NFC South: Jonathan Stewart

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Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Panthers in 2012.

Dream scenario (11-5): With the Saints dealing with turmoil and the Falcons facing enormous pressure, it’s at least possible that the two teams that have dominated the NFC South in recent years won’t win it in 2012. The Panthers are the next logical choice, and there are all sorts of reasons for optimism.

Coach Ron Rivera’s entering his second season and so is quarterback Cam Newton, who was the NFL's Offensive Rookie of the Year despite not having an offseason with his coaches and their playbook. Newton should only continue to improve, a scary thought for a guy who lit up defenses with his arm and his legs last season. He has Steve Smith still going strong, a backfield that includes Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams, and has added fullback/tailback Mike Tolbert.

There are far fewer questions about Carolina’s offense than there were a year ago. It’s obvious the Panthers are going to score some points on offense. But the defense will tell the story. If this team is going to make the playoffs, Jon Beason and Ron Edwards must make strong comebacks from injuries and rookie linebacker Luke Kuechly must make an instant impact.

Nightmare scenario (6-10): Anything less than last year’s 6-10 record would be a huge disappointment. Although I don’t think it’s likely, it’s at least possible that Newton will take a step back. If he does, then maybe Smith no longer looks so young and maybe that loaded backfield doesn’t look so good. Then there’s the matter of the defense that was so bad a year ago. A lot of people seem to assume the return of Beason and Edwards and the addition of Kuechly will solve everything. But maybe Beason and Edwards aren’t the players they were before their injuries, and maybe Kuechly doesn’t live up to his billing.

If all that happens, then the Panthers really aren’t going to be any different than they were the last couple of seasons.

Around the NFC South

May, 23, 2012
May 23
9:21
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Time for a look at the top headlines from around the division.

Jeff Schultz writes that the Saints still are playing the “victim card’’ by saying they’ve been “railroaded’’ in the bounty scandal. It’s a point worth pondering. Sure, the suspended players have a right to the appeals process. But, if the suspensions are upheld, there comes a time when the Saints have to start moving forward.

Commissioner Roger Goodell knows he’s not a favorite among New Orleans fans these days. But Goodell insisted he has to act in the best long-term interest of the game and isn't worried about popularity contests.

Goodell said he would encourage Atlanta to bid to host a Super Bowl if the city gets a new stadium in the future. There’s a perception out there that Atlanta never will get another Super Bowl because the city was crippled by an ice storm when it last hosted the game in 2000. That was a fluke. If Atlanta does get a new stadium, it almost certainly will get a Super Bowl within a few years. That’s pretty much how things work in the NFL these days -- build a new stadium and you get a Super Bowl.

Mike Tolbert thinks he can be “the missing piece’’ for the Carolina Panthers. Remember how that worked out after Ray Edwards said he’d be essentially the same thing for the Atlanta Falcons last year? Tolbert’s got a real chance to help the Panthers. They’re saying he was brought into play fullback and I’m sure he will. But Tolbert’s versatile and I think he’ll also get some playing time in a backfield that already includes DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. But Tolbert just needs to be one of many pieces for the Panthers. Their offense already is good, but they need a lot of pieces to emerge on defense.

Check out this column by Daniel Cox. It discusses the possibility of the NFC South being the NFL’s strongest division when it comes to quarterbacks. I think there’s a pretty strong case for that. Drew Brees has a great track record and Matt Ryan has a good one. If Cam Newton can build on his outstanding rookie season and Josh Freeman can get back to his 2010 form, I don’t think there’s any way any other division has as deep a crop of starting quarterbacks.

Tampa Bay backup quarterback Dan Orlovsky played a role in encouraging free-agent tight end Dallas Clark to sign with the Buccaneers. The two previously were teammates with the Indianapolis Colts.

Yet another difference between new Tampa Bay coach Greg Schiano and predecessor Raheem Morris. Instead of “beating the heat’’ the way Morris did by practicing early or practicing indoors at practice field, Schiano wants to embrace the Florida heat and use it to get his team in better physical condition.
While I was off last week, Matt Williamson did some pinch-hitting and ranked the NFC South backfield situations. He put the Carolina Panthers at No. 1.

No argument here at all. In fact, Williamson’s case just got a little bit stronger.

The Panthers claimed running back Armond Smith off waivers from Cleveland on Tuesday and waived defensive back Reggie Sullivan.

This might not seem like a big deal because Smith has all of three career carries. But think about Carolina’s coaching staff and think how the NFL is a copy-cat league. At least on paper, Smith, 5-foot-9 and 194 pounds, is only a slightly larger version of Darren Sproles. Refresher course time: Carolina offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski used to be an assistant in San Diego. Sproles used to be a pretty good running back in San Diego, before he went to New Orleans and became great last season.

Yeah, comparing Smith to Sproles is a big stretch at this point. But Chudzinski could be picturing Smith in some packages in which he would play a similar role to Sproles. Carolina already has a loaded backfield with Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams sharing the feature-back role and the Panthers added running back/fullback Mike Tolbert (another former San Diego player) this offseason.

That backfield could be even better if the Panthers sprinkled in a few carries and a few catches per game for a speed back like Smith.
The NFL draft is over and the Carolina Panthers have added at least one new starter.

That’s linebacker Luke Kuechly, who was drafted with the No. 9 overall pick. It just remains to be seen if he’ll start in the middle or on the outside.

Let’s take a look at Carolina’s projected depth chart as I see it at the moment.

OFFENSE
DEFENSE
  • MLB Jon Beason or Kuechly (one of them will move outside)
SPECIALISTS
  • P Brad Mortman (at least one rookie besides Kuechly will play a lot)
  • PR Joe Adams (the rookie also could get some time as the slot receiver)
We already showed you my assessment of how the NFC South teams have fared so far in free agency.

Now, let’s turn to another view. Check out this Insider post by Matt Williamson, who grades how every team has done in free agency. Overall, Williamson gave out pretty good grades to the NFC South teams.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers got an A-. They signed receiver Vincent Jackson, guard Carl Nicks and cornerback Eric Wright. Williamson slightly questions giving Wright so much money and says he wishes the Bucs had added a veteran leader or two. But those are about the only knocks anyone can come up with on what Tampa Bay has done.

Williamson gives the Saints a B, which I think is about right. They lost Nicks, receiver Robert Meachem and cornerback Tracy Porter. But I think they were expecting to lose all three after putting the franchise tag on quarterback Drew Brees and re-signing Marques Colston. Given the fact that he had almost no salary-cap room to work with, general manager Mickey Loomis did a pretty remarkable job in signing guard Ben Grubbs, linebacker Curtis Lofton and defensive tackle Brodrick Bunkley.

The Falcons graded out at a C+. That may seem a little high to fans who are angry that the Falcons really didn’t bring anything from outside. But Williamson is generous with his grade because he recognizes the importance of keeping your own players. The Falcons did a nice job of that. The only thing they really lost was Lofton. That is a loss, but the Falcons only wanted him back at the right price and they stayed behind the line they drew in the sand.

The only team that got a bad grade was the Carolina Panthers. They got a D, which tied them (with Arizona) for the lowest grade in the league. I think this one might be a little harsh. Yeah, I realize the Panthers didn’t do much in free agency. But the bright side is, they really didn’t lose anything. The signing of running back/fullback Mike Tolbert was a bit curious because Carolina already was loaded in the backfield. But I think we could end up seeing Jonathan Stewart or DeAngelo Williams getting traded. Even if the Panthers keep all their running backs, that’s not a bad thing. They don’t run the ball as much as they did back in the John Fox days. But look at how New Orleans, a pass-happy team, was able to work in four quality running backs last season.
Maybe we should slow down a bit on the speculation that the Carolina Panthers could look to trade either DeAngelo Williams or Jonathan Stewart.

Tolbert
Tolbert
I’ve been guilty of it, and still think it’s a possibility the Panthers could trade one of their top two running backs. But the Panthers are trying to quickly get the word out that the signing of Mike Tolbert doesn’t mean Williams or Stewart is on the trading block.

In their release officially announcing the signing, the Panthers referred to Tolbert as a fullback, even though he was a running back with San Diego. Throughout the release, there are references to Tolbert as a fullback.

“Mike is a very versatile player who can do a lot of different things for us,” general manager Marty Hurney said. “He plays fullback, catches the ball well out of the backfield, plays running back, and is an outstanding special-teams player. It was a good fit, and gives us a chance to add another weapon on offense. We are excited about bringing him back to the Carolinas.”

Tolbert played in college at Coastal Carolina. More importantly, he’s got fullback size at 243 pounds. The Carolina offense, under coordinator Rob Chudzinski, makes unique use of fullbacks and H-backs. Chudzinski was an assistant in San Diego before coming to Carolina, and knows Tolbert's skill set well. So, it’s possible Tolbert really is ticketed for fullback.

Even if he is, he still gives the Panthers another possibility at tailback if anything happens to Williams or Stewart.
Peyton Manning's joining the Denver Broncos might have a bigger impact than you realize on the NFC South.

Manning
That’s because all four NFC South teams will play the Broncos next season. There’s little doubt the Broncos are about to get a lot better in the passing game, and they already have a good defense. The move suddenly makes the Broncos and the entire AFC West better. With Denver and San Diego already pretty good and the possibility of Oakland and Kansas City improving, it’s pretty much a given that this isn’t going to be a repeat of 2010 when the NFC South was matched up with what was then a very weak NFC West. In that season, NFC South records got inflated (Tampa Bay went 10-6 and Atlanta was 13-3) in large part because they got some freebie wins against the NFC West.

We won’t know the schedule dates until April, but we already know where those games will be. New Orleans and Tampa Bay will have to play in Denver. We know the Saints aren’t always good in outdoor stadiums and their pass-happy offense could be slowed even more if the game is late in the season and the weather is rough. It’s kind of a similar story for Tampa Bay if its game in Denver is late in the season, because the Bucs historically have struggled in cold weather.

Perhaps the most intriguing matchup between Denver and the NFC South will come when John Fox returns to Bank of America Stadium to coach against his former team. By that time, Fox might not be the only familiar face returning to Charlotte. As I said before, I could see Fox trading with Carolina to get either DeAngelo Williams or Jonathan Stewart as a new toy for Manning out of the backfield. The Falcons also will play a home game against Denver, and I’m sure new defensive coordinator Mike Nolan is already thinking about some schemes to deal with Manning.
On the surface, Carolina’s signing of free-agent running back Mike Tolbert doesn’t seem like that big a deal.

The Panthers already have two good running backs in DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. It’s easy to look at this one and say, the Panthers simply are upgrading their No. 3 running back spot with Tolbert replacing Mike Goodson.

But I don’t think this is what that move is all about. Tolbert was brought in to be the No. 2 back behind either Williams or Stewart.

John Fox isn’t coaching the Panthers anymore, so the days of them collecting three or four backs and playing them extensively are over. Heck, there weren’t even enough carries to go around for Stewart and Williams last year, when coach Ron Rivera arrived and brought along offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski. Rivera and Chudzinski both previously worked in San Diego, where Tolbert spent the past four seasons.

He had the best year of his career in 2010, the last year Chudzinski and Rivera were with the Chargers. Tolbert’s the kind of back that can give you about 150 carries and catch 40 or 50 passes out of the backfield. He also can play special teams and is considered a good locker-room guy.

Williams and Stewart both were first-round picks by the Panthers and are highly regarded by the team. But it’s pretty obvious the Panthers just sent a message that either one could be available and other teams are going to start calling to inquire about trades.

It might be difficult to get a trade partner for Williams. The Panthers signed him to a huge contract last summer, which could scare off some suitors. But I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of the Panthers dealing Williams. Fox likes Williams a lot and could want a new toy for Peyton Manning in Denver. Some other team might be willing to take a shot on Williams.

But I think Stewart will be easier to trade (and Fox likes him too). He’s headed into the final year of his rookie contract and a team wouldn’t be taking on a huge deal. I’m thinking that between now and the draft, the Panthers will have added at least one draft pick and will be without either Stewart or Williams.

Around the NFC South

March, 19, 2012
Mar 19
10:27
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Time for a Monday morning run through the top headlines from around the NFC South.

— We’ve been hearing a lot of rumblings that we could find out the punishments for the New Orleans Saints for their role in the bounty program this week and that seems likely to remain true. We could hear something as soon as Monday. But here’s a little twist. Although we could hear of fines and potential lost draft picks for the Saints and suspensions for general manager Mickey Loomis and coach Sean Payton and former New Orleans defensive coordinator Gregg Williiams, there now is speculation we might not hear everything this week. There’s speculation that it could take longer to get news on player suspensions. More than 20 players were reportedly involved in the program and the league still could be figuring out the involvement of each or working on a way to stagger suspensions so the Saints aren’t sitting the majority of their defense at the same time.

— The Panthers have San Diego running back Mike Tolbert in for a visit and already have begun contract talks. Don’t be surprised if Tolbert signs with Carolina by the end of Monday. When the Panthers are serious about a free agent, their goal usually is to make sure he doesn’t leave the building before signing a contract.

What happens if the Panthers do sign Tolbert? There is speculation they could put incumbent running backs DeAngelo Williams or Jonathan Stewart on the trading block. I think the Panthers would have a hard time getting anything for Williams because teams would be hesitant to take on the huge contract he signed last summer. Stewart would be much more appealing in a trade. He’s entering the final year of his rookie contract that’s not nearly as big as Wiliams’ deal. The Panthers also might be wise to get something for Stewart now rather than losing him as a free agent next year.

— Although a civil lawsuit has been filed against Tampa Bay cornerback Aqib Talib following a traffic accident, no criminal charges were filed and no police report was written. Tampa police now are saying the lack of a police report is because the department changed its policy four years ago to save man hours and officers aren’t required to write reports on what they consider minor accidents. In a separate matter, Talib is scheduled to face trial on an assault charge in Texas next week. On that charge, he could face prison time and disciplinary action by the NFL or the team also is possible.

— Sad news out of Atlanta. Legendary Atlanta Journal-Constitution sports columnist Furman Bisher has died. He was 93. Bisher was a contemporary and close friend of my mentor, The Tampa Tribune’s Tom McEwen, who passed away last June. Like McEwen, Bisher played a big role in making what is now the NFC South important.

— New Orleans cornerback Tracy Porter continues to make the free-agent rounds. He’s expected to visit the Oakland Raiders in the next few days.
Only two NFC South running backs were on the field for more than 50 percent of their team’s offensive plays.

Carolina’s Jonathan Stewart led the division at 55.2 percent. Stewart was on the field for 577 of Carolina’s 1,046 offensive plays. Atlanta’s Michael Turner took part in 52.2 percent of his offense’s plays. Turner was on the field for 588 of 1,127 snaps.

Neither player was in the top 10 among the league’s running backs. Philadelphia’s LeSean McCoy led the league as he played on 81.1 percent of his team’s snaps.

There were a few other items of interest when it came to playing time for NFC South running backs. While Stewart led the division, his teammate, DeAngelo Williams, was third in the NFC South at 42.73 percent, just ahead of New Orleans’ Darren Sproles 42.71 percent.

Tampa Bay was the only team without a single running back to play at least 40 percent of his team’s snaps. Starter LeGarrette Blount participated in 38.4 of the Bucs’ snaps, which was a problem. The Bucs were hesitant to use Blount as a pass blocker or receiver, so their offense was predictable because Tampa Bay generally was running when Blount was on the field.

Blount’s backup, Kregg Lumpkin, was on the field for 35.9 percent of Tampa Bay’s snaps. Earnest Graham also split time at fullback and tailback for the Bucs before suffering a season-ending injury. Graham took part in 18.8 percent of Tampa Bay's offensive plays.

Here’s the rundown on the percentage of plays the rest of the NFC South running backs took part in:

Pierre Thomas, Saints, 33.8.

Jacquizz Rodgers, Falcons, 28.

Jason Snelling, Falcons, 27.9.

Mark Ingram, Saints, 18.6.

Chris Ivory, Saints, 10.4.

Mossis Madu, Buccaneers, 5.9.

Josh Vaughn, Panthers, 1.1.

Mike Goodson, Panthers, 0.4.

Antone Smith, Falcons 0.2

Saints racked up the YAC

January, 4, 2012
Jan 4
11:03
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New Orleans running back Darren Sproles narrowly missed out on leading the league in yards after the catch.

Sproles finished second with 707 yards after the catch, according to ESPN Stats & Information. New England’s Wes Welker ended up leading the league with 712 yards after the catch.

Carolina running back Jonathan Stewart was No. 10 with 500 yards after the catch. New Orleans running back Pierre Thomas was No. 15 at 478 yards. New Orleans tight end Jimmy Graham was No. 16 at 452 yards. Carolina’s Steve Smith was No. 18 at 449 yards.

The Saints finished second in the NFL in team yards after the catch. The Saints had 2,435. New England led the league with 2,595 yards.

Guess who leads NFL in dropped passes?

December, 28, 2011
12/28/11
11:43
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With one week to go in the regular season, Atlanta’s Roddy White is back in sole possession of the league lead in dropped passes.

White was charged with one drop in Monday night’s loss to New Orleans, according to ESPN Stats & Information. That gives White 12 drops for the season and makes for one of the most perplexing storylines in the NFC South.

White had only three drops in 2010, when he led the league with 115 catches. White has good numbers (96 catches for 1,227 yards and eight touchdowns) this season, but they could be much better without the drops.

Tampa Bay’s Mike Williams also has had a big problem with drops. He’s in sole possession of third place with eight drops. Cleveland’s Greg Little is No. 2 with 11.

New Orleans’ Jimmy Graham is tied for No. 11 with six drops. Tampa Bay’s Arrelious Benn and Kellen Winslow and Carolina’s Jonathan Stewart are all tied for No. 21 with five drops.

The Buccaneers lead the NFC South with 28 team drops, which puts them at No. 3 in the league. The Falcons are tied for No. 7 with 26 drops.

The Saints are tied for No. 11 with 24 drops and the Panthers are tied for No. 27 with 15 drops.

Final Word: NFC South

December, 23, 2011
12/23/11
1:30
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» NFC Final Word: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Five nuggets of knowledge about Week 16:

[+] Enlarge
Matt Ryan
Bob Donnan/US PresswireMatt Ryan has thrown seven touchdown passes and zero interceptions in the Falcons' past two games.
Ryan's on fire: The Falcons appear to be getting hot at the right time. In the past six quarters, against the Panthers and Jaguars, Atlanta has outscored opponents 65-14. Quarterback Matt Ryan has thrown seven touchdown passes and zero interceptions in those two games. Ryan also is playing for a spot in the record book. He is 42-18 in his career. Joe Flacco, who also entered the league in the 2008 draft, is 42-20. Each already has won more starts in his first four seasons than any quarterback since the Super Bowl era started in1966.

Monday Night Fever: The New Orleans Saints have all sorts of streaks going. They’ve clinched a playoff berth for the third straight season. They’ve won at least 11 games in each of the past three seasons. They’re on a six-game winning streak. That ties them with the Patriots for the longest active winning streak in the NFL. Finally, the Saints have the NFL’s longest active winning streak in “Monday Night Football’’ games. They’ve won six straight and haven’t lost since a 2008 game against Minnesota.

The “other’’ record: Understandably, most of the talk surrounding the Saints has to do with Drew Brees’ pursuit of Dan Marino’s record for passing yards in a season. But another member of the Saints is chasing history. That’s second-year tight end Jimmy Graham. He’s on pace for 99 catches and 1,338 receiving yards. The NFL record for receiving yards by a tight end is 1,290, set by San Diego’s Kellen Winslow in 1980. Graham also has had at least five catches in six straight games.

Making history: Even in a season that hasn’t been filled with wins, the Carolina Panthers have a chance to make some very positive history. Running back Jonathan Stewart needs to gain just 6 rushing yards to reach 600 for the season. Fellow running back DeAngelo Williams already has 717 yards and quarterback Cam Newton has 609 yards. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the last two teams to have three 600-yard rushers in a season were the 2006 Falcons (Michael Vick, Warrick Dunn and Jerious Norwood) and the 1978 Patriots (Sam Cunningham, Horace Ivory and Andy Johnson).

Losing at historic rate: Some unflattering notes on Tampa Bay’s eight-game losing streak: It’s the longest active streak in the NFL and the first time the Bucs have lost eight straight in a season since 1987. If the Bucs lose to the Panthers and make it nine straight, it will set off some more statistical bells. The Bucs haven’t lost nine straight in a season since starting 0-9 in 1985.

Turner, Blount racking up YAC

December, 23, 2011
12/23/11
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Atlanta running back Michael Turner is one of the NFL’s best at making things happen after taking a hit.

Turner has gained 621 of his 1,129 rushing yards after contact, according to ESPN Stats & Information. Only Jacksonville’s Maurice Jones-Drew (687) has gained more yards after contact. Turner has had 55 percent of his yards come after contact. That percentage puts him in a tie for fourth in the league and he averages 2.3 yards after contact.

Tampa Bay’s LeGarrette Blount also has gained 55 percent of his yards after contact. Blount has gained 417 yards (No. 20 in the NFL) after the first hit and averages 2.4 yards after contact.

After Turner and Blount, there’s a steep drop off to the other NFC South running backs. Carolina’s Jonathan Stewart has 314 yards after contact and teammate DeAngelo Williams has 289 yards.

New Orleans’ Pierre Thomas has 217 yards after contact and Mark Ingram has 201 yards.

The only other NFC South player among the top 50 in this category is Carolina quarterback Cam Newton. He has 164 yards after contact. He’s one of only two quarterbacks on the list. The other is Denver’s Tim Tebow, who has 230 yards after contact.

Panthers get some salary-cap help

December, 7, 2011
12/07/11
3:07
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For those wondering how the cap-strapped Carolina Panthers are able to sign more new defensive tackles to replace injured ones, we’ve got the answer.

It's because the Panthers are no longer all that tight against the salary cap. According to contract numbers obtained by ESPN.com, the Panthers recently were given about $2.5 million in cap room as credit for bonus pro-rations that were already paid.

The Panthers received a credit of $1.625 million for part of a bonus that was paid to running back Jonathan Stewart in 2009. They also got a credit of $937,500 for a bonus that was paid to tackle Jeff Otah that same year.

The Panthers currently are sitting about $3.4 million under this year’s cap.
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