NFC North: Nate Burleson

NFC North weekend mailbag

May, 5, 2012
May 5
8:00
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There's always something these days. The week after the draft is typically deep-breath time for the NFL, but the events of this week had us running hither and thither on the NFC North blog. Through it all, I saw everything you've submitted via the mailbag, Twitter and Facebook and tried to respond when possible. Another attempt forthcoming:

Brian of Minneapolis has watched the NFL issue severe punishments following its investigation into the New Orleans Saints' bounty program and can't reconcile them with relatively light in-game punishment in issues of player safety: My frustration as a fan is seeing the referees on game day powerless to enforce penalties beyond the standard 15-yard penalty for repeat offenders. Fines may come later, but I don't see the behavior deterred on game day. What if the NFL adopted a rule mandating an ejection for two unnecessary roughness or unsportsmanlike conduct penalties in a game?

Kevin Seifert: As Brian pointed out later in his note, there is sports precedent for progressive in-game penalties, including the "persistent infringement" aspect of soccer. (Yes, I'm sure there are many of you who would protest using "football" and "soccer" in the same sentence, but that's for another day.)

Normally I would say there would be little chance for such a dramatic change to the NFL's in-game rules. Referees have the authority to eject a player on a first offense if it is egregious enough, but what Brian is referring to is deterring standard roughness or unsportsmanlike infractions by elevating the punishments within a game.

Given how focused NFL commissioner Roger Goodell appears to be on the player-safety issue, however, I couldn't rule out this type of change in coming years. In essence, if this kind of rule were enacted, a player could be ejected after hitting a player out of bounds and then roughing the punter.

Many of us would cry foul at another attempt to reduce the violence of an inherently violent game, but we've already seen Goodell act repeatedly with no concern for that argument. Who knows what's next?


Serge of Windsor saw our post on the Detroit Lions' offense and writes: I think [rookie receiver] Ryan Broyles will have a significant impact on the Lions' offensive explosive capability. The Lions already have a couple deep threats in Calvin Johnson and Titus Young … however, their impact was negated through double teams in deep cover 2 schemes. What has been missing -- sorry, while Nate Burleson is a class act and a great influence in the locker room, he has been very average on the field -- and what the Lions see in Broyles, is a receiver that is able to punish a defense for playing such schemes by finding windows underneath and gaining yards after the catch. In theory, this will eventually force defenses out of such schemes and open up deep opportunities for Calvin Johnson and Titus Young to make explosive plays downfield.

Kevin Seifert: Interesting theory, Serge, especially if Broyles turns out to be the kind of open-field runner that draft evaluators believe he is. He does appear to have all the skills necessary to be a front-line slot receiver.

But I'm not convinced defenses will deprioritize deep coverage, especially against Johnson, if the Lions have stronger weapons underneath. Johnson is going to draw maximum attention as often as defenses can arrange for it. I don't think a slot receiver, no matter how talented he is, can draw coverage away from Johnson.

What Broyles will do is make more explosive plays when he gets his hands on the ball in the open field than, say, tight ends Brandon Pettigrew or Tony Scheffler. The Lions would be a more explosive offense with Broyles, but that doesn't necessarily mean defenses will make it any easier for Johnson, and to a lesser extent Young, make deep downfield plays against them. I'm pretty sure I would take my chances against anyone other than Calvin Johnson.


Ben of Denver thought that Mike Daniels, the Green Bay Packers' fourth-round draft choice, deserved to be in this week's discussion about the team's desire to get more "juice" in its defensive front: I think he at least deserved to be mentioned in the article, as he was brought in to do and has just as much of an opportunity to bring exactly the same thing that [Anthony] Hargrove was signed for, inside pass rush. I am very excited about the injection of explosiveness, talent, and depth to our front seven.

Kevin Seifert: Fair point. Daniels had seven sacks as an inside pass-rusher at Iowa and has a naturally athletic frame. According to Scouts Inc., Daniels put on 50 pounds in college to play defensive tackle at 291 pounds. In its pre-draft report, Scouts Inc. gave Daniels its highest grade for quickness (hands/feet) and toughness/motor. Here is an excerpt:
"Step late getting to the quarterback at times but disruptive nonetheless and excels at moving quarterback off the spot. Quickly reacts to snap and flashes the ability to shoot gaps. Above-average hand fighter that flashes effective swim, rip and push-pull moves. Can shake offensive linemen with spin move. Gets hands up when sees quarterback start throwing motion. Flashes the ability to get under centers and drive them back but average overall power as a bull rusher. … Active hands make it difficult for blockers to lock onto frame. Flashes the ability to counter when offensive linemen get their hands inside his initially. First-step quickness is a notch below elite. Rarely gets beat to the point of attack and ability to explode upfield in addition to leverage helps mask lack of ideal size. Shows good foot speed working down the line and fighting off cut blocks."

The point of the post was that the Packers have taken a very focused approach to their offseason, seeking out players with the skills to be disruptive on the line of scrimmage. Daniels certainly fits that description and should have received a mention in the post.


Chuck of Guilin, China, writes: I have seen videos and read numerous slams on the Chicago Bears' OL. I thought they had two starters coming off 2011 injured reserve, no more Mike Martz and, most important, Mike Tice likes his group of young linemen. If Tice is what everyone says he is, why all the media flack?

Kevin Seifert: That's definitely the counter-argument to the media criticism the Bears have received. From the big picture, I see where the criticism has come from. The Bears have had to patch together their line in each of the past two seasons, rolling through various combinations and schemes until they found something that worked. In the process, some of their linemen -- like left tackle J'Marcus Webb -- looked pretty bad.

The Bears' decision not to add personnel means they have placed a lot of faith in Tice. In addition to his role as offensive coordinator, they want him to mold a functioning line group out of players who haven't always gotten the job done in the past two years. Success is usually a combination of player skill, good coaching and luck. The Bears have faith in some players whose skills have not always been obvious from the outside.


Facebook friend Jerry asks: Since the free agent and draftees by the Vikings all seem to be second-tier WR's, is there any chance the Vikings will add an impact player from free agency still? Say a Braylon Edwards, Terrell Owens, Plaxico Burress?

Kevin Seifert: While I agree the Vikings have some question marks at the receiver position, it should be pointed out that they've already taken a dip into the veteran free-agent market and come up with Jerome Simpson. I'm not sure they have any plans beyond that. For now, they'll go with Percy Harvin, Michael Jenkins, Simpson, their pair of pass-catching tight ends, and hope that perhaps Greg Childs or Jarius Wright develop into a contributor.
Ryan BroylesBrett Deering/Getty ImagesBy drafting Ryan Broyles Detroit stuck to their philosophy of targeting talent instead of need.
As they approached their second-round position Friday night, the Detroit Lions sure seemed to be sitting pretty. A team with a shortage of cornerbacks was looking at a nice group of second-tier defensive backs whose time on the market appeared up. In addition, the draft's top center was still available if the Lions were inclined to secure a future replacement for starter Dominic Raiola.

With their No. 54 overall pick, the Lions passed on Wisconsin center Peter Konz, who ultimately went one slot later to the Atlanta Falcons.

They turned away a trio of cornerbacks: Vanderbilt's Casey Hayward, Montana's Trumaine Johnson and Central Florida's Josh Robinson. Hayward went at No. 62 to the Green Bay Packers, Johnson at No. 65 to the St. Louis Rams and Robinson at No. 66 to the Minnesota Vikings.

The Lions? Naturally, they went for a 24-year-old slot receiver who tore his anterior cruciate ligament last November. Oklahoma's Ryan Broyles will join a seemingly crowded position group that also includes Calvin Johnson, Nate Burleson and 2011 second-round pick Titus Young.

I got a number of immediate reactions along these lines of this one from @breynolds0324: "Sadly, best case he is 4th receiver. That secondary made [Matt] Flynn a multimillionaire. Feel like we are a secondary away from SB."

I understand where you're coming from, and perhaps some of you were assuaged when the Lions drafted Louisiana-Lafayette cornerback Dwight Bentley in the third round. But I feel like many of you allowed your immediate emotions to overtake rational thought, and more importantly, what should be a clear understanding of how the Lions operate under general manager Martin Mayhew and coach Jim Schwartz.

You can object to the relative lack of attention the Lions have paid their secondary during this rebuilding process. Feel free to dispute their assessment of the talent they've passed over. But by now, like it or not, you should have come to expect that they will follow their board in as much of a vacuum as any team in the NFL. And I hope you also realize that approach has left the Lions short in the secondary but is probably the single-biggest factor in their return to contention.

"You don't solve needs by drafting poor players," Lions coach Jim Schwartz told reporters in Detroit. "… There's a discipline that goes into it. You have to be able to stick with that philosophy. The philosophy is: 'Talent rules the board.' … If you chase need, you're chasing a moving target. What looks like a need one day might not be a need another day. If you have the discipline to say, 'Hey look, let's get good football players that fit a philosophy that we have a plan for, that continue to be the highest rated guys on your board,' then you're going to be successful over the long run.

"Even in this organization in the past, I think everybody knows some examples where this organization reached for certain players because of needs. I don't see how that solves your need. When it's all said and done, the need is still there."

It would be reasonable to question whether, say, Hayward would have been a reach at No. 54 when the Packers selected him just a few spots later. But the more relevant question is whether the Lions would have left a more talented player on the board. And in the Lions' evaluation, they would have. That made their decision easy Friday night at No. 54.

Broyles is one of the most productive receivers in the history of college football, having caught an NCAA-record 349 passes in his career. Just five months after surgery to repair his ACL, he ran the 40-yard dash in 4.57 seconds. Mayhew, whose success in recent drafts grants him some leeway in making such judgments, told reporters: "If the guy were healthy now he'd have been gone way before our pick."

And while they are in fact stacked at the front end of their depth chart, the Lions in reality were one injury away from not being able to use offensive coordinator Scott Linehan's three-receiver set. Burleson, meanwhile, will turn 32 this summer. In other words, the Lions could be a year or two away from having an obvious need at receiver. As we discussed Thursday, the key to orderly transitions is acquiring the replacement before he is needed.

Look, the Lions don't need me to be an apologist for a decision -- and thus far, an entire draft -- that might not have much impact on their 2012 team. You have a right to dispute it. But you shouldn't be surprised, and the Lions' success to this point earns them at least a partial benefit of the doubt from me.
The Detroit Lions' decision to use a second-round draft pick on Oklahoma receiver Ryan Broyles is one we probably shouldn't examine too thoroughly until we've had a chance to hear from all concerned parties.

Broyles
Broyles
The fact is that Broyles tore an anterior cruciate ligament five months ago and hasn't fully recovered. He didn't work out at the NFL scouting combine but did get on the field for his pro day.

The Lions are relatively deep at receiver with Calvin Johnson, Nate Burleson and Titus Young. Broyles was a highly touted prospect before the injury, and so the success of this pick would seem to rest with his recovery and what plans the Lions have for him among their crowded receiving corps.

Regardless, you wonder how much either of the Lions' top two picks -- offensive lineman Riley Reiff and Broyles -- will contribute in 2012. That's not necessarily a bad thing. It could be seen from a position of strength, but it also means the Lions still haven't addressed their cornerback or safety positions. More a bit later this evening.
I typically put my best virtual stiff arm on all attempts to project the division finish until at least after the draft, if not once after training camp. It's a fun debate whenever we have it, but I figure we should at least have a strong sense of the makeup of each roster before diving in.

Burleson
Burleson
So consider this post a preview to that inevitable discussion, spurred by an interesting analogy from Detroit Lions receiver Nate Burleson during an appearance this week on the NFL Network. (Video here.)

Burleson was asked if the Lions are ready to win the division. His full response:
"I think so. I don't want to sit here and tell you what we're going to do. Obviously I'm confident in the team. We lost a couple close games to Green Bay, split with Chicago, and had a good showing against Minnesota last year.

"But from an outside perspective, I think everybody looks at it like this: Green Bay is driving the car. Up front in the passenger seat is Chicago. In the back, you've got the Vikings and you've got the Lions. We're sitting there begging them, asking them, 'Are we there yet, are we there yet?'

"It's time for us to get out of the car and see who wants to drive. The division is up for anybody who wants it. We've got a tough division, and I like it."

Why are the Bears in the front seat and why are the Lions still in the restless kids' area? Perhaps Burleson was recognizing -- fairly, I think -- that the Bears had a step on the Lions last season until quarterback Jay Cutler's fractured thumb changed the outlook. Would the Lions have been a playoff team if Cutler stayed healthy? Fair question.

The Packers, who won the Super Bowl in 2010 and were 15-1 last season, will get the benefit of the doubt in most national discussions. But if the point of Burleson's response was to suggest this is a three-team race (sorry, Vikings), then I'm on board. The Lions did enough last season to be rightfully included in the discussion with the Packers and Bears. Let's see if anyone's draft changes the parameters of this debate.
The Detroit Lions have accomplished the difficult, complicated and expensive task of retaining the core of the team that lifted them to their first playoff appearance in a decade. The final domino to fall was middle linebacker Stephen Tulloch, who agreed to a five-year contract hours before his potential replacement was scheduled to visit the team's practice facility.

Tulloch's deal means that 21 of the Lions' 22 offensive and defensive starters from last season are now under contract. The exception is cornerback Eric Wright, whom the Lions wisely chose not to pursue once the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offered him a pricey five-year contract worth $37.5 million.

Otherwise, however, the Lions systematically took care of business over the past month, navigating a tight salary cap situation by using most every tool at their disposal. At times, it required premium cash outlays that not every NFL team would commit to.

In summary, the Lions:
  • Restructured the contracts of quarterback Matthew Stafford, receiver Nate Burleson and defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, freeing up some $16 million in cap space.
  • Used the franchise tag to prevent the departure of defensive end Cliff Avril, a move that in essence guarantees Avril a one-year deal worth $10.6 million.
  • Issued a second-round tender to linebacker DeAndre Levy, essentially giving him a one-year deal worth $1.927 million.
  • Took a $1.6 million cap credit as their share of an NFL discipline that took cap space away from the Washington Redskins and Dallas Cowboys.
  • Freed up about $9 million more in cap space by extending the contract of receiver Calvin Johnson. For the moment, at least, Johnson is the NFL's highest-paid player with an eight-year deal worth a total of $132 million, of which $60 million is guaranteed.
  • Re-signed left tackle Jeff Backus to a two-year deal worth $10 million.

Although it took the longest, Tulloch's agreement was no less important than any of those we just ran through. Tulloch made a substantive impact on the Lions' defense as both a leader and a sure tackler. He proved exceptionally durable, playing on all but 19 of their defensive snaps in 2011, and provided a true fixture that allowed Levy to play a more a natural role on the outside.

Negotiations stalled to the point where the Lions scheduled free agent David Hawthorne for a visit. (Funny how the timing often works.) In the end, however, the Lions have managed to keep together their best team in a generation, and now they can look for ways to supplement it through secondary free agency and the draft.
(The Detroit Lions are) Black and Blue All Over:

As I catch up on a wild morning here in the NFC North, many of you Detroit Lions fans are already wringing your hands at the departure of cornerback Eric Wright. Early Wednesday morning, Wright agreed to a five-year contract with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Other financial terms were not available, but as we've discussed a number of times, the Lions are tight against the salary cap and would have had to make significant moves to create the space to engage in any kind of bidding war. But the question you have to ask yourself is whether Wright would have been worth it.

The Lions' secondary crashed over the final six games of the regular season and in their wild-card playoff loss to the New Orleans Saints. Part of the problem was the knee sprains of cornerback Chris Houston and safety Louis Delmas, but the Lions would have been justified in taking a highly critical eye toward Wright's performance.

Our friends at Pro Football Focus (PFF) ranked every full-time NFL cornerback last season based on video study. Wright finished at No. 105, in large part because a league-high 75 passes were completed against him. His inconsistent tackling allowed receivers he covered to accumulate 319 yards after the catch, the eighth-highest total in the league, according to PFF.

To be clear, Wright proved more competent than many of the stiffs the Lions have rolled through their lineup in recent years. He intercepted four passes and had 10 pass breakups, according to PFF's ratings. But was he worth additional salary-cap strife for a team whose secondary finished the 2011 season in shambles?

The Lions didn't think so, and to me that's a defensible position. At this delicate stage in their development, the Lions can't afford a single contractual mistake. A reasonable person could argue they avoided one in Wright's case.

Let's take a Lions-only stroll through local coverage while we have a moment:
In a matter of a few hours, it appears the Detroit Lions have cut enough salary cap space -- or, more accurately, pushed enough of it to future years -- that they can avoid cutting any any players in order to comply with the NFL's salary cap limit by Tuesday's deadline. Let's quickly catch up on what they've done and try to get a handle on what it means.

The Lions opened the day more than $11 million above the cap, but multiple reports, including this one from the Detroit Free Press and another from the Lions' web site, have confirmed the team restructured the contracts of quarterback Matthew Stafford and receiver Nate Burleson. The team reduced Stafford's cap number by more than $7 million and Burleson's by $2.175 million.

Meanwhile, the agent for defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh told Fox Sports Detroit that Suh has also agreed to a restructure, and Suh's new cap number will low enough to account for more than $11 million in total cap savings when combined with the restructures of Stafford and Burleson.

We don't yet know how much under the cap the Lions will enter the NFL's new league year with Tuesday, but a rough estimate would put them about $5 million under at this point. A few other points to keep in mind:
  1. The Lions will need a certain portion of that surplus to sign their draft picks.
  2. They'll need enough room to re-sign linebacker Stephen Tulloch, who appears set to test the free agent market.
  3. The Lions have yet to announce the restricted free agent tenders they presumably will give to linebacker DeAndre Levy and defensive tackle Sammie Hill. The minimum combined cap hit of those two tenders will be $3.8 million.
  4. Pushing $7 million in cap space into the final three years of Stafford's deal means he will be in a position similar to receiver Calvin Johnson next year at this time. If my math is right, Stafford's salary cap number will exceed $20 million for 2013. Johnson's cap number is about $22 million at the moment, and it will stay that way unless he and the Lions agree to a long-term extension.
  5. Stafford's restructure was absolutely necessary and shouldn't result in any change in the cash he will receive in 2012, but it should also work in Stafford's favor when those long-term negotiations begin. The higher Stafford's base salary, the higher is eventual franchise tag number would be. That eventually serves as a baseline for negotiations.
  6. The Lions have the option to borrow more cap space, about $1.5 million, from future years under the NFL's new collective bargaining agreement.
  7. This is important: While it's not ideal, pushing cap commitments ahead isn't necessarily an irresponsible financial approach. The NFL's new television contracts will kick in for the 2014 season, an event that is expected to elevate the league's total cap space considerably.
We're going to get some mileage out of the research I did, and had forwarded to me, for our 2011 All-NFC North team. The first installment is left over from the debate that ultimately led me to choose Green Bay Packers receiver Jordy Nelson over the Minnesota Vikings' Percy Harvin.

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Percy  Harvin
Icon SMIPercy Harvin can do plenty of things on the field, as long as the Vikings have him on the field.
I checked out their playing time as part of comparing their production. As it turned out, Nelson and Harvin were on the field for almost exactly the same amount of time. Nelson played 609 snaps and Harvin 605. (All numbers in this post exclude penalties, which means they vary slightly from the figures we've used during the season.) The percentages of their team's total snaps were close as well: 58.9 for Nelson and 58.4 for Harvin.

That makes sense for Nelson, who was part of the NFL's deepest receiving corps. But I have a hard time understanding how Harvin -- by far the Vikings' best receiver in 2011 and one of their few playmakers -- was on the sideline for more than 40 percent of a mostly punchless team's snaps.

Across the NFL, 54 receivers played a higher percentage of their team's snaps than Harvin did. That includes teammate Devin Aromashodu, who eventually stepped into the starting lineup after Bernard Berrian's departure and Michael Jenkins' injury. Aromashodu caught 26 passes while playing on 674 snaps, 69 more than Harvin. (Tight end Visanthe Shiancoe led Vikings pass-catchers by playing 76.1 percent of the team's snaps.)

I think we all assumed that Harvin would be the Vikings' No. 1 receiver, and it was immediately surprising when he played about half of the snaps in the Vikings' first two games. At the time, coach Leslie Frazier said: "We have certain packages where we want to feature him, and not necessarily overuse him, but use him to help our football team."

Many of us dropped the issue given Harvin's season-long productivity, but in the end the Vikings finished the season with the NFL's fifth-fewest passing yards while their best receiver was on the sideline for 41.6 percent of their plays. That's hard to defend.

On the other hand, it's possible the Vikings believed Harvin would be more effective with managed snaps. He did, after all, catch a career-high 87 passes while rushing for 345 yards out of the backfield. The Vikings also had him as their primary kickoff returner on 30 of the kickoffs they faced.

Frazier denied during the season that his playing-time plan for Harvin was related to his migraine history, but it's worth noting that Harvin had no reported issues this season. Did the limited contact contribute to that? Assuming Frazier was being truthful, the two events were coincidental.

Regardless, in the big picture Harvin is too young to be on a pitch count. He won't turn 24 until May. It's true that he was managing a rib injury late in the season, but that doesn't account for 431 plays on the sideline. There is every reason to believe that Harvin could and should play at least as much as the No. 1 or No. 2 receivers on other teams.

For context, here are the NFC North receivers who played a higher percentage of snaps than Harvin in 2011:
Consider that Jennings played more snaps in 12 1/2 games before suffering a knee injury than Harvin did in 16. In the end, Harvin had the best year of his career when playing limited snaps. The Vikings must spend part of this offseason deciding if that was the reason, or if they artificially capped his production by overcompensating on his playing time.

NFC North links: Packers' plans for Finley

January, 20, 2012
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Chicago Bears

The Bears interviewed current director of player personnel Tim Ruskell for their GM vacancy, reports ESPNChicago.com's Michael C. Wright.

Bob Bostad, who recently left the Wisconsin Badgers to become the Pitt Panthers' offensive coordinator, is in the mix to become the Bears' new offensive line coach, reports Wright.

Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune examines how the Bears' offensive line performed in 2011 and how it looks heading into next season.

Detroit Lions

GM Martin Mayhew is pleased with the contributions the team has gotten from 2010 free-agent additions Nate Burleson and Kyle Vanden Bosch. "[Burleson] has been great. He and Kyle both have been great leaders for us, great in the locker room."

Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press take a look at five early entry draft prospects who could be of interest to the Lions.

Green Bay Packers

According to Jermichael Finley's agent, Blake Baratz, the team would like to sign the tight end to long-term deal rather than use the franchise tag on him, reports Kareem Copeland of the Green Bay Press-Gazette.

The Buccaneers interviewed offensive coordinator Joe Philbin and quarterbacks coach Tom Clements separately in Dallas on Thursday for Tampa's head-coaching job.

Minnesota Vikings

The divided Minneapolis City Council suddenly finds itself at the center of the Vikings' stadium debate. The Pioneer Press' Frederick Melo writes that proponents of an Arden Hills stadium proposal are searching for a "Hail Mary."

The Star Tribune's Dan Wiederer has four things you need to know following the Vikings' coaching shake-up on Thursday.

Final Word: Lions at Saints

January, 6, 2012
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» Wild-Card Final Word: Bengals-Texans | Lions-Saints | Falcons-Giants | Steelers-Broncos

Three nuggets of knowledge about Saturday's Lions-Saints wild-card game:

Historic battle: I did my best this week to make our preview coverage about the actual game and its matchups, as opposed to just how unprecedented a victory Saturday night would be in recent Lions history. (Here's a link to our handy "Lions-Saints" tag.) But here goes: The Lions are one of two NFL teams never to have won a wild-card playoff game, tallying an 0-6 record since its advent, according to ESPN Stats & Information. They haven't won a playoff game of any sort since the 1991 season, and its been 54 years since they've won a playoff game on the road (a 31-27 victory at the San Francisco 49ers in the 1957 Western Conference playoffs). The Lions are 11-point underdogs against a Saints team that hasn't lost at home this season. It's no surprise that the Twitter hashtag #shocktheworld has emerged this week. For any number of reasons, there aren't many people counting on a Lions victory Saturday night.

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Brandon Pettigrew
Jeff Hanisch/US PresswireBrandon Pettigrew has just as many catches (27) as teammate Calvin Johnson over the Lions' past four games.
More than Megatron: Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams noted this week that "guys that are 6-5 end up being 5-5 when they get flipped over on their head," an obvious reference to Lions receiver Calvin Johnson. But no matter how much attention the Saints pay to Johnson, they'll no doubt be aware of the impressive across-the-board production the Lions got during their 3-1 finish to the regular season. Johnson caught 27 passes and four touchdowns over that span, but tight end Brandon Pettigrew also caught 27 passes, while receiver Nate Burleson had 22 and Titus Young 17. Young scored four touchdowns, Pettigrew two and Burleson one. The Lions aren't likely to win if Johnson gets shut out, but they have the capacity to compete even if he is limited, especially if quarterback Matthew Stafford can beat the Saints' blitz as we discussed earlier this week.

Impact player: As the quarterback, Stafford will have more opportunities to impact the outcome of the game than any other Lions player. But a close second will be any of the Lions' key pass-rushers up front. Whether it's Ndamukong Suh or Kyle Vanden Bosch or Cliff Avril, someone needs to make Saints quarterback Drew Brees uncomfortable in the pocket early and maintain the pressure for the duration. Otherwise, Brees will pick the Lions apart. In the teams' first meeting, the Lions put Brees under duress on only three of his 38 dropbacks. He completed 26 of his resulting 36 passes for 342 yards and three touchdowns. Suh, Vanden Bosch and Avril have each had dominant games at one point or another in their careers. At least one of them must produce another Saturday night.
The Detroit Lions this season have provided anecdotal evidence of what has long been asserted through statistical analysis: Penalty totals don't necessarily correlate with winning percentage.

The Lions ranked third in the NFL this season in accepted penalties (128) and second in the amount of yards lost (1,075). They drew national attention for committing three post-whistle personal fouls in their Week 13 game at the New Orleans Saints, but even after cleaning up that issue, they exceeded their season averages in three of their subsequent four games, as the chart shows.

Those numbers coincide with what Lions coach Jim Schwartz preached in the days after that Saints game: The timing and nature of the penalty is more important than the raw totals. Against the Saints, the Lions were penalized 11 times for 107 yards, but also had 113 yards in gains nullified by those penalties. Three offensive pass interference calls against receiver Nate Burleson, along with post-whistle mistakes by receiver Titus Young, tight end Brandon Pettigrew and kick returner Stefan Logan, caused a disproportionate amount of the damage.

"The one thing you don't want to do in a game like that is give away anything for free," Schwartz told New Orleans-area media. "In a playoff game you want to earn it. You want your opponent to have to earn it. That's one thing we need to do better Saturday than we did the last Sunday night game."

Given a choice, I'm sure Schwartz would prefer that his team lower the penalty average Saturday night. But as long as they avoid penalties that, as he said, give away yards for free, I'm guessing he can live with it.
Please trust me when I tell you I had some big plans for Detroit Lions coverage Tuesday as their first playoff game in 11 years approaches. But the rapid-fire release of news this morning, first the firing of Chicago Bears general manager Jerry Angelo and then the promotion of Rick Spielman to the Minnesota Vikings' newly-created role of general manager, has spread me a bit thin.

I've rescheduled some posts planned for later in the week, and moved a different topic to the front of the line. And in all honesty, it covers one of the most important points the Lions will have to address in their matchup with the New Orleans Saints.

Namely: The Saints' pressure defense and the impact it might or might not have against a Lions offense that didn't see the blitz often in the regular season.

Here are the facts:
  • Under defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, the Saints blitzed on 51.1 percent of opponents' dropbacks this season, the highest rate of any team in the NFL.
  • Opponents blitzed Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford at a lower rate than any NFL starter in 2011, about 24 percent of his dropbacks. But as the chart shows, Stafford's efficiency dipped noticeably on the occasions when he was pressured by five or more defenders.

As we've discussed before, any team blitzing Stafford must weigh the risk-reward of leaving receiver Calvin Johnson -- not to mention teammates Nate Burleson, Titus Young and Brandon Pettigrew -- in favorable coverage matchups. Even the Saints pulled back on their usual approach in the teams' Week 13 matchup at the Superdome, blitzing Stafford on 40.4 percent of his dropbacks.

On those plays, Stafford completed 10 of 17 passes for 167 yards. He was sacked twice and threw an interception. When the Saints sent four or fewer rushers, he completed 21 of 27 passes for 241 yards and a touchdown, good for a 116.2 passer rating.

(Hat tip to Matt Willis of ESPN Stats & Information for the legwork on those figures.)

The Saints were one of three teams this season to hold the Lions under 20 points in a 31-17 victory. Teams rarely use the same gameplan in season rematches, so you wonder if Williams will turn up the jets on Stafford and see if the Lions' young quarterback can respond under the pressure of a playoff environment.

If I'm the Lions, I would take that turn of events 10 times out of 10. Stafford played at a Pro Bowl level over the final month of the season, throwing 14 touchdown passes and two interceptions in the four games since losing to the Saints. Any good offense invites the blitz because it expects its quarterback to capitalize on the resulting coverage gaps.

Is it fair to ask that of Stafford, who at 23 will be making his first playoff start? I think so.

His performance against the blitz is a relatively small sample of his season. It wouldn't fall beyond the realm of possibility for a young quarterback to melt down against heavy pressure in what figures to be a raucous scene at the Superdome. But as we've discussed before, Stafford isn't a typical young quarterback and hasn't withered in a number of extreme situations earlier this season.

Many of you were upset that Stafford hasn't gained more national recognition for his achievements this season. Saturday night will provide him a national audience to demonstrate how precocious he really is.

NFC North Stock Watch

December, 27, 2011
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FALLING

1. Secondary play in Chicago and Minnesota: Between the two of them, the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings have maybe one or two defensive backs who should be considered 2012 starters heading into the offseason. Bears cornerback Charles Tillman qualifies, and perhaps Vikings cornerback Antoine Winfield will as well if he returns healthy from a fractured collarbone. Otherwise, the Bears and Vikings need a serious overhaul to their defensive backfields. Both teams tried season-long rotations at safety, neither of which led to any personnel conclusions, and cornerback play outside of Tillman has been atrocious for both teams. It will probably be a multiyear process for these franchises to rebuild these positions. With Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler in this division, they better hurry.

2. Christian Ponder, Minnesota Vikings quarterback: We all remember ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer's harsh criticism of Ponder shortly after the draft. In brief, Dilfer said Ponder looks the part of an NFL quarterback but quickly falls from his comfort zone and loses accuracy under pressure. Dilfer softened some of that analysis after Ponder's relatively strong debut, but we should note that Ponder has been one of the NFL's worst quarterbacks against extra pass-rushers this season. According to ESPN Stats & Information, he is completing about 39 percent of his passes when opponents send five or more pass-rushers. The only player with less success against the blitz? Denver Broncos quarterback/running back Tim Tebow. It's not necessarily a warning sign if a rookie doesn't perform well under pressure, but to this point Ponder's performance hasn't veered much from Dilfer's original analysis.

3. Marion Barber, Bears running back: Barber's mental errors in a loss earlier this month to the Broncos, and his inability to keep his troublesome calf healthy, would seem to spell the end of his short tenure with the Bears. Kahlil Bell's hard-charging 123-yard performance Sunday night offers the Bears a much younger option for the role of backing up starter Matt Forte. It was a nice run, as they say.

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Brandon Pettigrew
Scott Boehm/Getty ImagesBrandon Pettigrew has been a productive weapon for the Lions this season.
RISING

1. Home-field advantage: The Packers have a quirky history when it comes to playing at home in the playoffs. In the big picture, the state of Wisconsin has provided one of the best home-field advantages in professional sports. The Packers are 15-3 all-time at home in the playoffs, including games played in Milwaukee. But those three losses have come in their past five playoff games at home: In 2003 to the Atlanta Falcons, in 2004 to the Vikings and 2007 to the New York Giants. One of the two victories, meanwhile, came in overtime to the Seattle Seahawks. Recently, at least, opponents haven't been intimidated by playing at Lambeau Field.

2. Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit Lions tight end: A significant debate erupted in 2009 when the Lions used the No. 20 overall pick to draft Pettigrew, passing up offensive lineman Michael Oher and receiver Percy Harvin, among others. But the Lions insisted that a multi-faceted tight end was critical to their offense, and they have followed through by utilizing Pettigrew as much as any team in the NFL. The Lions have used him as an extension of their running game, and although he is averaging a modest 8.7 yards per reception, his total of 76 catches ranks third among tight ends. By all accounts, Pettigrew is an excellent blocker as well. The Lions have gotten by this far with Jeff Backus and Gosder Cherilus as their tackles, minimizing the need for Oher. And while Harvin would have been a nice addition, the Lions have found value by signing veteran Nate Burleson and using a second-round pick to draft Titus Young.

3. T.J. Lang, Green Bay Packers offensive lineman: When the season began, how many people would have chosen Lang as the Packers' most valuable offensive lineman? Not me. Lang had been an inconsistent starter and player who couldn't find a position and was behind a rookie on the depth chart when the season began. But Lang outplayed first-round pick Derek Sherrod in camp to win the left guard job and has provided a seamless transition from departed starter Daryn Colledge. And when the Packers needed someone to jump over to right tackle after injuries to Bryan Bulaga and Sherrod, Lang successfully made the move. On Sunday night, at least, he held his own against Bears pass-rushers Julius Peppers and Israel Idonije. Center Scott Wells might be the Packers' best offensive lineman this season, but not many left guards could jump out to right tackle as well as Lang appeared to do Sunday night.

Free Head Exam: Detroit Lions

December, 19, 2011
12/19/11
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After the Detroit Lions' 28-27 victory against the Oakland Raiders, here are three issues that merit further examination:
    Head ExamKevin SeifertFollowing their big win against the Raiders, the Lions take a seat in the examination room.
  1. I would imagine the atmosphere Saturday afternoon at Ford Field will rival the raucous night when Monday Night Football returned to Detroit in October. The stakes will be clear: A victory over the San Diego Chargers will give the Lions their first playoff appearance since 1999. (It would also give them their first 10-win season since 1995, when current quarterback Matthew Stafford was seven years old.) There are other scenarios for the Lions to clinch a playoff spot, but a win Sunday would be the cleanest, quickest and most fun for everyone. One note: Thanks to some work from readers and other media members, we should add to the list of teams that needs to lose at least one game in order for the Lions to advance with a 9-7 record. That list now includes the New York Giants, along with the Chicago Bears, Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals.
  2. I re-watched the Lions' final drive as part of a post I'm working on for later this week. (Can we come up with a more original name than "The Drive?" Submissions to the mailbag, please.) I'm sure everyone has their own favorite play or moment, but for me it might have been what otherwise appeared to be a poor throw from Stafford. Receiver Calvin Johnson had broken free down the middle and would have had a touchdown if Stafford had hit him in stride. But with an interior rush bearing down, Stafford couldn't step into the throw and instead flung the ball flat-footed. It still traveled 57 yards in the air. How many NFL quarterbacks have that kind of arm strength? If he hadn't been before, I would think Stafford is now in the mix for serious Pro Bowl consideration. The only NFC quarterbacks who I think we can say have definitely had a better season are Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees. Stafford vs. Eli Manning would be an interesting debate. One note: Stafford has now led four comebacks this season from deficits of at least 13 points.
  3. Sunday's game was a reminder that the Lions hadn't forgotten about receiver Calvin Johnson. They just are determined to limit the passes they force his way when defenses overcompensate for his presence. He had 236 yards and one touchdown in the four games prior to exploding for 214 yards and two scores Sunday. The Raiders played some single-man against him and even tried covering him in some sort of warped Tampa-2 scheme on the 48-yard play that set up the winning score. The Lions didn't bother stopping to say thanks. Johnson is now second in the NFL with 1,335 yards and 14 touchdown receptions, trailing only Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski, respectively. As great of a game as Johnson had, I think we should also note that receiver Nate Burleson had arguably his best game of the season, catching a 39-yard touchdown pass amid his seven receptions and perhaps having a little something to do with the attention the Raiders paid, or didn't pay, to Johnson.
And here is one issue that I still don't get:
I appreciate defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, apparently without being questioned, offering a forceful public apology from his own lips for his actions on Thanksgiving Day and, finally, acknowledging that he had apologized via phone to Green Bay Packers guard Evan Dietrich-Smith. Suh then expressed hope that everyone would move past the issue. In all reality, I think the public/media would have done so a long time ago had Suh said what he said Sunday a long time ago. Instead, he provided a textbook example of how to string out a public controversy through incomplete answers and impersonal expressions of partial remorse. But all's well that ends well, and it was nice to see Suh celebrating tangible contributions to Sunday's victory. He's a big boy and can take care of himself, but he deserved an opportunity to smile again.

NFC North at night

December, 7, 2011
12/07/11
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Let's catch up after a busy Wednesday of newsbits here in the NFC North:

Chicago Bears: Cornerback D.J. Moore, who has missed three games because of an ankle injury, is expected to practice without restrictions this week and could resume his role as the Bears' nickel back for Sunday's game at the Denver Broncos. … Quarterback Jay Cutler had the stitches removed from his surgically-repaired right thumb. He hopes to resume throwing in the next week or so but said on ESPN 1000: "It's just time and time is not really on our side right now."

Detroit Lions: Missing from practice were safety Louis Delmas (knee), defensive tackle Nick Fairley (foot), cornerback Chris Houston (knee), defensive end Lawrence Jackson (thigh) and running back Kevin Smith (ankle). … According to Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press, receiver Rashied Davis appeared to be taking practice repetitions from rookie Titus Young, who is a candidate to be benched for Sunday's game against the Minnesota Vikings. Receiver Nate Burleson told reporters that coach Jim Schwartz has announced "a zero-tolerance policy" against "bonehead mistakes." Schwartz said: "Guys that hurt the team aren't going to be available to be able to do things like that. We are going to do everything we can to win the football game."

Green Bay Packers: Linebacker Erik Walden, arrested November 25 after a domestic incident with his girlfriend, was charged Wednesday with misdemeanor disorderly conduct-domestic abuse. He is free on bond and has a hearing scheduled for Dec. 27. Coach Mike McCarthy said the situation is under review but that Walden will start Sunday against the Oakland Raiders. … Linebacker Desmond Bishop (calf) doesn't appear likely to play Sunday, but fellow linebacker A.J. Hawk (calf) has a better chance. Neither Bishop nor Hawk practiced Wednesday. Cornerback Charles Woodson (concussion) was a limited participant in practice. … The Packers promoted quarterback Graham Harrell from the practice squad to the active roster because, according to Pete Dougherty of the Green Bay Press-Gazette, the Buffalo Bills were trying to sign him.

Minnesota Vikings: Quarterback Christian Ponder (hip) and running back Adrian Peterson (ankle) both sat out practice. Ponder is expected to play Sunday against the Lions. Peterson's status is less clear. Defensive end Brian Robison (concussion) also missed practice, as did left guard Steve Hutchinson (illness).
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