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Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Detroit Lions in 2012.

Dream scenario (12-4): The team moves past its string of silly/immature problems, tightening up not only its off-field behavior but also its discipline on the field during games. Mikel Leshoure and Jahvid Best give the Lions a power/speed dimension in the backfield they lacked for most of last season. Rookie receiver Ryan Broyles' knee heals quickly enough to provide a legitimate fourth option among receivers and further spread out opposing defenses. Defensive tackle Nick Fairley realizes his playmaking potential and teams up with Ndamukong Suh to provide consistent and dominant interior play. Fairley, Suh, Cliff Avril and Kyle Vanden Bosch protect an undermanned secondary, and the Lions make big defensive plays against opponents that feel pressure to keep up with Detroit's offense.

Nightmare scenario (7-9): Best and Leshoure don't provide the balance the Lions hope for, either because of injuries or skill deterioration. Broyles takes longer than expected to return, Titus Young has a sophomore slump, and opponents flock to receiver Calvin Johnson. Left tackle Jeff Backus can't hold up for another season. Despite the formidable defensive line, the Lions can't cover for their secondary and give up too many big plays.

We're Black and Blue All Over:

So I tuned in to "Dancing with the Stars" as promised Monday night. It won't rival "LOST" or even "Al TV" on my personal list of favorites. But one of the NFC North's most prominent players over the past decade is a cast member, and I'm well aware of the interest level from many Green Bay Packers fans in Driver's fate on the show.

As it turned out, Driver scored a combined 57 out of a possible 60 on his two dances of the evening, putting him in third place on the judges' scorecard. But that is only part of the final score, and we'll find out Tuesday night whether audience/viewer voting impacted the ranking and who exactly will advance to the finals of the show.

I took away a couple cool moments Monday night. On the day after Mother's Day, Driver tearfully praised his mother, Faye, for being "my soldier for a long time." Also, I laughed when the camera panned the audience after Driver absorbed some criticism from a judge. You could see Packers coach Mike McCarthy with the same quizzical facial expression he usually directs at officials during games. McCarthy sat right next to quarterback Aaron Rodgers and linebacker Clay Matthews. Very solid support.

Continuing around the NFC North:

• Michael Hunt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel thinks the "handwriting is on the ballroom floor for" Driver's departure from the organization.
• The Packers signed five players who participated in their rookie minicamp on a tryout basis, notes the Green Bay Press-Gazette.
• Detroit Lions rookie receiver Ryan Broyles on what he picked up by watching rookie minicamp, via Rod Beard of the Detroit News: "It's a great offense. I've been catching on a little bit now and see how they do it -- a lot like Oklahoma. They like to get out there and run three receivers -- sometimes four -- and even empty the backfield, so I think it's going to be a good offense to be a part of."
• Lions defensive tackle Nick Fairley's court date stemming from an April marijuana arrest was moved back to July 31, according to Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press.
• Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler on the right thumb he fractured last season, via the Associated Press: "It's fine. I really didn't throw a lot in the offseason, rehabbed a little bit and came back and felt good."
• Cutler isn't going along with the Bears' rampant optimism about their offensive line, notes Sean Jensen of the Chicago Sun-Times. Cutler: "You know, the offensive line is definitely going to be a concern and seeing where those guys are going to fit in and seeing what five we go with. If Gabe [Carimi] comes back, if J'Marcus [Webb] pans out. Where are we going to put Chris Williams? There are some question marks there. Until we really get that resolved and get our front five settled in, we've got some work to do on offense."
• Signs still point to the Bears moving Williams back to tackle, according to Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune.
• Judd Zulgad of 1500ESPN.com digs a little deeper into the friendship between Minnesota Vikings receivers Jarius Wright and Greg Childs.
• The Vikings' new stadium deal shields the public from their financial books, notes the Associated Press.

Bill Polian's list of 10 pivotal players in the NFL this season includes Detroit Lions defensive tackle Nick Fairley. You'll need an Insider subscription to see the entire file, but here is what Polian wrote about Fairley:

Fairley could be the missing piece in making the Detroit defense dominant. If the big Auburn alum can reach his potential, a trio of him, Ndamukong Suh and the emerging Corey Williams could make the Lions' D-line extremely hard to handle up the middle and wreak havoc on the pocket (which will help an improving secondary).

Fairley

I still think the Lions need more from the running back position to be legitimate title contenders, but if Fairley steps up, an already improved defense will be taken to another level.

The most interesting part of the choice is that Polian didn't bother suggesting that one of the Lions' defensive backs needs to step it up, whether it's safety Amari Spievey or cornerback Aaron Berry or anyone else who might play a prominent role in improving the team's pass defense. Polian instead focused on the impact of strengthening what is already one of the NFL's more dominant defensive fronts.

That appears to be in line with the Lions' philosophy when you look at how they've focused their roster building in recent years. Over the past three years, they've committed big money to sign defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch and retain defensive end Cliff Avril. They've used the No. 2 overall pick in the draft to select Suh, and the No. 12 overall pick brought them Fairley.

On the other hand, the Lions did use the No. 33 overall pick of the 2009 draft to select safety Louis Delmas. But for the most part, they have cobbled together the secondary with second-tier moves (and players), knowing it would be protected by a more-talented defensive line. It stands to reason that Fairley's emergence in 2012 would only enhance that approach.

Earlier: The Lions have high expectations for Fairley now that he is recovered from a foot injury he originally suffered last summer, despite a recent marijuana charge.

An unexpected fall last year left the Detroit Lions with one of the most celebrated players in the draft. Defensive tackle Nick Fairley had once been considered a potential No. 1 overall pick, and the Lions were thrilled to draft him at No. 12. Now I'm wondering if an NFC North team could benefit from another fall by a talented defensive lineman.

There are no recent red flags on North Carolina defensive end Quinton Coples, but the public discussion surrounding him includes some of the same work-ethic related keywords that have led to recent drops by Fairley and others. Speaking to several ESPN.com bloggers at the scouting combine, ESPN analyst Todd McShay said there were times when Coples stood up in games and "appeared to have a union deal." More recently, McShay said on his Draft Minute video series that there are times when Coples "is the best defensive player in the class" and there are others when "you watch him and say, 'Man, he's mailed it in.'"

Pass rushers are at such a premium that teams are willing to overlook some flaws to get the kind of presence Coples brings with his 6-foot-6 frame and 81-inch wingspan. It makes you wonder if a team like the Chicago Bears, whose needs at defensive end we have well-discussed, wouldn't be an ideal fit. Coples would have an All-Pro in Julius Peppers to attract most offensive attention, and he would have one of the league's top defensive line mentors in coordinator Rod Marinelli to keep him pushing forward.

ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. ranks Coples as the 14th-best player in the draft, and it would require a significant fall for him to still be available when the Bears pick at No. 19. But if he gets out of the top 10, as it appears he might, it wouldn't be a terrible idea for the Bears to consider trading up to get him.

The Sports Science video gives you an idea of how imposing Coples is as a pass disruptor even if he doesn't get past the line of scrimmage. Check it out.

We're Black and Blue All Over:

Detroit Lions president Tom Lewand spoke extensively during a Monday radio interview about three members of the 2011 draft class who have experienced legal entanglements related to marijuana in the past three months. Lewand indicated that all three -- running back Mikel Leshoure, defensive tackle Nick Fairley and offensive lineman Johnny Culbreath -- will be given opportunities to repair their standing with the franchise.

Via the Lions' website, Lewand said: "We expressed disappointment last week and I continue to express disappointment that guys put themselves in the position where they have to have an unpleasant interaction with law enforcement. That is something that should be avoided. But as we all know from life's experiences, it happens, people make mistakes, and you want to give guys opportunities to correct those mistakes, learn from them and move forward."

That's only fair, for as Lewand himself noted, the organization gave him a similar opportunity after a 2010 drunken driving arrest. The NFL suspended him 30 days and fined him $100,000 but Lewand retained his post atop the Lions' front office.

"You are held to a high standard," Lewand said. "I know that firsthand and I've learned that lesson myself. That's a lesson we all have to learn and we have to take it to heart when that adversity is there and when we make mistakes we've got to learn from them and grow as human beings."

Continuing around the NFC North:

• Lions defensive end Cliff Avril pledged to be ready for the season whether or not he participates in the Lions' offseason workouts, according to Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press.
• Vaughn McClure of the Chicago Tribune wonders if the Chicago Bears will limit Devin Hester to punt returns only, and no kickoffs, in 2012.
• Bears linebacker Brian Urlacher is scheduled to receive the team's Ed Block Courage Award on Tuesday, notes Jeff Dickerson of ESPNChicago.com.
• Bears running back Kahlil Bell hasn't signed his restricted free-agent tender but will sign an injury waiver in order to participate in the team's offseason workout program, McClure writes for the Tribune.
• The Green Bay Packers are lamenting the shortened offseason program, as mandated by the NFL's agreement with the NFL Players Association. Rob Demovsky of the Green Bay Press-Gazette explains.
• Duane Dudek of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reviews Packers receiver Donald Driver's latest performance on "Dancing With the Stars."
• Michael Lombardi of NFL.com takes an executive's look at the Minnesota Vikings' myriad roster holes. Lombardi: "With such a large number of concerns, though, it's easy to see why [general manager Rick] Spielman would make the third pick available. The Vikings are not a few players away from competing. Spielman, who was promoted to general manager in January, must recognize this is not a one-year fixer-upper. He has to have a two-year plan to patch up the team's numerous holes. He must take a broad look at the talent pool in the next two years -- both in the draft and in free agency -- and then decide where the answers might come from."
• The Minneapolis City Council will host a stadium hearing on April 24 that opponents appear to be gearing up for, according to Eric Roper of the Star Tribune.

We're Black and Blue All Over:

On Tuesday, we downplayed the individual impact of three incidents Detroit Lions players have had with marijuana in the past three months. They are mostly misdemeanors and aren't likely to have lasting consequences from a legal perspective. If anything, they seem more significant when bunched together as a reflection of the organization.

Drew Sharp of the Detroit Free Press takes a different tack, writing the Lions should release defensive tackle Nick Fairley and running back Mikel Leshoure. They don't need "another ticking time bomb," Sharp writes. He adds: "Just because marijuana usage is perceived as more casual than other drugs doesn't mean the punitive measures should be equally nonchalant."

The timing of these incidents, which also include offensive lineman Johnny Culbreath, suggests the Lions will have to create a more effective internal deterrent. But parting ways with these players would be an awfully harsh, and probably unrealistic, punishment. I think Sharp was trying to snap people out of downplaying the significance of NFL players using marijuana, and the message was heard.

Continuing around the NFC North:

• Chris McCosky of the Detroit News: "The arrests have put a cloud over what has been a mostly optimistic and promising offseason for the Lions."
• Chicago Bears linebacker Brian Urlacher wants to finish his career with the team, according to Sean Jensen of the Chicago Sun-Times.
• The Bears were happy to see the "GSH" on their jerseys be restored to its original size in the Nike uniform change, chairman George McCaskey told the Sun-Times.
• Bears general manager Phil Emery, coach Lovie Smith and receivers coach Darryl Drake were all at Notre Dame's pro day on Tuesday to see receiver Michael Floyd. Vaughn McClure of the Chicago Tribune has more.
• An exact date for a meeting between the Green Bay Packers and safety Nick Collins has not been set, according to Rob Demovsky of the Green Bay Press-Gazette. It is expected sometime next week.
• Packers tight end Jermichael Finley likes the gloves he can wear as part of the new Nike uniform, reveals Doug Farrar of Yahoo! Sports.
• Judd Zulgad of 1500ESPN.com wonders if the Minnesota Vikings have put coach Leslie Frazier in a spot to fail, and risk being fired, in 2012. Their offseason hasn't exactly given them a personnel jump that would allow them to improve dramatically off a 3-13 performance.
• The Vikings haven't been their usual selves off the field lately, writes Jim Souhan of the Star Tribune.
• Vikings running back Adrian Peterson has started running during his knee rehabilitation, notes Jeremy Fowler of the St. Paul Pioneer Press.
• The Vikings are hosting all of their 30 draft-eligible visits this week, notes Mark Craig of the Star Tribune.

On Monday, we learned that Detroit Lions running back Mikel Leshoure had been cited twice in the past month for marijuana possession. The second resulted in an arraignment that reportedly is scheduled to take place this week.

On Tuesday, Lions defensive tackle Nick Fairley was arrested and charged with misdemeanor marijuana possession in Mobile, Ala.

As several of you point out, that makes three members of the Lions' 2011 draft class to have marijuana-related legal problems since the end of the season. Offensive lineman Johnny Culbreath paid a fine in January after being charged with misdemeanor possession.

Typically we don't get too worked up about a misdemeanor crime. But three similar incidents in a short period of time reflect poorly on the franchise, and a statement released Tuesday afternoon implies rising concern from the team. It read: "We are aware of the incident involving Nick Fairley. We hold all of our players to a high standard of behavior and the recent charges against Nick and Mikel Leshoure are not consistent with those standards. We are extremely disappointed. We will continue to gather information and will have further comment at the appropriate time."

I don't think these incidents will impact any player's status with the organization. If Culbreath wasn't released or disciplined (publicly), then you wouldn't think that Leshoure or Fairley would. However, all three will be subject to the NFL's substance abuse program, which triggers suspensions on a second offense.

In the end, this is a collection of relatively minor offenses, at least from a legal perspective. But the timing and close proximity suggests the Lions might need a more forceful internal deterrent. To combat post-whistle penalties last season, coach Jim Schwartz instituted an infamous zero-tolerance policy. Perhaps a similar program is necessary now.

PALM BEACH, Fla. -- After surgery to repair a broken foot last summer, Detroit Lions nose tackle Nick Fairley couldn't run. He was told to stay off his feet if he watched practice. So with nothing better to do, he hit the weight room with a vengeance.

Over the next two months or so, according to Lions coach Jim Schwartz, Fairley packed an additional 18 pounds of weight on this frame. Speaking Wednesday at the NFC coaches breakfast, Schwartz said it was muscle, not the result of inactivity, and used it as an illustration of the kind of drive outside observers might not have seen in him last season.

"It's very difficult to gain a high ratio of muscle," Schwartz said. "And he did it."

We've spent plenty of time discussing the Lions' successful effort to keep their core together this offseason. But I would imagine they're no less excited about the prospects of a full and healthy season from Fairley, their first-round draft pick last year. Fairley pushed himself through 10 regular-season games after his foot healed, but provided only glimpses of what the Lions hope they'll get regularly in 2012.

A perfect example: Fairley started the Lions' Week 13 game against the New Orleans Saints. In 17 plays, he had four tackles, including two for a loss, and one sack against the Saints' pair of All-Pro guards, Carl Nicks and Jahri Evans. But soreness in the foot forced him to the sideline thereafter.

"I think that was probably our best glimpse of him," Schwartz said. "But he did something just about every day in practice that makes you turn your head and say, 'Holy Mackeral.' There's a big difference between being healed from the standpoint that he wasn't going to go out and break his foot again and re-injure, and being completely healed. …

"There's going to be some residuals from that. The good news is in my experience in players that have had those in the past, you get through a season and then it's behind you."

Thanks to everyone who responded to the mailbag request this week. Keep in mind that the best mailbag questions, at least in the mind of the person choosing said questions for publication, have cross-division appeal and usually range in scope beyond simple fact-finding. (Boooring!) Remember, we also tend to have impromptu Q&As on Twitter (@espn_nfcnblog) and on our ranging Facebook page (Kevin Seifert Espn), complete with an awesomely new cover photograph.

Onward…

In his usual diplomatic style, Ben of Denver notes our post on the Minnesota Vikings' plans for the No. 3 overall pick and writes: So I just want to be sure, you would rather have Christian Ponder over Robert Griffin III? (Andrew Luck is going to Indy). The guy who was the best pick in the draft simply because he was a QB taken in the first round, that's the guy you would rather have? Your blind love and endless defense of Ponder since that absurd proclamation entered your mind has been truly funny over the past nearly a full year now, but it has to end. Please.

Kevin Seifert: Shortly after the 2011 draft, I did in fact nominate Ponder as the best pick an NFC North team made. I thought at the time that the Vikings had no choice but to begin the process of finding their next quarterback, and I didn't agree with the idea that they should have waited for a future draft to take a higher-rated prospect. When you're talking about the quarterback position, you throw out conventional draft wisdom if you think you can get someone who can be a consistent starter.

I still think the Vikings made the right decision, but I also have written that Ponder's rookie season was the most disappointing in the division. He'll have an entire offseason to get himself straight and demonstrate why the Vikings went the route they did.

Whether I would pick Griffin this season wasn't the point of the post Ben referred to. All I've said so far is that the Vikings have offered no real indication that they'll consider Griffin, assuming Luck goes No. 1 overall. I haven't made my mind up on whether it would be wise for the Vikings to double up on quarterbacks at this moment. But I promise you, we'll get to that topic over the next few months.

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Mike of Atlanta writes: Here's a scenario I haven't really heard anyone talk about: Devin Hester is starting to get up there in years (30 this November). It seems to me that speed is one of those things that drops off faster for players than other attributes that make a player successful in the NFL. The Bears tied up Dave Toub for at least the immediate future, virtually guaranteeing a competitive special teams corps. Wouldn't now be the best time for the Bears to leverage Hester -- who has always underperformed at receiver, which is a position they need to grow at -- to a team that needs a return man, in return for a tight end or a draft pick that could bolster other positions, and use one of their mid-to-late round picks to pick up another speedster?

Kevin Seifert: You're right, Mike. No one has really mentioned that. I have to say I double-checked Hester's birthday to make sure that he will in fact turn 30 during the season. He will. His career has moved quickly.

I think what football people would tell you is that speed is only part of Hester's success. His open-field running skills, his instincts and his innate knowledge of how to set up blocks have all contributed. That's why it's reasonable to believe he'll be really effective for years to come, even if he loses the top end of his speed.

Brian Mitchell, whose return records Hester has broken, was never a speedster. He played until he was 35 years old.

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Robin of Chanhassen, Minn., writes: Any possibility the Green Bay Packers surprise us all and go after Cliff Avril?

Kevin Seifert: Any discussion on Avril presumes the Lions decide against using their franchise tag on him and aren't able to get him signed to a long-term deal before free agency opens March 13. And anything connecting the Packers to another team's veteran free agent suggests a reversal of general manager Ted Thompson's recent player acquisition habits.

With those two major caveats, Avril is an intriguing prospect because his size (260 pounds) and athletic ability suggest he could make a successful transition to outside linebacker in a 3-4 scheme. It probably makes more sense to consider him a linebacker in the Packers' scheme than thinking he might bulk up to become a true 3-4 defensive end.

NFL teams rarely allow bona fide pass rushers to reach the open market, and if Avril is available, perhaps that would be enough for Thompson to get involved. The Packers have limited salary cap space this offseason, and they already have significant money tied up in linebackers Desmond Bishop and A.J. Hawk, not to mention the looming extension they'll need to give Clay Matthews in the next year or two.

But Thompson would be well advised to give it careful thought, if nothing else, if he has the opportunity to team Matthews with a pass-rusher of Avril's accomplishments and weaken a division rival at the same time.

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John of San Diego writes: Avril: "A lot of teams don't think the Lions will let me hit free agency. But a few teams have called." Did the new CBA do away with tampering?

Kevin Seifert: John accurately pulled that quote from a Detroit Free Press story. Tampering is still against NFL rules. I guess the best way to put it is that we would all be naïve to think it doesn't occur at some level. And usually, what goes around comes around. Avril later clarified his comments to the Free Press, saying other players have heard their coaches say they would like to have a player like him.

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Dave of Ithaca, New York, writes: How much cap room do you think the Lions can realistically make in order to try and keep Avril and Stephen Tulloch around? Can they keep them both? Do you foresee any surprise cuts for guys like Corey Williams or Stephen Peterman in order to make it happen?

Kevin Seifert: At last check, the Lions were pretty close to the NFL's projected limit of $120 million for 2012. I have to admit that I don't see how the math works for them to re-sign both Avril and Stephen Tulloch, even if they are able to extend the contract of receiver Calvin Johnson and reduce his cap number for 2012. There will also have to be some combination of roster cuts/restructuring and salary cap tricks, including borrowing from future years.

Williams' name surfaces often as a possible cap casualty, mostly because he's scheduled to earn $5 million in 2012 but also because the Lions drafted a defensive tackle (Nick Fairley) in the first round last year. Williams seems a more likely candidate than Peterman.

The Detroit Lions are the biggest underdogs of wild-card weekend. The New Orleans Saints were 11-point favorites at last check. The game shapes up on paper as an epic shootout, and on Wednesday we discussed the circumstances that must occur for the Lions to pull off the upset in that scenario.

Namely, they will have to pressure quarterback Drew Brees with their vaunted front-four pass-rushers -- and force a turnover or two, as well. Thursday morning, my friend Jeff Duncan of the (New Orleans) Times-Picayune illustrated just how difficult that will be.

As Duncan writes, the Saints have the best tandem of guards in the NFL. Jahri Evans and Carl Nicks were both named to the 2011 Pro Bowl, giving Lions defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh and his interior teammates the most formidable set of opponents imaginable. Evans and Nicks helped limit opponents to a total of five sacks over the Saints' final eight games, and no NFL team allowed fewer sacks per pass attempt than the Saints this season (3.63 percent).

Suh was suspended for the teams' Week 13 meeting, when the Lions managed to put Brees under duress on only three of his 38 dropbacks. Rookie defensive tackle Nick Fairley did most of that damage; Fairley had the Lions' only sack before departing because of a sore foot.

Perhaps Fairley can reprise his success Saturday night. But this is more about Suh, who was left off of the NFC's Pro Bowl roster after an inconsistent sophomore season. In most cases, teams advance in the playoffs because their top players rise up and carry them. The Lions need their best players, including Suh, to make an elite impact Saturday night. If the best two guards in the NFL swallow him up, as they have many other opponents this season, it's hard to imagine the Lions having a chance.

I'm charging my laptop batteries, packing extra notebooks, carbo-loading and hydrating. I hope you are as well. In three days, the Detroit Lions will visit the Superdome for what could go down as one of the wildest playoff games in recent NFL history.

It was only a few years ago when NFC North fans watched the Green Bay Packers and Arizona Cardinals combine for an NFL-record 96 points in a wild-card playoff game at University of Phoenix Stadium. Saturday night's matchup between the Lions and New Orleans Saints has the same kind of feel, forcing us to recalibrate our usual pregame questions. It's not worth discussing whether one of the defenses can stop the opposing offense. No, the issue is which defense has a better chance to slow down the scoring.

After all, the Saints (34.2 points per game) and the Lions (29.6) are two of the NFL's four highest-scoring teams. The starting quarterbacks, Drew Brees for the Saints and the Lions' Matthew Stafford, combined to throw for 10,514 yards this season, the highest collective total for a playoff matchup in league history. And for what it's worth, the 59-point over/under for this game, as established in Las Vegas, is the highest in NFL playoff history, according to R.J. Bell via ESPN's sports gambling blog.

Players on both teams have downplayed the possibility of a shootout, motivated by humility or pride, depending on the circumstance. Brees said: "It seems like, typically, when you get weeks like this where everybody's hyping up one side of the ball or the other, and kind of predicting it to be a shootout or whatever, the defenses are off kind of quietly in the corner making sure they come out with their best performance and they take that as motivation."

Lions defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh agreed. "I don't plan on anybody shooting our defense out," he told reporters in Detroit.

Convenient or otherwise, Lions coach Jim Schwartz probably best captured the essence of this matchup.

"I think that the best defenses allow one less point than their offense scores," Schwartz said. "I think we need to take more of a chess approach. Nobody cares in chess how many pawns you give up or if you sacrifice your queen. They care about if you win the game, whether you get checkmate or not. And I think that's the only thing that’s important, not stats."

So from our perspective, the question is whether the Lions can win a shootout at the Superdome. We've already discussed the Saints' options for slowing down Stafford. Now it's fair to ask to what extent the Lions' defense can check Brees, who has led the Saints to a frightening average of 41.1 points and 492.6 yards in their eight home games this season.

The Lions "limited" the Saints to 31 points in the teams' Week 13 matchup, which was actually the Saints' second-lowest point total of the season at home. And three defensive starters who missed that game -- Suh, cornerback Chris Houston and safety Louis Delmas -- are expected to be in the lineup Saturday night.

Those factors give the Lions some reason for optimism. But let's also acknowledge that their defense started a second-half slip even before Suh's two-game suspension and the knee injuries to Houston and Delmas on Thanksgiving. Since Week 10, as the first chart shows, the Lions have given up more points and yards than all but two teams.

We can surely attribute some of that production to their fluid personnel situation, but at the very least we must note that the Lions' defense is trending the wrong way as it enters the playoffs. With that said, there are at least two areas where the Lions could make some headway against Brees: With an overwhelming four-man pass rush and by creating turnovers. Let's look at each.

As we've discussed many times, the Lions relied heavily on standard pass rushes this season. They sent an extra rusher on only 21.1 percent of opponents' dropbacks, the fourth-lowest rate in the NFL, according to ESPN Stats & Information. That strategy makes perfect sense with a defensive line that includes Suh, Cliff Avril (11 sacks), Kyle Vanden Bosch (eight), Lawrence Jackson (4.5) and even rookie Nick Fairley (one).

The Lions stayed with that strategy against the Saints last month, even with Suh and Jackson sidelined and after Fairley departed early because of a foot injury. As the second chart shows, Brees torched the Lions' standard pass rush in that game and he has done the same when other opponents have tried to stop him with maximum coverage as well. In fact, according to ESPN Stats & Information, the Lions had Brees under duress on only three of his 38 dropbacks, as defined by forcing the quarterback to move or alter his throwing motion because of pressure.

But most NFL teams don't have the frontline that the Lions will boast Saturday; in addition to Suh, Jackson and Fairley are also expected to be available. It's reasonable to think the Lions are capable of putting more pressure on Brees than he has seen from most four-man pass rushes this season.

If that's the case, the Lions' pressure could dovetail to our second point. Brees committed 15 turnovers this season, 14 via interception to go with one fumble. Five of those turnovers came in losses to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and St. Louis Rams.

Despite their second-half defensive struggles, the Lions forced 34 turnovers this season -- a figure higher than all but two NFL teams. In a back-and-forth shootout, even one takeaway could make a dramatic difference by stopping a Saints drive and giving the Lions' offense an extra possession.

The Saints have the NFL's most prolific quarterback and have been unbeatable at the Superdome this season. There's a reason the Lions are 11-point underdogs in this game. It might not be likely or realistic, but there is a path the Lions could follow to victory Saturday night. It's narrow and would require a reversal of some extended trends. But in a shootout, anything can happen.

» NFC Wrap-ups: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Arrow indicates direction team is trending.

Final Power Ranking: 8
Preseason Power Ranking: 16

Biggest surprise: The Lions didn't think enough of tailback Kevin Smith to offer him a contract this summer. They had drafted bruising tailback Mikel Leshoure in the second round and planned to pair him with 2010 first-rounder Jahvid Best. Smith went home, worked out and waited by the telephone. Leshoure ruptured his Achilles tendon in training camp, Best was sidelined by a pair of concussions and the Lions brought Smith in for a look-see during their bye week. They signed him on Nov. 7, he made his season debut six days later and has provided the Lions a credible backfield presence ever since. Smith produced 535 yards from scrimmage, scored seven touchdowns and is expected to start Saturday night's wild-card playoff game at the New Orleans Saints. I'm not sure that many people thought any of that was possible five months ago.

Biggest disappointment: Defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh appeared set for superstardom after a rookie season that included 10 sacks, a Pro Bowl invitation and first-team All-Pro nod. He was one of the NFL's most visible public pitchmen during the offseason, appearing in television commercials and countless national interviews. But Suh ended his second season in a much different place, thanks to a year-long debate on his aggressive play and a poorly-timed stomp of Green Bay Packers guard Evan Dietrich-Smith on Thanksgiving Day. Worse, Suh's play slipped and he finished the season with four sacks and 36 tackles. You can't always judge a defensive tackle by such statistics, but Suh's peers limited him to alternate status in Pro Bowl balloting. Suh has some on- and off-field repair work to do this offseason.

Biggest need: Smith's emergence aside, the Lions will have to take a hard look at their backfield this offseason. Best's history of concussions will make it difficult to depend on him for the long term. Early indications are that Leshoure will be ready for training camp, but he suffered a serious injury that will at least need to be tested before he can be considered a reliable contributor. So will the Lions prioritize this position for the third consecutive offseason? It's not out of the question. Meanwhile, general manager Martin Mayhew and coach Jim Schwartz will have to take a hard look at left tackle, where veteran Jeff Backus is headed for unrestricted free agency. Will they try to ride Backus, 34, for a few more years? Or do they look for his replacement?

Team MVP: Calvin Johnson had one of the best seasons for a receiver in NFL history, catching 96 passes for 1,681 yards and 16 touchdowns. The only receiver to match that across-the-board production in a single season was Randy Moss for the Minnesota Vikings in 2003. But Johnson needed someone to feed him the ball, and Matthew Stafford elevated himself into the upper tier of NFL quarterbacks with a monster season that was more responsible for the Lions' success than any other single factor. A late-season surge pushed Stafford to a stunning 5,038 passing yards, fourth-most in NFL history. Most important, he started all 16 games and was the calm backbone behind four comebacks from deficits of at least 13 points.

Breakout: The least-discussed member of the Lions' starting defensive line might have had the best season of them all. Left end Cliff Avril finished with 11 sacks, forced six fumbles and scored two defensive touchdowns on returns. A pending unrestricted free agent, Avril made himself some money -- from the Lions or someone else -- this season. The Lions would surely like to have him back but have a fair amount of money tied up in their defensive line, from Suh to 2011 first-rounder Nick Fairley to veteran defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch.

Checking in on Thursday's newsbits in the NFC North:

Chicago Bears: Tight end Kellen Davis (back) and defensive end Julius Peppers (not injury related) returned to practice Thursday. Still missing were linebacker Lance Briggs (ankle), running back Marion Barber (calf) and kick returner/receiver Devin Hester (ankle). None have been ruled out for Sunday's game at Lambeau Field.

Detroit Lions: Cornerback Don Carey (concussion), safety Louis Delmas (knee), defensive tackle Nick Fairley (foot), defensive tackle Corey Williams (hip) and defensive end Willie Young (ankle) all missed practice. The Lions re-signed cornerback Brandon McDonald to bolster their depth as Carey's concussion lingers.

Green Bay Packers: Running backs James Starks (ankle) and Brandon Saine (concussion) participated fully in practice and should be ready to play Sunday night. Linebacker Desmond Bishop (calf) and offensive lineman Chad Clifton (hamstring/back) made it through their second consecutive day of practice. Defensive lineman Howard Green (foot) was limited in practice. Defensive end Ryan Pickett (concussion) has still not been cleared.

Minnesota Vikings: The decision by USC quarterback Matt Barkley to return to school could have an indirect impact on the Vikings. If the Vikings ultimately want to trade down from their perch atop the first round, it would have helped to have another blue-chip quarterback to increase the value of their pick. Meanwhile, cornerback Asher Allen and guard Steve Hutchinson (concussion) missed practice for the second consecutive day.

Getting inside the NFC North's Friday injury report:

Chicago Bears: Receiver Devin Hester tweaked his ankle this week and is questionable for Sunday's game against the Seattle Seahawks. Defensive lineman Henry Melton (shin) is also questionable and unlikely to play.

Detroit Lions: Cornerback Aaron Berry (shoulder) and defensive end Lawrence Jackson (thigh) are doubtful and not expected to play Sunday at the Oakland Raiders. Safety Louis Delmas (knee) is questionable, but his status is less clear. Also questionable are linebacker Justin Durant (hamstring), defensive lineman Nick Fairley (foot), running back Kevin Smith (ankle) and cornerback Eric Wright (hamstring). Smith and Wright seem to have decent chances to play. Cornerback Chris Houston (knee) is probable and should play.

Green Bay Packers: The Packers ruled out defensive lineman Ryan Pickett (concussion), and won't take him on their trip to the Kansas City Chiefs this weekend. Linebacker Desmond Bishop (calf) was also ruled out, but linebacker A.J. Hawk (calf) is probable. The Packers will make game-time decisions on two running backs: James Starks (ankle) and Brandon Saine (concussion). If neither can play, the Packers will go with Ryan Grant and John Kuhn as their running backs for Sunday's game. Guard Josh Sitton (knee) appears to be a go, but is technically listed as questionable. Meanwhile, the Chiefs confirmed that Kyle Orton will start at quarterback for them, his second start against the Packers this season. Orton also started in Week 4 while playing for the Denver Broncos.

Minnesota Vikings: Every player on the 53-man roster, except cornerback Chris Cook, will be available for Sunday's game against the New Orleans Saints. That includes running back Adrian Peterson, who has missed three consecutive games because of a high ankle sprain. Coach Leslie Frazier said that Peterson's snaps could be limited depending on soreness.

Sifting through Thursday's news bits:

Chicago Bears: There were two big news stories Thursday at Halas Hall. We've covered the arrest of receiver Sam Hurd. We should also note that running back Marion Barber conducted an interview with two reporters Thursday. Via the Chicago Sun-Times, this is what Barber had to say about his late-game mistakes last Sunday in Denver: "My thoughts on it is getting to this next week and just preparing as much as I can to be ready for this game of course."

Detroit Lions: It's going to be tough for safety Louis Delmas (knee), cornerback Aaron Berry (shoulder), linebacker Justin Durant (hamstring) and defensive lineman Nick Fairley (foot) to play Sunday at the Oakland Raiders. All missed practice Thursday for the second consecutive day. Cornerback Eric Wright (hamstring) also missed practice. Cornerback Chris Houston (knee) was again a limited participant, and running back Kevin Smith (ankle) also got some practice work in.

Green Bay Packers: The Packers had no changes in their injury report. Running back James Starks (ankle), defensive lineman Ryan Pickett (concussion) and running back Brandon Saine (concussion) all sat out practice. Guard Josh Sitton was a limited participant for a second consecutive day.

Minnesota Vikings: Things continue to look good for tailback Adrian Peterson (ankle) to return after a three-game absence. Peterson told reporters Thursday that he will play Sunday against the New Orleans Saints. Receiver Greg Camarillo (concussion) returned to practice Thursday, and it appears the Vikings will have all players available for Sunday's game.