarrez of the Detroit Free Press.
  • Tom Kowalski of Mlive.com also refutes Furrey's information.
  • Pete Dougherty of the Green Bay Press-Gazette looks at the Packers' relatively light set of looming decisions on their pending free agents.
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