NFC North: Tim Masthay

Calvin Johnson and Aaron RodgersGetty ImagesCalvin Johnson, left, and Aaron Rodgers were easy picks for the All-NFC North team.
It took longer than expected. Preliminary decisions were questioned. Debates extended into the wee hours. We went through a first draft, then a second and even a third. Countless observers were consulted. It wasn't until I had a full week to mull the 2011 All-NFC North team that I was prepared to make the big reveal.

Via Twitter, @jpberthiaume asked: "Do people really care about these 'teams?'" I guess it's a fair point. I doubt few, if any, of the players listed in the chart wrote a fifth-grade essay about their plans to one day make the All-NFC North team on ESPN.com, even if it was only because the NFC North hadn't yet been formed in those days and ESPN.com was operating out of a Bristol-based closet.

So I'll let you be the judge. This is annually a fun exercise, even if it doesn't lead to a deep understanding of the human condition or even reveal any breakthroughs about the just-completed season. If nothing else, it offers us a blank template to recognize the best-performing players in the division without the hindrance of the politics and reputation.

Some notes on some of the tight decisions, for which I seriously received input from multiple angles:
  • One of the fiercest debates came at wide receiver. Everyone agreed that the Detroit Lions' Calvin Johnson deserved one spot, but there was a split about the other two. Did the Green Bay Packers' Greg Jennings, who missed three games because of a knee injury, deserve an automatic bid? And if he did, should the Packers' Jordy Nelson or the Minnesota Vikings' Percy Harvin get the third spot? I thought Jennings' 67 receptions, 949 yards and nine touchdowns in 13 games merited a spot. And ultimately I chose Nelson over Harvin. I realize Harvin caught 87 passes in a punchless offense and added 345 rushing yards to his total, but in the end I couldn't overlook a player who scored more touchdowns (15) than all but four players in the NFL this season. Plus, as Hatterbot pointed out: "Rushing yards don't count in the WR category."
  • I went with the Lions' Rob Sims at left guard in part on the advice of John McTigue of ESPN Stats & Information, who noted that Sims was the only NFC North left guard to play the position for 16 games this season. Sims also had the best pass-sack ratio (19.7 passes per sack) of the group, based on video study.
  • There is no doubt that the Lions' Brandon Pettigrew (83 catches) had a more productive season then the Packers' Jermichael Finley (55). But the Lions often used Pettigrew as a substitute for their punchless running game, and that's why his per-catch average of 9.4 yards was lower than any other tight end with at least 30 catches. According to ESPN Stats & Information, the average pass to Pettigrew this season traveled 6.5 yards in the air. The average pass to Finley traveled 11.4 yards. Finley caught five passes of at least 30 yards. Pettigrew's longest was 27. Both players had their share of drops, combining for a total of 15, but I thought Finley made a bigger impact on his catches than Pettigrew did.
  • I really debated the Bears' Julius Peppers and the Lions' Cliff Avril at defensive end. Avril (11.5) had a half-sack more than Peppers (11) and forced twice as many fumbles. But one of the advantages we have on this team is investigating beyond the conventional numbers. Our friends at Pro Football Focus (PFF) credited Peppers with 53 quarterback pressures, the second-highest total in the NFL. Avril ranked No. 8 with 37, but in a close race, I chose the maximum mumber of plays impacted over Avril's slight edge in "playmaking" statistics.
  • I used a similar approach in choosing the Vikings' Kevin Williams and the Lions' Ndamukong Suh as my defensive tackles. It's true that the Bears' Henry Melton led the NFC North's defensive tackles with seven pressures, but PFF had Suh with 27 quarterback pressures, an NFL high for an interior lineman. Williams tied for No. 3 with 25. Melton wasn't that far behind at 23, but I also took into account that the Bears nearly benched him for inconsistency at one point in the season. (Coach Lovie Smith in November: "He hasn't showed up as much. Whether teams have adjusted to him or whatever, we need to get more production from him because he's capable of it." Meanwhile, I thought Packers defensive lineman B.J. Raji took a step backward in 2011. PFF credited him with only 10 stops (the cumulative number of plays made that constitute an offensive failure) in 842 snaps.
  • If you want to say I chickened out at linebacker, go ahead. I originally left open the middle and one of the outside spots, but in the end I went with our division standbys: Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs. For starters, Briggs was one of six non-offensive linemen to play 100 percent of his team's snaps in the NFL this season. There's something to be said for being available to your team. And while I do think that the Packers' Desmond Bishop and the Lions' Stephen Tulloch had good seasons, I couldn't find a statistic or an opinion that convinced me they were better than Urlacher. Someday, there will be turnover among NFC North linebackers. But it didn't happen this season.
  • Safety play was poor throughout the NFC North, so I'm not at all ashamed to have chosen a third cornerback to replace one of the safeties on this team. It came down to the Lions' Chris Houston and the Packers' Tramon Williams. Both had their ups and downs in coverage. Houston had five interceptions and two touchdowns in 14 games, while Williams had four interceptions and one touchdown in 15 games. In the end, I chose Williams because I think it was pretty clear he was pushing through a really limiting shoulder injury for much of the first half of the season.
  • I chose the Packers' specialists, kicker Mason Crosby and punter Tim Masthay. Crosby converted 24 of 28 kicks, including a 58-yarder, and ranked third in the NFL with 49 touchbacks. Masthay downed a division-high 23 punts inside the 20-yard line despite a division-low 55 punts.
  • I mistakenly left off a coverage specialist from our original post. There should be no debating that the Bears' Corey Graham deserves that spot.
  • Go ahead. Rip away....
Coming later this week: Some supplementary NFC North awards, including our top coordinators.

Halftime: Chiefs 6, Packers 0

December, 18, 2011
12/18/11
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KANSAS CITY -- Well then. The Green Bay Packers are scoreless at halftime and trail the Kansas City Chiefs. A few thoughts.
  • The Packers have had a few games with concentrated drops this season, but none like the first half Sunday. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has completed only six of his 17 passes, and while drops are a subjective judgment, I would conservatively say at least six of those incompletions should have been caught. Tight end Jermichael Finley is responsible for half of that total. Those who worried about Finley's ability to fill in as the lead receiver while Greg Jennings is sidelined appear justified.
  • Offensive pass interference is a relatively rare call, so the fact that receiver Jordy Nelson has been whistled twice already suggests that someone from the Chiefs has gotten in the officials' ears. Just a guess.
  • There is no doubt some serious belly-aching about the drops, but the Chiefs have controlled this game mostly on offense. Quarterback Kyle Orton has completed 14 of 19 passes, and overall the Chiefs have 210 yards and 13 first downs while holding the ball for 20 minutes, 33 seconds of the 30-minute half. The Packers' defense hasn't had many answers, and if it weren't for a fourth-and-goal stop late in the second quarter, the Chiefs would have a two-score lead.
  • Punter Tim Masthay did his part in limiting the scoring with a strong 71-yard punt late in the second quarter, flipping field position and preventing the Chiefs from gaining possession anywhere close to field goal range.
  • With all of that said, the Packers will get the ball to open the third quarter. As they have many times this year, they can shift momentum of the game with a strong drive. Stay tuned.

BBAO: The James Starks dilemma

December, 9, 2011
12/09/11
7:30
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We're Black and Blue All Over:

The Green Bay Packers will play at least four, and potentially six, consecutive games outdoors on grass fields in cold-weather locales. That means it's time to get their running game in order. But just as they hit that stretch, the Packers are trying to figure out the best way to handle a series of injuries to lead runner James Starks.

As Kareem Copeland of the Green Bay Press-Gazette points out, Starks has been forced out of three consecutive games because of knee and ankle injuries. He hasn't practiced all week and it might make some sense to hold him out of Sunday's game against the Oakland Raiders to allow for additional healing time.

The Packers have a strong fallback in veteran Ryan Grant, and rookie Brandon Saine has been seeing repetitions in recent weeks. But we all know how much of an impact Starks made on the Packers' run to the Super Bowl last season. For what it's worth, Packers offensive coordinator Joe Philbin said that it might help to hold out Starks "from a freshness standpoint" but not a "football development standpoint" down the stretch.

The Packers have three regular-season games remaining at Lambeau Field and could have two playoff games if they win home-field advantage in the playoffs. Their only road game is in Week 15 at the Kansas City Chiefs.

Continuing around the NFC North:

NFC North Stock Watch

October, 25, 2011
10/25/11
1:00
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» NFC Stock Watch: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

FALLING

1. Patience of Ndamukong Suh, Detroit Lions defensive tackle: Suh forcefully and emotionally defended himself Monday against allegations of what would have been some sketchy trash talk by the Atlanta Falcons. Suh vehemently denied he called for the Falcons to bring out a medical cart when quarterback Matt Ryan injured his left ankle. Falcons receiver Roddy White stood by that allegation during an interview with the NFL Network on Monday night, so someone is not telling the truth. Crazy things get said and done on NFL fields all the time. But based on the passion of Suh's defense, you have to assume (and hope) he's not the one lying here.

2. Minnesota Vikings locker room: Coach Leslie Frazier has plenty on his management plate as he enters Week 8 of his first season as a permanent head coach. Cornerback Chris Cook, a rising young player on a roster of veterans, has been jailed since Saturday morning on domestic violence allegations. Receiver Bernard Berrian has apparently run afoul of team discipline on a number of occasions, resulting in two game-day deactivations and a looming departure from the organization. And although it went underplayed late last week, Frazier absorbed some rare and direct public criticism from soft-spoken defensive tackle Kevin Williams, who challenged Frazier's assertion that the defensive line hasn't played physically. Williams told the St. Paul Pioneer Press: "If you want to call somebody out, call who you're talking about out." There are growing pains in any head coaching transition, and Frazier is dealing with it on a number of fronts.

3. Silliness of criticizing Clay Matthews, Green Bay Packers linebacker: Matthews had a sack of Vikings quarterback Christian Ponder, bringing his season total to three. But I thought his performance Sunday was a perfect example of how a rush linebacker can make a tremendous impact without sack totals. For one, his run defense was excellent. He was in on tackles that limited the Vikings to 2, 1, 2, minus-2, and minus-5 yards on rushing plays. On the latter, he beat Vikings left guard Steve Hutchinson to the backfield by several steps, as noted by Pro Football Focus.

RISING

[+] Enlarge
 Tim Masthay
AP Photo/Charles Rex ArbogastPunter Tim Masthay has been a weapon for the Packers this season.
1. Tim Masthay, Green Bay Packers punter: It hasn't been a stellar season for Masthay, who entered Sunday's game against the Vikings with the second-worst net average (30.4) in the NFL. But he made the most of his three punts at the Metrodome, averaging 55.3 net yards. According to Mark Simon of ESPN Stats & Information, that net average was the third best by an NFL punter in the past 35 years (minimum three punts). Masthay's 64-yard punt in the fourth quarter was especially important, flipping field position at a time when the Vikings were trying to get into position for a go-ahead score. The punt, downed at the Vikings' 2-yard line, increased the Packers' win probability from 75 to 80 percent, based on data from games compiled over the past 10 years.

2. Matt Forte, Chicago Bears running back: Forte notched his third 100-yard rushing game in the past four weeks Sunday against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It's almost impossible right now to distinguish him from the top running backs in the game, as ESPN analyst Andrew Brandt writes for the National Football Post. Forte's 1,091 all-purpose yards is 211 yards ahead of the next-best mark in the NFL, and he has accounted for more than 50 percent of the Bears' offense. With Forte and Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, the NFC North might have the top two MVP candidates through Week 7.

3. Charles Woodson, Packers cornerback: Two interceptions Sunday brought Woodson's NFL-leading total to five after seven games. You can note that four of the five have come against rookie quarterbacks Ponder and Cam Newton, but I haven't noticed any asterisks in league rankings lately. Plus, half of what makes a good defensive player is getting in position to make plays that will eventually be afforded you. Woodson might not be blanketing receivers as he once did, but his playmaking has been a huge equalizer for the Packers' defense.

Free Head Exam: Green Bay Packers

September, 26, 2011
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After the Green Bay Packers' 27-17 victory Sunday against the Chicago Bears, here are three issues that merit further examination:
    Head ExamKevin SeifertFollowing their win against the Bears, the Packers take their turn in the examination room.
  1. Handed an array of explosive skill players, Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has made clear he will throw where the coverage dictates and won't force passes to anyone he doesn't consider open. Rodgers has stayed true to his word and makes no apologies for targeting tight end Jermichael Finley on only 17 passes through three games. What's amazing is how efficient the pair have been when the opportunity arises. Of those 17 throws, 15 have been completed -- including seven of eight on Sunday. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Rodgers and Finley have the highest completion percentage (85.3) of any quarterback-tight end combination with at least 30 attempts since the start of 2010. I know it's tempting to say Rodgers should throw more often to Finley if they have such success. But their success is based on Rodgers throwing his way only under the appropriate circumstances.
  2. As we discussed Sunday night, a number of Packers players were awed by the trick punt return the Bears nearly pulled off at the end of the game. I didn't get the sense that Packers coach Mike McCarthy shared that view. "Frankly," McCarthy said. "It was poor awareness by our coverage unit." I had a mixed reaction. The Bears' design was brilliant, the timing was perfect and it's hard to imagine that anyone on the Packers' coverage team had ever seen something like it. On the other hand, you would hope that at least one or two cover men would have wondered why almost every Bears blocker was moving away from the sideline where the punt was supposed to go. Someone, anyone, could have looked to see if punter Tim Masthay had mis-hit the ball, which he hadn't, before following the Bears blockers.
  3. Rookie Randall Cobb drew a few gasps Sunday by fielding all five punts kicked his way, including a few in heavy traffic that could have led to a turnover. Personally, I like his fearlessness and think the Packers should value a player who wants every last yard he can get. I know he's already fumbled a kickoff this season, and I'm sure the Packers will talk to him about the appropriate time for making a fair catch. But in general, I would prefer aggression over caution from returners, providing they have reasonable ball security skills.
And here is one issue I still don't get:
Many have assumed that veteran Charlie Peprah would move seamlessly into the spot formerly held by Pro Bowl safety Nick Collins. But the Bears absolutely targeted Peprah for much of Sunday's game, and I think it's fair to say he wasn't always up to the task. One sequence that stood out in particular: Back-to-back passes of 17 yards to receiver Sam Hurd and 24 yards to receiver Johnny Knox. Peprah also missed a few more tackles than you would like to see from your free safety, at least when the Packers weren't in their one-safety scheme that brought Peprah to the sidelines. "I wouldn't give it a winning grade personally," Peprah said. "But at the same time, that's why you have 10 other guys out there playing with you." Peprah showed us last season that he can play at a relatively high level. But it didn't appear Sunday was one of those days.

Bears' rope-a-dope goes for naught*

September, 25, 2011
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CHICAGO -- Technically, it will go down as a 35-yard punt, followed by a nine-yard return and backed up by a 10-yard penalty.

But it will go down in history, said Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, as "the most incredible play I've ever seen." Packers receiver Greg Jennings, who like Rodgers is typically understated when it comes to superlatives, added: "I've been watching the NFL for a long time. That was the best play I've ever seen. Hands down. Best play I've ever seen."

Even as they stood in the winning locker room Sunday afternoon, Packers players were stunned and admittedly awed by the play the Chicago Bears conceived and nearly pulled off at the end of a 27-17 victory. You've probably seen it by now, but in essence the Bears bamboozled the Packers on the kind of trick play you rarely see at the NFL level. (Video of the play from NFL.com here.)

To recap, with context gleaned from postgame interviews:

With 1 minute, nine seconds remaining in the game, the Packers called for Tim Masthay to punt toward the left sideline on a fourth-down play at the Bears' 46-yard line. According to receiver/returner Johnny Knox, the Bears "knew he was going to kick it that way because their scheme and what hash they were on."

As a result, Bears special teams coordinator Dave Toub called for a return the team had practiced but obviously not run in a game. Knox, lined up as a "jammer" against Packers "gunner" Jarrett Bush, turned and sprinted down the left sideline at the snap. At the same time, Packers punt returner Devin Hester sprinted toward the right sideline, along with eight Bears blockers.

And so did the entire Packers cover team, even though they knew the call was for a punt in the opposite direction.

"We all went with Hester," Bush said. "You have to kind of respect it because Hester is the dynamic returner that he is. Everybody went that way. I knew the ball was supposed to go a different way. But I couldn't find it."

As Hester called for a mock fair catch on the right sideline, Knox fielded the punt on the other side and began sprinting upfield. *Update: Upon a second look at the replay, there is no evidence Hester called for a fair catch. The only player that saw it happen was Masthay, and the one blocker the Bears kept with Knox -- Winston Venable -- shielded Knox down the sideline for the most unique touchdown play I've ever seen. Rarely, if ever, will you see 10 NFL players get fooled the way the Packers were in this case.

The score would have closed the deficit to 27-24, putting the Bears in position for an onside kick and a possible possession to tie or win the game. But officials called Bears special teams ace Corey Graham for holding on the right sideline, nullifying the score.

"I actually told some of their players, 'That was a nice play you guys came up with,'" Bush said. "We didn't even expect that at all. Unfortunately, Corey Graham got the holding call. That's that. It was a long play. It happened."

What's next? The fumblerooski?

BBAO: Jordy Nelson catches on

September, 23, 2011
9/23/11
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We're Black and Blue All Over:

Here's something that might catch you by surprise: Green Bay Packers receiver Jordy Nelson is on an extraordinarily productive run dating back to Week 16 of last season.

As Tyler Dunne of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel notes, Nelson has caught 34 passes for 610 yards and five touchdowns over the Packers' past eight games, including the playoffs. Greg Jennings is the only receiver who has caught more passes for more yards over that span, but Nelson has him beat by a touchdown.

Consider this development another example of where the Packers' purported starting lineup doesn't necessarily correlate to playing time or production. Already, backup tailback James Starks is getting substantially more playing time than starter Ryan Grant. And by the numbers, at least, Nelson is the Packers' No. 2 receiver next to Jennings.

Nelson isn't getting more playing time than other receivers; according to Dunne, he was on the field for 33 of 58 plays last Sunday against the Carolina Panthers. But he is capitalizing on the opportunities he does get, and opposing defenses would be well advised to catch on.

Continuing around the NFC North:
Earlier this week, we noted the Green Bay Packers had $12.8 million in salary cap space and seemed primed to start handing out a few contract extensions to deserving veterans. Up first, as he should have been, was right guard Josh Sitton.

People outside the NFC North might not have heard of Sitton, much less realize he developed into one of the NFL's top guards last season. But as we discussed in our Most Underrated package this summer, Sitton is a powerful run blocker who was a Pro Bowl alternate last season. He hasn't missed a snap since the start of the 2009 season and was named league's best offensive lineman by NFL Alumni last winter.

(Josh: You can make our commission check out to "NFC North blog Retirement Fund.")

Sitton's new contract, signed Friday, locks him up through the 2016 season. Numbers haven't been reported, but Sitton's status as a budding Pro Bowl player suggests he wasn't likely to take a discounted deal.

It's not immediately clear how much cap space the Packers have left, but unless they intentionally structured Sitton's deal to consume the surplus, they should have enough room for at least one more extension. Possibilities include tight end Jermichael Finley, receiver Jordy Nelson and possibly punter Tim Masthay.
The final years of the NFL's previous collective bargaining agreement (CBA) rendered salary cap totals nearly moot. Big jumps in cap allowances eliminated almost every tight spot and, for the most part, allowed teams to sign the players they wanted without making a corresponding cap reduction.

[+] Enlarge
Adrian Peterson
Steven Bisig/US PresswireA contract extension for running back Adrian Peterson could free up cap space for the Vikings.
We're still not sure how the new CBA and cap rules will impact player movement around the league. I'm guessing at least a few teams will need to make some tough decisions, but how impactful they are remains to be seen.

With those caveats in mind, let's take a look at where each NFC North team sits under the $120 million cap, based on documentation I've seen. If nothing else, these numbers indicate how easily a team could add a veteran player after Saturday's final roster cutdown. It will also give you an indication if it could sign some current players to contract extensions by the end of the season, and finally, it could give you a peak at teams' upcoming priorities.
No NFL team has less cap space than the Vikings, but that figure could change quickly if they sign linebacker Chad Greenway and/or tailback Adrian Peterson to contract extensions. Greenway ($10.091 million) and Peterson ($12.775 million) account for about 19 percent of the team's total cap space at the moment.

The Lions don't have a lot of flexibility at this point, and what they have came after they renegotiated deals this month with receiver Calvin Johnson, quarterback Matthew Stafford and defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch.

In many ways, the Lions are a classic victim of the NFL's previous CBA. Their reward for years of losing was a series of high draft choices, but those slots were extraordinarily expensive and, viewed together, they have created some cap headaches moving forward.

In 2012, Johnson ($18.5 million), Stafford ($16.1 million) and defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh ($12.2 million) would account for nearly 40 percent of the Lions' cap space under their current contract terms. For that reason, it seems almost certain that Johnson will have a new contract if he is a member of the Lions next season.

The Bears and Packers, meanwhile, have enough space to complete several veteran contract extensions apiece during the season. Among the possibilities for the Bears are running back Matt Forte, center Roberto Garza, safety Chris Harris and linebacker Lance Briggs. The Packers could approach guard Josh Sitton, tight end Jermichael Finley and/or punter Tim Masthay.
We're Black and Blue All Over:

A few weeks ago, we noted how fortunate receiver Roy Williams feels to have landed with the Chicago Bears. He is in a potentially explosive offense with a strong-armed quarterback who has begged for a receiver just like him and an offensive coordinator who coaxed his best seasons in the mid-2000s.

But as Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune explains, Williams' transition hasn't gone as smoothly as everyone would have hoped. Cutler has noted that Williams is still "getting back into shape," apparently a reference to the physical condition Williams arrived to camp in, and Williams said their connection is a little more than halfway to where it needs to be.

Biggs writes that "it's premature to say there is a Cutler-to-Williams chemistry issue" but adds: "[I]t's not too early to wonder when they are going to hit it off. He's the big receiver -- 6 feet 3, 215 pounds -- Cutler has pined for but the connection isn't there yet."

I think everyone involved would like to see some progress along those lines in Monday night's preseason game against the New York Giants, to be televised by ESPN.

Continuing around the NFC North:
We're Black and Blue All Over:

I'll say it again: I don't think that Detroit Lions defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh's 15-yard penalty in Friday night's preseason opener was anywhere close to the penalty he earned last summer for ripping off the helmet of Cleveland Browns quarterback Jake Delhomme. Friday night, he hit Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton and Dalton's helmet came off -- an important distinction.

Obviously, the violence of the hit had something to do with the helmet coming off. But it didn't strike me as blatantly dirty. Neither did Suh.
Suh, via Carlos Monarrez of the Detroit Free Press: "There's always a fine line of dirtiness and a fine line of aggressiveness. I know to this point that in my own heart that I haven't crossed that line by any means."

If anything, the hit just puts another incident on tape for two entities: opposing quarterbacks and future game officials. Both will have a close eye on him in upcoming games.

Continuing around the NFC North:
  • Lions receiver Calvin Johnson is day-to-day because of a bruised left shoulder, according to Phillip Zaroo of Mlive.com.
  • Lions tight end Brandon Pettigrew (ankle) returned to practice on Sunday, notes Tim Twentyman of the Detroit News.
  • Lions receiver Nate Burleson hopes that teams single-cover Johnson this season, as ESPN analyst Cris Carter recently suggested. Monarrez has more in the Free Press.
  • Chicago Bears defensive end Corey Wootton will miss at least a month because of damage to the meniscus in his right knee, according to Vaughn McClure of the Chicago Tribune. Wootton suffered the injury on the opening kickoff of Saturday's preseason opener.
  • With 73 yards on 13 carries, and another 46 yards on two catches, Chicago running back Kahlil Bell is getting noticed. Sean Jensen of the Chicago Sun-Times has more.
  • Bob LeGere of the Daily Herald thinks the Bears need to move Roberto Garza back to guard and insert Chris Spencer as their starting center.
  • Bears rookie offensive lineman Gabe Carimi was solid in his preseason debut at right tackle, according to Dan Pompei of the Tribune.
  • Michael C. Wright of ESPNChicago.com on the Bears' offensive line: "The whole unit needs to improve. But reflection usually offers clarity, and a day after what appeared to be a nine-sack debacle at Soldier Field, the truth is that what transpired really wasn't out of the realm of what was expected."
  • Backup quarterbacks Matt Flynn and Graham Harrell both played well Saturday night, writes Jason Wilde of ESPNMilwaukee.com.
  • Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: "Competition is supposed to make you better, but if you're the Green Bay Packers, you might not want to bring in a punter for, say, the next 10 years. Not with Tim Masthay on the roster."
  • Rob Demovsky of the Green Bay Press-Gazette: "Early in training camp, Randall Cobb insisted he can be more than just a slot receiver, which was what many scouts had him pegged for coming out of the University of Kentucky. Even if he's limited to that role as a rookie this season, it looks like he might be able to do some damage."
  • The Minnesota Vikings appear to be moving away from the zone-blocking run scheme, writes Tom Pelissero of 1500ESPN.com.
  • Bob Sansevere of the St. Paul Pioneer Press pulls back the curtain on new Minnesota Vikings defensive coordinator Fred Pagac. A little bit.
  • The Vikings had a tight end next to new left tackle Charlie Johnson on eight of his 11 plays over the first two series of Saturday's preseason opener, notes Judd Zulgad of the Star Tribune.

Rewind'10: Special teams

February, 14, 2011
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The release of Rick Gosselin's annual special-teams rankings provides us an opportunity for a multi-front evaluation of how each NFC North team fared in an area that can be difficult to appraise intuitively.

Offenses and defenses are typically ranked by yards and points allowed. For his special-teams analysis, Gosselin ranked teams based on a composite score in 22 categories of measurable production. Below, I've paired Gosselin's rankings with those from our friends at Football Outsiders, who determine a value based on teams' performance above or below the NFL average.

Chicago Bears
Football Outsiders:
No. 1
Gosselin: No. 4 (tie)
Comment: Devin Hester recorded the highest punt return average in NFL history, and coordinator Dave Toub's coverage and blocking schemes are top notch.

Detroit Lions
Football Outsiders:
No. 11
Gosselin: No. 15
Comment: Stefan Logan was an excellent addition as both a punt and kickoff returner, and Dave Rayner converted 13 of 16 field goals after replacing the injured Jason Hanson.

Green Bay Packers
Football Outsiders:
No. 27
Gosselin: No. 29
Comment: Punter Tim Masthay made significant late-season improvement, but overall the Packers had no return game to speak of and injuries left their coverage teams in constant flux.

Minnesota Vikings
Football Outsiders:
No. 20
Gosselin: No. 18 (tie)
Comment: The Vikings had the best place-kicker and punter in the NFC North and their coverage was solid, but they had limited explosiveness in the return game.
Rodgers/Peppers/SuhUS PresswireAaron Rodgers, Julius Peppers and Ndamukong Suh were slam-dunks for the All-NFC North team.
I was concerned about 2010 fatigue this week when I asked for some help in compiling our All-NFC North team. It's been almost six weeks since the end of the regular season, and I figured many of you had moved on to offseason mode.

More than 800 responses later -- via the comments, Twitter and the mailbag -- I am glad to admit my concerns were unwarranted. There was great interest in putting this team together, and you can see the results in the chart to your right. Below, I've offered explanations and context for the final decisions.

From the top, many of you were surprised that I didn't make Minnesota Vikings tailback Adrian Peterson a "lock." Wrote kprugger2010: "I will consume my first born child ... if you don't immediately make Adrian Peterson the undisputed/unanimous/worship-worthy RB on this list."

I realize Peterson led the division with 1,298 yards and 12 touchdowns despite missing one game. But I thought Chicago Bears tailback Matt Forte had an exceptional second half of the season, and I wanted to see where that conversation went. In the last six weeks of the season, during which the Bears locked up their NFC North title, Forte had the third-most yards from scrimmage (718) in the NFL.

In arguing Forte's case, drhodes77 wrote: "Forte for RB. No other real RB's in the league that did anything consistently. And by league I mean NFCN. Peterson had another standard year for him but in terms of being all important to his team, his team [stunk]."

In the end, I cheated a little and converted the TE/FB category to "RB." I thought both Peterson and Forte were among the top players in the division. Both were deserving of inclusion.

Offensive line was a struggle for me and many of you as well. The only position I felt certain about was right guard, which the Green Bay Packers' Josh Sitton manned consistently all season. The other four? Let's just say this wasn't the best year for NFC North offensive lines.

Although Packers left tackle Chad Clifton was named to the Pro Bowl, I went with the Detroit Lions' Jeff Backus. @JohnWayne506th pointed me in the direction of these STATS Inc. analyses for Clifton and Backus. By STATS' measure, Backus gave up half as many sacks as Clifton over the course of the season. Sack responsibility is open to interpretation, but others have shared in this opinion as well.

For the rest of the line, I went with Vikings left guard Steve Hutchinson, Packers center Scott Wells and Packers right tackle Bryan Bulaga.

While Hutchinson's play slipped in 2010, I don't think any of us could argue that the Lions' Rob Sims, the Packers' Daryn Colledge or the Bears' Chris Williams was better. At center, it was pretty much a toss-up between Wells, the Lions' Dominic Raiola and the Bears' Olin Kreutz. I went with Wells because several Packers coaches and players said at the Super Bowl that he had his best-ever NFL season in 2010.

Right tackle was particularly challenging. I chose Bulaga because he had an uneventful year after making the conversion from left tackle. For offensive linemen, "uneventful" often equals "successful." I'll admit that isn't the most scientific explanation, and the Lions' Gosder Cherilus had a case here. But as hendrix197731 noted, the Lions' offensive line was ranked No. 32 in the NFL by Football Outsiders, whose methods I trust. In a close decision, that ranking pushed me in the other direction.

Moving over to defense, I picked the Vikings' Jared Allen over the Packers' Cullen Jenkins and the Lions' Kyle Vanden Bosch. Allen had more sacks (11) and was the only one among that trio who played in all 16 games.

Levy50613 pushed to have Bears linebacker Lance Briggs removed and replaced by the Vikings' Chad Greenway, a move I considered. Wrote Levy50613: "He had 20 more solo tackles than Briggs had total tackles! 144 total tackles for Greenway. About 20 DB's had more tackles than Briggs (89)."

Ultimately, I wasn't going to downgrade Briggs based on tackles, an unofficial statistic. Greenway had a really good season, but I'm good with Briggs on this list.

There was some discussion about making the Vikings' Antoine Winfield the second cornerback, but I agreed with LamboLeak's observation of the Super Bowl: "We saw what happened when [Woodson] went out of the game Sunday: 21-3 turned into a game." Woodson had a quieter season in 2010 than he did in 2009, but that doesn't mean his play slipped beyond that of All-NFC North status.

As for safety, I flipped several times between the Bears' Chris Harris and the Lions' Louis Delmas to pair with the Packers' Nick Collins. I think we can agree that Harris -- like Forte -- was exceptional during the Bears' division title push. Harris had all five of his interceptions after the Bears' Week 8 bye.

Finally, special teams provided an opportunity to let flow my Vikings bias. (SARCASM ALERT.) Place-kicker Ryan Longwell missed only one field goal all season and punter Chris Kluwe led the division in net average (38.9) and punts downed inside the 20-yard line (32). I realize that Kluwe punted 12 more times than the candidate many of you pushed for, the Packers' Tim Masthay, but I didn't consider that difference large enough to make up for their respective production disparity.

Again, thanks to everyone for participating. Hopefully, the NFL's looming labor strife won't disrupt our plans to do it all over again next year.

The house that Ted Thompson built

January, 23, 2011
1/23/11
11:17
PM ET
B.J. RajiAP Photo/Jim PrischingB.J. Raji's pick-six turned out to be the difference in the Packers' win over the Bears.
CHICAGO -- As he always does, the man with the white mane sat stoically in his press box seat. Believe me, I checked.

Every time the Green Bay Packers' rookie nickelback made a play, I stole a glance down the aisle. Ted Thompson was unmoved. There was no hint of vengeance when rookie tailback James Starks scored a second-quarter touchdown, and I saw no reaction of note as punter Tim Masthay flipped the game's field position all afternoon.

The Packers' general manager had every reason to feel wholly vindicated Sunday as his team advanced to Super Bowl XLV with a 21-14 victory over the Chicago Bears. On a day when quarterback Aaron Rodgers' best play was a touchdown-saving tackle, Thompson's brand of team building proved especially prescient. This was a Ted Thompson victory if there ever was one.

"Ted built this house," Packers coach Mike McCarthy said. "He is responsible for everything that goes on."

We've all had our fun and taken our shots at the way Thompson constructed this team. Eschewing veteran free agency puts a premium on your own development program, leaving no margin for error in the draft and little patience in bringing along young players. You've got to hit nearly every time, and after watching Sunday's game at Soldier Field, I think we can agree that Thompson batted 1.000 in a year when the Packers lost more starting players to injuries than any NFL team.

Undrafted nickel back Sam Shields became one of 11 rookies in NFL history to intercept at least two passes in a playoff game, including the game-clinching play with 37 seconds remaining. Starks continued his postseason surge with 74 yards and his first touchdown since he was a junior at Buffalo in 2008. Masthay, plucked off the street last winter, pinned the Bears inside their 20-yard line on five of his eight punts. Nose tackle B.J. Raji, Thompson's first pick in the 2009 draft, returned an interception 18 yards for a touchdown that served as the final margin of victory.

The Packers have their share of elite players in Rodgers, receiver Greg Jennings, linebacker Clay Matthews and cornerbacks Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams. But without Shields, Starks and Masthay, the Packers might not have a ticket for Arlington, Texas, in two weeks.

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Sam Shields
Rob Grabowski/US PresswireSam Shields, who was an undrafted free agent this season, had two interceptions against the Bears.
"I think this really to me showed all of Ted's work over the last two or three years," team president Mark Murphy said. "You look at the depth of the roster, the players he's been able to identify. We have starting players playing key roles for us who were undrafted free agents this year. It's a tribute to Ted and his staff that he's able to find these players."

I missed Thompson after the game. I'm guessing he wouldn't have been in a gloating mood. It's not his style, and it's what I like best about him. He doesn't need to tell us I told you so. We saw it ourselves Sunday, and it was a development not lost in the Packers' locker room.

"It starts up top with Ted and players and the personnel department," veteran defensive lineman Ryan Pickett said. "They do a good job of bringing in players. Somebody gets hurt, and they bring in a guy where there's almost no drop-off. We have a lot of talent on this team. I don't know if I've ever seen this much, as long as I have been playing. There are players all over this team that were overlooked by other teams."

On the day the Packers advanced to their first Super Bowl in 13 years, you might not be up for patting their shy general manager on the back. Sorry folks. If Rodgers had pulled another of his postseason gems, I would be telling you all about it. If Matthews had put together another of his three-sack games, this post would have been easy to write.

The assumption has been that the Packers would ride Rodgers as far as he could take them. But Sunday, the Bears' defense limited him to 17 completions in 30 attempts. He threw two interceptions, including one to linebacker Brian Urlacher on what he called a "terrible throw" in the third quarter. Rodgers managed to trip up Urlacher at the Bears' 45-yard line, preventing what almost certainly would have been a touchdown, but he was unable to take the Packers to a second-half touchdown that would have put the game out of reach.

On this championship day, that task fell to players like Shields, Starks and Masthay. We've had plenty of discussions about Starks, who has vindicated Thompson's decision not to seek a veteran replacement (albeit a little late). Shields, meanwhile, was Thompson's version of an answer to the Packers' thin depth at cornerback last season.

Signed as an undrafted free agent after the draft, Shields initially was a candidate to be the Packers' kickoff and punt returner. But as soon as he arrived at training camp, he had defensive players and coaches turning their heads.

"We saw him and said, 'Why didn't this guy get drafted?'" Pickett said. "This guy has been making plays since the moment he got here. He might be the best rookie cornerback in the league."

It would be hard to argue based on Sunday's game. Shields ended two consecutive Bears series in the second quarter. The first was a sack of quarterback Jay Cutler on third down. Less than two minutes later, his athletic interception prevented what would have been a long 42-yard touchdown pass to receiver Johnny Knox.

According to the database at pro-football-reference.com, Shields is the first rookie in NFL history to collect two interceptions and a sack in a playoff game.

"He is going to be a great player for the Green Bay Packers for a long time," McCarthy said.

The Packers have more than their share of similar stories.

Ted Thompson is their ghost writer.

He won't tell you.

He doesn't need to.

You saw it yourself.

Final Word: NFC Championship

January, 21, 2011
1/21/11
4:00
PM ET
Conference Championship Final Word: Jets-Steelers | Bears-Packers

Five nuggets of knowledge about Sunday's Packers-Bears NFC Championship Game:

The stakes: It's been quite a week for NFC North fans, or at least 50 percent of them. The Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears are set for only the second playoff game in their 89-year history of matchups, and you can read back through it all with this handy "Epicenter of Humanity" filter. Here's the bottom line: We're going to have an NFC North/Central team in the Super Bowl for only the fifth time in the past 34 seasons. The Packers, so hot that they are favored by 31/2 points, are hoping to be the second No. 6 seed ever to advance to the game. The 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers were the other. It's a rare opportunity for the Bears as well. A victory would give them only their third opportunity to play for a championship in the past 47 years.

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Sam Shields
AP Photo/Rob CarrThe Packers' Sam Shields will likely be on the field a lot as an extra defensive back against QB Jay Cutler and the Bears on Sunday.
Scheming with DBs: Although they call themselves a 3-4 defense, the Packers have played with at least five defensive backs on the field an NFL-high 75.1 percent of the time, according to ESPN Stats & Information. That makes rookie nickelback Sam Shields essentially a starter and puts Bears quarterback Jay Cutler in a curious position. Cutler threw 16 touchdown passes and 15 interceptions during the regular season when opponents used at least one extra defensive back. To me, that's an illustration of Cutler's always-aggressive approach. The question Sunday will be whether he is rewarded for the risks he usually takes against coverage.

Hang time: On Thursday, we discussed the disparity between the special teams during most of the regular season. In the teams' Week 3 meeting at Soldier Field, the Bears got one of their two touchdowns on Devin Hester's 62-yard punt return. Hester capitalized on a 57-yard punt from Tim Masthay that advanced too far for the Packers' coverage. But according to ESPN Stats & Information, Masthay was fairly effective against Hester when he slotted his hang time between 3.5 and 4.5 seconds. In nine such punts against the Bears this season, Hester managed a total of 38 return yards. I realize we're getting into some inner football here, but it makes sense. Hester's day largely will be affected by whether Masthay gives him any opportunities.

Scrambled: Earlier this season, we noted that Cutler and Aaron Rodgers were among the top running quarterbacks in the NFL. That trend continued into the playoffs. Cutler had two rushing touchdowns last week against the Seattle Seahawks, and Rodgers had one against the Atlanta Falcons. ESPN Stats & Information separated called runs from scrambles and found that Rodgers and Cutler have had comparable success on scrambles. Rodgers has averaged 8.4 yards on 46 scrambles, including playoff games, while Cutler is at 8.7 yards on 33 scrambles. Long story short: Both defenses must be prepared for the opposing quarterback to take off.

Whither Peppers? Defensive end Julius Peppers had a quiet statistical year by his standards, finishing with 8 sacks, but I think we all can agree he made a substantial impact regardless. The Bears were able to send four or fewer pass rushers nearly 75 percent of the time, opening up opportunities for linebackers and defensive backs to make plays and cause turnovers. But the playoffs are a time when elite players need to take their team along for the ride. Peppers has two sacks in nine career playoff games. The Bears have won 12 games this year without big sack numbers from Peppers, but they probably need more Sunday given how hot the Packers offense has been.
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