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Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Falcons in 2012.

Dream scenario (13-3): Let’s note right up front that that dream record would also include at least two postseason wins, which would be a first in the era of coach Mike Smith, general manager Thomas Dimitroff and Matt Ryan. In their time, the Falcons have played the days after Christmas exactly like they’re the days after Christmas. There’s been a huge letdown when January has rolled around.

That’s putting an enormous amount of pressure on the Falcons. But that might be a good thing. Smith has said postseason failures have caused him to rethink how he does a lot of things. There’s little doubt those failures played a role in the hiring of new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter and defensive coordinator Mike Nolan, moves that might get the Falcons over the hump.

There are a lot of scouts and coaches around the league who believe Ryan was held back by former offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey and the defense never established any sort of identity under Brian VanGorder. The Falcons can score with any team if Ryan is allowed (and has time) to throw the ball downfield to Roddy White and Julio Jones. Nolan is preaching about the need to be more aggressive on defense.

Nightmare scenario (8-8 or anything worse): Let’s face it: The only way the Falcons are a .500 (or worse) team is if they have several major injuries or a huge implosion. This is a team that is loaded with individual talent on both sides of the ball. Or so it seems.

When coordinators go, head coaches and key players tend to lose their insulation. If Koetter can’t get more out of Ryan than Mularkey did, the Falcons suddenly have a huge issue at quarterback. If Nolan can’t get guys like Ray Edwards and Dunta Robinson to do more than they did for VanGorder, then maybe it’s not all about the coordinators or offensive and defensive schemes.

Owner Arthur Blank has said Smith isn’t on the hot seat, no matter what happens this season. But I think Smith is at least entering the same territory Tony Dungy once did in Tampa Bay. Smith is being labeled as a nice guy who can win a lot of games in the regular season but can’t win in January. If this team doesn’t win a playoff game, Smith officially is on the hot seat. If this team somehow fails to even make the playoffs, Blank might be forced to rethink his statement. This team is too talented not to win.

» NFC pressure points: West | North | South | East
» AFC pressure points: West | North | South | East

Examining who faces the most challenging season for the Atlanta Falcons and why.

From ownership through the front office and coaching staff and into every corner of the locker room, the Falcons firmly believe Matt Ryan has everything it takes to be an elite quarterback. He’s a natural leader, works as hard as anyone and has won a lot of games during his first four seasons.

The problem is that every one of those wins has come in the regular season. The lack of a single postseason victory has a lot of people on the outside doubting whether Ryan really is the long-term answer for Atlanta. If Ryan goes a fifth season without a playoff victory, some of that doubt may creep into the Falcons' own building.

There have been excuses -- most of them valid -- for Ryan's inability to win in the postseason. But those excuses are disappearing. The Falcons brought in Julio Jones last year to be a deep threat, and they’re overhauling their offensive line to give Ryan more time to find receivers down the field. They also have brought in new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter, who supposedly is installing a system that’s tailored to get the most out of Ryan’s ability.

The Falcons are going out of their way to give Ryan everything he needs to succeed. Now, with his current contract set to expire in 2013, it’s up to Ryan to take the next step. If he can win a playoff game, a contract extension is sure to follow and the doubts will disappear.

It’s back to business as usual after a little down time.

Before we start moving ahead, though, there were two events that happened while I was off that I’d like to weigh in on.

The Atlanta Falcons released veteran fullback Ovie Mughelli. The Falcons likely would have preferred to release him back before the start of free agency, but Mughelli still was recovering from a season-ending leg injury suffered last year. Once Mughelli was healthy enough to pass a physical, the Falcons went ahead and pulled the plug. They’re taking a bit of a leap of faith in hoping that rookie Bradie Ewing or Mike Cox can fill the void. Mughelli easily was the best fullback in the NFC South the past few seasons. But age was catching up to Mughelli. That’s something the Falcons have to be conscious of at multiple positions because they still have guys like defensive end John Abraham, center Todd McClure and tight end Tony Gonzalez. This team has to start mixing in some younger players and parting ways with Mughelli was one way to move in that direction.

Mughelli was a great lead blocker for Michael Turner, but I’ve got a feeling new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter isn’t going to be using the power running game quite as much as predecessor Mike Mularkey. Yes, Ewing or Cox will take on that role at times, but I think you’ll see more one-back sets as the Falcons try to get Jacquizz Rodgers on the field more often to take advantage of his speed.

I also wouldn’t be surprised if Koetter uses an H-back from time to time. From the moment the Falcons drafted receiver Kerry Meier, they have raved about his versatility. But we really haven’t seen much of Meier except on special teams. The Falcons are deep at receiver, so using an H-back from time to time could be one way to get Meier onto the field.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers suffered a big blow when defensive end Da'Quan Bowers tore his Achilles tendon in an offseason workout. Even though the length of the offseason program has been shortened and new rules are in place limiting how much contact players can have even during regular-season practices, this type of thing still will happen. Anytime you get athletes out on the field, there is the potential for injury.

This one hurts because the Bucs thought Bowers could develop into a full-time starter in his second season. Bowers has said he expects to return at some point this season, but that may be overly optimistic. Adrian Clayborn and Michael Bennett could form a decent starting tandem, but the Bucs have to hope that someone like George Johnson can step into the third spot in the rotation. Johnson will get his chance between now and roster cuts at the end of the preseason. If he impresses, he could have a spot in the rotation. If not, the Bucs will be looking hard at the waiver wire in late August and early September.

The other thing to ponder here is what the injury means for Bowers’ career. He had micro-fracture knee surgery prior to last year’s draft and that led to a lot of speculation that his career might only last about four years. If Bowers does miss the entire season and the speculation about his knee turns out to be correct, his career could be about half over.

Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan has only just started working with new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter in the team’s offensive program, but he already is seeing some differences.

Ryan said Koetter has kept a lot of the terminology the same and only about 20 percent of the playbook is new. But even a change of 20 percent can be a good thing.

“I think he brings a different perspective from (predecessor) Mike Mularkey over the last couple of years,’’ Ryan said. “Sometimes when things are explained in different ways to guys, it seeps in and guys learn better that way. Hopefully, Dirk will provide that for us. I think he will.”

Ryan has always praised Mularkey and that’s not going to change. But I think some subtle changes by Koetter might be a good thing and I hope he’s consulting with Ryan. The quarterback is at a stage in his career where he should have some input into the offense. If Koetter is smart, he would be wise to ask Ryan what he likes and dislikes doing. I’m not sure that ever really happened with Mularkey. Ryan arrived as a rookie and quickly adjusted to Mularkey’s offense.

But I’m not sure Mularkey’s offense ever fully adjusted to Ryan’s strengths. One thing that isn’t a Ryan strength is rolling out and it seemed like he was doing that far too often. I’d also be in favor of seeing a few more screen passes out of this offense. It’s not like I’m a huge fan of the screen pass, but the Falcons barely used it under Mularkey. I think some more screens can help open the way for more deep passes.

Ryan said the offense’s ultimate success is more about the players than the system.

“I think as a player you have to learn the system and scheme as best you can, but your primary focus has to be on execution,” Ryan said. “I think from a player perspective, our execution has to be better. It hasn’t been up to the standard that we need to be at and that’s what we’re going to work on this offseason.”

The NFL draft is two days way. In Atlanta, that means people are talking about last year’s draft.

That’s mostly because the Falcons are without a first-round pick after using it as part of a package to move up 21 spots to get receiver Julio Jones in last year’s draft. Atlanta doesn’t pick until the second round (No. 55 overall).

Lots of folks are moaning about the Jones trade now and talking about how it left the Falcons without a chance to get a player who can make an instant impact at left tackle or defensive end. I get those points.

I’d like to see the Falcons upgrade on Sam Baker at left tackle and I’d like to see them get a pass-rusher to go with John Abraham in this draft. None of that’s going to come in the first round and, even if the Falcons get a left tackle and a defensive end later in the draft, they won’t make an instant impact. But I’m not looking back regretfully at last year’s trade to get Jones.

If the Falcons hadn’t made the trade, they’d be picking No. 22 in this year’s draft.

Take a look at this mock draft done by the ESPN.com Blog Network on Monday and see if there is anybody who really excites you available at No. 22. I just did and I’m not seeing much. Georgia tackle Cordy Glenn went at No. 21 and some are projecting him as a guard. I’m a strong believer that you don’t take a guard in the first round and I’m not seeing any tackle I’d take in this scenario. I’d stick with Baker and add a guy who might be able to compete with him later in the draft or in free agency.

It’s kind of the same story at defensive end. Chandler Jones and Courtney Upshaw were taken after No. 22 and neither of those are guys who likely will make a huge instant impact. You can find a defensive end with as much potential in the second round.

The Falcons already got their impact player in this draft. It was Jones. Yeah, his rookie numbers weren’t off the charts, but they were very solid. Jones came up just a bit short of 1,000 receiving yards even though he missed three games with injuries. There were moments last season when Jones looked spectacular at a position where many rookies take several years to make a true impact.

I think Jones will only get better this year and new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter’s scheme will find more ways to get him the ball. Jones and Roddy White are close to being on even ground right now. As White ages, it’s only a matter of time before Jones becomes the true No. 1 receiver.

The Falcons got their impact player from this draft in last year’s draft. I gladly will take Jones over anything they could get at No. 22 in this year’s draft.

As we told you a little bit ago, a league source said the Atlanta Falcons have declined an opportunity to be the featured team on HBO’s “Hard Knocks" this summer.

Now, let’s delve into this a little deeper so we can understand why the Falcons made this decision.

First off, the Falcons explored the possibility of being the featured team very thoroughly. There was intrigue throughout their building and the franchise fully realized that appearing on the show during training camp could help greatly in raising the national profile of a franchise that hasn’t been all that successful until recent years. Virtually every department in the building was involved in discussions about whether the Falcons should accept the invitation.

This wasn’t an easy decision, and the Falcons did have serious interest. In the end, though, they declined. The decision should not be viewed as a knock on the show, the source said. The Falcons saw plenty of positives, but they ultimately decided it was in their best interest – and in the best interest of their fans – to turn it down.

The Falcons want all their focus for the 2012 season to be solely on the field. This makes plenty of sense. The Falcons are facing a critical season. They’ve had four straight winning seasons, but haven’t won a playoff game in that span. After losing to the New York Giants in a January playoff game, owner Arthur Blank, general manager Thomas Dimitroff and coach Mike Smith pledged to do everything in their power to get the team to the next level.

Instead of making a major splash in free agency, the Falcons chose mostly to retain their own players. There’s a strong belief in the building that new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter and defensive coordinator Mike Nolan will bring a change in schemes and attitude that could take the Falcons a step forward.

As intriguing as “Hard Knocks’’ was from a business and marketing standpoint, the decision ultimately came down to football. The Falcons didn’t want to put added pressure on Koetter and Nolan as they tried to install new schemes. Although the Falcons generally are a quiet team, they did recognize some potential dangers in opening all their doors to cameras for training camp. Receiver Roddy White can be outspoken and flamboyant at times and having cameras on him at all times could have presented the potential for controversy. There are a few other players on the roster that also could have brought some risk if the Falcons had decided to open things up.

In the end, the Falcons decided to go about their business quietly. I think that sends a pretty strong message. They’re focused totally on taking the next step and they want to do it by doing everything the right way on the football field. “Hard Knocks" might have brought them attention in the short term.

But the best and purest way the Falcons can enhance their national profile is going out and winning games, especially playoff games.

Time for a look at the top headlines around the division.

• Chris Mortenson reports that the NFL Players Association had knowledge of the tapes of former New Orleans defensive coordinator Gregg Williams’ now-infamous speech to his players the night prior to a playoff game with San Francisco before the recordings became public April 4. Filmmaker Sean Pamphilon, who released the tapes to the media, reportedly has been contacted multiple times by NFL security about providing the league with copies of the tapes. Gee, just a thought here, but shouldn’t Pamphilon have given tapes to the league before -- or at least at the same time -- they were given to the media?
• Some draft gurus are saying South Carolina cornerback Stephon Gilmore has emerged as a likely top-10 draft pick and that he’s the second-best cornerback in the draft. LSU’s Morris Claiborne likely will be the top cornerback in the draft and he could go at No. 5 to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. But it wouldn’t be that surprising if Gilmore goes No. 9 to the Carolina Panthers. They need depth at cornerback and Gilmore is from Rock Hill, S.C., which is located just over the border from Charlotte. Carolina owner Jerry Richardson traditionally has shown eagerness to bring in players from the Carolinas.
• The Falcons have talked in a lot of general terms about what new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter will bring to the offense. They’re not about to lay out specifics. But here’s some speculation that Atlanta could use the empty backfield more often, and it makes sense for a team that wants to have more of a downfield passing game.
• D. Orlando Ledbetter has the Falcons taking California offensive tackle Mitchell Schwartz in his mock draft. Makes sense. The Falcons at least want someone to compete with Sam Baker for the starting job at left tackle. But I think a defensive end also is a possibility for the Falcons, who don't pick until the second round (No. 55 overall).
• Carolina quarterback Cam Newton saw a statue of himself unveiled at Auburn University recently. Newton attended the ceremony and read a poem that he said he wrote for the occasion.
• The Saints don’t have a pick in this year’s draft until the third round. General manager Mickey Loomis said there is virtually no chance the team will try to trade up to get a pick in the first two rounds.
• Here’s an in-depth look, complete with legal analysis, at the bankruptcy filing by former Tampa Bay defensive tackle Warren Sapp.

Given the way Atlanta Falcons fans have reacted to what the team has done (or, more accurately, not done) this offseason, I was expecting Arthur Blank to pull out earmuffs as he reached into his pocket just before the start of an interview last week.

It didn’t happen. Instead, the owner of the Falcons pulled out a pair of sunglasses. This was a rare step outside during the NFL owners meetings in Palm Beach, Fla. He slipped on the shades, surveyed the Atlantic Ocean, sat down on a bench and started explaining, in great detail, the course his team has chosen.

Maybe this will, once and for all, stop all the screaming in Atlanta about how the Falcons didn’t pursue LB Mario Williams and didn’t really do much of anything in free agency. Blank has a detailed answer for that and, when you listen, it should all start to make sense.

There was a moment when I looked directly at Blank, but could have sworn I was seeing and hearing Gene Hackman. It was almost exactly like the scene in “Hoosiers," where the basketball coach played by Hackman firmly tells a referee “my team is on the court" after a player fouls out and the coach elects to go with four players instead of turning back to a player who had defied orders.

Blank has said, “My team is on the field."

Yeah, the marquee free-agent signings have been linebacker Lofa Tatupu and guard Vince Manuwai. And Atlanta fans aren’t exactly jumping up and down about the fact that the Falcons re-signed defensive end John Abraham and center Todd McClure; it wouldn’t have surprised anyone if they decided to retire. Throw in the re-signing of role players Thomas DeCoud, Jason Snelling and Harry Douglas, and it’s easy to see why a lot of Atlanta fans believe the Falcons haven’t done a single thing to get better after ending last season with an embarrassing playoff loss to the New York Giants.

But Blank has an explanation, so let’s hear it.

“I feel good about where we are,’’ Blank said. “I know we didn’t make a big splash going into free agency. But that really wasn’t our intention going into this year. We really felt we had a lot of talent. We were fortunate that we had the opportunity to bring in the two new coordinators and a few other coaches. At some point, it’s not even a matter of if the contents are correct. Sometimes, it’s a matter of who is delivering the message and whether the players are hearing it or not.’’

The man makes a good point. The 2011 Falcons team that went 10-6 (and didn't play with much consistency) was essentially the same team that went 13-3 and played with a great deal of consistency in 2010. The 2012 Falcons have largely the same roster as the previous two teams. In the eyes of Blank, general manager Thomas Dimitroff and coach Mike Smith, the problem last season and the reason this team hasn’t won a playoff game under the current administration isn’t about the roster.

Maybe the roster was just fine, but the coaching staff and the schemes were holding back the Falcons. Offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey left after the season to become head coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder left after the season to become the defensive coordinator at Auburn. Both men left on their own, but I get the impression that if they hadn’t, they might have been shown the door.

Let’s be honest here. Mularkey’s offensive system reached its peak in 2010 and didn’t get any better even with the addition of talented rookie receiver Julio Jones last season. VanGorder’s defense was solid but never dominant, which was a disappointment because the Falcons have some individual talent on defense. Mularkey has been replaced by Dirk Koetter, and VanGorder has been replaced by Mike Nolan.

“I love the selections that Smitty and Thomas made,’’ Blank said.

I get the sense that the days of QB Matt Ryan rolling out and almost always checking down are over. I get the sense that the days of sitting back in the Cover 2 are long gone.

“Dirk and I have had numerous discussions in terms of what our players are capable of doing,’’ Smith said during the meetings. “I think, first and foremost, you have to design your schemes toward what the players are capable of doing. We’ve spent a lot of time identifying the strengths and weakness of all our guys and what they do well and what they don’t do well, and we want to put together an offense that accentuates their strengths.’’

In other words, the Falcons aren’t going to be handing the ball to Michael Turner 300-plus times a season. They’re going to try to take some shots downfield with Jones and Roddy White, and they’re going to get versatile second-year running back Jacquizz Rodgers more involved in the offense. They also will try to put Ryan in a position where he can go from being a good quarterback to an elite one.

Smith said he’s had similar discussions with Nolan, the former head coach of the San Francisco 49ers who has had success as a defensive coordinator elsewhere. Nolan is noted for producing aggressive defenses. Some minor tweaks to attitude and scheme could provide an upgrade over the VanGorder units that never were able to establish any sort of identity.

Blank made quite a bit of noise after the loss to the Giants about how simply getting to the playoffs wasn’t good enough. He wants his team to win playoff games and contend for the Super Bowl.

That really hasn’t changed. But after the heat of the moment cooled a bit, Blank, Smith and Dimitroff sat back and realized they weren’t all that far from where they wanted to be. Early in his days as an owner, Blank was portrayed as hands-on and reactionary. I don’t think those descriptions really fit him anymore and I think he’s learned from his past. I think Blank is at a stage where he remains plugged in but trusts Smith and Dimitroff to make the football decisions.

“I went back and studied this over a long period of time in the NFL and studied the great teams,’’ Blank said. “Consistency is very important in terms of leadership with coaches and players. The great teams, what they have done is they’ve kept their head coaches for a longer period of time, kept their general managers for a longer period of time, and they identified early enough their core players and they extended them. The football staff has done a great job of identifying the players that can help us and keep them.’’

The salary cap also was a factor in the Falcons’ approach to the offseason. Pursuing Williams or some other big names in free agency would have meant sacrificing continuity. The only key player the Falcons lost was middle linebacker Curtis Lofton -- and that was a calculated loss. Lofton wanted a lot of money and Atlanta placed a limit on his value. If the Falcons had made just one or two big free-agency moves and kept Lofton, guys like Abraham, McClure, DeCoud, Douglas and Snelling wouldn’t be on the roster. The team would have had to cut other players to free up cap room. The Falcons could have made a splash, but it would have left them with all sorts of holes.

“What you have to look at is, this is not like baseball,’’ Blank said. “There are limits. This is real money and not monopoly money … one of the beauties in the NFL is that in July and August fans of every team think their team has a chance to go to the playoffs or to go to the Super Bowl and win it. The salary-cap system forces you to make some tough choices. Thomas and Smitty and their staffs made these choices because they believe they were the ones that will give us the biggest bang for the buck going forward. I certainly tested their logic and asked questions, but I think their plan was all very sound and well-formulated.’’

Like it or not, Blank is putting his team (the one chosen by Smith and Dimitroff) on the field this fall. You might not like it now and that’s fine with Blank. He thinks you’ll like it a lot more as the season goes along.

PALM BEACH, Fla. -- I got to spend some quality time with Atlanta Falcons coach Mike Smith at the owners meetings and I’ve got a bunch of different nuggets I’ll share with you over the coming days.

I’m not going in any particular order, but I’m going to start off with Jacquizz Rodgers. Most of you know I rarely make predictions and I’m not going to break tradition, especially when we’re only in March. But if you asked me which way I’m leaning right now as far as a breakout player or most-improved player for the division in 2012, I’d say Rodgers.

Part of it is based on what I saw out of Rodgers in a limited role last season. But I’m not a scout or a coach. My conversation with Smith about Rodgers is why I’m buying into this one. I could sense genuine excitement in Smith’s voice as he talked about the running back the Falcons drafted in the fifth round last season.

There’s another factor at work here. That’s Atlanta feature back Michael Turner. Smith already has said several times this offseason the Falcons want to limit Turner’s carries going forward. Smith said that again to me and I asked him how the Falcons will make up for those carries. He’s not going to hand me the playbook or his game plan, but I think his answer was fairly telling.

“Jacquizz figures into that quite a bit,’’ Smith said. “We drafted him to be a change-of-pace back and we found out very quickly that he’s a guy that is more than a change-of-pace back. Even though he’s short, he’s not little. He’s a guy we feel like we can integrate more into our offense.’’

I have little doubt that’s going to happen. Rodgers only carried 57 times for 205 yards last season and caught 21 passes for 188 yards. But -- rare fantasy football advice here -- those numbers are going to jump.

The Falcons found out Rodgers can run the ball better than they expected. They’ll run him more next season. They thought he could catch passes out of the backfield and he proved that. He’ll get even more chances.

Heck, with new coordinator Dirk Koetter and Rodgers, the Falcons might no longer be the NFL team that utilizes the screen pass the least.

PALM BEACH, Fla. -- Although there is no lockout this year, the three younger starting quarterbacks in the NFC South are facing some unique offseason hurdles.

Atlanta Falcons coach Mike Smith said Monday at the owners meetings he wishes quarterback Matt Ryan already was working with new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter. Prior to the lockout, offseason programs used to start in mid-March. But the collective-bargaining agreement signed last summer changed the rules for offseason programs.

Ryan and the Falcons can’t start their offseason program until April 16. It’s the same for the Carolina Panthers and second-year quarterback Cam Newton. At least Newton will be playing in the same offense he was in last season with coordinator Rob Chudzinski. But Newton had no offseason program last season and will face a shorter one than teams had in the past.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers' Josh Freeman catches a bit of a break because league rules allow teams with new coaches to start their offseason programs two weeks earlier than other teams. The Bucs have a new coach in Greg Schiano and Freeman will have to quickly digest a new offense with coordinator Mike Sullivan.

Although the New Orleans Saints face an uncertain future with coach Sean Payton scheduled to begin a suspension April 1, they should have an advantage in this area. They’ve got a veteran quarterback in Drew Brees, assuming he signs his franchise tender or agrees to a new contract before the offseason program starts. Payton built one of the league’s most prolific offenses and Brees has mastered it. No matter who is acting as head coach of the Saints, the offensive system isn't likely to change at all and the shortened offseason shouldn’t present as much of a challenge as it does for Ryan, Freeman and Newton.

The Atlanta Falcons began the process of overhauling their offensive line even before the start of free agency.

The team announced Friday night that it has signed guard Vince Manuwai. He becomes an instant candidate to start. The Falcons have Justin Blalock at one guard spot, but there was uncertainty on the right side last year as the Falcons experimented with Garrett Reynolds and Joe Hawley, but neither exceled.

Manuwai could have a big edge over Reynolds and Hawley because he has a history with new Atlanta offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter.

Manuwai was drafted by Jacksonville in 2003 and started 105 of 111 games between his rookie season and the end of the 2010 season. Manuwai was cut by the Jaguars last summer and spent the year away from football.

I heard a very interesting and lengthy interview with David Garrard while driving a bit earlier Tuesday on Sirius NFL Radio.

Garrard made it very clear he wants to play again next season after sitting out 2011. Garrard said he had back surgery to repair an injury that was holding him back when the Jaguars released him just before the start of last season. He said he’s almost 100 percent and his agent is making teams aware of his availability.

As you might expect, Garrard said his first preference would be to go to a team where he would at least have a chance to compete for a starting job. I don’t see that scenario as even a remote possibility in the NFC South. But Garrard also said he’d be open to being a backup/mentor.

In those roles, I could see him in the NFC South. Let’s throw out the Saints because they’ve got Drew Brees as their starter (assuming they finally get around to getting a new contract done) and they seem content with Chase Daniel as the backup. If the Saints do anything at quarterback this offseason, it might be using a late-round pick on a project-type quarterback to groom behind Brees.

But I can at least see scenarios where Garrard would make sense for the other three NFC South teams. Let’s start with Tampa Bay. The Bucs have Josh Freeman as their starter and view him as their franchise quarterback.

Backup Josh Johnson can become a free agent and I think he probably will test the market. Johnson’s athletic and the previous coaching staff sometimes used him in the wildcat formation (although not with a great deal of success). But Johnson’s not the kind of guy you want to see playing for an extended period if Freeman is injured. Garrard can be that guy because he’s got plenty of experience as a starter.

There’s also a school of thought that the Bucs might want to surround Freeman with an experienced backup that can help act as a mentor. Garrard or David Carr are guys I think could be possibilities if the Bucs go in that direction. New offensive coordinator Mike Sullivan worked as quarterbacks coach with Carr and the New York Giants the last two seasons. Sullivan also worked for the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2002 and ’03. Those were Garrard’s first two seasons in the NFL and Sullivan was a defensive assistant the first year, before switching to offense in 2003. But at least he has some familiarity with Garrard.

Speaking of familiarity with Garrard, that could be more of a factor with the other two NFC South teams.

Carolina quarterbacks coach Mike Shula was quarterbacks coach in Jacksonville from 2007 through 2010. Garrard’s best statistical seasons came in that span and all indications are he and Shula got along well. The Panthers are set with Cam Newton as their starter, but backup Derek Anderson is a free agent and Jimmy Clausen’s future with the team remains unclear. Garrard might be an upgrade over Anderson as a mentor and as a player.

Garrard also has ties to the Atlanta coaching staff. New offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter was Jacksonville’s offensive coordinator from 2007 through the end of last season. I’m not real sure if Garrard and Koetter parted on friendly terms, but I think the decision to dump Garrard was made mainly by former Jacksonville coach Jack Del Rio. If nothing else, Garrard should be pretty familiar with the concepts Koetter will try to add to Atlanta’s offense.

Atlanta veteran backup Chris Redman is scheduled to be a free agent and I don’t think the Falcons are ready to elevate John Parker Wilson to the No. 2 role. I think there will be some interest in bringing back Redman because his price tag won’t be high and he’s a good set of eyes and ears for Matt Ryan. But Redman’s not the kind of guy you want to play if Ryan goes down for an extended period of time.

If the Falcons are going to make a play for Garrard, a lot will depend on what Koetter thinks of the quarterback. Heck, even coach Mike Smith could have a weighty opinion on this one. Smith is familiar with Garrard because he was defensive coordinator in Jacksonville before taking over in Atlanta.

We covered a lot of ground in Friday’s NFC South chat. A lot of talk about the contract situation of Drew Brees, the draft and free agency. Let’s take a look at the highlights.

Kasy (Hattiesburg): Now that Tampa has its staff put together (besides qb coach), what grade would you give it? I know they aren't the biggest names but I think they have a good mix of experience and familiarity.

Pat Yasinskas: I'll go with a B or B-. I like the mix of college and NFL experience on the staff. Also like the fact that about half the staff has worked with Schiano previously. Think that will make the transition smoother.

Emmett (Hill Valley, CA): Any idea what is holding up Brees' contract talks?

Pat Yasinskas: I think it's just both sides going through the negotiating process and waiting for someone to blink. I have no doubt it will get done.

CC (Atlanta): Falcons seem willing to let Abe walk. Don't you think they'll go after Mario Williams? They have a ton of cap space and no 1st rounder.

Pat Yasinskas: Wouldn't surprise me a bit. They're always good for at least one big splash an offseason and that would be a big one. It also would fill a need.

Ben (Atlanta): Pat have you heard anything about the Panthers restructuring some contracts? I would think Steve Smith would be one of the candidates for that since his is up after this season and he is high against the cap total.

Pat Yasinskas: Nothing yet, but that generally comes right as we get close to start of free agency. Yes, I think Smith would be a candidate for an extension. He's got a cap figure over $10 million this year right now. Sign him to an extension for a few years and you can spread the cap hit out over the life of the contract.

Andy (hickory, nc): Pat, I hate when teams say they are going to " build through the draft ". I mean teams draft what, 7 players? Let’s say half become starters, with one becoming a stud, that’s not a lot to motivate a fan base with.

Pat Yasinskas: And building through free agency works? Ask the Eagles and Redskins about that. Now, I do agree you can't do it totally through the draft. There has to be a mix. I think Atlanta and New Orleans have done a nice job of that. Carolina too.

Robert(br,la) [via mobile]: Any chance saints lose Nicks due to Brees deal not being completed in a timely manner?

Pat Yasinskas: I doubt it. I suspect they'll get the Brees deal done and then turn attention to Nicks. If they have to use the tag on him, I think they will.

Steve Albarado (Ventura CA): Pat, huge fan of your blog. I check it daily. Do you think John Abraham would be good fit with New Orleans' defense? I know he's old and injury prone, but for the right price he might be a solid addition on passing downs. Thoughts?

Pat Yasinskas: Possible. Saints have history of bringing in vets for a year or two. They also need a pass rusher. But they're not going to have much cap room to work with and it sounds like Abe is looking for good money.

JJ (GA): Will Dirk Koetter improve Matt Ryan as a deep passer?

Pat Yasinskas: I think an improved offensive line would help Ryan more than anything.

Here’s the complete transcript of Friday’s NFC South chat.

An offseason of upheaval continues for the Atlanta Falcons.

Director of player personnel Les Snead is leaving to become general manager of the St. Louis Rams, several league sources confirmed to ESPN.com.

This comes after offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey left to become head coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars and defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder took a college job. Dirk Koetter has taken over as offensive coordinator and Mike Nolan as defensive coordinator. The Falcons also have made several other changes to their coaching staff.

While the departure of a front-office employee might not seem as big a deal as changes on the coaching staff, this particular case is a big deal. Snead carried lots of weight in the front office and was viewed as a key assistant to general manager Thomas Dimitroff.

This is an excellent hire by the Rams because Snead is an experienced talent evaluator who is more than ready for the next step. He should work well with new coach Jeff Fisher. But it’s also a big loss for the Falcons, and Dimitroff will have to adjust his staff.

Snead had been with the Falcons for 13 years and had worked his way up the scouting ladder to director of personnel.

Time for a look at some of the top headlines from around the NFC South.

New Orleans guard Carl Nicks says he would like to remain with the Saints. But the potential free agent is skeptical about the chances of that happening because quarterback Drew Brees, receiver Marques Colston, cornerback Tracy Porter and some others also are no longer under contract. There is virtually no doubt Brees will re-sign. But who else stays remains to be seen. Nicks seems to have his doubts, but I’m guessing he’s the next priority after Brees. Nicks is in his prime and might be the best guard in the league. He also is one of Brees’ main protectors. The Saints are going to invest huge money in Brees. I suspect they’ll be willing to invest huge money in protecting him, even if it means making Nicks the NFL’s best-paid guard.

Mark Cook takes a look at some potential candidates to become offensive coordinator for the Buccaneers. New coach Greg Schiano has yet to announce any staff hires and getting an offensive coordinator might be the most important move he’ll make. The Bucs need someone who can help quarterback Josh Freeman bounce back from a disappointing season.

The Buccaneers reportedly are talking to Pittsburgh defensive assistant Jerry Olsavsky about becoming their linebackers coach.

A stellar rookie season by Carolina quarterback Cam Newton is opening lots of doors. Newton has picked up another endorsement deal, this one with Gatorade.

Atlanta coach Mike Smith said the offensive playbook is nearly complete. The Falcons have new coordinator Dirk Koetter and I’m sure there are some new plays. But I don’t think the playbook has been completely overhauled. A lot of what previous coordinator Mike Mularkey did was because it was what Smith wanted and quite a bit of it worked. Koetter’s bright enough to know he doesn’t have to start from scratch. He just needs to make some tweaks to make the offense more consistent.

Charlie Campbell has his updated mock draft. He has the Bucs taking cornerback Morris Claiborne in the first round. Makes sense because we don’t know if veteran Ronde Barber will be returning and Aqib Talib faces a March trial on an assault charge. Campbell also has the Panthers taking Penn State defensive tackle Devon Still with the No. 8 or 9 pick (the exact spot will be determined by a coin flip). That also makes sense because the middle of the defensive line has been a problem spot for the Panthers in recent years. But I also could see Carolina using its first-round pick on a receiver or a cornerback.