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By this point, the Green Bay Packers' quiet approach to veteran free agency should surprise no one. We've had endless debates about the pros and cons of their philosophy, but in the spring of 2012, I think we should all have a clear understanding of the "why."

In the next 12 months or so, the Packers will face contract negotiations with three of the best players at their positions in the NFL. Receiver Greg Jennings is entering the final year of his contract, linebacker Clay Matthews has two years remaining on his rookie deal, and there is a general understanding that quarterback Aaron Rodgers has outperformed the contract he signed shortly after taking over as the Packers' starter in 2008.

Free agent activity this week has offered us a peak at the numbers the Packers likely will hear, and to no surprise, they're going to be high. Let's start with Jennings, who has to be smiling ear-to-ear after watching the money thrown at receivers this week.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers set the market for the top receiver available by signing Vincent Jackson to a five-year, $55 million deal with $26 million guaranteed. If Jennings were to hit the open market in 2013, he could reasonably expect Jackson's deal to serve as a baseline for negotiations.

Both players have been fortunate enough to play with elite quarterbacks and in steady passing offenses. As the chart shows, Jennings is a bit younger than Jackson, and has produced at a much higher rate over his career.

We'll set aside the $132 million contract of Detroit Lions receiver Calvin Johnson, as well as the $120 million deal Larry Fitzgerald signed last summer with the Arizona Cardinals. Both deals were inflated by unique forms of leverage that Jennings won't have access to.

Rodgers, meanwhile, is the reigning MVP and could expect a contract that comes close to the $18 million annual average the game's top quarterbacks -- including Tom Brady and Peyton Manning -- have received in recent deals. Ongoing negotiations between Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints could raise that level, but Brees has the leverage of an expired contract.

Regardless, you can do the math. Rodgers said in November that he wants his next contract to be his last. If the Packers want to sign Rodgers to a new, say, seven-year deal, the total value could surpass $125 million. Nothing crazy there when it comes to quarterback salaries.

Of the three, Matthews might be the most difficult situation to assess. His sack total fell from 13.5 in 2010 to six in 2011, but it's fair to consider him one of the NFL's better pass-rushers. The top available pass-rusher on the market this spring is defensive end/linebacker Mario Williams, who has reportedly agreed to a deal with the Buffalo Bills for $100 million over six years, with $50 million guaranteed.

So we can be conservative and suggest that the combined contracts of Jennings, Rodgers and Matthews could surpass $200 million. That should give you 200 million reasons why the Packers are laying low, at least at the moment.

In the absence of information about -- and access to -- the Chicago Bears' new general manager, many of us took the logical step in classifying his philosophy. Like Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson, Phil Emery spent most his professional career as a scout, beating the bushes around the country for college players. So it wasn't a bad guess to think Emery would be more likely follow Thompson's mantra of minimal free-agent activity while building his team through the draft.

And then Emery went and pulled off the highest-profile surprise in recent offseason memory Tuesday, giving up two third-round draft picks to acquire receiver Brandon Marshall from the Miami Dolphins. He also re-signed cornerback Tim Jennings to a two-year deal and was working to sign veteran Jason Campbell as the Bears' new backup quarterback.

OK then.

The comparison still works if you remember that Thompson signed cornerback Charles Woodson and defensive end Ryan Pickett to bolster those positions early in his tenure. Only after two drafts with the Packers did Thompson begin backing away from the free-agent market.

We have no idea what the long-term future holds for Emery's stewardship of the Bears. He hasn't uttered a word in public since his Jan. 30 introductory press conference, and probably as a result, both the Marshall courtship and the interest in Campbell came as complete surprises.

But Tuesday demonstrated the Bears have a bold thinker sitting in their Halas Hall trigger seat. Recognizing his team's biggest need, Emery acquired a better player than the top free agent available. (I would take Marshall over Vincent Jackson. You?) Knowing his team needed a better situation behind Jay Cutler, Emery is trying to sign a player who has been considered starting-quality by every team he's played for.

The Bears didn't get the first visit with defensive end Mario Williams, a big point of our discussions the past few days, and it's not clear if they have interest. Williams is already visiting the Buffalo Bills. But in a matter of minutes, Phil Emery replaced a void of information with a flood of action that spoke volumes about the way he will manage the Bears. Reporters and fans might not like being in the dark, but no one can argue with Tuesday's results.

Amid the chaos of the Brandon Marshall trade and the start of NFL free agency, Seth sent over a tweet that I'm guessing represented many of your thoughts: "Make me feel better about my Vikings doing absolutely nothing. Please."

I'm not sure if anyone expected the rebuilding Minnesota Vikings to jump into the first-hour bidding of free agency. But it's true they were quiet while many of the market's top receivers and cornerbacks -- two positions of acute need -- made plans to visit elsewhere.

Let's revise our list of the top seven receivers available with the best information we have on them, based mostly on the fast-moving Twitter feed of ESPN's Adam Schefter. At the moment, the Vikings aren't in on any of them.

1. Vincent Jackson: Negotiating with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2. Brandon Lloyd: Being connected to the New England Patriots but nothing concrete
3. Reggie Wayne: Connected with Peyton Manning's destination, but nothing concrete
4. Mario Manningham: Nothing yet
5. Pierre Garcon: Signed with the Washington Redskins
6. Laurent Robinson: Visiting the Jacksonville Jaguars
7. Robert Meachem: Buffalo Bills, St. Louis Rams and San Diego Chargers have all expressed interest.

Meanwhile, cornerback Brandon Carr is receiving interest from the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers, among other teams. Cornerback Cortland Finnegan is expected to visit the St. Louis Rams.

With all of that said, Seth and other Vikings fans, I wouldn't fall into hysterics quite yet. All the Vikings have done at this point is sit out the madness of the first few hours of free agency, a time best reserved for teams with fewer roster holes than the Vikings. I would frankly feel more critical if they had jumped out and paid, say, Garcon $20 million in guarantees. We'll judge the Vikings over time, but not based on the past two hours. As always, there will be value deals available in the coming days and weeks.

Feel any better, Seth?

We have two receiver-needy teams here in the NFC North, so for the sake of the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings, if no one else, let's take a look at what's left of the receiver market after New Orleans Saints re-signed Marques Colston to a five-year deal earlier Tuesday.

As our guide, we'll use Matt Williamson's excellent ranking of the top 50 overall free agents available . Below is how Williamson ranked the seven receivers (other than Colston) that he placed on the list.

1. Vincent Jackson
2. Brandon Lloyd
3. Reggie Wayne
4. Mario Manningham
5. Pierre Garcon
6. Laurent Robinson
7. Robert Meachem

It's fair to say there is a significant drop-off after Jackson, one that will only enhance his value on the open market. The Bears have already had one go-around with Lloyd, and it wouldn't be surprising for Wayne to join quarterback Peyton Manning wherever he lands.

This is where free agency gets tricky, where contracts by rule are inflated. It's one thing to overpay for a Pro Bowl player. It's another to overpay for someone who can't play a lead role. Other than Jackson and perhaps Wayne, do you see a No. 1 receiver on this list? Nope. What you have is a list of players who fit closer into the No. 3 category than No. 2 seeking elite money. The Bears and Vikings must fight that temptation.

We're Black and Blue All Over:

Take a moment to breathe it all in. Monday is the final full day of the NFL's 2011 league year. The "New Year" will begin Tuesday at 4 p.m. -- the moment when all teams must be in compliance with the $120.6 million salary cap, when free agents can begin signing with new teams and trades can be officially consummated.

Some work remains between now and then, however. We are awaiting word on what restricted free agents were issued tenders, and which (if any) will be allowed to depart without compensation. And we'll need to see what the Detroit Lions do to shave more than $11 million in cap space.

The Lions were $11.55 million above the cap as of the end of last week, according to Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press. That roughly jibes with our recent cap conversations that had them close to $121 million before they committed another $10.6 million to place the franchise tag on defensive end Cliff Avril.

If the Lions can't lower their number by signing receiver Calvin Johnson to a contract extension, they'll need either to start releasing players or seek significant contract restructures. Stay tuned.

Skipping around the division on this merry Monday:

• Lions defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh needs to hire a driver, writes Chris McCosky of the Detroit News.
• Defensive end Mario Williams should be the focus of the Chicago Bears' pursuits in free agency, writes Dan Pompei of the Chicago Tribune.
• Brad Biggs of the Tribune is expecting the Bears to be active at the start of free agency.
• Will the Green Bay Packers need to dip their toes in free agency this year? Pete Dougherty of the Green Bay Press-Gazette thinks they might.
• Tyler Dunne of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel considers the Packers' options if free agent Scott Wells doesn't return.
• The Packers have about $5.5 million in cap space available, according to Bill Huber of Scout.com.
• Minneapolis officials are hoping that a new stadium at the Metrodome site will boost the surrounding neighborhood, according to the Star Tribune.
• When it's all said and done, the Vikings will have more than $23 million in cap space available, according to Tom Pelissero of 1500ESPN.com.
• Jeremy Fowler of the St. Paul Pioneer Press looks at possible free-agent targets for the Vikings.
• Pelissero thinks it's more likely the Vikings will pursue a B-level receiver than Vincent Jackson.

» AFC Free-Agency Primer: East | West | North | South » NFC: East | West | North | South

Free agency begins Tuesday at 4 p.m. ET

Chicago Bears

Key free agents: Tight end Kellen Davis, running back Matt Forte (franchise), cornerback Corey Graham, quarterback Caleb Hanie, defensive end Israel Idonije, cornerback Tim Jennings, quarterback Josh McCown, safety Brandon Meriweather and receiver Roy Williams.

Where they stand: The Bears will have the most salary-cap space among NFC North teams, upwards of $30 million, and have plenty of potential uses for it. Quarterback Jay Cutler needs more targets in the downfield passing game, whether it's at the receiver or tight end position. And new general manager Phil Emery must start restocking a defense led by four players more than 30 years old: Linebackers Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs, defensive end Julius Peppers and cornerback Charles Tillman.

What to expect: It's widely believed the Bears will be in the running for free-agent receiver Vincent Jackson. But Jackson's price tag could be steep and no one knows if Emery will prove to be a big spender. It seems likely he will re-sign Davis, and Emery should also save some of his cap space to extend Forte's contract. Secondary receiver targets could include Marques Colston. Bears fans are hoping the team will pursue defensive end Mario Williams, but it's hard to imagine the Bears budgeting for Williams two years after breaking their bank on Peppers.

Detroit Lions

Key free agents: Defensive end Cliff Avril (franchise), left tackle Jeff Backus, safety Chris Harris, quarterback Shaun Hill, linebacker DeAndre Levy (restricted), running back Maurice Morris, running back Kevin Smith, quarterback Drew Stanton, linebacker Stephen Tulloch and cornerback Eric Wright.

Where they stand: The Lions are tight against the salary cap after franchising Avril and aren't likely to be big spenders on the free-agent market. They could relieve the situation by reaching long-term agreements with Avril and/or receiver Calvin Johnson, who has a $22 million cap figure for 2012. Tulloch made a big impact last season after signing a one-year deal, but so far the Lions' attention has turned elsewhere.

What to expect: The Lions' best-case scenario is to keep their 2011 core together without mortgaging their future relative to the salary cap. That would mean getting Tulloch re-signed to preserve the linebacker group they upgraded last season by signing him and veteran Justin Durant, moves that allowed Levy to play on the outside. Hill seems likely to re-sign as Matthew Stafford's backup, while Stanton might test the free-agent waters to see if he has a chance to do better than third on a team's depth chart.

Green Bay Packers

Key free agents: Cornerback Jarrett Bush, quarterback Matt Flynn, running back Ryan Grant and center Scott Wells.

Where they stand: The Packers took care of a big challenge by signing tight end Jermichael Finley to a two-year contract last month. They will let Flynn depart for a possible starting job elsewhere and it appears Grant will test the free-agent market. Discussions with Wells haven't led to an agreement, but the Packers often go to the final moments before reaching a deal. There are no obvious internal replacements for Wells, making his return a priority.

What to expect: The Packers will have some flexibility with the salary cap, but general manager Ted Thompson's aversion to veteran free agency is well known. It's been three years since he signed a veteran unrestricted free agent in the offseason. The Packers have needs at defensive line, outside linebacker and possibly at center if Wells leaves. But let's put it this way: Thompson's strong preference is to find depth and future replacements in the draft, not on other teams' rosters.

Minnesota Vikings

Key free agents: Safety Husain Abdullah, receiver Devin Aromashodu, receiver Greg Camarillo, defensive lineman Fred Evans, defensive lineman Letroy Guion, linebacker E.J. Henderson, linebacker Erin Henderson, safety Tyrell Johnson, quarterback Sage Rosenfels, cornerback Benny Sapp and tight end Visanthe Shiancoe.

Where they stand: The Vikings seem poised for a major roster overhaul in their first offseason since Rick Spielman was promoted to general manager. Players like Shiancoe, E.J. Henderson, Camarillo and Johnson all seem poised to move on. There aren't many positions on the team that appear secure.

What to expect: If the Vikings don't plan to draft USC left tackle Matt Kalil at No. 3 overall next month, the first clue will be if they pursue a free-agent left tackle. That seems unlikely. But they'll need to combine their draft with at least a few veteran free agents if they intend to compete for a playoff spot in 2012. Cornerback could be a point of focus, where Brandon Carr and Cortland Finnegan are among those available. Another could be receiver. The Vikings had major interest in Jackson two years ago.

Tuesday's SportsNation chat had two themes. One was the ongoing bounty story surrounding the New Orleans Saints, and by association the Minnesota Vikings. The other was the possibility of the Chicago Bears pursuing — and securing — free agent receiver Vincent Jackson.

We've said enough about the former. On the Jackson and the Bears, I fell in line with what Michael C. Wright of ESPNChicago.com posted earlier Tuesday. The Bears have the cap space to make Jackson a lucrative offer, but the wild card is the blank slate of new general manager Phil Emery.

The relevant exchanges:

Tearloch (Hartford, CT)

Kevin, so what are the chances of the Bears finally giving Jay Cutler a legit weapon at WR? VJax? [Marques] Colston? High draft pick?

Kevin Seifert (2:11 PM)

I think they'll get somebody. They have to. VJax is going to be very expensive and highly sought after. The big problem is we just don't know what Emery's style will be. Comparisons to Ted Thompson don't suggest he will be wild in free agency.

David (Atlanta)

Aren't V-Jax and [Colston] too old to give the big-time multi-year deals that they will be seeking? Both will cross over into the 30s after the 2012 season. Neither seems like a long-term solution, right?

Kevin Seifert (2:26 PM)

Conditioning and health will go into it, but in the end this is a passing league and anyone who can elevate it significantly for a team will be highly valued.

Smeagol (fishing)

So you think Emery will go for more second tier, lower priced free agents than a big name (or two)?

Kevin Seifert (2:38 PM)

Truly would be a guess. He has been part of front offices that have been big spenders, and he has also been exposed to the other side of that. But his reputation is relatively conservative.

ESPN.com's blog editors have put together a comprehensive chart of the 21 franchise players for 2012. That's a high number, but it still leaves dozens of high-quality players to hit the free agent market next week.

I'm sure we'll discuss a number of them over the ensuing days, but for now I think we should recognize that San Diego Chargers receiver Vincent Jackson is highly regarded by multiple NFC North teams. The Chargers did not franchise Jackson, making him one of the top prizes of the free agent market.

It got overshadowed by subsequent events, but the Minnesota Vikings pushed hard to acquire Jackson via trade in 2010. Rebuffed near the trade deadline, the Vikings turned instead to talks with the New England Patriots and Randy Moss. I'm sure you remember what happened next.

Jackson is two years older and the Vikings are in a different place now, but they are just as bereft of receivers now as they were in 2010. General manager Rick Spielman has spoken often this offseason of getting quarterback Christian Ponder more help from playmaking positions.

Jackson isn't believed to be eager to leave San Diego, where he has excelled in Norv Turner's offense and has a good relationship with quarterback Philip Rivers. He might not be ready to start over with a young quarterback, but he wouldn't have to if another NFC North team pursues him.

The Chicago Bears have a significant need at receiver, and Jackson could team with quarterback Jay Cutler to make an instant impact. The Bears' plans under new general manager Phil Emery remain unclear from a public perspective, but given the state of the position, it's easy to envision the Bears making a serious run at Jackson next week. Stay tuned.

We've discussed several times the possibility of a precedent-setting offseason fight between the Green Bay Packers and tight end Jermichael Finley. Namely: If the Packers make him their franchise player, could Finley justifiably argue he is a receiver rather than a tight end? The answer could be the difference between a $5.5 million tag and one around $9 million.

Neil Hornsby of Pro Football Focus has reconciled and further analyzed some numbers we introduced as part of last week's discussion. Finley is among a group of hybrid pass-catching tight ends who are used all over the field, according to Hornsby's film analysis, Finley could argue that he was aligned away from the tackle on 51 percent of his plays in 2011 and that he was in a 2-point stance on 60 percent of his plays.

Because Finley was lined up as a receiver on a mathematical majority of plays, Hornsby concludes: "In every measurable category Finley should be considered a wide receiver for the purposes of the tender."

That might be true from a technical sense. But from this vantage point, a more equitable challenge would be to request a new franchise classification that takes into account the way tight end play has evolved for some NFL teams. Finley, Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski are used differently than earlier generations. On the one hand, they are higher-profile and have more impact on the passing game than traditional in-line tight ends. But it's hard to consider them receivers when true receivers play nearly 100 percent of their snaps away from the line of scrimmage and in a 2-point stance.

In that scenario, the value of Finley's franchise tag could rise above that of tight ends but fall short of the one assigned to wide receivers.

I'm not sure if that will happen, but that possibility seems much more realistic than putting players like Finley in the same category as, say, Vincent Jackson of the San Diego Chargers or Dwayne Bowe of the Kansas City Chiefs. Stay tuned.

» NFC Final Word: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Five nuggets of knowledge on Week 16:

Busted rivalry: When the NFL released its schedule this spring, many of us had high expectations for a late-December matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears. Instead, an injury-devastated Bears team will limp north as a (deserved) 13-point underdog. It's possible the Packers will have clinched home-field advantage even before taking the field Sunday night, if the San Francisco 49ers lose Saturday at the Seattle Seahawks. If not, the Packers will attempt to secure it against a team playing without quarterback Jay Cutler, running backs Matt Forte and Marion Barber, and receiver Johnny Knox. Third-string running back Kahlil Bell is expected to start, pairing with third-string quarterback Josh McCown -- who has a history of helping the Packers' playoff positioning. (See: Noooooooooooooooo!) One other interesting bit of history: The Packers are one of five teams in NFL history to open a season 13-0 and then lose in their 14th game. All four of the other teams lost their 15th game, too. That list includes the 2009 and 2005 Indianapolis Colts, the 2009 New Orleans Saints and the 1998 Denver Broncos.

Packers' run game: For several reasons, Sunday night's game would be an obvious target for the Packers to try to enhance their running game. James Starks (ankle) and Brandon Saine (concussion) are expected to return. The Packers will start a makeshift offensive line that likely will include T.J. Lang at right tackle and Evan Dietrich-Smith at left guard; the best way for offensive linemen to get comfortable is via run blocking. And it's also worth repeating that the Bears historically have done a good job limiting Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers' downfield opportunities. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Rodgers has completed only five of 26 attempts on throws against the Bears that traveled in the air 21 yards or more. He's thrown for one touchdown, a game-winner to receiver Greg Jennings in 2009, and two interceptions on those passes.

Detroit's challenge: The Detroit Lions will clinch a playoff spot Saturday if they beat the San Diego Chargers in what will likely be a raucous atmosphere at Ford Field. (There are also several scenarios to clinch this weekend even if they lose. They're noted in this post.) Hopefully everyone knows the Chargers are on one of their annual December rolls. They've won three consecutive games after a six-game losing streak. Since Norv Turner took the head coaching job in 2007, the Chargers are 20-2 in December. This will be no cakewalk.

Big targets: Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers struggled earlier this season, but he has been the NFL's most efficient quarterback over the past three weeks based on Total Quarterback Rating. Rivers has hit a groove with a pair of 6-foot-5 receivers that will pose significant matchup problems for the Lions. Malcom Floyd has 11 receptions for 233 yards and two touchdowns over the past two games, while Vincent Jackson has caught 12 passes for 211 yards and a touchdown. Jackson has been sidelined in practice this week by a groin injury. Lions cornerback Chris Houston (knee) clearly wasn't 100 percent last week against the Oakland Raiders, and the team re-signed Brandon McDonald this week for extra depth. Safety Louis Delmas (knee) also remains sidelined, and backup Chris Harris was cleared Thursday to practice following a concussion.

Make it stop: If you're a big-picture observer, you see ample motivation for the Minnesota Vikings to lose Sunday at the Washington Redskins. One more victory by the Indianapolis Colts, in conjunction with two more Vikings defeats, would give the Vikings an excellent chance to secure the No. 1 overall pick of the 2012 draft. A loss to the Redskins would extend the Vikings' losing streak to seven games, tying a franchise record set in their expansion season of 1961. But I'm not sure what would be worse: tying that record or extending their NFL record of games without an interception, which stands at nine. Redskins quarterback Rex Grossman has thrown at least one interception in his past 10 starts, and he is tied for the second-most interceptions in the NFL (18) despite missing three games this season. Something's got to give.

» NFC Stock Watch: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

FALLING

1. Communication in the Green Bay Packers' secondary: It's true that Packers defensive backs made three of the most critical plays in Sunday's victory over the San Diego Chargers. Safety Charlie Peprah and cornerback Tramon Williams each returned interceptions for touchdowns, and Peprah added a second interception to clinch the game with 14 seconds remaining. But anyone who has watched the Packers' pass defense has seen a number of blown coverages in recent weeks, be it on Michael Jenkins' 72-yard reception for the Minnesota Vikings in Week 7 or Vincent Jackson's 38-yard play Sunday for the Chargers. With each instance, we learn more about the value of injured safety Nick Collins, who has made most of the positioning calls for the Packers in recent seasons.

2. Clarity in the Detroit Lions' backfield: On several occasions, the Lions have downplayed their modest running game totals by noting how explosive they've been via the air. It's a fair point, and it's not worth obsessing over their running game as we move into the second half of the season. With that said, Monday's return of tailback Kevin Smith makes you wonder exactly what is in store for the backfield moving forward. Was it a sign that starter Jahvid Best's return is far from guaranteed? Is Smith just extra insurance for the people ahead of him, a list that includes Maurice Morris and Keiland Williams? Or are the Lions like the rest of us -- unsure where this is all headed -- and making sure they are fortified for each contingency?

3. High-mindedness in Minnesota: Sure, it sounded like a tough plan in theory for the Minnesota Vikings to release cornerback Chris Cook. He has been charged with a particularly infuriating crime, felony strangulation of his girlfriend, and the Vikings would have gotten a public relations boost in some areas had they cut their losses. But let's get real for a moment. Rare is the NFL team that will justify releasing a 24-year-old cornerback who was making substantial progress this season because of an untried legal issue. Cook's next court date isn't until Nov. 22. In the meantime, the Vikings have given Cook a paid vacation to get himself straight. I can't blame them.

RISING

1. Brian Urlacher, Chicago Bears linebacker: There were plenty of heroes in the effort to limit Philadelphia Eagles stars Michael Vick, LeSean McCoy and DeSean Jackson in Monday night's victory. Linebacker Lance Briggs, for one, played an inspired game. But Urlacher seemed to be running all over the field all night, collecting 10 solo tackles and tipping two passes. Vick managed 33 rushing yards and McCoy only 71 -- of which 33 came on one play. What you saw Monday night was a 33-year-old Urlacher playing the way he did when he was 23. An impressive effort, not to mention a lot of 33s.

2. Aaron Rodgers, Packers quarterback: Rodgers could be a staple in this feature, but we try to save him for special occasions. In this case, Rodgers capped his MVP first half with a number of accomplishments worth noting. First, his 64-yard pass Sunday to receiver Jordy Nelson was one of the best throws I've seen him make. Rolling to his right, Rodgers didn't have time to set his feet and simply flung the ball about 55 yards in the air. Second, that pass helped elevate Rodgers' completion percentage on throws of 20 or more yards downfield to 65.2 percent this season. That's a better completion percentage than all but three NFL quarterbacks have on all of their throws. Amazing.

3. Earl Bennett, Bears receiver: How much different did the Bears' offense look with Bennett back after a nearly two-month absence? He caught all five of the passes quarterback Jay Cutler threw him Monday night, totaling 95 yards and what amounted to the winning touchdown. It's long been established that Cutler loves throwing to him, but Monday you saw why: Bennett is tough, sure-handed and reliable in clutch situations. Other than tailback Matt Forte, you really couldn't say that about any other Bears skill position player this season.

On Monday, we noted that Minnesota Vikings receiver Bernard Berrian took to Twitter in defense of his low production this season. When a follower told him he was "wide open at least 5 times," Berrian responded: "been like that the last 4 yrs."

One of the fans who challenged Berrian on that point was a Minnesota state representative and a co-author of the team's stadium finance bill. That fact was dramatic but ultimately irrelevant. What concerned me was Berrian's implication that getting open is the extent of his job as a receiver, and beyond that, his production is in the hands of someone else -- presumably the quarterback or the play-caller.

So with help from several resources, I sought out some key facts that would help us understand whether Berrian is justified or if he needs to take more ownership for catching only two passes over the Vikings' first four games.

First, it should be noted that Berrian has been on the field more often than any Vikings wide receiver. According to Pro Football Focus, he has played on 182 of the Vikings' 248 snaps. Michael Jenkins is next with 175 plays, Percy Harvin has 141 and Devin Aromashodu has 36.

On those 182 plays, Berrian has been targeted on 13 passes. ESPN Stats & Information doesn't assign a target when one isn't clear, making its number different from press-box statistics that say Berrian has been targeted 15 targeted times. Regardless, Berrian has caught only two of the 13, or 15 percent.

The top NFL receivers typically catch between 60 and 70 percent of the passes thrown their way, according to a spreadsheet I viewed from ESPN Stats & Information. New England Patriots slot man, for example, Wes Welker has caught 70 percent this season. Houston Texans receiver Andre Johnson is at 71 percent. Steve Johnson of the Buffalo Bills is at 66 percent and the San Diego Chargers' Vincent Jackson is at 65 percent.

Admittedly, 13 targets on 182 plays is a very small number. There are 84 NFL players who have been targeted more than Berrian this season. But this is where his career history, at least with the Vikings, needs to be reviewed for context.

Katie Sharp of ESPN Stats & Information provided the following chart. It shows that in the four years Berrian was referring to, he's caught 52 percent of the passes thrown his way. Since the start of the 2010 season, that number is 45 percent.

There are many factors that go into how frequently a receiver should catch the passes thrown his way. Obviously, quarterback accuracy is one of them. So is the route a receiver is asked to run; a short route is more likely to be completed than one that takes a receiver 30 yards downfield.

But there are some factors that a receiver can control. Does he need the ball delivered precisely to his hands? How good is he at catching imperfect passes? Can he win a physical fight with the defender? To what extent can he twist his body or shield defenders or maintain control after a big hit?

All of these factors go into the pot when evaluating Berrian's past four years. He obviously hasn't gotten as many passes as he would have liked. But over that stretch, he's worked with four different veteran quarterbacks: Gus Frerotte, Tarvaris Jackson, Brett Favre and Donovan McNabb. Have they all inexplicably looked elsewhere when he Berrian was open, presuming he has been? Or did Berrian's extended history of catching about half of the passes thrown his way play a role in their (possibly subconscious) decision-making?

Berrian isn't totally at fault for his two-catch season. McNabb has under-and overthrown him on a number of occasions already. But I hope Berrian doesn't think that getting open is the sole factor in a quarterback throwing his way. That's only half of the battle, and perhaps Berrian hasn't won enough of the other half to justify additional attention. Just a thought.

I'm in total agreement with Minnesota Vikings receiver Bernard Berrian, who encapsulated everything in 16 words Sunday morning: "Yo real talk this has to be the craziest season for one team in NFL history."

Indeed, the Vikings have now had their second game postponed in the past three weeks because of weather issues. Sunday night's game against the Philadelphia Eagles has been delayed 48 hours and will be played Tuesday night because of blizzard conditions in Philadelphia. (The game won't be played Monday night in part because the current winter storm warning won't be lifted until Monday afternoon at 1 p.m. ET, according to NFL spokesman Greg Aiello.)

As the Vikings mull whether to leave Philadelphia on Sunday and then return Tuesday, at least we know the Vikings and Eagles will then have four days to prepare for their Jan. 2 season finale. Frankly, I would imagine the Vikings wouldn't be fazed by such an odd week. From Brett Favre to Sidney Rice to Vincent Jackson to Randy Moss to Brad Childress to Leslie Frazier to the Metrodome to Ford Field to TCF Bank Stadium to Brett Favre to Joe Webb, it has been a season to remember.

Or to forget.

We're Black and Blue All Over:

Many of you have been asking about a timetable for the return of Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford, and the best answer right now is that it will be a while.

As we've discussed, an injury to a quarterback's throwing shoulder is usually treated with extreme caution. But 10 days after the injury, according to Chris McCosky of the Detroit News, Stafford still can't use his right arm to tie his shoes. He can lift the arm over his head, but obviously he has significant work to do before he can begin throwing.

There aren't many tea leaves to read on this one. It's obvious the Lions think Stafford will return at some point this season, or else they would have placed him on injured reserve. But initial discussions of a six-week timetable seem to be a solid baseline at this point.

Continuing around the NFC North:

• The Lions benched linebacker Julian Peterson for the final two series of Sunday's loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, notes Tom Kowalski of Mlive.com. Peterson will presumably remain in the starting lineup, in part because of the concussion-related absence of fellow outside linebacker Zack Follett.
• Here's another scary concussion story from Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press: Follett said he suffered the concussion during a first-half kickoff against the Eagles and played the second half "in kind of a dream." Ouch.
• ESPN's John Clayton reports the Minnesota Vikings ultimately refused the San Diego Chargers' asking price for receiver Vincent Jackson. The Chargers wanted second- and fourth-round draft picks.
• Vikings receiver Greg Camarillo on his infrequent use in the Vikings' first two games, via Bob Sansevere of the St. Paul Pioneer Press: "I didn't really know what to expect. I feel I'm capable of catching the ball. I'm capable of making plays. Then again, we have talented receivers here. It's not like I'm going to come in and replace anybody. I've got to find my spot. I've got to figure out what the offense needs and fulfill whatever role they need me to."
• Vikings linebacker Jasper Brinkley was a close friend and college teammate of Kenny McKinley, the Denver Broncos receiver who committed suicide this week. The Star Tribune has more.
• The Vikings are trying to preach patience this week, writes Tom Pelissero of 1500ESPN.com.
• Mike Vandermause of the Green Bay Press-Gazette: "While General Manager Ted Thompson has been criticized for the Packers' perceived thin ranks at outside linebacker, halfback and cornerback, those complaints have overshadowed the team's overall strength. Consider that in the past year the Packers have lost seven starters to injuries, suspension or free agency. Every team suffers from attrition, but the Packers have not only weathered the loss of roughly one-third of their starting lineup from last season, but continue to flourish in spite of it."
• Former Packers general manager Ron Wolf missed the first two weeks of the NFL season while traveling in Europe and recently caught up on tape at Lambeau Field, writes Lori Nickel of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
• The Chicago Bears' offense is unpredictable under new coordinator Mike Martz, writes Michael C. Wright of ESPNChicago.com.
• Bob LeGere of the Daily Herald: "Now that the Bears' offense has rolled up 771 yards of total offense in the first two weeks of the season, the Mike Martz bandwagon is filled to capacity. But players say they've had confidence in the new offensive coordinator's scheme for a long time, despite an inauspicious preseason."
• The Bears demonstrated deft ability to make in-game adjustments Sunday against Dallas, writes Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune.
• Bears cornerback Charles Tillman is back to his ball-stripping ways, according to Sean Jensen of the Chicago Sun-Times.

EDEN PRAIRIE, Minn. -- Just making sure you heard the news. The Minnesota Vikings did not acquire San Diego Chargers receiver Vincent Jackson before the 4 p.m. ET deadline, all but ending their pursuit of the Pro Bowler. If they trade for him now, Jackson would not be eligible to play until Week 7.

It appears this deal was scuttled by Chargers general manager A.J. Smith. One of Jackson's agents, Jonathan Feinsod, told my AFC West colleague Bill Williamson that Smith is the "Lord of no Rings."

More to come in a bit.