NFC North: Knowshon Moreno
Each Thursday leading up to the NFL draft (April 28-30), the ESPN.com NFL blog network will take a division-by-division look at key aspects of the draft. Today's topic: history in that spot.
Chicago Bears
The Bears' top pick is No. 29 overall. Here are the past seven players taken in that spot, with their NFL team in parentheses:
2010: Cornerback Kyle Wilson (New York Jets)
2009: Wide receiver Hakeem Nicks (New York Giants)
2008: Defensive end Kentwan Balmer (San Francisco 49ers)
2007: Offensive guard Ben Grubbs (Baltimore Ravens)
2006: Center Nick Mangold (New York Jets)
2005: Defensive back Marlin Jackson (Indianapolis Colts)
2004: Wide receiver Michael Jenkins (Atlanta Falcons)
ANALYSIS: The bottom of the first round is a great place to find starting-caliber guards and centers. The top tackles are usually off the board. Fortunately for the Bears, they could use a guard or center just as much as a tackle. While coach Lovie Smith wants to bring back veteran center Olin Kreutz, a free agent, he will have to be replaced someday. And more depth at guard could allow the Bears to move 2008 first-round draft pick Chris Williams back to left tackle.
Detroit Lions
The Lions' top pick is No. 13 overall. Here are the past seven players taken in that spot, with their NFL team in parentheses:
2010: Defensive end Brandon Graham (Philadelphia Eagles)
2009: Defensive end Brian Orakpo (Washington Redskins)
2008: Running back Jonathan Stewart (Carolina Panthers)
2007: Defensive lineman Adam Carriker (St. Louis Rams)
2006: Linebacker Kamerion Wimbley (Cleveland Browns)
2005: Offensive lineman Jammal Brown (New Orleans Saints)
2004: Receiver Lee Evans (Buffalo Bills)
ANALYSIS: Unfortunately for the Lions, this isn't a great spot to get an elite cornerback. Those types of players are usually drafted in the top seven or eight picks. (The Lions are hoping that Nebraska's Prince Amukamara somehow slips through the cracks.) This is a nice area to draft a second-tier defensive lineman, and this year, the Lions will probably have their pick of offensive tackles as well.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers' top pick is No. 32 overall. Here are the past seven players taken in that spot, with their NFL team in parentheses:
2010: Cornerback Patrick Robinson (New Orleans Saints)
2009: Defensive tackle Ziggy Hood (Pittsburgh Steelers)
2008: Defensive end Phillip Merling (Miami Dolphins)*
2007: Receiver Anthony Gonzalez (Indianapolis Colts)
2006: Defensive end Mathias Kiwanuka (New York Giants)
2005: Offensive guard Logan Mankins (New England Patriots)
2004: Tight end Benjamin Watson (New England Patriots)
*First pick of second round.
ANALYSIS: There are some awfully productive players on this list. Part of the reason is that the previous year's most successful organization was in that spot and thus was more likely to make a good scouting decision. But it also tells us the Packers should have an opportunity to select a player who can make an immediate impact as long as they don't limit themselves to certain positions.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings' top pick is No. 12 overall. Here are the past seven players taken in that spot, with their NFL team in parentheses:
2010: Running back Ryan Mathews (San Diego Chargers)
2009: Running back Knowshon Moreno (Denver Broncos)
2008: Offensive tackle Ryan Clady (Denver Broncos)
2007: Running back Marshawn Lynch (Buffalo Bills)
2006: Defensive lineman Haloti Ngata (Baltimore Ravens)
2005: Linebacker Shawne Merriman (San Diego Chargers)
2004: Linebacker Jonathan Vilma (New York Jets)
ANALYSIS: This list tells us what we knew already: You can get a blue-chip, impact player here if you exercise good judgment. The Vikings' decision, of course, will be complicated by their need for a quarterback. What will they do if they have, say, a potentially elite pass-rusher like North Carolina's Robert Quinn available to them? Take Quinn and look for a quarterback later? Or prioritize the quarterback?
Black and Blue all over: Raji progress?
BOURBONNAIS, Ill. -- I'll be headed out to Chicago's practice here in a few hours on what is predicted to be a 92-degree day in the greater Bourbonnais-Kankakee area. That's football (practice) weather if I've ever heard of it.
Three-fourths of the NFC North was off Sunday, but one news item caught my eye Monday morning: Green Bay hasn't made any progress on Michael Vick, but it has moved a bit closer in contract negotiations with first-round draft choice B.J. Raji, according to Pete Dougherty of the Green Bay Press-Gazette. A deal might not be imminent, but Denver's agreement with No. 12 overall pick Knowshon Moreno seems to have had a positive effect on the Raji talks.
The Packers are back on the field at 3 p.m. ET Monday. You would think Raji's deal will be done at some time this week, but we're now entering the territory where his availability for the first preseason game will be in question. The Packers will host Cleveland on Saturday night.
Continuing around the NFC North:
- Detroit practiced in brutal heat Sunday, writes Carlos Monarrez of the Detroit Free Press. It was 93 degrees when practice started and the heat index was 106.
- Lions tight end Brandon Pettigrew (thigh) returned to practice after missing a week, notes Monarrez. Safety Daniel Bullocks, meanwhile, traveled to Birmingham, Ala., to have his troublesome knee checked out by Dr. James Andrews.
- Minnesota receiver Bobby Wade clarified his comments regarding Minnesota's quarterback competition, writes Judd Zulgad of the Star Tribune. Wade seemed to indicate over the weekend that Tarvaris Jackson will win the job, but Sunday he said, "I have no clue" whether Jackson or Sage Rosenfels will be the starter. Sounds like someone got to someone.
- Minnesota center John Sullivan indicates that he's a few inches shorter than what the Vikings have him listed at in this interview with Bob Sansevere of the St. Paul Pioneer Press.
- Bob LeGere of the Daily Herald writes he is "more than a little concerned" about the long-term future of Bears defensive tackle Tommie Harris.
- The Bears are trying to shape Danieal Manning in the mold of versatile defensive backs Aeneas Williams and Ronde Barber, writes Vaughn McClure of the Chicago Tribune.
Black and Blue all over: TKO for Stafford?
At least one member of the Detroit media has called Detroit's quarterback competition in favor of rookie Matthew Stafford. Here's what Tom Kowalski of Mlive.com posted late Saturday:
"Stafford isn't perfect, and he's going to make plenty of mistakes as he develops, but the first overall pick in the draft is showing he's the real deal. The Lions aren't saying anything publicly because they have nothing to gain by making an announcement in the next week or two. But trust me, when the scouts and coaches watch the practice tape every night, they're grinning from ear to ear."
Kowalski writes that his opinion is not so much based on a negative evaluation of Daunte Culpepper as it is the confidence and poise of the 21-year-old Stafford.
It's probably a little early for the Lions to make any final decisions. Preseason games are better indicators of how players react in pressure situations. But if nothing else, Stafford is giving the Lions plenty to think about.
Continuing around the NFC North:
- NFL commissioner Roger Goodell reiterated Saturday in Detroit that he would not change the league's blackout policy to help the Lions get on local television, writes Nicholas J. Cotsonika of the Detroit Free Press.
- ESPN's Chris Mortensen notes the Lions have turned over about 50 percent of the roster since last season.
- Mike Mulligan of the Chicago Sun-Times notes another benefit to trading for quarterback Jay Cutler: The Bears didn't have to worry about using a high draft pick on a quarterback and then wonder if he wouldn't sign his contract until late in training camp.
- Bears receiver Devin Hester wants to make the Pro Bowl as a receiver as well as a punt returner, writes Melissa Isaacson of ESPN Chicago.
- Does Minnesota receiver Bobby Wade know something we don't? Check out this quote, as reported by Judd Zulgad of the Star Tribune: "Obviously, [Tarvaris Jackson] missed a couple of days so that always plays a toll. ... You know the timing's really important for every single one of our receivers, the timing with Tarvaris, and Sage [Rosenfels] for that matter but especially Tarvaris knowing he'll be pretty much the named starter going into the season so timing is everything in this offense."
- Rookie cornerback Asher Allen is reminding some Vikings of a young Antoine Winfield, including Winfield. Sean Jensen of the St. Paul Pioneer Press explains.
- Even after Denver signed tailback Knowshon Moreno, the No. 12 overall pick of the draft, there is still a gap between Green Bay and first-round pick B.J. Raji. Rob Demovsky of the Green Bay Press-Gazette breaks down the situation.
- Speaking to Lori Nickel of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Green Bay center Scott Wells details the torn labrum he suffered last season and his arduous rehabilitation during the offseason.
Pettigrew was the Lions' top available player
ALLEN PARK, Mich. -- Brandon Pettigrew is my Knowshon Moreno.
Huh?
Let me explain. During our ESPN.com blogger mock draft this week, I gave Detroit running back Knowshon Moreno with the No. 20 overall pick. In doing so, I cited a quote from Lions coach Jim Schwartz, who said the team would not allow "need to trump talent" in this draft. In other words, the talent-poor Lions weren't in position to focus on a particular position at any point in this weekend's draft.
A few of you, uh, disagreed with that thinking and pointed out the needs of the Lions' horrendous defense. But given the choice between Pettigrew -- a tight end from Oklahoma State -- and USC linebacker Rey Maualuga, the Lions jumped on Pettigrew. (They also passed on Mississippi offensive tackle Michael Oher.)
The Lions probably have more of a need at tight end than at running back. But you can't make an argument they need more help at tight end than at linebacker. But I'm telling you, this is the way Detroit is going to conduct itself this weekend and moving forward. They're going to take the top player on their board, regardless of position, at every spot in the draft.
How you evaluate Pettigrew is an entirely separate issue. Is he as good as the Lions think he is? We'll know soon enough. But the point is that Detroit ranked him highly on its board, and the presence of a potential starting middle linebacker and a new left tackle wasn't enough to deviate from that approach.
Explaining my Blog Network selections
We here at the ESPN Blog Network decided to have some fun and conduct our own mock draft. Its intrinsic value rates somewhere below the efforts of actual experts Mel Kiper and Todd McShay, but it was fun nonetheless.
I'll expand my explanations for the NFC North picks below, including one highly controversial choice for which I'm certain to absorb an unmerciful flogging. Onward...
No. 1 overall
Detroit Lions: Quarterback Matthew Stafford
Why: I think it's pretty clear the Lions have targeted Stafford over Wake Forest linebacker Aaron Curry. Otherwise, Curry probably would be signed by now. Baylor offensive tackle Jason Smith is also a candidate, but in the end it seems the Lions want to open their new era with a blue-chip building block at the game's most important position.
No. 9 overall
Green Bay Packers: Andre Smith
Why: AFC South colleague Paul Kuharsky made this choice a bit easier by taking Boston College nose tackle B.J. Raji off the board one pick earlier. Some of the defensive names previously connected to the Packers were still available, including Penn State defensive end Aaron Maybin and LSU defensive end Tyson Jackson. But in this scenario I think Packers general manager Ted Thompson would select the best player available. It just so happens Green Bay has a need at the position as well.
No. 20 overall
Lions: Running back Knowshon Moreno
Why: Ah, yes. I will accept virtual pummeling via the mailbag. I know the Lions have more pressing needs than at running back. And I'm well aware they have a good young tailback in Kevin Smith and signed veteran Maurice Morris in free agency. I guess I'm just taking coach Jim Schwartz at his word that the Lions won't allow need to trump talent in this draft. When I looked at the players left on the board at this spot, I thought Moreno was clearly the best value. The Lions aren't necessarily targeting Moreno, but I think they will seek out the best value -- regardless of position -- at every spot in this draft.
No. 22 overall
Minnesota Vikings: Offensive tackle Eben Britton
Why: I went with the best offensive tackle available even with all of the draft's second-tier receivers still available (Darrius Heyward-Bey, Percy Harvin, Kenny Britt and Hakeem Nicks among them). This might be a few spots too high to take Britton, but in the end I'm not totally convinced the Vikings are targeting a first-round receiver. And that was before news surfaced that they worked out West Virginia quarterback/receiver Pat White.
As promised, here is Part II of the weekend mailbag. Thanks for waiting.
David of Gainesville, Fla., writes: I'm a Florida Gators native and diehard Viking fan. Many people have speculated Percy Harvin will slip with the drug rumors but I have seen this guy in person at every Florida home game for years. Incredible athlete, tough, and fast with pads on. Reminds me of 1998 when the Vikings picked 21 and had this guy Randy Moss fall to them because of his "issues." What are your thoughts?
Kevin Seifert: My first thought is that it's dangerous to put anyone in the Randy Moss category. Moss was one of a kind, and if I recall he was generally considered one of the best players available in the 1998 draft. I don't know that Harvin falls in that category even if you totally discount his character and drug rumors. Scouts Inc. ranks him as the 16th-best prospect and I think that's about right.
That said, I'm really intrigued by some Harvin-related comments that Minnesota vice president Rick Spielman recently offered and wonder if the Vikings aren't ready to pounce if he falls to No. 22. Spielman noted the Vikings have taken 78 players off their draft board for various red flags, but it didn't sound like Harvin was one of them. In fact, Spielman spoke pretty extensively about Harvin, saying he had "unique skills." Spielman acknowledged the rumors floating about Harvin testing positive for drugs at the scouting combine but added that the team was still "going through" Harvin's past.
Here's the full quote from Spielman, as reported by the Star Tribune:
"Good football player, had some durability issues down there at Florida. There are some rumors going around now about [him] potentially being dirty at the combine, so we're going through all that. But he's a very explosive receiver. Everybody is projecting him as a potential punt and kickoff returner. He can probably do that but he hasn't done it yet in college. Very versatile. They used him at running back, they used him at slot receiver. He has some unique skills."
I don't think receiver is as big of a need for the Vikings as others do, but in some ways this reminds me of when Spielman grabbed Adrian Peterson in the 2007 draft. That year, Spielman spoke publicly before the draft about Peterson's mending collarbone, an approach that in retrospect seemed designed to suggest the collarbone was a potential problem and enhance the chances Peterson would fall to the Vikings at No. 7 overall. The Vikings then snuck Peterson into their facility for a last-minute check on the injury before drafting him.
So what does this all mean for Harvin? I don't know yet. But part of me thinks the Vikings are hoping to grab a playmaker at a value spot after performing their due diligence on a potential danger spot.
Tom of East Lansing, Mich, writes: Quick Lions question. Is it crazy to consider the possibility that Jim Schwartz is considering a 3-4 opportunity? With Ernie Sims and Julian Peterson already there, possibly Jordon Dizon with some added weight, and potentially a high draft pick with either Aaron Curry or James Laurinaitis, it seems that the new staff is not shy to run at LBs. Couple this with some serious weight addition mandates for the D-Line, and it seems to me that Schwartz is trying to get deep at LB and bulk up the line to fill the gaps.
I specifically look at Ikaika Alama-Francis, who has said the plan is to gain as much weight as is comfortable/possible, but who the team has told will be worked solely at DE. He got to as high as 300 in college (as a 3-4 DE) and there isn't much reason to think he won't be able to again. My point? A 300 pound DE sounds like a 3-4 plan to me. I realize its crazy to think that one of the most "playmaker" deprived defenses in NFL history can go from a 4-3 to a 3-4 in one year, but is it at all possible? If they aren't there yet, what do they still need to do?
Schwartz is a smart guy, he knows he has a minimum of two years before a season record will be looked at seriously in terms of his being fired. Any chance he sees the future as a 3-4, and he figures that he might as well make the switch when the defense is already going to have a tough year, therefore reducing the risk of having two consecutive bad defensive years.? (This year because the team is rebuilding, and next year due to the switch to 3-4.) Thoughts?
Kevin Seifert: A very reasoned argument, Tom. I like it. Schwartz has said on multiple occasions that he plans to run the 4-3, but that he would never rule out the 3-4 if he determines his personnel is a better match for it. And I especially like your instinct to question what you hear. Can't tell you how many times coaches/owners/general managers have "changed their mind" on issues they previously seemed convinced about.
In this case, however, I really don't think Schwartz necessarily is looking to change schemes. He always ran a 4-3 in Tennessee and, all things equal, probably doesn't want to change now. His background with New England coach Bill Belichick suggests a capacity for schematic adjustments, but I don't think you're seeing the beginning of that process.
Rather, I think Schwartz is just looking for more competent players at the positions you mention. Acquiring Peterson to match up with Sims gives the Lions two NFL-caliber linebackers. I don't sense they have a ton of hope right now for Dizon, who was drafted to play in a specific scheme (Tampa-2) that the Lions don't run anymore. If they draft Curry, they'll have three NFL-caliber linebackers. I don't consider that stockpiling as much as just trying to find some credible starters.
The same goes for the defensive line. A 300-pound defensive end is not unheard of in the 4-3, although I grant you it's unusual. But the bulking-up edict, more than anything, is Schwartz trying to compensate for the unusually light defensive line the Lions used in recent years. Getting bigger will bring them closer to the NFL norm for a 4-3, in my opinion, and not to the beginnings of a shift to the 3-4.
Drew of Gwangju, Korea, writes: One thing I am annoyed nobody is talking about it the prospect of Green Bay taking a halfback. Ryan Grant is average at best. Of course he has shown flashes of greatness, but he is amazingly inconsistent. He also seems to have a real problem with producing anything during the first eight games of a season. Drafting another quality back to split time could be a great thing for Grant, and the Packers defense which would get to rest more while the backs run down time.
Kevin Seifert: It's an interesting topic, Drew, but one I doubt the Packers would ad
dress at No. 9 overall. This year, there might not be a running back taken among the top 10 picks of the draft. Scouts Inc. ranks Knowshon Moreno as the top running back in the draft but the 13th-best overall prospect.
That said, Grant's 2008 production hasn't sparked much offseason debate. But I imagine the Packers would like more explosion from him -- or from someone else in their running game -- in 2009.
The Packers had only four carries of 25 or more yards last season. Grant had only two of them among his 312 carries. One was a 57-yard run in the season-opening game against Minnesota, the other was for 35 yards Nov. 16 against Chicago.
It sounds odd to offer much criticsm of Grant after he produced a 1,230-yard season. But explosiveness was his primary attribute when he broke out in 2008. With a passing game as productive as the Packers', there should be more opportunities for tailbacks to break long runs.
ABOUT THIS BLOG
Kevin Seifert
Seifert joined ESPN.com in 2008 after covering the Minnesota Vikings for the Minneapolis Star Tribune for eight years. He lives in the Twin Cities with his wife and children.
