NFC North: NFL Draft 2010
Todd McShay thinks the Lions' performance in the draft
has been underrated. Also, McShay says the story of Jevan Snead will be a cautionary tale for players that consider leaving school early in the future.
Let's clean out our notebook with the 2010 NFL draft in the books:
Many of us considered offensive tackle and outside linebacker as Green Bay's top two needs in this draft. The Packers drafted Iowa's Bryan Bulaga to address the former, but they came up empty on the latter and don't have an obvious answer at the position shared last year by Aaron Kampman and Brad Jones.
That's a particular blow for a team that generally sits out veteran free agency. But general manager Ted Thompson and coach Mike McCarthy both hinted a linebacker move of some kind could be on the horizon.
"We didn't draft any linebackers this year," Thompson said, "but still we're going to be trying to add some stuff to that position, sure."
According to ESPN's Stats & Information, NFL teams drafted 36 linebackers over the past three days, more than any other position.
The Packers drafted a running back in the sixth round who missed the entire 2009 season after undergoing shoulder surgery. McCarthy wouldn't commit to whether Buffalo's James Starks will be cleared for all of spring drills.
"We're very comfortable with his particular medical situation," McCarthy said, "but until he gets here and gets to work, we'll have a complete idea of where he is."
Starks, 6-foot-2 and 218 pounds, has the kind of size to make a difference
We discussed the inconsistency that dropped USC defensive end Everson Griffen from possible first-round status to Minnesota's fourth-round pick. Speaking to local reporters, Griffen said he is "not a big guy to make excuses" but revealed he played half of last season with a turf toe.
"It was a bad turf toe," he said. "Two months ago, it finally started feeling better. You just got to want to play at that level and that's what I want to do. ... Coming off this injury affected me for about half of the year, but I'm feeling 100 percent. I'm ready to go. No new injuries."
Vikings director of college scouting Scott Studwell referred to Griffen as "a college student that enjoyed the college life a little bit," a nice way of saying his game might have been affected by his social life. To his credit, Griffen didn't dispute that notion.
"What college kid doesn't enjoy college?" he said. "College only happens one time, and you learn from your mistakes. I wouldn't take anything back from my college experience. You learn from your mistakes, and that's how you become an adult. That's what I did. I learned from my mistakes."
Detroit plans to work fourth-round pick Jason Fox on both the left and right side, offensive line coach George Yarno told local reporters. Fox is still working his way back from a torn patella tendon.
"He'll rotate both tackles: Left and right and see where it goes from there," Yarno said. "I think with his injury and everything, it will take some time before he's ready to go. We're looking at him as kind of the third tackle right now [behind starters Jeff Backus and Gosder Cherilus] and see where the competition will go from there."
Lions general manager Martin Mayhew was at it again Saturday, upgrading the throw-in draft pick he got in the Tony Scheffler-Ernie Sims trade earlier this month.
To review: As part of a three-way deal, the Lions sent Sims to Philadelphia and got Scheffler from Denver. The Broncos also gave the Lions their seventh-round draft pick, No. 220 overall. Saturday, the Lions sent that pick to Philadelphia in exchange for the Eagles' sixth-round pick in 2010. At this rate, it will be a first-rounder by the time next April rolls around.
We briefly touched on the possibility of Chicago pursuing Pro Bowl guard Alan Faneca, who was released Saturday by the New York Jets. Asked about the possibility by Chicago reporters, Bears general manager Jerry Angelo wouldn't rule it out.
"I don't know who would not consider Alan Faneca, if you had a need at the offensive line," Angelo said. "Again, we'll look into some things, like we did before the draft."
Something to keep an eye on, for sure.
The Chicago scout that handled the report on Central Michigan quarterback Dan LeFevour referenced New England quarterback Tom Brady during an interview with Chicago reporters. Scout Jeff Shiver said: "A long time ago, I missed a quarterback in the sixth round. I think he's still with the Patriots."
I think that was Shiver's way of suggesting the Bears did more than take a sixth-round flyer on a local kid who grew up with a Walter Payton jersey on his wall. They believe he can develop into a legitimate NFL quarterback.
Many of us considered offensive tackle and outside linebacker as Green Bay's top two needs in this draft. The Packers drafted Iowa's Bryan Bulaga to address the former, but they came up empty on the latter and don't have an obvious answer at the position shared last year by Aaron Kampman and Brad Jones.
That's a particular blow for a team that generally sits out veteran free agency. But general manager Ted Thompson and coach Mike McCarthy both hinted a linebacker move of some kind could be on the horizon.
"We didn't draft any linebackers this year," Thompson said, "but still we're going to be trying to add some stuff to that position, sure."
According to ESPN's Stats & Information, NFL teams drafted 36 linebackers over the past three days, more than any other position.
The Packers drafted a running back in the sixth round who missed the entire 2009 season after undergoing shoulder surgery. McCarthy wouldn't commit to whether Buffalo's James Starks will be cleared for all of spring drills.
"We're very comfortable with his particular medical situation," McCarthy said, "but until he gets here and gets to work, we'll have a complete idea of where he is."
Starks, 6-foot-2 and 218 pounds, has the kind of size to make a difference
We discussed the inconsistency that dropped USC defensive end Everson Griffen from possible first-round status to Minnesota's fourth-round pick. Speaking to local reporters, Griffen said he is "not a big guy to make excuses" but revealed he played half of last season with a turf toe.
"It was a bad turf toe," he said. "Two months ago, it finally started feeling better. You just got to want to play at that level and that's what I want to do. ... Coming off this injury affected me for about half of the year, but I'm feeling 100 percent. I'm ready to go. No new injuries."
Vikings director of college scouting Scott Studwell referred to Griffen as "a college student that enjoyed the college life a little bit," a nice way of saying his game might have been affected by his social life. To his credit, Griffen didn't dispute that notion.
"What college kid doesn't enjoy college?" he said. "College only happens one time, and you learn from your mistakes. I wouldn't take anything back from my college experience. You learn from your mistakes, and that's how you become an adult. That's what I did. I learned from my mistakes."
Detroit plans to work fourth-round pick Jason Fox on both the left and right side, offensive line coach George Yarno told local reporters. Fox is still working his way back from a torn patella tendon.
"He'll rotate both tackles: Left and right and see where it goes from there," Yarno said. "I think with his injury and everything, it will take some time before he's ready to go. We're looking at him as kind of the third tackle right now [behind starters Jeff Backus and Gosder Cherilus] and see where the competition will go from there."
Lions general manager Martin Mayhew was at it again Saturday, upgrading the throw-in draft pick he got in the Tony Scheffler-Ernie Sims trade earlier this month.
To review: As part of a three-way deal, the Lions sent Sims to Philadelphia and got Scheffler from Denver. The Broncos also gave the Lions their seventh-round draft pick, No. 220 overall. Saturday, the Lions sent that pick to Philadelphia in exchange for the Eagles' sixth-round pick in 2010. At this rate, it will be a first-rounder by the time next April rolls around.
We briefly touched on the possibility of Chicago pursuing Pro Bowl guard Alan Faneca, who was released Saturday by the New York Jets. Asked about the possibility by Chicago reporters, Bears general manager Jerry Angelo wouldn't rule it out.
"I don't know who would not consider Alan Faneca, if you had a need at the offensive line," Angelo said. "Again, we'll look into some things, like we did before the draft."
Something to keep an eye on, for sure.
The Chicago scout that handled the report on Central Michigan quarterback Dan LeFevour referenced New England quarterback Tom Brady during an interview with Chicago reporters. Scout Jeff Shiver said: "A long time ago, I missed a quarterback in the sixth round. I think he's still with the Patriots."
I think that was Shiver's way of suggesting the Bears did more than take a sixth-round flyer on a local kid who grew up with a Walter Payton jersey on his wall. They believe he can develop into a legitimate NFL quarterback.
Childress hopes Favre is QB ... in 2020
April, 24, 2010
4/24/10
7:20
PM ET
By
Kevin Seifert | ESPN.com
EDEN PRAIRIE, Minn. -- A few of you weren't happy with my take on Minnesota's failure to address its long-term quarterback situation during the draft. So I decided to give the Vikings' top two football officials the opportunity to explain their apparent comfort level with a depth chart that likely includes a 41-year-old starter and two veterans -- Tarvaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels -- whose performances last summer in training camp necessitated the signing of Brett Favre in the first place.
FavreVice president of player personnel Rick Spielman and coach Brad Childress both attempted to brush off the question. I followed up, and we'll end Saturday's coverage with their responses.
Asked to gauge his long-term comfort level at the position, Childress first joked about a recent television ad where Favre wins the MVP award in 2020.
"Maybe I was dreaming or something like that," Childress said. "I think I saw a commercial of Favre -- maybe it was just me going forward -- of winning the MVP award 10 years from now. Maybe it was just seeing a lot of tape lately. Might have been dreaming."
Childress then said this:
"The native thing in this is change. I think I said the other day, whether the guy that is going to be the quarterback here is on our roster or is somebody that we're going to acquire, just remains to be seen here. It just keeps changing. I'll let [the media] zero in on that and provide an opinion. But I'm going to stick by my dream."
My interpretation: Childress is confident the Vikings will figure something out, and it might be time to accept that there won't necessarily be a single, traditional long-term answer.
Spielman, meanwhile, indicated the Vikings were never in position to draft a quarterback they wanted this year.
"We develop the quarterback board just like we develop every other position on our board," he said. "If there is a potential guy that we feel is the right fit and is what we want and what Brad wants and the coaches want to fit this offensive scheme, then we would pull the trigger just like any other position."
My point all along is that the Vikings should identify and draft a young quarterback before it becomes a dire need. That's how you ensure an orderly transition. The Vikings don't see it that way, however. And that's fine. I've said my piece. They've said theirs. Let's all move on. (For now.)

Asked to gauge his long-term comfort level at the position, Childress first joked about a recent television ad where Favre wins the MVP award in 2020.
"Maybe I was dreaming or something like that," Childress said. "I think I saw a commercial of Favre -- maybe it was just me going forward -- of winning the MVP award 10 years from now. Maybe it was just seeing a lot of tape lately. Might have been dreaming."
Childress then said this:
"The native thing in this is change. I think I said the other day, whether the guy that is going to be the quarterback here is on our roster or is somebody that we're going to acquire, just remains to be seen here. It just keeps changing. I'll let [the media] zero in on that and provide an opinion. But I'm going to stick by my dream."
My interpretation: Childress is confident the Vikings will figure something out, and it might be time to accept that there won't necessarily be a single, traditional long-term answer.
Spielman, meanwhile, indicated the Vikings were never in position to draft a quarterback they wanted this year.
"We develop the quarterback board just like we develop every other position on our board," he said. "If there is a potential guy that we feel is the right fit and is what we want and what Brad wants and the coaches want to fit this offensive scheme, then we would pull the trigger just like any other position."
My point all along is that the Vikings should identify and draft a young quarterback before it becomes a dire need. That's how you ensure an orderly transition. The Vikings don't see it that way, however. And that's fine. I've said my piece. They've said theirs. Let's all move on. (For now.)
Kirby Lee/Image of Sport/US PresswireThe Vikings will pair Stanford running back Toby Gerhart, above, with Adrian Peterson.Virginia cornerback Chris Cook faces a season as a reserve/special teams player behind veterans Antoine Winfield, Lito Sheppard, Benny Sapp and eventually Cedric Griffin. Stanford running back Toby Gerhart, meanwhile, will get the touches left over by workhorse starter Adrian Peterson.
So it goes for a team that is expected to bring back all 22 starters from the group that advanced to the NFC Championship Game. The Vikings didn't find their quarterback of the future on Friday, twice passing up Notre Dame's Jimmy Clausen and Texas' Colt McCoy, but they still wound up with two players who figure -- at best -- to play secondary roles in 2010.
"We've helped our roster a lot today," said vice president of player personnel Rick Spielman, referring to the all-important depth Cook and Gerhart will provide. The way Gerhart ended up with the Vikings illustrates the way Spielman is approaching this draft: As a tool to polish the edges of his roster.
I was totally on board with the Vikings' decision to let veteran tailback Chester Taylor depart via free agency. If the Vikings follow past practice and Peterson stays healthy, their backup running back will get no more than 150 touches in 2010. It would have been irrational to pay Taylor the $7 million in guarantees he got from Chicago for such a limited role.
The Vikings made one run at signing a veteran replacement, but when veteran LaDainian Tomlinson signed with the New York Jets, Spielman quickly pivoted toward the draft -- where it is a more than reasonable expectation to find a complementary running back.
"I knew what was coming out in the draft and I knew the potential runners that could be available to us," Spielman said. "So if something does not work out in free agency, I have a pretty extensive chart.... So you make a run at one. You don't have to panic because potentially you can get something down the road in the draft."
Spielman passed on an opportunity to draft Cal's Jahvid Best at No. 30 overall Thursday night. But he jumped for Gerhart -- giving up his third-round pick (No. 93 overall) to move up 11 spots in the second round. Although Gerhart's 231-pound frame is big enough to be a fullback, the Vikings project him as a traditional (and bruising) tailback in their scheme. Although he didn't fully confirm it, coach Brad Childress suggested Gerhart has the tools to replace Taylor as a third-down back as well.
"I think you see a very versatile athlete there," Childress said. "I know he carried the ball between the tackles [at Stanford], ... but he's exceptional in the pass game. It's not something that was highly emphasized there. I know the system that [Stanford] runs, and he'll come in here and be able to adapt very quickly. He gives you a bigger body, whether it's a backup running back or a special teamer."
Because he has that "bigger" frame and attended Stanford, Gerhart has drawn middling comparisons to former Cardinal fullback Tommy Vardell. But Gerhart runs the 40-yard dash in a legitimate 4.5 seconds, and I think anyone who watched him play in college knows he has a significant burst and tremendous competitive instincts. Even Gerhart said he believes he has "more wiggle" than Vardell and that he can be "more all-purpose."
You'll find no argument here. I might not draft Gerhart be a 20-carry per game back, but that's not what the Vikings need as long as Peterson is on the roster.
"I'm not sure what my role is going to be," Gerhart said, "but I think it's going to be to complement the best running back in football. ... I look forward to finding out more and contributing to the team."
In the scenario I believe the Vikings envision, Gerhart will follow in Taylor's footsteps: About three-to-six carries per game and two-to-three catches in third-down situations. I think that's a fair way to use him, and it's a rotation that Childress and running backs coach Eric Bieniemy established during three years of working with Peterson and Taylor.
Bieniemy, in fact, once recruited Gerhart to UCLA when he worked as the Bruins' running backs coach in 2006. Gerhart planned to commit until the Vikings hired Bieniemy away two weeks before NCAA signing day. Bieniemy had big plans for Gerhart as a feature back then. Now, he'll have him as a finishing touch.
"Kind of ironic," Gerhart said.
Cook will have time to develop in Minnesota
April, 23, 2010
4/23/10
6:28
PM ET
By
Kevin Seifert | ESPN.com
EDEN PRAIRIE, Minn. -- In retrospect, we shouldn't be surprised with Minnesota's first pick of the 2010 draft. Earlier this spring, Vikings defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier spent a day with Virginia cornerback Chris Cook and worked him out privately in a clear sign of the Vikings' deep interest.
I never felt that the arrival of veteran Lito Sheppard would alter the Vikings' draft plans, and that bore out Friday. Cook is a versatile prospect who will give the Vikings short-term depth at cornerback and could figure in one of two ways over the long-term: As a future replacement for 33-year-old cornerback Antoine Winfield, or perhaps as a strong safety.
At 6-foot-2, Cook is about as big as a cornerback gets. I'm sure the Vikings will first want to see if he can play the position at the NFL level before deciding whether to play him at safety. Ultimately, this pick is a sign of the Vikings' relatively luxurious position in this draft: With their top pick, they can afford to take a player whose primary contribution in his rookie year will be on special teams.
Here is Scouts Inc.'s profile on Cook:
Pros: Long strides and lengthy build give him elite range on the outside. Turns, locates and plays the ball well. Displays natural hands and consistently comes down with routine interception. Shows body control to come down with interception outside frame as well. Gets into strong position and does a nice job of uses big frame to separate receivers from the ball. Physical in jump ball situations.
Cons: Displays willingness to get involved but needs to develop a more aggressive attitude. Can get caught too high in back pedal and false steps too often transitioning out of it. Questionable recovery speed and struggles to make up ground once beaten and stacked by receivers.
I never felt that the arrival of veteran Lito Sheppard would alter the Vikings' draft plans, and that bore out Friday. Cook is a versatile prospect who will give the Vikings short-term depth at cornerback and could figure in one of two ways over the long-term: As a future replacement for 33-year-old cornerback Antoine Winfield, or perhaps as a strong safety.
At 6-foot-2, Cook is about as big as a cornerback gets. I'm sure the Vikings will first want to see if he can play the position at the NFL level before deciding whether to play him at safety. Ultimately, this pick is a sign of the Vikings' relatively luxurious position in this draft: With their top pick, they can afford to take a player whose primary contribution in his rookie year will be on special teams.
Here is Scouts Inc.'s profile on Cook:
Pros: Long strides and lengthy build give him elite range on the outside. Turns, locates and plays the ball well. Displays natural hands and consistently comes down with routine interception. Shows body control to come down with interception outside frame as well. Gets into strong position and does a nice job of uses big frame to separate receivers from the ball. Physical in jump ball situations.
Cons: Displays willingness to get involved but needs to develop a more aggressive attitude. Can get caught too high in back pedal and false steps too often transitioning out of it. Questionable recovery speed and struggles to make up ground once beaten and stacked by receivers.
Inside Lions-Vikings intra-division trade
April, 23, 2010
4/23/10
12:07
AM ET
By
Kevin Seifert | ESPN.com
ALLEN PARK, Mich. -- Jim Schwartz's legendary blood pressure started to rise late Thursday evening. The running back he has coveted was still available near the end of the first round, and Detroit president Tom Lewand was trying to finalize a trade -- with a division rival, no less -- to move up and draft him.
"I wanted to grab the phone from him and start beating him with it," a noticeably calmer Schwartz said a few minutes later.
Yes, the end of Thursday night's first round took on a decidedly competitive tone when the Lions talked Minnesota into giving up its spot at No. 30 overall for a price lower than originally believed. In exchange for helping the Lions draft Cal tailback Jahvid Best, the Vikings moved down four spots and took Detroit's No. 34 overall pick.
The teams swapped fourth-rounders -- the Vikings moving up to No. 100 overall, the Lions dropping to No. 128 -- and the Vikings grabbed one of the Lions' seventh-round picks (No. 214) as well.
Schwartz noted fairly that "they helped us out, [but] we helped them out." But if Best makes the impact the Lions believe he will, the Vikings might one day wonder if they should have taken another offer. (Vikings vice president of player personnel Rick Spielman said the Vikings heard from several other possible trade partners.)
"This was a player that we had a lot of really good feelings for and a guy that we had a plan for exactly how we're going to use him on offense," Schwartz said. "I was hoping for two things in this draft. One was to get him. ... But if we didn't get him, [I was hoping] that he didn't go to Green Bay or Minnesota or Chicago and have to defend against a guy like that twice a year."
I can't argue with the Vikings' decision to trade down. A number of players they likely would have been interested in -- Florida center/guard Maurkice Pouncey and Boise State cornerback Kyle Wilson among them -- were off the board. Oddly, the one player that might have made sense for them was Best, who could have replaced Chester Tayloras the Vikings' No. 2 tailback and given them yet another blue-chip playmaker.
But Spielman said the return was too high to consider drafting Best or shying away from dealing with a division rival. He claimed all four players the Vikings targeted at No. 30 are still available, meaning they will conceivably have their pick of them at the top of the second round.
"I think the value of going up and having those slots that we were able to get was very important to us," Spielman said. "And I think if there was a player at 30 that we were definitely sold on that we said there was no way that we'd trade out of this pick to have that player, then we wouldn't have done it. But I think with us having the options to look at [Friday] that we were able to still potentially get a player that we many have taken at 30, and help ourselves with our slots."
We can't really judge this trade with six rounds remaining in the draft, and in truth it might take several years to give an accurate accounting of it. I will say this: You can't help but notice the Lions' burgeoning list of offensive skill players. The list includes quarterback Matthew Stafford, receivers Calvin Johnson and Nate Burleson, tight ends Brandon Pettigrew and Tony Scheffler, and now Best. Even if incumbent tailback Kevin Smith were healthy, I would consider Best by far the best tailback on the Lions' roster.
"We've got the makings of some special things," Schwartz said.
More to come Friday.
"I wanted to grab the phone from him and start beating him with it," a noticeably calmer Schwartz said a few minutes later.
Yes, the end of Thursday night's first round took on a decidedly competitive tone when the Lions talked Minnesota into giving up its spot at No. 30 overall for a price lower than originally believed. In exchange for helping the Lions draft Cal tailback Jahvid Best, the Vikings moved down four spots and took Detroit's No. 34 overall pick.
[+] Enlarge
Steve Dykes/Getty ImagesJahvid Best ran for 867 yards and 12 touchdowns before missing Cal's final four games with a concussion.
Steve Dykes/Getty ImagesJahvid Best ran for 867 yards and 12 touchdowns before missing Cal's final four games with a concussion.Schwartz noted fairly that "they helped us out, [but] we helped them out." But if Best makes the impact the Lions believe he will, the Vikings might one day wonder if they should have taken another offer. (Vikings vice president of player personnel Rick Spielman said the Vikings heard from several other possible trade partners.)
"This was a player that we had a lot of really good feelings for and a guy that we had a plan for exactly how we're going to use him on offense," Schwartz said. "I was hoping for two things in this draft. One was to get him. ... But if we didn't get him, [I was hoping] that he didn't go to Green Bay or Minnesota or Chicago and have to defend against a guy like that twice a year."
I can't argue with the Vikings' decision to trade down. A number of players they likely would have been interested in -- Florida center/guard Maurkice Pouncey and Boise State cornerback Kyle Wilson among them -- were off the board. Oddly, the one player that might have made sense for them was Best, who could have replaced Chester Tayloras the Vikings' No. 2 tailback and given them yet another blue-chip playmaker.
But Spielman said the return was too high to consider drafting Best or shying away from dealing with a division rival. He claimed all four players the Vikings targeted at No. 30 are still available, meaning they will conceivably have their pick of them at the top of the second round.
"I think the value of going up and having those slots that we were able to get was very important to us," Spielman said. "And I think if there was a player at 30 that we were definitely sold on that we said there was no way that we'd trade out of this pick to have that player, then we wouldn't have done it. But I think with us having the options to look at [Friday] that we were able to still potentially get a player that we many have taken at 30, and help ourselves with our slots."
We can't really judge this trade with six rounds remaining in the draft, and in truth it might take several years to give an accurate accounting of it. I will say this: You can't help but notice the Lions' burgeoning list of offensive skill players. The list includes quarterback Matthew Stafford, receivers Calvin Johnson and Nate Burleson, tight ends Brandon Pettigrew and Tony Scheffler, and now Best. Even if incumbent tailback Kevin Smith were healthy, I would consider Best by far the best tailback on the Lions' roster.
"We've got the makings of some special things," Schwartz said.
More to come Friday.
ALLEN PARK, Mich. -- Is it appropriate for a divisional blogger to hyperventilate at the end of the first round of the draft? That's pretty much where I am after watching two of our teams pull off a rare first-round trade.
Detroit acquired Minnesota's No. 30 overall pick in order to draft Cal tailback Jahvid Best. To help out their friends from the east, the Vikings got the No. 34 overall pick, along with what is believed to be a fourth-round pick and a seventh-round pick for their trouble.
UPDATE: The teams actually swaped fourth-round picks.
(Incredible serendipity for me, if no one else.)
Most of the players the Vikings were probably interested in were off the board, but Best could have replaced Chester Taylor as the Vikings' No. 2 running back. But the Lions had a greater need, with starter Kevin Smith recovering from a major knee injury, and clearly weren't comfortable waiting to see if Best was available four spots later.
This isn't unprecedented, but it's certainly unusual so high in the draft. I'll be back with much more as soon as we hear from the responsible parties.
Detroit acquired Minnesota's No. 30 overall pick in order to draft Cal tailback Jahvid Best. To help out their friends from the east, the Vikings got the No. 34 overall pick, along with what is believed to be a fourth-round pick and a seventh-round pick for their trouble.
UPDATE: The teams actually swaped fourth-round picks.
(Incredible serendipity for me, if no one else.)
Most of the players the Vikings were probably interested in were off the board, but Best could have replaced Chester Taylor as the Vikings' No. 2 running back. But the Lions had a greater need, with starter Kevin Smith recovering from a major knee injury, and clearly weren't comfortable waiting to see if Best was available four spots later.
This isn't unprecedented, but it's certainly unusual so high in the draft. I'll be back with much more as soon as we hear from the responsible parties.

In these final hours before the NFL draft opens, you would have to look pretty hard to find a media analyst who is convinced the Detroit Lions won't take Nebraska defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh with the No. 2 overall pick. But what if they don't? What if the Lions, led by one of the more mysterious general managers in the league, pull a surprise and look elsewhere?
(That means you, Martin Mayhew.)
What would that mean for the Lions? Who would they pick? Where would that leave the rest of the draft? (Why am I asking so many questions?) Let's consider some possibilities while we await the opening bell:
(That means you, Martin Mayhew.)
What would that mean for the Lions? Who would they pick? Where would that leave the rest of the draft? (Why am I asking so many questions?) Let's consider some possibilities while we await the opening bell:
- As we discussed a few weeks ago, many media draft analysts actually favor Oklahoma's Gerald McCoy as a pure prospect. Suh is considered the so-called "safer" choice because of his heavy college production. Still, we've got nothing other than conventional wisdom and peer pressure telling us the Lions rank Suh over McCoy. For all we know, it could be McCoy.
- We could be wrong in assuming the Lions aren't factoring in the finances of paying No. 2 money to a defensive tackle. As we noted earlier this offseason, it is one of the game's lowest-paid positions. Let's not totally rule out the possibility that the Lions would look at a left tackle for that reason, even though coach Jim Schwartz has said he is happy with current starter Jeff Backus. Two of the draft's top left tackles visited the Lions' complex: Oklahoma State's Russell Okung and Oklahoma's Trent Williams. No one should be stunned if either were the pick.
- If the Lions went with a left tackle instead of Suh or McCoy, it's very possible the rookie would open the season as a reserve. Backus could well remain at left tackle, with newcomer Rob Sims the likely starter at left guard. The Lions are one year removed from giving right guard Stephen Peterman a five-year contract extension. And it seems that right tackle Gosder Cherilus will get one more year to establish himself.
- Without Suh or McCoy, the likeliest starting defensive tackle duo would be Corey Williams and Sammie Lee Hill. Unless the Lions trade for Washington defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth, another possible impediment to drafting Suh.
- If the Lions draft McCoy, you would figure Tampa Bay will snatch Suh at No. 3. The rest of the draft would be unaffected.
- If the choice is Okung or Williams, the draft could get turned on its heels. Either Suh or McCoy could fall as far as Cleveland at No. 7, but probably no further.
- Finally, we shouldn't assume the Lions will react to popular sentiment, including that of their own fans. Don't forget that last year, Lions fans were urging them to take linebacker Aaron Curry over quarterback Matthew Stafford.
Wednesday marked the NFC North’s final pre-draft news conference, and in Chicago the festivities also included some context for a surprising ownership announcement. We’ll start with what I thought was the most critical statement of the day from Chicago Bears general manager Jerry Angelo and then move on to the pending ascension of George McCaskey.
(So no one feels jilted, here are links to our take of the news conferences in Detroit, Green Bay and Minnesota.)
After several weeks of discussion, someone finally put the question to Angelo: Would you really consider robbing the 2011 (or 2012) draft to move up this week? My corporate cousin Jeff Dickerson of ESPNChicago.com passed along Angelo’s response. It’s pretty definitive:
“We're out of that business,” Angelo said. “I don't want to get cute and keep borrowing in the future with picks, because the one thing you know, it's very difficult to guarantee the present. Unless something happens that we really haven't created a scenario for, I doubt that we would do that."
As I’ve written many times this month, you’re a fool to believe everything you hear during draft time. So I’m not ruling out the possibility that the Bears move higher than their current spot at No. 75 overall. But as a franchise, I don’t think the Bears can afford to give up another first- or second-round pick to do it. If I had to guess, I’d say any upward movement on Friday will be minor.
Meanwhile, the Bears laid out a relatively benign explanation for why George McCaskey will replace older brother Michael as the team’s chairman of the board. Family matriarch Virginia McCaskey is 87, Michael McCaskey is 66 and it was time to start the process of an orderly transition. The family has no plan to sell the team and instead wanted to give George McCaskey a full year to get situated before officially taking over.
“The Halas/McCaskey family intends to be running the Bears well into the future,” Michael McCaskey said, according to the team’s website, “so you need to have a good succession plan and a good way to carry it out. This will give George a transition year and leave the Bears in position to do what we’ve always tried to do, which is to pursue championships.”
(So no one feels jilted, here are links to our take of the news conferences in Detroit, Green Bay and Minnesota.)
After several weeks of discussion, someone finally put the question to Angelo: Would you really consider robbing the 2011 (or 2012) draft to move up this week? My corporate cousin Jeff Dickerson of ESPNChicago.com passed along Angelo’s response. It’s pretty definitive:
“We're out of that business,” Angelo said. “I don't want to get cute and keep borrowing in the future with picks, because the one thing you know, it's very difficult to guarantee the present. Unless something happens that we really haven't created a scenario for, I doubt that we would do that."
As I’ve written many times this month, you’re a fool to believe everything you hear during draft time. So I’m not ruling out the possibility that the Bears move higher than their current spot at No. 75 overall. But as a franchise, I don’t think the Bears can afford to give up another first- or second-round pick to do it. If I had to guess, I’d say any upward movement on Friday will be minor.
Meanwhile, the Bears laid out a relatively benign explanation for why George McCaskey will replace older brother Michael as the team’s chairman of the board. Family matriarch Virginia McCaskey is 87, Michael McCaskey is 66 and it was time to start the process of an orderly transition. The family has no plan to sell the team and instead wanted to give George McCaskey a full year to get situated before officially taking over.
“The Halas/McCaskey family intends to be running the Bears well into the future,” Michael McCaskey said, according to the team’s website, “so you need to have a good succession plan and a good way to carry it out. This will give George a transition year and leave the Bears in position to do what we’ve always tried to do, which is to pursue championships.”
US PresswireWhich defensive tackle would produce greater gains for the Lions: Oklahoma's Gerald McCoy or Nebraska's Ndamukong Suh?
(Mock draft evidence here, here and here. Ranking reversal at Scouts Inc., NFL.com, and Pro Football Weekly. ESPN's Mel Kiper is one of the few Suh supporters in both categories.)
"You could flip a coin on these two," Kiper said last week. But with Detroit poised to choose between them with the No. 2 overall pick, the important question is this: Can you? Are McCoy and Suh truly interchangeable prospects? Or will we look back one day and scrutinize the decision the way draft historians have broken down the 1998 choice between quarterbacks Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf?
To be sure, Suh-McCoy is not nearly as dramatic as Manning-Leaf. Defensive tackles don't impact a game the way quarterbacks do, and Leaf represented an extreme case of draft flameout.
But for the first time in 34 years, we're expecting two defensive tackles to be among the first five picks of an NFL draft. Usually we're discussing whether there are any tackles worthy of that honor, let alone trying to draw distinctions between two.
That dynamic, along with conventional draft history, suggests it would be a folly to be believe both players will have comparable careers. I couldn't find a suitable metric for determining draft success, but I can tell you many NFL personnel men follow a general principle espoused by Chicago general manager Jerry Angelo this week. "Half of the first round won't play to expectations," Angelo said.
Those who fall short of expectations aren't necessarily busts. The high threshold for first-round picks, let alone those taken in the top 5, is hard to meet. Historically speaking, there is a right and wrong -- or, at least, less right -- decision to be made here.
We've had so many discussions about whether the Lions should consider a left tackle at No. 2 overall that I think we've failed to give enough consideration the more likely scenario: Choosing between Suh and McCoy. How should the Lions make that choice?
I don't know if any of us can answer that with certainty using present-day facts. What we can do, however, is offer the parameters the Lions are surely considering in their analysis.
Production
Many scouts will tell you they prefer to have seen a player produce in games rather than assume what they might do in the NFL. By that measure, Suh's production outweighed McCoy's from every measurable vantage point.
Most of you already know the basics: McCoy had 14 sacks in his college career. Suh managed 12 last season. But the charts to your right, compiled by ESPN's Stats & Information, more fully illustrate Suh's tangible production in each player's final college season.
As you can see, Suh managed 88 impact plays -- sacks, tackles for losses, quarterback hurries and deflections/interceptions -- last season to McCoy's 46.5. Suh was also more effective on third downs. It's true that Suh played one additional game, but the ratio is still 2-1 when you consider it from the perspective of impact plays per snap. The same is true when you measure Suh's performance against double teams relative to McCoy.
The numbers alone shouldn't account for a choice between the two, but you would be hard-pressed to find a scout that doesn't place premium value on demonstrated college production. Asked about the statistical discrepancy at the combine, McCoy said his job at Oklahoma was to be a "disruptor" and "make sure [the ball] doesn't get past the line of scrimmage." In that assignment, McCoy implied, it was more important to re-direct the ball carrier than it was to make the tackle itself.
Which brings us to ...
Scheme
Another paradox of the Suh-McCoy debate is that Suh played in a "two-gap" system at Nebraska while McCoy was in a "one-gap" scheme at Oklahoma. For those who don't know what that means: The number corresponds to how many lanes between offensive linemen the defensive lineman is responsible for.
The conventional expectation for a two-gapping defensive tackle is that he will clog the line and allow linebackers to jump in and make a play. A one-gap defensive tackle typically has more freedom to get into the backfield and make a play because he has only one direction to worry about.
If anything, given those parameters, you would have expected McCoy to compile better numbers. But Suh's production advantage means the Lions will have to make schematic projections on both players.
In McCoy's case, they'll have to determine why Suh was more productive in a less aggressive scheme. For Suh, the Lions will have to project if he would be equally as effective as a penetrator as he was in holding up the line of scrimmage and finding the ball.
The Lions, it should be noted, run a scheme closer to Oklahoma's than Nebraska's. They will ask Suh or McCoy to be aggressive and get into the backfield with one-gap responsibility.
Although I doubt he would admit otherwise, Lions coach Jim Schwartz said last month that either player would fit their scheme.
"That's not what those players are," Schwartz said. "That's what they were asked to do. They're very similar in their skill set. I think both of them -- if you took Suh to Oklahoma and McCoy to Nebraska -- I think they'd both excel in the other person's defense. When you are drafting at the top of the draft, you're looking for guys who aren't just a creation of the scheme. You're looking for guys who have multidimensional skills that can do a lot of those different things.
"Both guys are big. They're fast. They have high character and both are productive at a high level of competition. There's a lot to like with both of them."
But with projections required for both players, scheme clues don't help clarify the issue.
Background
There are no obvious red flags for either player, but you consider every background blip when drafting as high as No. 2. Suh's medical report has drawn some scrutiny because of two knee injuries, including a torn meniscus that required him to redshirt his freshman year.
McCoy, meanwhile, produced a disappointing 23 repetitions on the bench press at the scouting combine and hasn't made another attempt to increase that total. Is a low bench-press total a reason to pass over someone in the draft? Not necessarily, but it's certainly worth further investigation to ensure McCoy is entering the NFL with the strength necessary to take on 320-pound guards and centers.
As Schwartz noted, both players have excellent character reputations. If you haven't already, make sure you check out ESPN.com profiles of McCoy and Suh. For what it's worth, McCoy was president of Oklahoma's chapter of the Fellowship of Christian Athletes.
What to do?
There are no obvious hints of a potential bust from either player, but expectations for a No. 2 pick extend much higher than that. Like any other team in their position, the Lions need dominance -- not just production -- from this pick.
If you're basing it on past performance, Suh would be the choice. If you want to take it deeper, it gets more complicated. And that's where we are now. Nine days. And counting.
In researching this week's post on Minnesota's dilemma at quarterback, I reached out to Steve Muench of Scouts Inc. Steve went over a number of the top draft prospects, and his evaluation of Notre Dame's Jimmy Clausen was telling.
"Maybe his top attribute," Muench said, "is that he played in a pro-style offense."
It wasn't so much a shot as it was an acknowledgment that Clausen will enter the NFL with far more experience than some of his contemporaries in operating the type of scheme he must master before getting on the field. That background is becoming increasingly rare as more college teams move to a version of the spread offense.
At Notre Dame, Clausen played in a pseudo-West Coast scheme under former coach Charlie Weis. The Vikings are among many NFL teams that run a similar style.
Teams looking to get a first-round quarterback on the field within a year or two will without question take that background into consideration. Perhaps that's why Clausen's private throwing session, scheduled for Friday in South Bend, Ind., hasn't drawn the attention of some other high-profile quarterbacks. His game tape probably gives a much more accurate depiction of his NFL aptitude, one way or the other.
ESPN's Stats & Information put together some numbers that illustrate the dichotomy of Clausen's background compared to that of some other top prospects. In the chart to your right, you see Clausen's 2009 breakdown in throwing from the shotgun and when he lined up under center.
While more than half of his throws came from the shotgun, the figures are still much more balanced than those of Oklahoma's Sam Bradford, Texas' Colt McCoy and Florida's Tim Tebow. Here are the total number of passes each of those quarterbacks threw last season after lining up behind center, according to the same research:
McCoy: 12 (5-for-12, 27 yards)
Bradford: 1 (0-1)
Tebow: 1 (1-1, 16 yards)
It's not as if Bradford, McCoy and Tebow won't be able to make the adjustment to a more traditional dropback passing. But it is a different perspective and takes time to re-acquaint with after a college career in the spread system. That's why the focus of Clausen's throwing session will be to test his healing toe more than it will be to judge his ability to throw NFL-style passes.
Jimmy Clausen will work out for scouts at Notre Dame's pro day
"Maybe his top attribute," Muench said, "is that he played in a pro-style offense."
It wasn't so much a shot as it was an acknowledgment that Clausen will enter the NFL with far more experience than some of his contemporaries in operating the type of scheme he must master before getting on the field. That background is becoming increasingly rare as more college teams move to a version of the spread offense.
At Notre Dame, Clausen played in a pseudo-West Coast scheme under former coach Charlie Weis. The Vikings are among many NFL teams that run a similar style.
Teams looking to get a first-round quarterback on the field within a year or two will without question take that background into consideration. Perhaps that's why Clausen's private throwing session, scheduled for Friday in South Bend, Ind., hasn't drawn the attention of some other high-profile quarterbacks. His game tape probably gives a much more accurate depiction of his NFL aptitude, one way or the other.
ESPN's Stats & Information put together some numbers that illustrate the dichotomy of Clausen's background compared to that of some other top prospects. In the chart to your right, you see Clausen's 2009 breakdown in throwing from the shotgun and when he lined up under center.
While more than half of his throws came from the shotgun, the figures are still much more balanced than those of Oklahoma's Sam Bradford, Texas' Colt McCoy and Florida's Tim Tebow. Here are the total number of passes each of those quarterbacks threw last season after lining up behind center, according to the same research:
McCoy: 12 (5-for-12, 27 yards)
Bradford: 1 (0-1)
Tebow: 1 (1-1, 16 yards)
It's not as if Bradford, McCoy and Tebow won't be able to make the adjustment to a more traditional dropback passing. But it is a different perspective and takes time to re-acquaint with after a college career in the spread system. That's why the focus of Clausen's throwing session will be to test his healing toe more than it will be to judge his ability to throw NFL-style passes.
Jimmy Clausen will work out for scouts at Notre Dame's pro day
I had an interesting conversation Thursday with a friend who posed this question: What does Green Bay do with the No. 23 overall draft position if the top four offensive tackles are already off the board?
(Yes, I know. I lead a really fascinating life.)
Seriously, I think it's an interesting and relevant debate with the draft three weeks away. We've discussed the Packers' clear need for a depth infusion at both tackle positions, where starters Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher will be 34 and 33 years old, respectively, when the season begins. But take a look at Mel Kiper's offensive tackle rankings
as they stood Thursday:
1. Oklahoma State's Russell Okung
2. Oklahoma's Trent Williams
3. Iowa's Bryan Bulaga
4. Rutgers' Anthony Davis
5. Indiana's Rodger Saffold
It's not out of the question that Okung, Williams, Bulaga and Davis all will be taken before No. 23. But there seems to be a consensus among media analysts, at least, that the drop-off after Davis is significant. Scouts Inc. ranks Safford as a mid-second round pick. The same goes for Maryland offensive tackle Bruce Campbell, whose draft value varies wildly depending on who you listen to.
The Packers could go with Campbell at No. 23. Or, if they like both him and Saffold, they could probably trade down and get one of them in the second round.
Packers general manager Ted Thompson has a well-earned reputation for the trade-down model. But what if he doesn't move? Where do the Packers go at No. 23 under this scenario?
I don't disagree with what Green Bay linebacker Nick Barnett tweeted Friday morning:
Yes, the Packers could also use an outside linebacker to replace the departed Aaron Kampman. Here are Kiper's top five outside linebackers:
1. Texas' Sergio Kindle
2. Missouri's Sean Weatherspoon
3. TCU's Jerry Hughes
4. South Carolina's Eric Norwood
5. Penn State's Sean Lee
Kindle would be quite a coup for the Packers at No. 23, especially considering his apparent aptitude for a 3-4 defense. Will he be available? It would only be a guess, but typically, anyone with elite pass rushing potential usually goes in the top half of the first round. I wouldn't want to speculate on which linebacker the Packers might like after Kindle, but the list above at least gives you an idea of the players who might be available.
Feel free to weigh in below.
(Yes, I know. I lead a really fascinating life.)
Seriously, I think it's an interesting and relevant debate with the draft three weeks away. We've discussed the Packers' clear need for a depth infusion at both tackle positions, where starters Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher will be 34 and 33 years old, respectively, when the season begins. But take a look at Mel Kiper's offensive tackle rankings
1. Oklahoma State's Russell Okung
2. Oklahoma's Trent Williams
3. Iowa's Bryan Bulaga
4. Rutgers' Anthony Davis
5. Indiana's Rodger Saffold
It's not out of the question that Okung, Williams, Bulaga and Davis all will be taken before No. 23. But there seems to be a consensus among media analysts, at least, that the drop-off after Davis is significant. Scouts Inc. ranks Safford as a mid-second round pick. The same goes for Maryland offensive tackle Bruce Campbell, whose draft value varies wildly depending on who you listen to.
The Packers could go with Campbell at No. 23. Or, if they like both him and Saffold, they could probably trade down and get one of them in the second round.
Packers general manager Ted Thompson has a well-earned reputation for the trade-down model. But what if he doesn't move? Where do the Packers go at No. 23 under this scenario?
I don't disagree with what Green Bay linebacker Nick Barnett tweeted Friday morning:
Here is what is going to happen in the draft i think.. We will draft one or two things... Olb or o lineman... It depends which is avalible.
Yes, the Packers could also use an outside linebacker to replace the departed Aaron Kampman. Here are Kiper's top five outside linebackers:
1. Texas' Sergio Kindle
2. Missouri's Sean Weatherspoon
3. TCU's Jerry Hughes
4. South Carolina's Eric Norwood
5. Penn State's Sean Lee
Kindle would be quite a coup for the Packers at No. 23, especially considering his apparent aptitude for a 3-4 defense. Will he be available? It would only be a guess, but typically, anyone with elite pass rushing potential usually goes in the top half of the first round. I wouldn't want to speculate on which linebacker the Packers might like after Kindle, but the list above at least gives you an idea of the players who might be available.
Feel free to weigh in below.
Mike Tirico, Mel Kiper Jr., Trent Dilfer and Chris Mortensen discuss the Packers' biggest needs in the upcoming NFL draft.
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