NFC North: Wes Welker
Cris Carter still waiting on the Hall of Fame
The very next year, Herman Moore caught 123 passes for the Detroit Lions. Since then, the NFL has seen a 143-catch season (Marvin Harrison for the Indianapolis Colts in 2002) and another 123-catch campaign (Wes Welker for the New England Patriots in 2009). Welker also caught 122 passes this season. In fact, since Carter's 122-catch season, NFL wide receivers have produced 13 seasons that would have broken the record of 112 catches that Carter eclipsed in that 1994 season.
Carter was without question one of the best wide receivers of his era, but if I had to make an educated guess about why he has not yet been enshrined in the Hall of Fame, I would blame his timing. He produced his best seasons at the start of an NFL passing frenzy that has inflated statistics and left Hall voters reluctant to reward them.
There are 21 wide receivers in the Hall, fewer than any position except tight end, place-kicker or punter. And as the first chart shows, only four receivers whose careers began in the past 35 years have been elected. One of them, Art Monk, was enshrined 13 years after his retirement. A second, James Lofton, waited 10 years.
Hall voters might not agree, but the numbers suggest they haven't prioritized receivers as much as some other positions. And those who value the position have no doubt been torn in recent years by the presence of three quality candidates: Carter, Andre Reed and Tim Brown.
The second chart shows the receiving statistics of that trio over a relatively similar career span. Carter was a finalist in 2008, 2009 and 2010. Brown, who was also an elite kick returner, was a finalist in 2010. But Reed has been a finalist every year since 2007, and Carter's absence in 2011 suggests that Reed might have been pushed to the front of the line whenever a receiver (or two) is elected.
When he retired in 2002, Carter ranked second in NFL history in receptions and touchdown catches. He was No. 3 in total yards and total touchdowns. The NFL's offensive explosion has pushed him down in every category, and you hope he doesn't get permanently caught in the subsequent backlash. Catching 244 passes in two seasons, as Carter did in 1994 and 1995, was much more notable at the time than it is now.
While he will always be overshadowed by Jerry Rice, whose career more or less overlapped his, Carter also deserves some big-picture credit for sharpening the science of sideline footwork and warding off opponents with his arm. He was also as durable a receiver as this game as known, missing only four games in 14 seasons between 1988-2002.
I couldn't begin to tell you what might happen Saturday when voters convene to elect the class of 2012. Once again, Carter has joined Brown and Reed on the list of 15 semifinalists. Only five recently retired players, along with up to two nominees from the seniors committee, can make it.
I'll leave you with what the late Detroit Lions beat writer Tom Kowalski a said in a post-vote discussion last year. (He also tweeted it, so it's not as if I'm giving away a privileged conversation.) Kowalski, a member of the voting committee, looked at the projected ballots for 2012, 2013 and 2014 and predicted that the "snubs" of 2011 would be rectified over the next three years. If that's the case, it's just a matter of "when" for Cris Carter.
Note: Carter is one of several former players with NFC North ties among the 15 semifinalists. That list also includes former Vikings defensive end Chris Doleman, current Green Bay Packers outside linebackers coach Kevin Greene and former Lions guard Dick Stanfel.
Bernard Berrian's role in his low production
Otto Greule Jr./Getty ImagesSince joining the Vikings in 2008, Bernard Berrian has caught roughly 50 percent of the passes thrown his way.So with help from several resources, I sought out some key facts that would help us understand whether Berrian is justified or if he needs to take more ownership for catching only two passes over the Vikings' first four games.
First, it should be noted that Berrian has been on the field more often than any Vikings wide receiver. According to Pro Football Focus, he has played on 182 of the Vikings' 248 snaps. Michael Jenkins is next with 175 plays, Percy Harvin has 141 and Devin Aromashodu has 36.
On those 182 plays, Berrian has been targeted on 13 passes. ESPN Stats & Information doesn't assign a target when one isn't clear, making its number different from press-box statistics that say Berrian has been targeted 15 targeted times. Regardless, Berrian has caught only two of the 13, or 15 percent.
The top NFL receivers typically catch between 60 and 70 percent of the passes thrown their way, according to a spreadsheet I viewed from ESPN Stats & Information. New England Patriots slot man, for example, Wes Welker has caught 70 percent this season. Houston Texans receiver Andre Johnson is at 71 percent. Steve Johnson of the Buffalo Bills is at 66 percent and the San Diego Chargers' Vincent Jackson is at 65 percent.
Admittedly, 13 targets on 182 plays is a very small number. There are 84 NFL players who have been targeted more than Berrian this season. But this is where his career history, at least with the Vikings, needs to be reviewed for context.
Katie Sharp of ESPN Stats & Information provided the following chart. It shows that in the four years Berrian was referring to, he's caught 52 percent of the passes thrown his way. Since the start of the 2010 season, that number is 45 percent.
There are many factors that go into how frequently a receiver should catch the passes thrown his way. Obviously, quarterback accuracy is one of them. So is the route a receiver is asked to run; a short route is more likely to be completed than one that takes a receiver 30 yards downfield.
But there are some factors that a receiver can control. Does he need the ball delivered precisely to his hands? How good is he at catching imperfect passes? Can he win a physical fight with the defender? To what extent can he twist his body or shield defenders or maintain control after a big hit?
All of these factors go into the pot when evaluating Berrian's past four years. He obviously hasn't gotten as many passes as he would have liked. But over that stretch, he's worked with four different veteran quarterbacks: Gus Frerotte, Tarvaris Jackson, Brett Favre and Donovan McNabb. Have they all inexplicably looked elsewhere when he Berrian was open, presuming he has been? Or did Berrian's extended history of catching about half of the passes thrown his way play a role in their (possibly subconscious) decision-making?
Berrian isn't totally at fault for his two-catch season. McNabb has under-and overthrown him on a number of occasions already. But I hope Berrian doesn't think that getting open is the sole factor in a quarterback throwing his way. That's only half of the battle, and perhaps Berrian hasn't won enough of the other half to justify additional attention. Just a thought.
ESPN.com Power Rankings: Wide receivers
You'll see that Andre Johnson of the Houston Texans finished first and that two NFC North receivers, the Detroit Lions' Calvin Johnson and the Green Bay Packers' Greg Jennings, finished fourth and sixth in the voting, respectively.
Regular readers know I don't take Power Rankings too seriously. They're just a fun debate starter and nothing more. My ballot is sure to draw some ire from the Texans' fan because I ranked Johnson No. 6, a position that in retrospect is probably low. But there is no taking it back, and the bottom line is a divisional blogger doesn't spread his focus equally among 32 teams.
In fact, thinking back, I believe I've seen one of Johnson's 115 NFL games in person. That game was nearly eight years ago in 2003. That doesn't mean I'm not aware of him and his production over the past seasons, but it hasn't registered with me to the extent of some other players I have seen more often.
For those interested, the ballot I submitted to Sando is below. From an NFC North perspective, I continue to cling to my choice of Johnson over Jennings in a battle that has no loser. I wonder if we'll ever see Johnson play a full season with a quarterback who performs at the level that Jennings now has three years with in Aaron Rodgers.
- Larry Fitzgerald
- Roddy White
- Reggie Wayne
- Calvin Johnson
- Greg Jennings
- Andre Johnson
- Wes Welker
- Brandon Marshall
- Santonio Holmes
- DeSean Jackson
Epicenter of Humanity: A respectful rivalry
AP Photo/Mike RoemerPackers QB Aaron Rodgers and Bears QB Jay Cutler share text messages off the field, not insults."I said, 'We'll see y'all in Chicago in the NFC Championship Game,'" Harris recounted Sunday after the Bears secured their spot in that game with a 35-24 divisional playoff victory against the Seattle Seahawks.
"I had a feeling that they would make it," Harris added. "I was very confident in what we could do, so we got that rematch."
To me, that encounter illustrated everything the run-up to Packers-Bears III will -- and won't -- be.
You'll hear about two teams that have peaked in the playoffs. The Packers have won four consecutive "elimination games," dating to Week 16 of the regular season, while the Bears have scored at least 35 points in five of their past six contests.
You'll hear more history than you probably ever associated with professional football. The Bears and Packers have played 181 games against each other, dating to 1921. The Bears hold a 92-83-6 advantage, including the only playoff meeting between the rivals.
But it would be a shock if you hear any of the raw trash-talking that took place last week between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens. I would be stunned if you hear any of the threats that shuttled between the New York Jets and New England Patriots.
The Packers and Bears are direct division competitors, and it can get ugly between their fans. (A "Green Bay sucks" cheer surfaced in the second half at Soldier Field.) But from a player perspective, I don't sense anything close to the hatred that exists between those AFC teams.
In this rivalry, players stop before, during and after games to chat and exchange friendly barbs. Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has often expressed his appreciation to Bears quarterback Jay Cutler for helping his brother get assimilated at Vanderbilt University. And Sunday, Cutler acknowledged he sent Rodgers a congratulatory text message this weekend after the Packers' 48-21 divisional playoff victory against the Atlanta Falcons.
"I'll probably have a few text messages from him, so we'll have friendly banter, I'm sure," Cutler said.
About the worst thing anyone in the Bears' locker room could muster was this from linebacker Brian Urlacher: "It's our closest rival. They're right up the street, so it's a big deal. We have a lot of history with them. I think it's the oldest rivalry in NFL history, so it's a big deal. We don't like them. They don't like us. I'm sure there's going to be a lot of hype around this game building up to it."
Indeed, there will be ungodly hype, especially on this blog. From this point forward, I'm tagging this game "Epicenter of Humanity." So I don't want to minimize how big and fun this is going to be for fans and media members alike.
But I also think it's important to draw a distinction between the history and physicality of Bears-Packers games and the kind of silly, attention-grabbing verbosity that consumed the AFC games last week. Sorry, the Packers and Bears don't hate each other.
"I don't think there is hatred," Bears place-kicker Robbie Gould said. "We have a lot of respect for their organization and they have, I'm sure, a mutual respect for us. It's just that they're not going to like us and we're not going to like them -- this week."
There is a big difference between that sentiment and the kind that left Jets linebacker Bart Scott threatening to end the career of Patriots receiver Wes Welker. Scott's comments came after Welker seemingly went out of his way to take subtle shots at Jets coach Rex Ryan. It might have been entertaining to some people. But to me, the regular season is the time for sideshows. The playoffs are all about the games.
We are by no means holier than thou here in the NFC North. But I don't think anyone is going to be making any jokes this week about the other team, either. From a football perspective, this is too good of a matchup to waste time on mind games.
"We just look at this as another obstacle," Packers cornerback Charles Woodson said Saturday night about the possibility of playing the Bears. "It doesn't matter who we're playing. The object is to win. Whoever it is, we look to play our game and come out on top."
Bears cornerback Charles Tillman, a veteran of eight years of these games, said he'll look at this game as "Bears-Packers." With a smirk and wide eyes, Tillman added: "But I think the media will create 'IT'S BEARS-PACKERS. THE BIGGEST RIVALS IN HISTORY OF THE NFL SINCE 1900-SOMETHING.' I think at the end of the day it's still football. They're a great football team. They're in the playoffs. ... If you flip a coin, it's 50-50."
We're in an age where prominent players shift teams often via free agency and trades. They share agents and train together in the offseason regardless of team affiliations. In fact, Rodgers and Tillman have been a part of an offseason training group in California. NFL players sport far more commonalities than differences, and I'm always skeptical when they express hatred for teams or players based simply on affiliations.
To me, Harris got it right. This week will be the Epicenter of Humanity for us, but for the players it will simply be another week of playoff intensity.
"This will be great for TV," Harris said. "FOX is probably licking its chops. ... [But] it will be very respectful. We're not a team that does a lot of trash talking. We'd rather show it on the field. They're the same way. Two teams that definitely respect each other. Maybe I'll have a dislike for them, but you don't have to publicly come out and tell how bad we hate them, or whatever the case may be."
As a blog community, we most definitely are going to get it on this week. The players? Let them know when it's Sunday.
Rapid Reaction: Patriots 36, Bears 7

It became abundantly clear very quickly the home-team Chicago Bears were more affected by the inclement weather conditions than the visiting New England Patriots, who rode Tom Brady’s arm to a 36-7 smackdown at Soldier Field.
Chicago’s embarrassing loss brings back the question that has hung over the club all season: Are the Bears the real deal?
They definitely didn’t look the part against the Patriots.
What it means: The Bears squandered an opportunity to pad their lead atop the NFC North by falling to the Patriots. Earlier in the day, the Green Bay Packers -- already a game behind the Bears in the division -- lost 7-3 to the Detroit Lions. Further complicating matters for Green Bay was the concussion quarterback Aaron Rodgers suffered in the first half that casts doubt about his availability for the Packers' matchup next week at New England.
So had the Bears taken care of business Sunday against New England, they’d be two games up against a Packers team that could very well be on the way to yet another loss next week on the road against what appears to be the best team in the league.
Snow what? That’s probably what the Patriots say to the notion of inclement weather at Soldier Field affecting their offense. The Patriots racked up 273 yards in the first half, converting on 67 percent of third downs.
The team with home-field advantage, meanwhile, managed just 33 yards of offense in the first half as quarterback Jay Cutler succumbed to two sacks and finished with a passer rating of 58.3. The area the Bears hoped to lean on most -- the rushing attack -- produced just 19 yards in the first half, led by Matt Forte, who averaged 1.9 yards per carry. The club’s longest run in the first two quarters was a 7-yard scramble by Cutler.
Brady lights up Cover 2: Chicago made no secret of its plan to stay in Cover 2 and test Brady’s patience by forcing him to make short passes. Brady did that and more in the first half, lighting up the Bears' Cover 2 defense for 195 yards in the first half with two touchdowns and a passer rating of 124.1.
Brady displayed patience against Chicago’s Cover 2 in taking New England on 12- and 11-play scoring drives to start the game. Then, when the Bears started to take more chances in coverage, the quarterback and his receivers took advantage. On the final play of the second quarter, Brady hit Deion Branch -- who beat Bears corner Charles Tillman on the route -- for a 59-yard touchdown as time expired.
In the first half alone, the Patriots lined up in six different personnel packages on offense, in addition to no-huddle. The Bears seemed to have no answer, and by the end of the third quarter, two New England receivers -- Branch and Wes Welker -- had each racked up more than 100 yards on a combined 15 catches.
Record-setting first half: Chicago’s performance in the first half Sunday will go in the team's record books, just not the way it would like. The Bears allowed the most first-half points in franchise history, surrendering 33 through the first two quarters, shattering the old mark of 31 points scored on the club by the Detroit Lions on Sept. 18, 2005.
What’s next: Minnesota is next up on the schedule, but there’s uncertainty concerning whether the Bears will be able to play the Vikings at the Metrodome next Monday night because the facility’s inflatable roof caved in under the weight of heavy snows in the area.
Bill Lester, executive director of the Metropolitan Sports Facilities Commission -- which operates the Metrodome -- reportedly said that extent of the damage was still being assessed. But Steve Maki, the facilities manager, told the Associated Press he is optimistic the roof can be repaired in time for the Monday night matchup.
Five things to watch: Patriots at Lions

1. Check out the big guy. If you're watching from a national perspective, make sure you keep an eye on rookie defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh. You'll see what Lions fans have watched all season: A nasty, high-motor play-maker who is every bit deserving of the Pro Bowl votes he's getting. Suh's seven sacks continues to lead all NFL defensive tackles, two ahead of the next-highest total (Tommy Kelly of the Oakland Raiders has five). He's part of a frenetic defensive line that has, for the most part, lived up to preseason expectations.
2. Flinging' it. This game could be entertaining from an aesthetic standpoint. The Lions have attempted 438 passes this season, tied for most in the NFL. Meanwhile, opponents have taken to the air against the Patriots, attempting 395 passes (third most in the NFL) and accumulating the second-highest total of yards against a defense (289.6). Multiple toe injuries to tailback Jahvid Best make it even more likely the Lions will attempt to put on an aerial show.
3. Mutual admiration society. Lions coach Jim Schwartz is a disciple of Patriots coach Bill Belichick, who gave Schwartz his first NFL job (as a scout for the Cleveland Browns) in 1993. "I probably owe my entire NFL career to Bill Belichick," Schwartz said this week. Like Belichick, Schwartz studies analytic statistics and isn't afraid to challenge conventional wisdom. "They give you a lot of things to get ready for," Belichick said of Schwartz's team. "You can just see in their game plans and trying to match up against the Lions, whether it's us doing it this week or watching other teams do it from week to week, that it's hard. ... They put [players] in positions that make it tough for you to defend or to block them the way you want to block them."
4. Call this game the Drop Bowl. According to ESPN Stats & Information, the Lions (28) and Patriots (25) rank first and second among NFL teams in passes dropped. Patriots receiver Wes Welker has six drops, while Lions receiver Calvin Johnson, tight end Brandon Pettigrew and tailback Jahvid Best have four drops apiece. The Patriots' 8-2 record suggests that drops might not be a singular statistical indicator of wins and losses this season, but it's still something to keep an eye on.
5. Defending CJ. Belichick went out of his way this week to note that the Lions' Johnson is a much different receiver than Randy Moss. But it will be interesting to see if Belichick uses anything close to the same scheme he employed against Moss earlier this month. In a 28-18 victory over the Minnesota Vikings, the Patriots had safety Brandon Meriweather standing more than 20 yards off the ball for most of the game to discourage Moss from getting downfield. Listening to Belichick talk this week, you would think he has an alternative plan. "He's never covered," Belichick said, while adding: "It looks like Shaquille O'Neal going up for a rebound against two point guards."
But with the Vikings leading the hapless New York Giants 17-0 early in the second quarter, I wonder if they’ll consider removing some of their key players -- by halftime, if not now. By key players, I’m talking about those they couldn’t come close to replacing in the playoffs: quarterback Brett Favre, tailback Adrian Peterson (who is back in the flow of the offense), left tackle Bryant McKinnie and defensive end Jared Allen.
This game still has meaning for the Vikings: If they win and Philadelphia loses at Dallas, they’ll have the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoffs. But if nothing else, the Welker injury has given us a conversation topic for the rest of this game.
On Sunday, Breana of Chicago prompted this debate: If you had to pick, would you prefer a great quarterback with average receivers or vice versa? After all, that pretty much describes the situations in Chicago and Minnesota, respectively. What's the preferable arrangement?
About 500 of your closest friends jumped into the fray, with a clear majority favoring a superior quarterback over top receivers in the abstract. But there were a number of you who pointed out the limitations facing any quarterback with inferior receivers, while some noted specific instances of an otherwise middling quarterback lifted to prominence by a stellar group of pass-catchers.
Off the top, several people dismissed the premise of a deep Vikings receiving corps. Tony of Seoul wrote: "I would be ecstatic if the Vikings had elite receivers, but we do not." Nick of Portland added:
"I think it's important to note that the Vikings WR corps isn't even that good. Bernard Berrian is a serviceable No. 1, but no other WRs on that team have proven anything. Sidney Rice got 15 receptions last year, Percy Harvin has proved nothing and Bobby Wade is ... Bobby Wade. In this situation, I'd have to pick the Bears passing corps, because they have an elite player (Jay Cutler) whereas the Vikings best player has never had a 1,000-yard season, and would be the third WR in Green Bay."
But if you accept the notion that the Vikings at least have a deep group of receivers, you can continue on. Nate of Lexington, Va., put an eloquent voice to a quarterback's ability to lift an offense:
"I played wide receiver in college and the quarterback that I played with ended up winning the Gagliardi Trophy (essentially the D-III Heisman) and I was an all-conference wideout. While I was no slouch, I would have to say that without question it was because of [the quarterback] and his ability that made me and us as a group better. A good quarterback and his timing, arm strength and accuracy can make up for a lack of separation and overall talent in general. No matter how good a receiver is, if a bad quarterback can't get him the ball he is no good to an offense.
As a lifelong Bears fan it pained me to see Kyle Orton (who I like on the whole) underthrow Hester on a deep ball or miss an open receiver by just that little bit. A guy like Jay Cutler surrounded by Devin Hester, Greg Olsen, Rashied Davis and Desmond Clark will be more successful than Tarvaris Jackson throwing to Berrian, Wade, Rice and Harvin."
Tim of Kansas City notes the early success of New England quarterback Tom Brady -- before his receiving corps included Randy Moss and Wes Welker. "The Patriots had only average receivers and won three Super Bowls," Tim wrote. Akio of Tokyo concludes: "Proven quarterbacks will make receivers shine. A chicken (QB) or an egg (WR)? My vote is that a chicken comes first."
Fire up the grill!
On the other side of the debate, Brian of Sturgis, S.D., points out how a good receiver can make a quarterback look better. "I would prefer to have receivers who can catch the bad pass as well as the good ones from the suspect QB rather than receivers who miss the good ones on occasion and CAN'T catch the bad pass."
David of Austin recalls the 1998 season, when Vikings quarterback Randall Cunningham came out of nowhere to have a Pro Bowl season. The Vikings surrounded him with a deep group of skill players and a dynamic scheme, factors we haven't really accounted for in a strict debate between quarterbacks and receivers. But David makes some good points:
"Cunningham's 1998 season with Minnesota, when he had Cris Carter, Jake Reed, Robert Smith, and Randy Moss (whose explosiveness was as yet largely unanticipated and unplanned for by defenses) as offensive weapons, and a decent offensive scheme, speaks volumes about how good offensive weapons and game planning was able to turn an 81.5 lifetime average QB into a wunderkind, at least for one season. His 106 QB rating that season was 14 points higher than his next best season, eight years earlier, and 24 points higher than his lifetime average."
My take? I figured you would ask. I have always felt that quarterback is the most important single position in all of sports. It's much more difficult to find a good quarterback than it is to assemble a group of competent receivers.
But just for kicks, I looked at the top two receivers for each of the NFL's five highest-rated quarterbacks in 2008. Then I did the reverse: Who was the primary quarterback for the five most productive receivers in 2008?
Here are the highest-rated quarterbacks' top wide receivers:
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And here are the quarterbacks for the top five receivers by yards:
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And by receptions:
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Because this is only a one-year sample, I don't know that we should draw too many conclusions from these charts. You can see that the NFL's five highest-rated quarterbacks last season had the benefit of working with four 1,000-yard receivers. You can also see that it's possible for a receiver to have a good year with a low-rated quarterback, but it wasn't frequent last season. (Detroit's Calvin Johnson and Cincinnati's T.J. Houshmandzadeh were the only ones to make the cut.)
Finally, four of the five highest-rated quarterbacks made the playoffs last season. Three of the top receivers in yardage advanced to the postseason, but only one from the group organized by receptions. This tells us that in 2008, at least, you were better off with an elite quarterback than an elite receiver -- but we probably knew that anyway. For me, however, it also shows there is enough gray area in this question to make for reasonable disagreement in this debate.
In the specific question of Chicago vs. Minnesota, there are some mitigating factors that we avoided for the purposes of this debate. How does the relative quality of each team's running game impact the debate? And what about their defenses?
From a big-picture perspective, however, I'll always choose the quarterback ahead of the receivers. A really good group of receivers can bail out an average quarterback at times, but not to the extent that an elite quarterback can lift an average group of receivers. I'll take Tom Brady with Troy Brown and David Patten over Ryan Fitzpatrick with Chad Ocho Cinco and T.J. Houshmandzadeh any day.

