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Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Chicago Bears in 2012.

Dream scenario (13-3): Tailback Matt Forte reports to training camp happy and healthy, either with a new contract or an acceptance of the franchise tag. His good will soothes the locker room and allows players to focus on football. Quarterback Jay Cutler leads the second coming of the 2008 Denver Broncos offense, connecting with receiver Brandon Marshall for 100-plus receptions, and the Bears finally find a Devin Hester "Package" that works. The aging defense remains sharp, rookie Shea McClellin provides an important balance to the pass rush and the Bears prove to be an NFC powerhouse.

Nightmare scenario: (7-9): Forte holds out from training camp, starting the summer off on a bad vibe. An offense that looks good on paper struggles to get organized under first-year coordinator Mike Tice. The Hester Package limits his effectiveness as a returner. McClellin isn't ready to be a three-down player. The defense gets old more quickly than expected, exposing the Bears' lack of young impact players.

We're Black and Blue All Over:

It was almost an afterthought amid discussion of quarterback Jay Cutler's new weapons, the weight loss of receiver Johnny Knox and the configuration of the offensive line. But we might as well acknowledge it: Newcomer Michael Bush was the Chicago Bears' first-team tailback during Wednesday's organized team activity as starter Matt Forte stays away from the facility in a contract dispute.

Forte has yet to sign his $7.7 million franchise tag while pushing for a long-term extension. If there is an end in sight to those negotiations, it hasn't been reported publicly. While no one thinks Forte will elect to miss regular-season games, it isn't clear if he'll report for any part of the Bears' offseason program or training camp.

Bush, via Jeff Dickerson of ESPNChicago.com: "Nobody has ever brought up Forte's name or wished he was here or anything to make me feel uncomfortable. But me being me, [I think] Forte needs to come on out so we can get it going. But I know he's got to take care of himself and his family as well."

To be continued.

Now for our morning spin around the division:

• The Bears signed free-agent defensive tackle Nate Collins to a one-year deal, according to Michael C. Wright of ESPNChicago.com.
• Dan Pompei of the Chicago Tribune on Knox: "This doesn't look like a man who will be taking the field in the foreseeable future to participate in a collision sport played against hulking behemoths and athletic freaks."
• David Haugh of the Chicago Tribune raises an interesting question: Should the Bears sign Cutler to a contract extension ahead of Forte?
• Detroit Lions receiver Calvin Johnson and some of his teammates tried their hand at bocce ball Wednesday, according to Carlos Monarrez of the Detroit Free Press.
• Lions place-kicker Jason Hanson isn't sure how long he plans to play, writes Chris McCosky of the Detroit News.
• Lions coach Jim Schwartz isn't ready to address the status of receiver Titus Young, according to Anwar S. Richardson of Mlive.com.
• Here's a Q&A with Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson by Rob Reischel of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
• It's clear the Packers want to beef up their defensive front, writes Rob Demovsky of the Green Bay Press-Gazette.
• The Packers have apparently put their playbooks on iPads, according to Jason Wilde of ESPNMilwaukee.com.
• Bob Sansevere of the St. Paul Pioneer Press speaks with new Minnesota Vikings place-kicker Blair Walsh.
• Opponents of the Vikings' stadium bill are still working to defeat it, according to Eric Roper of the Star Tribune.

Dozens of reporters descended Wednesday on the Chicago Bears' practice field for the first open organized team activity (OTA) of the 2012 offseason. Quarterback Jay Cutler was among those who spoke afterwards, and I thought I would run through a number of newsbits and offer some pithy but insightful comments to go with it.

Item: Receiver Johnny Knox, watching from the sidelines, revealed he lost 30 pounds during his recovery from spinal fusion surgery and remains 20 pounds below his playing weight.
Comment: Knox couldn't say whether he would play in 2012, but it's easy to see him sitting out the year. Everyone knows he suffered a serious injury, but given his gaunt appearance Wednesday, few us probably know the full extent. In February, don't forget, Knox said people wouldn't "be able to sleep" if they knew how close he was to never walking again.

Item: Cutler said the Bears' offensive situation is "a breath of fresh air" with longtime confidant Jeremy Bates serving as quarterbacks coach and Mike Tice now the offensive coordinator.
Comment: Cutler seemed to be referring to a healthy exchange of ideas between players and coaches on what will work in this offense and what won't. He has a decent track record in that regard, as we discussed last season, the Tice-Bates regime is clearly doing everything possible to meet Cutler's vision for the offense.

Item: The Bears' first-team offensive line included Chris Spencer at left guard, Lance Louis at right guard and a rotation of J'Marcus Webb and Chris Williams at left tackle. Presumed right tackle Gabe Carimi (knee) wasn't practicing.
Comment: There's noting scarier than a left tackle competition between a player who was moved away from the position two years ago (Williams) and one who probably shouldn't have been there in the first place (Webb). The reality is the Bears have only one position locked down: Roberto Garza at center.

Item: Cutler said that receiver Devin Hester "is having the best camp of all the receivers" and disagreed with suggestions that Hester's playing time should be limited.
Comment: I have to assume there is some kind of "get-Hester-confident" conspiracy going on at Halas Hall. Receiver Brandon Marshall has expressed similar sentiments. Unless, of course, the receiver light has suddenly turned on for Hester.

A committee of ESPN experts -- including Trent Dilfer, Mel Kiper, Gary Horton, Matt Williamson -- assembled this offseason to create a unique version of our traditional Power Rankings.

Naturally, NFC North teams are featured prominently in what amounts to a three-year projection of Power Rankings for the 2015 season . The Green Bay Packers received the top spot as the team best equipped to compete three years from now, while the Detroit Lions were not far behind at No. 6.

The file requires an Insider subscription to read in full, but I can pass along where our four teams ranked and also a glimpse at the methodology used. Here is how the committee evaluated each team and the degree of impact each category had:

• Roster (32.5 percent of total score): Players under 30 emphasized
• Coaching (20 percent): Capability and stability of current staff
• Quarterback (17.5 percent): Where quarterback play would be in three years
• Draft (15 percent): Based on team's 2012 class and how many picks available in next three years.
• Front office (15 percent): Ability to manage roster and market's attraction to free agents.

Now on to the NFC North rankings with comments from me:

1. Green Bay Packers
Seifert comment: The presence of a 28-year-old MVP quarterback and one of the NFL's top general manager-coach combinations puts the Packers on an ideal long-term path.

6. Detroit Lions
Seifert comment: Quarterback Matthew Stafford had a 5,000-yard season before his 24th birthday. That's a nice start. General manager Martin Mayhew has elevated the team's talent level every season of his tenure and most of the Lions' key players -- Stafford, receiver Calvin Johnson, tight end Brandon Pettigrew, defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, safety Louis Delmas and linebacker Stephen Tulloch -- are under 30.

17. Chicago Bears
Seifert comment: Jay Cutler is a legitimate franchise quarterback, but the best players on the Bears' defense are all over 30. That list includes defensive end Julius Peppers, linebackers Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs, and cornerback Charles Tillman.

31. Minnesota Vikings
Seifert comment: Questions about quarterback Christian Ponder's long-term prospects made it difficult for the committee to project future success. There are also concerns about a lack of young impact players on defense. Defensive end Jared Allen is 30 and linebacker Chad Greenway is 29.

We're Black and Blue All Over:

Chicago Bears linebacker Brian Urlacher confirmed Tuesday night that he isn't likely to participate in organized team activities (OTAs) -- and probably not veteran minicamp, either -- as he rehabilitates a sprained knee suffered in a Week 17 game against the Minnesota Vikings. Urlacher told reporters that he expects to be ready to start training camp, a completely reasonable schedule that nevertheless highlights one of the few holes on the team's roster.

Namely: Who would play for Urlacher if he was injured during the regular season?

According to ESPNChicago.com's Jeff Dickerson, second-year linebacker Dom DeCicco -- an undrafted free agent in 2011 -- will take the majority of snaps during the offseason. If nothing else, the Bears should know at the end of the spring whether DeCicco is capable of filling in for Urlacher in a regular-season environment, or whether they would need to look elsewhere. Finding a long-term replacement for Urlacher, 33, remains one of the most important challenges facing this franchise.

Continuing around the NFC North:

• Urlacher, via Vaughn McClure of the Chicago Tribune: "It's getting better. I'm on schedule, so I feel good. At this stage, I know the defense pretty well. I'm not worried about being out there and not knowing what I'm doing.''
• Bears receiver Brandon Marshall on his reunion with quarterback Jay Cutler and quarterbacks coach Jeremy Bates, via Sean Jensen of the Chicago Sun-Times: "That just doesn't happen in sports. You don’t have a Pro Bowl receiver and a Pro Bowl quarterback and one of the most talented minds in football in Jeremy Bates back together. It just doesn't."
• Mike Freeman of CBSSports.com thinks the Detroit Lions can contend for the Super Bowl -- "[b]ut only if this team can harness what is an amazing lack of self-control. The Lions remain one of the least disciplined teams in football."
• Bob Wojnowski of the Detroit News: "Dumb stuff happens in football, as in life. But the Lions have too much at stake now to be dealing with it, way too much to gain and way too much to lose. The spate of player incidents -- mostly minor -- is not a sign of a rambunctious team losing its way. But it's a pointed reminder that young talent is unpredictable, and a warning that the Lions' rough edges still need work."
• Lions cornerback Chris Houston isn't ready to be anyone's mentor, writes the News' Chris McCosky.
• Lori Nickel of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel covered the MACC Fund charity event in Milwaukee headlined by Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
• Packers coach Mike McCarthy on his 2012 team, via Mike Vandermause of the Green Bay Press-Gazette: "This is clearly the most experienced football team in conjunction with the most talent that I've had a chance to coach."
• Tom Oates of the Wisconsin State Journal: "The Green Bay Packers’ all-defense, all-the-time draft has already achieved one of its goals. The six rookie defenders have supplied a jolt of energy for a defense -- and a team -- that might have grown a little complacent after following up its victory in Super Bowl XLV with a 15-1 regular season in 2011."
• Packers linebacker Clay Matthews on moving to the right side, with rookie Nick Perry taking over on the left side, via Jason Wilde of ESPNMilwaukee.com: "The misnomer about the position is that we're stuck to one side. On paper, it's going to say 'left outside linebacker' or 'right outside linebacker.' Really, those positions are interchangeable, so the faster we can get [Perry] up to speed, the faster we can have some fun moving him around, flying around and making some plays together."
• Packers defensive end Anthony Hargrove didn't have much to add about his role in the New Orleans Saints' bounty story after Tuesday's OTA, according to Tyler Dunne of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
• The Packers' defensive additions in the draft were "expected" and "necessary," according to linebacker Desmond Bishop via Rob Demovsky of the Press-Gazette.
• Dave Campbell of the Associated Press looks ahead at the Minnesota Vikings' three-week stay for training camp.
• The Vikings have signed a total of seven of their draft picks, according to Jeremy Fowler of the St. Paul Pioneer Press.

On Friday, we gave you a look at the sartorial splendor of Chicago Bears receiver Brandon Marshall during the time he spent at ESPN headquarters in Bristol, Conn. Now let's look at some of the bold talk Marshall presented during his various appearances.

In the video cut of his time on "First Take," we hear Marshall say: "Honestly I think we can not only make it to the Super Bowl but I think we'll have a chance to win it."

And during his appearance on "NFL Live," Marshall offered this assessment of the NFC North when asked what the Bears need to do to keep up with the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions: "I look at it the other way. You have to pay respect to the Packers because they won the division, but those teams don't have a defense like we do. On the offensive side of the ball, we know what we have in Matt Forte and Jay Cutler, and adding me to the passing game -- and opening up other alleys for Devin Hester and Earl [Bennett] -- it's just going to make our offense and our team that much better. But what we have that they don't have is that defense."

Do we really have to wait four more months for the season to start????

We're Black and Blue All Over:

The Minnesota Vikings' training camp at Minnesota State University, Mankato, has grown shorter in recent years because of scheduling conflicts related to the school's fall semester. Those conflicts have been eliminated for 2012, however, opening the door for the Vikings to have a full three-week camp on the campus this summer.

The team has announced it will report July 26 and break camp on Aug. 16.

For those curious, the Vikings have had to break camp early in recent years because the dormitory rooms they use in Gage Hall need to be cleared for incoming students. Those dormitories are being "retired" and won't house students this fall.

Continuing around the NFC North:

• The Vikings are "quietly thrilled" about how little commitment they had to make to sign receiver Jerome Simpson, writes Tom Pelissero of 1500ESPN.com.
• The question of quarterback Christian Ponder's aptitude will hang over the Vikings for some time, writes Patrick Reusse of the Star Tribune.
• The Detroit Lions did not immediately sign German receiver Christian Bollmann after a Wednesday workout, according to Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press.
• Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford is working to fight childhood obesity, according to the Detroit News.
• Rookie safety Alonzo Lawrence is ready for a fresh start with the Lions, notes Justin Rogers of Mlive.com.
• Chicago Bears receiver Brandon Marshall won't face NFL discipline if New York City police don't charge him after a March incident outside a nightclub, according to Dan Pompei of the Chicago Tribune.
• Writing for the Tribune, former NFL player Matt Bowen had no problems about the uncertainty Bears quarterback Jay Cutler expressed this week with his offensive line. Bowen: "I have no issues with these comments and I really don't see this as Cutler calling out his offensive line. Not even close. This is much more about the quarterback telling his guys they need to play with some accountability as pros."
• Charlie Peprah considers himself one of the Green Bay Packers' starting safeties, writes Weston Hodkiewicz of the Green Bay Press-Gazette.
• Packers coach Mike McCarthy was impressed with safety Jerron McMillian during last weekend's rookie minicamp, McCarthy told Sirius radio via Jason Wilde of ESPNMilwaukee.com.

» NFC pressure points: West | North | South | East
» AFC pressure points: West | North | South | East

Examining who faces the most challenging season for the Chicago Bears and why.

For months, the Chicago Bears have systematically picked off their roster holes, large and small. They traded for receiver Brandon Marshall, giving quarterback Jay Cutler his long-sought "big target." They signed backups at quarterback (Jason Campbell) and running back (Michael Bush), drafted a pass-rusher (Shea McClellin) to complement Julius Peppers, and added another big receiver in rookie Alshon Jeffery.

But rather than address two years of uneven play along their offensive line with additional personnel upgrades, the Bears instead placed their faith in new offensive coordinator Mike Tice to handle that job. The Bears are confident that Tice's background as an offensive line coach will ensure a scheme that offers his blockers plenty of help and limits the difficulty of the position they find themselves under.

In the end, however, football is about the skills of the players more than it is the schemes of the coaches. If Tice can't help the Bears' incumbent linemen play at a winning level, then the rest of the Bears' upgrades won't matter for much. That's an awful lot of pressure to put on one coach.

I thought Jay Cutler's comments this week about the Chicago Bears' offensive line were entirely fair and appropriate. In this week's Blogger Blitz video, I explain why.

You'll have a chance to test my now-extensive knowledge of the NFC North's rookie class during our SportsNation chat Tuesday afternoon. (It's at 2 p.m. ET for those uninitiated.) Feel free to ask about the Chicago Bears' offensive line, especially considering the tepid endorsement it received this week from Bears quarterback Jay Cutler. You might have some final thoughts on the Minnesota Vikings' new stadium or the Detroit Lions' secondary or even my analysis of Donald Driver's dance moves. Just don't ask about the Empathy Paradox. Sooooo tired of that one.

We're Black and Blue All Over:

So I tuned in to "Dancing with the Stars" as promised Monday night. It won't rival "LOST" or even "Al TV" on my personal list of favorites. But one of the NFC North's most prominent players over the past decade is a cast member, and I'm well aware of the interest level from many Green Bay Packers fans in Driver's fate on the show.

As it turned out, Driver scored a combined 57 out of a possible 60 on his two dances of the evening, putting him in third place on the judges' scorecard. But that is only part of the final score, and we'll find out Tuesday night whether audience/viewer voting impacted the ranking and who exactly will advance to the finals of the show.

I took away a couple cool moments Monday night. On the day after Mother's Day, Driver tearfully praised his mother, Faye, for being "my soldier for a long time." Also, I laughed when the camera panned the audience after Driver absorbed some criticism from a judge. You could see Packers coach Mike McCarthy with the same quizzical facial expression he usually directs at officials during games. McCarthy sat right next to quarterback Aaron Rodgers and linebacker Clay Matthews. Very solid support.

Continuing around the NFC North:

• Michael Hunt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel thinks the "handwriting is on the ballroom floor for" Driver's departure from the organization.
• The Packers signed five players who participated in their rookie minicamp on a tryout basis, notes the Green Bay Press-Gazette.
• Detroit Lions rookie receiver Ryan Broyles on what he picked up by watching rookie minicamp, via Rod Beard of the Detroit News: "It's a great offense. I've been catching on a little bit now and see how they do it -- a lot like Oklahoma. They like to get out there and run three receivers -- sometimes four -- and even empty the backfield, so I think it's going to be a good offense to be a part of."
• Lions defensive tackle Nick Fairley's court date stemming from an April marijuana arrest was moved back to July 31, according to Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press.
• Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler on the right thumb he fractured last season, via the Associated Press: "It's fine. I really didn't throw a lot in the offseason, rehabbed a little bit and came back and felt good."
• Cutler isn't going along with the Bears' rampant optimism about their offensive line, notes Sean Jensen of the Chicago Sun-Times. Cutler: "You know, the offensive line is definitely going to be a concern and seeing where those guys are going to fit in and seeing what five we go with. If Gabe [Carimi] comes back, if J'Marcus [Webb] pans out. Where are we going to put Chris Williams? There are some question marks there. Until we really get that resolved and get our front five settled in, we've got some work to do on offense."
• Signs still point to the Bears moving Williams back to tackle, according to Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune.
• Judd Zulgad of 1500ESPN.com digs a little deeper into the friendship between Minnesota Vikings receivers Jarius Wright and Greg Childs.
• The Vikings' new stadium deal shields the public from their financial books, notes the Associated Press.

We're Black and Blue All Over:

Good morning. Three rookie minicamps over the weekend leaves us with more local links than a person has the right to expect on the second Monday in May. In this post, I've tried to pick out the highlights. Many of them don't relate to rookies, but be aware I'll have a second post up soon that addresses some of the questions we had Friday about these camps.

• New Chicago Bears offensive coordinator Mike Tice wants players to "play fast" in his scheme, according to Michael C. Wright of ESPNChicago.com. Tice: "We don’t want to be out on the field and have the kids think[ing] too much. We don't want to make it hard for the kids. We want to make sure the kids know exactly what we’re gonna do, when we're gonna call it and why we’re gonna call it. That's our job as coaches. We have some great athletes on offense. We have to put them in a position to show us and show the fans, and show the people that love the Bears, their athleticism and explosiveness. We want to be explosive."
• Bears special teams coordinator Dave Toub downplayed any possibility other than Devin Hester being his top punt and kickoff returner in 2012. Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune has more.
• Sean Jensen of the Chicago Sun-Times checks in with former Bears defensive tackle Tommie Harris, whose wife died unexpectedly three months ago.
• New Bears quarterbacks coach Jeremy Bates will have starter Jay Cutler rolling more often than he did under Mike Martz, according to Dan Pompei of the Tribune.
• Detroit Lions defensive end/linebacker Ronnell Lewis is "nicknamed the Hammer for a reason," writes Bob Wojnowski of the Detroit News.
• Receiver Ryan Broyles was an "impatient observer" at the Lions' rookie minicamp, notes Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press.
• Justin Rogers of Mlive.com offers five observations from the Lions' camp, including: "Linebacker Travis Lewis looked very comfortable in the defensive scheme, playing both outside and middle linebacker."
• Green Bay Packers tight end Andrew Quarless (knee) isn't expected to be cleared to practice when training camp begins, according to Tyler Dunne of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
• Pete Dougherty of the Green Bay Press-Gazette takes a look at the Packers' current in-house options as a developmental center. He also notes the Packers have three assistant coaches who played center in the NFL.
• The Packers might not give much training camp work to defensive linemen Mike Neal and Anthony Hargrove, both of whom are suspended during the early part of the season. Jason Wilde of ESPNMilwaukee.com has more.
• Minnesota Gov. Mark Dayton will formally sign the Minnesota Vikings' stadium bill on Monday, according to the Associated Press via 1500ESPN.com.
• Richard Meryhew of the Star Tribune looks at the challenges of designing, planning and building the team's new stadium in a four-year timeline.
• New Vikings receiver Jerome Simpson on his recent 15-day jail sentence, via Bob Sansevere of the St. Paul Pioneer Press: "It was terrible. It sucked. Any kids out there, that's a place you don't want to be. Somebody tells you when to wake up, when to make your bed, when to take a shower, when you can have a snack. That's an obstacle you don't want to face. I want all kids to learn not to go down that path and to learn from me."

We're Black and Blue All Over:

News that Detroit Lions running back Jahvid Best will be cleared for football activities in June was not unexpected but still odd for its timing.

Best has been recovering from two concussions suffered last season. The Lions have maintained optimism about his return while noting it is impossible to project a timetable on his recovery. So general manager Martin Mayhew's announcement means one of two things:

Either Best has already passed the medical tests required for full participation and the Lions are simply waiting until next month to put him on the field. Or, the timing of his progress suggests his recovery will be complete next month. The latter is not quite as definitive.

Ultimately, though, the big-picture news is that it continues to appear likely that Best will be ready when the Lions begin their serious on-field preparations for the 2012 season.

Continuing around the NFC North:

• The Lions signed veteran receiver Lance Long, notes Anwar S. Richardson of Mlive.com.
• Lions running back Mikel Leshoure has a preliminary exam hearing on May 11 in connection with two marijuana-related legal entanglements, according to Eric Lacy of the Detroit News.
• The Minnesota Vikings released running back Caleb King, who was arrested over the weekend in connection with an alleged assault. The St. Paul Pioneer Press has more on the story of a running back who spent most of last season on the Vikings' practice squad.
• The Star Tribune has the latest on an unexpected twist to the Vikings' stadium bill, including the fact that the bill's authors were not looped in on a new idea for a roofless, bonded stadium.
• The Green Bay Packers are likely to shuffle their front office now that the draft is complete, writes Rob Demovsky of the Green Bay Press-Gazette.
• The selection of linebacker Nick Perry is a risk, writes Tyler Dunne of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
• The Packers' NFC North rivals spent the draft trying to fortify themselves to beat Green Bay, writes Tom Oates of the Wisconsin State Journal.
• Troy offensive lineman James Brown could be a sleeper for the Chicago Bears, according to Mark Potash of the Chicago Sun-Times.
• Bears receiver Earl Bennett told a 670-AM, via the Chicago Tribune, that quarterback Jay Cutler and his fiancé, Kristin Cavallari, are expecting a boy.

» NFC draft analysis: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

The 2012 NFL draft is in the books. Our silly little arguments on left tackles and injured receivers seem so long ago. Oh, the memories….

In a few years, we'll be able to evaluate this draft with a measure of accuracy. For now, let's just consider some immediate highlights and lowlights.

BEST MOVE

The Green Bay Packers fielded arguably the best offense in franchise history last season. Their defense, on the other hand, allowed more passing yards (4,796) than any NFL team that has ever played. So let's award the "Best Move" title to the Packers' decision to deeply supplement their defensive personnel in this draft.

The Packers selected six consecutive defensive players to open this affair, the result of unprecedented maneuvering by general manager Ted Thompson -- who traded up as many times in this draft (three) as he had in his six previous drafts combined. Speaking to reporters in Green Bay, Thompson joked that he is "ashamed" and it was "pathetic" to have given up three of his 11 picks in those trade-ups, but to me that spoke to how seriously the Packers took their defensive slide last season.

Thompson insisted that there was "no intent to do it that way," but that would make for one heck of a coincidence, wouldn't it? Regardless of why it happened, the Packers came away with a pair of pass-rushers/disruptors in linebacker Nick Perry (No. 28 overall) and defensive lineman Jerel Worthy (No. 51) and two defensive backs -- cornerback Casey Hayward (No. 62) and safety Jerron McMillian (No. 133) -- who will have opportunities to compete for immediate playing time.

Worthy, Hayward and linebacker Terrell Manning (No. 163) were the three players Thompson traded up for, giving you an idea of how strongly he must have felt about them. Will this group stabilize the Packers' defense in 2012? It's impossible to predict individual performances, but generally speaking I'll go with this theory: The more the merrier.

MOST SURPRISING MOVE

The Detroit Lions had already used their first-round pick on a future need, Iowa tackle Riley Reiff, when they grabbed Oklahoma receiver Ryan Broyles in the second round. Not only did the Lions already have a deep set of pass catchers, but Broyles is still recovering from a torn ACL suffered last November.

So yes, it was initially surprising to see a match between the Lions and Broyles, even though it was easy to understand how the Lions made the decision. As we discussed at the time, the Lions follow their board in as tightly wrapped-up of a vacuum as any team in the NFL. Although they had significant need at cornerback and safety, they had Broyles rated higher and that was that.

Hopefully, those of you who were angry and didn't buy that explanation were assuaged by the latter stages of the Lions' draft. They chose three cornerbacks -- Louisiana-Lafayette's Dwight Bentley at No. 85, Albion's Chris Greenwood at No. 148 and New Mexico State's Jonte Green at No. 196 -- over their next five selections and finished with six consecutive defensive picks overall.

RISKIEST MOVE

The riskiest move in this draft was one that actually didn't happen. The Chicago Bears did nothing to address their personnel along the offensive line, first in free agency and now the draft.

It's true that a pair of 2011 starters who suffered season-ending injuries, tackle Gabe Carimi and guard Chris Williams, will return in 2012. And the promotion of Mike Tice to offensive coordinator should provide linemen with more help and less one-on-one responsibility than they had in the previous two seasons.

But the bottom line is the Bears have been forced to undergo multiple rounds of midseason patchwork in each of the past two seasons to lessen the punishment on quarterback Jay Cutler. When coach Lovie Smith said last month that he was confident in his current lineup, many of us wondered if he was just covering the Bears' draft plans.

He wasn't, which means the Bears are setting themselves up for another choppy season of personnel changes if their confidence proves unfounded.

FILE IT AWAY

We noted before the draft that the NFC North stood on the precipice of transition from the Black and Blue to the Air and Space division. You could make an argument that all four NFC North teams had a need at running back, especially the Packers and Lions. But as the NFL continues to move toward the passing game, it was reasonable to wonder whether anyone would act on those needs.

They did not. In fact, not a single running back was drafted in this division through the first six rounds. The Packers declined to take one in spite of a thin backfield led by injury-prone James Starks. The Lions, meanwhile, didn't deem it necessary despite the questionable health histories of Jahvid Best, Mikel Leshoure and Kevin Smith.

Message sent, huh?

We're Black and Blue All Over:

Happy (first) Draft Day! We're getting a bit of a late start Thursday because this day isn't really going to end for about 60 hours or so, when the final pick of the 2012 draft is made late Saturday afternoon. It'll be a blur, but the best kind of blur, if you know what I mean. (And yes, Twitter followers, the overnight break did in fact include an unexpected but most appreciated viewing of "Weekend at Bernie's.")

You probably have guessed this, but my plan is to cover Thursday night's first round from the Minnesota Vikings' draft headquarters in Eden Prairie, Minn. So there will be a Vikings focus Thursday night, but that should be expected when a team has the No. 3 overall pick (at least for now). Rest assured we will account for the first-round picks of all four NFC North teams in a substantive way before the evening is complete.

I'll have some final thoughts to post as we await the 8 p.m. ET first pick, but for now let's take a mid-morning spin around the division:

• All things considered, a defensive end seems like the Chicago Bears' most likely target in the first round, writes Dan Pompei of the Chicago Tribune.
• We really don't know what we have yet in new Bears general manager Phil Emery, writes Melissa Isaacson of ESPNChicago.com.
• Rick Morrissey of the Chicago Sun-Times doesn't get the expectation of a defensive pick. Morrissey: "Was anybody paying attention last season when Jay Cutler was healthy? Did that look like a Super Bowl offense to you? Not once last season did I say to myself, 'If the Bears only had a defensive end to take the pressure off Julius Peppers, they'd win a championship!'"
• In his mock draft, Pompei has the Bears taking Illinois defensive end Whitney Mercilus at No. 19 overall.
• Mercilus goes to the Detroit Lions at No. 23 in the final mock draft of Detroit Free Press writer Dave Birkett.
• The same goes for the mock draft of Justin Rogers of Mlive.com.
• Chris McCosky of the Detroit News makes a case for the Lions drafting North Alabama cornerback Janoris Jenkins.
• Drew Sharp of the Detroit Free Press: "But whomever [the Lions] draft over the next couple of days, they had better make sure that these picks don't embarrass the franchise as last year's class did with its recklessness -- with four accusations by police of marijuana possession."
• The Green Bay Packers have no choice but to focus on their pass rush in this draft, writes Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
• McGinn gives the Packers Boise State linebacker Shea McClellin with the No. 28 overall pick.
• McClellin is the best fit for the Packers, writes Pete Dougherty of the Green Bay Press-Gazette.
• Mark Craig of the Star Tribune gives the Vikings USC left tackle Matt Kalil at No. 3 in his mock draft.
• The decision between Kalil and LSU cornerback Morris Claiborne will be complicated, writes Tom Pelissero of 1500ESPN.com.
• It's a much more simple choice for Tom Powers of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. Powers thinks the obvious choice is Kalil and writes that general manager Rick Spielman's only decision is: "To be (an idiot) or not to be (an idiot), that is the question."
• Bob Sansevere of the St. Paul Pioneer Press would be surprised if the Vikings take Kalil.