ESPN NFL

» AFC Scenarios: East | West | North | South » NFC: East | West | North | South

Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Detroit Lions in 2012.

Dream scenario (12-4): The team moves past its string of silly/immature problems, tightening up not only its off-field behavior but also its discipline on the field during games. Mikel Leshoure and Jahvid Best give the Lions a power/speed dimension in the backfield they lacked for most of last season. Rookie receiver Ryan Broyles' knee heals quickly enough to provide a legitimate fourth option among receivers and further spread out opposing defenses. Defensive tackle Nick Fairley realizes his playmaking potential and teams up with Ndamukong Suh to provide consistent and dominant interior play. Fairley, Suh, Cliff Avril and Kyle Vanden Bosch protect an undermanned secondary, and the Lions make big defensive plays against opponents that feel pressure to keep up with Detroit's offense.

Nightmare scenario (7-9): Best and Leshoure don't provide the balance the Lions hope for, either because of injuries or skill deterioration. Broyles takes longer than expected to return, Titus Young has a sophomore slump, and opponents flock to receiver Calvin Johnson. Left tackle Jeff Backus can't hold up for another season. Despite the formidable defensive line, the Lions can't cover for their secondary and give up too many big plays.

EDEN PRAIRIE, Minn. -- Thanks to everyone for bearing with me during a fast-paced and surprising first round of the NFL draft. I told you ahead of time that my focus would be on the Minnesota Vikings, given their spot at No. 3 overall, but that I would account for each of the NFC North's first-round picks in a substantive way.

I did that as best I could as the first round sped on. We have months to pull apart and dissect this draft, but for now it occurs to me that there might be some question about what position three of our five first-round picks will play when training camp begins this summer.

Let's work through that issue for Shea McClellin and the Chicago Bears, Riley Reiff and the Detroit Lions, and Nick Perry and the Green Bay Packers before calling it a night (or early morning).

McClellin played defensive end and middle linebacker at Boise State and was projected by many teams as an ideal 3-4 outside linebacker. The Bears run a 4-3, of course, and general manager Phil Emery said he will begin his career at left defensive end, opposite of right end Julius Peppers.

"We like him at D-end," Emery told reporters in Chicago. "He has versatility, if we were to have a string of injuries, to play 'Sam' [linebacker], but we like who he is as a football player better as an end than at linebacker for us."

While McClellin seemed destined to play outside linebacker for a 3-4 team, it was assumed Perry would land with a 4-3 team so he could play defensive end. That was his position at USC, and he'll need to make a significant adjustment with the Packers.

General manager Ted Thompson told reporters that Perry's athletic ability should smooth the transition.

"He's played with his hand on the ground," Thompson said, "and we're convinced he's athletic enough to play standing up and do some of the things that we do."

Packers defensive coordinator Dom Capers told reporters that the "top priority" for outside linebackers is to "have that explosive ability to come off the edge."

Capers added: "Some of the coverage stuff we'll be doing with him will be a learning process, but that isn't uncommon with these guys."

Finally, pre-draft discussion centered around whether Reiff projected as left or right tackle in the NFL. Lions general manager Martin Mayhew told reporters that Reiff could play up to four positions, but coach Jim Schwartz said: "Riley is a left tackle."

Schwartz added: "He fits the criteria for that position."

That makes Reiff the heir apparent to incumbent Jeff Backus, but the succession might not occur until 2013 or even 2014.

Now that we know McClellin will play defensive end, Perry projects as an outside linebacker and Reiff as a left tackle, we can close up shop for Thursday night/Friday morning. Back with you a bit later on Friday morning. Peace out.

ESPN.com's Mel Kiper Jr. has produced a two-round mock draft this week. Let's dive in, knowing that the entire file requires an Insider subscription and that you should be eternally grateful to me for lifting the NFC North-relevant information for you.

3. Minnesota Vikings
Mel's picks: USC offensive lineman Matt Kalil. Second round: Notre Dame safety Harrison Smith
Seifert comment: Smith is a borderline first-round pick. Getting a starting safety at the top of the second round would be nice value. As for Kalil, Mel remains in the camp that refuses to overthink the Vikings' choice at No. 3.

19. Chicago Bears
Mel's picks: Illinois defensive end Whitney Mercilus. Second round: LSU receiver Rueben Randle
Seifert comment: Most mockers have dropped away from the idea of the Bears selecting a receiver in the first round, partially because Notre Dame's Michael Floyd figures to be long gone by No. 19. A lineman for either side of the ball seems reasonable, and getting Randle in the bottom third of the second round seems like a good value.

23. Detroit Lions
Mel's picks: Stanford offensive lineman Jonathan Martin. Second round: Montana cornerback Trumaine Johnson
Seifert comment: Both players make sense as far as needs go. Johnson has gotten a lot of publicity in this draft despite playing at Montana. You would think he would have an immediate chance to start. Martin would get a year behind Jeff Backus.

28. Green Bay Packers
Mel's picks: USC linebacker Nick Perry. Second round: Nebraska defensive lineman Jared Crick
Seifert comment: Defense, defense, defense. It's also notable that Mel didn't feel compelled to draft Wisconsin center Peter Konz for the Packers. I agree on that one.

» AFC Assessments: East | West | North | South » NFC: East | West | North | South

Chicago Bears

Key additions: Running back Michael Bush, linebacker/special teams Blake Costanzo, quarterback Jason Campbell, receiver Brandon Marshall (trade), receiver Devin Thomas, receiver/returner Eric Weems.

Key losses: Running back Marion Barber (retired), cornerback Zack Bowman, cornerback Corey Graham.

Come on back: Lost in the shuffle of the Marshall trade were the return of three free agents who should play key roles in 2012. Tight end Kellen Davis figures to get an expanded role in offensive coordinator Mike Tice's scheme, especially as a receiver. Cornerback Tim Jennings should retain his starting role opposite Charles Tillman, with D.J. Moore in the nickel. And safety Craig Steltz will provide reliable depth at safety and will be one of the Bears' special teams leaders after the departure of Graham and Bowman.

What's next: There is no urgency yet, but the Bears will need to make peace with tailback Matt Forte at some point before the summer. Forte isn't happy that he's been made the Bears' franchise player and briefly lost his public composure when Bush signed a deal that guaranteed him about the same amount of money as the franchise tag will pay Forte. It's not a big deal if Forte skips the Bears' offseason program or even misses a few days of training camp, but the Bears will want to find a way to eliminate this issue by early August. Meanwhile, it wouldn't be surprising if the Bears address their offensive line during the draft.

Detroit Lions

Key additions: Defensive end Everette Brown, cornerback Jacob Lacey.

Key losses: Cornerback Eric Wright.

All in the family: With the exception of Wright, the Lions were able to retain the core of their 10-6 team. Among those who re-signed: Tackle Jeff Backus, safety Erik Coleman, defensive end Andre Fluellen, quarterback Shaun Hill and linebacker Stephen Tulloch. And don't forget that receiver Calvin Johnson is locked up for perhaps the rest of his career. He signed a new eight-year contract worth $132 million.

What's next: The Lions appear interested in adding competition at safety, having hosted free agent O.J. Atogwe earlier this month. Adding a safety remains a possibility, if not through free agency, then probably through the draft. And while Backus is re-signed for two years, it wouldn't be surprising if the Lions look for a long-term replacement in the draft.

Green Bay Packers

Key additions: Defensive lineman Daniel Muir, center Jeff Saturday, defensive lineman Anthony Hargrove.

Key losses: Quarterback Matt Flynn, center Scott Wells.

Shocker: The Packers usually do whatever it takes to keep their own players and avoid having to search the free-agent market for other the castoffs of other teams. They started off that way by re-signing tight end Jermichael Finley to a two-year contract, but when they were unable to sign center Scott Wells, they quickly targeted veteran Jeff Saturday and made him their first starting-caliber free-agent signee in five years. General manager Ted Thompson also authorized the acquisition of Hargrove and the pursuit of Dave Tollefson.

What's next: It's not out of the question that the Packers will add a veteran pass-rusher, whether at defensive end or linebacker. Then they'll get back into their comfort zone and start preparing for the draft, where it's reasonable to think they'll use at least one of their 12 picks on a center while also continuing to pursue pass-rushers.

Minnesota Vikings

Key additions: Cornerback Zack Bowman, tight end John Carlson, running back Jerome Felton and offensive lineman Geoff Schwartz.

Key losses: Nose tackle Remi Ayodele (release), guards Anthony Herrera (release) and Steve Hutchinson (release), tight end Jim Kleinsasser (retire), running back Jerome Felton.

Methodical methodology: The Vikings made one big-money signing, bringing in Carlson as a new weapon for quarterback Christian Ponder, and otherwise have spent their offseason getting younger and signing complementary players. General manager Rick Spielman wants to end a cycle of seeking blue-chip players via free agency and instead count on the drafts for his difference-makers.

What's next: One way or the other, the Vikings need to find a deep threat for Ponder. The draft would seem the most likely place for that will happen. They are also midway through a rebuild of the secondary that could use at least one more cornerback and perhaps two safeties.

We're Black and Blue All Over:

We had some fun Wednesday afternoon when the #FreeStanton hashtag started on Twitter. As you recall, former Detroit Lions quarterback Drew Stanton spent only a few days as the New York Jets' No. 2 before the acquisition of Tim Tebow via trade.

It's a harsh business, and Stanton might just have to deal with the turn of events. But the NFL Network's Jason La Canfora reported Wednesday night that he wouldn't be surprised if Stanton asks for a trade or a release.

Stanton "was promised team not looking at" adding additional quarterbacks this offseason, according to La Canfora.

Best of luck to Drew on that one.

#FreeStanton.

Continuing around the NFC North:

• This offseason has been "classic" Martin Mayhew for the Lions, writes Chris McCosky of the Detroit News.
• The Lions' deal with left tackle Jeff Backus is worth about $6 million over two years, according to Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press.
• The contract signed by Green Bay Packers special-teams captain Jarrett Bush is worth an average of $1.75 million per season, according to Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
• Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers was hit five times and sacked twice in the 2011 game in which the New Orleans Saints placed a bounty on him, according to Rob Demovsky of the Green Bay Press-Gazette.
• The Minnesota Vikings gave nose tackle Remi Ayodele a signing bonus of more than $3.5 million in 2011, notes Dan Wiederer of the Star Tribune. Ayodele was released Wednesday.
• Minnesota state legislators are waiting word on whether the Minneapolis City Council will support the Minnesota Vikings stadium plan before moving forward on it, according to Doug Belden of the St. Paul Pioneer Press.
• It's "absurd" to think that the Chicago Bears would replace Devin Hester, writes Sean Jensen of the Chicago Sun-Times.
• Dan Pompei of the Chicago Tribune: "I think the Bears' perception of their offensive line is not the same as the public's perception of their offensive line."
• Michael C. Wright of ESPNChicago.com has a breakdown of the Bears' recent contract signings.

We're Black and Blue All Over:

We haven't heard too much about the Detroit Lions' attempts to re-sign middle linebacker Stephen Tulloch, but you wonder if his status will shake loose one way or the other this week.

The Lions are scheduled to host free agent linebacker David Hawthorne this week, notes Anwar S. Richardson of Mlive.com. Hawthorne was a starter the past three seasons for the Seattle Seahawks and could be a backup plan to signing Tulloch. If nothing else, his visit could trigger a break in negotiations that haven't yet yielded a deal.

Continuing around the NFC North:

• Richardson writes that the Lions' chances of agreeing to a long-term deal with defensive end Cliff Avril anytime soon are slim.
• Re-signing left tackle Jeff Backus was important, writes Terry Foster of the Detroit News.
• Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press explains the Lions' approach to free agency this season.
• The Chicago Bears have always had interest in new backup quarterback Jason Campbell, writes Dan Pompei of the Chicago Tribune.
• Pro Bowl receiver Larry Fitzgerald said that people should "get to know" new Bears receiver Brandon Marshall before judging him, according to Sean Jensen of the Chicago Sun-Times.
• Vaughn McClure of the Tribune talks to friends about Marshall.
• Green Bay Packers coach Mike McCarthy helped convince Seattle Seahawks general manager John Schneider to sign free agent quarterback Matt Flynn, tweets ESPN's Chris Mortensen.
• Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel takes a detailed look at the compensatory draft pick system and how it will be affected by the Flynn signing.
• The Packers could lose free agent defensive back/special teams captain Jarrett Bush, notes Jason Wilde of ESPNMilwaukee.com.
• The Minnesota Vikings agreed to terms with running back Lex Hilliard, who spent the past three years with the Miami Dolphins, according to Judd Zulgad of 1500ESPN.com.
• Hilliard will have a chance to win the Vikings' No. 3 running back job, writes Jeremy Fowler of the St. Paul Pioneer Press.
• The Vikings are still shopping for free agents, coach Leslie Frazier told Sid Hartman of the Star Tribune.

The Detroit Lions' decision to bring free agent left tackle Marcus McNeill for a visit reminds us that, if nothing else, the return of veteran Jeff Backus is not a foregone conclusion. So does the fact that Ohio State offensive tackle Mike Adams is taking a visit to Detroit on Thursday as well.

Backus had surgery in January to repair a torn biceps muscle and is a 34-year-old free agent. The Lions know they will have to move on at some point, but most indications suggested that it wouldn't happen this year. Given his age and recent surgery, Backus doesn't figure to be swamped with offers in the coming days, and for now the Lions are at least reviewing their options.

McNeill is an intriguing player with a long medical file whom the Lions almost certainly would want their medical staff to check out. A top prospect in 2006, McNeill's draft status fell because he had been diagnosed with spinal stenosis, a narrowing of the spine. He didn't miss a game in his first two NFL seasons, making the Pro Bowl in 2006 and 2007, but he has now had two fusion surgeries to repair injuries in his neck. The last, to correct an injury that cost him the final seven games of 2011, came in December.

That history would give any team reason for pause, and it's why the Chargers released him earlier this week. But players with the physical attributes to play left tackle are hard to find, and McNeill has them. Given their precarious situation at such an important position, the Lions owe it to themselves to make their own medical judgment on his future.

Adams, meanwhile, is ranked as the fifth-best tackle available in the draft by ESPN analyst Mel Kiper .

» AFC Free-Agency Primer: East | West | North | South » NFC: East | West | North | South

Free agency begins Tuesday at 4 p.m. ET

Chicago Bears

Key free agents: Tight end Kellen Davis, running back Matt Forte (franchise), cornerback Corey Graham, quarterback Caleb Hanie, defensive end Israel Idonije, cornerback Tim Jennings, quarterback Josh McCown, safety Brandon Meriweather and receiver Roy Williams.

Where they stand: The Bears will have the most salary-cap space among NFC North teams, upwards of $30 million, and have plenty of potential uses for it. Quarterback Jay Cutler needs more targets in the downfield passing game, whether it's at the receiver or tight end position. And new general manager Phil Emery must start restocking a defense led by four players more than 30 years old: Linebackers Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs, defensive end Julius Peppers and cornerback Charles Tillman.

What to expect: It's widely believed the Bears will be in the running for free-agent receiver Vincent Jackson. But Jackson's price tag could be steep and no one knows if Emery will prove to be a big spender. It seems likely he will re-sign Davis, and Emery should also save some of his cap space to extend Forte's contract. Secondary receiver targets could include Marques Colston. Bears fans are hoping the team will pursue defensive end Mario Williams, but it's hard to imagine the Bears budgeting for Williams two years after breaking their bank on Peppers.

Detroit Lions

Key free agents: Defensive end Cliff Avril (franchise), left tackle Jeff Backus, safety Chris Harris, quarterback Shaun Hill, linebacker DeAndre Levy (restricted), running back Maurice Morris, running back Kevin Smith, quarterback Drew Stanton, linebacker Stephen Tulloch and cornerback Eric Wright.

Where they stand: The Lions are tight against the salary cap after franchising Avril and aren't likely to be big spenders on the free-agent market. They could relieve the situation by reaching long-term agreements with Avril and/or receiver Calvin Johnson, who has a $22 million cap figure for 2012. Tulloch made a big impact last season after signing a one-year deal, but so far the Lions' attention has turned elsewhere.

What to expect: The Lions' best-case scenario is to keep their 2011 core together without mortgaging their future relative to the salary cap. That would mean getting Tulloch re-signed to preserve the linebacker group they upgraded last season by signing him and veteran Justin Durant, moves that allowed Levy to play on the outside. Hill seems likely to re-sign as Matthew Stafford's backup, while Stanton might test the free-agent waters to see if he has a chance to do better than third on a team's depth chart.

Green Bay Packers

Key free agents: Cornerback Jarrett Bush, quarterback Matt Flynn, running back Ryan Grant and center Scott Wells.

Where they stand: The Packers took care of a big challenge by signing tight end Jermichael Finley to a two-year contract last month. They will let Flynn depart for a possible starting job elsewhere and it appears Grant will test the free-agent market. Discussions with Wells haven't led to an agreement, but the Packers often go to the final moments before reaching a deal. There are no obvious internal replacements for Wells, making his return a priority.

What to expect: The Packers will have some flexibility with the salary cap, but general manager Ted Thompson's aversion to veteran free agency is well known. It's been three years since he signed a veteran unrestricted free agent in the offseason. The Packers have needs at defensive line, outside linebacker and possibly at center if Wells leaves. But let's put it this way: Thompson's strong preference is to find depth and future replacements in the draft, not on other teams' rosters.

Minnesota Vikings

Key free agents: Safety Husain Abdullah, receiver Devin Aromashodu, receiver Greg Camarillo, defensive lineman Fred Evans, defensive lineman Letroy Guion, linebacker E.J. Henderson, linebacker Erin Henderson, safety Tyrell Johnson, quarterback Sage Rosenfels, cornerback Benny Sapp and tight end Visanthe Shiancoe.

Where they stand: The Vikings seem poised for a major roster overhaul in their first offseason since Rick Spielman was promoted to general manager. Players like Shiancoe, E.J. Henderson, Camarillo and Johnson all seem poised to move on. There aren't many positions on the team that appear secure.

What to expect: If the Vikings don't plan to draft USC left tackle Matt Kalil at No. 3 overall next month, the first clue will be if they pursue a free-agent left tackle. That seems unlikely. But they'll need to combine their draft with at least a few veteran free agents if they intend to compete for a playoff spot in 2012. Cornerback could be a point of focus, where Brandon Carr and Cortland Finnegan are among those available. Another could be receiver. The Vikings had major interest in Jackson two years ago.

To help muddle through our first weekend without football in six months, let's take a look at Mel Kiper Jr.'s NFC North-heavy analysis of the top veteran players whose eventual replacement should comprise at least a part of his team's offseason. You'll need an Insider subscription to see the whole file, but I can pass along the three players Kiper listed with connections to us.

Jeff Backus, Detroit Lions left tackle

Seifert comment: We discussed Backus' status a few weeks ago. He will turn 35, just had major surgery to repair a torn biceps muscle and is a pending free agent. The Lions don't have an obvious internal replacement, making it quite possible they will bring back Backus for 2012. Still, it would make sense to at least start the process of acquiring a successor, either through the draft or free agency.

Brian Urlacher, Chicago Bears middle linebacker

Seifert comment: Although he played at a high level throughout 2011, Urlacher will turn 34 in May and plays a high-impact position. As we discussed last week, the Bears have nothing close to an heir apparent on hand. Replenishing the Bears' defensive depth should be one of the top priorities of new general manager Phil Emery.

Charles Woodson, Green Bay Packers cornerback

Comment: Woodson played well enough to earn All-Pro honors for the third consecutive season in 2011, but he will turn 36 in October. We discussed the possibility of moving him to safety last month, if starter Nick Collins (neck) is forced to retire. But even if Woodson remains at cornerback for 2012, the Packers will eventually need reinforcement at the position.

Remember, Kiper -- as would any good general manager -- made his analysis based on the long-term horizon for each player and team. Backus, Urlacher and Woodson seem likely to play substantial roles for their teams next season. But it's better to be ahead of the curve than behind it.

Let's catch up on Todd McShay's latest mock draft , one that shakes up the conventional thinking for a couple NFC North teams and points us squarely toward the offseason now that the NFL's 2011 season is fully complete. You'll need an Insider subscription to see the entire draft, but I can offer you a division-centric glimpse:

3. Minnesota Vikings
McShay pick: Iowa offensive tackle Riley Reiff
Seifert comment: In this scenario, USC tackle Matt Kalil is already off the board. Mocks don't typically account for trades, which I'm guessing the Vikings would pursue if they can't draft Kalil and Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III is still on the board. Otherwise, the Vikings would have to determine if the draft's second-best left tackle is a better option than its top cornerback (LSU's Morris Claiborne) or best receiver (Oklahoma State's Justin Blackmon).

19. Chicago Bears
McShay pick: Baylor receiver Kendall Wright
Seifert comment: McShay thinks Wright is "on the rise" and chose him over Notre Dame's Michael Floyd. Wright will be one of the fastest receivers available in the draft but at 5-foot-10, he wouldn't qualify as a so-called "big" receiver.

23. Detroit Lions
McShay pick: Georgia guard Cordy Glenn
Seifert comment: This pick would fall under the "best available player" category. The Lions seem set with Rob Sims at left guard and Stephen Peterman on the right side, and McShay thinks that Glenn could develop into a right tackle. Regardless, if the Lions have a need at offensive line, it's at left tackle, where starter Jeff Backus is approaching his 35th birthday and is a pending free agent.

28. Green Bay Packers
McShay pick: Oklahoma linebacker Ronnell Lewis
Seifert comment: Mock drafters are going to keep assigning pass rushers to the Packers until they finally take one.

Previewing some of the big decisions facing NFC North teams early in the 2012 offseason:

Earlier this month, Detroit Lions general manager Martin Mayhew suggested he was entering "probably the most challenging offseason so far" of his tenure. His team has salary-cap issues at a time when some important players are approaching free agency, and the Lions also have a conundrum at a key position with no clear answer in view.

Veteran left tackle Jeff Backus had major surgery Jan. 9 after tearing a biceps muscle late in the Lions' season-ending playoff loss at the New Orleans Saints. He is scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent in March, and the Lions don't have an obvious heir apparent to promote.

Backus will turn 35 in September, and the Lions will have to replace him at some point in the next few years. Will the injury, their cap situation and the occasion of his expiring contract accelerate the timetable? Mayhew said he wants Backus to return, but it's only fair to point out that general managers always say that at this time of year.

All indications suggest Backus' arm will be healed by the start of training camp. He hasn't missed a game in 11 NFL seasons, and the one player who might qualify as a potential replacement has appeared in only four games in two NFL seasons. Jason Fox, a fourth-round draft pick in 2010, has impressed the Lions in between injuries but can hardly be relied on as a starter entering training camp in 2012.

So unless they can grab a promising (and healthy) left tackle in the 2012 draft, the Lions might have no choice but to wait out Backus' rehabilitation and re-sign him as training camp approaches. He won't come cheap, having earned about $6.5 million in 2011, but even a cap-strapped team will have a hard time going cheap at the left tackle position.

The good news is that Backus finished the 2011 season well after a partially torn pectoral muscle seemed to limit him early on. Pro Football Focus (PFF) grades each block by NFL offensive linemen and gave Backus its highest grade among left tackles in the NFC North. He allowed seven sacks on the season, but five came in two games during the first half of the season, according to PFF.

The Lions just got franchise quarterback Matthew Stafford through the first 16-game season of his career. Chances are they won't risk a shaky situation with Stafford's backside protector anytime soon.

In discussing a mailbag question Wednesday, we saw no indication that the Detroit Lions were planning any changes to their defensive coaching staff after a late-season slide. Thursday, general manager Martin Mayhew confirmed that defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham had signed a new contract to return in 2012.

The same goes for offensive coordinator Scott Linehan and special teams coordinator Danny Crossman. So there you go: all three will be back.

Cunningham's future wasn't an unreasonable discussion point, but coach Jim Schwartz had never suggested anything but support for his friend and longtime colleague.

Mayhew spoke Thursday to a group of Detroit-area writers, acknowledging that the Lions have some difficult offseason work ahead of them. He said he will approach receiver Calvin Johnson about a contract extension, presumably to lower a projected $22 million cap number, but said a deal this offseason isn't "something that absolutely has to be done." As we discussed Monday, if the Lions don't extend Johnson, he would be eligible for a crushing franchise tag figure of about $26.4 million in 2013.

Mayhew also said he hopes to re-sign defensive end Cliff Avril and left tackle Jeff Backus, both of whom are eligible to become unrestricted free agents. Mayhew wouldn't commit to using the franchise tag on Avril if the sides can't come to an agreement before the free agent market opens in March.

Here are reports from Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press, Chris McCosky of the Detroit News, Anwar S. Richardson of Mlive.com and Tim Twentyman of the Lions website.

We're Black ad Blue All Over:

Lost in other season-ending issues for the Detroit Lions was a significant injury that could impact the team's offseason plans.

Left tackle Jeff Backus suffered a torn biceps muscle late in the Lions' 45-28 loss to the New Orleans Saints, and coach Jim Schwartz confirmed that Backus was set to undergo surgery Monday. Schwartz said Backus will miss "a significant portion of time" as he recovers this offseason.

Backus is an unrestricted free agent, and if the Lions tried to extend his contract during the season, it was never reported publicly. He will turn 35 shortly after the 2012 season starts, and at some point the Lions will have to begin addressing his replacement. Whether this injury will jump-start that process is unclear. He isn't likely to be recovered when free agency opens in March, so some projection will be required.

Continuing around the NFC North:

• Drew Sharp of the Detroit Free Press: "The Lions will be the next 'it' team this offseason, an offspring of the mind-blowing hyperbole that makes the NFL a 12-month talking point. They've got a young quarterback at the cusp of elite status and a monstrous receiver that scientists finally confirmed is actually a cyborg. But they'll quickly learn how expectations abruptly conflict with reality. The Lions are more than just a few roster tweaks from being a serious playoff threat."
• The Lions must re-sign pending free agent Cliff Avril, writes Bob Wojnowski of the Detroit News.
• Lions running back Jahvid Best said he is free of concussion symptoms and is confident he will play in 2012. Philip Zaroo of Mlive.com has more.
• Jason Wilde of ESPNMilwaukee.com shares some information from previous interviews to give a sketch of Green Bay Packers offensive coordinator Joe Philbin, whose son Michael was found dead Monday.
• Mike Vandermause of the Green Bay Press-Gazette: "Instead of the usual excitement at the stadium that accompanies the start of a playoff work week, there was sadness and a feeling of helplessness."
• When they return their gaze to football, the Packers will have to deal with a formidable New York Giants defensive line. Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel has more.
• Minnesota Vikings linebacker Chad Greenway actually had a better season in 2010 than in 2011, but he is headed to the Pro Bowl nonetheless, writes Tom Pelissero of 1500ESPN.com.
• Dan Wiederer of the Star Tribune reviews the Vikings' quarterback situation.
• Jeff Dickerson of ESPNChicago.com grades the Chicago Bears.
• A wide receiver is the Bears' top need, according to Dickerson.
• Tim Ruskell would not necessarily be Jerry Angelo 2.0 as the Bears' general manager, according to Sean Jensen of the Chicago Sun-Times.

» NFC Stock Watch: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

FALLING

1. Secondary play in Chicago and Minnesota: Between the two of them, the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings have maybe one or two defensive backs who should be considered 2012 starters heading into the offseason. Bears cornerback Charles Tillman qualifies, and perhaps Vikings cornerback Antoine Winfield will as well if he returns healthy from a fractured collarbone. Otherwise, the Bears and Vikings need a serious overhaul to their defensive backfields. Both teams tried season-long rotations at safety, neither of which led to any personnel conclusions, and cornerback play outside of Tillman has been atrocious for both teams. It will probably be a multiyear process for these franchises to rebuild these positions. With Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler in this division, they better hurry.

2. Christian Ponder, Minnesota Vikings quarterback: We all remember ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer's harsh criticism of Ponder shortly after the draft. In brief, Dilfer said Ponder looks the part of an NFL quarterback but quickly falls from his comfort zone and loses accuracy under pressure. Dilfer softened some of that analysis after Ponder's relatively strong debut, but we should note that Ponder has been one of the NFL's worst quarterbacks against extra pass-rushers this season. According to ESPN Stats & Information, he is completing about 39 percent of his passes when opponents send five or more pass-rushers. The only player with less success against the blitz? Denver Broncos quarterback/running back Tim Tebow. It's not necessarily a warning sign if a rookie doesn't perform well under pressure, but to this point Ponder's performance hasn't veered much from Dilfer's original analysis.

3. Marion Barber, Bears running back: Barber's mental errors in a loss earlier this month to the Broncos, and his inability to keep his troublesome calf healthy, would seem to spell the end of his short tenure with the Bears. Kahlil Bell's hard-charging 123-yard performance Sunday night offers the Bears a much younger option for the role of backing up starter Matt Forte. It was a nice run, as they say.

RISING

1. Home-field advantage: The Packers have a quirky history when it comes to playing at home in the playoffs. In the big picture, the state of Wisconsin has provided one of the best home-field advantages in professional sports. The Packers are 15-3 all-time at home in the playoffs, including games played in Milwaukee. But those three losses have come in their past five playoff games at home: In 2003 to the Atlanta Falcons, in 2004 to the Vikings and 2007 to the New York Giants. One of the two victories, meanwhile, came in overtime to the Seattle Seahawks. Recently, at least, opponents haven't been intimidated by playing at Lambeau Field.

2. Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit Lions tight end: A significant debate erupted in 2009 when the Lions used the No. 20 overall pick to draft Pettigrew, passing up offensive lineman Michael Oher and receiver Percy Harvin, among others. But the Lions insisted that a multi-faceted tight end was critical to their offense, and they have followed through by utilizing Pettigrew as much as any team in the NFL. The Lions have used him as an extension of their running game, and although he is averaging a modest 8.7 yards per reception, his total of 76 catches ranks third among tight ends. By all accounts, Pettigrew is an excellent blocker as well. The Lions have gotten by this far with Jeff Backus and Gosder Cherilus as their tackles, minimizing the need for Oher. And while Harvin would have been a nice addition, the Lions have found value by signing veteran Nate Burleson and using a second-round pick to draft Titus Young.

3. T.J. Lang, Green Bay Packers offensive lineman: When the season began, how many people would have chosen Lang as the Packers' most valuable offensive lineman? Not me. Lang had been an inconsistent starter and player who couldn't find a position and was behind a rookie on the depth chart when the season began. But Lang outplayed first-round pick Derek Sherrod in camp to win the left guard job and has provided a seamless transition from departed starter Daryn Colledge. And when the Packers needed someone to jump over to right tackle after injuries to Bryan Bulaga and Sherrod, Lang successfully made the move. On Sunday night, at least, he held his own against Bears pass-rushers Julius Peppers and Israel Idonije. Center Scott Wells might be the Packers' best offensive lineman this season, but not many left guards could jump out to right tackle as well as Lang appeared to do Sunday night.

We're Black and Blue All Over:

Thanks to everyone who participated in Thursday's late-night Twitter discussion on the draft ramifications of the Indianapolis Colts' last-second upset of the Houston Texans. From an NFC North perspective, here's what I can tell you: If you're hoping the Minnesota Vikings will parlay the result into the No. 1 overall pick in the 2012 draft, you need to root for another Colts victory.

Based on research from ESPN Stats & Information, the Vikings would lose the tiebreaker with the Colts if they both finish 2-14. The St. Louis Rams would likely have the No. 3 pick in that scenario if they are also 2-14.

Ties are broken in reverse order of strength of schedule (SOS), and the Indianapolis Star has an easy-to-read projection of each team's SOS through 16 games. The Rams currently have a lower SOS than the Vikings, but those figures could swap when you consider the Rams finish the season against the 10-4 Pittsburgh Steelers and the 11-3 San Francisco 49ers. The Vikings' final two games are against the 5-9 Washington Redskins and 7-7 Chicago Bears.

I know it's complicated and more than you're probably willing to think about on the morning of December 23. But in terms of the No. 1 overall pick, the Vikings' best-case scenario is for the Colts to win next weekend against the Jacksonville Jaguars. (Combined with two more losses by the Vikings, of course.) That would leave the Colts 3-13 and the Vikings sweating out the SOS tiebreaker with the potentially 2-14 Rams, which they have a good chance of winning based on Week 16 and 17 matchups.

Continuing around the NFC North:

• Vikings coach Leslie Frazier expressed support for offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave and said he will return in 2012, writes Tom Pelissero of 1500ESPN.com.
• Vikings tailback Adrian Peterson is ready for a full-game workload, writes Dan Wiederer of the Star Tribune.
• Jeremy Fowler of the St. Paul Pioneer Press speaks with Vikings defensive backs coach Joe Woods, whose group has had its struggles this season.
• It appears the Chicago Bears will start Kahlil Bell at tailback Sunday against the Green Bay Packers, according to Vaughn McClure of the Chicago Tribune. Veteran Marion Barber hasn't practiced this week because of a calf injury.
• The Bears tried to sign free agent quarterback Matt Moore in July, according to Dan Pompei of the Chicago Tribune.
• The Bears' offense has been at the root of their four-game losing streak, writes Sean Jensen of the Chicago Sun-Times.
• Bears linebacker Brian Urlacher on the offense, via Michael C. Wright of ESPNChicago.com: "We can’t let it get to us. Our mindset is [to] go back out there and take the ball away for our offense. That's all we can do; just go out there and try and get three-and-outs ourselves or take the ball away. We don't think about it. I mean, we have a hard enough time ourselves. We can't be worried about what happens on offense."
• Detroit Lions veterans Jeff Backus and Dominic Raiola aren't getting too hyped about Saturday's potential playoff-clinching game, writes Michael Rosenberg of the Detroit Free Press.
• The Lions are trusting tight end Brandon Pettigrew despite a series of drops this season, writes John Niyo of the Detroit News.
• Making the playoffs is "really important to us," according to Lions defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham. Philip Zaroo of Mlive.com has more.
• The Green Bay Packers are getting back to basics in their efforts to limit drops, writes Kareem Copeland of the Green Bay Press-Gazette.
• Packers tight end Jermichael Finley has been a social media lightening rod, writes Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
• Jason Wilde of ESPNMilwaukee.com examines the Packers' intentions for the Wildcat offense with receiver Randall Cobb.