NFC North: Matthew Stafford

Jeff of Chicago noted the earlier post on the Jay Cutler's pocket timing and asked: "Could you post the time and ranking of the other QBs in the NFCN? I'm most curious where Aaron Rodgers falls, since he gets a lot of criticism for the same thing Cutler does here."

Ask and you shall receive. (Sometimes. When I'm in the mood.)

The chart, courtesy of the data mine of ESPN Stats & Information, shows the average amount of time each NFC North quarterback spent in the pocket (TIP) before the pass during the 2012 season. NFL rankings are based on quarterbacks with at least two starts, and I also threw in the sack rate per drop-back to give you the best apples-to-apples comparison that I could between TIP and sacks.

(It's important to note that TIP doesn't factor in the time a quarterback spends outside of the pocket before a pass. But my sense is that most sacks occur on plays when quarterbacks stay in the pocket.)

To be sure, holding the ball too long is one of multiple reasons a sack can occur. Pass protection, coverage and play calls all play in to it as well. But it's worth noting the difference between, say, Matthew Stafford's average time and sack rate with that of Cutler and Rodgers.

Rodgers' numbers probably require a separate conversation that we'll only start today. I was asked in Tuesday's SportsNation chat if there is anything Rodgers could do better. My response: The Packers would love to reduce his sack total, which is at least a partial reflection of his responsibility.

Rodgers has been accused over the years of holding the ball too long, leading to additional sacks. The counterargument, which I accept for the most part, is that holding the ball for longer than an optimal time can also lead to more big plays. Would you trade a few additional sacks if you knew the approach would also lead to more touchdowns? Probably.

So I'm not ready to make any grand judgments on Rogers' TIP and his sack total. The numbers are open to interpretation. But to answer Jeff's original question: Yes, based on the way ESPN Stats & Information times it, Rodgers holds the ball in the pocket longer than any other NFC North quarterback.
video
I participated in this Blogger Blitz video with NFC West blogger Mike Sando, mostly because I was the only ESPN.com NFL blogger willing to discuss expected wins above average metrics as it relates to quarterbacks on a 65-degree spring day. (Mike has this post and this post on the topic.)

It's actually simpler than it sounds. You remember Total Quarterback Rating, right? QBR? Well, it can be used to estimate how a quarterback impacts his team's won-loss record.

An average quarterback has a 50 QBR on a scale of 0-100. So if you take the difference between a quarterback's QBR and 50, and then spread that percentage over 16 games, you can calculate how many extra wins (or losses) the quarterback contributed to a season that team would have had with an average quarterback.

The video provides more context and the chart provides the raw data on NFC North quarterbacks. "WAA" refers to the number of wins above average each quarterback has produced per season in their careers, according to QBR analysis. (Jay Cutler's figures exclude his time with the Denver Broncos.)

Three of our four quarterbacks have played above the NFL average since the start of the 2008 season, with the Green Bay Packers' Aaron Rodgers doing the most to elevate his team's win total. Quarterback Christian Ponder's negative WAA means his play has brought down the Vikings' win total by 0.7 games per season.

Many of you will look at this analysis and suggest that Rodgers, Cutler and the Detroit Lions' Matthew Stafford have meant more to their teams than their WAA indicates. The best way to explain that objection is that WAA isn't indicating that. It is a comparative statistic based on the average quarterback's performance, not the sum total of each quarterback's contribution. The goal is to find out how much more the quarterback is adding, or not, to his team's fortunes.
We're Black and Blue All Over:

Conventional wisdom suggests Monday could be the day the Minnesota Vikings part ways with punter Chris Kluwe.

As we've discussed, the Vikings made UCLA punter Jeff Locke their fifth-round draft pick last month. Teams rarely use draft picks on specialists if they haven't decided to make a change, and Locke went through a three-day minicamp over the weekend with the rest of the Vikings' rookies.

Kluwe has told Chip Scoggins of the Star Tribune and others that he is scheduled to meet Monday with general manager Rick Spielman, presumably after the Vikings had seen what they needed to see from Locke in rookie minicamp. The Vikings followed a similar approach when transitioning last year from veteran place-kicker Ryan Longwell to rookie Blair Walsh. Stay tuned.

Let's continue around the NFC North:
  • Scoggins: "Kluwe’s departure will make the Vikings locker room a lot more dull because he is incredibly intelligent, articulate and passionate about societal issues. He's a fascinating individual in a sport that breeds conformity. The NFL has become so big and so powerful that players often cling to political correctness for fear that a ripple might swell into a tidal wave. Kluwe is that surfer dude on top of the wave, hanging 10 on any issue that stirs his emotion."
  • Linebacker Gerald Hodges said he didn't come to the Vikings to be a backup. More from Andrew Krammer of 1500ESPN.com.
  • Duron Carter, the son of Hall of Fame receiver Cris Carter, was "nervous" on the opening day of Vikings rookie minicamp, according to Ben Goessling of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. Carter was among 34 players trying out for a roster spot.
  • Weston Hodkiewicz of the Green Bay Press-Gazette profiles Green Bay Packers draft pick Datone Jones, whose mother never wanted him to play football.
  • The Packers' annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for June 24, notes Jason Wilde of ESPNMilwaukee.com.
  • Receiver Myles White, signed by the Packers as a rookie free agent, is fast. Tyler Dunne of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel explains.
  • Anwar S. Richardson of Mlive.com doesn't think the Detroit Lions and quarterback Matthew Stafford will reach a contract agreement this offseason.
  • There are still questions about the protection Stafford will receive this season, writes Josh Katzenstein of the Detroit News.
  • It's pretty evident that Lions rookie defensive end Ziggy Ansah is smart, writes Carlos Monarrez of the Detroit Free Press.
  • Chicago Bears director of pro scouting Chris Ballard has departed to join the Kansas City Chiefs' front office, according to Jeff Dickerson of ESPNChicago.com.
  • Dan Pompei of the Chicago Tribune examines some of the athletic and physical measurements of the Bears' draft class. Among them: First-round draft pick Kyle Long has 15.8 percent body fat, lowest among all offensive linemen tested at the scouting combine.

NFC North draft analysis

April, 27, 2013
Apr 27
6:25
PM ET
» NFC draft analysis: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

How top-heavy was the 2013 draft in the NFC North? We welcomed more players in the first round (six) than in the second and third rounds combined (four), the result of two big trades.

With the 2013 affair basically in the books, let's take a closer look at its highs and lows. So much happened that we might not get to the relatively rare occurrence of two punters being drafted.

Onward:

BEST MOVE

The Green Bay Packers have gone 43 games without a 100-yard rusher, the longest active streak in the NFL by more than twice. Their running backs have combined for 12 rushing touchdowns over the past three seasons, the fewest in the NFL, and their average of 3.8 yards per rush over that span is tied for last in the league.

After years of subordinating this segment of their roster, the Packers reacted aggressively in 2013. They drafted not one but two of the top running backs available. Alabama's Eddie Lacy came in the second round (No. 61 overall), and UCLA's Johnathan Franklin came in the fourth round (No. 125 overall).

The relative flurry came at a time when the rest of the league appeared to have devalued the position. It was the first time in the history of the modern draft that zero running backs were selected in the first round. Perhaps the timing was coincidence, but if general manager Ted Thompson intended to capitalize on depressed prices to load up, it was a brilliant thought.

Thompson and the Packers had been trying to patch together the position ever since Ryan Grant broke his ankle in Week 1 of the 2010 season. It was time to find a more permanent solution, and Lacy and Franklin give them the personnel infusion they needed.

Runner-up: Like the Packers, the Chicago Bears finally attacked an area of need. They used two of their first three selections in what was originally a five-pick draft on high-end linebackers who actually project as starters rather than special-teams contributors. Second-rounder Jonathan Bostic could be the Bears' middle linebacker as early as this season, and fourth-rounder Khaseem Greene was one of the best defensive playmakers in college football last season.

RISKIEST MOVE

The Minnesota Vikings used four draft picks to move back into the first round and select Tennessee receiver Cordarrelle Patterson, taking on risk in two forms.

First, Patterson is a boom-or-bust prospect who spent only one year playing at the Division I level. He has the physical tools to be an exceptional player but has more development ahead of him than most first-round picks. Here's how ESPN analyst Todd McShay put it before the draft: "He scares me coming out of Tennessee, but I see the talent. … Patterson, with the ball in his hands, is just freakish, and even though he disappears for 30-40 plays [per game], he'll show up with one or two big plays a game that just kind of blow your mind and leave you wanting more."

At the very least, Patterson will need to be guided through the early part of his career. The Vikings hope to start him off as a kickoff returner and work him into their offense slowly. Expecting him to jump into the starting lineup alongside Greg Jennings for a full 70 plays per game is probably unrealistic.

Second, the trade left the Vikings unable to fill one of their most pressing needs: middle linebacker. Giving up picks in the second and third rounds left them watching as more than a half-dozen middle linebackers were drafted. The Vikings gave up the opportunity to fill that job on a long-term basis by jumping to draft a receiver who generated plenty of divergent viewpoints during the pre-draft evaluation process.

Runner-up: The Detroit Lions used the No. 5 overall pick on a pass-rusher who had 4.5 sacks in his college career. BYU defensive end Ezekiel Ansah has all the physical tools to be a dominant pass-rusher, but his learning curve is steep and his potential for immediate impact is at least worth questioning.

MOST SURPRISING MOVE

[+] Enlarge
Kyle Long
Reid Compton/USA TODAY SportsThe Bears were willing to overlook offensive lineman Kyle Long's inexperience because of his extraordinary athleticism for a man his size.
You would have been hard-pressed to find a mock draft that projected Oregon guard Kyle Long as a first-round pick. In a recent seven-round mock, Scouts Inc. suggested he would go No. 47 overall. And even that was based on Long's overwhelmingly positive athletic attributes rather than evaluation of his limited play at Oregon.

The Bears produced arguably the surprise of the draft by selecting Long at No. 20 overall, a time when even the most polished guards are rarely taken historically. But the Bears were blown away by Long's agility for his 6-foot-6 frame and were willing to overlook a one-season, four-start career at the Division I level.

There is no doubt the Bears needed help on their offensive line, but you could have a spirited philosophical argument over the draft value of a raw, inexperienced guard. Even if the Bears are right about Long -- that his athleticism will make him a long-term starter -- it's fair to question whether they needed to take him in the first round. Did another team covet the draft's third-best guard enough to take him between picks 21 and 50, where the Bears were situated in the second round? One explanation: The Bears, with only five total picks in the draft at that point, thought it would be too difficult to trade up in the second round assuming Long got out of the first. I'm not going to say it was the wrong choice, but it sure was surprising.

FILE IT AWAY

The Lions bolstered their pass defense at the expense of some other positions of need. You can't have it all, and the Lions made some clear decisions.

On the plus side, they used three of their first four choices on Ansah, cornerback Darius Slay and defensive end Devin Taylor. Ansah (6-foot-5 with 35 1/8-inch arms) and Taylor (6-7 with 36-inch arms) will provide incredible length and a new look to the Lions' outside pass rush. Slay, meanwhile, has elite speed (4.36 seconds in the 40-yard dash).

That focus left the Lions less able to surround quarterback Matthew Stafford with additional weapons and protection. The Lions didn't draft an offensive tackle after the departure of both 2012 starters, and they didn't get around to selecting a receiver until grabbing Virginia Tech's Corey Fuller with the third pick of the sixth round (No. 171 overall).

(The Lions did draft guard Larry Warford in the third round.)

From a roster-balance perspective, it made sense for the Lions to focus on pass defense -- long a weakness -- rather than their passing offense. But the Lions still finished the draft with less depth at receiver and offensive tackle than they would have liked. Life is a trade-off, after all.
We're Black and Blue All Over:

Wednesday was a busy day for the Green Bay Packers, and not just because they made linebacker Clay Matthews one of the most highly-paid defensive players in the NFL. They also took the rare step of hosting a restricted free agent, Pittsburgh Steelers nose tackle Steve McLendon, on a visit at Lambeau Field.

(A number of media outlets reported the news, including the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.)

The deadline for signing restricted free agents to an offer sheet is Friday, and the Steelers put McLendon in a favorable position to depart. First, they issued him a low tender that would not require any draft-choice compensation for another team to sign. Also, as AFC North colleague Jamison Hensley notes, the Steelers are down to $800,000 in salary-cap space and would have to make some changes to match any offer the Packers might make.

McLendon has started only one game in his three-year career but apparently was set to take over for veteran Casey Hampton this season. The Packers have a well-known desire and need to beef up their defensive line this offseason. We'll let you know if the Packers ultimately make him an offer.

Continuing around the NFC North:
  • Matthews on the deal, via Weston Hodkiewicz of the Green Bay Press-Gazette: "I think it was important. Giving up so many draft picks right around the Brett Favre trade, and then drafting an (unproven) guy in college and picking him up and having belief and then coming in here and doing my part, and that's helping this team win, be a consummate professional and ultimately being comfortable in the city and everything this organization has to offer."
  • Matthews said he hopes "the next order of business" is signing quarterback Aaron Rodgers to a contract extension, notes Jason Wilde of ESPNMilwaukee.com.
  • The Chicago Bears are looking at other ways to use Devin Hester on special teams, including kick coverage, according to Jeff Dickerson of ESPNChicago.com.
  • Bears general manager Phil Emery has a clear draft plan, writes Dan Pompei of the Chicago Tribune.
  • Bears defensive end Shea McClellin has added 5 to 7 pounds onto his frame, writes Adam L. Jahns of the Chicago Sun-Times.
  • The Detroit Lions' ideal position for Riley Reiff is right guard, according to Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press.
  • Chris McCosky of the Detroit News speaks with new Lions running backs coach Curtis Modkins.
  • Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford on his drop in touchdown passes last season, via Anwar S. Richardson of Mlive.com: "Touchdowns, everybody talks about them, and it's a big stat and all that, but as a team, I want to score. I don't care how we get in the end zone. I don't care if I run it in. I want us to score. Obviously, I'd like to throw touchdowns if that means the only way we're going to get to be able to do it. But if teams try to take away the pass from us, we're going to try to run it in."
  • The Minnesota Vikings have purchased a building next to their Winter Park practice facility, an indication they plan to expand their operations in the near future, according to Sid Hartman of the Star Tribune.
  • Tom Pelissero of 1500ESPN.com on the Vikings' cornerback situation: "Drafting a cornerback such as Florida State's Xavier Rhodes, Washington's Desmond Trufant or Houston's D.J. Hayden late in the first round is a possibility, since it's debatable the Vikings even have two-starting caliber players on the roster."
  • Former Vikings cornerback Antoine Winfield had some "angst" about where to sign for 2013, according to Seattle Seahawks general manager John Schneider, via Tim Booth of the Associated Press.
We're Black and Blue All Over:

Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler began on-field work Tuesday with his fourth offensive coordinator in five years. The timing of this transition, however, is a bit more dramatic than the rest.

As Michael C. Wright of ESPNChicago.com points out, Cutler is entering the final year of his contract and seems "perfectly comfortable with the perception that 2013 is a make-or-break season for him." Cutler: "That's not up to me to decide. I'm not worried about those things. Every year, you put pressure on yourself. Every team in the NFL is preparing to win the Super Bowl. We're doing the same thing."

Actually, Cutler will play a role in how the issue will be decided, and the extent to which the Bears push to re-sign him. Cutler said as much earlier in the interview, noting: "You've got to win games to earn those contracts."

The Bears are in a pretty decent position from an organizational perspective. They have a quarterback that they hope and believe will be their long-term starter, but they haven't made a financial commitment that will impact their judgment. The most significant deciding factor, as it should be, is Cutler's own performance:

Continuing around the NFC North:
Monday brought the opening of two more NFC North offseason programs, which in the context of mid-April is big news in these parts.

The Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers have opened their doors for voluntary workouts, joining the Chicago Bears, who began April 2 under separate rules available to teams with new head coaches. For the next two weeks, according to the NFL's collective bargaining agreement, Lions and Packers players are limited to strength and conditioning work as well as rehabilitation during program hours. There can be no official on-field work during what is known as "Phase One" of the program.

All players must have signed contracts to participate, which means restricted free agents must sign either their tender offers or a waiver to ensure eligibility. The Minnesota Vikings are scheduled to open for business next Monday.

At this point, there is no indication that any of the big contract questions remaining in this division -- quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford, along with Packers linebacker Clay Matthews -- will impact participation. All three are signed for 2013 and none have indicated an intention to stay away while awaiting new deals. Rodgers has a $500,000 workout bonus coming for participating in a certain percentage of offseason workouts, while Matthews would receive $40,000. Stafford does not have one based on the information I've seen, but he has been living in Detroit most of the winter and has made regular appearances at the Lions' facility.
We're Black and Blue All Over:

We discussed the possibility of the Minnesota Vikings drafting Notre Dame linebacker Manti Te'o as recently as last Friday, and over the weekend, Sports Illustrated's Peter King added a more grist to the mill. According to King, Te'o had dinner the night before the Notre Dame pro day last month with Vikings general manager Rick Spielman.

The Vikings need a new middle linebacker, and at the very least we can say they have thoroughly investigated Te'o. In addition to the private dinner, they spoke to him at the NFL scouting combine and hosted him on a visit at their practice facility.

The Vikings have a deep history with Notre Dame players under Spielman, who has drafted four of them -- center John Sullivan, tight end Kyle Rudolph, safety Harrison Smith and safety Robert Blanton -- while also signing free-agent tight end John Carlson last year. Te'o is considered by many media analysts to be a late first-round pick, and the Vikings have picks at No. 23 and No. 25.

We must always be on the lookout for smokescreens this time of year, but it's hard to believe that even "Crazy Rick" Spielman would go to such lengths to feign interest in a player.

Continuing around the NFC North:
We're Black and Blue All Over:

BRISTOL, Conn. -- I'm starting the trek back to NFC North blog headquarters Thursday morning and will be back to full blogging speed by the afternoon. In the meantime, let's pass along some interesting information made public Wednesday by the NFL Players Association.

The NFLPA took the rare step of releasing salary cap totals for each team, presumably to demonstrate how much money has yet to be spent during free agency. There are no egregious offenders in the NFC North, at least not without good reason, so let's take a quick look at the NFLPA's numbers.

Chicago Bears: $3.95 million in available space

Detroit Lions: $6.8 million

Green Bay Packers: $17.8 million

Minnesota Vikings: $4.4 million

These totals line up with other media reports as well as my own resources. Keep in mind it takes anywhere from $2 million-$5 million to sign a draft class, depending on its size and the position of each pick. The Bears, Lions and Vikings are all below the average availability of $9.6 million per team. The Packers' relatively high total is available in part because they are working to sign quarterback Aaron Rodgers and linebacker Clay Matthews to long-term extensions.

Continuing around the NFC North:
  • The Lions signed veteran defensive tackle C.J. Mosley to a two-year contract, notes Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press. Interestingly, Mosley spoke and apologized to quarterback Matthew Stafford, whose shoulder he injured while playing for the Cleveland Browns in 2009. Mosley: "We shook hands and dapped up. We’re cool. I apologized. I apologized to him and the city of Detroit. He ain’t got to worry about that at all [anymore].”
  • The Lions still have more work to do in building their defensive line, writes Chris McCosky of the Detroit News.
  • Free agent place-kicker David Akers left a visit with the Lions without signing a contract, notes Justin Rogers of Mlive.com.
  • The Packers have the lowest amount of "dead money" on their salary cap ledgers, according to Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, a testament to general manager Ted Thompson's prudent decision-making. Dead money is created by players who leave the team, via release or trade, and cause an acceleration of remaining salary cap commitments.
  • If Matthews receives a contract that averages more than $13 million per season, he'll be the highest-paid player at his position, notes Jason Wilde of ESPNMilwaukee.com.
  • Matthews might be closer to an agreement at the moment than Rodgers, according to the Green Bay Press-Gazette.
  • The Vikings are working to build a British fan base, writes Ben Goessling of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. The team has a Sept. 29 game scheduled in London.
  • With some luck, the Bears could find a guard at the No. 20 overall pick in the draft. Mark Potash of the Chicago Sun-Times explains.
  • The Bears are in the market for defensive tackles, according to Michael C. Wright of ESPNChicago.com.
Last week, the Detroit Lions executed a relatively minor restructuring of receiver Calvin Johnson's contract, freeing about $3.4 million of salary-cap space for 2013. Simply put, restructures push the created space into future years. This particular change won't have a major impact, but it's a bit alarming that the Lions have already started this process just a year after signing Johnson to his record-breaking seven-year contract extension.

With that in mind, let's look at Johnson's future salary-cap numbers. His original cap numbers, before the restructure, are in parenthesis:

2013: $8.773 million ($12.2 million)
2014:
$13.058 million ($12.2 million)
2015:
$20.558 million ($19.7 million)
2016:
$24.088 million ($23.2 million)
2017:
$21.357 million ($20.5 million)
2018:
$17 million
2019: $18.250 million

(The final two years did not change because signing bonuses can only be pro-rated over a maximum of five years.)

Looking ahead, you wonder what might happen in 2015, when Johnson's cap number spikes above $20 million. There is a vague sentiment around the NFL that television money will have raised the salary cap by then, but that projection is not a certainty. By that time, it's possible the Lions will be juggling cap numbers of monster extensions for quarterback Matthew Stafford and defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh as well.
We're Black and Blue All Over:

PHOENIX -- It's rare when an NFL player re-signs with a team that cut him for financial reasons. Those business issues, as well as hurt feelings, don't usually dissipate quickly enough to foster a re-connection.

That's why most of us aren't expecting the Minnesota Vikings to re-sign cornerback Antoine Winfield, whom the team released last week rather than pay him a $7.25 million base salary. But as Tom Pelissero of 1500ESPN.com points out, Vikings coach Leslie Frazier is hoping Winfield proves the exception to that unwritten rule.

In town for the NFL owners meeting, Frazier told Pelissero that he has spoken to Winfield abut the situation and added: "I'm hoping that we can figure out a way to get him back here. So, I'm hoping that it's not goodbye yet."

The market has fallen for free agent cornerbacks in recent days and many are settling for one-year contracts. Winfield reportedly has received several calls of interest but he will be 36 when the season begins. We'll see where it goes.

Continuing around the NFC North as the meeting officially opens:
I try not to saturate you with contract details at this or any other time of year, figuring most of you don't care how much a player makes unless it impacts his future and/or the makeup of the team. This week's contract renegotiation between the Detroit Lions and defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh is one such example.

Suh
The bottom line, before we get to the specifics: The Lions likely will find themselves at a crossroads with Suh next year at this time.

As best as I can tell, they will have two choices. They could be at the long-term negotiating table, as they are now with quarterback Matthew Stafford and were last year with receiver Calvin Johnson, to lower an astronomical 2014 salary cap number. Or they could be preparing for Suh's final season with the team.

Here are the details: This week, the Lions reduced Suh's 2013 salary-cap figure from $18.2 million to $10.942 million. They did it by converting most of his base salary to a signing bonus and then pro-rating it over the 2013, '14 and '15 seasons. His 2013 compensation won't change measurably, but the maneuver created about $7.5 million in 2013 cap space for the team.

As we all know, such moves provide only temporary relief. Suh is now projected to carry a $21.412 million cap figure for 2014. That's higher than the number the Lions are currently trying to reduce for Stafford ($20.8 million) through a long-term deal.

Suh's contract technically runs through the 2015 season, but that year is voidable -- meaning he almost certainly would be eligible for free agency after the 2014 season. If the Lions want him to keep him long-term, next offseason is the time to make that happen.

Otherwise, if Suh plays out the 2014 season under his current contract, the NFL's franchise tag rules would dramatically limit the Lions' ability to retain him for 2015 and beyond. NFL rules would assign Suh a franchise tag figure of $25.7 million, far too high for any player and especially a defensive tackle. It would render the tag useless for the Lions and allow Suh to hit the free agent market, much like Buffalo Bills defensive end Mario Williams did last winter.

If the Lions decide they don't want Suh long-term, they probably would have to live with his $21.412 million cap number in 2014. Releasing him before the season would still cost the Lions about $18 million against the 2014 cap, a minimal $3 million savings.

Much could change between now and then, but assuming the Lions still consider Suh a fundamental building block in the winter of 2014, he likely will be rewarded handsomely then as a matter of necessity.

(Contract details courtesy ESPN Stats & Information.)
The most obvious free-agent connection in recent memory -- the Detroit Lions and running back Reggie Bush -- came together as quickly as expected Wednesday. Bush was on a flight to Detroit shortly after the market opened Tuesday, visited the team's facility Wednesday morning and agreed to terms shortly after noon ET.

The pending deal has enthused Lions fans and fantasy owners alike, all of whom envision the impact of a speedy tailback in an offense built around receiver Calvin Johnson and anchored by quarterback Matthew Stafford. All you have to do is go back to the 2011 season to see the opportunity the Lions and Bush offer each other.

[+] Enlarge
Reggie Bush
David Kohl/US PresswireThe Lions are banking on running back Reggie Bush to make their running game more explosive.
That season, Lions tailback Jahvid Best was on pace for about 1,800 all-purpose yards -- including a 1,000-yard rushing season and more than 70 receptions -- when he was sidelined in the sixth game by a concussion that seems to have ended his career. Bush is the first suitable replacement the Lions have employed since Best's concussion.

Bush broke into the NFL as a quasi-receiver, hauling in 213 passes in his first three seasons with the New Orleans Saints. Then he transitioned into a more traditional role over the past two seasons with the Miami Dolphins, rushing for 2,072 yards in 31 games over that span.

I would imagine the Lions will give Bush an ample opportunity to do both, as they did with Best before his final concussion. And as we discussed last month, Bush will either capitalize dramatically on Johnson's presence or force fundamental changes by defenses.

With plodding tailback Mikel Leshoure as the Lions' lead runner in 2012, the team ranked last in the NFL with four runs of at least 20 yards. (Bush had six himself for the Dolphins.) Johnson's presence, along with a rushing attack that had no explosiveness, left the Lions to run more plays (855 of a possible 1,160) against defenses with six or fewer defenders in the box than any other NFL team. In addition, the Lions faced -- by far -- the fewest number of "stacked" boxes: eight or more defenders within 2 yards of the tackle and 5 yards deep. That happened on only 1.6 percent of their plays (19 of 1,160).

Finally, the Lions saw a "standard" look -- seven defenders in the box -- on 286 plays, the third-fewest in the league. (Those figures courtesy of ESPN Stats & Information.)

In theory, six-man boxes offer a player with Bush's explosiveness a tremendous opportunity to get into space and make plays.

"It's a running back's dream," Bush said a few minutes ago during his introductory news conference. "The first thing we talked about, we're watching film, seeing those safeties deep ... it's a running back's dream. We have to be able to run the ball in that situation. That's part of the reason I wanted to come here and be part of a balanced attack and take the pressure off Calvin Johnson and Matthew Stafford."

With that said, I would still expect Leshoure to get a fair number of carries in the Lions' 2013 offense. Coach Jim Schwartz said last month that the team still has "high hopes for him, and we expect him to make a big jump." But Bush will get every opportunity to exploit the gaps that Leshoure could not last season.

There was a time when the Lions envisioned a "Reggie Bush role" for Jahvid Best. Now, they have the original under contract and in uniform. There is plenty of work left to do on the Lions' 2013 roster, especially on defense, but there is no doubt they got better today.
Another free-agent signing has most of you beating down my virtual door and demanding to know how a team that is tight against the salary cap can afford to make two signings -- first cornerback Chris Houston and now defensive tackle Jason Jones -- while also hosting two other premium free agents on visits.

I can finally bring you a partial answer there. Although there has been little progress in extending the contract of quarterback Matthew Stafford ($20.8 million cap figure), the Lions have gained space by restructuring the contract of defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, according to Mike O'Hara of the Lions' web site. Suh was counting $18.2 million against the 2013 cap, and the guess is the he converted most of his $11.55 million base salary to a signing bonus that could be pro-rated over the duration of his deal.

I don't know if that's enough to cover Jones, running back Reggie Bush and safety Glover Quin, should the latter two agree to contracts as well. But it's worth noting the Lions don't need to create the cap space until the deals are officially signed and submitted to the league.

The arrangement almost certainly will put the Lions and Suh into a position similar to Stafford now and receiver Calvin Johnson last season: With a sky-high cap figure that almost certainly will require a long-term contract extension to lower. We'll deal with that next year at this time.

Meanwhile, Jones was the lowest-profile player of the free agent trio visiting the Lions on Wednesday. He has played both defensive end and defensive tackle in his career with the Tennessee Titans and Seattle Seahawks, and the Lions could have two openings at defensive end. With that said, however, NFC West colleague Mike Sando notes that Jones is at his best as an interior pass rusher. As Danny O'Neil of the Seattle Times wrote, Jones was placed on injured reserve last season after struggling with after-effects of knee surgery. A physical was part of his visit Wednesday.

I know you all want to know what will happen with Bush and Quin. I'll let you know as soon as I hear, probably first on Twitter (@espn_nfcnblog).
On the eve of free agency, the Detroit Lions are being linked relatively credibly to a number of significant free agents. ESPN's Adam Schefter reported they are one of two front-runners for safety Dashon Goldson, NFL.com reports "strong buzz" between the Lions and safety Glover Quin and everyone thinks the Lions are in on running back Reggie Bush.

Many of you are asking via Twitter how the Lions could afford more than one of those players from a salary cap perspective, especially if they eat up a few million dollars' worth of cap space to extend restricted free agent tender offers. Frankly, I don't know the answer to that yet.

Perhaps they have restructured the contracts of some other players. Perhaps quarterback Matthew Stafford is closer to a contract extension than he appears. Maybe the Lions will do something with the contract of defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, which is projected to count $18.2 million against their cap.

Free agency opens Tuesday at 4 p.m. ET, and I'll of course be blogging all day and perhaps all night as well on NFC North events. For now, let's all get some sleep.
BACK TO TOP

SPONSORED HEADLINES