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There’s a perception out there that Tampa Bay quarterback Josh Freeman relied too much on tight end Kellen Winslow last season.

Just watching the Buccaneers play last year, I shared that perception. But let’s turn to ESPN Stats & Information for some evidence that Freeman was forcing too many throws to Winslow, who was traded to Seattle on Monday night.

Freeman and Winslow formed a pretty good tandem back in 2010 and that led to some talk from Winslow about how he believed he could double his statistics in 2011. That didn’t happen.

In 2010, Winslow, when playing with Freeman, was targeted 94 times and had 66 receptions (a 70.2 completion percentage) while averaging 7.8 yards per attempt with five touchdowns and one interception. Winslow also had three drops. Freeman turned to Winslow even more frequently in 2011, targeting him 111 times. But the rest of the numbers weren’t as good as the previous season. Winslow and Freeman connected on only 64 percent of their passes last year and averaged just 6.5 yards per attempt. More importantly, Winslow caught only two touchdown passes from Freeman, but the quarterback was intercepted 10 times when targeting his tight end.

Over the past four seasons, the only quarterback-receiver tandem that combined for more interceptions when a specific receiver was targeted was Cincinnati’s Carson Palmer and Terrell Owens in 2010.

There was a time -- like pretty much the last 50 years -- when a Heisman Trophy wasn’t a very good thing for a quarterback to have on his résumé as he entered the NFL.

When Baylor’s Robert Griffin III gets taken early in next week’s NFL draft, he could be the latest piece in the trend of turning around the apparent curse on quarterbacks who won the Heisman. It has started to change only recently, but all of the sudden it’s looking like the trophy isn’t an anchor guaranteeing NFL mediocrity or obscurity for a quarterback.

Look back at 2010 winner Cam Newton. He was last year’s offensive rookie of the year for the Carolina Panthers and set all sorts of rookie passing (and rushing) records. There’s big hope in St. Louis that 2008 winner Sam Bradford can get back to the promise he showed as a rookie after struggling through a rough 2010 season. Then there’s 2007 winner Tim Tebow. He couldn’t throw spirals in Denver, but he won games. That at least created a market for Tebow to get traded to the New York Jets, where it remains to be seen if he’ll ever be able to win the starting job away from Mark Sanchez.

But there’s at least hope that Griffin, Newton, Bradford and Tebow can go on to have long and prosperous NFL careers. Before they came along, there were decades of evidence that suggested quarterbacks should just quit the game after winning the Heisman.

Remember Troy Smith, Eric Crouch, Danny Wuerffel, Charlie Ward and Gino Torretta? How about Ty Detmer, Andre Ware or Pat Sullivan?

They had little to no success in the NFL.

And remember Jason White?

I honestly did not at first. I had to go back and look up White, who won the trophy not all that long ago. He won it in 2003 while putting up some gaudy numbers at the University of Oklahoma. White didn’t even get drafted and quit football altogether after a short training-camp stint with the Tennessee Titans. He never even played in a regular-season NFL game.

Guys like White, Smith, Crouch, Wuerffel, Ward, Torretta, Detmer, Ware and Sullivan all had some things in common. In general, they were able to win the Heisman because they put up big statistics at programs where they were surrounded by elite players. They also had limitations -- usually in size, speed or arm strength -- that prevented them from being taken very seriously by NFL talent evaluators.

But those same evaluators also missed on some Heisman winners who seemed to have what the NFL wanted. Remember Matt Leinart?

He came from one of those football factories (USC), where he was surrounded by guys like Reggie Bush, but Leinart was supposed to be the one whose college success could transfer to the NFL. That’s why the Arizona Cardinals drafted him in the first round. But Leinart was nothing short of a tremendous disappointment.

When he flopped, it looked like there really was something to the Heisman Curse.

Prior to Tebow, Bradford, Newton and Griffin, you’ve got to look at a list of 18 quarterbacks who won the Heisman before you find one who really made it big. You’ve got to go all the way back to Roger Staubach, who won it for Navy in 1963. He went on to have a great career for the Dallas Cowboys and earned a spot in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Since Staubach won the Heisman, other quarterbacks have had to settle for just getting into the College Football Hall of Fame.

Sure, there have been a few Heisman winners to come out and have some success. Jim Plunkett won two Super Bowls, but his career didn’t really take off until he landed with the Raiders after mediocre stints in New England and San Francisco.

Vinny Testaverde had an extremely long NFL career and the longevity led to some impressive career statistics. But Testaverde never had the kind of career so many people imagined when he was coming out of the University of Miami and taken No. 1 overall by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 1987.

Guys like Steve Spurrier and Doug Flutie bounced around and had some success. Then there’s Carson Palmer, who has had some bright moments, but still is trying to fully live up to the Heisman hype.

But Newton, Griffin, Tebow and Bradford finally might be able to put a stop to the near-half-decade drought of Heisman Trophy winners truly excelling in the NFL.

“Cam Newton is the best thing to ever happen to Robert Griffin III,’’ former NFL quarterback Chris Weinke said as we discussed this year’s crop of quarterbacks back in February. “Just like Drew Brees is the best thing to happen to [Wisconsin draft prospect Russell Wilson]. Cam showed that a big, athletic quarterback that can run can be great in the NFL. Brees showed that a guy that’s not 6-foot-4 or 6-foot-5 can throw for 5,000 yards in an NFL season. We all know the NFL is a copycat league. Cam’s success and Drew’s success helps the draft stock of guys like Robert and Russell.’’

Ironically, Weinke’s name is another one on that Heisman list. His story might be the most unique of all the Heisman-winning quarterbacks. Weinke enrolled at Florida State after giving up a minor-league baseball career. He won the Heisman in 2000 and seemed to have the talent of a classic drop-back passer, but the fact he would turn 29 in his rookie training camp, pushed him into the fourth round of the 2001 draft. The Carolina Panthers took him and he started under coach George Seifert as a rookie, but never could quite won over John Fox, who took over the next year.

Weinke spent the next five seasons as a backup in Carolina and finished his career in 2007 with San Francisco.

These days, Weinke has carved a niche as a quarterback guru. He is the director of football operations at IMG Academies in Bradenton, Fla. He has worked extensively with Newton and some other quarterback prospects over the past few years.

Weinke says he’s seen the game change just since his playing days ended. Like just about everyone else, he says the NFL has become more driven by quarterbacks. He says natural talent is a prerequisite for NFL success and he points to guys like Newton and Griffin, saying they could be a new prototype. And he goes back to his point about the NFL being a copycat league.

“People are always looking for what works,’’ Weinke said. “Cam obviously had a fantastic rookie season. So people look at Robert and say he can do the same thing because the skill sets are similar.’’

For Griffin, Newton and Bradford -- and perhaps even Tebow in his own way -- maybe the skill sets are so good that it no longer matters if a quarterback is lugging around a Heisman Trophy.

Check out this Insider post by Trent Dilfer. He ranks the NFL’s quarterbacks, starters and even some backups, although Jimmy Clausen didn’t quite make the list.

Dilfer breaks the quarterbacks down into seven categories and I don’t think anyone will be surprised to hear that he’s got Drew Brees in his “Hall of Fame’’ category. There’s little doubt Brees will be in the Hall of Fame someday, and there’s absolutely no doubt he’s one of the league’s top two or three quarterbacks these days.

I think even fans of other teams freely will admit Brees is the NFC South’s best quarterback. That brings us to the quarterbacks of the other NFC South teams and how they fared in Dilfer’s rankings.

Two categories down, Dilfer includes Atlanta’s Matt Ryan in his “A Ring Away’’ category. He has Ryan grouped with guys like Philip Rivers, Joe Flacco, Tony Romo and Matthew Stafford.

The next category down is “Mostly Good’’ and that’s where Dilfer has Carolina’s Cam Newton and Tampa Bay’s Josh Freeman. They’re grouped with guys like Michael Vick, Andy Dalton and Carson Palmer.

Overall, I’ve got no issues with Dilfer’s list. I’m often asked in chats to rank the four NFC South quarterbacks. During last season, I tried to stay away from picking between Ryan and Newton as the No. 2 quarterback in the division. That’s mainly because Ryan and Newton are completely different quarterbacks. It also was because we were watching Newton evolve in his rookie season and there were changes in his level of play (usually for the better) just about every week.

But, since the season is over and since we’re on the topic, I’ll go ahead and reveal my rankings of the four NFC South quarterbacks. I’ll go in the same order Dilfer did.

We already addressed Brees and we’ll finish with Freeman. But why am I taking Ryan over Newton? First off, I’m only taking Ryan slightly over Newton. He’s been in the league for four years and has won each of those seasons. He hasn’t won big yet, but he may. Newton has way more upside than Ryan, but he’s not a finished product yet. A year from now, I might be sitting here writing that Newton is way better than Ryan. Heck, I might even be writing Newton is better than Brees.

He’s got that kind of upside. But he’s only played one season and only won six games. Let’s see a little more of Newton.

That brings us to Freeman. At the start of this past season, I thought Freeman had a chance to jump over Ryan into the No. 2 spot. That obviously didn’t happen and Freeman tumbled to No. 4 in the division. But Dilfer wrote that he still thinks Freeman can become elite. I agree totally.

Yes, Freeman had a bad 2011 season and some of the blame falls on him for that. But I put more blame on his coaching and supporting cast. I think the talent is there and Freeman can bounce back in 2012.

Anyway, those are my rankings at the moment. I know they’re open to debate. That’s what the comments section below is for.

Tim Tebow aside, the biggest quarterback story in the league this year might be one that’s really about next year.

What should the Indianapolis Colts do?

They almost certainly will have the first pick in the 2012 draft, and Stanford’s Andrew Luck, perhaps the best quarterback prospect to come along in the past decade, will be sitting there. At the same time, Peyton Manning, perhaps the best quarterback ever, is expected back from a neck injury that has sidelined him all season.

The draft is more than four months away and Manning’s 36th birthday will come in a little more than three months. Already, there is a ton of speculation about what the Colts should do.

The three choices being thrown about: Manning? Luck? Or both?

All those are on the table, but I think the Colts would be making a big mistake if they go with both. Sure, it sounds great to pair the greatest quarterback of this generation with the guy who might be the best quarterback of the next.

But that’s in theory. Reality is a different story. If Manning comes back to stay and Luck is the draft pick, the Colts are asking for trouble.

The thing we, as a society, tend to forget is that you don’t get to be an NFL quarterback without being extremely competitive and at least a little selfish. Manning wasn’t put on this earth to be a glorified quarterbacks coach. If he comes back to the Colts, he’s coming back as the starter, not a mentor.

This whole scenario reminds me of a story I did soon after joining ESPN.com. In March 2008, Brett Favre announced his retirement (for the first time). I called heir apparent Aaron Rodgers, who had been drafted in the first round in 2005, for reaction and was a little stunned by what I got.

"Obviously, when a team drafts a quarterback in the first round, that's a pretty big statement," Rodgers said. "At that time, Brett felt like he still had plenty left in his tank and those are some pretty difficult terms to come in under. That first year, we were just teammates."

For perhaps the first time ever, Rodgers admitted that Favre didn’t welcome him with open arms and there was trouble in paradise (or at least the land of the Cheeseheads). That’s not an uncommon phenomenon.

Kurt Warner wasn’t ready to hand the ball to Matt Leinart when the Cardinals drafted him in 2006. Drew Brees wasn’t overjoyed when the Chargers brought in Philip Rivers in 2004. Heck, you can go even further back. It’s common knowledge that Joe Montana and veteran Steve Bono didn’t treat Steve Young like a close friend (and I’m being very generous with the wording here) when they were together in San Francisco in the 1990s.

That’s because guys like Montana, Favre, Warner and Brees are so competitive. All of them fought for their jobs and, at least initially, kept it. The eventual passing of the torch from Favre to Rodgers worked out fine for the Packers, but it definitely caused a rift in the short term.

You could argue the Chargers and Cardinals made mistakes by bringing in replacements for Brees and Warner before they were ready to even think about being replaced.

That’s why, no matter what Archie Manning says on any given day about his son and Luck coexisting, any thought of that coupling is a formula for problems.

The Colts really can’t afford to have both Manning and Luck -- and we’re not talking about the salary cap. We’re talking about a situation that would be unhealthy for the players and the team.

The Colts can bring Manning back for the quick fix and trade the pick. (Bill Polian did that in 1995, when he was with the expansion Carolina Panthers.) Or the Colts can trade Manning to clear the way for Luck to start with a clean slate.

It’s one or the other. You can’t have both.

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Every week, it seems we hear about how passing numbers around the NFL are at an all-time high. For the past couple of years, we’ve heard coaches, front-office personnel and media experts talk about how it’s now a "quarterback-driven league."

The numbers support the theory in most ways. But I’m starting to wonder if throwing the ball all over the field every week really is a good thing.

I’m looking at the three quarterbacks with the highest passing totals in Week 9. Philip Rivers threw for 385 yards. Tom Brady had 342. Carson Palmer threw for 332 yards in just his second game with the Raiders.

Guess what? Rivers, Brady and Palmer all lost Sunday.

They all threw at least 35 times, with Brady attempting 49 passes. They combined for nine touchdown passes, but also combined for eight interceptions. Rivers and Palmer each threw three interceptions.

All this leads me to believe it’s not so much about quantity but quality when it comes to quarterback play.

Yes, there’s no doubt you have to throw the ball to win in the modern NFL. But there’s some sort of fine line out there. If you cross it, you’re asking for trouble. When you’re throwing too many times, you’re opening yourself up to too many mistakes.

You’re also making your team one-dimensional, and that’s never a good thing. Balance on offense is a wonderful thing.

So where is the line between enough passing and too much?

It’s not that difficult to spot. Let’s just go back to the stats from Sunday’s games. Let’s use Dallas’ Tony Romo and New Orleans’ Drew Brees as models.

Their numbers were a little bit less than what Rivers, Brady and Palmer turned in. But here’s the crucial difference -- Romo and Brees won.

Romo attempted 31 passes and completed 19 for 279 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. Brees completed 27 of 36 attempts for 258 yards with two touchdowns and one interception.

There’s a very common thread here. Unlike Rivers, Brady and Palmer, Romo and Brees had plenty of help. It came from their running games.

Dallas’ DeMarco Murray rushed for 139 yards. New Orleans’ trio of Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory combined for 175 rushing yards.

Take the New Orleans model back another week. In Week 8, Brees attempted 44 passes and had 269 yards. In that game, the Saints had virtually no running game. They lost to the previously winless St. Louis Rams and came home intent on putting more balance in their offense.

Too much of a good thing can become a bad thing. Yes, it is a quarterback-driven league. But the Week 9 statistics show us that you should keep a quarterback’s throws somewhere between 31 and 36, and you need to be able to run the ball (and maybe play a little defense).

If the quarterback is driving the car all by himself, the team is not going anywhere.

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With Carolina’s Cam Newton, there’s been shock, awe and a lot of losing. With “the other’’ rookie quarterback that’s been starting all season, there simply has been a lot of winning.

That’s Cincinnati’s Andy Dalton, who, very quietly, has his team off to a 4-2 start. Jacksonville’s Blaine Gabbert was tossed into the starting role after opening the season on the bench, and the same is about to happen with Minnesota’s Christian Ponder.

Newton’s had 400-yard passing games and turned heads with his feet. That’s great, but the only rookie quarterback who is winning regularly so far is the guy who was drafted in the second round. Dalton was taken with the 35th overall pick at a time when it still looked as if Carson Palmer might return and the rookie could develop slowly behind him.

Instead, Palmer stuck to his demand to be traded or released and stayed away from the Bengals. That cleared the way for Dalton to be the No. 1 quarterback right away. The numbers haven’t been quite Newtonesque, but Dalton has had games where he threw for 332 and 298 yards and the Bengals have won their past three games.

It’s not like Dalton was thrown in as a game manager and the Bengals are winning in spite of him. This was a team that couldn’t win with Palmer last season and Dalton has come in and made an immediate difference.

“The quarterback, he is our centerpiece, and we develop offense through Andy,’’ Cincinnati coach Marvin Lewis said. “Everything we do comes through Andy. People asked me, ‘How are you going to be with a young quarterback?’ Well, a young quarterback is going to be our offense and he is going to be what our offense is. You can see what we do and we do it through him. That’s why we felt so good about this guy.”

What Dalton did at Texas Christian was throw accurate passes and win. After an 8-5 record as a freshman, Dalton was 34-3 the next three seasons.

It’s been more of the same since Dalton took over the Bengals. He’s completing 62.4 percent of his passes. Tight end Jermaine Gresham and rookie receiver A.J. Green have made Dalton look good by catching some passes that weren’t exactly where they were supposed to be. But there haven’t been off-target throws.

But the best thing the Bengals might have done for Dalton was to pair him with offensive coordinator Jay Gruden. A longtime Arena Football League coach, Gruden puts an emphasis on getting rid of the ball quickly.

That helps limit the pressure on Dalton and eliminates room for potential mistakes, and Dalton’s only getting better. In the past two games, he’s thrown just one interception and been sacked twice. In Sunday’s victory against Indianapolis, Dalton completed a season-high 78.1 percent of his passes and he’s singing the praises of Gruden.

“There is a lot of give and take,’’ Dalton said. “We don’t know anything different. With he and I coming here at the same time, we were both going to have new people around us. It has been great. He’s done a great job calling plays.”

It’s all worked out so well with the arrival of Dalton and Gruden that the Bengals finally put Palmer in their past. They traded Palmer to Oakland on Tuesday because they already had moved on so nicely without him.

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There’s an ancient NFL proverb that says you shouldn’t play a rookie quarterback right away. If you do, the logic goes, you might ruin him.

In breaking and somewhat related news: The world is flat.

Yeah, Christopher Columbus shot the second one down, and let’s turn to Cam Newton and Andy Dalton to take care of the first. Let’s label the exhibits Rookie QB 1 and Rookie QB 2.

Just look at the evidence Newton and Dalton put on the field Sunday as the only two rookie quarterbacks to start the season. Newton threw for 422 yards, the most ever by a player making his NFL debut.

And this was a guy who some fans and draft gurus said wouldn’t be able to run an NFL offense?

Then there was Dalton. He wasn’t as flamboyant as Newton, and he left the game with an injury. But, before he did, Dalton was a very efficient 10-of-15 passing for 81 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions to help the Cincinnati Bengals kick off the post-Carson Palmer era with a victory against Cleveland.

And Dalton slid all the way to the second round of the draft?

There’s a lesson to be learned from what Newton and Dalton did on Sunday. You can start a rookie quarterback right off the bat. And this theory’s not exactly brand new.

Take a look at recent years. Sam Bradford, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez have played quickly and fared well. As a matter of fact, can you name the last early draft pick who truly got "ruined" by playing too soon?

I say it’s David Carr, and that was a long time ago and in unique circumstances. Carr was playing on the expansion Houston Texans, who never really did anything to build a quality offensive line during his tenure.

You can throw out names like Joey Harrington, JaMarcus Russell, Vince Young and Alex Smith. But I think those were guys who were going to struggle no matter how soon they played.

Yeah, maybe in a dream world you can let Aaron Rodgers sit behind Brett Favre for a few years. But the NFL’s not a dream world, and maybe it’s time for those still clinging to the myth that a quarterback has to sit to let go.

Maybe it’s time -- or at least close to time -- for the Vikings, Jaguars and Titans to realize they’ve got nothing to lose by playing Christian Ponder, Blaine Gabbert and Jake Locker sooner rather than later.

In a new age when first-round rookie contracts are limited to four years with an option for a fifth, there’s a sense of urgency to find out what a quarterback can do. Yeah, you can make the argument that’s throwing a guy to the wolves. But the Panthers threw Newton to the Cardinals and the Bengals threw Dalton to the Browns and no one got ruined.

This is the inaugural edition of Quarterback Watch. We’ll be here every Wednesday throughout the season, examining the trends and themes involving quarterbacks and looking at whose stock is on the rise and whose is declining.

TRENDING UP

Let’s take a plunge into the NFC South mailbag.

Kyle in Blacksburg, Va., wrote to ask if the Panthers might pursue quarterback Carson Palmer, if he is available.

Pat Yasinskas: There’s been a lot of speculation about Palmer’s future in Cincinnati and it’s possible he could become available. He’s an experienced quarterback and coach Ron Rivera has said he’d like to add a veteran to go with Cam Newton and Jimmy Clausen. But that veteran clearly is going to be asked to take on a mentor role. Palmer’s been a starter throughout his career and I’m not sure he’s ready to accept a backup role or even willing to come into a situation where he might be a short-term starter. But, if Palmer does hit the market, I think the Panthers would be wise to at least talk to him and see what kind of role he’s looking for.

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Joel in Cary, N.C., saw our post on Brett Favre and Steve Young, a pair of guys who had brief stints with NFC South teams before going on to greatness elsewhere and said he can imagine Clausen following the same path in the future.

Pat Yasinskas: It’s at least possible. If Newton works out well in Carolina, then Clausen’s not going to stick around for the long term. It’s not really fair to judge Clausen on last season, because he was in a horrible offense and a terrible situation. But there are plenty of people around the league who think Clausen can be an NFL quarterback. Time will tell.

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JP in Inverness, Fla., asks if Aqib Talib and Tanard Jackson might have helped their chances of staying with the Bucs by showing up for the recent players-only minicamp.

Pat Yasinskas: Well, they certainly didn’t hurt their chances of staying with the Bucs by showing up. Obviously, the coaching staff wasn’t involved in the workout because of the lockout. But the Bucs monitor everything and you can bet they’re well aware Talib and Jackson showed up. Showing that they’re focused on football at least sends a positive message to the Bucs.

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Christian in Denver saw Kevin Seifert’s item on Julius Peppers’ Hall of Fame chances and asks if Peppers makes the Hall of Fame will he be pictured in a Carolina or Chicago jersey.

Pat Yasinskas: The Pro Football Hall of Fame doesn’t work that way. The Baseball Hall of Fame requires a player to decide which hat he wants on his plaque. But there are no uniforms or logos on Pro Football Hall of Fame busts and players who played for different teams don’t have to declare one as their primary team. They represent every team they played for.

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Mike from Marrero, La., asks if the Saints and Falcons will ever reach a point where they have a nationally recognized rivalry like the Colts and Patriots.

Pat Yasinskas: If both teams continue playing the way they have the past couple of seasons, absolutely. These teams really don’t like each other and it shows up on the field. A few more great games between these two teams could make Atlanta-New Orleans one of the league’s top current rivalries.

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Dan in Tampa thinks Reggie Bush could be a perfect fit in Tampa Bay’s backfield.

Pat Yasinskas: If Bush comes available from New Orleans, I could see him in Tampa Bay. The Bucs have LeGarrette Blount as their starting running back, but Cadillac Williams is a potential free agent. If Williams leaves, the Bucs have a big void at third-down back. Bush certainly has the receiving skills to be successful in that role.

I’m not trying to curb the enthusiasm in the Carolinas after the Panthers used the No. 1 overall pick in the draft on quarterback Cam Newton. It’s a move with huge upside and we’ll find out a few years down the road if it was indeed the right move.

However, there’s an discouraging statistic, courtesy of the Elias Sports Bureau, that suggests Newton and coach Ron Rivera face an uphill battle. Since 1990, seven rookie head coaches have had the No. 1 overall pick and used it on a quarterback.

None of them has won a postseason game. Think Mike Nolan and Alex Smith in San Francisco, Dom Capers and David Carr in Houston, Marvin Lewis and Carson Palmer in Cincinnati, Chris Palmer and Tim Couch in Cleveland, Lane Kiffin and JaMarcus Russell in Oakland, Jim Schwartz and Matthew Stafford in Detroit and Steve Spagnuolo and Sam Bradford in St. Louis.

There seems to be hope for Stafford and Bradford to become successful quarterbacks. Carson Palmer had some good times in Cincinnati, but wants out of there and may get his wish. Other than that, all of the guys on the above list have flopped.

If you want to find a rookie head coach who used the No. 1 overall pick on a quarterback, you have to go all the way back to Jimmy Johnson. Back in 1989, he took Troy Aikman with the first pick, a move that helped the Cowboys become a dynasty for much of the 1990s.

ESPN.com’s NFL writers rank the top 10 quarterbacks in the league today.
Next week: Top 10 safeties.

Take eight football writers scattered from Seattle to Tampa and ask them to come up with a list of the top 10 quarterbacks in the National Football League.

Sounds easy enough, in theory. You take the golden gunslingers, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, and let everyone else fall naturally into order after that. Well, it didn’t quite work out that simply in ESPN.com’s Power Rankings for quarterbacks.

Heck, we couldn’t even come up with a top 10. We’re going with a top 11 because Baltimore’s Joe Flacco and Dallas’ Tony Romo tied for No. 10 with five points each in our voting system.

Even at the top, there was more disagreement than you might expect. Brady emerged as No. 1, but it wasn’t unanimous and, although Manning finished a strong second, two ballots had a man some consider the best quarterback ever at No. 3.

But let’s start analyzing the rankings by focusing on just Brady and Manning. Six voters put Brady at No. 1, but Paul Kuharsky and Mike Sando put Manning in the top spot. Let’s hear them out.

“Brady's fantastic, let's start with that,’’ said Kuharsky, who covers the AFC South, also known as “The Division Manning Built and Owns." “But no one is asked to do more or does more as a quarterback than Peyton Manning. He almost plays a different position. And while Brady's got three rings to Manning's one and is the reigning MVP, look at their touchdown and interception numbers in their last four playoff games. Manning's are better.’’

Sando has no horse in this race, because voters unanimously agreed the NFC West is the division that forgot quarterbacks, at least until Sam Bradford gets another season under his belt.

“Brady has the better stats over the last couple seasons, but the Colts would undoubtedly be far worse off than the Patriots if both teams had backups under center,’’ Sando said. “Once that was established, Brady's recent postseason struggles became a deciding factor. These quarterbacks have, to an extent, switched roles recently. Manning has won a championship more recently than Brady has won one. Brady has seven touchdowns, seven picks and one victory in his last four playoff games. Manning has seven touchdowns, two picks and two victories in his last four.’’

For rebuttal, let’s head up to the AFC East, to the man who covers Brady and the New England Patriots.

“I'm not sure why everybody needs to consider career achievements when filling out a Power Rankings ballot,’’ Tim Graham said. “Power Rankings are a snapshot of the moment and are expected to change regularly, not encompass years of work. But if the reason for selecting Manning ahead of Brady is recent playoff performances that go back a few years, then Ben Roethlisberger should be ahead of Manning with that logic. Roethlisberger has been to a pair of Super Bowls and won his second title more recently than Manning's only championship.’’

We’ll come to Roethlisberger in just a moment, but nobody put him ahead of Manning on his ballot. Kevin Seifert and I each put a quarterback ahead of Manning.

Seifert put Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers at No. 2.

“Mostly, I didn't think I could face NFC North blog readers if I voted any other way,’’ Seifert said. “Seriously, I think the big advantage Manning and Drew Brees have over Rodgers is time. They've been playing longer and therefore have mostly better career numbers and a bigger frame of reference for knowing how they will perform in the long term. But when you take out longevity, Rodgers is right there with them. All three have one Super Bowl victory. Rodgers has a higher career passer rating than any quarterback in the history of the NFL with qualified attempts, better than Manning and Brees and Brady for that matter. So to break the tie, I think you can look at what they did most recently. I think Rodgers had a better 2010 season than Manning or Brees, and that's how I would justify this order.’’

I put Brees at No. 2 and don’t really want to write a story in which I quote myself, so I’ll just say Brees and Manning each have one Super Bowl ring and Brees’ numbers over the last four years are just as good or better in most categories. Plus, Brees hasn’t spent most of his career surrounded by the likes of Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark and Edgerrin James.

In the final analysis, Brees finished third and Rodgers fourth. Roethlisberger, who has two Super Bowl rings, came in at No. 5. San Diego’s Philip Rivers, who has zero Super Bowl rings and some gaudy statistics, is No. 6. Relatively speaking, the order from Brees to Rivers, the guy who took his place with the Chargers, was pretty clear-cut.

After that, we had some close calls, strong differences of opinion and one very big coincidence. At No. 7, we’ve got a tie between Philadelphia’s Michael Vick and Atlanta’s Matt Ryan, who each finished with 26 points. For those who don’t see the irony in that, Vick was the face of Atlanta’s franchise for a long time and Ryan now holds that role.

Eli Manning of the New York Giants came in at No. 9, and Flacco and Romo tied for the final spot. Only three other quarterbacks received votes. They were Tampa Bay’s Josh Freeman, who I think could be near the top of this list in another year or two, Houston’s Matt Schaub and Kansas City’s Matt Cassel.

On to some other notes about the Power Rankings.

The Vick factor. Despite a hugely productive season last year, Vick was left off one very important ballot. John Clayton, the dean of all of us, didn’t have the Philadelphia quarterback on his ballot and was the only one of us who didn't.

“The only reason Michael Vick didn’t make my top 10 is because I, after an offseason of thinking, have Michael Vick as my No. 11 quarterback,’’ Clayton said. “That still makes him elite. I have 12 elite quarterbacks. Vick moved into the elite category with his performance last year, but it’s just one year. He can clearly move up the list this season, but he’s in the mix and knocking on the door of the top 10. A year ago, he wasn’t a consideration.’’

Fighting the Eli fight. Speaking of Clayton, let’s continue to ride that train as we discuss Eli Manning. Seifert, Sando, Graham and I didn’t even include Manning in our top 10, but he still made the list.

“I will continue to fight the argument Eli Manning is an elite quarterback,’’ Clayton said. “I moved him to No. 8 above Tony Romo, but if Romo had a full season last year, he might have been ahead of Eli. Remember that Carson Palmer, Brett Favre and Donovan McNabb dropped from my elite quarterback categories, which moved guys like Eli up in the mix. Eli has a Super Bowl ring. He’s a 4,000-yard quarterback. He wins.’’

No tiebreaking here. Speaking of Romo: Clayton and Sando each had him at No. 9. AFC North blogger James Walker had Romo at No. 10. That was good enough to get Romo five points and a tie with Flacco. One interesting note here: Flacco wasn’t on Walker’s ballot. I respect James for not doing the easy thing and being a "homer," although I’m sure some Baltimore fans might have different opinions.

"Joe Flacco is a good quarterback, but I don’t consider him an elite, top-10 quarterback just yet,’’ Walker said. “I need to see more consistency, especially in the playoffs and other big games against the Steelers. Flacco has a lot of natural ability, and I believe he’s ready to break through. But, in my book, Flacco needs to first prove it on the field in the biggest games to be elite.”

The final analysis. If you look at this list from a distance, you could say the Atlanta Falcons, San Diego Chargers and New England Patriots are the big winners. The Patriots, of course, have Brady, but they also drafted Cassel, whom they later traded to Kansas City. If you want to get really technical, the Chargers drafted Brees and Eli Manning and worked a draft-day trade with the Giants to end up with Rivers. If you count the few minutes Manning and Rivers were crossing paths, you could say the Chargers, at one time or another, had three guys on this list. You also could say the Falcons drafted Vick, Ryan and Schaub, who finished in a tie with Freeman for No. 12.

We have a very interesting story over on our news side that reveals the National Football League has proposed to divert about $300 million a year from guaranteed money for rookies to benefits and salaries for veterans.

We’ve gone a little further into that because the resolution of the labor situation and how rookies are paid could have a huge and direct impact on the Carolina Panthers, who hold the No. 1 pick in the draft.

Under the old system, that pick likely would make somewhere around $50 million in guaranteed money. According to figures obtained by ESPN.com, the past five No. 1 overall draft picks have received $180.8 million in guaranteed compensation before ever playing a down in the NFL. That’s an average of $36.169 million per player.

Last year’s top draft pick, St. Louis quarterback Sam Bradford, got $50 million guaranteed in his contract. Matthew Stafford, the top pick in 2009, was given a deal with $41.7 million in guaranteed money. Miami’s Jake Long got $30 million guaranteed when he was taken in 2008. Oakland’s JaMarcus Russell, one of the biggest busts in recent years, was given $32.019 million in 2007 and 2006 top pick Mario Williams got $27.125 million in guaranteed money.

Much of the pre-draft speculation has Carolina taking a quarterback at No. 1, and Auburn’s Cam Newton and Missouri’s Blaine Gabbert are the names that have come up most often. But drafting a quarterback early doesn’t always mean success, although it has meant big money.

The last 15 quarterbacks selected in the top 10 (going back to Michael Vick in 2001) have had contracts that guaranteed them more than $367 million. That’s an average of $24.474 million per player, and only six of those 15 quarterbacks have been selected to a Pro Bowl.

Here’s a list of those quarterbacks that includes their draft year, team and guaranteed money.

• 2010 Sam Bradford, Rams, $50 million
• 2009 Matthew Stafford, Lions, $41.7 million
• 2009 Mark Sanchez, Jets, $28 million
• 2008 Matt Ryan, Falcons, $34.75 million
• 2007 JaMarcus Russell, Raiders, $32.019 million
• 2006 Vince Young, Titans, $30.115 million
• 2006 Matt Leinart, Cardinals, $12.91 million
• 2005 Alex Smith, 49ers, $24 million
• 2004 Eli Manning, Giants, $24.034 million
• 2004 Philip Rivers, Chargers, $17.955 million
• 2003 Carson Palmer, Bengals $15.08 million
• 2003 Byron Leftwich, Jaguars, $12.282 million
• 2002 David Carr, Texans, $15.04 million
• 2002 Joey Harrington, Lions, $13.925 million
• 2001 Michael Vick, Falcons, $15.3 million

» NFC Draft Watch: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Each Thursday leading up to the NFL draft (April 28-30), the ESPN.com NFL blog network will take a division-by-division look at key aspects of the draft. Today’s topic: history in that spot.

Carolina Panthers

The Panthers’ top pick is No. 1 overall. Here are the last seven players taken in that spot, with their NFL team in parentheses:

2010 QB Sam Bradford (Rams)

2009: QB Matthew Stafford (Lions)

2008: OT Jake Long (Dolphins)

2007: QB JaMarcus Russell (Raiders)

2006: DE Mario Williams (Texans)

2005: QB Alex Smith (49ers)

2004: QB Eli Manning (Giants via Chargers)

Analysis: It’s still early, but indications are the Panthers are seriously considering taking a quarterback, and that probably narrows it down to Auburn’s Cam Newton and Missouri’s Blaine Gabbert. Part of the reason the Panthers are looking down this road is because they saw what the Rams got in Bradford last year. The early results from Bradford and Stafford have been encouraging. But Russell was a tremendous flop, and Smith hasn’t been much better. Manning is the only quarterback taken No. 1 overall in this time period to make a Pro Bowl. Even before Manning, the history of quarterbacks at No. 1 was shaky for a long time. Carson Palmer and Michael Vick have had some good years and some bad ones. David Carr and Tim Couch rank right up there with Russell. To find a quarterback drafted first overall who has been an unquestioned success, you have to go all the way back to Peyton Manning in 1998, and there were some people at the time who thought Ryan Leaf could be just as good. Long story short: there might not be such a thing as a surefire quarterback, even with the No. 1 pick.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers’ top pick is No. 20 overall. Here are the last seven players taken in that spot, with their NFL team in parentheses:

2010: CB Kareem Jackson (Texans)

2009: TE Brandon Pettigrew (Lions)

2008: CB Aqib Talib (Buccaneers)

2007: CB Aaron Ross (Giants)

2006: DE Tamba Hali (Chiefs)

2005: DE Marcus Spears (Cowboys)

2004: DE Kenechi Udeze (Vikings)

Analysis: The Bucs have been in this territory recently and have had tremendous results and one very big complication. The Bucs were at No. 19 heading into the 2009 draft, which was the first for general manager Mark Dominik and coach Raheem Morris. They feared missing out on a chance to get the guy they believed would be their franchise quarterback. That’s why they traded up to No. 17 and took Josh Freeman. You can’t question that move because Freeman single-handedly turned the franchise around last season. Even taking Talib at No. 20 -- and it should be pointed out that move was made by former general manager Bruce Allen and coach Jon Gruden -- brought some positive results. When on the field, Talib showed flashes of being one of the best young cover corners in the game. But the latest in a series of off-field troubles means Talib is probably on his way out of Tampa Bay. The lesson to be learned here is that you can get big-time talent in the draft but it’s wise to do your homework on the character and attitudes of players. It’s common knowledge the Bucs desperately need a defensive end. Look at Hali and Spears. They represent two ends of the spectrum. Hali came with some questions about being undersized but had no character issues, and he has turned out to be a solid pass-rusher. Spears came with some questions about attitude and never has panned out.

New Orleans Saints

The Saints’ top pick is No. 24 overall. Here are the last seven players taken in that spot, with their NFL team in parentheses:

2010: WR Dez Bryant (Cowboys)

2009: DT Peria Jerry (Falcons)

2008: RB Chris Johnson (Titans)

2007: DB Brandon Meriweather (Patriots)

2006: CB Johnathan Joseph (Bengals)

2005: QB Aaron Rodgers (Packers)

2004: RB Steven Jackson (Rams)

Analysis: Johnson, Rodgers and Jackson are proof that you can get a big-time player this late in the round. The Saints aren’t looking for a quarterback because they have Drew Brees. But running back isn’t out of the realm of possibility, and when you see that guys such as Johnson and Jackson have been available at this spot, it makes you wonder about the Saints taking a shot if Alabama’s Mark Ingram is there. Yes, defensive end and outside linebacker might be greater needs, so those positions are possibilities. Pierre Thomas re-signed, Reggie Bush is expected to stay and Chris Ivory is recovering from injury, but the Saints still have to think back to the end of last year when they basically ran out of running backs.

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons’ top pick is No. 27 overall. Here are the last seven players taken in that spot, with their NFL team in parentheses:

2010: CB Devin McCourty (Patriots)

2009: RB Donald Brown (Colts)

2008: CB Antoine Cason (Cardinals)

2007: WR Robert Meachem (Saints)

2006: RB DeAngelo Williams (Panthers)

2005: WR Roddy White (Falcons)

2004: OLB/DE Jason Babin (Texans)

Analysis: Although nearly every draft guru is projecting that the Falcons will take a defensive end, it’s not out of the question that a wide receiver or running back could be the pick here. General manager Thomas Dimitroff and coach Mike Smith have talked a lot about wanting to add explosive players. If they look at their own history and the recent history of NFC South teams that have been in this spot, the idea of going with a receiver or running back could get stronger. Although it took some time for him to develop, White has turned into one of the game’s top receivers. Meachem also took some time and dealt with some injuries, but he has emerged as a force in the New Orleans passing game. Williams had some explosiveness as soon as he joined the Panthers.

I said last week the Carolina Panthers need to take Auburn quarterback Cam Newton with the first overall pick in the upcoming draft. I also said there are pretty good indications the Panthers are at least giving very serious thought to using the pick on Newton or Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert.

Nothing’s changed in my eyes and my ears tell me nothing’s changed in how the Panthers are thinking.

But as I was working ahead on our weekly Draft Watch post, I realized something that adds even more reason for the Panthers to go ahead and draft a quarterback. I thought about the rest of the NFC South.

What’s the first thing New Orleans coach Sean Payton, Atlanta coach Mike Smith and Tampa Bay coach Raheem Morris did when they were hired? The methods varied and they each had some help from their general manager, but Payton, Smith and Morris went out and got a franchise quarterback.

You can’t argue with the results. Payton won a Super Bowl title, Smith has had three straight winning seasons and Morris took the Bucs from 3-13 to 10-6 last season.

You know Payton got Drew Brees, Smith brought in Matt Ryan and Morris found Josh Freeman. But what you might not realize is how specifically each of those three coaches targeted each of those three guys.

Coming into New Orleans the season after Hurricane Katrina, Payton decided quickly he wasn’t going to go draft Matt Leinart. In his book “Home Team,’’ Payton describes at length how he and general manager Mickey Loomis saw a rare opportunity to get an established franchise quarterback. The San Diego Chargers were letting Brees walk into free agency because they had Philip Rivers and Brees was coming off major shoulder surgery.

In his book, Payton wrote that the Saints were competing with the Miami Dolphins for Brees. Payton and Loomis decided they had to “overpay’’ to get Brees to avoid the comforts of Miami and come to a city and a franchise that was in a total rebuilding mode. The Saints jacked up their offer, got Brees and it turned out to be the best move in franchise history.

When Smith took over, the Falcons had needs just about everywhere. But Smith and Dimitroff realized you might as well start building a program with a quarterback and they took Ryan with the third overall pick, after spending some nervous nights worrying the Dolphins and Rams might botch their plans. But Miami and St. Louis passed on Ryan and Atlanta’s been winning ever since.

It was basically the same thing in Tampa Bay. Although fans and media were screaming for defense, mainly because that’s what the Bucs had trained people to do since the franchise started, general manager Mark Dominik and Morris decided they had to get a quarterback. There are some, mainly Doug Williams, who will tell you the Bucs wanted Mark Sanchez. But Dominik and Morris have said all along Freeman was the guy they wanted. In fact, they initially were slated to draft at No. 19. But, fearing someone would jump into the No. 18 spot to get Freeman, the Bucs moved up to No. 17 and got their quarterback.

New Carolina coach Ron Rivera comes from a defensive background. But, in his hiring process, it was established the organization now realizes the NFL is a quarterback-driven league. General manager Marty Hurney is fully committed to giving Rivera the kind of quarterback he needs to win.

Could there be someone like Brees out there if the lockout ends and free agency and trades are allowed? It’s not real likely. The names you hear might be available are guys like Donovan McNabb, Carson Palmer, Vince Young and Kevin Kolb. McNabb was a franchise quarterback for a long time, but he’s on the downside of his career. Palmer might have briefly been a franchise quarterback, but his career has regressed. Young was drafted to be a franchise quarterback, but hasn’t come close. Kolb’s basically a career backup with some upside, but it’s a stretch to envision him as a franchise quarterback.

More and more I think Hurney and Rivera need to do what the other three franchises did when their current regimes started. They need to go out and get a franchise quarterback and it’s looking like the draft is the only spot to do that this year.

I still have lots of leftover stuff from the NFL owners meeting in New Orleans in March, so let’s grab onto another chunk of it right now.

The Atlanta Falcons have been very quiet this offseason. The lockout has kept them from making any transactions and their players haven’t been in any trouble (see Aqib Talib in Tampa Bay). Perhaps the biggest move so far in Atlanta has been the hiring of quarterbacks coach Bob Bratkowski.

Bill Musgrave had been in that position through Matt Ryan’s entire tenure in the league. Along with offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey, Musgrave widely was credited with Ryan’s rapid development. But Musgrave left after this past season to become offensive coordinator in Minnesota.

The Falcons quickly went out and hired Bratkowski, who recently had been fired by Cincinnati after serving as offensive coordinator there from 2001 through last season. Bratkowski is the son of former University of Georgia quarterback Zeke Bratkowski, but that has nothing to do with why he got the job.

Much of Bratkowski’s time in Cincinnati was spent working with Carson Palmer, who had some good seasons, but also had his career interrupted by injury. Bratkowski’s offense with the Bengals was fairly similar to what the Falcons run and Ryan, like Palmer, is mostly a pocket passer.

Bratkowski also had stints as an assistant coach in Pittsburgh and Seattle, after starting his coaching career on the college level. He did a stint as Seattle’s offensive coordinator. At the owners meeting, I asked coach Mike Smith about the hiring of Bratkowski and he said he expects the transition to be very smooth.

“Bob has worked with a very successful quarterback in this league and is highly respected,’’ Smith said. “He’s been an offensive coordinator for a number of years and a number of teams. I feel Bob is going to be a very solid addition to our coaching staff. He has a very good background in the passing game. His teams through the years have always been able to throw the football. We’re excited about integrating Bob into our coaching staff and our offensive system.”

There’s a little more to this and Smith didn’t get into that, but I will. There had been some thinking around the Falcons that Mularkey could be moving on to a head-coaching job and Musgrave was viewed as his logical heir apparent as coordinator. Mularkey drew some interest this offseason, but only interviewed for one job. He could be a candidate for another job after next season and it’s wise for the Falcons to have a guy like Bratkowski already in place.

He’s experienced as a quarterbacks coach and can be fine in that job. But he also could step up and be a coordinator again if Mularkey moves on.

With all due respect to the NCAA Basketball Tournament, the real March madness started Sunday.

It came when St. Paul Pioneer Press columnist Charley Walters threw out this line near the bottom of his column.

“Don't discount the possibility of Brett Favre, who turns 42 in October, returning next season, but not with the Vikings. Maybe Carolina.’’

Yep, it’s time for one of the rites of spring – talk of yet another Favre comeback. I can't argue with Walters that there's a possibility Favre may play next spring. Recent history has shown us that’s a possibility.

But playing in Carolina?

Not happening. Here’s why: Even when a younger Favre was making his previous comebacks, the Panthers had no interest in him. They needed improvement at quarterback then and they need it now. Plus, the Panthers weren’t holding the No. 1 draft pick during any of the previous Favre comebacks.

They’re shoulders-deep in a youth movement right now and a grandfather at quarterback doesn’t fit the profile. The Panthers will either draft a quarterback (Cam Newton or Blaine Gabbert) or go out and trade for one or sign one as a free agent. When the lockout ends, guys like Carson Palmer, Kevin Kolb and Donovan McNabb could be available.

Those guys aren’t rookies, but they’re a lot younger than Favre. New coach Ron Rivera has a bit of a honeymoon period and doesn't need to do anything desperate. He and general manager Marty Hurney know this is the time to get a quarterback for the long term and they’re not looking to lure anyone out of retirement.