NFC North: Tarvaris Jackson

PALM BEACH, Fla. -- The Green Bay Packers have received the maximum number of extra draft picks available to teams through the NFL's compensatory draft program, while the Minnesota Vikings have received two.

That's our local upshot of Monday's always-anticipated announcement of compensatory draft picks. The Packers got four extra picks and will now have 12 in next month's draft, while the Vikings will have a total of 10. Neither the Chicago Bears nor the Detroit Lions were expected to receive a compensatory pick.

The NFL doesn't reveal its exact formula for determining the extra picks, but in essence it's based on the difference in value between the free agents a team loses and the ones it signs the previous year. In 2011, the Packers bid farewell to free agents Daryn Colledge, Brandon Jackson and Cullen Jenkins, among others, and did not sign a significant free agent of their own.

The formula granted the Packers two fourth-round picks and two additional seventh-rounders. The Packers' total of 12 picks includes three in the fourth round and four in the seventh.

Meanwhile, the Vikings received two fourth-round picks, No. 33 and No. 39 in the round, after losing receiver Sidney Rice, quarterback Tarvaris Jackson and defensive end Ray Edwards in 2011. They signed nose tackle Remi Ayodele, but he made little impact.
If you're a fan of quarterback Matt Flynn, you should have been happy to see him sign Sunday with the Seattle Seahawks. As we discussed earlier this month, the Seahawks were one of the two most-favorable destinations for a quarterback of Flynn's background, along with the Miami Dolphins.

In Seattle, Flynn will be dropped into a West coast offense not dissimilar from what he ran with the Green Bay Packers. He'll have a legitimate No. 1 receiver in Sidney Rice, presuming Rice's good health moving forward, and he'll be playing behind an offensive line the Seahawks have been working hard to improve.

If you're a Packers fan, you're looking at the three-year contract Flynn signed and wondering if it's going to scale back the value of the compensatory draft pick(s) the Packers receive in the 2013 draft for his departure. The deal is worth between $19 million and $26 million, according to Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and ESPN's Adam Schefter, and includes $10 million in guarantees.

The NFL does not reveal how it computes compensatory draft picks, but generally speaking, it's based on the net difference between free agents lost and signed. The value on each side is determined by the size of the contracts signed and the playing time/performance of the player the following year, among other criteria.

To make a long story somewhat short, Flynn's deal means it's possible the Packers' highest compensatory draft pick in 2013 will be a fourth-rounder, not a third-rounder as previously projected. We'll find out in March 2013.

One thing the contract does tell us: The Packers made the right decision in declining to place the franchise tag on Flynn. He spent six days on the free agent market and ultimately signed a contract that fell short of what most unquestioned veteran starters are paid. Seahawks coach Pete Carroll said Sunday that Flynn will compete with Tarvaris Jackson for the starting job.

Almost certainly, then, the Packers wouldn't have been able to talk a team into giving up a draft pick higher than what they'll ultimately get next season in the compensatory process.

Back with you Monday, barring further news this evening.

Free Head Exam: Chicago Bears

December, 19, 2011
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After the Chicago Bears' 38-14 loss to the Seattle Seahawks, here are three issues that merit further examination:
    Head ExamKevin SeifertFollowing their loss against the Seahawks, the Bears take a seat in the examination room.
  1. Generally, I'm not in favor of promoting untested players solely for the purpose of evaluation. There should be a justifiable reason for getting that player on the field. None of us have seen rookie quarterback Nathan Enderle in practice, or for that matter veteran Josh McCown. So we can't say that either player has demonstrated a capacity for better performance than current starter Caleb Hanie. On the other hand, prolonging failure based on the perceived lack of a better option isn't healthy, either. So after watching Hanie flail for a full four games, I think it would be reasonable to consider other options. And even though the Bears are still technically in the playoff race, it would be incredibly short-sighted to start McCown against the Green Bay Packers next Sunday night. McCown is the shortest of short-term backups. Hanie might have played himself off the 2012 roster, and Enderle's pedigree as a fifth-round draft choice suggests he should be in the mix for the No. 2 role. McCown is not, but he could always rescue Enderle if the rookie proves to be in over his head.
  2. If you're an eternal optimist, you could use ESPN.com's Playoff Machine to find how the Bears could still make the playoffs. First, they would have to defeat both the Packers and Minnesota Vikings, on the road, without running back Matt Forte and receiver Johnny Knox and, probably, quarterback Jay Cutler. Then they would need the Atlanta Falcons and Detroit Lions to lose their remaining games, and then hope to win some tiebreakers with the remaining field. The biggest obstacle would be finishing 2-0 themselves. They've lost four consecutive games in increasingly uncompetitive fashion and, as Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune points out, they've scored two offensive touchdowns in the past 188 minutes.
  3. Lost in this four-game losing streak has been defensive end Julius Peppers' return to the double-digit sack club after a one-year absence. His sack/forced fumble in the end zone of Seahawks quarterback Tarvaris Jackson led to an Israel Idonije touchdown. Playing on a gimpy knee for much of the season, Peppers has 10 sacks, four pass knockdowns and three forced fumbles in 14 games. I have no idea how the voters will stack them for the Associated Press All-Pro team, but I would imagine Peppers is in the conversation for being one of the two defensive ends on the first team once again.
And here is one thing I still don't get:
Hanie has been with the organization for four years under two offensive coordinators. Did the Bears miss that badly on their evaluation of him? Has he choked under the pressure? Or is it a combination thereof? I realize Hanie didn't have much regular-season experience when he took over for Cutler, and not all of his mistakes have solely been his fault. But can you see any measure of improvement from his first start to his fourth? Me either. Progress is a fair expectation for a player who has spent nearly four years on an NFL roster. Even some rookies would have pulled the ball down upon finding Seahawks linebacker K.J. Wright closing in for a sack. Instead, Hanie inexplicably threw into the hands of defensive end Red Bryant for what turned out to be a touchdown. It's too bad, because Hanie is one of the nicest people in the Bears' locker room and someone who seemed to have received a career-changing break when Cutler was injured. Instead, it could be a career-ender.

On Donovan McNabb and Sage Rosenfels

December, 2, 2011
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Friday's waiver wire brought some interesting news to the NFC North. Former Minnesota Vikings quarterback Donovan McNabb went unclaimed amid reports that the Chicago Bears have no interest in him at this point. But veteran Sage Rosenfels will be returning to Minnesota after the Vikings claimed him off waivers from the Dolphins.

McNabb
Rosenfels
First, on McNabb and the Bears: We noted Thursday that McNabb grew up in Chicago and might be a better option in an emergency than current third-stringer Josh McCown. But the Bears did not place a claim on him, and ESPN's Chris Mortensen reported they do not plan to pursue him via free agency, either. Regardless, the Vikings are now on the hook for what remains of McNabb's $5.05 million base salary.

The Vikings, however, busily spent Friday attempting to replenish their quarterback depth. They tried to sign second-year player John Parker Wilson off the Atlanta Falcons' practice squad, according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, but Wilson chose the Falcons' offer to join their 53-man roster instead. Then, they claimed Rosenfels to resume a long-running relationship with Vikings vice president of player personnel Rick Spielman.

Spielman acquired Rosenfels in 2002 for the Miami Dolphins and again in 2009 for the Vikings. Former Vikings coach Brad Childress never wanted Rosenfels on the roster, however, and won an internal battle in 2010 to make Tarvaris Jackson the backup to Brett Favre.

Rosenfels, 33, has been ill for most of this season because of complications from strep throat, prompting first his release from the New York Giants and later the Dolphins. He presumably is healthy now and will spend the remainder of the season as a backup to rookie Christian Ponder, while also providing roster flexibility if the Vikings want to use second-year quarterback Joe Webb as a receiver.

Rosenfels' contract will expire after the season, but I'm sure he will return as the Vikings' 2012 backup if it's up to Spielman. In truth, they could do a lot worse.

Have at It: Greg Olsen's impact

October, 8, 2011
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Your conversation on the NFC North's most significant player departure centered mostly around three players: Defensive lineman Cullen Jenkins, receiver Sidney Rice and tight end Greg Olsen.

A few other names surfaced, including linebacker Nick Barnett and center Olin Kreutz. But Barnett in essence departed midway through last season, replaced more than capably by Desmond Bishop, and it's hard to argue that the Chicago Bears offensive line is in worse shape without Kreutz than it was when it contributed to 56 sacks with him last season.

Jenkins is an interesting case. He was not a full-time player last season, starting eight games, but none of you have forgotten his seven sacks and the apparent impact it had on the Green Bay Packers' No. 1 pass defense (based on opponents' passer rating). This season, the Packers' pass rush has been limited and opponents have the NFL's 15th-best passer rating against Green Bay's defense.

Mavajo wrote Jenkins is "the only key difference between this year and last year. … You gotta put 2+2 together and figure that's why." Added tearloch:

"I will say that last year the Packer D was noticeably better with Jenkins in the lineup as opposed to without him, especially on run D. This year, with the big leads they have had for most of the games, the run D, IMO, has been artificial inflated by minimum attempts against, much like the end of last year (playoff run). It will be interesting to see how the GB run D holds up when truly tested. I think Jenkins is sorely missed in GB. His replacements are doing an OK job, but Jenkins was a really good player, but his age and injury history, as well as contract demands, made him expendable."

Jenkins has four sacks in four games this season for the Philadelphia Eagles. Rice, on the other hand, has piled up 188 receiving yards in two games with the Seattle Seahawks. Biglamb7474 thinks Rice is "the obvious choice" and added that the Minnesota Vikings have been forced to make Percy Harvin their No. 1 receiver "even though his talents are much more emphasized in the two spot."

Biglamb7474 added: "The loss of Rice also gave an already declining [quarterback Donovan] McNabb even that much less to work with. ... I mean, did the Vikings even once pay attention to what happened in Washington last year when McNabb was inserted into an offense with a mediocre receiving corps at best? Rice is a big and fast sure-handed receiver in a league that has transformed into one in which defense is becoming less important and elite offenses (particularly the air attack) are essential."

Wrote severs28: "They have no one to stretch the field right now, and when healthy, Sidney Rice is a premier wide receiver. I mean, he has better stats in two games than any Vikings receiver through four? And it's not like he went to New England or Green Bay. Seattle has a terrible o-line, and Tarvaris [Jackson] as a QB. He would have at least those numbers for Minnesota."

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Greg Olsen
Mark J. Rebilas/US PresswireGreg Olsen has re-established himself as a downfield threat with Carolina.
Meanwhile, the Chicago Bears' decision to trade Olsen to the Carolina Panthers generated more debate than I thought it would. Tearloch wrote: "Olsen's trade was not a good move, IMO. However, I don't think it is fair to compare his production in Carolina to what the current Bears are doing. Even if Olsen was still a Bear, I don't think his production would be any better than what the current Bears players are doing. It is still [offensive coordinator Mike] Martz running the show, and he does not care for TEs, regardless of their talent. "

Added DaBearz84: " Olsen is not as missed as Kevin would like us to believe. The reason that no one on the Bears team has more then 12 receptions is because [quarterback Jay ]Cutler can't get enough time to throw the damn ball."

On the other hand, Jveyron19 thinks Olsen was "the biggest loss from a 'team' aspect" because the Packers "have enough playmakers to fill in the gap that Jenkins pass rush."

My take? I agree that Olsen wouldn't have the same numbers with the Bears that he does with the Panthers. But to me, that's a big problem.

I don't think pass protection alone is to blame for the Bears' anemic pass offense thus far. Let's just say that Cutler doesn't always have a bevy of open receivers to choose from. Olsen has re-established himself as a downfield threat, as well as a sure-handed check-down receiver, and if used properly would absolutely help alleviate some of the Bears' issues.

The Bears traded Olsen rather than require Martz to find a way to incorporate him into his offense. Given what he could have offered them, and the mess he's left behind to this point, I think that makes his departure the most significant thus far in the NFC North.

Face it: Sidney Rice wanted out

July, 27, 2011
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I wish I could put my finger on it. For more than a year, something has been off between the Minnesota Vikings and Sidney Rice.

A frost began developing after the 2009 NFC Championship Game, during which Rice suffered a hip injury that eventually required major surgery. It never thawed, and for that reason it came as no surprise Wednesday night when Rice agreed to terms on a free agent contract with the Seattle Seahawks. ESPN's Adam Schefter reported the deal includes $18.5 million in guarantees.

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Sidney Rice
Bruce Kluckhohn/US PresswireIt looks like Sidney Rice was eager to leave the Minnesota Vikings.
Like all other contracts, the agreement is pending a physical. Rice's will be a little more important than most; microfracture surgery on a hip is no small procedure. I know for a fact the Vikings were concerned about the long-term implications, and I can make an educated guess that Rice resented that concern, even after the injury caused him to miss more than half of the 2010 season. That injury played a big role in the Vikings deciding against a contract before the 2010 season. No player likes to hear such news.

At some point, I also think Rice also grew weary of thinly veiled implications last season from former coach Brad Childress, who questioned the timing of Rice's decision to have surgery and later suggested Rice wasn't as eager to return from rehabilitation as he should have. Rice eventually wrote a blog post for his personal website with this headline: "A Bunch of Bull."

Anytime a player feels compelled to respond to "A Bunch of Bull," it's fair to question whether he will look for a fresh start as soon as the opportunity arose.

The new collective bargaining agreement gave Rice a chance this summer, making him an unrestricted free agent. Despite the hip issue, he is only one year removed from an 83-catch Pro Bowl season and was sure to generate interest. The Vikings have a new offensive staff and a new head coach in Leslie Frazier who wanted him back, but it appears the damage was done.

I don't know what other team, if any, was in pursuit. But it only takes one to make a deal, and Rice eagerly jumped into an offense that is unsettled at best. Former Vikings offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell will install a version of the West Coast scheme possibly with former Vikings quarterback Tarvaris Jackson behind center. Former Oakland Raiders coach Tom Cable, meanwhile, has been hired to reshape the offensive line.

Free agent receivers usually take into account a suitor's stability at quarterback, and the Seahawks appear to be in transition. That should tell you how hot Rice was for a change of scenery. Not even the Vikings' pursuit of quarterback Donovan McNabb was enough to change Rice's mind.

NFC North defensive coordinators no doubt are breathing a sigh of relief. When healthy, Rice is nearly impossible to defend when the ball is in the air. He is 6-foot-4, has long arms and excellent ball skills. In 2009, quarterback Brett Favre quickly learned to trust that Rice could consistently outfight smaller defenders for the ball, no matter how closely he was covered.

As we discussed Tuesday, the Vikings will now rely on Percy Harvin as a quasi-No. 1 receiver. Veteran Bernard Berrian, whose future has been in doubt, said via Twitter that he has been given a playbook. For now, it appears he will remain with the Vikings.

Still, I think the Vikings are going to have to make a deal, via trade or free agency, for a veteran receiver at some point. I've heard some names, but nothing is confirmed. Stay tuned on that one.
One final free agent update before we call it a night. (Probably.) ESPN's Adam Schefter reports the Minnesota Vikings and Seattle Seahawks are in a bidding war for free agent Sidney Rice.

Rice
Rice
As we've discussed all along, Rice was intent on testing his value on the open market. It's interesting that he's talking to a pair of teams whose quarterback situation is far from unsettled.

The Seahawks won't bring back Matt Hasselbeck and instead will have a competition between Charlie Whitehurst, Tarvaris Jackson and Matt Leinart. The Vikings drafted rookie Christian Ponder, but are attempting to acquire veteran Donovan McNabb from the Washington Redskins.

It's not clear if other teams will get involved or if Rice has narrowed his options to the Vikings and Seahawks. From an NFC North perspective, this news tells us that the Vikings at the very least have not given up the possibility of bringing Rice back even though they couldn't re-sign him before the lockout began.

Scramble '11: Day 1 thoughts

July, 26, 2011
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I'm continuing to get my head around the Minnesota Vikings' reported pursuit of quarterback Donovan McNabb, which to this point qualifies as the biggest NFC North development on Day 1 of the 2011 free-agent market. We've also discussed issues from Matthew Stafford's swagger to Aaron Rodgers' free-agent wish list, and I'm sure there will be much more to come.

McNabb
McNabb
For now, let's review in rapid-fire fashion a number of other developments that merit comment but maybe not their own blog post:

Item: Former Vikings quarterback Tarvaris Jackson agreed to terms with the Seattle Seahawks, where he will reunite with offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell.
Comment: Someone in the Seahawks' building clearly wants someone else to win the starting job, be it Charlie Whitehurst or Matt Leinart. As much as I respect Jackson as a person, I don't see him as an NFL starter -- and neither do many other people in the league.

Item: The Vikings agreed to terms receiver Devin Aromashodu, formerly of the Chicago Bears, to a one-year contract.
Comment: Aromashodu isn't a possible replacement for Sidney Rice or even Bernard Berrian, should he be released. Aromashodu remains an intriguing big target who had a career game against the Vikings in 2009, catching seven passes for 150 yards and a game-winning touchdown. Opponents don't forget games like that.

Item: Free agent receiver Santana Moss agreed to terms with the Washington Redskins.
Comment: Send your condolences to Bears receiver Devin Hester, who publicly lobbied the team to sign Moss.

Item: The Bears have interest in free-agent receiver Brad Smith, according to a report by ESPNChicago.com's Michael C. Wright.
Comment: Smith offers a bigger look than the rest of the Bears' receivers and could also return kickoffs following the expected departure of Danieal Manning. Bring him on.

Item: The Bears want free-agent linebacker Nick Roach to return as a backup, according to a report by ESPNChicago.com's Jeff Dickerson.
Comment: That means the Bears still need a starter at strong-side linebacker. They are interested in Jacksonville Jaguars linebacker Justin Durant, according to a ESPNChicago.com report.

Item: The Detroit Lions will release receiver Bryant Johnson, according to report by Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press.
Comment: It wouldn't have made sense to bring Johnson to training camp after drafting Titus Young as the likely No. 3 receiver. That gives a player many of you have asked about, Derrick Williams, a fighting chance to make the team as a No. 4 receiver.

Item: The Vikings have told defensive tackle Jimmy Kennedy he won't return in 2011, according to Kennedy's Twitter feed.
Comment: Cross off another candidate to start at defensive tackle if free agent Pat Williams signs elsewhere and during Kevin Williams' expected four-game suspension.

Item: The Bears are the only NFC North team to release a list of undrafted free agents they have signed.
Comment: All 26 names are published over at ESPNChicago.com for your enjoyment.

Item: And today will be better than yesterday.
Comment: That's my friend Buster Olney's signature blog sign-off. I like it.
Identifying connections is a good start in predicting NFL player movement.

The next step is evaluating that connection.

Jackson
Jackson
That thought came to mind recently while reading once again about the Seattle Seahawks' apparent interest in Minnesota Vikings quarterback Tarvaris Jackson, a pending free agent who is not expected to return.

ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer first began discussing Jackson's name last month. It makes sense considering Seahawks offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell held the same role with the Vikings during Jackson's entire tenure. Tom Pelissero of 1500ESPN.com, meanwhile, reported the Seahawks have done their "due diligence" on Jackson.

No current NFL coach has more background with Jackson than Bevell. Former head coach Brad Childress is out of the game as of the moment, and former Vikings quarterbacks coach Kevin Rogers is now the offensive coordinator at Boston College.

But we shouldn't assume that Bevell's familiarity would compel him to lobby for Jackson in Seattle. Childress was Jackson's champion in Minnesota, and Bevell above all else is a loyal soldier. In 2008 and 2010, relatively minor injuries prevented Jackson from starting games and required Bevell to find other alternatives. If you were an NFL coordinator, would that history move you to continue the relationship?

For argument's sake, let's say Bevell would be on board. We should still consider a bigger question: What about Seahawks general manager John Schneider?

Remember, Schneider was a member of the Green Bay Packers' front office during Jackson's first four seasons in Minnesota. One of Schneider's jobs was to evaluate Packers opponents. I have not asked Schneider his thoughts on Jackson, and discussing free agency on any level during the lockout is strictly forbidden. But if you were an NFC North evaluator and studied Jackson's game film with the Vikings, would you be eager to sign him as a free agent?

I'm not saying the Seahawks will ignore the possibility of signing Jackson. And on the NFC North blog, it's mostly irrelevant. But I do think it's important to remember that connections are a two-way street. In the case of some players, more information isn't always better.
Cam NewtonAP Photo/Todd J. Van EmstDoes Cam Newton possess the leadership skills the Vikings are seeking in a franchise quarterback?
NEW ORLEANS -- As Minnesota Vikings officials arrived Sunday to the NFL owners meeting, they found themselves at about the midway point of their offseason project to draft a franchise quarterback. Vice president of player personnel Rick Spielman suggested the team will devote multiple visits to at least six quarterbacks, and coach Leslie Frazier said he is starting to get "a feel" for how the team will stack its draft board.

Through various reports, five of those quarterbacks have been revealed: Missouri's Blaine Gabbert, Auburn's Cam Newton, TCU's Andy Dalton, Washington's Jake Locker and Arkansas' Ryan Mallett.

"I'm trying to be open minded until we finish some of these private workouts," Frazier said. "But it's hard not to [get enamored midway through the process] when you watch a certain tape and go, 'Oh man, this is the guy.' Then you put on another tape and go, 'Wait a minute. This guy...' So you have to be careful and just go through the process. But each one of them, they all have good qualities of some kind. I do have to catch myself sometimes not getting biased before we finish this process."

The Vikings are using the private workouts mostly to make social observations and to give Frazier and other coaches a chance for more personal conversation that can reveal character and leadership insights. To understand how important that facet of the scouting process is, look no further than the Vikings' experience over the past four years with quarterback Tarvaris Jackson -- an excellent athlete with a rocket arm who was more comfortable in a secondary locker-room role than as a leader.

"For me," Frazier said, "the communication and getting to know them -- sometimes in their environment, sometimes if it's at the combine or if we're going to bring them to our facility -- that to me is as important as the mechanics and so on. I think we've got good people that are going to help them [in] their fundamentals and get them from a technique standpoint. But I've got to feel good that they've got the leadership qualities and can mesh with some of my thoughts on the quarterback position. My one-on-one time with them, and just being around them is as important to me as what they can do from a pro day or workouts.

"Sometimes you have to be careful about being too enamored with a pro day or that combine workout. ... So I have to have a good feel for that person. The quarterback position is unlike any other person on the team. That guy, his mental is as important as his athletic ability. More important, in a lot of ways. Good athletes at quarterback don't always become franchise quarterbacks. For us, we're looking and hoping to find a franchise quarterback. For us, that's what we're looking to find. So my time with him is as important or more important than what we see on tape."

I'm not sure if there is much to read into Frazier's comments, although it might help explain why neither he nor Spielman attended Newton's pro day. There aren't many questions about Newton's ability to throw or run; it's his football savvy and leadership abilities that the Vikings no doubt want to investigate further.

My thoughts on this situation haven't changed much since last week, when I suggested the Vikings aren't likely to have either Newton or Gabbert available to them at No. 12 overall. They'll have to decide whether they want to pay a steep price to trade up for one of them, or if they feel comfortable taking Locker at No. 12 or if they will target another quarterback lower in the draft.

I asked Frazier if he was far enough in the process to feel confident the Vikings will be able to draft one of the quarterbacks they like in this draft.

"I have a feel for it," he said. "You're guessing a little bit on what people ahead of you are going to do so you think you have a feel. But ... you know [things] can change in a hurry. All of a sudden somebody you think wasn't looking at quarterbacks jumps up to a spot and you go like, 'Uh, oh.'"

The Vikings' goal over the next five weeks? Ensuring that "uh-oh" never gets uttered in their draft room.
As we await final word on the state of the NFL's collective bargaining agreement (CBA), which appears headed into a bonus day of Friday negotiations, we have a few last-minute NFC North personnel moves to review.

Most notably, multiple media outlets are reporting the Detroit Lions decided against offering a tender contract to running back Kevin Smith, who has accrued three NFL seasons and thus would be a restricted free agent under any circumstances. It's possible the Lions could re-sign Smith at a later date, but that seems unlikely.

Smith, who was a part of Matt Millen's final draft class with the Lions, dealt with knee and shoulder injuries over the past two seasons and had been supplanted by Jahvid Best as the organization's top running back.

"I've been hurt the last two years, so to me, it was more of a business decision," Smith told Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press. "In this business, you can never be surprised. It's strictly business, and they did what they had to, and I'll do what I have to do."

The Lions have Maurice Morris and Aaron Brown on their roster behind Best, but I would think that running back will be a priority in the April draft. A few other notes:
Cameron Newton/Jake Locker/Blaine GabbertUS Presswire/Icon SMIWill the Minnesota Vikings position themselves to draft Auburn's Cam Newton, left, Washington's Jake Locker, center, or Missouri's Blaine Gabbert?
INDIANAPOLIS -- The Minnesota Vikings arrived at this week's scouting combine carrying the most intense personnel burden a team can face: They have no starting quarterback and no clear path for finding an obvious answer in the draft.

You've heard of the Scarlet Letter? In the Nathaniel Hawthorne novel, Hester Prynne is forced to wear an "A" on her chest to signify a moral crime. So let's assign our own Scarlet Letter to the Vikings for putting themselves in this position. We'll slap them with a "B." Their cupboard is Barren at the most important position in professional sports, a hole that will swallow up their new coaching staff unless it is filled quickly and creatively this offseason.

"We're going to look at all avenues at the quarterback [position]," vice president of player personnel Rick Spielman said at the NFL scouting combine, which he and his scouts are scouring for quarterback options. "... But you're hoping that by the time all the dust settles and we're getting ready to go into the season that we have that position pretty much resolved."

We've seen this act before, of course. Consider the first chart: The Vikings have been patching together this position for an extended period of their history, spanning multiple ownership regimes, personnel executives and coaching staffs.

In the 21 years since Tommy Kramer's final season, the Vikings have used 10 different primary starters. Most recently, they set themselves back with an indefensible plan to develop Tarvaris Jackson as their long-term answer. Jackson is a pending free agent and, with the departure of coach/benefactor Brad Childress, seems unlikely to return.

That leaves the Vikings with second-year player Joe Webb as the only returning player who has taken a snap with the team. Spielman said "we're very excited about what Joe Webb brings to the table," but it's hard to believe that new coach Leslie Frazier will open his first full season with a player as raw as Webb as his starter.

History has showed the Vikings can find a temporary solution. This year, it could be Donovan McNabb, Kyle Orton, Vince Young or some other passer whose previous team is willing to part ways. But more important to me is whether the Vikings will make the long-overdue plunge into planning their future at the position.

In their 50-year history, the Vikings have drafted only two quarterbacks in the first round: Kramer in 1977 and Daunte Culpepper in 1999. It only takes a look around the NFC North to realize that finding a long-term starter in the modern-day NFL usually requires a first-round commitment. That's how the Detroit Lions got Matthew Stafford (No. 1 overall). It's how the Chicago Bears acquired Jay Cutler (two first-round picks in a trade) and it's how the Green Bay Packers secured Aaron Rodgers (No. 24 overall).

Can the Vikings make a similar grab at No. 12 overall this year? Will they move up to ensure they can draft Auburn's Cam Newton or Missouri's Blaine Gabbert, both of whom will likely be off the board at No. 12? Would Washington's Jake Locker make sense at that spot? Or would the Vikings identify a second-level prospect, perhaps Florida State's Christian Ponder, and maneuver to draft him in the second or third round?

That approach is how the Vikings landed Jackson in 2006, and Childress' insistence that Jackson would develop into a permanent starter held back the team from planning for the eventual retirement of Brett Favre. My understanding is that even last year, Childress' vision was for Jackson to take over whenever Favre retired.

That position caused considerable consternation within the Vikings' front office, which under Spielman had taken a proactive approach to planning for other veteran departures. Center John Sullivan, for example, was drafted in 2008 with the intent of replacing Matt Birk. The same was true for safety Tyrell Johnson, who took over for Darren Sharper in 2009.

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Joe Webb
Jim McIsaac/Getty ImagesQuarterback Joe Webb is the only returning player who has taken a snap with the Vikings.
Never in his career had Jackson demonstrated the aptitude to be a long-term starter. So why didn't the Vikings seek a successor to Favre as they had with Birk, Sharper and others? I asked Spielman that question Thursday, fully expecting to get the answer he provided.

"We're excited to move forward on everything," Spielman said through gritted teeth.

The real answer, of course, is that Childress had amassed enough internal power to serve as the Vikings' general manager when it came to quarterbacks. He plainly disapproved of Spielman's decision to acquire Sage Rosenfels two years ago and summarily buried him on the bench. And in the previous three years, the only quarterback the Vikings drafted was USC's John David Booty, a project who didn't make it past his rookie year.

Vikings fans should feel optimistic that Frazier agrees with Spielman on the state of the position. And in truth, the first offseason of a coaching regime can and should be a seminal moment at the quarterback position.

On Thursday, I sought out Lions coach Jim Schwartz to talk about the similar position he found himself in two years ago. The Lions had the No. 1 pick, of course, but Schwartz knew he wanted to build his program around the identity of his quarterback.

"[Drafting Stafford] allowed us to select personnel," Schwartz said. "You're not spinning your wheels. If you don't have a quarterback, you're drafting maybe a different kind of running back, maybe a different kind of offensive lineman, than if you have somebody. We had Calvin Johnson. But our ability to get Jahvid Best, Nate Burleson in free agency, to draft Brandon Pettigrew. Those pieces were because of the quarterback that we have. You're probably not going to run the ball 45 times per game when you have a quarterback that you want the ball in his hands.

"So in order to make progress, in order to fit guys to where they're going to be, in order to fit guys to a job description, you need to know what that job description is going to be. Having a quarterback settles a lot of that, knowing what that quarterback can do, knowing his ability to make throws, knowing his ability to process things, those kinds of things, it's all very important.

"The quarterback is the most important position on the team, and if you're strong at that position, you can overcome weaknesses at other positions."

Injuries have prevented Stafford from establishing himself as a franchise anchor, but the point is the Lions have built their team with a clear vision based on his presence. That's something the Vikings have done only rarely in their history.

As the second chart shows, they haven't had many opportunities. The Vikings' prospects for drafting a blue-chip passer at No. 12 overall are murky at best, but years of neglect and poor evaluations have left the Vikings in an unenviable spot.

No one wants their hand forced in a draft, but the Vikings are as close as they can be to that ultimatum. We've seen how far the Band-Aid solution can take them. They won't win a championship with someone else's quarterback. Even they now realize it's time to find one of their own.

A week before the regular season began, Brett of Lima, Ohio, requested a ranking of the NFC North's backup quarterbacks. My list went this way:
  1. Shaun Hill (Detroit Lions)
  2. Todd Collins (Chicago Bears)
  3. Matt Flynn (Green Bay Packers)
  4. Tarvaris Jackson (Minnesota Vikings)

Collins didn't help me out much in his one start of the season, throwing four interceptions and completing only six passes in Week 5 against the Carolina Panthers. Otherwise, I feel pretty good about how things went. More than anything else, the 2010 season reaffirmed my belief that the Lions hit a home run when they acquired Hill from the San Francisco 49ers for a seventh-round draft pick.

Hill was forced into action far more often than the Lions had planned for, but as the chart illustrates, his performance compared favorably with other backups who were either pushed or promoted into extended duty. He gamely fought back from two significant injuries, including fractures to his left arm and a finger on his right hand, and his experience in offensive coordinator Scott Linehan's system proved valuable.

Even so, perhaps the best part about the Lions' situation is there is no question about who will take the first snap of training camp next summer. (Or next fall, depending on the impending NFL lockout.) Hill performed admirably but knows and understands his role. Matthew Stafford, who finished one of his three starts last season, is the future of the franchise.

It might sound odd, but after the kind of turnover the Lions had at quarterback in 2010, it's rare to have such clarity moving forward. It's a testament to Hill and a byproduct of the Lions' choice last March.

Vikings regular-season wrap-up

January, 5, 2011
1/05/11
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Final Power Ranking: 23
Preseason Power Ranking: 5

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Brett Favre
AP Photo/Hannah FoslienBrett Favre had the worst season of his 20-year career.
Biggest surprise: It was hard to imagine quarterback Brett Favre equaling the career year he produced in 2009. But it was just as difficult to anticipate him falling off the figurative cliff. Even before an onslaught of injuries began, Favre was playing as poorly as he had at any point in his career. In the first three games of the season, Favre threw two touchdown passes and committed seven turnovers. He had one shining moment, a career-high 446 yards against the Arizona Cardinals, but otherwise it was clear he tried to squeeze one year too many out of his body. The Vikings were left in an untenable situation. They put all of their hopes on his shoulders and had no viable alternative when it became clear he was cooked.

Biggest disappointment: Sidney Rice's unique skills as a downfield receiver were one of the primary reasons the Vikings pushed to the NFC Championship Game in 2009. But a hip injury suffered in that game followed Rice all the way to training camp, the first sign that the Vikings wouldn't carry the magic into 2010. It was never entirely clear why Rice avoided surgery until the end of August, but the bottom line is it robbed the Vikings' offense of a dynamic playmaker. It also set them on a gold chase that ultimately led to the disastrous acquisition of receiver Randy Moss. How much would have been different had Rice been healthy when training camp started? It hurts the head to wonder.

Biggest need: The Vikings haven't had a long-term plan at quarterback since Daunte Culpepper suffered a career-changing knee injury in October 2005. They tried with Tarvaris Jackson, but ultimately his slow development left them in an annual Band-Aid mode. While rookie Joe Webb displayed some promise late in the season, the Vikings need to make this position their highest priority of the offseason. Depending on who makes themselves available for the draft, the Vikings might have to acquire multiple quarterbacks -- one to start in 2011 and another to develop for future seasons.

Team MVP: The Vikings had 10 Pro Bowl players in 2009. Only two performed at the same level in 2010 -- tailback Adrian Peterson and cornerback Antoine Winfield. We'll tap Peterson for this honor after he rushed for 1,298 yards despite missing one full game and parts of two others because of injuries. He single-handedly accounted for the Week 3 victory over the Detroit Lions and, notably, lost only one fumble after an offseason of consternation about the issue.

Comeback player: While we have a moment, let's note that middle linebacker E.J. Henderson returned from a gruesome injury to start all 16 games this season. There were those who believed Henderson's career could be over when he fractured his femur in December 2009. At the very least, he wasn't expected to be ready to play until 2011. But Henderson was determined to be on the field for the first day of training camp, creating a new protocol for rehabilitating the injury. He unofficially finished with 106 tackles and a career-high three interceptions.
MINNEAPOLIS -- I guess Brett Favre feels better than he looked during pre-game warm-ups.

The Minnesota Vikings announced Favre as their starter for Monday night's game against the Chicago Bears. About 45 minutes earlier, Favre had concluded a modest throwing session in which all of his passes were under 20 yards. I don't really know how to gauge what Favre did before the game. All I can say is it was more than soft-tossing but nothing close to full velocity. Perhaps Favre threw indoors before or after, but if I'm the Bears, I would question whether he will really be able to open it up in this game.

The Vikings will need some kind of spark, however, now that tailback Adrian Peterson has been confirmed as a surprise deactivation. Coach Leslie Frazier said last week he fully expected Peterson to play despite a bruised knee suffered in a collision with quarterback Tarvaris Jackson, but Frazier also said that Favre would "definitely" not play Monday night.

We'll keep you updated. Once the game starts, be sure to join me over at Monday Night Live for our night-long chat.

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