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Check out this Insider piece with Todd McShay’s latest mock draft.

This one is a bit different than usual because McShay provides a few different scenarios for each team in the first round.

At No. 5, McShay has the Tampa Bay Buccaneers taking LSU cornerback Morris Claiborne. But he also says Alabama running back Trent Richardson is a possibility, if he’s available. In the current mock, Richardson isn’t an option for the Bucs because he’s going No. 4 to Cleveland. If Richardson’s available, would the Bucs take him? I don’t know exactly what general manager Mark Dominik and coach Greg Schiano are thinking and they’re not going to reveal their plans in advance.

If Claiborne and Richardson are both available, this is a tough call. The common logic in the NFL these days is that you don’t take a running back in the upper half of the first round, unless he truly is special. McShay, and others, are saying Richardson is the best running back to enter the draft since Adrian Peterson. If the Bucs agree, they may take a shot at Richardson. But I think Claiborne’s the safe choice. He’s the top cornerback in this draft and the Bucs are hoping they aren’t in position to draft top corners in the coming years. They can find a quality running back later in the draft. I’m also wondering if Oklahoma State receiver Justin Blackmon could be a consideration here. I know the Bucs just paid big money to free agent Vincent Jackson, but it seems like they want to surround quarterback Josh Freeman with as much talent as possible.

At No. 9, McShay has the Carolina Panthers taking Mississippi State defensive tackle Fletcher Cox. Makes sense and I can see this happening. But I also can see the Panthers going in an entirely different direction if they see a cornerback, linebacker, wide receiver or offensive tackle that they like better.

This is where we provide our reminder that the Falcons (Julio Jones) and the Saints (Mark Ingram) already have made use of their first-round picks in this draft.

There’s a debate among Tampa Bay fans about whether the Buccaneers should draft LSU cornerback Morris Claiborne or Alabama running back Trent Richardson with their first-round pick.

I don’t think either would be a mistake because the Bucs have needs at both positions. But there’s a longstanding rule of thumb in the NFL that you don’t take a running back early in the draft.

If you think that theory is outdated, you may want to take a look at this Insider post from Football Outsiders. It lays out some pretty convincing evidence that there’s not a lot to be gained by drafting a running back early in the first round.

The five leading rushers over the last five seasons are Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Steven Jackson, Chris Johnson and Michael Turner. Those five have combined for two playoff wins as starting running backs (and that doesn’t include two playoff victories Turner had as a backup to LaDainian Tomlinson with the 2007 Chargers).

The column then points to the backfields of the two Super Bowl teams. The New York Giants had Ahmad Bradshaw (a seventh-round pick) and Brandon Jacobs (a fourth-round pick). The New England Patriots had a pair of undrafted running backs in BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead as well as third-round pick Stevan Ridley.

Yes, the Bucs need someone to pair in the backfield with LeGarrette Blount. But, unless they believe Richardson is the kind of player who can be an exception to a rule, they might be wise to wait until later in the draft -- or use free agency -- to add a running back.

The New Orleans Saints’ defense has faced some nasty allegations lately.

First, the Tennessee Titans called safety Roman Harper a “dirty’’ player. Then, Minnesota running back Adrian Peterson said the Saints were intentionally going after his injured ankle in Sunday’s game.

There’s one man who is the unquestioned leader of the New Orleans defense. That’s middle linebacker Jonathan Vilma and he had plenty to say on the topic.

"We're an aggressive defense, we've always been an aggressive defense,’’ Vilma said. “I'd rather be labeled that than (not aggressive). We don't do anything intentionally or maliciously.’’

I’ll side with Vilma on this one. I don’t think the Saints are different than most defenses. Part of the job description is to be aggressive. Yeah, there are times when lines can become blurred. But Vilma’s right. Being aggressive is definitely better than the alternative.

A look at the top Saturday morning headlines from around the NFC South:

Former Atlanta Falcons coach Jim Mora reportedly will be the next coach at UCLA.

The New Orleans run defense, which has played well of late, faces a huge two-game challenge. The Saints will face Tennessee’s Chris Johnson on Sunday and Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson next week.

Atlanta’s Matt Ryan has been hit 65 times. Only five teams have allowed their quarterbacks to be hit more.

Carolina quarterback Cam Newton, who plays the Falcons on Sunday, had his lowest NFL passer rating in the Week 6 contest against Atlanta.

Scott Fowler points out that one thing the Panthers haven’t done this season is beat a big-time quarterback. Their wins have come against Curtis Painter, Josh Johnson, John Beck and Blaine Gabbert. They’ll have their shot against Ryan on Sunday.

Tampa Bay coach and defensive coordinator Raheem Morris already has said the Bucs will simplify what they do on defense. Now, offensive coordinator Greg Olson said the Bucs will scale things back offensively. I guess the only question left is if the Bucs will scale back what they do on special teams?

Tampa Bay safety Sean Jones was fined $20,000 for a helmet-to-helmet hit on Carolina’s Legedu Naanee last week.

When it comes to running backs that make things happen after they’ve been hit, the NFC South features three of the league’s best.

According to ESPN Stats & Information, Atlanta’s Michael Turner, Tampa Bay’s LeGarrette Blount and Carolina’s Jonathan Stewart are among the best in the league in gaining yards after initial contact by a defender.

Turner is No. 2 in the league with 530 yards after contact. Turner averages 2.5 yards per carry after contact and only Adrian Peterson (2.7), Ben Tate (2.7) and DeMarco Murray (2.6) have better averages.

Blount and Stewart don’t have as many carries as Turner, but each of them also averages 2.5 yards after contact per carry. Blount has gained 339 yards after first contact. Stewart has gained 228 yards.

Thoughts on the Atlanta Falcons’ 24-14 victory against the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday at the Georgia Dome.

What it means: The Falcons continue to be a hard team to figure out. They came out and started fast. They looked like they were going to have a very easy time with the Vikings. But Atlanta let Minnesota back in the game in the third quarter and that made things more interesting than they should have been. That’s kind of been the story of Atlanta’s entire season. The Falcons have been maddeningly inconsistent and nothing has come easy for them. But the bottom line is the Falcons are 7-4. They’ve pulled even with the Saints, who play Monday night, and they’re very much a factor in the NFC South race.

Roddy’s on a roll: After starting the season very slowly, receiver Roddy White has come on strong in the past two games. White had his second straight 100-yard receiving game and caught a touchdown pass. Fellow receiver Julio Jones also returned from a hamstring injury. Jones didn’t show up big on the stat sheet, but his presence helped White, Harry Douglas and Tony Gonzalez have big games. That’s a big part of the reason the Falcons traded up in the draft to get Jones.

What I didn’t like: I don’t think it was by design, but middle linebacker Curtis Lofton wound up in deep coverage on Percy Harvin on a fourth-down play in the fourth quarter. Lofton is a solid linebacker, but he shouldn’t ever be put in a situation where he has to cover a speed receiver downfield.

Defense rising: I’ve said several times throughout the season that the NFC South race will come down to defense. I realize the Vikings were playing without Adrian Peterson and were starting rookie quarterback Christian Ponder. But the Atlanta defense shut the Vikings down. Minnesota had only two first downs in the first half. It took some time to get it together, but Atlanta’s defense has played well in recent weeks and seems to be improving. If that continues, it could help the Falcons tremendously down the stretch.

What’s next: The Falcons travel to Houston to play the Texans next Sunday at Reliant Stadium.

The Atlanta Falcons got some good news Saturday morning.

The Minnesota Vikings went ahead and officially said running back Adrian Peterson will be out for Sunday’s game at the Georgia Dome. On Friday, the Vikings had listed Peterson as doubtful with an ankle sprain.

With Peterson officially out and Atlanta’s run defense playing well, it’s likely the Vikings will turn mostly to rookie quarterback Christian Ponder and the passing game.

Atlanta’s pass rush hasn’t been very prolific this season. But this may be one game where the Falcons get more aggressive with their blitz packages to try to force the rookie into mistakes.

It’s looking like the Atlanta Falcons won’t have to worry about Minnesota running back Adrian Peterson on Sunday.

The Vikings have released their Friday injury report and they listed Peterson as doubtful. He hasn’t practiced all week due to a sprained ankle. Without Peterson, the Vikings might have to ask more of rookie quarterback Christian Ponder and the passing game.

The Falcons have been particularly good at defending the run recently. They held Tennessee’s Chris Johnson to just 12 yards last week. Atlanta also has a 13-game streak of not allowing an individual running back to rush for 100 yards.

The Atlanta Falcons just sent out their Thursday injury report and there’s some pretty significant news on it. Rookie receiver Julio Jones, who had been sidelined by a hamstring injury, returned to practice.

Jones participated on a limited basis, but consider this a sign the Falcons are working toward getting him ready for Sunday’s home game with Minnesota.

Cornerback Kelvin Hayden (toe) did not practice. Left tackle Sam Baker (back), cornerback Brent Grimes and safety William Moore (quadriceps).

Minnesota’s injury report said running back Adrian Peterson (ankle) did not practice for the second straight day.

I was a little tied up this afternoon, working on a Thanksgiving story on a former NFC South player that will appear Thursday morning. But there was a lot happening throughout the division Wednesday afternoon, so let’s hit the links to catch up.

Atlanta coach Mike Smith said he expects rookie receiver Julio Jones, who has been sidelined by a hamstring injury, to return to practice Thursday.

The Falcons might be catching a break Sunday. Minnesota running back Adrian Peterson is still wearing a boot and his high-ankle sprain may keep him from playing in the game with Atlanta.

Tampa Bay safety Tanard Jackson, who had been sidelined with a hamstring injury, returned to practice Wednesday. Coach Raheem Morris sounded optimistic about Jackson’s chances of playing Sunday. Morris wasn’t as optimistic about defensive end Michael Bennett, who has a groin injury.

The Buccaneers, who have struggled to sell out home games in recent years, announced their pricing plan for 2012 season tickets. The team says the new plan will drop prices on 80 percent of the seats at Raymond James Stadium.

It looks like the Bucs will see Matt Hasselbeck at quarterback for the Titans on Sunday. Hasselbeck had to leave last Sunday's game with an elbow injury and the Titans had to turn to rookie Jake Locker. But Hasselbeck and coach Mike Munchak both said the injury should not be an issue.

Carolina rookie quarterback Cam Newton said he feels safer running than when he’s sitting back in the pocket. Makes plenty of sense. Newton is big and strong enough that the chances of him getting hurt while running aren’t that high. Newton’s most vulnerable when he’s stationary in the pocket and defenders can hit him from the blind side.

Bradley Handwerger writes about how successful the Saints have been coming off their bye week since coach Sean Payton changed his approach about time off in 2009.

On the surface, it looks like there’s a great argument brewing out there about who should be the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year.

The names Cam Newton, Andy Dalton and DeMarco Murray are getting tossed around. It makes for great conversation, but let’s face reality.

Newton won the award a long time ago. This race was over two weeks into the season. Despite some really nice deeds by Dalton and Murray, nothing really has changed and it’s not going to.

As the first overall pick in the draft, Newton came with all sorts of flash and glitter. He was a Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback on a national championship team at Auburn and that made him a strong favorite to win Rookie of the Year before the season ever started.

Newton settled it in two weeks. He threw for more than 400 yards in each of his first two games. No rookie quarterback had ever done that, and that’s the kind of thing that’s going to stick in the mind of voters.

Speaking of voters, let’s be very clear. We’re talking about the Associated Press NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award. There are other rookie honors out there and they matter. Just not as much as the one by the Associated Press.

If you don’t believe me, consider this: If a player gets an incentive clause in his contract for winning a Rookie of the Year award, it almost always is stipulated that he only gets paid if it’s the one from the Associated Press.

The way it works is the voters are writers from every NFL city. Majority rules and, unless Newton suffers a season-ending injury very soon, he’s going to win.

Yeah, I can hear the arguments coming from Dallas and Cincinnati and I respect them. But those folks can save themselves some pain later by realizing now that Murray and Dalton aren’t going to win the award.

I know everything is bigger in Texas and that’s why Dallas fans are going crazy about Murray. He has been incredible since Felix Jones went down with an injury in mid-October. Murray has 674 rushing yards this season with 601 of them coming in the past four games.

And I understand that the Cowboys are “America’s Team,’’ and Dallas is a much bigger media market than Charlotte or Cincinnati. But that actually could end up working against Murray. For a long time, there have been grumbles that it’s harder for Cowboys to get into the Pro Football Hall of Fame because voters feel saturated by anything to do with Dallas.

A lot of those voters are the same ones who select the Rookie of the Year. The Cowboys haven’t had one of those since Emmitt Smith in 1990.

Murray is good, but he’s not Emmitt Smith. You could make the case that we saw Murray last year. Tampa Bay’s LeGarrette Blount rushed for 1,000 yards in basically half a season (and for his next trick he’s trying to learn how to pass block) and he didn’t even come close to winning the award.

Sam Bradford did.

That’s because Bradford is a quarterback. Let’s face it, quarterbacks generally are going to win popularity contests simply because they’re quarterbacks. Four of the past seven winners have been quarterbacks. Heck, even Vince Young won it in 2006.

Once in awhile, as happened in 2007, an Adrian Peterson comes along. And in the years when no rookie quarterback does much, the award goes to a Percy Harvin or a Cadillac Williams. This isn’t one of those years.

That brings it down to Dalton and Newton.

Dalton is doing what Bradford did last year and what Matt Ryan did in 2008. He’s come in, played very well and his team is winning. The Bengals are 6-3 and Dalton has thrown for 1,866 yards and 14 touchdowns. He’s smart, doesn’t make big mistakes and there’s no doubt Dalton is a big reason Cincinnati is one of the league’s most surprising teams.

But he’s not the only reason. Cincinnati’s defense has been shockingly good. Dalton really hasn’t been shocking. He has only had one 300-yard game, and only one game in which he’s thrown more than two touchdown passes.

Is anybody really ready to call Dalton a franchise quarterback? Yeah, I know it might be a little tempting because it’s been tough to even call the Bengals a franchise for most of the time they’ve been in the league. But Dalton is not Newton. He’s not even close.

By about halftime of the opener, the world knew Newton was a franchise quarterback. He threw for 422 yards that day in Arizona. Then, he came back the next week and threw for 432 against Green Bay, and, suddenly, the Panthers had hope for the first time in a long time. They've still got it.

Yeah, both those games were losses, and, despite Newton’s play, the Panthers have continued to do a lot of losing. They’re 2-7 and we are talking about a game that’s supposed to be the ultimate team sport.

But Rookie of the Year isn’t a team award, which is significant because if you factored in the play of Carolina’s defense, Newton would be wearing heavy anchors on both his legs.

Rookie of the Year is an individual honor, and even if it wasn’t, Newton still would have the edge. He’s thrown for about 800 yards more than Dalton. Oh, and since we mentioned Newton’s legs, let’s take a look at rushing stats. Newton has rushed for 374 yards and seven touchdowns.

Dalton has run for 26 yards. If you really want to pad his stats, you could say he’s run for 78 feet, which is nice. But we’ve seen Dalton before. He compares nicely to guys like Ryan, Bradford, Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez as rookies.

We’ve never seen anything like Newton before. You could say he runs like Tim Tebow or Michael Vick. Or you could say he throws like Dan Marino or Peyton Manning. You’ve never been able to say both things about any single quarterback. Until now.

Yeah, Newton’s not perfect. He has thrown 10 interceptions (but Dalton has thrown nine on 40 less attempts). It also would be nice to see Newton get some wins. But those will come next season when the Panthers have had time to rebuild a defense that got shredded by injuries.

This is about this year. There’s no question Newton and Dalton have turned heads. But Newton is the only rookie who has had heads spinning.

With some help from ESPN Stats & Information and Dan Berglund of Tampa Bay’s media relations department, let’s take a look at some notes on the Buccaneers 24-17 victory against Indianapolis on “Monday Night Football."

• Tampa Bay is on a three-game winning streak. This marks the first time the Bucs have won three straight since coach Raheem Morris took over.
• LeGarrette Blount rushed for 127 yards. That’s his first 100-yard game of the season and the fifth of his career.
• Tampa Bay quarterback Josh Freeman now has nine career game-winning drives in the fourth quarter or overtime, including seven since the start of the 2010 season. That ties him with Atlanta’s Matt Ryan for the league lead in that span.
• Blount’s rushing yards looked exactly like what you would want from a power back who can wear down a defense. Blount had 17 yards in the first quarter and 15 in the second. In the third quarter, he had 33. In the fourth, he had 62.
• Of those 62 fourth-quarter yards by Blount, 24 came after contact by defenders. For the season, Blount ranks third in the league in average yards after contact in the fourth quarter. Blount is averaging 2.7 yards after contact in the fourth quarter. Peyton Hillis (3.7) leads and Adrian Peterson (2.8) is second.
• The Bucs had success when sending five or more rushers at Indianapolis quarterback Curtis Painter. In those situations, he completed only two of 11 attempts for 26 yards. Six of those incompletions were underthrown.
• The Bucs trailed by 10 points before rallying. That marked the ninth time Tampa Bay has rallied from a double-digit deficit since 2008. That’s the most in the NFL during that span. Houston, Indianapolis and Chicago are tied for second with six.
• The Bucs had 466 yards of total offense. That’s the most in franchise history for a home game.
• Freeman is only four games into his second full season as the starting quarterback, but he already has moved into sixth place in Tampa Bay history with 6,275 passing yards. Vinny Testaverde has the lead with 14,820.
• The Bucs recorded four sacks and held the opposing team to fewer than 100 rushing yards for the second straight week. Anybody else think Tampa Bay’s young defensive line is starting to come together?
• The Bucs didn’t commit a turnover against the Colts. Since 2002, Tampa Bay is 23-4 in games in which it did not have a turnover.

When it comes to gaining yards after first contact by a defender, Atlanta’s Michael Turner and Tampa Bay’s LeGarrette Blount are -- by far -- the most productive running backs in the NFC South.

According to ESPN Stats & Information, Turner is tied for fifth in the NFL with 113 rushing yards after contact (Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson leads with 179 yards). Turner is averaging 2.8 yards per carry after contact.

Blount is eighth in the NFL with 106 yards after contact. He’s averaging 2.5 yards per carry after contact. No other NFC South runner comes close to Turner and Blount.

Carolina’s Jonathan Stewart is No. 29 with 57 yards and averages 2.5 yards after contact. New Orleans rookie Mark Ingram is No. 30 with 56 yards (a 1.6-yard average) and teammate Pierre Thomas is No. 31 with 53 yards (averaging 2.5 yards after contact).

Thoughts on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' victory against the Minnesota Vikings at the Metrodome:

What it means: The Bucs were on their way to seeing their season slip away when their offense failed to show up in the first half. The Bucs were down 17-0 at halftime and had only three first downs in the first two quarters. Then, the second half started and Josh Freeman and the offense suddenly started clicking. When’s the last time the Bucs had a quarterback who could fall that far behind and bring them back? They never have.

What I liked: Coach Raheem Morris, who must have given one heck of a halftime speech, and offensive coordinator Greg Olson didn’t give up on the running game after falling behind, like they did in the opener. They kept using LeGarrette Blount and he ended up scoring two second-half touchdowns.

What else I liked: The defensive performance in the second half was pretty remarkable. The defense spent way too much time on the field in the first half. When that happens against Adrian Peterson, it’s usually a formula for disaster. But this young defense stepped up and held the Vikings to a field goal in the second half. Of course, it helped a bit that the offense was doing its job in the second half.

Wide receivers step up: The Bucs have been searching for a No. 2 receiver to complement Mike Williams. It looks like they’re making some progress in this area. Arrelious Benn, who is coming off a serious knee injury, had a touchdown catch and Dezmon Briscoe had four catches for 42 yards.

What’s next: The Bucs host the Falcons next Sunday at Raymond James Stadium.

ATLANTA – I’m watching the other tree NFC South game as I get ready to cover Sunday night’s game between the Falcons and Eagles, and we’ve got some very interesting stuff going on.

Here are some quick observations on the other games as they went to halftime.

• There’s a potential upset brewing in Carolina. The Panthers have a 13-7 lead on the defending Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers. Rookie quarterback Cam Newton is showing he’s not a one-game wonder. In some ways, Newton has looked even better than he did in his debut. Also, Carolina’s defense had a great first half, even with middle linebacker Jon Beason out for the rest of the season.

• Tampa Bay has gotten running back LeGarrette Blount involved early, but the offense is still struggling. Tampa Bay has only three first downs and the defense is spending way too much time on the field. That’s the same thing that happened in the opener, and Tampa Bay’s defense isn’t one you want on the field all day against Adrian Peterson. I’m shocked at how poorly Tampa Bay’s offense as played this season. I thought the offense would be the strength of this team. If the Bucs don’t get this offense on track quickly, this season is going to get out of control in a hurry.

• The Saints are in a tight game with the Bears. The thing I’m most impressed with his how well the Saints are moving the ball with top receiver Marques Colston out with an injury. Drew Brees continues to do a great job of spreading the ball around and Devery Henderson stepped up with a big touchdown catch. Running back Darren Sproles continues to impress as an all-around player. New Orleans defensive coordinator Gregg Williams has been bringing the blitz a lot. It hasn’t resulted in any big plays for the Saints yet, but you can almost feel that coming. One discouraging sight for the Saints came right before the end of the first half. Middle linebacker Jonathan Vilma left for the locker room with an unspecified injury.