NFC North: Jasper Brinkley

Our friends at Football Outsiders have reached the NFC North juncture of their annual post-draft needs series for ESPN.com. You'll need an Insider subscription to read the entire file Insider but I can provide you a snippet of the needs that Outsiders' statistical analysis points to for each of our teams.

Chicago Bears
Need:
Offensive line
Excerpt: Left tackle J'Marcus Webb "led the league with 15 offensive penalties in 2011."
Seifert comment: We've been through this before. Outsiders suggests the Bears seek a swing tackle via free agency, but indications are that the team envisions 2008 first-round pick Chris Williams in that role.

Detroit Lions
Need:
Cornerback
Excerpt: Free-agent acquisition Jacob Lacey "ranked 81st in success rate against the pass last year and 88th in 2010."
Seifert comment: The Lions prioritize the havoc they can create with a dynamic defensive line over whatever shortcomings they might have in the secondary. Lacey will compete with Aaron Berry and perhaps rookie Dwight Bentley for a starting job.

Green Bay Packers
Need:
Backup quarterback
Excerpt: "If any injury causes [Aaron] Rodgers to miss action, the Packers are looking at trotting out either super raw seventh-round rookie B.J. Coleman or undrafted and utterly untested third-year man Graham Harrell."
Seifert comment: In 2008, the Packers set a precedent of using an untested backup in Matt Flynn. There isn't league-wide certainty that Harrell is prepared to be a No. 2 in 2012, but the Packers are more likely to use him in that role than sign a veteran free agent.

Minnesota Vikings
Need:
Middle linebacker
Excerpt: "There's no evidence suggesting that [Jasper] Brinkley can handle the full slate of middle linebacker duties."
Seifert comment: All indications are that Brinkley will get the first chance to replace E.J. Henderson. There isn't a notable alternative on the roster, but it's a position where a temporary starter could be signed during training camp. But the Vikings are committed to getting younger and Brinkley is 26.

Vikings: A new defensive gut

March, 28, 2012
Mar 28
1:15
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PALM BEACH, Fla. -- If the nose tackle and middle linebacker represent the gut of a defense, then it's safe to say the Minnesota Vikings have signed themselves up for plastic surgery this season.

(Too much? I liked it. Come on. Lighten up.)

The takeaway from my time with Vikings coach Leslie Frazier on Wednesday morning was that he will have a new starting nose tackle in 2012 and is close to deciding on his next middle linebacker. Fifth-year player Letroy Guion will replace the released Remi Ayodele at nose tackle, while Frazier indicated that Jasper Brinkley is his top choice to start at middle linebacker.

Both players are longtime backups and draft choices of newly promoted general manager Rick Spielman, and their anticipated ascension is a reasonable illustration of how Spielman hopes to run the franchise.

Guion was a fifth-round pick in 2008 and has started three games over four seasons since then. His newly-prominent role became clear when the Vikings signed him to a three-year contract earlier this month that will pay him $2.5 million. Ayodele was subsequently released.

"We want him to be the starting nose tackle," Frazier said.

Brinkley, meanwhile, was a fifth-round pick a year after the Vikings selected Guion. He was the backup to starter E.J. Henderson in 2009 and 2010, starting six games after Henderson's broken leg in 2009, but missed all of 2011 because of a hip injury.

"We believe he is healthy now," Frazier said. "And he has started for us when E.J. was injured in the past. We think he is capable of doing it. We just haven't had him do it for 16 weeks. But we think he's about ready to take that role. We'll determine that in the weeks and months to come."

Doctors have cleared Brinkley for all football activities, and if there was any hesitation in Frazier's response, it should be attributed to the universal NFL caveat at this time of year. The Vikings have 10 draft picks, including seven of the top 138, and a starting-caliber middle linebacker could be a target.

Absent that event, however, the chances seem high that Brinkley will team with Erin Henderson and Chad Greenway to form the Vikings' 2012 trio of linebackers. During that 2009 stretch, Brinkley proved to be a physical run-stopper who is most likely not going to be on the field in nickel situations.

Again, everything could change after the draft. But regardless of the ingredients, it seems likely the Vikings will have a new defensive gut in 2012.
The NFL's relatively depressed market for linebackers allowed the Minnesota Vikings to bring back starter Erin Henderson at a low-risk rate. After an encouraging season as a first-time starter in 2011, Henderson agreed to terms on a one-year contract worth $2 million, according to Jeremy Fowler of the St. Paul Pioneer Press.

Our friends at Pro Football Focus (PFF) have been singing Henderson's praises all offseason, concluding he had one of the best performances of any 4-3 outside linebacker in 2011. Among PFF's finds from a season-long analysis: Henderson led all players at the position by making a tackle on 16.1 percent of the plays he was on the field for. He also had the highest percentage of "stops," which are tackles that led to an offensive failure in the running game.
PFF: "Just looking at tackle figures you might not be drawn instantly to his name, but Erin Henderson made more positive defensive plays relative to how much he was on the field than any other linebacker, and showed a real knack for shedding blocks and affecting the play. Against the run he wasn’t just having a good season, but there may not have been a better player in the NFL at his position last year."

Henderson expressed frustration via Twitter recently about the seeming lack of urgency to re-sign him, but the reality is the market value for linebackers has either dropped or at best stayed flat as the NFL continues its shift toward the passing game and pass defense.

In any event, the Vikings can now say they have two of their three starting linebackers under contract in Henderson and Chad Greenway. It's not clear who will start at middle linebacker, where long-term starter E.J. Henderson remains on the market. One possibility is Jasper Brinkley, but he missed all of 2011 because of a hip injury.
Previewing some of the big decisions facing NFC North teams early in the 2012 offseason:

A flurry of moves last week left the Minnesota Vikings with two linebacker coaches but no short- or long-term answers at the all-important middle linebacker position. Fred Pagac has returned to coach linebackers, where he will join forces with Mike Singletary, but veteran middle linebacker E.J. Henderson is a pending free agent and his heir apparent hasn't played since 2010.

As of late December, the Vikings hadn't approached Henderson about a new contract. He will turn 32 in August and spent part of this season battling knee problems that stem from a brutal leg injury that probably should have ended his career in 2009.

Now would be a logical time for the Vikings to elevate Jasper Brinkley, a fifth-round draft pick in 2009 who started four regular-season games and another two in the playoffs as a rookie after Henderson fractured his leg. But Brinkley missed all of 2011 after surgery to repair a torn hip labrum and would at least need to clear some rust this offseason before jumping back into the fray.

What other options do the Vikings have? Henderson's younger brother, Erin, started 11 games at outside linebacker but has some experience in the middle. I doubt the Vikings would move the position of Pro Bowl linebacker Chad Greenway, but stranger things have happened. Free agency and the draft typically offer avenues for finding an immediate starter at middle linebacker as well.

Before anything else, the Vikings must determine whether E.J. Henderson should be brought back. Then the Vikings' medical staff will need to evaluate Brinkley; it's worth noting that most players return from hip labrum surgery without any long-term affects.

I don't think any final decisions have been made, but general manager Rick Spielman has said he wants the roster to get younger. Re-signing a 32-year-old middle linebacker probably wouldn't fit into that philosophy.

BBAO: Key number in Matt Forte talks

September, 1, 2011
9/01/11
7:30
AM ET
We're Black and Blue All Over:

On Wednesday, we discussed the Chicago Bears' negotiations with tailback Matt Forte in the context of other deals that have been reached around the NFL. Most recently, the San Francisco 49ers agreed on a three-year extension with tailback Frank Gore. The deal is worth $21 million and includes $13.5 million in guarantees.

How do the Bears value Forte, and how does he value himself? Michael C. Wright of ESPNChicago.com gives us a glimpse by reporting the team has offered a deal that includes about $15 million guaranteed. Unknown at this point is how many years the Bears are offering; generally speaking, more years equals more guaranteed money.

The only urgency for either side to strike a deal at this point is that Forte's value could change once the regular season begins. An injury could lower his value, while some monster games could increase the commitment the Bears will need to make in order to secure him. I guess there is a concern about the distraction of negotiations during the regular season, but to me it's a positive to have a player motivated by as many factors as possible.

Continuing around the NFC North:
We're Black and Blue All Over:

It's starting to look like I'm going to have to learn to spell Dane Sanzenbacher's last name rather than continue copy and pasting it from ESPNChicago.com's website. Nothing is guaranteed at this point, but Sanzenbacher not only appears to have a good chance at making the Chicago Bears' 53-man roster, but the undrafted rookie could also have a role in the team's offense pretty soon (if not immediately) as well.

Jeff Dickerson of ESPNChicago.com provides an update on Sanzenbacher's status. Bears offensive coordinator Mike Martz and quarterback Jay Cutler have both complimented his performance as a slot receiver, and he was on the field for the Bears' second offensive series last weekend against the Tennessee Titans. He has reliable hands and understands the Bears' route tree.

At 5-foot-11 and 180 pounds, Sanzenbacher might not be big enough to fill a coverage role on special teams that normally goes to a reserve receiver. But if he is as good of a pass-catcher as the Bears believe, that might not be a deal-breaker.

Continuing around the NFC North:
  • Bears coach Lovie Smith downplayed any interest the team might have in former defensive end Alex Brown, who was released Tuesday by the New Orleans Saints. Mark Potash of the Chicago Sun-Times has more.
  • Bears offensive line coach Mike Tice said his group played its best game of the preseason against the Titans, according to Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune.
  • Green Bay Packers defensive end Mike Neal (knee) believes he will be ready for the team's Sept. 8 season-opener, writes Jason Wilde of ESPNMilwaukee.com.
  • Pete Dougherty of the Green Bay Press-Gazette looks at Packers' depth at cornerback.
  • Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: "Just one week remains before the start of the regular season and the Green Bay Packers still don't know if they have a functional backup at center or guard. The situation is about clear as mud because rookie Caleb Schlauderaff and veteran Nick McDonald, the two players the Packers hoped would solidify their interior, have failed to emerge."
  • Clarifying earlier remarks, Minnesota Gov. Mark Dayton said that he is neutral on a voter referendum for a new Minnesota Vikings stadium, according to Rochelle Olson of the Star Tribune. Dayton said he would sign a bill that included a referendum but isn't advocating for one.
  • The Vikings have a continuing competition for the starting safety spot alongside Husain Abdullah, notes Jeremy Fowler of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. Neither Tyrell Johnson nor Jamarca Sanford have won the job.
  • The Vikings could lose linebacker Jasper Brinkley for an extended time because of a hip injury, writes Tom Pelissero of 1500ESPN.com.
  • Detroit Lions running back Jahvid Best (concussion) is expected to see action in Thursday's preseason finale, according to Carlos Monarrez of the Detroit Free Press.
  • The Lions are continuing to stage a punting competition between Nick Harris and Ryan Donahue, notes Philip Zaroo of Mlive.com.
  • Lions rookie linebacker Doug Hogue is hoping to make a good impression in the final days of the preseason, writes Tim Twentyman of the Detroit News.

Previewing preseason Week 3

August, 26, 2011
8/26/11
12:00
PM ET
In which we look ahead to NFC North preseason football over the next two days.

Green Bay Packers
Opponent:
Indianapolis Colts
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium
Day/Time: Friday/8 p.m. ET
Personnel notes: Coach Mike McCarthy estimated that starters will play midway through the second quarter. Although they could see extra time, it's not expected that McCarthy will bring them out for the third quarter. ... Receiver/returner Randall Cobb (knees) and defensive end Mike Neal (knee) aren't expected to play. Receiver Greg Jennings (knee) could join them on the sideline. Running back James Starks (ankle) and linebacker Clay Matthews (hamstring) should return from a week off.
Focal point: I'm curious to track how the Packers' offense performs when it is not in the no-huddle. That alignment has given them most of their success in the preseason, but I'm assuming they won't be running it every play during the regular season. From a competition standpoint, it's worth keeping a close eye on how tailback Ryan Grant performs and if Starks picks up where he left off before the ankle injury. Could Starks lay claim to the starting job with a strong showing?

Chicago Bears
Opponent:
Tennessee Titans
Location: LP Field
Day/Time: Saturday/8 p.m. ET
Personnel notes: Most starters will play at least a half. ... Receiver Sam Hurd (ankle), linebacker Lance Briggs (knee) and defensive tackle Anthony Adams (calf) have been ruled out. Tight end Kellen Davis (back) could miss the game, while cornerback Zack Bowman (concussion) appears likely to resume playing.
Focal point: The Bears' current offensive line configuration could lock itself into a Week 1 assignment with a solid outing that builds off last week's performance against the New York Giants. On the other hand, receiver Roy Williams needs to make a few catches in order to assure the Bears he is worthy of the starting job they handed him in training camp. Like most NFL teams, the Bears would like to see their offense produce a few touchdown drives before the preseason is over. Finally, I would like to see the Bears' defensive line rotation start shaking itself out. It's not clear at this point if they have a legitimate backup defensive end or if any of their two reclamation projects, Vernon Gholston and Amobi Okoye, will provide any help.

Detroit Lions
Opponent:
New England Patriots
Location: Ford Field
Day/Time: Saturday/8 p.m. ET
Personnel notes: Starters will play around half of the game... Running back Jahvid Best (concussion) and Maurice Morris (hand) aren't expected to play, so the Lions are likely to start Jerome Harrison. Mike Bell, Aaron Brown and Stefan Logan will be available to rotate in. Defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch (shoulder) is a strong candidate to sit out as well.
Focal point: The Lions' uncertain depth at running back will be on full display. By the end of the night, we should have an idea if they have someone capable of carrying a significant load while sharing the job with Best. On the other hand, fans might get their first look at rookie receiver Titus Young. Meanwhile, the countdown continues for the first preseason hit on quarterback Matthew Stafford. He told reporters this week: "You guys can ask all you want. I don't think about it. I just play football and whatever happens, happens."

Minnesota Vikings
Opponent:
Dallas Cowboys
Location:
Metrodome
Day/Time: Saturday/8 p.m. ET
Personnel notes: Some starters are expected to play into the third quarter. ... The Vikings have a long injury list. Tight end Visanthe Shiancoe (hamstring), linebacker Heath Farwell (hamstring), linebacker Jasper Brinkley (hip), tailback Toby Gerhart (ankle), defensive tackle Kevin Williams (foot) and cornerback Asher Allen (toe) are among those who won't play.
Focal point: The Vikings' first-team offense has produced three points this preseason and isn't likely to be on the field much in the preseason finale. So Saturday night is their best and last chance to build some momentum for the regular season. The offense hasn't appeared disorganized or confused. It just hasn't had much punch yet and its personality is far from defined. It would also be helpful if rookie Christian Ponder can establish himself as the No. 2 quarterback so the Vikings can free up Joe Webb to focus on the Wildcat and other unique packages.
We're Black and Blue All Over:

Periodically this offseason, we've heard rumors and seen reports that the Minnesota Vikings have (or will) target Washington Redskins quarterback Donovan McNabb as their next quarterback. McNabb appears unlikely to return to the Redskins and should be available via trade or after his release whenever the lockout ends.

Mike Jones of the Washington Post provides the latest installment. My guess is the Vikings would pursue McNabb only if they're unsatisfied with their draft haul next week. Coach Leslie Frazier has said on several occasions that the "ideal situation" is to draft a quarterback that he can start right away and thus accelerate the development process.

Bringing McNabb into a situation where there is an obvious heir in the wings would be far from ideal. And let's make clear that the long-standing connection many have made between McNabb and the Vikings -- the presence of former coach Brad Childress, McNabb's first quarterbacks coach in the NFL -- is no longer valid. Stay tuned.

Continuing around the NFC North:
We're Black and Blue All Over:

Many of you have been asking about a timetable for the return of Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford, and the best answer right now is that it will be a while.

As we've discussed, an injury to a quarterback's throwing shoulder is usually treated with extreme caution. But 10 days after the injury, according to Chris McCosky of the Detroit News, Stafford still can't use his right arm to tie his shoes. He can lift the arm over his head, but obviously he has significant work to do before he can begin throwing.

There aren't many tea leaves to read on this one. It's obvious the Lions think Stafford will return at some point this season, or else they would have placed him on injured reserve. But initial discussions of a six-week timetable seem to be a solid baseline at this point.

Continuing around the NFC North:
  • The Lions benched linebacker Julian Peterson for the final two series of Sunday's loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, notes Tom Kowalski of Mlive.com. Peterson will presumably remain in the starting lineup, in part because of the concussion-related absence of fellow outside linebacker Zack Follett.
  • Here's another scary concussion story from Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press: Follett said he suffered the concussion during a first-half kickoff against the Eagles and played the second half "in kind of a dream." Ouch.
  • ESPN's John Clayton reports the Minnesota Vikings ultimately refused the San Diego Chargers' asking price for receiver Vincent Jackson. The Chargers wanted second- and fourth-round draft picks.
  • Vikings receiver Greg Camarillo on his infrequent use in the Vikings' first two games, via Bob Sansevere of the St. Paul Pioneer Press: "I didn't really know what to expect. I feel I'm capable of catching the ball. I'm capable of making plays. Then again, we have talented receivers here. It's not like I'm going to come in and replace anybody. I've got to find my spot. I've got to figure out what the offense needs and fulfill whatever role they need me to."
  • Vikings linebacker Jasper Brinkley was a close friend and college teammate of Kenny McKinley, the Denver Broncos receiver who committed suicide this week. The Star Tribune has more.
  • The Vikings are trying to preach patience this week, writes Tom Pelissero of 1500ESPN.com.
  • Mike Vandermause of the Green Bay Press-Gazette: "While General Manager Ted Thompson has been criticized for the Packers' perceived thin ranks at outside linebacker, halfback and cornerback, those complaints have overshadowed the team's overall strength. Consider that in the past year the Packers have lost seven starters to injuries, suspension or free agency. Every team suffers from attrition, but the Packers have not only weathered the loss of roughly one-third of their starting lineup from last season, but continue to flourish in spite of it."
  • Former Packers general manager Ron Wolf missed the first two weeks of the NFL season while traveling in Europe and recently caught up on tape at Lambeau Field, writes Lori Nickel of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
  • The Chicago Bears' offense is unpredictable under new coordinator Mike Martz, writes Michael C. Wright of ESPNChicago.com.
  • Bob LeGere of the Daily Herald: "Now that the Bears' offense has rolled up 771 yards of total offense in the first two weeks of the season, the Mike Martz bandwagon is filled to capacity. But players say they've had confidence in the new offensive coordinator's scheme for a long time, despite an inauspicious preseason."
  • The Bears demonstrated deft ability to make in-game adjustments Sunday against Dallas, writes Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune.
  • Bears cornerback Charles Tillman is back to his ball-stripping ways, according to Sean Jensen of the Chicago Sun-Times.
ESPN.com NFL Power Ranking (pre-camp): 3

MANKATO, Minn. -- The question typically follows The Question. After Minnesotans ask, "Is Favre going to play?" they almost always follow with this one: "How does the rest of the team look?"

In a sign of what has been a wild summer already, the former is much easier to answer than the latter. Quarterback Brett Favre still seems likely to re-join the team later this month, but his once-and-future teammates missed so many training camp practices that it was nearly impossible to gauge the state of the team. Pro Bowl receiver Sidney Rice missed all 24 practices because of a mysterious hip injury. Receiver Percy Harvin (funeral/migraines) missed 21, tailback Adrian Peterson (hamstring) sat out 16, center John Sullivan (leg) was significantly limited in 20 and right guard Anthony Herrera (back) missed seven.

In all, more than half of the Vikings' offensive starters missed a majority of training camp. It might prove a manageable total for a team that has returned nearly intact from the one that advanced to the NFC Championship Game, but the injuries and indecision conspired to make for some nervous days at Minnesota State University, Mankato.

Coach Brad Childress did his best to weather what he termed a minor storm, but his skill for finding the bright side has surely been tested.

"People ask me if this is the most number of players that I can remember sitting out," Childress said. "No, it's not. I read the [news] clips. Philadelphia, they had 14 guys sitting out at one point. I guess [the media] is the one that has to determine whether it's the key guys or not. As the mother hen, I would like them here taking every turn and taking everything. The downside is they're not getting those turns. But the upside, and I have to look at the upside, is you have other players who are getting elevated reps."

Indeed, the Vikings will have the most well-trained junior varsity team in the NFC North. The state of their varsity team, however, remains unknown.

THREE HOT ISSUES

Brett Favre Scott Boehm/Getty ImagesIt seems the Vikings are expecting Brett Favre to return this season.
1. To what extent did Favre's uncertainty impact the rest of the team's preparation? Most players experienced a similar drama last season, and it doesn't appear that many are fretting his ultimate decision or are distracted by the indecision. But that's largely because they all expect him to return, and it was telling when tight end Visanthe Shiancoe blurted that a surprise retirement "would be a blow to the team." Not coincidentally, a muzzled Shiancoe has hardly been heard from since.

Another respected veteran, cornerback Antoine Winfield, said: "We are all hopeful that he comes back. It would be nice to spend another season with him, but at this point we don't know. But either way, it's not going to make my job any easier or harder. I still have to go out there and perform and make as many plays as I can."

As far as on the field, history trumps intuition. It makes sense to suggest that an offense is behind for as long as its quarterback stays away. But Favre's remarkable mid-August adjustment last season makes it difficult to make that argument.

2. Have the Vikings done enough to fortify their secondary? Starting right cornerback Cedric Griffin is still recovering from a torn anterior cruciate ligament, and the Vikings have opened his job up to four players: Lito Sheppard, Asher Allen, Benny Sapp and rookie Chris Cook. Sheppard makes the most sense as a short-term starter, but Cook was impressive on every level in training camp.

Cook displayed sophisticated cover skills, enough speed to stay with most receivers and, at 6-foot-2, an imposing physical presence. Sheppard has held on to his first-team job, but it could be a matter of time before Cook displaces him.

Meanwhile, the Vikings have created a legitimate competition at strong safety between incumbent Tyrell Johnson and second-year player Jamarca Sanford. If all things are equal, I'm guessing the Vikings will favor Johnson, a high second-round draft pick in 2008. But Sanford is a live wire, a strong hitter and won't go quietly.

Coaches believe Johnson has responded well to the challenge, but they want to see it translate into more plays -- big tackles, interceptions, forced fumbles -- during preseason games.

[+] Enlarge
Peterson
AP Photo/Mark HumphreyAdrian Peterson has missed 16 training camp practices.
3. Is there a connection between Favre's indecision and the lengthy absences of Rice, Harvin and Peterson? I can't tell you how often I've heard that question in the past week or so. It comes down to whether players resent the double standard Favre has enjoyed since the end of last season, and if some of his most prominent teammates are passively protesting. All I can say is that no overt evidence exists to support that charge.

I agree that it seemed suspicious when the Vikings' three top skill players all came up with reasons to miss most of training camp. Conspiracy theories are great, but in the end that's all they are -- theories. The most important fact is there is every reason to believe all three players will be ready to play when the regular season begins.

BIGGEST SURPRISE

When middle linebacker E.J. Henderson first fractured his left femur last December, initial reports suggested he would need a year to recover. That timetable suggested that Henderson wouldn't return to the field, if at all, before the 2011 season. Given his age (30) and history of significant injuries, you wondered if his career was over. But Henderson has cut his recovery time in half and appears on his way to re-claiming the starting job in time for the Sept. 9 season opener at New Orleans. By the second week of camp, Henderson was taking all of the first-team repetitions while his understudy, Jasper Brinkley, was pushed back to the second team. Considering the titanium rod that holds Henderson's leg in place, such a quick return would be nothing short of a miracle.

BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT

Ever since the Vikings made him a second-round draft pick in April, Toby Gerhart has figured as the heir to Chester Taylor's vacated role as the No. 2 tailback. But when the Vikings broke camp Thursday, Albert Young was clearly ahead of Gerhart on the depth chart. There is plenty of time for that order to change, but however you look at it, Gerhart had a tough camp. He somehow incurred the wrath of a number of defensive veterans; nose tackle Pat Williams and defensive end Ray Edwards both took their shots at him during practice. Perhaps it was just a visible portion of the NFL toughening process, but there's no doubt Gerhart has some climbing to do before the season begins.

OBSERVATION DECK
  • Tarvaris JacksonIcon SMITarvaris Jackson played only a handful of snaps in 2009 but would be the starter if Favre retires.
    There is no doubt that Tarvaris Jackson, and not Sage Rosenfels, is the No. 2 quarterback and will be the starter if Favre ultimately decides not to play. Jackson has developed a realistic mentality after living through various incarnations of FavreWatch the past three years, and as he does every summer, he threw some tantalizing passes during individual camp drills. But there is a big difference between unleashing 60-yard ropes in practice and playing quarterback at an NFL level during games, and Jackson remains somewhere in the middle.
  • Rosenfels reportedly struggled during the early stages of camp, but he looked decent during the three days I watched practice. I once thought Rosenfels would be traded or released if Favre returned, but now I'm not so sure. To this point, there is no way the Vikings could choose rookie Joe Webb over Rosenfels for the No. 3 job -- and keep a straight face. Frankly, Webb flashed some athletic skills but otherwise looked overwhelmed during camp. There is no way he is ready to be on an NFL roster. One option: Keep two quarterbacks on the active roster and put Webb on the practice squad.
  • Although the Vikings are splitting kicking duties between Ryan Longwell and Rhys Lloyd in the preseason opener at St. Louis, it's hard to believe Longwell won't be the team's place-kicker this year. Lloyd will be a high-priced kickoff specialist. But in explaining the initial split, special teams coordinator Brian Murphy said: "There is no preconceived notion about how this roster will develop. We want to see everyone compete at their highest level. We want to see them put in every position possible. If we get that at every position, we will be a better football team."
  • Of all the veterans who missed significant camp time, Sullivan's absence might have been the most significant. He struggled at times during his first year as a starter and needed every practice repetition he could get. It's especially important to see if Sullivan has improved his core strength to stand up to NFL nose tackles.
  • After noting the Vikings' long list of camp absences, it's only fair to note that two of their biggest -- and older -- players participated in every practice. Pat Williams, 37, and left tackle Bryant McKinnie, 30, were on the field every day.
  • It appears as though Winfield has made it all the way back from a foot injury that made him a part-time player in 2009. Defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier admitted the team wasn't certain that would be the case when camp began, but Winfield experienced no setbacks after an offseason of rest and rehabilitation.
  • Childress has used a John Wooden maxim as one of his primary messages of training camp. "It's in all of their manuals and I'm talking to them about it," Childress said. "It's this: 'The main ingredient to stardom is the rest of the team.' It's a great statement. We'll find out how much guys can put their stuff away for the greater good."

BBAO: Back to headquarters

August, 12, 2010
8/12/10
9:56
AM ET
We're Black and Blue All Over:

Sorry for the late start. Technical issues.

It was a nice run for our 2010 training camp tour, which ended Wednesday in Mankato, Minn. It was great to embed with each NFC North team for three days, and hopefully we all have a much better feel for the division than we did two weeks ago.

I've got plenty of information left in my notebook, and the plan is to sprinkle it into the blog over the next few weeks as we ramp up for -- gasp -- the start of the regular season. Amazing, isn't it?

While we all re-claim our bearings, mostly me I guess, let's take a jaunt around the division:
  • Don't forget that Chicago Bears offensive coordinator Mike Martz once coached the offensive line in San Diego. Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune has more.
  • Safeties Danieal Manning and Major Wright are in a first-team rotation, according to ESPNChicago.com.
  • Mike Mulligan of the Chicago Sun-Times: "The consensus around town for some time now is that the giant doomsday clock is running out on Bears coach Lovie Smith and his staff. Like sands through the hourglass, so are the Days of Our Lovie. Even if you believe that, here's an indisputable fact: the Bears aren't coaching like it."
  • Tom Kowalski of Mlive.com: "The Detroit Lions' scouting department believes [cornerback Amari Spievey] has a lot of ability and can be a productive player. The coaching staff thinks otherwise."
  • Frustration is mounting for Lions linebacker DeAndre Levy, who has missed 11 consecutive days of practice because of a back injury. Tim Twentyman of the Detroit News has more.
  • Lions defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham on the status of linebacker Caleb Campbell when he worked out for the team this spring after two years away from the game: "It was beyond rust. It was like dust." Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press has more.
  • Green Bay Packers offensive lineman Breno Giacomini has finally started putting things together, writes Jason Wilde of ESPNMilwaukee.com.
  • The Packers figure to favor tight ends over fullbacks when it comes down to their final roster decisions, writes Pete Dougherty of the Green Bay Press-Gazette.
  • Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel examines the Packers' financial decisions in recent years and moving forward.
  • Tom Pelissero of 1500ESPN.com doesn't consider the Minnesota Vikings to be in a placekicking competition.
  • Vikings linebacker Jasper Brinkley, the understudy for returning starter E.J. Henderson, has been having a good camp, according to Chip Scoggins of the Star Tribune.
  • Brian Murphy of the St. Paul Pioneer Press: "Aside from the uncertainty surrounding quarterback Brett Favre, the battle for right cornerback is the most intriguing story line at Vikings training camp."

E.J. Henderson: A miracle, so far

August, 10, 2010
8/10/10
2:00
PM ET
E. J. Henderson Jack Rendulich/Icon SMI Vikings linebacker E.J. Henderson appears to be on track to play in Saturday's game at St. Louis.
MANKATO, Minn. -- This is how it happens sometimes when an NFL player suffers a serious injury.

Although healed from a medical standpoint, the player is robbed of the elite skills responsible for his original ascendance into the league. He's slower, maybe not flexible enough or runs with a hitch. Coaches recognize the slip immediately, but the player -- eternally hopeful or possibly in denial -- insists he is at full strength.

So the team puts the player back on the field and lets him see for himself what is evident to everyone else: He's done.

I must admit that scenario came to mind when the Minnesota Vikings cleared linebacker E.J. Henderson for training camp practices last month. As you recall, Henderson fractured his left femur last December in a gruesome injury that was reported to be career-threatening. Fractured femurs usually occur in car accidents and motorcycle rollovers, not football games.

It left Henderson riding a scooter around the team's practice facility last winter. Doctors implanted a permanent titanium rod in his leg. He spent six weeks in a wheelchair, used crutches for another six weeks and a cane for six weeks after that. That's no way for an NFL player to prepare for a season.

So I figured the Vikings were letting down Henderson easily. Instead of placing him on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list, or waiving him injured, the Vikings were simply allowing him to discover football mortality on his own.

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EJ Henderson
AP Photo/Ross D. FranklinE.J. Henderson was carted off the field last season after fracturing his femur.
To this point, however, Henderson's return has proved to be no charade. No one is willing to say he will be the Vikings' starting middle linebacker Sept. 9 at New Orleans -- no one except Henderson, that is -- but here's what we can say with absolute certainty: Henderson has cut his original recovery timetable in half, and in the process surpassed every milestone set in front of him. His final hurdle will be a big one -- actual game experience -- but it's not out of the question that he could play in Saturday's preseason opener at St. Louis.

"I've pretty much known I would get back as soon as I was able to walk again," Henderson said. "Seeing the progress I made each and every week, I knew I would be ready to rock."

Initial reports suggested it would take up to a year for Henderson's leg to heal, but in their first meeting after the injury, Henderson told Vikings coach Brad Childress that he would "set a whole new protocol" for rehabilitating the injury. But despite his accelerated progress, the Vikings were giving strong consideration to placing Henderson on the PUP list when training camp began.

"My tendency is always to err on the side of caution," Childress said.

Henderson talked him out of it. He told Childress he had completed every bit of conditioning specified in the team's summer workout manual and said he needed to begin football activities. "Everything that we had asked players to do, he had done," Childress said. "So we've just been spoon-feeding him a little more each day."

This week, in fact, Henderson reached the point where he was taking all of the Vikings' first-team practice repetitions. I won't pretend to have the expertise to differentiate between Henderson pre- and post-injury. But to me, his increased repetitions are clear evidence of the Vikings' faith in his recovery. If they were worried, or at least wanted to hedge their bet, it's unlikely they would be taking away an increasing number of snaps from backup middle linebacker Jasper Brinkley.

What we're seeing is unprecedented in recent NFL history. How many professional football players have you heard of with titanium rods in their legs? One success story is Oakland Raiders running back Michael Bush, who had a similar instrument inserted into his right leg when he was 22. Bush returned to the field two years later.

Intuition, if nothing else, makes you question how Henderson could recover so much quicker, and at age 30. How could a titanium rod not slow him down?

Even Henderson admitted he briefly questioned his future when he found out about that detail.

"A little bit, yeah," he said. "But with modern medicine I don't have any worries. The doctors told me that I shouldn't feel it and that my leg would be stronger. And I really haven't felt it."

My sense is the Vikings will ride this wave for as long as it takes them but are not yet ready to declare total victory. There are too many unknowns and too much left to happen -- full, live contact among them -- before any conclusions can be drawn. But if Henderson has any doubts, he's not letting on.

"I'm on track," he said. "I don't know what the head coach or the trainers have in store for me, but I'm ready to rock [Saturday] if they want me to. We'll see how it goes. I think that's the last thing -- real, live bullets, bringing them down for real. It's going to be fine."

NFC North weekend mailbag

July, 24, 2010
7/24/10
12:00
PM ET
Thanks to everyone who mobilized Friday afternoon for the return of the weekend mailbag.

You sent so many responses, in fact, that I'll dispatch with the usual filler. To squeeze in as many questions as possible, and have some fun at the same time, I'll respond with one sentence apiece.

As always, I can be reached through the mailbag portal, Facebook or Twitter.

Onward...

Justin of Rochester, Minn., writes: How comfortable is the Green Bay coaching staff with Matt Flynn's ability to take over if something happens to Aaron Rodgers? What are the odds that Graham Harrell makes the roster? With as many pieces in place as they have, wouldn't they have been smarter to grab an experienced veteran in the off season like Baltimore did? Would Sage Rosenfels be a good fit w/ GB if/when MN lets him go?

Kevin Seifert: Every team has a dropoff from its starter to backup, and the gap between Rodgers and Flynn is bigger than most, but the Packers' aversion to veteran free agents make Harrell a likelier option than Rosenfels.


Bryan of Madison, Wis., writes: How much of an impact do you think Johnny Jolly's suspension will have on the Packers' defense?

Kevin Seifert: Minimal, as long as B.J. Raji and Ryan Pickett stay healthy.


Joe of Eden Prairie, Minn., writes: What if the Hokey Pokey really is what it is all about?

Kevin Seifert: Then we all better start turning ourselves around.


Maynard of Jamestown, North Dakota, writes: Reports from different media sources on the Bears' Mike Martz's system mostly agree that Jay Cutler will endure a high number of sacks as a result of seven-step drops, that Greg Olsen will see a reduced role, and that turnovers will remain similar to last season's totals if not increase due primarily to defensive pressure because of a potentially weak offensive line and Cutler's penchant for throwing picks compounded by the demands of Martz's system. Do you have any sense that Martz may tweak his system to meet the realities of this Bears offense?

Kevin Seifert: Only Cutler can lower his interception total by making better decisions, but I'll make this prediction: Olsen will set a record for most catches by a tight end in a Martz offense.


Mike of Chicago writes: I just read the other day that there is a realistic chance that Desmond Clark could beat out Olsen for the Bears starting TE spot. I think that Clark has been a great player for his entire career as a Bear. Do you think that the Bears coaching staff/front office would actually make this move with all of the effort they have put into publicly voicing their belief that Olsen is a star in the making?

Kevin Seifert: I just think Martz is too smart to do anything but maximize Olsen's receiving skills.


Brett of Toledo, Ohio, writes: I am greatly concerned about the state of the Lions backfield. Jahvid Best is clearly the "best" of a bad bunch of RB options with Kevin Smith's future uncertain. There is little value in regards to strong runners behind Best. Why do you think the Lions have chosen to take such a chance at such an important position in their play-action heavy offense?

Kevin Seifert: Don't fret -- the way I see it, the Lions have upgraded the position by going from no gamebreakers to one.


Zach of Kansas City writes: How do you think Zack Bowman will fare against Greg Jennings, Calvin Johnson and Sidney Rice?

Kevin Seifert: Competently, as long as he can reverse his career trend and stay healthy for an entire summer and regular season.


Mike of Minnesota writes: What is your take on Jasper Brinkley? I am assuming that E.J. Henderson will not be ready in time to start the season. I thought Brinkley was developing really quickly as a replacement in the time he was allotted. Specifically, against the Saints and the Cowboys there was no apparent holes because of the absence of EJ. Is it too early to assume Jasper can be a good player in the league or did he show enough last season to have proved himself worthy of a starting role on some team?

Kevin Seifert: Brinkley has a long way to go to match Henderson in his prime, particularly as an enforcer on the line of scrimmage.


Via Facebook, Farley writes: Other than the quarterback situation, how long do you think the talent window will stay open for the Vikings? They've done an excellent job managing cap space and such, but I don't see how they can keep it going indefinitely.

Kevin Seifert: Their defense is a long-term question mark with Pat Williams and Antoine Winfield well into their 30's and Henderson's future in doubt.


Wendall of Forest City writes: What are the chances that Terrell Owens is signed by Green Bay?

Kevin Seifert: About the same chance of Brett Favre being signed by Green Bay.


Dustin of Dell Rapids, South Dakota, writes: If there is a lockout, do you see the owners bringing in players to play? I saw a show on the NFL Network about a season a while ago where there was a lockout. What do you think the chances are that the owners take a similar approach, keeping the NFL alive if there was a lockout?

Kevin Seifert: You're making me feel really old, Dustin, by mentioning a "show" you saw about the 1987 season, when owners replaced striking players with non-union scabs -- of which there is absolutely no chance this time around.


Justin of Brookings, South Dakota, writes: I saw an ESPN headline that Bobby McCray is back on the Saints roster. Any thoughts on if this means anything for the Vikings-Saints opener? The point is moot if McCray doesn't start/see the field, or if Favre surprises the world and retires for good, but I figured you might have a little something to say about it.

Kevin Seifert: To be safe, Favre better double-tape his ankles for the game.


Clay A. of Orlando, Fla., writes: Is there any way that we can get you some classes in objective journalism? Then maybe you can see why you are the basis for so many jokes...Go Bears!!

Kevin Seifert: OMG -- Clay Aiken reads this blog???!!!!!


Tom of Janesville, Wis., writes: We know most of the starters for all four division teams, but besides the backup QB, who do you see as the most important backup for each team?

Kevin Seifert: Chester Taylor in Chicago, Tony Scheffler in Detroit, Brandon Chillar in Green Bay and Lito Sheppard in Minnesota.


LambeauOrWrigley writes: So Dez Bryant signed as the only first round pick so far [as of Friday]. He was picked #24, right after [Bryan] Bulaga at #23. So, does this somewhat set the price for the Bulaga deal? If so, can we expect a "quick" signing and arrival by opening weekend? Or could there be Bulaga's agent claiming his guy was a lock for a top 10 pick and should not be paced at the price for Bryant? Rodgers was a top 10 pick that dropped to #24. Bulaga was supposedly a top 10 pick that dropped to #23. I feel positive karma.

Kevin Seifert: It helps to have the beginnings of a slot framework, but no deal is believed to be imminent.
Harris/Smith/HendersonUS PresswireAl Harris (left), Kevin Smith and E.J. Henderson are all still recovering from injuries they suffered at the end of the season.
NFL offseasons are filled with breathless updates on players recovering from injuries and surgeries of various degrees. Here in the NFC North, however, we have five players whose injuries occurred so recently -- or were so severe -- that their availability is already in doubt for the start of the season.

Teams have been known to express intentional and excessive optimism about injured players -- shocker! -- so let's try to take an unvarnished look at the severity of each Black and Blue situation, the latest timetable and the likeliest contingency plan. Note: There aren't any Chicago Bears mentioned below. The Bears are lucky that their roster is relatively healthy.

Player: Detroit Lions tight end Brandon Pettigrew
Injury: Torn anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee
Injury date: Nov. 26, 2009
Status update: Pettigrew has been participating in individual drills during organized team activities but isn't expected to be ready to practice when training camp begins next month. It's likely he'll start camp on the physically-unable-to-perform (PUP) list. If you subscribe to the 10-month timetable for typical ACL injuries, Pettigrew will be cleared at some point in September.
Contingency: The Lions traded for Denver tight end Tony Scheffler and re-signed backup Will Heller. The Scheffler trade was a smart move regardless, but it reinforced the point that Pettigrew isn't likely to be at full speed when the season begins. At some point, Pettigrew and Scheffler will form a potent one-two duo. But for the immediate future, Scheffler and Heller are the likeliest candidates to open the season.

Player: Lions tailback Kevin Smith
Injury:
Torn anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee
Injury date:
Dec. 13, 2009
Status update:
Like Pettigrew, Smith has been participating in some individual drills during OTAs. Coach Jim Schwartz recently said he "wouldn't be surprised at all" if Smith is ready to practice at the start of training camp, putting him back on the field less than nine months after the injury. It's been done before but would represent an accelerated timetable.
Contingency: Whether Smith was injured, it's likely the Lions still would have traded back into the first round to select speedy tailback Jahvid Best. Given Schwartz's well-known feelings about Best's game-breaking ability, it's hard to imagine a situation where Best isn't the Lions' top option in the backfield -- no matter when Smith returns. If Smith isn't ready to provide backup carries, the Lions still have 2009 backup Maurice Morris on their roster.

Player: Green Bay Packers cornerback Al Harris
Injury: Torn anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee
Injury date: Nov. 22, 2009
Status update: Harris' injury has been described as worse than a typical torn ACL. According to Jason Wilde of ESPNMilwaukee.com, Harris required a second procedure to accelerate the healing process. Harris recently moved his rehabilitation work to Green Bay and is back around the team. But while Harris has expressed some optimism about being ready for training camp, it appears a trip to the PUP list is much more likely.
Contingency: The Packers protected themselves by issuing a high tender to Harris' presumed replacement, restricted free agent Tramon Williams -- a move that ensured Williams wouldn't be able to sign with another team. Whether it happens this season or further in the future, Williams seems destined to take over for Harris, who turns 36 in December.

Player: Minnesota Vikings cornerback Cedric Griffin
Injury: Torn anterior cruciate ligament in left knee
Injury date: Jan. 24, 2010
Status update: Griffin has been rehabilitating at the Vikings' facility but hasn't yet participated in organized team activities. It's likely he'll miss minicamp later this week and it's hard to imagine that he won't wind up on the PUP list for training camp. A 10-month rehab would put him back on the field at midseason.
Contingency:
The Vikings' public optimism must be viewed in the context of their rapid-fire offseason moves to add depth at cornerback. They re-signed 2009 nickel back Benny Sapp, brought in veteran free agent Lito Sheppard and made Chris Cook the No. 34 overall pick of the draft. Coaches also have praised second-year player Asher Allen during OTAs. That collection of cornerbacks suggests the Vikings aren't counting on Griffin returning anytime soon.

Player: Vikings linebacker E.J. Henderson
Injury: Fractured left femur
Injury date: Dec. 6, 2009
Status update: Henderson said Friday he is beginning to run at full speed and that he would do everything he could to be cleared for the start of training camp. But it would be a shock if Henderson didn't open camp on the PUP. The same goes for the possibility of opening the season as the Vikings' middle linebacker. Henderson's original recovery timetable was one year. He has a permanent titanium rod in the leg, a rare predicament for an NFL player.
Contingency: It seems likely that second-year player Jasper Brinkley will open the season as the Vikings' middle linebacker. The real question will be whether Brinkley handles all of the duties associated with that job, or if the Vikings will have outside linebacker Ben Leber call the defensive signals until Henderson's presumed return.
Green Bay PackersScott Boehm/Getty ImagesA computer simulation system predicts Green Bay will win the NFC North this season -- assuming a certain Minnesota quarterback retires.
Preseason predictions are a lot like flying lessons. You can practice and study and anticipate as much as you want while sitting in a simulator. The reality, however, is no one knows if you can fly a plane until you get up in the (real) air.

That's a pretentious, Minnesota cake-eating way of acknowledging the limited value of predicting in May who will sit atop the NFC North on the night of Jan. 2, 2011. But to the extent that it matters, and following up on our "faulty assumptions" discussion from last week, I think we are erring in assuming that Minnesota should be the preseason favorite to repeat as division champions.

In fact, if I had to pick a winner right now -- and I don't, and it doesn't matter, but I'm doing it anyway -- I would go with Green Bay. (Audience: Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.)

I'll state my case in a bit. But first, let's consider the most quantitative way I'm aware of to make these predictions. We first introduced you to AccuScore last summer as Brett Favre was moving closer to joining the Vikings. The AccuScore people develop variables to create digital profiles for NFL coaches and players. Those profiles are used to create "teams" that are then run through a computer simulation to play out a "season" based on each team's actual NFL schedule.

Using 10,000 such simulated seasons last year, AccuScore correctly predicted the NFC North's final standings. This year, as you can see in the charts below, AccuScore is picking Minnesota to win the division if Favre returns and the Packers if he doesn't.

ESPN.com's Spring Power Rankings also pick Minnesota to finish ahead of Green Bay, presumably based on similar expectations for Favre. But I think we should at least question whether Favre's presence automatically will give the Vikings a division title. These are two teams, after all, that finished within a game of each other last season, primarily as a result of Minnesota's season sweep.

(Sorry, Chicago and Detroit. My head isn't big enough to consider more than two division contenders right now.)

Here's where I'm coming from:

  1. Favre made an undeniable impact on the Vikings last season, but let's not forget it came as a result of arguably the best season of his career. He threw seven interceptions in 2009 after throwing at least twice that many in 14 of his previous 17 full seasons. To be fair, we can't rule out a repeat performance. But what do you think is more likely: A 2010 season closer to his career averages or another precedent-setter? If a modest slip accounts for even one additional loss, it could be enough for the Packers to leapfrog them in the standings.
  2. If Favre is less effective in 2010, it stands to reason he'll be less dangerous to the Packers' biggest weakness of last season: Pass defense against elite quarterbacks. When you look at Green Bay's schedule, you see eight games in which they will face a quarterback who has played in a Pro Bowl. But I would only consider three of those games -- two against Favre and one against New England's Tom Brady -- to feature the kind of elite passers who ravaged the Packers last season. And this doesn't take into account the possibility that the Packers' pass defense will improve independently of Favre's potential slide. I have my doubts about the Packers' potential for improvement, but it's conceivable the Vikings will be less equipped to exploit it.
  3. Jermichael FinleyAP Photo/Jim MoneTight end Jermichael Finley had a breakout season in 2009, catching 55 passes for 676 yards and 5 TDs.
  4. There are some areas in which Green Bay unquestionably has improved and Minnesota appears to have weakened since the start of last season. The Packers, for one, have a more balanced passing attack following the emergence of tight end Jermichael Finley. As long as 35-year-old receiver Donald Driver can provide another productive season, Green Bay has a yin-and-yang passing tree that will be much more difficult to defend than it was in the first half of 2009.
  5. The Packers also appear to have a better plan at offensive line than they had entering the 2009 season. They have a veteran starter locked in at both tackle positions with skilled younger players set to back up both of them. First-round draft pick Bryan Bulaga will play behind left tackle Chad Clifton and T.J. Lang likely will be behind right tackle Mark Tauscher. This scenario minimizes the chance of jailbreak pass "protection" that set back the Packers early last season.
  6. Minnesota's pass rush shouldn't miss a beat as long as defensive end Ray Edwards returns to complement Jared Allen and Kevin Williams. But the back seven is in an underdiscussed transition mode as spring practice begins. It's uncertain whether longtime middle linebacker E.J. Henderson will make a full return from a fractured leg, and the drop-off to second-year player Jasper Brinkley is notable. Starting cornerback Cedric Griffin will need several more months to rehabilitate a torn anterior cruciate ligament, leaving veterans Lito Sheppard and Benny Sapp to man his position. No NFL team seemed willing to give Sheppard or Sapp a starting job in free agency this year. And the Vikings only can hope that 33-year-old cornerback Antoine Winfield is fully recovered from a fractured foot that limited him last season.
  7. Green Bay's schedule gives the team a better chance to jump to an early division lead than the Vikings'. With games against Buffalo, Detroit, Washington and Miami, the Packers have a decent chance to be 5-1 or 6-0 heading into an Oct. 24 showdown against the Vikings at Lambeau Field. The Vikings, meanwhile, face difficult games at New Orleans and at the New York Jets. They'll have done well to be 4-2 at that point. But the bottom line is that there is a decent chance the Packers could establish a three-game lead in the division before November starts.

This is just one early-May take. I'm sure you have your own. Remember: We're still in the simulator. Nothing more. Let's take pleasure from a consequence-free environment.
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