NFC North: Kahlil Bell

For the past five weeks or so, many of you submitted questions about potential matches between NFC North teams and a number of restricted free agents (RFA), from Pittsburgh Steelers receiver Mike Wallace to Baltimore Ravens cornerback Ladarius Webb. You've also wondered if someone would make a run at one of our RFAs, be it Detroit Lions linebacker DeAndre Levy, Lions defensive tackle Sammie Hill, or even Chicago Bears running back Kahlil Bell.

The answer in each case was no, no, no, no, no and a big fat no.

As ESPN analyst Andrew Brandt pointed out this week, restricted free agency is a dying classification that appears to have run its course. The NFL's new collective bargaining agreement requires rookies to receive four-year contracts, which eventually will nullify a category that requires an expired contract and three years of accrued experience.

A conspiracy theorist would question what the future of restricted free agency has to do with how it functions in 2012. Are teams in unspoken agreement -- i.e. colluding -- to leave each other's RFAs alone, thus eliminating an entire class of players from movement? I guess everyone can draw their own conclusions on that, but here is what Brandt -- the Green Bay Packers' longtime contract negotiator -- wrote about it:
This is hard to pinpoint, though as a front office executive I was hesitant to present RFA offer sheets, thinking I was negotiating the contract for the incumbent team, as it usually matches. However, as noted above, the Wallace situation finds the Steelers susceptible.

Another factor is an increased emphasis on building through the draft. With a reduced financial obligation compared to the past, especially high in the draft, these picks are more valuable than ever. Combine that with the high financial price of prying away an RFA, and teams are shying away.

Beyond these reasons, however, an overriding concern for players is that teams are spending less on players than in recent years, and RFA inactivity is a symptom of a larger malady.

Friday is the final day for RFAs to sign an offer sheet with another team. Goodbye, restricted free agency. We'll miss you.
We're Black and Blue All Over:

Detroit Lions president Tom Lewand spoke extensively during a Monday radio interview about three members of the 2011 draft class who have experienced legal entanglements related to marijuana in the past three months. Lewand indicated that all three -- running back Mikel Leshoure, defensive tackle Nick Fairley and offensive lineman Johnny Culbreath -- will be given opportunities to repair their standing with the franchise.

Via the Lions' website, Lewand said: "We expressed disappointment last week and I continue to express disappointment that guys put themselves in the position where they have to have an unpleasant interaction with law enforcement. That is something that should be avoided. But as we all know from life's experiences, it happens, people make mistakes, and you want to give guys opportunities to correct those mistakes, learn from them and move forward."

That's only fair, for as Lewand himself noted, the organization gave him a similar opportunity after a 2010 drunken driving arrest. The NFL suspended him 30 days and fined him $100,000 but Lewand retained his post atop the Lions' front office.

"You are held to a high standard," Lewand said. "I know that firsthand and I've learned that lesson myself. That's a lesson we all have to learn and we have to take it to heart when that adversity is there and when we make mistakes we've got to learn from them and grow as human beings."

Continuing around the NFC North:
  • Lions defensive end Cliff Avril pledged to be ready for the season whether or not he participates in the Lions' offseason workouts, according to Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press.
  • Vaughn McClure of the Chicago Tribune wonders if the Chicago Bears will limit Devin Hester to punt returns only, and no kickoffs, in 2012.
  • Bears linebacker Brian Urlacher is scheduled to receive the team's Ed Block Courage Award on Tuesday, notes Jeff Dickerson of ESPNChicago.com.
  • Bears running back Kahlil Bell hasn't signed his restricted free-agent tender but will sign an injury waiver in order to participate in the team's offseason workout program, McClure writes for the Tribune.
  • The Green Bay Packers are lamenting the shortened offseason program, as mandated by the NFL's agreement with the NFL Players Association. Rob Demovsky of the Green Bay Press-Gazette explains.
  • Duane Dudek of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reviews Packers receiver Donald Driver's latest performance on "Dancing With the Stars."
  • Michael Lombardi of NFL.com takes an executive's look at the Minnesota Vikings' myriad roster holes. Lombardi: "With such a large number of concerns, though, it's easy to see why [general manager Rick] Spielman would make the third pick available. The Vikings are not a few players away from competing. Spielman, who was promoted to general manager in January, must recognize this is not a one-year fixer-upper. He has to have a two-year plan to patch up the team's numerous holes. He must take a broad look at the talent pool in the next two years -- both in the draft and in free agency -- and then decide where the answers might come from."
  • The Minneapolis City Council will host a stadium hearing on April 24 that opponents appear to be gearing up for, according to Eric Roper of the Star Tribune.

NFC North Quick Hits: Monday

March, 12, 2012
Mar 12
6:06
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I have no idea if this is our last post of the day or if we'll have five more before we call it a night. That's how crazy the NFL news cycle is at the moment. But we've had a collection of newsbits hit the wire in the past few hours, so let's bring them all together while we have a moment — in quick-hitting fashion, of course.

Item: The NFL has taken $36 million in salary cap space from the Washington Redskins and $10 million from the Dallas Cowboys for two-year-old contract violations.
Comment: Each NFC North team will receive $1.6 million in additional cap space as a result. Yee-haw!

Item: The Detroit Lions released tight end Will Heller.
Comment: Heller was due a roster bonus of $200,000 and would have received a base salary of just under $1 million in 2012. As cold as it sounds, you don't need to pay your third tight end that kind of money.

Item: The Chicago Bears issued a low tender of $1.26 million to running back Kahlil Bell, a restricted free agent.
Comment: The Bears have the right to match any contract offer Bell might receive, but they would get no compensation if he departs. At this moment, he appears in line to be Matt Forte's primary backup in 2012. Marion Barber isn't expected back.

Item: The Vikings aren't expected to tender linebacker/special teams ace Kenny Onatolu, according to Jeremy Fowler of the St. Paul Pioneer Press.
Comment: The fate of the Vikings' other restricted free agent, running back Lorenzo Booker, has yet to be learned.

Item: The Green Bay Packers are entering into their final hours of exclusive negotiating with center Scott Wells, a pending free agent.
Comment: The Packers have a history of last-minute agreements, but Wells might feel compelled to test his market value before being satisfied with what the Packers have offered.

Item: I can't count how many people have asked for updates on the status of Packers left tackle Chad Clifton and receiver Donald Driver.
Comment: If either player has restructured his contract and/or been informed of his release, it hasn't been made public. That's all I can tell you at this moment.

Mailbag: A note on RFA tenders

March, 12, 2012
Mar 12
9:45
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With NFL free agency set to begin Tuesday, David of Colorado Springs brings up a fair point: "Why haven't we heard much about RFA tenders this year?"

David specifically wants to know how it relates to the Detroit Lions, who need to shave more than $11 million in cap space before Tuesday at 4 p.m. ET, but it's worth taking a broader look at what is almost always a drama-less segment of free agency.

RFAs -- "Restricted Free Agents" -- are players who have accrued three years' experience in the NFL. They are eligible for a new contract, but teams can restrict their access by requiring draft-pick compensation for them to move on and receiving the right to match any deal a player receives. Rare is the case when a third-year player is valuable enough to merit a lucrative contract and a draft pick, and a result, RFAs usually don't change teams.

So the only news when it comes to RFAs is typically whether they were issued a tender or not. The level of the tender is mostly an issue of the salary cap.

In 2012, according to NFL.com, there are three levels of RFA tenders. A player who requires a first-round compensation will get a tender (and cap number) worth $2.742 million, according to NFL.com. Second-round tenders are worth $1.927 million in cap and cash, and tenders that include right to match only are worth $1.26 million.

The Lions have two significant RFAs: Linebacker DeAndre Levy and defensive tackle Sammie Hill. You would think both would get at least a second-round tender. Would another team give up a second-round pick to acquire either player? Probably not, and every cap dollar will matter this year to the Lions. But they could ensure both players' return beyond a doubt by giving them first-round tenders at a combined additional cost of $1.63 million.

The NFL typically announces tender levels on the day free agency begins, and we'll pass along what we find out before then. Other key RFAs in the NFC North include Chicago Bears running back Kahlil Bell, Minnesota Vikings running back Lorenzo Booker and Vikings linebacker/special-teams ace Kenny Onatolu.

NFC North links: Few options at tight end

March, 1, 2012
Mar 1
9:08
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Chicago Bears

Running back Kahlil Bell spent time Wednesday at UCLA working out with Broncos quarterback Tim Tebow.

Dan Pompei of the Chicago Tribune says the Bears are in the market for a tight end, but the options in this year's draft are minimal.

Detroit Lions

Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press says the risk outweighs the reward when it comes to defensive back Janoris Jenkins.

Barry Sanders is looking forward to the idea of seeing Jahvid Best and Mikel Leshoure on the field together in 2012.

Green Bay Packers

Coach Mike McCarthy says he's still trying to figure out how his team lost to the Giants in the playoffs.

Quarterback Aaron Rodgers made an appearance and shagged some balls in the outfield at a Milwaukee Brewers spring training practice Wednesday.

Minnesota Vikings

Details of a tentative stadium agreement are expected to be revealed at a news conference Thursday morning.

With USC left tackle Matt Kalil on the Vikings' radar in next month's draft, the Pioneer Press' Bob Sansevere lists the top left tackles in team history.

NFC North Stock Watch

December, 27, 2011
12/27/11
1:00
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» NFC Stock Watch: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

FALLING

1. Secondary play in Chicago and Minnesota: Between the two of them, the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings have maybe one or two defensive backs who should be considered 2012 starters heading into the offseason. Bears cornerback Charles Tillman qualifies, and perhaps Vikings cornerback Antoine Winfield will as well if he returns healthy from a fractured collarbone. Otherwise, the Bears and Vikings need a serious overhaul to their defensive backfields. Both teams tried season-long rotations at safety, neither of which led to any personnel conclusions, and cornerback play outside of Tillman has been atrocious for both teams. It will probably be a multiyear process for these franchises to rebuild these positions. With Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler in this division, they better hurry.

2. Christian Ponder, Minnesota Vikings quarterback: We all remember ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer's harsh criticism of Ponder shortly after the draft. In brief, Dilfer said Ponder looks the part of an NFL quarterback but quickly falls from his comfort zone and loses accuracy under pressure. Dilfer softened some of that analysis after Ponder's relatively strong debut, but we should note that Ponder has been one of the NFL's worst quarterbacks against extra pass-rushers this season. According to ESPN Stats & Information, he is completing about 39 percent of his passes when opponents send five or more pass-rushers. The only player with less success against the blitz? Denver Broncos quarterback/running back Tim Tebow. It's not necessarily a warning sign if a rookie doesn't perform well under pressure, but to this point Ponder's performance hasn't veered much from Dilfer's original analysis.

3. Marion Barber, Bears running back: Barber's mental errors in a loss earlier this month to the Broncos, and his inability to keep his troublesome calf healthy, would seem to spell the end of his short tenure with the Bears. Kahlil Bell's hard-charging 123-yard performance Sunday night offers the Bears a much younger option for the role of backing up starter Matt Forte. It was a nice run, as they say.

[+] Enlarge
Brandon Pettigrew
Scott Boehm/Getty ImagesBrandon Pettigrew has been a productive weapon for the Lions this season.
RISING

1. Home-field advantage: The Packers have a quirky history when it comes to playing at home in the playoffs. In the big picture, the state of Wisconsin has provided one of the best home-field advantages in professional sports. The Packers are 15-3 all-time at home in the playoffs, including games played in Milwaukee. But those three losses have come in their past five playoff games at home: In 2003 to the Atlanta Falcons, in 2004 to the Vikings and 2007 to the New York Giants. One of the two victories, meanwhile, came in overtime to the Seattle Seahawks. Recently, at least, opponents haven't been intimidated by playing at Lambeau Field.

2. Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit Lions tight end: A significant debate erupted in 2009 when the Lions used the No. 20 overall pick to draft Pettigrew, passing up offensive lineman Michael Oher and receiver Percy Harvin, among others. But the Lions insisted that a multi-faceted tight end was critical to their offense, and they have followed through by utilizing Pettigrew as much as any team in the NFL. The Lions have used him as an extension of their running game, and although he is averaging a modest 8.7 yards per reception, his total of 76 catches ranks third among tight ends. By all accounts, Pettigrew is an excellent blocker as well. The Lions have gotten by this far with Jeff Backus and Gosder Cherilus as their tackles, minimizing the need for Oher. And while Harvin would have been a nice addition, the Lions have found value by signing veteran Nate Burleson and using a second-round pick to draft Titus Young.

3. T.J. Lang, Green Bay Packers offensive lineman: When the season began, how many people would have chosen Lang as the Packers' most valuable offensive lineman? Not me. Lang had been an inconsistent starter and player who couldn't find a position and was behind a rookie on the depth chart when the season began. But Lang outplayed first-round pick Derek Sherrod in camp to win the left guard job and has provided a seamless transition from departed starter Daryn Colledge. And when the Packers needed someone to jump over to right tackle after injuries to Bryan Bulaga and Sherrod, Lang successfully made the move. On Sunday night, at least, he held his own against Bears pass-rushers Julius Peppers and Israel Idonije. Center Scott Wells might be the Packers' best offensive lineman this season, but not many left guards could jump out to right tackle as well as Lang appeared to do Sunday night.

Free Head Exam: Chicago Bears

December, 26, 2011
12/26/11
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After the Chicago Bears' 35-21 loss against the Green Bay Packers, here are three issues that merit further examination:
    Head ExamKevin SeifertThe Chicago Bears take their turn in the examination room after losing to Green Bay.
  1. The Bears usually do a decent job of limiting quarterback Aaron Rodgers' big plays against them, but he threw a career-high five touchdown passes and had three completions go for longer than 30 yards. I can't blame any one portion of the Bears' defense for that. It was a total team defeat. Their front line got almost no pass rush, accounting for one sack (of backup quarterback Matt Flynn) and a total of two quarterback hits. Safety Craig Steltz can hit but has a hard time in coverage, which is one more thing than fellow safety Major Wright has demonstrated. The decision to give cornerback Zack Bowman a new chance in place of Tim Jennings yielded no better results, and middle linebacker Brian Urlacher was conspicuously quiet with three tackles. When the offseason begins, the Bears will look at their defense and see four locked in starters -- Urlacher, cornerback Charles Tillman, linebacker Lance Briggs and defensive end Julius Peppers. Otherwise, all positions should be in play, don't you think? And don't forget that Briggs asked for a trade last summer because the Bears haven't upgraded his contact.
  2. I'm not sure what to make of quarterback Josh McCown's better-than-expected performance. He looked and played like someone who received an early Christmas present and had nothing to lose. The plan was obvious: Use running backs Kahlil Bell and Armando Allen as often as possible and limit the pressure situations McCown encountered. I noticed a few NFL players mocked McCown for dunking the ball over the goal post after a two-point conversion in the fourth quarter pulled the Bears within 17 points, but to me it just reflected probably the only Bears player who had fun Sunday night. I don't know that McCown extended his career Sunday night, but he gave the Bears a credible performance when expectations couldn't have been any lower.
  3. Bell ran hard and made the best of his opportunity Sunday night, gaining 121 yards on the ground and another 38 on four receptions. I would expect more of the same Sunday against the Minnesota Vikings, who released him in training camp in 2009. The Bears obviously have a limited opinion of Bell's worth, having buried him on their bench for most of the past three seasons. But in 12 career games in which he's gotten at least one carry, Bell has 503 yards. That's some significant production, something the Bears might want to consider when they are mapping out playing time for 2012.
And here is one issue I still don't get:
The Bears have missed the playoffs for the fourth time in five seasons. How much turnover will that cause? Early indications, at least, suggest there won't be a major shakeup among the front office or coaching staff. The biggest question mark is whether the Bears will renew the contract of offensive coordinator Mike Martz. I'm against the idea of starting over with a new coordinator and scheme, but the offense's collapse over this five-game losing streak might have sealed Martz's fate.

BBAO: Optimism on Vikings stadium

December, 26, 2011
12/26/11
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We're Black and Blue All Over:

GREEN BAY, Wis. -- Just before Sunday night's game between the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears, Sports Illustrated's Peter King reported on "Football Night in America" that he is convinced the Minnesota Vikings will build a new stadium in the Twin Cities and aren't a candidate to move to Los Angeles. King reiterated the report in his Monday Morning Quarterback column on si.com.

Obviously the Minnesota state legislature hasn't convened yet for 2012, so there can not be a firm on-the-record agreement yet. But I think King's report accurately depicts a growing sense of optimism that Gov. Mark Dayton's leadership on the issue will bring it to a successful conclusion in the coming months.

The Vikings will technically be franchise free agents on Feb. 1, 2012. But as long as Dayton continues to support negotiations on site, financing and design details, it appears highly unlikely the Vikings would utilize the relocation threat. What a late Christmas present that would be for all involved.

Continuing around the NFC North:

Rapid Reaction: Packers 35, Bears 21

December, 25, 2011
12/25/11
11:24
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GREEN BAY, Wis. -- Some thoughts on a rare blowout between NFC North rivals:

What it means: The Green Bay Packers improved to 14-1, setting a franchise record for victories in a season and clinching home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. They'll have a decision to make on how to approach Week 17, which will carry no playoff implications for them. Coach Mike McCarthy has previously indicated he wouldn't veer from his regular lineup in that situation, but we'll see. The injury-devastated Chicago Bears lost their fifth consecutive game and were officially eliminated from playoff contention.

RivalryWatch: The Packers have now swept the Bears in the teams' season series in two of the past three years. Overall, the Packers have won five of the past six games between the two teams. It was the biggest margin of defeat for either team in the series since their second meeting in 2007, a 35-7 Bears victory.

RodgersWatch: Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers had the first five-touchdown game of his career, throwing two apiece to receivers Jordy Nelson and James Jones and another to tight end Jermichael Finley. Rodgers completed his first eight passes and finished 21 of 29 for 283 yards. Along the way, he broke Lynn Dickey's franchise record for passing yards in a season and now has 4,739. He also extended his team record for touchdown passes in a season; he's now at 45. Finally, Rodgers set a new NFL record by recording a 13th game with a passer rating of at least 100.0 in a single season. Sunday's rating was a cool 142.7.

McCownWatch: Bears quarterback Josh McCown performed much more credibly than I'm sure most people expected. I suppose some of you might be turned off by his dunk over the crossbar after taking in a 2-point conversion in the fourth quarter. I thought it was fun. This is a guy that hadn't started a game since 2007 and began the fall coaching high school football. McCown never imagined he would be starting a game again on national television. Give him a break. The Bears smartly limited his opportunities with a steady diet of running plays in the first half and into the third quarter. Bears running back Kahlil Bell ran hard and had 121 yards on 23 carries, and overall the Bears rushed for 199 yards. But that sort of offense can't keep up with the opponents go on a scoring spree. That began midway through the third quarter, a 21-0 run that quashed the Bears' game plan.

Injury report: Packers running back James Starks again left with an ankle injury that looks like it's going to be a factor for a while. This has been going on for more than a month. The Bears lost right tackle Lance Louis to a illness in the first half and he returned only as part of a goal-line set thereafter. Frank Omiyale replaced him at right tackle.

What's next: The Packers will host the Detroit Lions next Sunday in a game that will have relevance only for the Lions, whose postseason seeding -- No. 5 or No. 6 -- has yet to be determined. The Bears will close out this disappointing season with a game at the Minnesota Vikings.

Halftime: Packers 14, Bears 3

December, 25, 2011
12/25/11
9:57
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GREEN BAY, Wis. -- A few thoughts from a pretty quick first half at Lambeau Field:

  • The Chicago Bears are doing what most teams would like to do against the Green Bay Packers: Control the ball via the running game and keep the Packers offense off the field. The Bears have rushed for 126 yards, including 89 by Kahlil Bell, and have 207 total yards. But they haven't followed through on the second part of that approach. They have only one field goal to show for their efforts because Robbie Gould missed a 49-yarder and Packers linebacker Clay Matthews stopped another drive with an interception.
  • I don't think anyone could argue with the performance of Bears quarterback Josh McCown, who has completed 6 of 9 passes. The Bears have run 24 times and are obviously going to limit McCown's exposure, but I wouldn't even blame him for the interception. Matthews sniffed out a screen and made a great individual play.
  • Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers broke the Packers' single-season record for passing yards in a season during the second quarter. Lynn Dickey held the record previously at 4,458 yards. Rodgers appeared to injure his right hand in a collision with Bears defensive end Julius Peppers, but he has completed 14 of 19 passes for 148 yards and two touchdowns.
  • Did the Lambeau Field crowd boo tight end Jermichael Finley when he was unable to come up with a short catch on the right sideline? Or were they booing the officials' call? I wasn't sure. Finley caught three passes in the Packers' opening drive, including a 2-yard touchdown, but he has also missed on a couple of catchable passes as well.
  • I'm not sure why the Bears are using Devin Hester as a returner. His sprained ankle is obviously limiting him and on a few plays he seemed unable to run laterally. That's a recipe for further injury.
  • Although the Packers have both starting inside linebackers back on the field, it's worth noting the Packers' run defense is not at full strength. Ryan Pickett still has not been cleared to play after suffering a concussion two weeks ago.
GREEN BAY, Wis. -- The Chicago Bears are doing what you would expect from a team playing an emergency starting quarterback Sunday night at Lambeau Field.

The Bears ran on their first six plays, and quarterback Josh McCown threw four passes in the first quarter. Overall, Bears tailback Kahlil Bell has rushed 11 times for 59 yards.

The Bears have managed to limit the Green Bay Packers' opportunities on offense as a result, but Robbie Gould's miss on a 49-yard field goal has left them trailing 7-0 early in the second quarter.

OK, back to our chat.

Devin Hester active for Bears

December, 25, 2011
12/25/11
7:10
PM ET
GREEN BAY, Wis. -- The Chicago Bears will play their top rivals Sunday night without their top two running backs and appear to be bracing for limited duty from receiver/kick returner Devin Hester.

Hester is active but the Bears also have receiver Max Komar in uniform for the first time all season.

Matt Forte (knee) and Marion Barber (calf) are inactive, as expected. Kahlil Bell is expected to get his second NFL start.

The Bears also deactivated rookie quarterback Nathan Enderle, meaning that deposed starter Caleb Hanie is the only quarterback available to play in relief of new starter Josh McCown.

The Green Bay Packers will have linebacker Desmond Bishop (calf) in uniform for the first time since Thanksgiving Day. Meanwhile, defensive end Mike Neal (shoulder) is in uniform, but the Packers announced that Howard Green will start for Ryan Pickett at left defensive end and that C.J. Wilson will start at right defensive end.

The team also confirmed that T.J. Lang will start at right tackle and Evan Dietrich-Smith will start at left guard.

Final Word: NFC North

December, 23, 2011
12/23/11
1:30
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» NFC Final Word: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Five nuggets of knowledge on Week 16:

Busted rivalry: When the NFL released its schedule this spring, many of us had high expectations for a late-December matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears. Instead, an injury-devastated Bears team will limp north as a (deserved) 13-point underdog. It's possible the Packers will have clinched home-field advantage even before taking the field Sunday night, if the San Francisco 49ers lose Saturday at the Seattle Seahawks. If not, the Packers will attempt to secure it against a team playing without quarterback Jay Cutler, running backs Matt Forte and Marion Barber, and receiver Johnny Knox. Third-string running back Kahlil Bell is expected to start, pairing with third-string quarterback Josh McCown -- who has a history of helping the Packers' playoff positioning. (See: Noooooooooooooooo!) One other interesting bit of history: The Packers are one of five teams in NFL history to open a season 13-0 and then lose in their 14th game. All four of the other teams lost their 15th game, too. That list includes the 2009 and 2005 Indianapolis Colts, the 2009 New Orleans Saints and the 1998 Denver Broncos.

[+] Enlarge
James Starks
Jeremy Brevard/US PresswireGreen Bay's James Starks is expected to play Sunday against the Bears.
Packers' run game: For several reasons, Sunday night's game would be an obvious target for the Packers to try to enhance their running game. James Starks (ankle) and Brandon Saine (concussion) are expected to return. The Packers will start a makeshift offensive line that likely will include T.J. Lang at right tackle and Evan Dietrich-Smith at left guard; the best way for offensive linemen to get comfortable is via run blocking. And it's also worth repeating that the Bears historically have done a good job limiting Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers' downfield opportunities. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Rodgers has completed only five of 26 attempts on throws against the Bears that traveled in the air 21 yards or more. He's thrown for one touchdown, a game-winner to receiver Greg Jennings in 2009, and two interceptions on those passes.

Detroit's challenge: The Detroit Lions will clinch a playoff spot Saturday if they beat the San Diego Chargers in what will likely be a raucous atmosphere at Ford Field. (There are also several scenarios to clinch this weekend even if they lose. They're noted in this post.) Hopefully everyone knows the Chargers are on one of their annual December rolls. They've won three consecutive games after a six-game losing streak. Since Norv Turner took the head coaching job in 2007, the Chargers are 20-2 in December. This will be no cakewalk.

Big targets: Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers struggled earlier this season, but he has been the NFL's most efficient quarterback over the past three weeks based on Total Quarterback Rating. Rivers has hit a groove with a pair of 6-foot-5 receivers that will pose significant matchup problems for the Lions. Malcom Floyd has 11 receptions for 233 yards and two touchdowns over the past two games, while Vincent Jackson has caught 12 passes for 211 yards and a touchdown. Jackson has been sidelined in practice this week by a groin injury. Lions cornerback Chris Houston (knee) clearly wasn't 100 percent last week against the Oakland Raiders, and the team re-signed Brandon McDonald this week for extra depth. Safety Louis Delmas (knee) also remains sidelined, and backup Chris Harris was cleared Thursday to practice following a concussion.

Make it stop: If you're a big-picture observer, you see ample motivation for the Minnesota Vikings to lose Sunday at the Washington Redskins. One more victory by the Indianapolis Colts, in conjunction with two more Vikings defeats, would give the Vikings an excellent chance to secure the No. 1 overall pick of the 2012 draft. A loss to the Redskins would extend the Vikings' losing streak to seven games, tying a franchise record set in their expansion season of 1961. But I'm not sure what would be worse: tying that record or extending their NFL record of games without an interception, which stands at nine. Redskins quarterback Rex Grossman has thrown at least one interception in his past 10 starts, and he is tied for the second-most interceptions in the NFL (18) despite missing three games this season. Something's got to give.
We're Black and Blue All Over:

Thanks to everyone who participated in Thursday's late-night Twitter discussion on the draft ramifications of the Indianapolis Colts' last-second upset of the Houston Texans. From an NFC North perspective, here's what I can tell you: If you're hoping the Minnesota Vikings will parlay the result into the No. 1 overall pick in the 2012 draft, you need to root for another Colts victory.

Based on research from ESPN Stats & Information, the Vikings would lose the tiebreaker with the Colts if they both finish 2-14. The St. Louis Rams would likely have the No. 3 pick in that scenario if they are also 2-14.

Ties are broken in reverse order of strength of schedule (SOS), and the Indianapolis Star has an easy-to-read projection of each team's SOS through 16 games. The Rams currently have a lower SOS than the Vikings, but those figures could swap when you consider the Rams finish the season against the 10-4 Pittsburgh Steelers and the 11-3 San Francisco 49ers. The Vikings' final two games are against the 5-9 Washington Redskins and 7-7 Chicago Bears.

I know it's complicated and more than you're probably willing to think about on the morning of December 23. But in terms of the No. 1 overall pick, the Vikings' best-case scenario is for the Colts to win next weekend against the Jacksonville Jaguars. (Combined with two more losses by the Vikings, of course.) That would leave the Colts 3-13 and the Vikings sweating out the SOS tiebreaker with the potentially 2-14 Rams, which they have a good chance of winning based on Week 16 and 17 matchups.

Continuing around the NFC North:

Free Head Exam: Chicago Bears

December, 5, 2011
12/05/11
3:15
PM ET
After Chicago Bears' 10-3 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, here are three issues that merit further examination:
  1. Head ExamKevin SeifertFollowing their loss to the Chiefs, the Bears take a seat in the examination room.
    The Bears' playoff hopes are on life support after the loss of quarterback Jay Cutler and running back Matt Forte, who has a Grade 2 sprain of the MCL in his right knee and could miss at least two weeks. But let's be clear: They would flat-line if they even consider whether retired quarterback Brett Favre, 42, could help them. Michael C. Wright of ESPNChicago.com reported that Favre would listen if the Bears called him, but Favre was clearly and obviously done last season while playing in an offense he has learned over two decades. Assuming there is someone in the Bears' front office with 20-20 eyesight, the Bears won't consider the move -- no matter how much fun it would be here on the NFC North blog. Bears coach Lovie Smith said Monday that "we're not looking on the outside for help" and I'm going to take his word for it.
  2. With that said, the Bears must find a way to get current starter Caleb Hanie straightened out in time for Sunday's game at the Denver Broncos. Hanie has six interceptions in two starts. I don't think anyone is blaming him for the entirety of the past two losses. But here are the facts: He is completing 45 percent of his passes, has thrown six interceptions in 60 attempts and has taken 11 sacks. That's a performance you expect from a player you've thrown onto the field in an emergency situation, not someone you've been developing on your roster for the past four years.
  3. Perhaps the best illustration of Forte's value was the Bears' production with him on the sideline. Their 181 yards and 11 first downs, not to mention their three points, was by far their lowest output of the season. Backup Marion Barber can still be an effective interior runner at times and is a good receiver, but if they didn't know before, the Bears will find out over the next week how perfectly Forte fits their offense. The Bears are hoping that little-used Kahlil Bell can help Barber replace Forte, but it's fair to carry a healthy skepticism on those prospects.
And here is one issue I still don't get:
As poorly as things have gone the past two weeks, it's amazing to realize the Bears really haven't lost any ground in the NFC playoff race. Their 7-5 record matches the Atlanta Falcons and Detroit Lions, and it's one better than the New York Giants. Two teams are going to clinch wild-card berths, and the expectations for qualification are lowering with the week. I'm not sure which way to look at it from a Bears perspective: That they have missed an opportunity to all but lock up a playoff berth, or that they can still control their destiny despite the chaos of the past two weeks.
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