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The fourth round is just about over. It's down to the compensatory picks and those can't be traded, so this round will end with only three picks made by NFC South teams.

But this still was a relatively eventful round for the division. Carolina was the star in this round as the Panthers used back-to-back picks to get Oklahoma defensive end Frank Alexander and Arkansas receiver Joe Adams. I don’t think either is a candidate to start right away, but they give the Panthers some depth at positions where they needed depth.

Charles Johnson is Carolina’s big threat at defensive end and Greg Hardy hasn’t really produced the way the Panthers had hoped. They still have hope Hardy will emerge, but Alexander provides another option behind him.

I like the Adams pick even more. Carolina has one certainty at receiver. That’s Steve Smith. After that, the Panthers are hoping Brandon LaFell can continue to develop and David Gettis can come back strong from last year’s season-ending injury. But there are no guarantees LaFell and Gettis will become stars, so it makes sense to add another guy to this mix. Adams could end up being used as a slot receiver fairly early on. He has the potential to be explosive and, with Cam Newton’s arm, the Panthers could use someone besides Smith that can get open down the field.

Speaking of wide receivers, the Saints got one with the only other NFC South pick in the fourth round. They took Wisconsin’s Nick Toon. A lack of top end speed and questions about his durability are the main reasons Toon slid to the fourth round. But this is a polished player from a big-time program. In New Orleans’ offense, wide receivers tend to produce more than their draft status would suggest. Just look at what Marques Colston and Lance Moore have done.

The Saints did lose Robert Meachem in free agency. They still have Colston, Moore and Devery Henderson. Toon should have a chance to compete with Adrian Arrington for the fourth receiver spot.

The man who made the New Orleans Saints could end up breaking them.

Drew Brees arrived in 2006 as the Saints and the city of New Orleans were still dealing with the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. He brought instant credibility, an explosive brand of offense and sustained success for a franchise that had been hapless through most of its existence. He also played a vital role in rebuilding New Orleans and the Gulf South region.

Now, the price tag on all that is coming due. Brees is scheduled to become a free agent on March 13. He and the Saints are negotiating, but reports indicate the two sides remain far apart. That in itself is a little unbelievable because the parameters of this deal are obvious. Brees deserves to be the highest-paid player in NFL history.

He’s coming off a year in which he set the NFL record for passing yards in a season (5,476), and he should get at least as much as Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, who average $18 million per year.

I have no doubt that, when all is said and done, Brees will remain with the Saints. If negotiations on a long-term deal continue to fail, the Saints will simply put the franchise tag on their franchise quarterback.

But, either way, this is when we could begin to see the beginning of the end of the Saints as we know them.

They’re not going to be the same team they were last season when they went 13-3. They might not even be the same team they were in 2010 when they went 11-5. And they certainly aren’t going to be the same team they were in the magical 2009 season when they won the Super Bowl.

They’ll have the same quarterback, and that’s a great start. But the economics of his contract mean the Saints aren’t going to have the same quality of players at a lot of other positions. That’s not Brees’ fault, or the team’s fault. It’s simply reality in the modern NFL.

By the time next season rolls around and everything has shaken out, the Saints could be taking several steps back. They’ll still have a high-powered offense because they’ll have Brees, Darren Sproles and Jimmy Graham, but that offense might not be quite the machine it’s been the past few seasons. That’s because some parts are going to be gone and they can’t truly be replaced.

On defense, which wasn’t an area of strength to begin with, the Saints have a new coordinator, Steve Spagnuolo, who needs new pieces to execute his scheme. He’s not going to be able to get all he needs -- at least not this offseason.

So you’re looking at an offense that probably will be a notch or two below what it’s been in recent seasons. And you’re looking at a defense that’s probably going to be far from dominant.

Gee, that sounds pretty much like the Saints were in 2007 and ’08. They scored a lot of points, but the offense wasn’t quite perfect. The defense was far below perfect. That added up to mediocre seasons that didn’t end in trips to the playoffs.

That could be what the Saints face in 2012.

We haven’t even seen the full fallout yet, but we can start looking ahead and, no matter how you slice it, it’s tough to paint a pretty picture.

Brees isn’t the only big-name free agent the Saints have, but he’s the only one they’re absolutely sure to keep. The same can’t be said for guard Carl Nicks and wide receiver Marques Colston. It definitely can’t be said for receiver Robert Meachem and cornerback Tracy Porter, who aren’t on the Nicks/Colston level have been valuable contributors.

At absolute best, the Saints will be able to sign Brees and then place the franchise tag on either Nicks or Colston. At worst, they use the franchise tag on Brees, while Colston and Nicks both walk.

You don’t replace Nicks. He’s the best guard in the NFL and he may be just hitting his prime. Although the Saints have another very good guard in Jahri Evans, they no longer would have the unquestioned best guard tandem in the NFL.

Without Nicks, Brees would lose his best protector. Any quarterback, even Brees, isn’t quite as good when he’s getting pressured (think back to last season’s stunning loss to St. Louis).

Colston probably isn't on his way to the Hall of Fame, but he’s been Brees’ favorite target since they joined forces in 2006. Colston has had 1,000-yard receiving seasons in five of his six years. He’s a big target who isn't afraid to go over the middle. Take him away and take Meachem away, and the Saints would still have Lance Moore, Devery Henderson and Adrian Arrington. Moore and Henderson are nice, experienced receivers, but they don’t do the things Colston does.

And when you’ve got no cap room to sign free agents and no first-round draft pick, where are you going to get a receiver who does anything close to what Colston does? And where are you going to get a guard who is anywhere near as good as Nicks?

So let’s subtract a few points a game from the Saints’ offense going forward. And we’re only just beginning to talk about a defense that could end up giving up more points than it has in recent seasons.

This defense isn’t loaded with talent and we soon could see subtraction by subtraction. This salary-cap jam almost certainly will force the Saints to let Porter walk. That’s not that big a deal. The Saints have a top-flight corner in Jabari Greer, and it’s pretty apparent they’ve been preparing for Porter’s eventual departure by drafting Patrick Robinson and Johnny Patrick in recent years.

But the cost of keeping Brees, and maybe Nicks or Colston, means it’s almost certain the Saints are going to have to trim some cap room by releasing some prominent defensive players or at least restructuring their contracts.

Middle linebacker Jonathan Vilma and defensive end Will Smith are likely the top two targets for that. Although both are aging and Vilma is coming off a knee injury, those two have been New Orleans’ defensive leaders throughout coach Sean Payton’s tenure. Take Vilma away from a group of linebackers that’s ordinary, and you’ve got a group of linebackers that’s less than ordinary. And you're without the next guy in the leadership chain after Brees.

Again, the Saints don’t have the currency (cap room or prime draft picks) to make major upgrades here. Take Smith away from a pass rush that hasn’t even been ordinary, and you’ve got the potential for huge problems.

Unlike predecessor Gregg Williams, whose defensive philosophy was to be opportunistic and create turnovers, Spagnuolo believes in playing more of a shutdown defense, and he likes to generate almost all of his pressure from the front four. With Smith, the Saints have one guy up front who can rush the passer. Without him, they won’t have any.

Good luck trying to find a guy in the middle rounds of the draft or a low-priced free agent who will step right in and give you double-digit sacks. Spagnuolo is a good coach and his hiring set off celebrations in New Orleans. But a coach is only as good as the players around him, and Spagnuolo is probably not going to have a great deal of defensive talent in his first year.

That could be the story of the Saints in 2012.

Keeping their quarterback would at least keep them competitive, but they won't take steps forward if their roster is wiped out and the cap situation keeps them from being rebuilt.

We still are about to weeks away from the start of free agency. But the quiet period is starting to ease a bit. With the combine wrapping up, we're starting to get a bit more news as teams prepare for free agency. Let's take a look at Tuesday's headlines.

New Orleans guard Carl Nicks said he’s having difficulty with the anxiety that comes with the uncertainty about his future. It’s not fun or even fair to Nicks to have to go through this, but the reality is he’ll probably be feeling anxious for a while longer. The Saints still haven’t worked out a long-term deal with quarterback Drew Brees. The deadline for using the franchise tag is March 5. If the Saints don’t have a deal with Brees by then, he’ll get tagged. If they do have a deal, they’ll probably try to work out a quick contract with Nicks, but there might not be enough time, and he could end up with the franchise tag. However it works out, I’m sensing some turbulent times in New Orleans. The Saints very well could lose some other free agents like receivers Marques Colston and Robert Meachem, and cornerback Tracy Porter, and they might have to cut some prominent players to keep themselves under the salary cap.

At least the Saints have a little insurance at receiver if Colston and Meachem do leave. Adrian Arrington reportedly has signed his tender as an exclusive-rights free agent. That leaves him along with Lance Moore and Devery Henderson. That means the cupboard’s not bare if Colston and Meachem escape, but I think the Saints would go out and draft a receiver or sign a free agent, because they like to use a rotation of four or five receivers.

Instead of opening on a Thursday night as it has in recent years, the 2012 season will open on Wednesday, Sept. 5 because of a conflict with the Democratic National Convention. The New York Giants will host that game. Their opponent isn’t known yet. But looking at their list of home opponents, it’s not a stretch to jump to the conclusion they’ll host either the Saints or Packers in the opener.

With the new collective bargaining agreement, offseason programs are going to look a lot different than in the past. The Falcons won’t start their offseason workouts until April 23, coach Mike Smith said. That’s more than a month later than the team started in past years. But the ground rules are the same for all teams.

A day after saying he was 75 percent sure he’d be leaving the New York Giants as a free agent, receiver Mario Manningham adjusted those odds to 50-50. Manningham also downplayed a report that he could be headed to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That’s all Manningham can realistically do at this point, because free agency hasn’t started. But, if he does become a free agent, there’s likely to be more media speculation about him joining the Bucs. That’s because Tampa Bay offensive coordinator Mike Sullivan was an assistant with the Giants and coached receivers at one point. That the Bucs could use better production at receiver also is going to fuel speculation about Manningham as a possibility for Tampa Bay.

Here's some audio of me discussing free agency and the Bucs (and a little bit on the Saints) with ESPN Florida Radio's Tom Krasniqi.

No NFC South team faces a more challenging period between now and the start of free agency than the New Orleans Saints.

They have to find a way to re-sign quarterback Drew Brees, and there are at least a couple other players that it’s essential the Saints retain. They’ve also got some important role players and will need to find ways to keep several of them despite a difficult salary-cap situation.

Let’s take a look at New Orleans’ potential free agents. They’re all unrestricted, unless noted otherwise:

Brees, defensive end Jeff Charleston, receiver Marques Colston, linebacker Jo-Lonn Dunbar, defensive tackle Aubrayo Franklin, tight end John Gilmore, tight end Tory Humphrey, kicker John Kasay, defensive end Turk McBride, offensive lineman Pat McQuistan, receiver Robert Meachem, guard Carl Nicks, cornerback Tracy Porter, receiver/return man Courtney Roby, defensive tackle Shaun Rogers, cornerback Leigh Torrence, safety Jonathon Amaya (exclusive rights), receiver Adrian Arrington (exclusive rights), center Brian de la Puente (exclusive rights), offensive lineman Justin Drescher (exclusive rights), linebacker Jonathan Casillas (restricted), quarterback Chase Daniel (restricted) and linebacker Ramon Humber (restricted).

Whatever deal Brees signs, it’s likely he’ll take up somewhere around $15 million of the 2012 salary cap. But the Saints will have to continue to spend big money. It’s imperative they keep Nicks. He might be the best guard in the league and he’s Brees’ top protector. Keeping Colston also would seem to be a top priority because he’s one of Brees’ favorite targets.

Once the accounting is done on Brees, Nicks and Colston, the Saints will have to make some tough financial decisions. Porter and Meachem are important role players. But they could have market value elsewhere. The Saints might not be able to afford to keep them. That would hurt, but it might not be disastrous because the Saints have good depth at receiver and cornerback.

The final injury report for the Saints for Saturday’s playoff game with San Francisco is out, and the news is mixed.

Receiver Lance Moore (hamstring) will miss his second straight playoff game. The Saints can get by with Marques Colston, Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem as their first three receivers. But Moore’s absence means the Saints likely will keep Adrian Arrington active. Arrington played some last week, but he doesn’t have nearly as much experience as Moore.

Backup tight end John Gilmore (toe) also has been declared out for Saturday. Linebacker Jonathan Casillas (knee) is listed as questionable and practiced on a limited basis Friday. If Casillas can’t play, we likely will see more of Martez Wilson and Ramon Humber.

On the positive side, middle linebacker Jonathan Vilma (knee), strong safety Roman Harper (ankle) and Meachem all are listed as probable.

The New Orleans Saints could be without wide receiver Lance Moore for a second straight postseason game.

Moore did not participate in Wednesday’s practice due to a hamstring injury. He missed the opening-round win against Detroit. The Saints got by because they have plenty of depth at receiver with Marques Colston, Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem. Moore’s absence also led to a little bit of playing time for Adrian Arrington.

Strong safety Roman Harper (ankle) and tight end John Gilmore (toe) also missed Wednesday’s practice. On the bright side, linebacker Jonathan Casillas (knee) practiced on a limited basis after sitting out the Detroit game. Middle linebacker Jonathan Vilma (knee) also participated on a limited basis.

The only other player on the New Orleans injury report is Meachem. He is listed with a knee injury, but participated fully in Wednesday’s practice.

The New Orleans Saints have declared wide receiver Lance Moore (hamstring) out for Saturday’s playoff game with Detroit.

New Orleans still has plenty of healthy receivers with Marques Colston, Robert Meachem and Devery Henderson. But the Saints use all sorts of different personnel groupings and Adrian Arrington could pick up some of Moore’s playing time. Arrington has very limited playing experience.

The Saints also declared linebacker Jonathan Casillas (knee) and tight end John Gilmore (toe) out for Saturday. Martez Wilson and Ramon Humber could get more playing time with Casillas out.

The Saints are listing Meachem (knee), linebacker Jonathan Vilma (knee), safety Malcolm Jenkins (neck) and safety Jonathon Amaya (shoulder) as probable.

The only Detroit player who is listed as anything other than probable is safety Chris Harris, who is doubtful with a back injury.

It looks like there’s a growing chance the New Orleans Saints might have to play their wild-card playoff game against Detroit without wide receiver Lance Moore.

He missed his second straight day of practice with a hamstring injury. Moore missed the regular-season finale. The Saints have good depth at wide receiver as Marques Colston, Robert Meachem and Devery Henderson are all capable of handling lots of playing time. But the Saints like to work with different personnel groupings and that could mean an increased role for Adrian Arrington, who does not have a lot of experience.

Linebacker Jonathan Casillas also missed another practice with a knee injury, making it likely he will not be able to play against Detroit. That could mean more playing time for Ramon Humber and Martez Wilson.

Reserve tight end John Gilmore (toe) also missed Thursday’s practice. Middle linebacker Jonathan Vilma participated on a limited basis for the second straight day.

NEW ORLEANS -- The Saints will be without several injured players for the “Monday Night Football’’ game with the Atlanta Falcons.

No big surprises since all three of these were pretty much expected. Running back Mark Ingram, linebacker Jonathan Casillas and defensive end Turk McBride have been declared inactive.

Also inactive for the Saints are cornerback Leigh Torrence, offensive tackle William Robinson, tight end Michael Higgins and receiver Adrian Arrington.

NEW ORLEANS -- Running back Chris Ivory is inactive for Sunday night’s game against the Detroit Lions.

Ivory is healthy, but the Saints made him inactive last week as well. They’ve been using Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas and rookie Mark Ingram in a backfield rotation.

Also inactive for the Saints are receiver Adrian Arrington, cornerback Johnny Patrick, linebacker Martez Wilson, lineman Will Robinson, defensive end Turk McBride and tight end Michael Higgins.

Linebacker Jonathan Vilma, who had been out with a knee injury, is active and is expected to start.

The inactives for Detroit are safety Louis Delmas, defensive back Chris Houston, quarterback Drew Stanton, defensive end Lawrence Jackson, guard Leonard Davis, running back Aaron Brown and cornerback Brandon McDonald are inactive.

NEW ORLEANS -- Linebacker Jonathan Vilma and running back Chris Ivory will not play for the New Orleans Saints on Monday night.

Vilma has been sidelined by a knee injury. Ivory is healthy, but the Saints elected to activate only Darren Sproles, Mark Ingram and Pierre Thomas for this game.

The other inactives for the Saints are offensive tackle William Robinson, tight end Michael Higgins, receiver Adrian Arrington and defensive end Turk McBride.

ATLANTA – The New Orleans Saints will be without injured running back Chris Ivory (hamstring) and cornerback Patrick Robinson (stomach).

Running back Mark Ingram, who had missed two games with an injury, is active and likely will be used in a rotation with Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas. With Robinson out, Tracy Porter and Jabari Greer will start at cornerback and the Saints likely will use Leigh Torrence as the nickelback.

Ivory and Robinson join linebacker Jonathan Vilma (knee), who already had been declared out on Sunday’s inactive list. Also inactive for the Saints are fullback Korey Hall, tackle Ray Willis, receiver Adrian Arrington and defensive end Turk McBride.

NEW ORLEANS -- We already told you middle linebacker Jonathan Vilma (knee) has been declared inactive for the game with Tampa Bay.

The other inactives for the Saints are running back Mark Ingram, cornerback Johnny Patrick, fullback Korey Hall, tackle Ray Willis, receiver Adrian Arrington and defensive end Jeff Charleston.

I'll be back with Tampa Bay's inactives in just a few minutes.

TAMPA, Fla. -- The New Orleans Saints just announced their inactives for Sunday’s game with Tampa Bay and there aren’t any surprises.

Three injured players, who already were declared out, highlight the list. Right tackle Zach Strief, tight end David Thomas and linebacker Will Herring were declared inactive.

The other inactives are cornerback Johnny Patrick, offensive lineman Matt Tennant, receiver Adrian Arrington and defensive end Jeff Charleston.

Thoughts on the New Orleans Saints’ victory against the Chicago Bears at the Superdome.

What it means: The Saints are 1-1 after facing two NFC North powerhouses. That’s not a bad spot to be in, because the schedule appears to get easier going forward. No matter what happens with Atlanta’s game Sunday night, the Saints will at least be tied for first place in the division.

What I liked: Drew Brees and Sean Payton usually do a nice job of spreading the ball around among their receivers, tight ends and running backs. With No. 1 receiver Marques Colston out with an injury, that didn’t change anything. The Saints simply got guys like tight end Jimmy Graham and Adrian Arrington more involved and the offense didn’t miss a beat.

What else I liked: The defense got some redemption after a horrible performance in the opener against Green Bay. The Saints were very aggressive against the Bears. They didn’t completely shut them down, but they stopped some drives by a good offense. That’s all you have to do when you have Brees and the New Orleans offense.

Unsung hero: Defensive end Turk McBride might have made the play of the game when he had a sack and forced fumble midway through the third quarter. At that point, the Saints had a 16-13 lead, but Jonathan Vilma recovered the fumble and Brees and the offense quickly punched the ball in for a touchdown and took control of the game.

Upgrade of the year: Running back Darren Sproles is what Reggie Bush always was supposed to be. Sproles can do a little bit of everything and he does it all very well.

Good news on the horizon: Defensive end Will Smith was suspended for the first two games. He’s eligible to return in Week 3.

What’s next: The Saints host the Houston Texans next Sunday.