NFC North: Tom Brady
Pro Bowl: Aaron Rodgers got the ball rolling
April, 26, 2012
Apr 26
11:04
AM ET
By
Kevin Seifert | ESPN.com

When the MVP talks, people listen.
Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers was the first prominent member of the NFL community to speak out in February about the diminished quality of the Pro Bowl. Speaking on his ESPN 540 radio show, Rodgers said some players on the NFC team "embarrassed themselves" and either "didn't want to play or when they were in there didn't put any effort into it."
NFL commissioner Roger Goodell agreed, and after several months of discussion it appears the league is having trouble finding a way to improve the game. So as ESPN's Chris Mortensen reported Thursday morning, the Pro Bowl is likely to be suspended and might never be played again.
We spent some time in February coming up with suggestions. My favorite was some kind of contemporary skills competition/reality show between the NFL's best players. I would tune in to watch Rodgers and, say, New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady compete to see who could eat more snails in 10 minutes, "Fear Factor" style. Wouldn't you?
But none of us really had any good ideas on improving the game itself. In an era of unprecedented safety concerns, it's unrealistic to expect players to play and hit each other harder, exposing themselves to injury, in a meaningless exhibition. My guess is Goodell is in the same spot. The Pro Bowl had been building to this point for years, and there's no turning back on its intensity level now.
Aaron Rodgers to 'Saturday Night Live?'
February, 8, 2012
Feb 8
10:00
AM ET
By
Kevin Seifert | ESPN.com
Could the "Discount Double Check" lead to national television stardom for Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers? I guess it depends on what you consider "national television stardom," but Rodgers took last weekend's television opportunity at Super Bowl XLVI to network for an appearance on NBC's "Saturday Night Live."
Rodgers has mentioned that possibility several times on his ESPN 540 radio show in Milwaukee, and Tuesday he said he met a couple cast members last weekend in Indianapolis, where he worked as part of NBC's pregame show. "I'm hopeful that we can figure something out there," Rodgers said.
I'm trying to make an "SNL"-related joke, but I'm a little dated in my reference points. Hasn't been the same since Matt Foley left permanently for his van down by the river. (#ChrisFarleyRIP.)
In all seriousness, hosting "SNL" is an elite stepping stone for athletes who have crossed into celebrity status. The success of Rodgers' State Farm television commercials, as well as his MVP and his well-received work for NBC on Sunday, might have vaulted him into relatively rare advertising and publicity air. Athletes who have hosted "SNL" include Fran Tarkenton, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Joe Montana, Charles Barkley, Michael Jordan, LeBron James, Nancy Kerrigan and Walter Payton.
Rodgers has mentioned that possibility several times on his ESPN 540 radio show in Milwaukee, and Tuesday he said he met a couple cast members last weekend in Indianapolis, where he worked as part of NBC's pregame show. "I'm hopeful that we can figure something out there," Rodgers said.
I'm trying to make an "SNL"-related joke, but I'm a little dated in my reference points. Hasn't been the same since Matt Foley left permanently for his van down by the river. (#ChrisFarleyRIP.)
In all seriousness, hosting "SNL" is an elite stepping stone for athletes who have crossed into celebrity status. The success of Rodgers' State Farm television commercials, as well as his MVP and his well-received work for NBC on Sunday, might have vaulted him into relatively rare advertising and publicity air. Athletes who have hosted "SNL" include Fran Tarkenton, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Joe Montana, Charles Barkley, Michael Jordan, LeBron James, Nancy Kerrigan and Walter Payton.
Stand up, give yourselves a pat on the back and a round of applause. Two NFC North teams combined for the most prolific passing game in NFL history Sunday. In the wind and snow of Lambeau Field, the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions combined for an NFL-record 971 net yards passing.
Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (520 yards) and the Packers' Matt Flynn (480 yards) produced two of the top three individual passing games of the 2011 season. (The New England Patriots' Tom Brady threw for 517 yards in Week 1 against the Miami Dolphins.) Let's take a closer look:
Matt Flynn
Week 17 passer rating: 136.4
Week 17 QBR: 91.7
Tell-tale number: Since 1960, only two other quarterbacks have thrown for 480 yards and six touchdowns in a game. Both are in the Hall of Fame. One was Y.A. Tittle for the New York Giants in 1962. The other was Joe Namath for the 1972 New York Jets.
Matthew Stafford
Week 17 passer rating: 103.8
Week 17 QBR: 86.2
Tell-tale number: Stafford's 520 yards were the most in a game since Boomer Esiason threw for 522 yards in 1996, and the fifth-most in league history. The huge yardage total also pushed Stafford to 5,038 yards this year. Remember, entering the season, the NFL record for passing yards in a season was 5,084, set by Dan Marino in 1984. Both Drew Brees (5,476) and Tom Brady (5,235) eclipsed Marino's mark this season. But at 23, Stafford finished just 46 yards behind Marino.
Josh McCown
Week 17 passer rating: 75.4
Week 17 QBR: 15.4
Tell-tale number: Sunday was McCown's first win as a starter since Dec. 2, 2007, when he played for the Oakland Raiders. His performance came against a Minnesota Vikings defense that finished the season allowing a 107.6 passer rating to opponents, the second-highest mark in NFL history.
Joe Webb
Week 17 passer rating: 46.4
Week 17 QBR: 19.7
Tell-tale number: The Vikings scored only three points with Webb behind center, but he did throw for 200 yards in about 2 1/2 quarters of play.
Christian Ponder
Week 17 passer rating: 8.3
Week 17 QBR: 1.1
Tell-tale number: Ponder's second-quarter interception was his 13th in 10 starts and a total of 274 attempts. But don't forget that Stafford threw 20 interceptions on 377 attempts in 10 starts as a rookie in 2009. The more important number will be the presumed improvement Ponder makes in 2012. Since his rookie season, Stafford has thrown 17 interceptions in 759 attempts over 19 starts.
Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (520 yards) and the Packers' Matt Flynn (480 yards) produced two of the top three individual passing games of the 2011 season. (The New England Patriots' Tom Brady threw for 517 yards in Week 1 against the Miami Dolphins.) Let's take a closer look:
Matt Flynn
Week 17 passer rating: 136.4
Week 17 QBR: 91.7
Tell-tale number: Since 1960, only two other quarterbacks have thrown for 480 yards and six touchdowns in a game. Both are in the Hall of Fame. One was Y.A. Tittle for the New York Giants in 1962. The other was Joe Namath for the 1972 New York Jets.
Matthew Stafford
Week 17 passer rating: 103.8
Week 17 QBR: 86.2
Tell-tale number: Stafford's 520 yards were the most in a game since Boomer Esiason threw for 522 yards in 1996, and the fifth-most in league history. The huge yardage total also pushed Stafford to 5,038 yards this year. Remember, entering the season, the NFL record for passing yards in a season was 5,084, set by Dan Marino in 1984. Both Drew Brees (5,476) and Tom Brady (5,235) eclipsed Marino's mark this season. But at 23, Stafford finished just 46 yards behind Marino.
Josh McCown
Week 17 passer rating: 75.4
Week 17 QBR: 15.4
Tell-tale number: Sunday was McCown's first win as a starter since Dec. 2, 2007, when he played for the Oakland Raiders. His performance came against a Minnesota Vikings defense that finished the season allowing a 107.6 passer rating to opponents, the second-highest mark in NFL history.
Joe Webb
Week 17 passer rating: 46.4
Week 17 QBR: 19.7
Tell-tale number: The Vikings scored only three points with Webb behind center, but he did throw for 200 yards in about 2 1/2 quarters of play.
Christian Ponder
Week 17 passer rating: 8.3
Week 17 QBR: 1.1
Tell-tale number: Ponder's second-quarter interception was his 13th in 10 starts and a total of 274 attempts. But don't forget that Stafford threw 20 interceptions on 377 attempts in 10 starts as a rookie in 2009. The more important number will be the presumed improvement Ponder makes in 2012. Since his rookie season, Stafford has thrown 17 interceptions in 759 attempts over 19 starts.
MVP poll: Calvin Johnson or Matt Stafford?
December, 21, 2011
12/21/11
3:30
PM ET
By
Kevin Seifert | ESPN.com
As you're probably aware, NFC West colleague Mike Sando posts a weekly MVP Watch to assess the fluid nature of the NFL's most prestigious individual award. Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has stood atop the list for most of this season, but two Detroit Lions players have made appearances from time to time.
Sando's latest post, in fact, puts receiver Calvin Johnson No. 4 on the MVP ballot behind Rodgers, New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees and New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady. Johnson is fresh off a career day against the Oakland Raiders. Meanwhile, Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford is checking in at No. 8.
That order spurred a question for me, and perhaps you as well. So we worked up one of our fancy SportsNation polls to get a collective answer.
In a quarterback-centric league, which Lions player most deserves to be part of the MVP conversation -- Johnson or Stafford? Essentially, you'll need to determine, if possible, which player is more responsible for the Lions' 9-5 record.
As always, comments are welcome.
Have fun with this one.
Related: Stafford talks to ESPN Radio about the Lions' 9-5 start, Ndamukong Suh and his team's chances of reaching the postseason and more.
Sando's latest post, in fact, puts receiver Calvin Johnson No. 4 on the MVP ballot behind Rodgers, New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees and New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady. Johnson is fresh off a career day against the Oakland Raiders. Meanwhile, Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford is checking in at No. 8.
That order spurred a question for me, and perhaps you as well. So we worked up one of our fancy SportsNation polls to get a collective answer.
In a quarterback-centric league, which Lions player most deserves to be part of the MVP conversation -- Johnson or Stafford? Essentially, you'll need to determine, if possible, which player is more responsible for the Lions' 9-5 record.
As always, comments are welcome.
Have fun with this one.
Related: Stafford talks to ESPN Radio about the Lions' 9-5 start, Ndamukong Suh and his team's chances of reaching the postseason and more.
Enough already! Aaron Rodgers is the MVP
November, 30, 2011
11/30/11
1:10
PM ET
By
Kevin Seifert | ESPN.com
Mike Carter/US PresswireAaron Rodgers has thrown at least two touchdown passes in every game this season.With that said, I'm calling on the NFL world to stop with this insanity. Even in America, there are some truths that should be self-evident. One in particular: By every measure imaginable and based on any definition of the award you choose, Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has been the league's MVP so far this season.
My friend and NFC South blogger Pat Yasinskas made a case Monday night for New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees, who is having arguably the best season of his career. ESPN analyst/provocateur Skip Bayless has been questioning Rodgers' credentials for weeks and on Monday suggested New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady for the award. (Bayless also said he would choose Denver Broncos quarterback Tim Tebow at the end of a game over Rodgers. You'll have to watch the video below to see that for yourself.)
It's quite possible to have this discussion without saying a single bad thing about Brees or noting one derogatory aspect about Brady's season. All we have to do is recite this litany: Rodgers has completed a higher percentage of his passes, thrown for more touchdowns, tossed fewer interceptions and won more games than either of them.
Brees (3,689) and Brady (3,627) both have thrown for more yards than Rodgers (3,475), but there is an easy explanation: They both have more attempts. Brees, in fact, has thrown 98 more passes than Rodgers and Brady has 59 additional attempts. A better way to look at their raw production is scaling it to their average yards per attempt. Rodgers (9.6) is averaging a full yard more per attempt than Brady (8.6) and 1.6 more yards than Brees (8.0).
Observers could note that Rodgers has the benefit of playing with an elite collection of offensive players and a program good enough to have won 17 consecutive games. There is no doubt that Rodgers has a deep and diverse group of weapons, but let's also acknowledge that only three of them -- receiver Greg Jennings, receiver Donald Driver and injured left tackle Chad Clifton -- have ever been voted to a Pro Bowl.
Let's at least consider whether their success is as attributable to Rodgers as his is to them. And let's not hold the Packers' winning streak against Rodgers in the MVP argument, especially when you realize they are 11-0 with a defense that has given up the second-most passing yards of any NFL team. Rodgers and the Packers' offense have averaged 31.5 points per game, not including the team's defensive and special-teams touchdowns, to help mitigate those issues.
It's true that Rodgers hasn't led a classic fourth-quarter comeback victory this season. There's a good reason for that: The Packers have outscored opponents 103-27 in the third quarter this season and have never, not once, trailed in the fourth quarter this season. In fact, the Packers haven't trailed in the fourth quarter at all in their ongoing 17-game winning streak, an NFL record. We're going to hold that against Rodgers?
There is no credible statistical or competitive measure that places Rodgers anywhere but the top of the league's best-performing players this season. The quarterback is the most important position in the game. No one is playing it better than Rodgers, and no team has performed at a higher level than the Packers with him as their quarterback.
You might consider the MVP to be the player who provides the most value to his team, and not necessarily the best-performing player in the league. You could argue that the Packers would be better off with backup Matt Flynn at quarterback than the Saints would be with Chase Daniel or the Patriots with Brian Hoyer. But none of them would be Super Bowl contenders without their starting quarterback, and I'm not sure it's fair to diminish Rodgers' value because he might have a better backup.
I almost feel foolish for taking this argument to such great lengths. There really is no reason to overthink this. A lot could happen between now and the end of the regular season. But let's not spend any more time grasping for ways to be fresh or free-thinking. For 11 weeks, no matter how you look at it, Aaron Rodgers has been the best and most valuable player in the NFL.
Air and Space: Jay Cutler's turn with Martz
October, 18, 2011
10/18/11
2:15
PM ET
By
Kevin Seifert | ESPN.com
Andrew Weber/US PresswireBears quarterback Jay Cutler is coming off his two best weeks of the season.Jay Cutler has put together his two best games of the season in consecutive weeks for the Chicago Bears, in the process arriving at nothing less than a career crossroads. In revealing he has at least as good, if not better, sense of the Bears' capabilities than offensive coordinator Mike Martz, Cutler has exposed himself to at least the possibility of a fourth new offensive coordinator in the past five years.
Yes, suggestions are mounting that Martz might not return to Chicago when his contract expires after this season. I know the next coach is always the best option in the minds of many, but I'm far from convinced that Martz needs to move on. In fact, Cutler's career might be best served by finding a way to make it work with him.
Martz has certainly had his share of stumbles since joining the Bears, and for many of you it's gone on too long already. ESPNChicago.com's Melissa Isaacson gave voice to that sentiment, advising the Bears to make Martz a lowball offer and promote offensive line coach Mike Tice in 2012. And without naming Martz, ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer
Much has been made of the obscenity that NBC's microphones caught Cutler directing at the Bears' sideline during Sunday night's 39-10 victory over the Minnesota Vikings. Cutler asked someone to "tell him I said [expletive] you." Martz sits in the coaches booth during games, leading to speculation that he was the target of Cutler's ire.
Afterward, Cutler reminded reporters about his public plea to scale back the Bears offense last week and notably spread credit for Sunday night's success.
"There's a lot of people involved in this," Cutler said. "Mike Tice, me, [quarterbacks coach] Shane Day, [tight end coach Mike DeBord]. Everyone has kind of a say in this and we are all trying to do the right thing and we are all trying to manage what we can and can't do on the football field. When we are smart about it and do the things we did tonight, we are more than likely going to be successful."
Yes, Cutler correctly assessed the Bears' offensive capabilities and shortcomings. That he went public with his ideas suggested he was at least concerned Martz might not oblige. Perhaps it was an end-around. More likely, it was an aggressive nudge. Regardless, you can't argue with the results.
According to film analysis by Dan Pompei of the Chicago Tribune, the Bears used at least six players in pass protection on 23 of their 31 passes. On both of Cutler's touchdown passes, they kept seven blockers in.
Those touchdowns also came on play-action, which the Bears used to near-perfection Sunday night. As the second chart shows, via ESPN Stats & Information, Cutler completed 8 of 9 play-action passes and had a perfect quarterback rating on them. With seven blockers in place, and Matt Forte in the backfield, it's not surprising the Vikings fell for run-fakes on those scores.
Martz also obliged Cutler on quicker passes, calling for five-step drops or shorter on 26 of his 31 passes, according to Pompei.
"We managed them," Cutler said. "A lot of five-steps and play-action, left some extra guys in, shift a little bit. Whenever we help them [the offensive line] out and get the ball out of my hands, it's going to be easy on me. It's not that difficult. Our game plan was really solid this week and we need to be very judicious going forward with what we can do and can't do."
You could interpret those quotes as Cutler propagating his personal preference over Martz's long-held theories. I see it as evidence of a compromise, uncomfortable or otherwise, that if managed correctly will put Cutler in position to maximize his success over the coming years.
One of the key ingredients in the success of NFL quarterbacks is consistency of scheme. It's no accident that the NFL's five highest-rated passers -- Rodgers, Tom Brady, Eli Manning, Stafford and Drew Brees -- are in at least their third consecutive year in the same offensive system. Obviously the scheme must be sound, but talented and smart quarterbacks like Cutler can usually find a productive comfort zone over time.
That's what I see Cutler approaching at this point. What the Bears did Sunday night looked pretty sound to me, even considering it came against a Vikings defense that seemed slow and undermanned.
I don't know whether Cutler likes Martz personally or even if he respects him professionally. But if Cutler can nudge the scheme to his team's benefit, working or tugging with Martz along the way, the Bears would still be better off than if they started Cutler over with a new coordinator next year. Even if that new coach mirrored what the Bears are doing now, there would inevitably be a transition period that would set back Cutler's career.
Being a serial divorcee might work in Hollywood, but in football it stalls progress. As we've said from the beginning of this marriage, both men need each other to advance their careers.
Air and Space: Aaron Rodgers' rare combo
October, 13, 2011
10/13/11
1:00
PM ET
By
Kevin Seifert | ESPN.com
Jeff Hanisch/US PresswireGreen Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers is completing 71.7 percent of his passes and averaging more than 344 yards per game this season.Whoops. Sorry.
No matter what metric you use, I think we can all agree that Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has had the NFL's best start to the season. He has produced the league's top passer rating, is atop the year's Total Quarterback Rating and is a fixture in the No. 1 slot of Mike Sando's MVP Watch over on the NFC West blog.
Around here, we've pretty much run out of ways to tell you all that. But after fiddling around with the excellent Pro Football Reference database, I stumbled onto a slightly different angle. (If you prefer to watch me tell you about it, rather than read any further, check out this week's NFC 411 video below.)
Rodgers has the NFL's top completion percentage (71.7) and is tied for the best average yards per attempt (9.6). Generally speaking, those two categories shouldn't fit together.
Yards per attempt is one way to measure downfield passing proficiency. Of course, several components go into yardage totals, including receivers' open-field running ability and the tackling skills of opponents. But the primary ingredient is the quarterback's success at pushing the ball down the field on passes that are relatively difficult to complete.
As a result, it's extraordinarily difficult to achieve a high completion percentage when you're consistently throwing lower-percentage passes. Consider Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, who last season had the NFL's No. 3 average per attempt (8.2) but its 15th-best completion percentage (61.7).
On the other hand, a high completion percentage can be associated with passes that are easier to complete. Checkdowns and other short passes result in a lower average per attempt. Case in point: New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees had the NFL's highest completion percentage (68.1) last season, but his 7.0-yard average per attempt tied for No. 16 overall.
That disparity should give you some context for what Rodgers has done this season. He's completing a higher percentage of his passes than any other quarterback even while piling up big yardage numbers with what should be lower-percentage throws downfield. He has been more efficient and proficient than any other NFL quarterback, an exceedingly tough combination to achieve.
How tough? Since 1960, only three quarterbacks have posted a completion percentage of 70 or higher and an average yards per attempt of 9.0 or higher in the first five games of the season. The details are in the first chart accompanying this post.
In the entire history of the NFL, only two quarterbacks have ever finished a season (defined as 400 or more throws) with similar numbers. Both of them, Sammy Baugh and Joe Montana, are in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. The second chart shows the top five combined performances in these two categories.
I hope you're with me on how rare and special that type of season is. NFL passing statistics tend to fall off as the weather turns, so we don't know whether Rodgers can or will maintain this pace. But he has a chance at putting together the kind of special season that surpasses what passer rating, QBR and even an MVP award could explain.
Air and Space: Bears' offensive imbalance
September, 29, 2011
9/29/11
12:25
PM ET
By
Kevin Seifert | ESPN.com
It has been interesting this week to hear so many people suggest that the Chicago Bears need to establish an offensive "identity." Chief among them have been general manager Jerry Angelo, who provided this quote to the Bears’ website: "To accomplish the things that we want to be able to do on offense -- regardless of the run/pass ratio -- we have to execute and create an identity for ourselves."
In truth, the Bears have had an obvious identity this season. It might not be the one they need, but there is no mistaking it: The Bears are the pass-happiest team in the NFL.
That’s right. Intuitively, I think we all know the Bears are throwing more often than their personnel can support at this point. But Mark Malzewski of ESPN Stats & Information tells us that no NFL team has called a higher percentage of passes among its total plays than the Bears. The monster chart to your right, formatted by ESPN.com editor Brett Longdin, shows that the Bears are the most imbalanced offense in the NFL.
Malzewski classified sacks and scrambles as passing plays to give us the most accurate view possible. Most statistics are relative, and it's true that the NFL is a pass-happy league where teams are trying to throw on a little more than three of every five plays on average. But that’s what makes the Bears’ ranking here so revealing. A year after a shift toward balance helped win the NFC North, Bears offensive coordinator Mike Martz is calling a higher percentage of passing plays than anyone else.
As Angelo noted in his interview, there is nothing wrong with throwing often when you’re doing it "flawlessly." And I also don’t think you can run the ball for the sake of running it. Last Sunday against the Green Bay Packers, the Bears fell behind 14-0 in the first half and were in catch-up mode for a good portion of the afternoon.
But Martz is calling more passing plays for Jay Cutler than Tom Brady is getting with the New England Patriots, more than Drew Brees of the New Orleans Saints and more than Aaron Rodgers of the Packers. That's not just too much. That's completely out of control.
Meanwhile, the rest of the NFC North is sitting around the NFL average. After a strong and frequent running performance against the Bears, the Packers brought their percentage down to 61.1 percent. The Detroit Lions are at 60.1, and the Minnesota Vikings are at 55.0 with tailback Adrian Peterson the centerpiece of their offense. Those numbers sound reasonable to me.
In truth, the Bears have had an obvious identity this season. It might not be the one they need, but there is no mistaking it: The Bears are the pass-happiest team in the NFL.
That’s right. Intuitively, I think we all know the Bears are throwing more often than their personnel can support at this point. But Mark Malzewski of ESPN Stats & Information tells us that no NFL team has called a higher percentage of passes among its total plays than the Bears. The monster chart to your right, formatted by ESPN.com editor Brett Longdin, shows that the Bears are the most imbalanced offense in the NFL.
Malzewski classified sacks and scrambles as passing plays to give us the most accurate view possible. Most statistics are relative, and it's true that the NFL is a pass-happy league where teams are trying to throw on a little more than three of every five plays on average. But that’s what makes the Bears’ ranking here so revealing. A year after a shift toward balance helped win the NFC North, Bears offensive coordinator Mike Martz is calling a higher percentage of passing plays than anyone else.
As Angelo noted in his interview, there is nothing wrong with throwing often when you’re doing it "flawlessly." And I also don’t think you can run the ball for the sake of running it. Last Sunday against the Green Bay Packers, the Bears fell behind 14-0 in the first half and were in catch-up mode for a good portion of the afternoon.
But Martz is calling more passing plays for Jay Cutler than Tom Brady is getting with the New England Patriots, more than Drew Brees of the New Orleans Saints and more than Aaron Rodgers of the Packers. That's not just too much. That's completely out of control.
Meanwhile, the rest of the NFC North is sitting around the NFL average. After a strong and frequent running performance against the Bears, the Packers brought their percentage down to 61.1 percent. The Detroit Lions are at 60.1, and the Minnesota Vikings are at 55.0 with tailback Adrian Peterson the centerpiece of their offense. Those numbers sound reasonable to me.
Air and Space: McNabb outside the pocket
September, 22, 2011
9/22/11
11:00
AM ET
By
Kevin Seifert | ESPN.com
Steven Bisig/US PresswireDonovan McNabb has completed nearly 73 percent of his throws made outside of the pocket.What I have found particularly interesting, however, is the way the Minnesota Vikings have used new starter Donovan McNabb. Watching the Vikings from an anecdotal perspective, McNabb has seemingly made every throw off some variation of the bootleg that gets him out of the pocket and creates a natural short-range opening for a receiver. The reality, ESPN Stats & Information tells us, isn't that far off.
As the chart shows, McNabb has thrown 11 of his 45 passes this season from outside of the pocket, including his sole touchdown pass, a 3-yard strike to receiver Michael Jenkins in Week 1. Only Colt McCoy of the Cleveland Browns has thrown a higher percentage of his total passes from outside of the pocket, and McCoy is nine years younger than McNabb and more prone to unplanned scrambles.
But the Vikings are purposely getting McNabb outside. They are attempting to capitalize on his career-long success throwing on the move and also want to monetize the respect opponents are showing for tailback Adrian Peterson. It's also worth noting that a bootleg to McNabb's right gets him away from any backside pass rush potentially allowed by new left tackle Charlie Johnson.
To little surprise, McNabb's performance has been dramatically better on those plays than when he has remained in the pocket. He said this week that he's "willing to do whatever it takes to win" and hopes the early threat of a bootleg will soften defensive reactions to Peterson's every move.
"Teams are going to pursue to try to stop him from getting that big run," McNabb said, "which is going to open up lanes outside on the nakeds and boots to get the ball to our receivers on the outside. That's going to happen all throughout the course of the year and we just have to capitalize on the play-action game and get the ball down 15, 20, 25 yards to create some more explosive plays."
To this point, McNabb's eight completed passes on the outside have netted a total of 67 yards. But even if they start netting more yardage, it's difficult to imagine an NFL team winning consistently when its best (and only) passing play is a bootleg. The chances for producing a big play are smaller, and frequency can become predictable.
Like any offense, the Vikings will have to find at least some success via traditional pocket passing. To this point, McNabb has the fewest number of completions on passes thrown from the pocket (17) than any starter in the NFL. For comparison's sake, NFL leader Tom Brady of the New England Patriots has about four times as many.
McNabb accurately noted that the Vikings are finding alternate ways to make explosive plays, noting a 42-yard screen play last Sunday to tailback Toby Gerhart. Ultimately, however, the bootlegs and screens will have to be part of a bigger picture that includes at least the potential to score quickly on traditional downfield passes rather than at the end of long drives.
"I think people are seeing teams throwing deep balls for 60, 70-yard touchdowns," McNabb said. "And that's going to come. But you have to methodically move the ball downfield and move the chains and we [are] able to do that."
BBAO: A passing frenzy in most NFL cities
September, 14, 2011
9/14/11
7:15
AM ET
By
Kevin Seifert | ESPN.com
We're Black and Blue All Over:
We mentioned this note in Tuesday's Stock Watch post, but it's worth repeating here in the Air and Space division: NFL teams combined for a single-week record total of passing yards in Week 1: 7,482.
That number was inflated by New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady, who amassed 517 yards on his own. But it was also, well, deflated by the stunning total of 39 put up by the Donovan McNabb of the Minnesota Vikings. So if you take out the high and low numbers, you see that the other 30 NFL teams averaged 230 passing yards per game in Week 1.
There's no sense taking any cheap shots at the Vikings' total. We've already discussed it in a number of forums. But as preparations begin in earnest for Week 2, it's worth noting that statistically speaking, the NFL has never been more a passing league than it is right now. You can't win without one.
Continuing around the NFC North:
We mentioned this note in Tuesday's Stock Watch post, but it's worth repeating here in the Air and Space division: NFL teams combined for a single-week record total of passing yards in Week 1: 7,482.
That number was inflated by New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady, who amassed 517 yards on his own. But it was also, well, deflated by the stunning total of 39 put up by the Donovan McNabb of the Minnesota Vikings. So if you take out the high and low numbers, you see that the other 30 NFL teams averaged 230 passing yards per game in Week 1.
There's no sense taking any cheap shots at the Vikings' total. We've already discussed it in a number of forums. But as preparations begin in earnest for Week 2, it's worth noting that statistically speaking, the NFL has never been more a passing league than it is right now. You can't win without one.
Continuing around the NFC North:
- The Vikings are close to a sellout of Sunday's home opener against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the game will be televised locally, notes Tom Pelissero of 1500ESPN.com.
- Vikings defensive end Brian Robison is trying to prove the proverbial doubters wrong, writes Jeremy Fowler of the St. Paul Pioneer Press.
- The Vikings' defense is seeking consistency, writes Myron P. Medcalf of the Star Tribune.
- Chicago Bears linebacker Brian Urlacher is tending to a personal matter involving his mother this week and could be away from the team for a few days, notes the Chicago Tribune.
- Mark Potash of the Chicago Sun-Times tells the story of new Bears fullback Tyler Clutts.
- Jon Greenberg of ESPNChicago.com on Bears tailback Matt Forte: "I'm no Jerry Angelo or Tim Ruskell, but Forte looks severely underpaid right around now."
- The Detroit Lions' special teams didn't have its best game against the Bucs last Sunday, writes Carlos Monarrez of the Detroit Free Press.
- Lions tailback Jahvid Best ran 14 of his 21 carries up the middle Sunday, notes Tim Twentyman of the Detroit News.
- Justin Rogers of Mlive.com takes a second look at the Lions' 27-20 victory over the Bucs.
- Tyler Dunne of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel takes a closer look at the final play of the Green Bay Packers' 42-34 victory over the New Orleans Saints.
- Pete Dougherty of the Green Bay Press-Gazette takes a first look at the quarterback the Packers will face this Sunday: rookie Cam Newton of the Carolina Panthers.
- Packers coach Mike McCarthy on rookie Randall Cobb's decision to return a kickoff from 8 yards deep in the end zone, via Jason Wilde of ESPNMilwaukee.com: "That was a minus decision. We spent a lot of time on base rules, base adjustments, of coaching the gray area. Eight yards deep is not gray. That's something you learn from and you take them through where is the line of making it gray when you bring it out and when you don't."
BBAO: Key number in Matt Forte talks
September, 1, 2011
9/01/11
7:30
AM ET
By
Kevin Seifert | ESPN.com
We're Black and Blue All Over:
On Wednesday, we discussed the Chicago Bears' negotiations with tailback Matt Forte in the context of other deals that have been reached around the NFL. Most recently, the San Francisco 49ers agreed on a three-year extension with tailback Frank Gore. The deal is worth $21 million and includes $13.5 million in guarantees.
How do the Bears value Forte, and how does he value himself? Michael C. Wright of ESPNChicago.com gives us a glimpse by reporting the team has offered a deal that includes about $15 million guaranteed. Unknown at this point is how many years the Bears are offering; generally speaking, more years equals more guaranteed money.
The only urgency for either side to strike a deal at this point is that Forte's value could change once the regular season begins. An injury could lower his value, while some monster games could increase the commitment the Bears will need to make in order to secure him. I guess there is a concern about the distraction of negotiations during the regular season, but to me it's a positive to have a player motivated by as many factors as possible.
Continuing around the NFC North:
On Wednesday, we discussed the Chicago Bears' negotiations with tailback Matt Forte in the context of other deals that have been reached around the NFL. Most recently, the San Francisco 49ers agreed on a three-year extension with tailback Frank Gore. The deal is worth $21 million and includes $13.5 million in guarantees.
How do the Bears value Forte, and how does he value himself? Michael C. Wright of ESPNChicago.com gives us a glimpse by reporting the team has offered a deal that includes about $15 million guaranteed. Unknown at this point is how many years the Bears are offering; generally speaking, more years equals more guaranteed money.
The only urgency for either side to strike a deal at this point is that Forte's value could change once the regular season begins. An injury could lower his value, while some monster games could increase the commitment the Bears will need to make in order to secure him. I guess there is a concern about the distraction of negotiations during the regular season, but to me it's a positive to have a player motivated by as many factors as possible.
Continuing around the NFC North:
- Few Bears starters are expected to play in Thursday's preseason finale against the Cleveland Browns, according to Wright.
- The Bears have received a roster exemption for running back Harvey Unga, who has taken an extended leave of absence, according to Sean Jensen of the Chicago Sun-Times.
- The Bears aren't concerned about a lack of pass rush this summer, writes Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune.
- The Ramsey (Minn.) County Charter Commission will hold two public hearings and then decide whether to call a voter referendum on the Minnesota Vikings' stadium proposal. Rochelle Olson of the Star Tribune has more.
- Vikings linebacker Jasper Brinkley has undergone hip surgery, according to Dave Campbell of the Associated Press.
- Vikings rookie quarterback Christian Ponder has been a work in progress this summer, writes Tom Pelissero of 1500ESPN.com.
- Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel examines a glaring mistake Green Bay Packers safety Morgan Burnett made in last Friday's preseason game against the Indianapolis Colts.
- Kareem Copeland of the Green Bay Press-Gazette looks at some of the players on the bubble entering Thursday night's preseason game against the Kansas City Chiefs.
- Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers will play a series at most and might not play at all Thursday night, writes Jason Wilde of ESPNMilwaukee.com.
- Most Detroit Lions starters will play briefly Thursday night against the Buffalo Bills, according to Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press.
- Detroit Lions president Tom Lewand, via Rod Beard of the Detroit News: "We've never had [10] guys that all 31 teams would trade their eye tooth for and we wouldn't give up for anything. That tells you something about where we've been, but more importantly, where we're going."
- Lions defensive tackle Corey Williams had a brutal but completely legal hit on New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady last weekend, notes Philip Zaroo of Mlive.com.
Ndamukong Suh: The 3,200-pound sack
August, 29, 2011
8/29/11
10:45
AM ET
By
Kevin Seifert | ESPN.com
On Saturday afternoon, we discussed whether NFL teams need to hide the women and children when they face Ndamukong Suh and the Detroit Lions pass rush. Saturday night, the Lions battered New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady in a manner rarely seen during a preseason game.
Brady didn't exactly retreat to a fallout shelter, but he never established a rhythm and wasn't his normal accurate self (12 completions in 22 attempts). That's what any good pass rush hopes to impose on opposing quarterbacks, whether it's a future Hall of Famer or an undrafted rookie.
The Lions sacked Brady twice and hit him five other times, and Suh made clear afterwards that the Lions were hoping to defeat both the mind and body.
"To be honest with you, I didn't pay attention to his emotions," Suh said when asked if he thought Brady succumbed to the pressure. "My job is to continue to rattle him, get after him, and be in his face. When he starts yelling at me, like, 'leave me alone', that is when I know I have completed my job. ... He didn't talk too much today. He is a good player and I respect him a lot...."
I'm both amused and impressed that, with a relatively straight face, we're discussing how the Detroit Lions defense planned to (and perhaps succeeded in) intimidating one of the toughest and best quarterbacks in NFL history -- in a preseason game, no less. So why not reinforce the growing legend of Suh by recalling his classic appearance on ESPN's Sports Science in the spring of 2010?
As the video shows, Sports Science measured Suh with the quickest reaction to the snap of any player in the 2010 draft. He also "sacked" a "quarterback" with the equivalent of 3,200 pounds of force -- a record in Sports Science research. Quite literally, he was an unprecedented combination of quickness and strength.
Like anything else, these measurements are but one way to evaluate a football player. But go ahead and watch how Suh crushed the "quarterback" and ask yourself if any NFL quarterback wants any piece of that.
(Thanks to Kaitee Daley for digging out the video.)
Brady didn't exactly retreat to a fallout shelter, but he never established a rhythm and wasn't his normal accurate self (12 completions in 22 attempts). That's what any good pass rush hopes to impose on opposing quarterbacks, whether it's a future Hall of Famer or an undrafted rookie.
The Lions sacked Brady twice and hit him five other times, and Suh made clear afterwards that the Lions were hoping to defeat both the mind and body.
"To be honest with you, I didn't pay attention to his emotions," Suh said when asked if he thought Brady succumbed to the pressure. "My job is to continue to rattle him, get after him, and be in his face. When he starts yelling at me, like, 'leave me alone', that is when I know I have completed my job. ... He didn't talk too much today. He is a good player and I respect him a lot...."
I'm both amused and impressed that, with a relatively straight face, we're discussing how the Detroit Lions defense planned to (and perhaps succeeded in) intimidating one of the toughest and best quarterbacks in NFL history -- in a preseason game, no less. So why not reinforce the growing legend of Suh by recalling his classic appearance on ESPN's Sports Science in the spring of 2010?
As the video shows, Sports Science measured Suh with the quickest reaction to the snap of any player in the 2010 draft. He also "sacked" a "quarterback" with the equivalent of 3,200 pounds of force -- a record in Sports Science research. Quite literally, he was an unprecedented combination of quickness and strength.
Like anything else, these measurements are but one way to evaluate a football player. But go ahead and watch how Suh crushed the "quarterback" and ask yourself if any NFL quarterback wants any piece of that.
(Thanks to Kaitee Daley for digging out the video.)

Preseason: Lions, QB Stafford are on it
August, 28, 2011
8/28/11
7:15
AM ET
By
Kevin Seifert | ESPN.com
Reviewing Saturday's action at Ford Field:
Detroit Lions 34, New England Patriots 10
Preseason record: 3-0
Of interest: I would suggest jumping on the Matthew Stafford bandwagon now -- if there is still room. Stafford was again accurate, composed and productive in what might have been the most impressive performance (preseason or otherwise) in his career. He completed 12 of 14 passes for 200 yards and two touchdowns, and one of his "misses" was an end zone pass to receiver Nate Burleson that could have been caught. He now has a 154.0 passer rating this preseason, having completed 24 of 31 passes for 356 yards and five touchdowns. And this bonus: He absorbed his first hits of the preseason Saturday night and emerged no worse for the wear. Look out. ... Stafford benefited from two really nice plays, a 52-yard catch-and-run on a screen by running back Jerome Harrison, and a great adjustment on an underthrown ball by receiver Calvin Johnson for a 30-yard gain. ... Did you see Burleson's downfield block on Harrison's screen? ... Tailback Aaron Brown started and rushed for 30 yards on nine carries, but it's clear that depth at the position remains in flux. ... The Lions defense swarmed Patriots quarterback Tom Brady, sacking him twice, forcing a fumble and unofficially hitting him five times as he managed to complete only 12 of his 22 passes. ... Defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh was lucky not to be penalized for a retaliation hit on Patriots offensive lineman Logan Mankins. ... The Lions led 17-3 when they began inserting second-team defensive players.
Local coverage: Stafford on his preseason, via Philip Zaroo of Mlive.com: "It's been positive. I felt comfortable for the most part tonight. Whoever's out there, we've done a great job and that's a testament to our coaches. They do a great job of preparing us.'' ... Michael Rosenberg of the Detroit Free Press: "I've seen enough. Stafford will be the Lions' first Pro Bowl quarterback in four decades -- if not this year, then soon. He is legit. I'm sold." ... Coach Jim Schwartz, via Tom Kowalski of Mlive.com: "It's preseason, you have to be careful about how you look it. I think that other than the final score we have to look at individual matchups. There were a couple of plays where we could've put more points on the board. But, again, you say a lot of times in preseason you want see players win you don't want to see schemes win. We saw a lot of good matchups today and not just our first group against their first group.'' ... John Niyo of the Detroit News: "You've got to be careful not to completely dismiss what you see on the field in August."
Up next: Thursday at Buffalo Bills
Detroit Lions 34, New England Patriots 10
Preseason record: 3-0
Of interest: I would suggest jumping on the Matthew Stafford bandwagon now -- if there is still room. Stafford was again accurate, composed and productive in what might have been the most impressive performance (preseason or otherwise) in his career. He completed 12 of 14 passes for 200 yards and two touchdowns, and one of his "misses" was an end zone pass to receiver Nate Burleson that could have been caught. He now has a 154.0 passer rating this preseason, having completed 24 of 31 passes for 356 yards and five touchdowns. And this bonus: He absorbed his first hits of the preseason Saturday night and emerged no worse for the wear. Look out. ... Stafford benefited from two really nice plays, a 52-yard catch-and-run on a screen by running back Jerome Harrison, and a great adjustment on an underthrown ball by receiver Calvin Johnson for a 30-yard gain. ... Did you see Burleson's downfield block on Harrison's screen? ... Tailback Aaron Brown started and rushed for 30 yards on nine carries, but it's clear that depth at the position remains in flux. ... The Lions defense swarmed Patriots quarterback Tom Brady, sacking him twice, forcing a fumble and unofficially hitting him five times as he managed to complete only 12 of his 22 passes. ... Defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh was lucky not to be penalized for a retaliation hit on Patriots offensive lineman Logan Mankins. ... The Lions led 17-3 when they began inserting second-team defensive players.
Local coverage: Stafford on his preseason, via Philip Zaroo of Mlive.com: "It's been positive. I felt comfortable for the most part tonight. Whoever's out there, we've done a great job and that's a testament to our coaches. They do a great job of preparing us.'' ... Michael Rosenberg of the Detroit Free Press: "I've seen enough. Stafford will be the Lions' first Pro Bowl quarterback in four decades -- if not this year, then soon. He is legit. I'm sold." ... Coach Jim Schwartz, via Tom Kowalski of Mlive.com: "It's preseason, you have to be careful about how you look it. I think that other than the final score we have to look at individual matchups. There were a couple of plays where we could've put more points on the board. But, again, you say a lot of times in preseason you want see players win you don't want to see schemes win. We saw a lot of good matchups today and not just our first group against their first group.'' ... John Niyo of the Detroit News: "You've got to be careful not to completely dismiss what you see on the field in August."
Up next: Thursday at Buffalo Bills
» AFC Future Stars: East | West | North | South » NFC: East | West | North | South
A look at the players I expect to be the most dominant in the NFC North from 2014 to 2016:
As you know by now, ESPN.com invited readers this week to collaborate on a future Dream Team of NFL players. Projected target: The 2014-16 seasons. I wasn't among the experts who winnowed the list of nominations, and I'm fully aware that some deserving young NFC North players didn't make the cut.
My assignment for this post isn't to rectify those omissions. Rather, I need to list the division players I project as the most dominant three years from now. We obviously can't account for injuries, future draft picks or free agency movement, so we will cull from our burgeoning list of young stars.
Sorry, fans of the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings. I refused to pick a player from each team just to be polite. The players all came from one NFC North pool. In alphabetical order:
Greg Jennings and Calvin Johnson, Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions receivers (tie): Call it a cop-out if you want. I've consistently maintained I would take the present-day Johnson over the present-day Jennings because of his freaky and unique skills for the position. But in three years? While I think both players will still be highly productive, Johnson has a greater capacity for physical deterioration over time. But in 2014, he'll only be 28. Jennings will be 30. It's a draw.
Clay Matthews, Packers linebacker: We know this: Matthews is off to one of the best career starts of any pass-rushing linebacker. He had 17 sacks in his first 20 NFL games and overall has 23.5 in his first two seasons. You might wonder what will happen if Matthews loses a bit of speed or wears down physically, but I'll take my chances that he will still be in pretty good shape in his sixth NFL season. He'll be 28 in 2014.
Aaron Rodgers, Packers quarterback: Put simply, Rodgers' first three seasons as a starter have been as productive as any quarterback currently enshrined in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. At the start of the 2014 season, he'll be 30 and presumably in the wheelhouse of his career. At that point, Rodgers might have outlasted Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees, presumably ascending to the figurative mantle of the game's top quarterback.
Ndamukong Suh, Lions defensive tackle: It's hard to bet against a player who was one of two rookies -- ever -- to record 10 sacks as a rookie defensive tackle. Suh is a physical specimen who works hard at his conditioning and figures to be surrounded by talented players for several years. He'll be 27 in 2014 and should still be one of the NFL's most disruptive interior playmakers.
Honorable mention: Bears offensive tackle Gabe Carimi; Lions safety Louis Delmas; Vikings receiver Percy Harvin; Packers tight end Jermichael Finley, whom I passed over because of his contract uncertainty; Lions tight end Brandon Pettigrew; Packers nose tackle B.J. Raji; Packers guard Josh Sitton; Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford; Packers cornerback Tramon Williams, who will be 31 in 2014. As for the NFC North's top two runners of today, Adrian Peterson and Matt Forte, I questioned the impact of three more seasons on the traditionally short-lived career of a running back.
A look at the players I expect to be the most dominant in the NFC North from 2014 to 2016:
As you know by now, ESPN.com invited readers this week to collaborate on a future Dream Team of NFL players. Projected target: The 2014-16 seasons. I wasn't among the experts who winnowed the list of nominations, and I'm fully aware that some deserving young NFC North players didn't make the cut.
My assignment for this post isn't to rectify those omissions. Rather, I need to list the division players I project as the most dominant three years from now. We obviously can't account for injuries, future draft picks or free agency movement, so we will cull from our burgeoning list of young stars.
Sorry, fans of the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings. I refused to pick a player from each team just to be polite. The players all came from one NFC North pool. In alphabetical order:
Greg Jennings and Calvin Johnson, Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions receivers (tie): Call it a cop-out if you want. I've consistently maintained I would take the present-day Johnson over the present-day Jennings because of his freaky and unique skills for the position. But in three years? While I think both players will still be highly productive, Johnson has a greater capacity for physical deterioration over time. But in 2014, he'll only be 28. Jennings will be 30. It's a draw.
[+] Enlarge
Al Bello/Getty ImagesClay Matthews has notched 23.5 sacks in his first two seasons in the league.
Al Bello/Getty ImagesClay Matthews has notched 23.5 sacks in his first two seasons in the league.Aaron Rodgers, Packers quarterback: Put simply, Rodgers' first three seasons as a starter have been as productive as any quarterback currently enshrined in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. At the start of the 2014 season, he'll be 30 and presumably in the wheelhouse of his career. At that point, Rodgers might have outlasted Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees, presumably ascending to the figurative mantle of the game's top quarterback.
Ndamukong Suh, Lions defensive tackle: It's hard to bet against a player who was one of two rookies -- ever -- to record 10 sacks as a rookie defensive tackle. Suh is a physical specimen who works hard at his conditioning and figures to be surrounded by talented players for several years. He'll be 27 in 2014 and should still be one of the NFL's most disruptive interior playmakers.
Honorable mention: Bears offensive tackle Gabe Carimi; Lions safety Louis Delmas; Vikings receiver Percy Harvin; Packers tight end Jermichael Finley, whom I passed over because of his contract uncertainty; Lions tight end Brandon Pettigrew; Packers nose tackle B.J. Raji; Packers guard Josh Sitton; Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford; Packers cornerback Tramon Williams, who will be 31 in 2014. As for the NFC North's top two runners of today, Adrian Peterson and Matt Forte, I questioned the impact of three more seasons on the traditionally short-lived career of a running back.
From Tuesday: First, ESPN Radio's Colin Cowherd asked Green Bay Packers safety Nick Collins to name the toughest quarterback to intercept in the NFL.
Easy.
Tom Brady of the New England Patriots.
(Clearly, Collins had checked out ESPN.com's Power Rankings this week.)
Then, Cowherd asked: Who is the easiest?
"You know," Collins said, "I do have my fair share against, I think, against Jay Cutler. But he is still a good quarterback. I take nothing from Jay. But at the end of the day I do get a good read on him on certain plays. So, but I would say Jay."
Collins has three interceptions in four games since Cutler became the Chicago Bears' quarterback in 2009.
The entire interview is available for your listening pleasure
.
The floor is open for your mudslinging pleasure.
Easy.
Tom Brady of the New England Patriots.
(Clearly, Collins had checked out ESPN.com's Power Rankings this week.)
Then, Cowherd asked: Who is the easiest?
"You know," Collins said, "I do have my fair share against, I think, against Jay Cutler. But he is still a good quarterback. I take nothing from Jay. But at the end of the day I do get a good read on him on certain plays. So, but I would say Jay."
Collins has three interceptions in four games since Cutler became the Chicago Bears' quarterback in 2009.
The entire interview is available for your listening pleasure
The floor is open for your mudslinging pleasure.


This season, Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has become the first QB to ever post a 110-plus rating in 11 consecutive games. 
