NFC North: Third and one08

Third and one: Lions

November, 2, 2009
Nov 2
4:55
PM ET
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By Kevin Seifert
Posted by ESPN.com’s Kevin Seifert

After Detroit’s 17-10 loss to St. Louis, here are three (mostly) indisputable facts I feel relatively sure about:
  1. So the Lions lost at home to winless St. Louis, falling to 1-6. They’ve demonstrated marginally better competitive spirit than last season’s 0-16 group, so I feel alright about scanning their schedule for their next chance to win. As it turns out, we could only be three weeks away. I don’t like the Lions’ chances of winning Sunday at Seattle, where they’ve won twice in their history -- most recently in 1999. And history suggests they’ll have a tough time next week at Minnesota, where they are 0 for their last 11. But on Nov. 22, the Lions will host Cleveland at Ford Field. I’m already liking their chances.
  2. It will be interesting to see if fans start calling for Maurice Morris to take over as the primary running back after he gained 63 yards Sunday in place of a banged-up Kevin Smith. I don’t think the Lions are anywhere close to giving up on Smith, nor should they be. It’s possible his shoulder, injured earlier this season, is still bothering him. But you also wonder if he is a player who has simply made a slow transition to a new offense. The only way to get him more comfortable, both physically and mentally, is to keep playing him.
  3. I get what Dominic Raiola was feeling Sunday: Frustration at seeing another Lions quarterback absorbing heat from fans. Raiola confronted a few of them to, in his mind, protect his teammate’s back. But I don’t understand why Raiola thinks things are any different in Detroit. Fans verbally harass key players on every American professional sports team, most of whom win more often than the Lions do. It’s part of the gig if you want to be a pro athlete. Most players on most teams do the only thing they can: Ignore it. There are plenty of other ways for Raiola to protect and show support for his quarterback. Confronting fans does nothing but egg them on while demonstrating unprofessional behavior. And if Ravioli thinks that Stafford’s development could be affected by booing and razzing, then Stafford has no chance to succeed in the first place.

And here is one question I’m still asking:
Are the Lions going to look bad for using a first-round pick on tight end Brandon Pettigrew? I’m starting to get that feeling, but the jury is still out. Pettigrew might prove to be a really good NFL player, but he hasn’t had much of an immediate impact on the running or passing games. (Sunday, he had two receptions for 17 yards.) An elite tight end is a luxury the Lions might not have been ready to afford, especially as this season continues to reveal their personnel deficiencies at other positions.

Third and one: Bears

November, 2, 2009
Nov 2
4:02
PM ET
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By Kevin Seifert
Posted by ESPN.com’s Kevin Seifert

After Chicago’s 30-6 victory over Cleveland, here are three (mostly) indisputable facts I feel relatively sure about:
  1. Tailback Matt Forte needed 26 carries to churn out 90 yards. He didn’t have a run of more than 12 yards, but I had no problem with his performance Sunday. Why? Forte rushed for two touchdowns, both in the red zone. Scoring is the great equalizer in measuring performance, and for weeks the Bears have been struggling in the red zone. Forte might never be the type of back who consistently averages 4-plus yards per carry. But if he can be a consistent weapon in the red zone, closing out drives with touchdowns if quarterback Jay Cutler falters or falls under heavy pressure, then he’ll close a huge gap in the Bears offense.
  2. I think we now know why the Bears were so eager to replace left guard Josh Beekman during the offseason. Free agent Frank Omiyale hasn’t been the answer thus far, but Beekman didn’t perform much better Sunday against the Browns. Granted, he was matched up often against one of the NFL’s best defensive tackles in Shaun Rogers. But the physical manhandling he absorbed at times illustrates the size and strength deficiencies the Bears identified in the offseason.
  3. It looks like the Bears have settled on Hunter Hillenmeyer as their middle linebacker with Nick Roach on the strong side. I’m all for that decision. All things equal, I’d rather have a veteran getting everyone lined up with the younger and faster player outside. That’s the way it sets up with Hillenmeyer and Roach. Lance Briggs, of course, remains on the weak side. Coach Lovie Smith said Monday he is “pleased” with the arrangement and added: “That’s the way we wanted to go before Hunter went down” earlier this season with a rib injury. More than anything, I think the inconsistency the Bears have had at middle linebacker is a reflection of how we all took Brian Urlacher’s leadership and organizational skills for granted in recent years.

And here’s one question I’m still asking:
When will Devin Hester return another punt for a touchdown? They once seemed to come every week, but it’s now been 23 weeks of NFL games since he last scored on a punt return; a 64-yarder against New Orleans on Dec. 30, 2007. Hester got close a couple of times Sunday, getting tackled by punter Dave Zastudil after a 32-yarder and then having a 69-yard touchdown called back because of a holding penalty on Rashied Davis. Soon enough.

Third and one: Vikings

November, 2, 2009
Nov 2
12:45
PM ET
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By Kevin Seifert
Posted by ESPN.com’s Kevin Seifert

After Minnesota’s 38-26 victory at Green Bay, here are three (mostly) indisputable facts I feel relatively sure about:
  1. Defensive end Jared Allen might want to use some of his $70 million contract to purchase a few more games against the Packers. He had 7.5 sacks against them in two games this season and now leads the NFL with 10.5 at the season’s midpoint. I don’t know if he has a chance to challenge Michael Strahan’s all-time record for sacks in a season -- there are no more games against the Packers on Minnesota’s schedule, after all -- but already Allen has put together a second consecutive stellar season following his blockbuster trade from Kansas City. “It’s good to already know I’m going to have at least 10.5 sacks this season,” he said. For those keeping track, Allen has 25 sacks in 24 games with the Vikings.
  2. Quarterback Brett Favre made some noise Sunday night about a groin strain, and he’s voiced similar concerns about his ribs and hip this season. But I think this week’s bye comes at a good time from a mental standpoint. Favre needs a chance to catch his breath after the whirlwind of his post-camp arrival, his games against Green Bay and a 7-1 start. As we’ve discussed once or twice, Favre has a history of falling off in the final quarter of the season. It’s hard to imagine anyone, 40 years old or otherwise, keeping up the pace he set over the past 2.5 months. He’ll have the chance to visit his Fountain of Youth one more time.
  3. The Vikings are in decent position to capture their second consecutive NFC North title, and in some ways they’ve gotten the most difficult part of their schedule out of the way. They’re done with the Packers, Baltimore and Pittsburgh. They have three consecutive home games coming after the bye. Here are three games to watch, however: At Arizona on Dec. 6, at Carolina on Dec. 20 and at Chicago on Dec. 28. All three could be difficult matchups.

And here is one question I’m still asking:
Is Percy Harvin your rookie of the year yet? I know we have a long way to go, but Harvin has made a dramatic impact in his first eight games. He’s been exceptional as a receiver, especially on third down, but there’s no doubt his greatest contribution has come on special teams. Thanks to Harvin’s kickoff returns, the Vikings are starting their average drive at the 34-yard line, by far an NFL high. He has already returned two kickoffs for touchdowns, and his 77-yard return Sunday at Lambeau Field set up a score as well. Overall this season, he’s averaging nearly 31 yards per kickoff return.

Third and one: Packers

November, 2, 2009
Nov 2
12:00
PM ET
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By Kevin Seifert
Posted by ESPN.com’s Kevin Seifert

After Green Bay’s 38-26 loss to Minnesota, here are three (mostly) indisputable facts I feel relatively sure about:
  1. I’ve always liked Packers coach Mike McCarthy from a personal standpoint, but I have to join the chorus in at least some of the criticism directed his way. The Packers have some consistent problems that won’t go away, and thus far McCarthy and his staff have had no answers. No matter what has caused an NFL-high 32 sacks, it’s a sign of questionable coaching when they continue to appear with such frequency. Sacks are a critical measure of offensive efficiency, and even if it takes away from another area, the Packers must take more dramatic steps to shore it up. Under McCarthy, the Packers continue to commit penalties that indicate a lack of discipline. Johnny Jolly’s head-butt of Minnesota tailback Chester Taylor is a prime example. Finally, and this is less urgent, McCarthy would probably do well to examine the frequency of successful 50-plus-yard field goals relative to the field position damage they create when they go unconverted.
  2. FOX analyst Troy Aikman was critical of quarterback Aaron Rodgers for not stepping up in the pocket to avoid pressure and sacks. In this case, I agree Rodgers held the ball inexplicably long at times, especially in the first half, and seemed more willing to take a sack than throw the ball away. At the end of the day, Rodgers finished with a 108.5 passer rating. That’s an elite number, but it sure didn’t feel like an elite outing. I thought Rodgers’ first-half performance was pretty rough, and certainly not what a young and hyped-up team needed to start the game.
  3. You’re starting to see the frustration caused when 4-3 players are transitioned into a 3-4 team. Cornerback Charles Woodson and defensive end Cullen Jenkins have both spoken out, putting Aaron Kampman’s offseason silence into a new light. (Maybe Kampman saw what was coming.) The Packers have some good defensive players, and the 3-4 scheme can be successful. So we’re back to where it started: It’s incumbent on defensive coordinator Dom Capers to find a way to make it all work. No one thought the Packers would run a pure 3-4 this season, given their personnel. But Capers has yet to find the formula that mixes his ideas with his players’ strengths.

And here is one question I’m still asking:
At halftime Sunday, McCarthy told his team that the turning point of its season was coming in the second half. He was referring to a comeback victory that never happened, raising this question: Where do the Packers go from here? Despite the problems that surfaced in both games against Minnesota, Green Bay is still 4-3 and can put itself into the wild-card chase with an even second-half performance. Will that happen? Or will this game turn the Packers in the other direction?
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