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The title of a project on the division blogs this week is “Dream/Nightmare scenarios’’ for each NFL team. When I first received the instructions, I called my boss.

I asked about the possibility of taking it one step further. I asked if I could write about the nightmare of all nightmares.

Let’s be clear: It’s not something that I think will happen. But nightmares, after all, are supposed to be the worst thing you can concoct. And there’s one remotely possible scenario in the NFC South that would go way beyond the run-of-the-mill nightmare scenario I cooked up in the team post on the Saints.

What if quarterback Drew Brees doesn’t get a long-term deal and somehow ends up sitting out the entire 2012 season?

If you’re a New Orleans Saints fan, this is where your stage of sleep goes from just dozing off to the start of the worst nightmare ever. This is where all the good feeling Brees has brought to New Orleans since 2006, and especially since the start of the 2009 season, disappears. This is where the Saints go from being the elite team they’ve been the past few years back to the mediocrity that was their trademark through almost their entire previous existence. This is where Chase Daniel takes the first snap of the season at home against the Washington Redskins on Sept. 9 and starts through the regular-season finale Dec. 30 at home against Carolina.

This is the land of 8-8, or maybe even 6-10.

Unlikely? Highly. I still believe Brees will sign a long-term contract, straighten out what’s been a mess of an offseason for the Saints and carry the team to another postseason berth, no matter how many coaches and other players are suspended.

But with each day that passes without Brees having that long-term deal, Saints fans must start worrying a little bit more. Brees carries the franchise tag, and the deadline for him to finalize a long-term contract is July 16. If he doesn’t have a deal by then, he has only one option -- sign the franchise tag and play for a little more than $16 million this season.

Wait, there is actually a second option. Brees could just decide to sit out the season.

Public perception is that Brees never would do that because he’s such a competitor. I’m not here to rain on Brees’ public perception. My experience around him leads me to believe he is what he’s perceived to be -- and that’s not true of all the people I cover. Brees really is a fierce competitor.

But that’s part of the problem. It’s hard to say exactly what he would do if the deadline passed with no deal. At this point, Brees himself might not even know what he would do. But my impression of him leads me to believe there’s at least the possibility he could feel like he has been wronged by the Saints and could swing back as strongly as possible.

Brees has made it clear he despises the idea of playing without any long-term security, so maybe he just doesn’t play. That would be beyond disastrous for the franchise.

This team might have lost its mastermind when head coach Sean Payton was suspended, but I think the Saints could go on nicely with Brees around. If he’s not, this team loses its heart, soul and at least as many games (eight) as it did the past two seasons combined.

Take Brees away from the Saints and you have the Jacksonville Jaguars. Wait, at least the Jaguars have Blaine Gabbert. Yeah, he was terrible as a rookie, but there were at least some reasons why he was a first-round draft pick.

Daniel, who was undrafted in 2009, has completed only six passes in his NFL career. Some people like to say Daniel is the second coming of Brees. He's not. The only things Brees and Daniel have in common are that they’re short by NFL quarterback standards and know the Saints’ playbook. Brees is a once-in-a-lifetime talent. Daniel might look fine in preseason games when he’s plugged into Payton’s system. But start him over an entire regular season, especially one in which Payton isn’t around, and you’ll get a quick reminder of why teams generally avoid quarterbacks who are 6 feet or shorter.

Daniel doesn’t have Brees’ arm, experience in the offense or his magic. Yeah, I know there’s a school of thought that says you could throw any quarterback out there with the likes of Jimmy Graham, Darren Sproles, Marques Colston, Devery Henderson and Lance Moore and he’d do just fine.

I don’t buy it. Daniel could get the Saints through a game or two (maybe a little more if Payton were around) if Brees were banged up. Brees could get the Saints through a season without Payton.

But Payton’s not going to be around. If, somehow, Brees joins him, the Saints suddenly would become a team with a defense that might or might not be average, some good skill-position players on offense and no threat at quarterback.

That sounds like a formula for instant mediocrity -- and a huge nightmare for a franchise and a fan base that has gotten very used to winning big.

Trent Dilfer, Gary Horton, Mel Kiper Jr. and Matt Williamson got together and came up with an outstanding project that looks a few years down the road. Check out this Insider post in which they have NFL Future Power Rankings for all teams.

The rankings are based on what the panel projects teams will look like in the 2015 season. The panel used the following criteria -- roster, quarterback, draft, front office and coaching staff -- and weighed each in order of importance to come up with the rankings. You can see a more detailed explanation of the methodology here.

From an NFC South perspective, the rankings don’t look all that different from results in recent years or what most people are projecting in 2012.

The panel says the New Orleans Saints, who have won two of the past three division titles, will be the division’s best team in 2015. The panel notes the bounty scandal and its punishments, but the consensus seems to be that the Saints can overcome that because there’s a strong nucleus in place, as well as a good coaching staff and front office. Horton notes the Saints have to build around guys like Jimmy Graham and Mark Ingram in the future. I think it’s true that the Saints have to develop some more young stars in the next few years. But, as long as Drew Brees is the quarterback, the Saints should be a top-10 team.

After the Saints, there’s a bit of a surprise. Although the Saints and Falcons have been the class of the division in recent years, the panel doesn’t see that quite being the case in 2015. The Falcons are No. 13 and the Panthers are No. 12.

Let’s start with why the Panthers are viewed as a team on the rise. Dilfer sums it up well by saying quarterback Cam Newton has an incredibly high ceiling. In 2015, Newton will be just approaching that ceiling. There’s no doubt the future looks bright for Carolina, but the Panthers may have to replace longtime stars Jordan Gross and Steve Smith before too long.

I disagree with the panel slightly on the placement of the Falcons. I think Atlanta will be a top-10 team in 2015 and probably each year between now and then. I agree with the panel that the Falcons have some old players at several positions, but I think general manager Thomas Dimitroff gradually will address those issues. As long as Matt Ryan and Julio Jones stay healthy and linebacker Sean Weatherspoon continues to emerge as a defensive star, I think the Falcons will be an annual playoff contender.

The Buccaneers are No. 19. While that ranking is last in the division, the Bucs have been in the 20s and 30s in a lot of recent rankings. The panel sounds optimistic about the Bucs in discussing the young talent and the new coaching staff. But there are a lot of unknowns. If quarterback Josh Freeman can get his career back on track and coach Greg Schiano can make the transition from college to the NFL, I think the Bucs have a real chance to jump up in the rankings when 2015 actually rolls around.

John Clayton has his list of the NFL’s top 10 tight ends and the NFC South has some pretty strong representation.

New Orleans’ Jimmy Graham is No. 2 and Atlanta’s Tony Gonzalez is No. 7.

Gonzalez is getting near the end of his career, but still put up decent numbers last season with 80 catches for 875 yards and seven touchdowns. The Falcons have yet to find an heir apparent, so I think you can expect similar numbers from Gonzalez in 2012. Clayton’s list is based on the present, but I think you could make a case from the past that Gonzalez is the best tight end ever. He holds virtually every career receiving record for tight ends.

Graham’s got a long way to go to catch Gonzalez. But Graham at least has the potential to become one of the best tight ends in NFL history.

The former college basketball player has played only two seasons in the NFL. But Graham had one of the most productive seasons in NFL history last year, when he had 99 catches for 1,310 yards and 11 touchdowns. That came in Graham’s first full season as a starter, so he should continue to improve.

Now, that the NFL draft is over, let’s have some fun. Let’s start looking ahead to next season with team-by-team looks at what I project as the opening day lineups for each of the four NFC South teams.

Let’s start with the New Orleans Saints, who might not have any rookies open the season as starters because they didn’t have a draft pick until the third round. Also, let’s keep in mind that the Saints could be dealing with some suspensions from their bounty program. We won’t speculate on possible suspensions. We’ll just go with the depth chart as I see it now and I’ll throw in comments where there could be competition.

OFFENSE

• QB Drew Brees (assuming his contract situation gets straightened out)
• RB Pierre Thomas (you can also count Darren Sproles as a starter)
• FB Jed Collins
• WR Marques Colston
• WR Devery Henderson (Lance Moore will play as much as the starters)
• TE Jimmy Graham
• LT Jermon Bushrod
• LG Ben Grubbs
• C Brian de la Puente
• RG Jahri Evans
• RT Zach Strief

DEFENSE

• DE Will Smith
• DT Sedrick Ellis
• DT Brodrick Bunkley
• DE Cameron Jordan
• LB Curtis Lofton
• LB Jonathan Vilma (it remains to be seen if Vilma or Lofton will play in the middle)
• LB Scott Shanle
• CB Jabari Greer
• CB Patrick Robinson
• FS Malcolm Jenkins
• SS Roman Harper

SPECIALISTS

• K Garrett Hartley (assuming he wins training camp competition with John Kasay)
• P Thomas Morstead
• PR Darren Sproles
• KR Darren Sproles

» NFC draft analysis: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

The 2012 NFL draft won’t be remembered as the flashiest in NFC South history. That honor belongs to the 2011 draft -- probably forever.

It’s tough to top a draft in which quarterback Cam Newton went No. 1 to Carolina, Atlanta traded up for receiver Julio Jones and New Orleans traded back into the first round to get running back Mark Ingram. Aside from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' pretty good splash, this year’s NFC South draft wasn’t filled with drama.

Instead, it was filled with very deliberate picks that addressed big needs all around the division.

BEST MOVE

No pick set the division's tone for this draft better than Carolina's selection of Boston College linebacker Luke Kuechly at No. 9 overall.

There’s nothing really flashy about Kuechly, but the Panthers didn’t need flash this time around. They got that with Newton, and he gave them a prolific offense. But that offense was only enough to carry the Panthers to a 6-10 record last season. Carolina couldn’t play defense, and opponents have run all over the Panthers the last few seasons.

A lot of people thought the Panthers should go with a defensive tackle in the first round. But there were two reasons they didn’t. They weren’t enamored of any of the first-round prospects at that position. They also feel pretty good about what they already have at defensive tackle. Ron Edwards, a big free-agent pickup last year, is coming back from an injury that kept him out last season, and the Panthers think he can anchor their defensive line. They also used two third-round picks on defensive tackles Terrell McClain and Sione Fua last year.

The Panthers believe they have the personnel to clog up the middle. Kuechly should be able to come in and do what he does best. He can roam the field and be the kind of tackling machine he was in college. This guy had as few flaws as any player in the draft and is ready to make an instant impact. It remains to be seen whether Keuchly or Jon Beason will play the middle and which one will slide outside. It doesn’t really matter. Either way, the Panthers now have a deep linebacker corps that should be able to stop just about any running game.

RISKIEST MOVE

You could say the Saints made a risky move by using their first draft pick on a player who didn’t even play his college ball in the United States. They drafted Regina (Canada) defensive tackle Akiem Hicks with the No. 89 overall pick in the third round.

The fact Hicks didn’t play against elite completion means there is obvious risk with this pick. But why not take a shot when you’re this late in the third round? Hicks has tremendous upside, and he was good enough to be recruited to LSU before leaving for Canada. The Saints have a great history of discovering gems (Jimmy Graham, Jahri Evans and Marques Colston) later in the draft. They took a risk, but it might pay off.

Hicks should at least have a chance at some playing time early on. The Saints don’t have much behind Brodrick Bunkley and Sedrick Ellis at defensive tackle. Hicks could end up in the rotation very quickly, and the Saints could end up looking very smart for taking this risk.

MOST SURPRISING MOVE

The Bucs haven’t been exciting in any way in quite some time. But they provided virtually all of the excitement within the division in this draft. General manager Mark Dominik shrewdly made some trades that gave the Bucs the ammunition to move up twice and come out of the draft with three instant starters.

Get over the fact that Dominik used the No. 7 overall pick on a safety, Alabama’s Mark Barron. The Bucs weren’t sold on LSU cornerback Morris Claiborne for reasons we don’t know. They were sold on Barron, and safety might have been the weakest position on their roster heading into the draft. Trading down from No. 5 to No. 7 started a process in which Dominik was able to manipulate the draft with trades that gave him two other starters -- running back Doug Martin and outside linebacker Lavonte David.

The Bucs traded back into the first round to get Martin late Thursday night. They were without a second-round pick Friday night. But they saw David sitting there, they had the ammunition, and they pounced. No NFC South team needed more help from this draft than the Buccaneers, and Dominik made sure they got help that will matter right from the start.

FILE IT AWAY

Atlanta’s selection of Wisconsin fullback Bradie Ewing in the fifth round might not seem like a big deal on the surface. For now, Ewing is probably nothing more than a special-teams player. But the Falcons also were looking a year or two down the road when they made this pick. Veteran fullback Ovie Mughelli is coming off a major injury, and he’ll turn 32 in June. It was time to find someone to groom as Mughelli’s eventual successor.

As we get ready for the NFL draft to resume, let’s take a spin through some NFC South headlines.

— Great quote from NFL Network draft analyst Mike Mayock on Tampa Bay safety Mark Barron: “I love this kid because his floor and ceiling are the same thing. His ceiling is to be a Pro Bowl safety; his floor is to be a Pro Bowl safety. That’s how good this young man is.’’ I’m with Mayock on this one. I know a lot of Tampa Bay fans wanted cornerback Morris Claiborne and the Bucs did extensive homework on him. I don’t know what the knock against Claiborne was, but the Bucs had him rated below Barron. You’ve got to go with what all your scouting tells you.

— Barron and running back Doug Martin were introduced to the Tampa Bay media on Friday.

— D. Orlando Ledbetter throws out some names of offensive linemen that could be possibilities for the Falcons at No. 55. He mentions Cordy Glenn, Jonathan Martin, Bobby Massie, Mike Adams and Peter Konz as guys the Falcons might have to trade up to get in the second round. He lists Mitchell Schwartz and Amini Siatolu as guys who the Falcons can probably get if they stay put. I think there’s also a chance the Falcons go with a defensive lineman in the second round. By the way, even if you’re not interested in offensive or defensive linemen, click the link to check out Ledbetter’s photographic talents.

— New Orleans doesn’t have a pick until the third round, but Mike Triplett points to recent history to show the Saints still can get an impact player. They’ve landed Jimmy Graham, Jermon Bushrod, Carl Nicks and Jahri Evans after the first two rounds. All four of those players made the Pro Bowl for the Saints, although Nicks now is with Tampa Bay.

— One of the first people to call linebacker Luke Kuechly after he was selected by the Panthers on Thursday night was Carolina quarterback Cam Newton. Looks like Newton is making good on his pledge to attempt to be more of a leader.

As the New Orleans Saints and Drew Brees attempt to negotiate a long-term contract, there’s at least one guy in the organization who's not posturing.

In this radio interview, tight end Jimmy Graham said it’s critical for the quarterback to get signed quickly. The Saints began their offseason program Monday without Brees and Graham said the team needs its leader.

“I think it’s very important,’’ Graham said. “I can remember last year, during the lockout, other teams, they didn’t get together. Drew orchestrated and paid for a lot of the younger guys and even got me a place to stay and said, 'Jimmy, I want you here.' He paid that out of his own pocket for all of us to be here training together and we saw what that translated into and what that meant for [the team]. I’m not sure what’s going on or all the details but I just want him back as soon as possible."

He didn’t win a lot of games, but former Tampa Bay coach Raheem Morris easily was the best quote among the four NFC South coaches.

In the media business, it’s always helpful when a guy is a good quote. New Tampa Bay coach Greg Schiano probably never will be as animated or open as Morris. But, early on, I’m sensing a lot of depth out of Schiano and that can be a good thing.

Take the case of Schiano being asked at the owners meetings last week why there aren’t a lot of great tight ends in college football and why the NFL seems to turn to former basketball players (see Jimmy Graham, Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates) to play tight end. Schiano provided some pretty strong insight into why so many potential tight ends opt to play basketball in their teen years.

“It’s AAU basketball,’’ Schiano said. “Guys who are 6-2 as ninth-graders and have an opportunity to go to Las Vegas on a weekend trip, an opportunity to go to California or Florida in a basketball tournament, get a nice pair of shoes, a sweatsuit, and then they stop growing and there’s not a lot of 6-foot-3 power forwards. That’s the kind of athletes you need to play tight end. That was the hardest position to recruit in college. You had to project. Quite frankly, it’s the hardest position in this league to find. With the special guys, you can work mismatches.’’

In Tampa Bay, Schiano has Kellen Winslow as his top tight end. Winslow comes from a unique background. He’s the son of former NFL great Kellen Winslow Sr. and was schooled in football from an early age. At 6-4, Winslow has good size and his athleticism, at times, appears to match that of any of the former basketball players. There’s been some speculation the Bucs could look to trade Winslow, who will turn 29 in July, has chronic knee problems and is coming off a relatively quiet 2011 season. Some of the speculation also has pointed to the fact that new offensive coordinator Mike Sullivan is coming from the New York Giants, who didn’t throw to their tight ends a lot last season.

But I’m not so sure Winslow is on the trading block. Butch Davis, a special assistant to Schiano, recruited Winslow when he was head coach at the University of Miami. Davis also drafted Winslow when he was the head coach of the Cleveland Browns. Schiano and Davis have access to all the medical reports on Winslow’s knee. They may try to add some tight end depth in the draft. But I think they realize they have a tight end that has been a productive pass-catcher in the draft. Unless they’ve got their eye on some former basketball player and somehow plan to use their tight ends the same way New Orleans uses Graham, I expect they’ll stick with Winslow.

There’s a lot of talk out there about how Atlanta free agent Curtis Lofton isn’t a three-down linebacker. At the very least, it’s coming from fans and media members. It also might be coming from teams, as Lofton has been making the rounds, but has yet to sign with anyone.

Maybe new Atlanta defensive coordinator Mike Nolan doesn’t view Lofton as a guy he wants on the field on passing downs, and maybe that’s why the middle linebacker was allowed to test free agency in the first place. Maybe other teams are buying into the same theory, and maybe that’s why Lofton hasn’t gotten a big contract.

But I’m wondering if this knock on Lofton is fair and accurate. As far as being fair, I’ll admit Lofton isn’t the best cover guy in the league. But I also don’t think he’s a total liability, unless you put him into one-on-one coverage against someone like New Orleans tight end Jimmy Graham. There are a lot of linebackers that struggle with Graham, and that’s why more and more teams are using defensive backs to cover tight ends. In my eyes, Lofton is average (maybe slightly below average) as a cover guy for a middle linebacker.

That’s why I’m wondering how the perception suddenly became that he’s horrible in coverage. The numbers say Lofton was good enough to be a three-down linebacker for the Falcons the past three seasons. The numbers say he was good enough to be on the field for more than 95 percent of Atlanta’s defensive snaps each of the past three seasons.

I went back and looked them up. Lofton played 99 percent (986 of 996) of Atlanta’s defensive snaps last season. In 2010, Lofton was on the field for 933 of Atlanta’s 977 defensive snaps (95.5 percent). In 2009, Lofton participated in 986 of 1,034 defensive snaps (95.4 percent). The only season he wasn’t a three-down linebacker was 2008. That’s when Lofton was a rookie, and the Falcons also had Keith Brooking and Michael Boley. That season, Lofton played in just 55.6 percent (573 of 1,030) of the defensive snaps. But, after that season, Boley and Brooking were gone, and Lofton was elevated to full-time status.

Whatever Lofton lacks in coverage skills, I think he makes up for with his ability as a run-stuffer and a leader. Maybe he doesn’t deserve to be paid like a top-five linebacker. But I think Lofton is a linebacker who can be on the field most of the time.

The Saints had him in for a visit Monday, and the Buccaneers are keeping an eye on Lofton’s situation (mainly to see if his asking price drops). The Falcons already have moved on by signing Lofa Tatupu, and they have second-year pro Akeem Dent.

But the Saints seem to be looking for someone to replace Jonathan Vilma, and the Bucs aren’t sure if they’re keeping Mason Foster in the middle or moving him to the outside. I say one of these two teams should take a shot on Lofton. He’s an upgrade over what the Saints and Bucs currently have in the middle.

For that matter, I also think Lofton is better than what the Falcons currently are planning on going with at middle linebacker. Maybe an Atlanta return remains a possibility, if Lofton's price tag falls far enough.

The man who made the New Orleans Saints could end up breaking them.

Drew Brees arrived in 2006 as the Saints and the city of New Orleans were still dealing with the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. He brought instant credibility, an explosive brand of offense and sustained success for a franchise that had been hapless through most of its existence. He also played a vital role in rebuilding New Orleans and the Gulf South region.

Now, the price tag on all that is coming due. Brees is scheduled to become a free agent on March 13. He and the Saints are negotiating, but reports indicate the two sides remain far apart. That in itself is a little unbelievable because the parameters of this deal are obvious. Brees deserves to be the highest-paid player in NFL history.

He’s coming off a year in which he set the NFL record for passing yards in a season (5,476), and he should get at least as much as Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, who average $18 million per year.

I have no doubt that, when all is said and done, Brees will remain with the Saints. If negotiations on a long-term deal continue to fail, the Saints will simply put the franchise tag on their franchise quarterback.

But, either way, this is when we could begin to see the beginning of the end of the Saints as we know them.

They’re not going to be the same team they were last season when they went 13-3. They might not even be the same team they were in 2010 when they went 11-5. And they certainly aren’t going to be the same team they were in the magical 2009 season when they won the Super Bowl.

They’ll have the same quarterback, and that’s a great start. But the economics of his contract mean the Saints aren’t going to have the same quality of players at a lot of other positions. That’s not Brees’ fault, or the team’s fault. It’s simply reality in the modern NFL.

By the time next season rolls around and everything has shaken out, the Saints could be taking several steps back. They’ll still have a high-powered offense because they’ll have Brees, Darren Sproles and Jimmy Graham, but that offense might not be quite the machine it’s been the past few seasons. That’s because some parts are going to be gone and they can’t truly be replaced.

On defense, which wasn’t an area of strength to begin with, the Saints have a new coordinator, Steve Spagnuolo, who needs new pieces to execute his scheme. He’s not going to be able to get all he needs -- at least not this offseason.

So you’re looking at an offense that probably will be a notch or two below what it’s been in recent seasons. And you’re looking at a defense that’s probably going to be far from dominant.

Gee, that sounds pretty much like the Saints were in 2007 and ’08. They scored a lot of points, but the offense wasn’t quite perfect. The defense was far below perfect. That added up to mediocre seasons that didn’t end in trips to the playoffs.

That could be what the Saints face in 2012.

We haven’t even seen the full fallout yet, but we can start looking ahead and, no matter how you slice it, it’s tough to paint a pretty picture.

Brees isn’t the only big-name free agent the Saints have, but he’s the only one they’re absolutely sure to keep. The same can’t be said for guard Carl Nicks and wide receiver Marques Colston. It definitely can’t be said for receiver Robert Meachem and cornerback Tracy Porter, who aren’t on the Nicks/Colston level have been valuable contributors.

At absolute best, the Saints will be able to sign Brees and then place the franchise tag on either Nicks or Colston. At worst, they use the franchise tag on Brees, while Colston and Nicks both walk.

You don’t replace Nicks. He’s the best guard in the NFL and he may be just hitting his prime. Although the Saints have another very good guard in Jahri Evans, they no longer would have the unquestioned best guard tandem in the NFL.

Without Nicks, Brees would lose his best protector. Any quarterback, even Brees, isn’t quite as good when he’s getting pressured (think back to last season’s stunning loss to St. Louis).

Colston probably isn't on his way to the Hall of Fame, but he’s been Brees’ favorite target since they joined forces in 2006. Colston has had 1,000-yard receiving seasons in five of his six years. He’s a big target who isn't afraid to go over the middle. Take him away and take Meachem away, and the Saints would still have Lance Moore, Devery Henderson and Adrian Arrington. Moore and Henderson are nice, experienced receivers, but they don’t do the things Colston does.

And when you’ve got no cap room to sign free agents and no first-round draft pick, where are you going to get a receiver who does anything close to what Colston does? And where are you going to get a guard who is anywhere near as good as Nicks?

So let’s subtract a few points a game from the Saints’ offense going forward. And we’re only just beginning to talk about a defense that could end up giving up more points than it has in recent seasons.

This defense isn’t loaded with talent and we soon could see subtraction by subtraction. This salary-cap jam almost certainly will force the Saints to let Porter walk. That’s not that big a deal. The Saints have a top-flight corner in Jabari Greer, and it’s pretty apparent they’ve been preparing for Porter’s eventual departure by drafting Patrick Robinson and Johnny Patrick in recent years.

But the cost of keeping Brees, and maybe Nicks or Colston, means it’s almost certain the Saints are going to have to trim some cap room by releasing some prominent defensive players or at least restructuring their contracts.

Middle linebacker Jonathan Vilma and defensive end Will Smith are likely the top two targets for that. Although both are aging and Vilma is coming off a knee injury, those two have been New Orleans’ defensive leaders throughout coach Sean Payton’s tenure. Take Vilma away from a group of linebackers that’s ordinary, and you’ve got a group of linebackers that’s less than ordinary. And you're without the next guy in the leadership chain after Brees.

Again, the Saints don’t have the currency (cap room or prime draft picks) to make major upgrades here. Take Smith away from a pass rush that hasn’t even been ordinary, and you’ve got the potential for huge problems.

Unlike predecessor Gregg Williams, whose defensive philosophy was to be opportunistic and create turnovers, Spagnuolo believes in playing more of a shutdown defense, and he likes to generate almost all of his pressure from the front four. With Smith, the Saints have one guy up front who can rush the passer. Without him, they won’t have any.

Good luck trying to find a guy in the middle rounds of the draft or a low-priced free agent who will step right in and give you double-digit sacks. Spagnuolo is a good coach and his hiring set off celebrations in New Orleans. But a coach is only as good as the players around him, and Spagnuolo is probably not going to have a great deal of defensive talent in his first year.

That could be the story of the Saints in 2012.

Keeping their quarterback would at least keep them competitive, but they won't take steps forward if their roster is wiped out and the cap situation keeps them from being rebuilt.

The NFC South is up in the latest installment of division-by-division top offseason needs by Football Outsiders.

Check out this Insider post by Mike Tanier, who elaborates on a lot of topics we’ve been talking about in recent weeks.

He discusses what Atlanta might do at left tackle, where Sam Baker could be on his way out. But the Falcons don’t have a first-round pick and the free-agent market isn’t likely to be loaded with elite left tackles.

Tanier also writes about how the Panthers need to improve their nickel package, but he also touches on another important point. The Carolina linebackers struggled in coverage against tight ends last season. That’s not a good thing when you play in a division with Jimmy Graham, Tony Gonzalez and Kellen Winslow. The Panthers will get middle linebacker Jon Beason back from injury, but they might be wise to add a speedy outside linebacker.

For the Saints, the big area of need is the front four of the defense. Steve Spagnuolo has replaced Gregg Williams as defensive coordinator and he likes to rely on his front four to generate most of the pass rush. The issue there is the Saints are going to have to make some personnel moves up front because defensive end Will Smith is their only proven pass-rusher.

When it comes to Tampa Bay, Tanier is not impressed with how new coach Greg Schiano, who is known for being very organized, has handled his transition to the NFL so far.

Let’s assume New Orleans general manager Mickey Loomis is able to work out a deal to re-sign quarterback Drew Brees. It will be complicated and expensive, but it’s also pretty much guaranteed to happen.

The Saints want it to happen, Brees wants it to happen and every Louisiana resident from Bogalusa to Lake Charles wants it to happen. Then, let’s assume that Loomis also is able to find a way to re-sign guard Carl Nicks and receiver Marques Colston. Those assumptions aren’t as solid as Brees re-signing because there are only so many ways to cut the pie that is the salary cap.

But, let’s just hypothetically say, Loomis, who has a pretty good track record, gets all three deals done. Aside from re-signing a few lower-level free agents, maybe bringing in a free agent or two and conducting a draft without a first-round pick, Loomis’ work would seem to be pretty much done. But that may not be the case.

The Saints have another potential contract situation percolating. As best I know, there haven’t been any threats or holdouts, but the Saints almost have to do something about the contract of tight end Jimmy Graham.

He remains under contract through 2013. Perhaps more than any other player in the NFL, Graham has outperformed his contract and that generally leads to a new deal.

In 2011, only his second year in the NFL, Graham had one of the best seasons ever by a tight end. He caught 99 passes for 1,310 yards and 11 touchdowns. He’s 25 and he’s only going to get better.

When you look at Graham’s production and potential, it’s easy to make a case he’s the NFL’s most underpaid tight end. Heck, he might be the most underpaid player in the NFL, period.

Graham’s still playing on his rookie contract, which was standard for the third-round pick he was in 2010. But he’s scheduled to make only $540,000 in 2012 and $575,000 in 2013.

Atlanta’s Tony Gonzalez signed a one-year extension at the end of the 2011 season that will pay him just about $7 million. Gonzalez might be the best tight ever. But Gonzalez also is on the downside of his career and I don’t think there’s any doubt Graham’s better at this point.

In 2011, the average tight end salary was $1.27 million and Graham’s far better than average. In terms of average per year, Graham ranked No. 33 in the NFL, according to contracts that were in effect for 2011. For context, Tampa Bay backup Luke Stocker ranked two spots ahead of Graham.

I think you can make a pretty strong case that Graham needs to jump up at least 30 spots to be paid what he’s worth. Again, I don’t think Graham’s threatening a holdout and he doesn’t seem like the kind of guy who would resort to that kind of tactic.

But Graham is obviously a core player for the Saints and he’s a guy they want to keep happy. Yeah, they could play hardball and make Graham play out his rookie contract. But that’s bound to create at least some resentment.

The guy has become one of the league’s two or three best tight ends. It doesn’t have to happen immediately. But, at some point, the Saints need to pay Graham like one of the league’s best tight ends.

As they near their 50^th year of existence, the New Orleans Saints finally have a legacy.

The arrival of coach Sean Payton and Drew Brees in 2006 has made the Saints one of the league’s top teams since, and they won the franchise’s first Super Bowl in the 2009 season. But the real cool thing is the recent success undoubtedly has helped people remember some of the bright spots of what had been a mostly inglorious franchise history.

The latest example of that came Saturday, as offensive tackle Willie Roaf was elected to the Pro Football Hall of Fame. This summer, Roaf joins linebacker Rickey Jackson, a 2010 inductee, as the only other player to spend the bulk of his career with the Saints in the Hall of Fame.

Roaf’s selection was more than deserved. In a 13-year career, he was an All-Pro seven times and a Pro Bowl selection 11 times. He also was selected to the All-Decade team for the 1990s and 2000s.

Roaf played for the Saints from 1993 through 2001, then went on to finish his career with the Kansas City Chiefs. His final season was 2005. There’s no doubt Kansas City fans are celebrating this one as well, but this is bigger for New Orleans because Roaf spent the bulk of his career there.

The Saints weren’t great during Roaf’s tenure. They won two NFC West titles (that’s the division they played in before the NFC South came into existence in 2002) but little else. That could have worked against Roaf, but it didn’t. His résumé was strong enough because he was viewed as one of the elite tackles of his era.

He and Jackson now represent the Saints in the Hall of Fame, even though this isn’t like baseball’s Hall of Fame, where an inductee has to choose which team’s cap he wants forever on his plaque.

Roaf did some time with Kansas City, and Jackson also played in San Francisco. But they’ll be viewed mostly as Saints, and that’s great for the franchise’s legacy.

There’s some pride from the old days now, and the legacy is only going to continue to grow with the success of the modern-era Saints. It’s a virtual certainty that Brees will join Jackson and Roaf five years after his retirement. And there could be more. Tight end Jimmy Graham is only in his second season, but he’s showing signs he can be an all-time great.

Guards Jahri Evans and Carl Nicks are generally viewed as the best in the league at their position. If they keep that going, they could also get there. If Payton continues to pile up wins and offensive records, he someday could be a candidate.

The Saints have built a legacy through the years, but Roaf’s selection takes it to another level, and there’s going to be plenty more to come.

Atlanta’s Tony Gonzalez might be the oldest tight end in the NFC South, but he also got way more playing time than anyone else at the position in 2011.

Gonzalez, who will turn 36 in February, played more snaps than all of the younger tight ends in a division that suddenly has become known for its tight ends.

Gonzalez was on the field for 952 of Atlanta’s 1,157 offensive snaps. That’s 84.5 percent and it was good enough to rank Gonzalez No. 10 among all NFL tight ends. Dallas’ Jason Witten took part in a league-high 99.2 percent of his team’s offensive snaps, but New England’s Rob Gronkowski led in total plays on the field (1,092) because the Patriots had more offensive plays than the Cowboys.

Gonzalez finished the season with 80 catches for 875 yards and seven touchdowns. Shortly before the season ended, Gonzalez assured he will play at least one more season by agreeing to a one-year contract extension worth about $7 million.

In Sunday’s Pro Bowl, Gonzalez made a game-high seven catches for 114 yards. His receiving yards were the most for any tight end in the game.

Carolina’s Greg Olsen was the division’s second-most-used tight end during the regular season. Olsen was on the field for 866 of the Panthers’ 1,046 offensive snaps (82.8 percent and No. 12 in the NFL).

Tampa Bay’s Kellen Winslow participated in 822 of the Buccaneers’ 1,021 offensive snaps. That’s 80.5 percent and ranked No. 14 in the NFL.

Of the NFC South’s four regular starting tight ends, New Orleans’ Jimmy Graham took part in the fewest number of plays. Graham led all division tight ends with 99 catches for 1,310 yards and 11 touchdowns and was selected as the NFC’s starter in the Pro Bowl.

But the Saints use such a variety of offensive personnel that Graham’s time on the field was relatively limited. He took part in 798 of 1,152 offensive plays (69.3 percent and No. 24 in the NFL).

The Panthers used a combination of Olsen and Jeremy Shockey, who ended up taking part in 51.1 percent of Carolina’s plays.

Here’s a list of other NFC South backup tight ends and the percentage of playing time they got in 2011:

• Luke Stocker, Buccaneers, 34.1.
• John Gilmore, Saints, 28.6.
• Michael Palmer, Falcons, 23.6.
• Reggie Kelly, Falcons, 19.7.
• David Thomas, Saints, 12.6.
• Richie Brockel, Panthers, 11.8.
• Ben Hartsock, Panthers, 7.1.
• Zack Pianalto, Buccaneers, 6.3.
• Mike Higgins, Saints, 2.3.
• Collin Franklin, Buccaneers, 1.6.

Time for a Sunday look at the headlines from around the NFC South.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are getting some of the same treatment they used to give others when Bruce Allen was their general manager. The Arizona Cardinals refused to give the Bucs permission to talk to wide receivers coach John McNulty, who remains under contract. Presumably, the Bucs were interested in McNulty as the offensive coordinator for new coach Greg Schiano. The two worked together at Rutgers.

D. Orlando Ledbetter reports Miami assistant Joe Danna is the leading candidate to become Atlanta’s defensive backs coach. Alvin Reynolds was fired from that spot last week.

Although he’s having fun in Hawaii, Carolina quarterback Cam Newton said he doesn’t want to be at the Pro Bowl every year. He wants to be playing in Super Bowls.

Speaking of the Pro Bowl, it will air at 7 p.m. ET on Sunday. In addition to Newton, the other NFC South representatives are all offensive players -- New Orleans’ Drew Brees, Jimmy Graham, Carl Nicks, Jahri Evans and Jermon Bushrod, Carolina’s Steve Smith and Ryan Kalil, Atlanta’s Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez and Tampa Bay’s Davin Joseph. By the way, you might want to keep an eye on White’s verified Twitter account during the game. For the first time ever, the NFL will allow players to tweet during a game. If you’ve followed White on Twitter, you know he’s more than a Pro Bowler in that area. He’s a first-team All-Pro.

Keep an eye on our main NFL page for Pro Bowl coverage. If an NFC South player does anything out of the ordinary or there are injuries, I’ll weigh in on the blog.