ESPN NFL

» AFC Scenarios: East | West | North | South » NFC: East | West | North | South

Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Detroit Lions in 2012.

Dream scenario (12-4): The team moves past its string of silly/immature problems, tightening up not only its off-field behavior but also its discipline on the field during games. Mikel Leshoure and Jahvid Best give the Lions a power/speed dimension in the backfield they lacked for most of last season. Rookie receiver Ryan Broyles' knee heals quickly enough to provide a legitimate fourth option among receivers and further spread out opposing defenses. Defensive tackle Nick Fairley realizes his playmaking potential and teams up with Ndamukong Suh to provide consistent and dominant interior play. Fairley, Suh, Cliff Avril and Kyle Vanden Bosch protect an undermanned secondary, and the Lions make big defensive plays against opponents that feel pressure to keep up with Detroit's offense.

Nightmare scenario (7-9): Best and Leshoure don't provide the balance the Lions hope for, either because of injuries or skill deterioration. Broyles takes longer than expected to return, Titus Young has a sophomore slump, and opponents flock to receiver Calvin Johnson. Left tackle Jeff Backus can't hold up for another season. Despite the formidable defensive line, the Lions can't cover for their secondary and give up too many big plays.

Bill Polian's list of 10 pivotal players in the NFL this season includes Detroit Lions defensive tackle Nick Fairley. You'll need an Insider subscription to see the entire file, but here is what Polian wrote about Fairley:

Fairley could be the missing piece in making the Detroit defense dominant. If the big Auburn alum can reach his potential, a trio of him, Ndamukong Suh and the emerging Corey Williams could make the Lions' D-line extremely hard to handle up the middle and wreak havoc on the pocket (which will help an improving secondary).

Fairley

I still think the Lions need more from the running back position to be legitimate title contenders, but if Fairley steps up, an already improved defense will be taken to another level.

The most interesting part of the choice is that Polian didn't bother suggesting that one of the Lions' defensive backs needs to step it up, whether it's safety Amari Spievey or cornerback Aaron Berry or anyone else who might play a prominent role in improving the team's pass defense. Polian instead focused on the impact of strengthening what is already one of the NFL's more dominant defensive fronts.

That appears to be in line with the Lions' philosophy when you look at how they've focused their roster building in recent years. Over the past three years, they've committed big money to sign defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch and retain defensive end Cliff Avril. They've used the No. 2 overall pick in the draft to select Suh, and the No. 12 overall pick brought them Fairley.

On the other hand, the Lions did use the No. 33 overall pick of the 2009 draft to select safety Louis Delmas. But for the most part, they have cobbled together the secondary with second-tier moves (and players), knowing it would be protected by a more-talented defensive line. It stands to reason that Fairley's emergence in 2012 would only enhance that approach.

Earlier: The Lions have high expectations for Fairley now that he is recovered from a foot injury he originally suffered last summer, despite a recent marijuana charge.

We're Black and Blue All Over:

The NFC North received a total of 16 nationally-televised games as part of the NFL's 2012 schedule, but to me the most groundbreaking news item was buried deep within the Green Bay Packers' news release. It read: "In 2012, the Packers will forego using their historic third jersey."

I never hid my bewilderment at the allure of the throwback jerseys the Packers used the past two years, a replica ensemble of their 1929 get-ups. The brown helmets, blue jerseys and tan pants just didn't work for me.

Long live the eye-snatchers.

Moving on to less important matters:

• The agent for Packers running back Ryan Grant implied to Rob Demovsky of the Green Bay Press-Gazette that Grant could soon be moving on to a new team.
• The Packers' sit-down with safety Nick Collins won't happen until after the draft, reports Demovsky.
• Notre Dame safety Harrison Smith could fit with the Packers, writes Tyler Dunne of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
• Justin Rogers of Mlive.com has notes on Detroit Lions receiver Calvin Johnson's visit to ESPN headquarters.
• There is some depth at cornerback in this draft, writes Chris McCosky of the Detroit News.
• Lions defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosh has no concerns about the conditioning of defensive end Cliff Avril, who is working out on his own this offseason. Carlos Monarrez of the Detroit Free Press has more.
• The Chicago Bears' schedule sets up for a fast start, writes Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune.
• Sean Jensen of the Chicago Sun-Times breaks down the Bears' schedule.
• ESPNChicago.com's Jeff Dickerson and Michael C. Wright pick the Bears to finish 11-5 based on their schedule.
• Tom Pelissero of 1500ESPN.com breaks down the Minnesota Vikings' quarterback position.
• A Vikings spokesman said "there is no next year" on their pursuit of a stadium. More from the St. Paul Pioneer Press.
• Political maneuvering has erupted from the failure of the stadium bill, according to Mike Kaszuba of the Star Tribune.
• Hennepin County is considering a play for the stadium assuming this current bill isn't revived, according to KSTP-TV.

Chicago Bears

One of the Giants' playoff heroes, wide receiver Devin Thomas, signed with the Bears.

Coach Lovie Smith feels Brandon Marshall's "big, physical presence" was a perfect fit for the Bears, writes the Chicago Tribune's Dan Pompei.

Smith is optimistic that Matt Forte’s contract status will be resolved soon. “My glass is always half-full,” Smith said Wednesday morning, according to the Chicago Sun-Times' Sean Jensen. “Everything you’ve ever heard from us, Matt Forte is our running back."

Detroit Lions

Kyle Vanden Bosch and Stephen Tulloch said the Titans did not have a bounty program when they were with the team, reports the Detroit News' Chris McCosky.

The Lions are in favor of extending the trade deadline by two weeks, but the proposal was tabled until May at the NFL owners meetings.

Wideout Titus Young might be used as a punt or kick returner this season, writes McCosky.

Green Bay Packers

Packers safety Nick Collins will meet with coach Mike McCarthy, GM Ted Thompson, the team doctor and his two agents sometime next week to determine whether it's safe for him to resume his NFL career following the serious neck injury he suffered last season, writes the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel's Tom Silverstein.

The Packers still have plans for veterans Chad Clifton and Donald Driver, according to Silverstein.

If faced with a similar situation in the future, McCarthy would sit Aaron Rodgers again in a meaningless Week 17 game, writes Rob Demovsky of the Green Bay Press-Gazette.

Minnesota Vikings

Emails released by the city of Minneapolis reveal the "behind-the-scenes frustrations and horse trading that preceded a March 1 agreement between the Vikings, the city and the state" to land the new stadium, according to a report by Star Tribune writers Eric Roper and Mike Kassuba.

The Vikings expect star running back Adrian Peterson to begin running soon on his surgically repaired left knee, reports the Star Tribune's Dan Wiederer.

Coach Leslie Frazier would still like to add a speedy receiver, writes Weiderer.

I tried to address the timeliest of your mailbag submissions during the week, and most of the others will be moot once the NFL opens its free agent market in a few days. But there are a few other topics of interest so let's hit them while we have a moment. We'll stay clear of free agency given the fluid nature of player movement, but if you're looking for a fix, I suggest Matt Williamson's ranking of the top 50 available free agents .

Remember, we interact at various degrees of intensity through the mailbag, Twitter and Facebook.

On with it…

Greg of Nashville objects to coverage of the New Orleans Saints' bounty program, which has now ensnared both the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers: Are we really to believe that this is news? You people who are supposed to be top notch journalist and you're reporting on something that has being going on ever since football began. Really, grow up.

Kevin Seifert: I, for one, have never claimed to be a top-notch journalist, but that's beside the point.

To me, it's been clear since the 2009 NFC Championship Game that the Saints were determined to get after quarterback Brett Favre, whether inside or outside the rules. That happens in many NFL games, but I truly question whether or not NFL teams and coaches have organized financial rewards for injuring opponents "ever since football began." It shifts the conversation from heat-of-the-moment violence to something that was premeditated.

That seems an obvious big deal, but don't take it from me. Journalist Joe Posnanski, one of the most eloquent sports writers of our generation, put it much better in a blog post this week. Posnanski noted that the Saints' bounty program was a form of gambling, that it was a rule-breaking attempt to alter games and approaches a crime.

If a baseball pitcher threw at the head of an opponent, and was later ruled to have been offered money for knocking the batter out of the game, would we hear the same "part-of-the-game" pushback? Posnanski doubts it, and I agree. Fans would be outraged. If anything, Posnanski argued, football has made us numb to anything that rises above its typical level of violence.

Posnanski:" "Is our love of pro football -- the spectacle, the violence, the thrills and sheer ferocity of it all -- so insatiable that nothing will ever shock or disgust us again?"

Sadly, it appears that way.

---

Jimmy of Philadelphia provides a clarification to our introduction of the "Madden 13" cover contest: Your article about Peyton Hillis beating out Aaron Rodgers for the Madden cover and experiencing the subsequent Madden curse is not completely factual. Aaron Rodgers didn't make the final voting stage, and was beaten out by Michael Vick, who was the other finalist alongside Hillis.

Kevin Seifert: Ah yes. I think that final fell in the category of a championship game forever shadowed by a historic earlier-round game. Think "The Catch" in the 1981 NFC Championship Game. It gave the San Francisco 49ers a victory and sent them off to Super Bowl XVI. Do you remember who the 49ers beat for the title? I had to look it up. (It was the Cincinnati Bengals.)

---

Matt of Michigan notes the New York Giants' successful renegotiation of quarterback Eli Manning's contract and writes: Why aren't we hearing more from teams like the Lions and Rams who have cap troubles now because of their high draft history restructuring deals with their top players. Eli just did it for NY so he can make more money later on when the next big TV contract comes in and the team has a higher cap figure to play with. Do you think the Lions will try to work something out with Ndamukong Suh and Matthew Stafford?

Kevin Seifert: It's a possibility, but keep in mind a few factors.

The Lions renegotiated the contracts of Stafford, receiver Calvin Johnson and defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch last August to relieve their 2011 crunch. The changes weren't dramatic, but they did push some cap commitments into this year and beyond.

There are plenty of cap tricks to lower a given year's number, but eventually they come due. You're not eliminating a problem by renegotiating. You're pushing it forward.

To that end, the Lions are trying to stabilize their long-term prospects first by extending Johnson's contract, a method of spreading out his cap commitment naturally. If necessary, Stafford and Suh could re-arrange their deals to provide short-term relief. But the most successful long-term cap strategy is to absorb the biggest hits you're able to manage each year to maintain maximum flexibility.

---

WiBear434 of Kentucky wants to know if the Chicago Bears will give Chris Williams a chance to compete at left tackle, the position he was originally drafted to play in 2008.

Kevin Seifert: I guess stranger things have happened, but I doubt it. The big goal last season was to find a position for Williams and leave him there. He was a decent left guard in 2011, and while the natural tendency is to get greedy and hope he can hold down a more difficult position, it's now been almost two years since he played left tackle. That ship might have sailed.

---

Earl of Hawaii wants to know why there is no mention yet of any plans to try Everson Griffen at LB (middle or outside). One of the most talented & athletically gifted guys on the team needs to be starting on an older team that just went 3 and 13.

Kevin Seifert: As we've found in the case of backup quarterback Joe Webb, it's more difficult to change positions in the NFL than most fans think or hope. It's possible the Vikings could find some snaps for Griffen at outside linebacker on passing downs, but if they want to get him on the field, they might want to consider developing a more flexible rotation at defensive end.

Starters Jared Allen and Brian Robison played more snaps in 2011 than any defensive end duo in the NFL. Allen led all defensive ends by playing on 95 percent of the Vikings' snaps, while Robison ranked 11th at 84 percent. Griffen played 25 percent of their plays.

There would be nothing wrong with mixing in Griffen to a greater extent, keeping both Allen and Robison fresh over a 16-game season.

We're Black and Blue All Over:

One of the key events of the Minnesota Vikings' offseason is taking place in a Minneapolis court room this week. The felony trial of cornerback Chris Cook, a talented player at a position of otherwise thin depth, began Monday with jury selection.

The Vikings have indicated the trial's outcome will determine Cook's future with the team. He hasn't played since being arrested Oct. 22 and ultimately charged with felony strangulation and third-degree assault after a domestic incident with his girlfriend.

Coverage here from Dan Wiederer of the Star Tribune and Emily Gurnon of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. According to Gurnon, the trial could hinge on a conversation between Cook and his girlfriend in which she recanted accusations that he strangled her.

Continuing around the NFC North:

• The Vikings have not yet finalized their roster decisions but should do so by Saturday, according to Tom Pelissero of 1500ESPN.com.
• Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel isn't convinced that the Green Bay Packers will get a third-round compensatory draft pick next year for the departure of quarterback Matt Flynn.
• Kareem Copeland of the Green Bay Press-Gazette takes a closer look at the Packers' plans to adjust their running game.
• Detroit Lions defensive end Cliff Avril on receiving the team's franchise tag, via Chrissie Wywrot of the Lions' website: "Honestly and truthfully -- at the end of the day -- I'm very, very fortunate to be franchised by an NFL team. I'm very blessed. That being said, being a business, you always want to do what's best for you and your family. Being franchised -- I'm blessed and I'm definitely happy about being considered a player to give that tag to. I just hope we can continue to negotiate and try to get something done."
• Lions defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch called Avril "our unquestioned MVP last year," according to Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press.
• The Chicago Bears were believed to have been interested in signing Avril, notes Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune.
• Sean Jensen of the Chicago Sun-Times tries to establish the value of Bears tailback Matt Forte.
• Melissa Isaacson of ESPNChicago.com considers the history of bounties between the Bears and Packers.

Speaking last month at the NFL scouting combine, Detroit Lions general manager Martin Mayhew said the only thing worse than using the franchise tag on defensive end Cliff Avril was the prospect of losing him via free agency. So for that reason, we had every reason to believe the Lions would tag Avril if they couldn't agree to a long-term contract before Monday.

And that's exactly what has happened, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter and others. Avril is the second NFC North player to receive the franchise tag, joining Chicago Bears tailback Matt Forte, and would have the equivalent of a one-year contract worth about $11 million if nothing changes between now and the 2012 season. As a non-exclusive franchise player, Avril has the right to sign with another team if it's willing to part with a pair of first-round draft choices. Such steep compensation makes movement for franchise players highly unlikely.

Because the Lions have never seemed to waver on Avril's future, the real question has always been how his franchise number would impact the rest of the Lions' already-tight salary cap structure. They will have a cap charge of nearly $11 million for Avril, and as we discussed in January, they already are carrying high cap charges for receiver Calvin Johnson (about $22 million), quarterback Matthew Stafford (about $17 million), defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh (about $12.7 million) and defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch (about $7.7 million).

If those numbers don't change, the Lions would have about $70 million in cap space committed to five players. Unless Johnson or Avril agree to contract extensions that lower their 2012 cap numbers, the Lions' offseason shopping will be limited. Among the possible repercussions could be the departure of middle linebacker Stephen Tulloch.

As we've noted many times, there are plenty of cap tricks to squeeze in players for a given year. The cost, of course, is future flexibility. The Lions have weighed their options, and losing Avril wasn't one they were prepared to absorb.

We've used 2011 playing-time statistics to identify a number of trends and important points, from the perfect attendance of Chicago Bears linebacker Lance Briggs to the reliability of Detroit Lions tight end Brandon Pettigrew to the curious limitations placed upon Minnesota Vikings receiver Percy Harvin. Now let's sift though some other figures that don't demand dramatic conclusions but are of interest nonetheless.

1. We noted that Briggs played every defensive snap for the Bears last season. Five other players, all offensive linemen, also never missed a play. That list includes Chicago Bears center Roberto Garza and left tackle J'Marcus Webb, Detroit Lions guards Stephen Peterman and Rob Sims, and Green Bay Packers guard/tackle T.J. Lang.
2. Minnesota Vikings left tackle Charlie Johnson missed a grand total of eight plays in 2011. Lions center Dominic Raiola missed nine plays and Packers center Scott Wells missed 29. Vikings right tackle Phil Loadholt played all but 33 snaps.
3. Depth issues at defensive end surfaced for several teams. The Vikings' Jared Allen led all NFL players at his position by playing on 94.3 percent of his team's snaps, and teammate Brian Robison ranked 11th among defensive ends by playing 84.4 percent. Meanwhile, the Bears' Israel Idonije was on the field for 84.6 percent of his team's snaps, with Julius Peppers close behind at 82.1. Obviously that foursome is a good group of players, but it's also clear that their teams didn't have backups they felt comfortable rolling in.
4. Consider that conclusion in the context of how the well-stocked Lions rotated their defensive ends. Cliff Avril played on 72 percent of their snaps and Kyle Vanden Bosch was on the field for 67.9 percent. Lawrence Jackson played on 30.1 percent of the Lions' snaps despite injuries that limited him to 11 games, while backup Willie Young saw action 22.7 percent of plays over 14 games.
5. The NFC North had two workhorse middle linebackers. The Bears' Brian Urlacher missed only 14 plays, most of which came after a knee injury in the season finale. The Lions' Stephen Tulloch, meanwhile, missed only 19 of 1,098 defensive snaps.
6. Bears running back Matt Forte was on the field for the 10th-most plays (564) among running backs despite missing four-plus games because of a knee injury.

With the offseason in full swing, let's take a look at one major question facing each NFC North team as it begins preparations for the 2012 season:

CHICAGO BEARS

In last year's version of Leading Questions, we wondered when the Bears would address the depth behind their aging defensive stars. That issue is still on the table, but of greater 2012 importance is this: How will the Bears manage their transition to new offensive coordinator Mike Tice?

Tice will retain much of the terminology and some of the philosophy from former coordinator Mike Martz. But Tice has his own spin on the "three-digit offense," and the Bears will need to realign behind a power running game and a passing approach that emphasizes downfield throws.

Tight end and receiver are two positions the Bears need to focus on this offseason, either by developing their existing players like Kellen Davis and/or acquiring a legitimate downfield threat. New general manager Phil Emery should have more than $20 million in cap space to work with, and the free-agent market should be deep with receivers.

But to make Tice's offense work, Emery will also need to ensure the return of free-agent tailback Matt Forte and find him a reliable backup as well.

DETROIT LIONS

In a tight salary-cap situation, can the Lions keep their nucleus together and add where needed?

Years of high draft positioning made the Lions a talented team but also one facing a cap crunch in 2012. Preliminary cap reconciliation leaves the Lions with $122 million in cap commitments, about $2 million above the estimated $120 million cap. And that total doesn't include three defensive starters who are pending free agents: defensive end Cliff Avril, middle linebacker Stephen Tulloch and cornerback Eric Wright.

The Lions will need to find ways to shave from that total, whether it's borrowing from future caps -- a tool now available in the NFL's new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) -- or reducing the cap figures in existing contracts.

As we've discussed, receiver Calvin Johnson should be the first target for a cap-reducing contract extension. He's projected to account for about $22 million against the cap in the final year of his rookie deal. Johnson, quarterback Matthew Stafford, defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh and defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch are estimated to account for nearly half of the Lions' total cap allotment.

What does all this mean? We are all figuring out the NFL's new salary-cap rules together, but it's clear the Lions must make some difficult short-term decisions and weigh them against long-term prosperity.

GREEN BAY PACKERS

What can the Packers do to improve a pass defense that gave up more passing yards than any team in NFL history?

The easiest answer is to address the pass rush, which weakened in 2011 when the Packers couldn't find a suitable replacement for departed free agent Cullen Jenkins. The rush could come from the defensive end position, where the Packers have waited two years for the highly touted Mike Neal to make an impact, or through acquiring a pass-rushing outside linebacker.

General manager Ted Thompson has been reluctant in recent years to utilize veteran free agency, and the truth is that few teams allow a legitimate pass-rusher to depart without compensation. But the situation was serious enough in 2011 that Thompson will at least need to consider every avenue available for a substantial and fast-acting solution. The Packers had 29 sacks in 2011, tied for the third-worst total in the NFL.

Parallel to that issue, however, Thompson will also have to monitor a situation at safety that contributed to the Packers' defensive problems in 2011. Pro Bowl safety Nick Collins will find out in March whether he can continue his career or if he must retire because of a serious neck injury. The Packers missed his leadership and instincts in center field and would need to acquire a long-term replacement if he retires.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

The development of quarterback Christian Ponder will dominate many of the Vikings' offseason headlines, but there is an equally important question hovering over the team: How fast can it upgrade its historically poor pass defense?

Vikings opponents finished the season with a 107.6 passer rating, the third-highest figure in NFL history. Their eight interceptions tied for the league's lowest total in 2011 and only one player among the back seven who started the majority of games in 2011 -- linebacker Chad Greenway -- is assured a starting job in 2012.

It's difficult to replace six starters in one offseason, but the Vikings have already begun their defensive overhaul by hiring new defensive coordinator Alan Williams, bringing back Brendan Daly as their defensive line coach and making former coordinator, Fred Pagac, their primary linebackers coach.

The personnel situation is most dire in the secondary, where two of the Vikings' primary safeties -- Husain Abdullah and Tyrell Johnson -- are free agents. Talented cornerback Chris Cook, suspended for the final 10 games of the season following a domestic-violence incident, remains in limbo. Cook's trial date is tentatively scheduled for March 5. The future of veteran cornerback Antoine Winfield must be addressed as well; Winfield turns 35 in June.

The NFL's new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) has brought an issue we haven't faced in a number of years: Tight salary-cap situations.

After jumping considerably in the final few years of the old CBA, the league's cap limit isn't expected to rise much, if any, for the 2012 season. That means teams will have roughly $120 million to work with as they assemble the top 51 players on their training camp roster.

Based on the numbers I've been able to dig up, it appears that three of our four NFC North teams are going to be relatively tight against that number, especially considering they need to save room for signing a draft class. All teams must be in compliance when the new league year opens, and free agency begins, on March 13.

The following is how much each team currently has committed to its 2012 cap. Keep in mind that the numbers probably will change between now and March 13 as teams re-sign, re-negotiate and release players from their rosters.

• Chicago Bears: $101.8 million
• Detroit Lions: $122.8 million
• Green Bay Packers: $115.3 million
• Minnesota Vikings: $115.3 million

A few thoughts:

1. We've already discussed the Lions' situation at some length. Simple math tells us they're going to have to adjust some current salaries just to get under $120 million, and the first candidate is receiver Calvin Johnson, who is projected to count about $22 million against the cap alone. As we've noted, four players -- Johnson, quarterback Matthew Stafford, defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh and defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch -- account for nearly half of their total cap projection.
2. There are tricks available for teams like the Lions who want to keep or re-sign their players in a tight environment. They come with risks and the potential for future problems, but there is always a way to squeeze players into a given year's cap. The new CBA has a provision that allows teams to borrow against future caps, providing another option.
3. One positive bi-product of the Bears' decision to trade for quarterback Jay Cutler in 2009: It relieved them of the cap commitment associated with two first-round draft picks. That's one of the reasons new general manager Phil Emery has some $18 million to work with if he wants to sign veteran free agents and/or use his franchise tag on tailback Matt Forte.
4. The Packers have a number of veterans they want to re-sign, including tight end Jermichael Finley and center Scott Wells. With about $5 million in wiggle room, based on these numbers, they'll need to make some adjustments to fit both players in. As Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel has already suggested, the Packers could carve out some space by either releasing receiver Donald Driver or renegotiating his contract. The same could happen for left tackle Chad Clifton.
5. Still, it should be clear why it seems unlikely that the Packers would place their franchise tag on quarterback Matt Flynn for the purposes of trading him after March 13. Doing so would require a $14 million cap commitment, require more cap maneuvering than would be comfortable and likely exposing either Finley or Wells to the free agent market.

Previewing some of the big decisions facing NFC North teams early in the 2012 offseason:

It's been a while since the Detroit Lions have faced the kind of dilemma they have with defensive end Cliff Avril, a homegrown talent and pending free agent who is in line for a budget-busting contract.

Edge pass rushers are among the most valuable commodities in the NFL, and in 2011, Avril broke out with 11 sacks and a league-high six forced fumbles. He also scored touchdowns on separate fumble and interception returns, showing the kind of athleticism that could make him a fit in either a 4-3 or 3-4 scheme.

The Lions, of course, are in a tight cap situation that will make for what general manager Martin Mayhew has acknowledged will be his most challenging offseason. Four players — receiver Calvin Johnson, quarterback Matthew Stafford, defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh and defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch — are projected to account for half of the $120 million cap in 2012. That leaves the Lions about $60 million in cap space to squeeze in 47 other players, including Avril if they want.

One option is to use the franchise tag, which would require about $10.6 million in cash and cap commitment to Avril for 2012 and leave him unsigned thereafter. A long-term contract isn't likely to count much less against the 2012 cap unless the Lions artificially backload it and create a bigger headache in future seasons.

The starting point for negotiations with Avril would almost certainly be the six-year, $72 million contract the Carolina Panthers gave defensive end Charles Johnson last season.

Like Avril, Johnson was 25 and emerging from a career year (11.5 sacks) as he entered free agency. The Panthers were motivated by the belief that a division rival, the Atlanta Falcons, would try to sign him on the open market, and in the end gave Johnson a deal that guaranteed him $34 million. Of that total, $30 million was in the form of a signing bonus that could be spread out over the life of the contract. His cap number was $10 million in 2011 and will fluctuate between $11 million and $16 million over the next five years.

Either way, the Lions probably would have to devote around $11 million in cap space toward retaining Avril for 2012. Is that a wise investment for a team that has about $20 million in 2012 cap space already devoted to a pair of other defensive linemen? Suh is projected to count for $12.7 million, while Vanden Bosch is around $7.7 million.

On the other hand, the Lions know how difficult it is to find a pass rusher with double-digit sack potential. Since the NFL began recording sacks in 1982, a span of 30 seasons, Avril is one of eight Lions players to reach the milestone.

Like anything else in the cap era, the Lions have the wherewithal to keep Avril in 2012. It just depends on how much they're willing to prioritize him, and sacrifice elsewhere, to do it.

Chicago Bears

The Bears interviewed current director of player personnel Tim Ruskell for their GM vacancy, reports ESPNChicago.com's Michael C. Wright.

Bob Bostad, who recently left the Wisconsin Badgers to become the Pitt Panthers' offensive coordinator, is in the mix to become the Bears' new offensive line coach, reports Wright.

Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune examines how the Bears' offensive line performed in 2011 and how it looks heading into next season.

Detroit Lions

GM Martin Mayhew is pleased with the contributions the team has gotten from 2010 free-agent additions Nate Burleson and Kyle Vanden Bosch. "[Burleson] has been great. He and Kyle both have been great leaders for us, great in the locker room."

Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press take a look at five early entry draft prospects who could be of interest to the Lions.

Green Bay Packers

According to Jermichael Finley's agent, Blake Baratz, the team would like to sign the tight end to long-term deal rather than use the franchise tag on him, reports Kareem Copeland of the Green Bay Press-Gazette.

The Buccaneers interviewed offensive coordinator Joe Philbin and quarterbacks coach Tom Clements separately in Dallas on Thursday for Tampa's head-coaching job.

Minnesota Vikings

The divided Minneapolis City Council suddenly finds itself at the center of the Vikings' stadium debate. The Pioneer Press' Frederick Melo writes that proponents of an Arden Hills stadium proposal are searching for a "Hail Mary."

The Star Tribune's Dan Wiederer has four things you need to know following the Vikings' coaching shake-up on Thursday.

This week's look at the Detroit Lions' contract predicament with receiver Calvin Johnson brought a number of questions to the NFC North blog inbox. Many of you wanted to know how it came to be that the Lions' best player will count a whopping $22 million against their 2012 salary cap, the start of a cap headache that could increase by increments of 120 percent

There really aren't any obvious targets for blame. In reality, the Lions are entering into a unique period where they must absorb the cumulative weight of their annual high position in the draft before the NFL created a new rookie wage scale last summer.

Between 2007 and 2010, the Lions drafted No. 1 overall once and twice were at No. 2. The combined 2012 cap numbers of those three players are going to be nearly $52 million, based on numbers I saw that were updated at midseason. If nothing has changed since then, that means Johnson, quarterback Matthew Stafford and defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh are set to account for more than 40 percent of the Lions' total cap structure in 2012. The commitment increases to nearly $60 million when you count the contract of defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch, a high-profile free agent signed in 2010.

Here's the breakdown based on what I know:

Calvin Johnson
Projected 2012 cap number: $22 million
Comment: The Lions would like to bring that number down with an offseason contract extension, but as we discussed Monday, they're going to have a tough time avoiding a huge cash outlay that would still leave him with a relatively high cap number.

Matthew Stafford
Projected 2012 cap number: $17.1 million
Comment: Stafford renegotiated his deal last summer to create room under the 2011 cap. According to Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press, he earned a $1 million performance bonus in 2011 that added to his 2012 cap total.

Ndamukong Suh
Projected 2012 cap cumber: $12.7 million
Comment: Suh's five-year, $68 million contract came in the last year of the old rookie cap structure.

Kyle Vanden Bosch
Projected 2012 cap number: $7.7 million
Comment: Like Stafford, Vanden Bosch renegotiated last summer to create more room for 2011.

The NFL goes through a process of reconciling bonuses and other figures to determine the total cap number of a team's roster as free agency approaches in March. I don't yet have the projection, so we're missing an important piece of the puzzle: How close the Lions are to the NFL's projected $120 million cap limit for 2012.

But generally speaking, when four players account for perhaps half ($60 million) of your total cap figure ($120 million), you're going to have to work hard to squeeze in the other 47. (Only the highest 51 players on a roster count toward the cap.) That's the challenge the Lions will face in trying to re-sign defensive end Cliff Avril, linebacker Stephen Tulloch, cornerback Eric Wright and others.

Again, I really don't think the Lions did anything wrong here. They paid Johnson, Stafford and Suh pretty much what they had to under the old system. Vanden Bosch's deal was market value for an established pass rusher. And make no mistake: Their acquisitions were a big part of why the Lions won 10 games and made the playoffs in 2011.

Now comes the next step. We'll see how it plays out.

NEW ORLEANS -- Congratulations are in order for the Detroit Lions. Graduating from preschool is a momentous occasion for any young pup, and that is where I see the Lions now that their 2011 season is in the books.

Saturday night's 45-28 loss to the New Orleans Saints should be the last time the Lions are graded on a curve, cheered for their effort or applauded for an accomplishment other than a victory. It's true: No one expected them to beat the Saints, who now are 9-0 at home since the start of the regular season. And few if any will have harsh words after the Lions collapsed in the fourth quarter against the NFL's hottest quarterback.

But after returning to relevance this season, the Lions have earned themselves big-boy treatment moving forward, both inside the organization and outside. Expectations for this team will rise in 2012, for good reason. They won't be celebrated for a winning season or even a playoff berth. With a 23-year-old quarterback teaming with the NFL's best receiver in a pass-happy league, the Lions should neither sneak up on anyone nor have their success be considered a surprise.

"We know we're building something really good," defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch said. "We have really good players. We have a lot of potential. ... But this is where we expect to be. Now we expect to go further. We expect to do more. I don't think in the future, people around the league are going to be surprised that the Detroit Lions are in the playoffs. This is where we belong. This is where we're going to be for a long time."

For the old Lions, we would note that they led the Saints at halftime and trailed by only three points, 24-21, as the fourth quarter began. Moving forward, we'll note that their defense -- shaky for much of the game -- got run over in the fourth quarter. The Saints put up 21 points and 192 yards in the final 9 minutes, 53 seconds of the game, running away with a playoff game the way prospective champions always do.

We won't hold Saturday night's Lions to that standard, of course. None of their players had won a postseason game wearing a Lions uniform. No one in the organization younger than 54 had been born the last time the Lions won a playoff game on the road. This wasn't a team that would know how to react in such a situation. That should never be the case again, however.

"It was a learning experience for our whole team," said quarterback Matthew Stafford, who threw for 380 yards and three touchdowns in his first playoff start but also forced a pair of fourth-quarter interceptions. "We'll be back. We have a confident bunch of guys. Obviously it hurts right now, but we'll be ready to go."

Stafford and receiver Calvin Johnson sit at the center of that confidence and the inevitably rising expectations for the team. Stafford targeted Johnson on 15 passes Saturday night despite a Saints defense dedicated to stopping him, connecting for 12 receptions, 211 yards and a pair of touchdowns. In their past four games, Stafford and Johnson have combined for an incredible 771 passing yards and six touchdowns.

Considering the NFL's shift toward the passing game in recent years, the Stafford-Johnson duo is enough on its own to expect big things from the 2012 Lions. If there is a concern, it's a defense that allowed a postseason-record 626 total yards Saturday night. In its final two outings of the 2011 campaign, the defense allowed 90 points and a whopping 1,176 yards.

On Saturday night, we'll note that those games came against two of the best offenses in the NFL -- the Saints and Green Bay Packers. Moving forward, it'll be fair to ask why the Lions couldn't hang better with the best of the best.

Defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham took his 2011 approach to an extreme Saturday night, sending four or fewer pass-rushers on 90 percent of Brees' drop-backs, according to ESPN Stats & Information. The Lions got some incremental pressure on him, sacking Brees twice, hitting him four times and forcing a second-quarter fumble.

The Lions forced some errant passes, noted coach Jim Schwartz, "but we weren't able to capitalize on those errant passes." Overall, Brees torched the Lions for 33 completions in 43 attempts for 466 yards and three touchdowns.

Schwartz, to be clear, already had moved to 2012 mode when he met with reporters afterward. He angrily pointed at three dropped interceptions, three fourth downs the Saints converted and the Saints' 7-for-11 performance on third down.

"This game was all about missed opportunities on defense," he said.

I didn’t walk away thinking the Lions had botched a legitimate chance to win. I felt the same way I felt heading in: The Lions needed to play a perfect game to beat the Saints in this environment. They couldn’t drop one interception, let alone three. They couldn’t miss a single tackle, much less the dozen or so Saints tailback Pierre Thomas and others ran through. (The Saints gained 92 of their 167 rushing yards after contact, according to ESPN Stats & Information). They couldn’t miss a single opportunity to pad their first-half lead, let alone punt after both takeaways.

I wouldn't expect Schwartz to agree. He is the coach and has been the driving force behind reversing the Lions' losing culture. Next season, I'll be right there with him. The Lions will no longer be an oddity, an unknown quantity or a feel-good story. They enter the offseason as one of the NFL's upper-echelon teams, and it's time we all raised our standards and treated them accordingly.

To their credit, most Lions players are already there.

"I feel good about what we have coming back, but this is a hard one to swallow right now," center Dominic Raiola said. "I'm stunned. One and done. Yeah, it was a successful season, I think. I don't think anyone predicted us to go to the playoffs. But you don't want to hang your hat on this. We weren't just happy to be in the playoffs. We're disappointed right now."

Really? A member of the Detroit Lions disappointed to have lost a playoff game? That's the way it should be. My, how far they've already come. Play time is over.

» Wild-Card Final Word: Bengals-Texans | Lions-Saints | Falcons-Giants | Steelers-Broncos

Three nuggets of knowledge about Saturday's Lions-Saints wild-card game:

Historic battle: I did my best this week to make our preview coverage about the actual game and its matchups, as opposed to just how unprecedented a victory Saturday night would be in recent Lions history. (Here's a link to our handy "Lions-Saints" tag.) But here goes: The Lions are one of two NFL teams never to have won a wild-card playoff game, tallying an 0-6 record since its advent, according to ESPN Stats & Information. They haven't won a playoff game of any sort since the 1991 season, and its been 54 years since they've won a playoff game on the road (a 31-27 victory at the San Francisco 49ers in the 1957 Western Conference playoffs). The Lions are 11-point underdogs against a Saints team that hasn't lost at home this season. It's no surprise that the Twitter hashtag #shocktheworld has emerged this week. For any number of reasons, there aren't many people counting on a Lions victory Saturday night.

More than Megatron: Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams noted this week that "guys that are 6-5 end up being 5-5 when they get flipped over on their head," an obvious reference to Lions receiver Calvin Johnson. But no matter how much attention the Saints pay to Johnson, they'll no doubt be aware of the impressive across-the-board production the Lions got during their 3-1 finish to the regular season. Johnson caught 27 passes and four touchdowns over that span, but tight end Brandon Pettigrew also caught 27 passes, while receiver Nate Burleson had 22 and Titus Young 17. Young scored four touchdowns, Pettigrew two and Burleson one. The Lions aren't likely to win if Johnson gets shut out, but they have the capacity to compete even if he is limited, especially if quarterback Matthew Stafford can beat the Saints' blitz as we discussed earlier this week.

Impact player: As the quarterback, Stafford will have more opportunities to impact the outcome of the game than any other Lions player. But a close second will be any of the Lions' key pass-rushers up front. Whether it's Ndamukong Suh or Kyle Vanden Bosch or Cliff Avril, someone needs to make Saints quarterback Drew Brees uncomfortable in the pocket early and maintain the pressure for the duration. Otherwise, Brees will pick the Lions apart. In the teams' first meeting, the Lions put Brees under duress on only three of his 38 dropbacks. He completed 26 of his resulting 36 passes for 342 yards and three touchdowns. Suh, Vanden Bosch and Avril have each had dominant games at one point or another in their careers. At least one of them must produce another Saturday night.