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For those of you who keep track of such things, let it be known that ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer has made an about-face on the future of Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler.

It was only a year ago when Dilfer said that poor mechanics would limit Cutler's career until he committed to fixing them. "He could be an elite player in this league, but he won't be until he dedicates himself to dealing with the basic things that will bring out and maximize his potential," Dilfer said. "They tend to show up, the laziness with his mechanics, the flaws show up, late in games, red zones, critical downs, tight games."

In this recent "QBs on the Clock" video, Dilfer named Cutler as an NFL quarterback most likely to step into elite status.

"I think Jay Cutler is going to blow up this year," Dilfer said. "I saw so much last year. I think once I saw it in person, being at 'Monday Night Football.' Watching his demeanor. The body language changed. The toughness. The talent has always been there. I saw him pay more attention to detail."

Draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. chose Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford, pointing out: "I've loved him since high school."

I realize you are split on the value of outside analysis, but I think we can agree we found out how good Cutler can be last season. Dilfer might have said it with more flamboyance, but especially after the acquisition of receiver Brandon Marshall, I expect many outside analysts to hop on the Cutler bandwagon in the coming months.

» NFC Stock Watch: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

FALLING

1. Secondary play in Chicago and Minnesota: Between the two of them, the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings have maybe one or two defensive backs who should be considered 2012 starters heading into the offseason. Bears cornerback Charles Tillman qualifies, and perhaps Vikings cornerback Antoine Winfield will as well if he returns healthy from a fractured collarbone. Otherwise, the Bears and Vikings need a serious overhaul to their defensive backfields. Both teams tried season-long rotations at safety, neither of which led to any personnel conclusions, and cornerback play outside of Tillman has been atrocious for both teams. It will probably be a multiyear process for these franchises to rebuild these positions. With Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler in this division, they better hurry.

2. Christian Ponder, Minnesota Vikings quarterback: We all remember ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer's harsh criticism of Ponder shortly after the draft. In brief, Dilfer said Ponder looks the part of an NFL quarterback but quickly falls from his comfort zone and loses accuracy under pressure. Dilfer softened some of that analysis after Ponder's relatively strong debut, but we should note that Ponder has been one of the NFL's worst quarterbacks against extra pass-rushers this season. According to ESPN Stats & Information, he is completing about 39 percent of his passes when opponents send five or more pass-rushers. The only player with less success against the blitz? Denver Broncos quarterback/running back Tim Tebow. It's not necessarily a warning sign if a rookie doesn't perform well under pressure, but to this point Ponder's performance hasn't veered much from Dilfer's original analysis.

3. Marion Barber, Bears running back: Barber's mental errors in a loss earlier this month to the Broncos, and his inability to keep his troublesome calf healthy, would seem to spell the end of his short tenure with the Bears. Kahlil Bell's hard-charging 123-yard performance Sunday night offers the Bears a much younger option for the role of backing up starter Matt Forte. It was a nice run, as they say.

RISING

1. Home-field advantage: The Packers have a quirky history when it comes to playing at home in the playoffs. In the big picture, the state of Wisconsin has provided one of the best home-field advantages in professional sports. The Packers are 15-3 all-time at home in the playoffs, including games played in Milwaukee. But those three losses have come in their past five playoff games at home: In 2003 to the Atlanta Falcons, in 2004 to the Vikings and 2007 to the New York Giants. One of the two victories, meanwhile, came in overtime to the Seattle Seahawks. Recently, at least, opponents haven't been intimidated by playing at Lambeau Field.

2. Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit Lions tight end: A significant debate erupted in 2009 when the Lions used the No. 20 overall pick to draft Pettigrew, passing up offensive lineman Michael Oher and receiver Percy Harvin, among others. But the Lions insisted that a multi-faceted tight end was critical to their offense, and they have followed through by utilizing Pettigrew as much as any team in the NFL. The Lions have used him as an extension of their running game, and although he is averaging a modest 8.7 yards per reception, his total of 76 catches ranks third among tight ends. By all accounts, Pettigrew is an excellent blocker as well. The Lions have gotten by this far with Jeff Backus and Gosder Cherilus as their tackles, minimizing the need for Oher. And while Harvin would have been a nice addition, the Lions have found value by signing veteran Nate Burleson and using a second-round pick to draft Titus Young.

3. T.J. Lang, Green Bay Packers offensive lineman: When the season began, how many people would have chosen Lang as the Packers' most valuable offensive lineman? Not me. Lang had been an inconsistent starter and player who couldn't find a position and was behind a rookie on the depth chart when the season began. But Lang outplayed first-round pick Derek Sherrod in camp to win the left guard job and has provided a seamless transition from departed starter Daryn Colledge. And when the Packers needed someone to jump over to right tackle after injuries to Bryan Bulaga and Sherrod, Lang successfully made the move. On Sunday night, at least, he held his own against Bears pass-rushers Julius Peppers and Israel Idonije. Center Scott Wells might be the Packers' best offensive lineman this season, but not many left guards could jump out to right tackle as well as Lang appeared to do Sunday night.

Most of you recall ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer's visceral reaction this spring when the Minnesota Vikings drafted quarterback Christian Ponder with the No. 12 overall pick. Dilfer painted Ponder as a pretty-looking quarterback who doesn't stand in the pocket and make tough, accurate and clutch throws when under pressure.

So it was worth checking back with Dilfer after Ponder's first two NFL starts drew wide praise for his poise, especially on third down. In this ESPN Insider piece on rookie quarterbacks, Dilfer said he is impressed "thus far" with Ponder, specifically mentioning his mobility, "arm talent" and ability to find windows in the zone.

Dilfer qualifies his assessment in this way:

The question now is still the one I had of him when he was drafted, however. Ponder may throw well on the run, but is he resorting to the run too quickly? Quarterbacks in this league don't simply take off, they move with a purpose, and a lot of that is stepping up, or side to side in very subtle fashion, having a sense of the chaos around you and which way it's moving. Ponder still needs to show that he can get past Stage 2, and react to what defenses are trying to do, as they'll clearly start to adjust. He's helped because with Adrian Peterson in the backfield, teams can't really make Ponder the main target of the defense, but they can certainly adjust for what he does well. The question is whether he can adjust back. It's too early to tell just now.

The nation will have an opportunity to make its own judgment Monday night.

Aaron Rodgers is chasing history, Matthew Stafford is establishing credibility and Christian Ponder is awaiting his opportunity. With so many quarterback developments here in the NFC North, it has been easy to overlook perhaps the most fascinating figure of them all.

Jay Cutler has put together his two best games of the season in consecutive weeks for the Chicago Bears, in the process arriving at nothing less than a career crossroads. In revealing he has at least as good, if not better, sense of the Bears' capabilities than offensive coordinator Mike Martz, Cutler has exposed himself to at least the possibility of a fourth new offensive coordinator in the past five years.


Yes, suggestions are mounting that Martz might not return to Chicago when his contract expires after this season. I know the next coach is always the best option in the minds of many, but I'm far from convinced that Martz needs to move on. In fact, Cutler's career might be best served by finding a way to make it work with him.

Martz has certainly had his share of stumbles since joining the Bears, and for many of you it's gone on too long already. ESPNChicago.com's Melissa Isaacson gave voice to that sentiment, advising the Bears to make Martz a lowball offer and promote offensive line coach Mike Tice in 2012. And without naming Martz, ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer wrote that Cutler "needs to be around a coach, someone he trusts, someone who can tap into whatever passion is there and bring it out."

Much has been made of the obscenity that NBC's microphones caught Cutler directing at the Bears' sideline during Sunday night's 39-10 victory over the Minnesota Vikings. Cutler asked someone to "tell him I said [expletive] you." Martz sits in the coaches booth during games, leading to speculation that he was the target of Cutler's ire.

Afterward, Cutler reminded reporters about his public plea to scale back the Bears offense last week and notably spread credit for Sunday night's success.

"There's a lot of people involved in this," Cutler said. "Mike Tice, me, [quarterbacks coach] Shane Day, [tight end coach Mike DeBord]. Everyone has kind of a say in this and we are all trying to do the right thing and we are all trying to manage what we can and can't do on the football field. When we are smart about it and do the things we did tonight, we are more than likely going to be successful."

Yes, Cutler correctly assessed the Bears' offensive capabilities and shortcomings. That he went public with his ideas suggested he was at least concerned Martz might not oblige. Perhaps it was an end-around. More likely, it was an aggressive nudge. Regardless, you can't argue with the results.

According to film analysis by Dan Pompei of the Chicago Tribune, the Bears used at least six players in pass protection on 23 of their 31 passes. On both of Cutler's touchdown passes, they kept seven blockers in.

Those touchdowns also came on play-action, which the Bears used to near-perfection Sunday night. As the second chart shows, via ESPN Stats & Information, Cutler completed 8 of 9 play-action passes and had a perfect quarterback rating on them. With seven blockers in place, and Matt Forte in the backfield, it's not surprising the Vikings fell for run-fakes on those scores.

Martz also obliged Cutler on quicker passes, calling for five-step drops or shorter on 26 of his 31 passes, according to Pompei.

"We managed them," Cutler said. "A lot of five-steps and play-action, left some extra guys in, shift a little bit. Whenever we help them [the offensive line] out and get the ball out of my hands, it's going to be easy on me. It's not that difficult. Our game plan was really solid this week and we need to be very judicious going forward with what we can do and can't do."

You could interpret those quotes as Cutler propagating his personal preference over Martz's long-held theories. I see it as evidence of a compromise, uncomfortable or otherwise, that if managed correctly will put Cutler in position to maximize his success over the coming years.

One of the key ingredients in the success of NFL quarterbacks is consistency of scheme. It's no accident that the NFL's five highest-rated passers -- Rodgers, Tom Brady, Eli Manning, Stafford and Drew Brees -- are in at least their third consecutive year in the same offensive system. Obviously the scheme must be sound, but talented and smart quarterbacks like Cutler can usually find a productive comfort zone over time.

That's what I see Cutler approaching at this point. What the Bears did Sunday night looked pretty sound to me, even considering it came against a Vikings defense that seemed slow and undermanned.

I don't know whether Cutler likes Martz personally or even if he respects him professionally. But if Cutler can nudge the scheme to his team's benefit, working or tugging with Martz along the way, the Bears would still be better off than if they started Cutler over with a new coordinator next year. Even if that new coach mirrored what the Bears are doing now, there would inevitably be a transition period that would set back Cutler's career.

Being a serial divorcee might work in Hollywood, but in football it stalls progress. As we've said from the beginning of this marriage, both men need each other to advance their careers.

DETROIT -- Greetings from the general Detroit Metro area, where people keep telling me that Monday night will feel like a playoff atmosphere at Ford Field. I can tell you this much: Members of the tourist industry -- airline employees, car rental agents and hotel staff -- are all decked out in their Detroit Lions garb. When you arrive in Detroit, there is no doubt a football game is fixin' to be played.

That's a start!

I'll be heading downtown in a few hours. But first I wanted to hit a topic that ESPN's Trent Dilfer treated with better context than I could. In his weekly ESPN Insider column, Dilfer breaks down the Lions' offense in a way I haven't seen before.

First, the raw numbers from ESPN Stats & Information:

Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford has thrown 88 percent of his passes (141 of 161) from the shotgun. Through the first four weeks of the season, Stafford had thrown 27 more shotgun passes than the next most-frequent NFL quarterback.

But an interesting thing has happened on the rare occasion when Stafford has taken a traditional center snap. He's completed 15 of those 20 passes, including six for touchdowns, and hasn't thrown an interception.

Dilfer, naturally has a strong opinion on this dynamic. He thinks the Lions are smart to be in the spread as often as they are, considering their lack of a power running game and the premium they're putting on protecting Stafford. Their success in the small sample of under-center plays should not spur them to do more of it, Dilfer writes. Instead, it reflects in several cases an audible by Stafford. In others, the Lions lucked into favorable matchups.

Many NFL teams use the shotgun, some as their most popular formation. But Dilfer writes that Lions offensive coordinator Scott Linehan has devised the NFL's purest form of the spread offense that he's seen:

Without getting into all the nuances of the various spread offenses you see at the college level, I'll say this: In reviewing the film, I've watched every snap the Lions have taken on offense this season (more than once, in fact), and I don't remember a team running a system closer to what, say, Kevin Wilson was running for years at Oklahoma, producing a run of great quarterbacks. Even New England isn't quite like this, and Tom Brady is in the shotgun constantly. But that's what the Lions under offensive coordinator Scott Linehan are doing this season.

As we get closer to game time Monday, the Chicago Bears should know what the Lions plan to do. How to stop it will be their challenge. If you're interested, here is a handy filter link for all of our "MNF in Detroit" posts over the past week.

This week's Have at It covered the NFC North's four offensive playcallers. It quickly turned into a debate between two men: Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy and Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Scott Linehan.

I asked who you would hire to call plays on a new staff. Most of you eliminated Minnesota Vikings offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave based on his thin two-game résumé in the NFC North. And let's just say that Chicago Bears offensive coordinator Mike Martz isn't high on many lists -- at least those who want to see the Bears win games.

Wrote duckieduck78: "Usually OCs call plays that emphasize teams' strengths. Martz calls plays that expose teams' weaknesses."

Our SportsNation poll left McCarthy a clear winner with about 60 percent of more than 8,000 votes. Your comments were a bit less definitive, but sgunderson17 offered this blunt assessment: "MM, hands down. You don't win a SB with a coach that can't shred the Steelers defense."

I was a little surprised by how many of you are down on McCarthy's fourth-quarter play-calling, presumably when the Packers are leading. Biggest Cheese: "Play calling goes ultra-conservative, and we basically let teams back in. I'd take McCarthy in Q1-3."

Wrote ellamont76: "McCarthy needs to improve his 'four-minute offense' where they need to run out the clock at the end of a game with a lead. They seem to have trouble transitioning from pedal-to-the-metal to grind it out and chew up clock."

3c3PO19 termed this debate "a weird one for Packer fans" and added: "He does seem to back off the offense's strengths later in the game to try and grind out wins. While we understand that 'grind-out' nature limits turnovers and eats clock, I think we have all seen enough teams 'catch' the Pack to know he is playing with fire by not utilizing the weapons he has for a full 60 minutes. I still think MM is at the top based purely on past performance. But he's not perfect."

I think I get what you're saying, even if it might be an overreaction relative to the big picture. In Week 1 against the New Orleans Saints, for example, the Packers took a 42-27 lead early in the fourth quarter. Then they ran on five consecutive plays to open their next possession, had two unsuccessful passing plays and punted.

The series took nearly five minutes off the clock but obviously left enough time for the Saints to make things interesting. But if the Packers had opened that drive with a few passes that stopped the clock, I imagine many of you would be just as upset, if not more.

Few of you had anything bad to say about Linehan. In fact, the only time I've heard him criticized as a playcaller came when he was with the Vikings in 2004, when he got a little too cute at the end of a game against the Seattle Seahawks; a reverse pass by receiver Randy Moss halted a Vikings comeback.

For the most part, however, you recognized Linehan as flexible, open-minded and humble enough to recognize that what works best isn't always what he would prefer to do.

Wrote Zumayander: "Linehan seems to take Mike Martz's best quality, his aggressiveness as a playcaller, and temper it by making the scheme fit the personnel and maximizing potential."

Bobbyg640 thinks "Linehan gets the best out of his players" and praised his ability to craft an increasingly productive scheme without the benefit of a strong running game: "In spite of their weak ground game, they have been one of the highest scoring offenses over the past two seasons."

ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer offered some kind words in his weekly Insider column, writing that he likes Linehan "because he succeeds without being overly complicated." Linehan, wrote Dilfer, "finds successful plays, then runs plays off those plays, adding deception out of familiar setups. Defensive players will tell you, the gimmicky formations aren't as hard to deal with as teams that use the same formations to do a lot of different things. That's Linehan."

My take? Dilfer listed Linehan as an "underrated playcaller," and if anything, I hope this exercise brought to light that Linehan is running one of the NFL's top offenses. Regardless of what you might think of his time as the St. Louis Rams' head coach, Linehan has successfully developed quarterbacks and offensive schemes at every stop of his career as a coordinator.

With that said, I'm not sure if McCarthy gets enough credit for his creativity and his willingness to try new things. And I would classify your objections to his "four-minute" offense under game management rather than play calling.

Otherwise, let's not forget that on the way to their Super Bowl XLV victory, the Packers used more five-receiver sets and more three-back formations than any other NFL team. You don't see teams finding more distinctive spots on the NFL spectrum than that. And this season, McCarthy has unveiled a modified no-huddle offense that will give opponents a new wrinkle to consider.

Some of you might be tempted to give quarterback Aaron Rodgers credit for making calls or changing some plays at the line of scrimmage. That's fine. Rodgers is following the template McCarthy has established. After last season and the first two games of 2011, I think McCarthy deserves the benefit of our doubt.

Identifying connections is a good start in predicting NFL player movement.

The next step is evaluating that connection.

That thought came to mind recently while reading once again about the Seattle Seahawks' apparent interest in Minnesota Vikings quarterback Tarvaris Jackson, a pending free agent who is not expected to return.

ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer first began discussing Jackson's name last month. It makes sense considering Seahawks offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell held the same role with the Vikings during Jackson's entire tenure. Tom Pelissero of 1500ESPN.com, meanwhile, reported the Seahawks have done their "due diligence" on Jackson.

No current NFL coach has more background with Jackson than Bevell. Former head coach Brad Childress is out of the game as of the moment, and former Vikings quarterbacks coach Kevin Rogers is now the offensive coordinator at Boston College.

But we shouldn't assume that Bevell's familiarity would compel him to lobby for Jackson in Seattle. Childress was Jackson's champion in Minnesota, and Bevell above all else is a loyal soldier. In 2008 and 2010, relatively minor injuries prevented Jackson from starting games and required Bevell to find other alternatives. If you were an NFL coordinator, would that history move you to continue the relationship?

For argument's sake, let's say Bevell would be on board. We should still consider a bigger question: What about Seahawks general manager John Schneider?

Remember, Schneider was a member of the Green Bay Packers' front office during Jackson's first four seasons in Minnesota. One of Schneider's jobs was to evaluate Packers opponents. I have not asked Schneider his thoughts on Jackson, and discussing free agency on any level during the lockout is strictly forbidden. But if you were an NFC North evaluator and studied Jackson's game film with the Vikings, would you be eager to sign him as a free agent?

I'm not saying the Seahawks will ignore the possibility of signing Jackson. And on the NFC North blog, it's mostly irrelevant. But I do think it's important to remember that connections are a two-way street. In the case of some players, more information isn't always better.

Another in a periodic series examining the roles of NFC North newcomers.

I hesitate going here, knowing the potential for knee-jerk reactions on what has become one of our most polarizing recent issues. So in résumé style, I'll state the objective of this post from the top: To incorporate some statistical analysis into recent criticism of new Minnesota Vikings quarterback Christian Ponder and then start the process of placing it in context.

Let's try to move past our argument about whether Ponder represented the NFC North's best draft-day decision, the worst, or somewhere in between. Let's also stop trying to play amateur doctor and fretting whether he is injury-prone. Instead, let's review some numbers I commissioned from ESPN Stats & Information to help us work through the on-field segment of Ponder's biography.

There have been some questions about Ponder's arm strength, primarily as a result of an elbow injury that nagged him during his senior season at Florida State. But the harshest and most direct criticism has come from ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer, who in essence said that Ponder can't adjust under pressure and struggles during the relatively common instance of a play design running awry.

"He plays with a lot of anxiety," Dilfer said last month.

In an effort to flesh out that sentiment, I sought out Ponder's performance in several categories that would seem to reflect performance under (some kind of) pressure: Against the blitz, on third downs, in close games and when outside of the pocket. Off the top, I'll remind you that we've already established that Ponder had a disappointing 2010 season, one attributed to a series of injuries that overshadowed what was a much more productive 2009 campaign.

As you can see from the first chart, Ponder performed better last season when facing four or fewer pass rushers than he did when opponents sent at least one extra rusher. That is not necessarily unusual in the college game, but as we've discussed before, the NFL's best quarterbacks usually thrive against the blitz because they know how to capitalize on the resulting mismatches.

Of course, it takes more than a quarterback to beat the blitz, and it's only fair to point out that not a single one of Ponder's offensive teammates were drafted by the NFL during his tenure in Tallahassee, Fla. But I will say this: If Ponder completes 55.3 percent of his passes against the blitz in the NFL, he won't rank among the top 30 quarterbacks in that category.

ESPN didn't track blitzes against college quarterbacks in 2009, and I would expect Ponder's performance was better that season. Still, the opinions of Dilfer and others were based mostly on his 2010 season.

Regardless, as the next chart shows, Ponder was much better on third downs in 2009 than he was in 2010. He converted nearly 40 percent of his third-down opportunities in both seasons, but his passing was considerably more accurate on those higher-pressure throws during 2009.

Ponder also threw three of his eight total interceptions in 2010 on third down, a sign of forcing the ball under pressure.

We were also able to compare Ponder's passing in the fourth quarter of games where the score was within seven points in either direction. As you see in the numbers below, he was more accurate in 2010 but the sample size wasn't that large in either case.

• 2010: Ponder completed 14 of 21 attempts with no touchdowns or interceptions.
• 2009: He completed 35 of 61 passes, including one touchdown and one interception

Finally, as the second chart shows you, Ponder was slightly more efficient last season when throwing from outside of the pocket in 2010. Specifically, on non-designed scrambles, Ponder completed seven of 11 passes in 2010. If Ponder consistently melted under pressure, I would have expected the numbers to be much worst than they were.

So what do these facts and figures tell us? I think we can safely make a few statements.

1. In order to be a successful NFL quarterback, Ponder is going to need to play well on third downs and against the blitz. He slipped in the former category and was only decent in the latter during 2010.
2. Many of the negative opinions on Ponder center around his performance in that 2010 season. We'll know soon whether the slip can fairly be attributed to injuries, or if he is another Brian Brohm, the former Louisville quarterback who backtracked notably in his senior year and has been an NFL flop. In Brohm's case, there was no injury history to fall back on. But if Ponder reverts to 2009 form, there are some draft analysts who believe Ponder will be the best quarterback in this draft class.
3. Dilfer's extended complaint with Ponder's game is difficult to measure. How do we know if Ponder got too anxious during his senior season and pressed the issue, or if the players around him failed on their end?

So I'll make a proposal. Working with ESPN Stats & Information, and assuming the NFL lockout ends by this fall, we'll do our best to track Ponder along these specific measurements. How does he react under pressure? Can he remain accurate under pressure? And how does he fare on so-called "clutch throws?"

As much as we would all like answers now, they're undeniably fleeting. The best we can do is set up some parameters and let them play out over time.

Earlier: The Detroit Lions needed an explosive receiver like Titus Young. The Chicago Bears think defensive tackle Stephen Paea can be a disruptive force, not just a space-eater. The Green Bay Packers passed on a more highly-touted Arizona defensive end/linebacker and ultimately selected the Wildcats' Ricky Elmore in the sixth round. The Bears must decide where to play first-round pick Gabe Carimi, both now and in the future.

One thing we can all agree on when it comes to ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer: He can be counted on to bring a strong opinion and with little nuance, especially on the topic of quarterbacks.

Appearing Thursday morning on ESPN Radio's "The Herd with Colin Cowherd," Dilfer left little doubt his take on the Minnesota Vikings' decision to draft Florida State quarterback Christian Ponder with the No. 12 overall pick.

"Christian Ponder is Elvis Grbac," Dilfer said. "He's Elvis Grbac. Elvis Grbac was a beautiful thrower. He threw for 4,000 yards. He did a lot of nice things. Every time it got tough, he melted."

I think it's only fair to note that in 2001, the Baltimore Ravens replaced Dilfer with Grbac. The Ravens became a better passing offense but never returned to the Super Bowl, and I think that episode remains stamped in Dilfer's brain.

But that said, Dilfer told Cowherd that he watched every snap Ponder took in college. He described Ponder as a quarterback who looks great in workouts but quickly loses accuracy and effectiveness in the pressure of a game.

"His drop, his arm speed, everything about him ... it's one tempo," Dilfer said. "He has to play at the 7-on-7 tempo. The drop has to be rhythmical. The receivers have to be open. The ball goes one speed. The pocket has to be nice. Any time he's asked to quicken that up or there's people around him, his accuracy is awful. ...

"The great quarterbacks are as accurate going to [options] two, three and four as they are when you go to one. ... Christian Ponder, as soon as you get to two or three, the ball is dirting. It's high. It's all over the place. OK? He plays with a lot of anxiety. Do you want your quarterback in the NFL to play with a lot of anxiety?

"Christian Ponder tests off the charts. He's in shorts and a t-shirt. He goes to his pro workout, he's in shorts and a t-shirt. His big pecs are hanging out. He's got big guns. He looks great. He's a good-looking young man and he spins that ball around the football field in a perfect environment and people go 'wow he can play.'"

Dilfer also suggested that Ponder will continue to have a high injury rate because of the way his shoulders are built and because his arm action puts pressure on his elbow. TCU quarterback Andy Dalton would have been a much better pick, Dilfer said, and called it a "travesty" and a "major, major whiff" that neither the Vikings nor the Seattle Seahawks (at No. 25 overall) drafted him.

Finally, Dilfer said he was "very self-aware" and recognized that he didn't always react well under pressure during his career.

I'm not budging off my take from Thursday night. I think the Vikings had to take a shot at a quarterback at No. 12. No one said Ponder was the 12th-best player in this draft or even the next great quarterback in this league. He doesn't have to be for the Vikings to get where they want to go. And, I can tell you there is a wide disparity of opinion on whether Ponder or Dalton is the better pro prospect, a topic I'll further explore later Friday. Let's just say Dilfer represents one side of the spectrum.

If ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer is right, there is no way that Heisman Trophy winner Cam Newton will be available when the Minnesota Vikings make the No. 12 overall pick in the 2011 draft.

Dilfer attended Newton's media-only throwing session Thursday near San Diego and came away convinced that Newton will "skyrocket" up draft boards after NFL scouts see what he saw Thursday. Dilfer said Newton is a "gifted, gifted passer" who has the right "DNA" to be an elite quarterback at the professional level.

Scouts Inc. currently has Newton ranked as the No. 28 overall prospect in the draft. Vikings coach Leslie Frazier has said he would like to acquire a long-term answer at quarterback this offseason. But it might acquire some maneuvering for it to be Newton.

Dilfer and ESPN's Shelley Smith have more details in the video below.

Oh boy. I must say I'm surprised it has come to this. The Chicago Bears (9-3) are in first place in the NFC North. The Green Bay Packers (8-4) are a game behind them in the standings -- but not in ESPN.com's Week 14 Power Rankings.

That’s right. Three of our four esteemed voters ranked the Packers ahead of the Bears, resulting in a flip of last week’s order and what promises to be the most hotly-debated power ranking of NFC North teams in the long and storied history of power rankings.

As it turns out, the ESPN mothership is hating all over the Bears. Check out the Trent Dilfer video below, which includes this statement: "I believe the Bears have no chance of getting to the Super Bowl."

OK then.

This week’s details:

7. Green Bay Packers
Trending: Up one after a 34-16 victory over the San Francisco 49ers.

8. Chicago Bears
Trending: Down one after a 24-20 victory over the Detroit Lions.

23. Minnesota Vikings
Trending: No change after a 38-14 victory over the Buffalo Bills.

31. Detroit Lions
Trending: No change after a 24-20 loss to the Chicago Bears.

» NFC Stock Watch: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

FALLING

1. Backup receivers in Minnesota: Personnel distribution sometimes is a function of individual game-planning decisions, but it sure looks like Bernard Berrian and Greg Camarillo are going to have a hard time getting into the Minnesota Vikings' rotation as long as Randy Moss and Percy Harvin are healthy. Berrian has been a starter since his high-priced arrival in 2008 and Camarillo was acquired this summer from the Miami Dolphins for nickelback Benny Sapp. But Greg Lewis served as the No. 3 receiver in Monday night's game at the New York Jets, and neither Berrian nor Camarillo had a pass thrown his way. According to Tom Pelissero of 1500ESPN.com, Berrian got 13 snaps and Camarillo was on the field for seven of 62 offensive plays.

2. Fourth-quarter play in Green Bay: ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer pointed out some painful statistics this week: The Packers' offense has scored one touchdown, committed four turnovers and been penalized 15 times in the combined fourth quarters of five games this season. Those numbers are a big part of why they have two last-second losses on their record already, and they don't bode well for long-term success. It's difficult to pinpoint a reason; conditioning, mental toughness and/or general organization are just guesses. But unless the Packers can start building insurmountable leads, they're going to have to find a way to be more efficient at the end of games.

3. Brett Favre, Minnesota Vikings quarterback: Elbow tendinitis and an ongoing NFL investigation made for a pretty dark week, and they threaten to consume what Favre has said is his final season. The league would like to complete its inquiry as quickly as possible, but there is no formal timetable. At the very least, Favre faces the possibility of an uncomfortable conversation with commissioner Roger Goodell. Discipline, if merited, could range anywhere from a fine to suspension. Aside from that issue, Favre matched the second-lowest completion percentage (41.2) of his career in Monday night's game. It's hard to imagine that tendinitis didn't affect at least some of his 20 incompletions.

RISING

1. Chicago Bears rushing game: In part because of quarterback Todd Collins' ineffectiveness, the Bears ran a season-high 42 running plays in last Sunday's 23-6 victory over the Carolina Panthers. Starter Matt Forte responded with a career-high 166 yards, while backup Chester Taylor helped run out the clock in the second half. It's hard to imagine offensive coordinator Mike Martz averaging 42 rushing plays per game, especially with starter Jay Cutler (concussion) on track to return to the lineup this Sunday against the Seattle Seahawks. But the best offense is a balanced offense -- or, at least, one that has demonstrated the promise of balance. It's a maxim that Martz hasn't always lived by.

2. Upper Midwest medical costs: NFC North teams should be pretty close to fulfilling their deductibles by now. An incredible number of high-profile players have already suffered significant injuries, including all four starting quarterbacks. Usually, it's safe to say that the healthiest team wins a division. This year, however, it might be decided by the quality of depth. Little-noticed decisions could come into major play. Example: The Packers lost tailback Kregg Lumpkin via waivers when they tried to sign him to their practice squad last month. Had he remained with them, Lumpkin probably would have been the best candidate to replace injured starter Ryan Grant.

3. Confidence in Detroit: It had been 15 years since the Detroit Lions enjoyed a 38-plus point victory, and by all accounts, last Sunday was raucous at Ford Field. Defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh has already predicted the Lions won't lose another home game this season, and some fans are calling for Shaun Hill to keep the starting quarterback job even after starter Matthew Stafford returns from a shoulder injury. I think we can recognize the Hill-Stafford "controversy" as silly talk, but it's an opinion driven by excitement rather than depression. Three near-wins followed by a blowout victory have the engines started in Detroit.

Here on the ESPN Blog Network, we’re bracing ourselves for quite possibly the biggest divisional playoff game in the history of the 2010 postseason. Come Sunday afternoon at the Metrodome, Dallas and Minnesota will reprise a storied postseason rivalry -- sans (hopefully) whiskey bottles, push-offs and Hail Marys. (Well, at least the push-offs.)

ESPN.com's Matt Mosley and Kevin Seifert have spent most of the week buried in the film room -- er, basement -- refining the blogging plan for the rest of the week. As now they’re ready to start breaking down this most critical game.

Kevin Seifert: Greetings from the North Pole, Matt. Actually, you’re going to get lucky this weekend. We’re expecting unseasonably warm temperatures here this weekend, with highs in the 30s. Normally we call that “May” in Minnesota. Usually at this time of year, you can get frostbite on half your hand while walking from the parking lot to the media entrance at the Dome.

Matt Mosley: I will look for any excuse to visit Minneapolis in mid-January and this game is as good as anything else I might come up with. Sid Hartman and I have been waiting on this postseason matchup for years. Jerry Jones tried to capture the "charm" of the Metrodome in his new Cowboys Stadium, but I'm not sure things worked out. And by the way, Drew Pearson told me to pass along his best wishes to Vikings fans.

KS: OK, Matt. Let’s get down to it. Everyone in the world thinks the Cowboys are going to win this game. Even ESPN’s Trent Dilfer is convinced of it. You’ve been close to the Cowboys this season. Are they as hot as everyone says they are?

MM: Kevin, in my eight years of covering the team, I've never been around a more confident bunch of players. I think they're the hottest team in the NFC right now because of something that took place last month in New Orleans. The players got sick and tired of all the talk of their December failures and went out and overwhelmed a Saints team in the Superdome. That game did wonders for the Cowboys' confidence. No quarterback in the playoffs has performed as well as Tony Romo over the past six games and he benefits from having a dominant defense. So yes, I think the Cowboys are as hot as everyone at the Mall of America is indicating.

KS: Actually, Matt, you need to be more specific. We now have Mall of America Field here in addition to the Mall of America. At Mall of America Field, the conversation is revolving around two things: Are the Vikings willing to accept that they are a pass-first offense? And can their tackles, Bryant McKinnie and Phil Loadholt, keep DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer at bay long enough for Brett Favre to get the ball downfield?

If they come out of the gates aggressively and use their full array of offensive weapons, I think they can put up some serious points against the Cowboys' defense. The Vikings are one of two teams in NFL history to have six players catch at least 40 passes. That’s too many receivers for any defense to keep track of if the pass protection is there.

What’s your take, Matt? Do you think Ware & Co. can be slowed down?

MM: I agree with the aforementioned Dilfer that Loadholt and McKinnie are outmatched by the Cowboys' outside linebackers. Since the last time you saw this team, Spencer has become a force. Cowboys defensive coordinator/head coach Wade Phillips even lines them up next to each other at times. Donovan McNabb didn't have a chance against the Cowboys' pass rush and you can argue that Jason Peters and Winston Justice are superior offensive tackles to what the Vikings have to offer. The Cowboys' plan is to make sure Favre has to test those 40-year-old legs. The last time he saw this defense, he completed 5 of 14 passes and was intercepted twice before being knocked out of the game at Texas Stadium. He was of course with a 10-1 Packers team at the time in '07. Keith Brooking told me Tuesday that the Eagles and Vikings have similar offenses, but he alluded to the fact that Brad Childress is much more likely to use the running game than his mentor, Andy Reid. Of course, that's a lot easier to do when you have the pride of Palestine, Texas, Adrian Peterson, in your backfield. It's been quite a while since a team has put up points on this defense -- and that includes a Chargers team that was held to a season-low in points. I don't think we'll have a shootout on our hands, but Sid might have other ideas.

KS: I'll check with Sid when I see him. In the meantime, Matt, we have two elephants crowding the room for this game: The head coaches. In Minnesota, there is an unspoken fear that Brad Childress will get in the way and try to force his power running game on the Cowboys. Prior to Favre’s arrival, and at times this year, that has been Childress’ preference. Childress also made a couple of questionable game-management decisions in last year’s playoff loss to Philadelphia.

On the other side, however, is Phillips. Do Minnesota fans have anything to fear in this matchup?

MM: Calling Phillips an elephant is a low blow, Kevin. The man might fill out a pair of Russell coaching shorts, but he deserves better from you. And yes, there's reason for Vikings fans to fear The Wade. No matter what you say about his head-coaching credentials, he's always been an excellent defensive coordinator. He puts players in position to succeed and he does a superb job of exploiting weaknesses. From reading your fine work on a regular basis, I'm aware that Vikings center John Sullivan isn't a large man. He'll be facing one of the best nose tackles in the game in Jay Ratliff. From time to time, the behemoth-type centers give Ratliff a little trouble. But he's been known to destroy the guys who are close to his size. Everyone's focused on the offensive tackles, but I could see the "Ratt" having a big game in the middle. It all starts with him in this defense.

KS: Interesting. OK, Matt. This was great but is only a step in our coverage plan for this week. Keep checking back on the NFC East and NFC North blogs through Sunday.

MM: Just to be honest, my coverage plan for Saturday is a little weak because of travel. But I've thoroughly enjoyed this tremendous show of synergy within the NFL Blog Network. Kevin, I arrive at 8:10 local time on American, so please pass that along to my driver. Peace and courage from the Beast.

In this video, ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer says Minnesota offensive tackles Bryant McKinnie and Phil Loadholt face a “total mismatch” against Dallas pass rusher DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer. As a result, the Cowboys will win Sunday at the Metrodome, Dilfer adds, and continue on to the Super Bowl after that.

Trent Dilfer reacts to Brett Favre's return to the NFL with the Minnesota Vikings. Dilfer says it's worked out well for Favre, but he's not sure it will work out well for the Vikings.