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Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Falcons in 2012.

Dream scenario (13-3): Let’s note right up front that that dream record would also include at least two postseason wins, which would be a first in the era of coach Mike Smith, general manager Thomas Dimitroff and Matt Ryan. In their time, the Falcons have played the days after Christmas exactly like they’re the days after Christmas. There’s been a huge letdown when January has rolled around.

That’s putting an enormous amount of pressure on the Falcons. But that might be a good thing. Smith has said postseason failures have caused him to rethink how he does a lot of things. There’s little doubt those failures played a role in the hiring of new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter and defensive coordinator Mike Nolan, moves that might get the Falcons over the hump.

There are a lot of scouts and coaches around the league who believe Ryan was held back by former offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey and the defense never established any sort of identity under Brian VanGorder. The Falcons can score with any team if Ryan is allowed (and has time) to throw the ball downfield to Roddy White and Julio Jones. Nolan is preaching about the need to be more aggressive on defense.

Nightmare scenario (8-8 or anything worse): Let’s face it: The only way the Falcons are a .500 (or worse) team is if they have several major injuries or a huge implosion. This is a team that is loaded with individual talent on both sides of the ball. Or so it seems.

When coordinators go, head coaches and key players tend to lose their insulation. If Koetter can’t get more out of Ryan than Mularkey did, the Falcons suddenly have a huge issue at quarterback. If Nolan can’t get guys like Ray Edwards and Dunta Robinson to do more than they did for VanGorder, then maybe it’s not all about the coordinators or offensive and defensive schemes.

Owner Arthur Blank has said Smith isn’t on the hot seat, no matter what happens this season. But I think Smith is at least entering the same territory Tony Dungy once did in Tampa Bay. Smith is being labeled as a nice guy who can win a lot of games in the regular season but can’t win in January. If this team doesn’t win a playoff game, Smith officially is on the hot seat. If this team somehow fails to even make the playoffs, Blank might be forced to rethink his statement. This team is too talented not to win.

Trent Dilfer, Gary Horton, Mel Kiper Jr. and Matt Williamson got together and came up with an outstanding project that looks a few years down the road. Check out this Insider post in which they have NFL Future Power Rankings for all teams.

The rankings are based on what the panel projects teams will look like in the 2015 season. The panel used the following criteria -- roster, quarterback, draft, front office and coaching staff -- and weighed each in order of importance to come up with the rankings. You can see a more detailed explanation of the methodology here.

From an NFC South perspective, the rankings don’t look all that different from results in recent years or what most people are projecting in 2012.

The panel says the New Orleans Saints, who have won two of the past three division titles, will be the division’s best team in 2015. The panel notes the bounty scandal and its punishments, but the consensus seems to be that the Saints can overcome that because there’s a strong nucleus in place, as well as a good coaching staff and front office. Horton notes the Saints have to build around guys like Jimmy Graham and Mark Ingram in the future. I think it’s true that the Saints have to develop some more young stars in the next few years. But, as long as Drew Brees is the quarterback, the Saints should be a top-10 team.

After the Saints, there’s a bit of a surprise. Although the Saints and Falcons have been the class of the division in recent years, the panel doesn’t see that quite being the case in 2015. The Falcons are No. 13 and the Panthers are No. 12.

Let’s start with why the Panthers are viewed as a team on the rise. Dilfer sums it up well by saying quarterback Cam Newton has an incredibly high ceiling. In 2015, Newton will be just approaching that ceiling. There’s no doubt the future looks bright for Carolina, but the Panthers may have to replace longtime stars Jordan Gross and Steve Smith before too long.

I disagree with the panel slightly on the placement of the Falcons. I think Atlanta will be a top-10 team in 2015 and probably each year between now and then. I agree with the panel that the Falcons have some old players at several positions, but I think general manager Thomas Dimitroff gradually will address those issues. As long as Matt Ryan and Julio Jones stay healthy and linebacker Sean Weatherspoon continues to emerge as a defensive star, I think the Falcons will be an annual playoff contender.

The Buccaneers are No. 19. While that ranking is last in the division, the Bucs have been in the 20s and 30s in a lot of recent rankings. The panel sounds optimistic about the Bucs in discussing the young talent and the new coaching staff. But there are a lot of unknowns. If quarterback Josh Freeman can get his career back on track and coach Greg Schiano can make the transition from college to the NFL, I think the Bucs have a real chance to jump up in the rankings when 2015 actually rolls around.

Time for a quick look at some headlines from around the NFC South.

• The New Orleans Saints’ bounty program dominated the NFL owners meeting in Palm Beach, Fla., in late March. The owners will have another meeting Tuesday in Atlanta. The May gathering is a much quicker and smaller meeting (owners, coaches and executives attend the March meeting) with an agenda that includes some updates on stadium situations and some talk about minor rule changes. But I would expect NFL commissioner Roger Goodell to get asked about the defamation lawsuit recently filed against him by New Orleans linebacker Jonathan Vilma, and the commissioner also might have to field some more questions on the Saints’ situation from the media.

• The Carolina Panthers have signed undrafted rookie receiver Hubert Anyiam. He spent a brief period after the draft with San Diego before being waived. Anyiam played at Oklahoma State. He’ll be fighting for one of the final receiver spots on the roster. Veteran Steve Smith is locked in as a starter. But, after that, Brandon LaFell, David Gettis, Kealoha Pilares, rookie Joe Adams and Armanti Edwards are competing for the remaining jobs. To make room for Anyiam, the Panthers released defensive tackle Jason Shirley.

• Speaking of Carolina’s receiver situation, Joseph Person has a breakdown of that, as well as some other position battles as the Panthers get ready to take the field for Tuesday’s organized team activity.

• Jay Adams writes that Matt Ryan, Tony Gonzalez and Julio Jones are prime candidates for the next wave of the NFL Network’s list of the top 100 players for 2012. I’m thinking there’s a pretty good chance Jones could end up being ranked ahead of Roddy White, who fell 41 spots from last year and came in at No. 65 on this year’s list.

• Mike Freeman writes that a lot of New Orleans players feel the franchise is being “railroaded’’ in the bounty scandal, and say the NFL hasn’t produced enough evidence to justify the punishments. But Freeman is right when he says whatever evidence the NFL has might stay locked away. The league says it has sources to protect. Unless Vilma’s lawsuit or something else pushes this matter into an open court room, the NFL doesn’t have to release anything more.

• The one knock on Tampa Bay rookie linebacker Lavonte David is his size (6-foot-1 and 233 pounds). But Scott Reynolds writes that shouldn’t be a concern because David is such a sure tackler. Funny, but a lot of people said Derrick Brooks was undersized and should move to safety back when he was coming out of college. Funny, but the Bucs left Brooks at linebacker, and that ended up working out very nicely.

» NFC pressure points: West | North | South | East
» AFC pressure points: West | North | South | East

Examining who faces the most challenging season for the Atlanta Falcons and why.

From ownership through the front office and coaching staff and into every corner of the locker room, the Falcons firmly believe Matt Ryan has everything it takes to be an elite quarterback. He’s a natural leader, works as hard as anyone and has won a lot of games during his first four seasons.

The problem is that every one of those wins has come in the regular season. The lack of a single postseason victory has a lot of people on the outside doubting whether Ryan really is the long-term answer for Atlanta. If Ryan goes a fifth season without a playoff victory, some of that doubt may creep into the Falcons' own building.

There have been excuses -- most of them valid -- for Ryan's inability to win in the postseason. But those excuses are disappearing. The Falcons brought in Julio Jones last year to be a deep threat, and they’re overhauling their offensive line to give Ryan more time to find receivers down the field. They also have brought in new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter, who supposedly is installing a system that’s tailored to get the most out of Ryan’s ability.

The Falcons are going out of their way to give Ryan everything he needs to succeed. Now, with his current contract set to expire in 2013, it’s up to Ryan to take the next step. If he can win a playoff game, a contract extension is sure to follow and the doubts will disappear.

In financial terms, two NFC South teams are swimming in very shallow rookie pools.

I got a look at the league-wide numbers for rookie pools (the amount of salary-cap space that can be used on 2012 draft picks this season. The New Orleans Saints have the NFL’s smallest rookie pool at $2.271 million.

That’s due to the fact the Saints had only five draft picks and none came before the third round. New Orleans traded away its 2012 first-round pick last year and had to forward its second-round pick as part of the punishment for the bounty program. Numbers for the rookie pool are determined by how many picks a team has and where those picks were located in each round.

Under the collective-bargaining agreement that came into existence last summer, each team also has a limit on the total value for the life of all the rookie contracts and the Saints are limited there as well. The maximum total compensation the Saints can pay their rookies over the course of their first contracts is $12.495 million. The Saints are the only NFC South team yet to sign a single draft pick.

The Atlanta Falcons aren’t far behind the Saints. They’re No. 2 in the NFL in terms of the smallest rookie pool at $2.861 million, narrowly edging out Oakland, which is No. 3 with a $2.862 million rookie pool. The Falcons were without a first-round draft pick because they traded it away as part of the deal to get Julio Jones in 2011. The Falcons also are capped at $15.736 million to pay their five draft choices over the course of their contracts. Atlanta has signed all of its picks except for fifth-round defensive end Jonathan Massaquoi.

The Carolina Panthers are somewhere right around the middle of the league with a $5.5 million rookie pool. The Panthers had seven draft picks. All of them have signed and the total value of their contracts is $29.293 million. That’s just about $700,000 less than the cap on what they could have paid all their picks over the course of their contracts.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who had two first-round picks, have the division’s largest rookie pool at $6.166 million and the Bucs can pay their seven rookies as much as $33.9 million over the life of their contracts. Tampa Bay has signed all of its rookies except for first-round choices Mark Barron and Doug Martin and second-round choice Lavonte David.

But the Bucs aren’t even close to having the league’s largest rookie pool. That honor belongs to the Cleveland Browns, who had 11 picks and have a rookie pool of $9.7 million.

The Atlanta Falcons have had the quietest offseason of any NFC South team. But that doesn't mean they won't have some changes in their starting lineup.

Now that the NFL draft is over, let's take a look at my best guess at what Atlanta's starting lineup will look like in September.

OFFENSE

• QB Matt Ryan

• RB Michael Turner

• FB Ovie Mughelli

• WR Roddy White

• WR Julio Jones

• TE Tony Gonzalez

• LT Sam Baker (or someone not yet on the roster)

• LG Justin Blalock

• C Joe Hawley (I’m guessing he starts ahead of Todd McClure)

• RG Peter Konz (unless he ends up playing center)

• RT Tyson Clabo

DEFENSE

• DE John Abraham

• DT Corey Peters

• DT Jonathan Babineaux

• DE Ray Edwards

• OLB Sean Weatherspoon

• MLB Akeem Dent (Falcons would like him to beat out veteran Lofa Tatupu)

• OLB Stephen Nicholas

• CB Brent Grimes

• CB Dunta Robinson (Asante Samuel will play as much as Grimes and Robinson)

• SS William Moore

• FS Thomas DeCoud

SPECIALISTS

• K Matt Bryant

• P Matt Bosher

• PR Dominique Franks

• KR Jacquizz Rodgers

» NFC draft analysis: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

The 2012 NFL draft won’t be remembered as the flashiest in NFC South history. That honor belongs to the 2011 draft -- probably forever.

It’s tough to top a draft in which quarterback Cam Newton went No. 1 to Carolina, Atlanta traded up for receiver Julio Jones and New Orleans traded back into the first round to get running back Mark Ingram. Aside from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' pretty good splash, this year’s NFC South draft wasn’t filled with drama.

Instead, it was filled with very deliberate picks that addressed big needs all around the division.

BEST MOVE

No pick set the division's tone for this draft better than Carolina's selection of Boston College linebacker Luke Kuechly at No. 9 overall.

There’s nothing really flashy about Kuechly, but the Panthers didn’t need flash this time around. They got that with Newton, and he gave them a prolific offense. But that offense was only enough to carry the Panthers to a 6-10 record last season. Carolina couldn’t play defense, and opponents have run all over the Panthers the last few seasons.

A lot of people thought the Panthers should go with a defensive tackle in the first round. But there were two reasons they didn’t. They weren’t enamored of any of the first-round prospects at that position. They also feel pretty good about what they already have at defensive tackle. Ron Edwards, a big free-agent pickup last year, is coming back from an injury that kept him out last season, and the Panthers think he can anchor their defensive line. They also used two third-round picks on defensive tackles Terrell McClain and Sione Fua last year.

The Panthers believe they have the personnel to clog up the middle. Kuechly should be able to come in and do what he does best. He can roam the field and be the kind of tackling machine he was in college. This guy had as few flaws as any player in the draft and is ready to make an instant impact. It remains to be seen whether Keuchly or Jon Beason will play the middle and which one will slide outside. It doesn’t really matter. Either way, the Panthers now have a deep linebacker corps that should be able to stop just about any running game.

RISKIEST MOVE

You could say the Saints made a risky move by using their first draft pick on a player who didn’t even play his college ball in the United States. They drafted Regina (Canada) defensive tackle Akiem Hicks with the No. 89 overall pick in the third round.

The fact Hicks didn’t play against elite completion means there is obvious risk with this pick. But why not take a shot when you’re this late in the third round? Hicks has tremendous upside, and he was good enough to be recruited to LSU before leaving for Canada. The Saints have a great history of discovering gems (Jimmy Graham, Jahri Evans and Marques Colston) later in the draft. They took a risk, but it might pay off.

Hicks should at least have a chance at some playing time early on. The Saints don’t have much behind Brodrick Bunkley and Sedrick Ellis at defensive tackle. Hicks could end up in the rotation very quickly, and the Saints could end up looking very smart for taking this risk.

MOST SURPRISING MOVE

The Bucs haven’t been exciting in any way in quite some time. But they provided virtually all of the excitement within the division in this draft. General manager Mark Dominik shrewdly made some trades that gave the Bucs the ammunition to move up twice and come out of the draft with three instant starters.

Get over the fact that Dominik used the No. 7 overall pick on a safety, Alabama’s Mark Barron. The Bucs weren’t sold on LSU cornerback Morris Claiborne for reasons we don’t know. They were sold on Barron, and safety might have been the weakest position on their roster heading into the draft. Trading down from No. 5 to No. 7 started a process in which Dominik was able to manipulate the draft with trades that gave him two other starters -- running back Doug Martin and outside linebacker Lavonte David.

The Bucs traded back into the first round to get Martin late Thursday night. They were without a second-round pick Friday night. But they saw David sitting there, they had the ammunition, and they pounced. No NFC South team needed more help from this draft than the Buccaneers, and Dominik made sure they got help that will matter right from the start.

FILE IT AWAY

Atlanta’s selection of Wisconsin fullback Bradie Ewing in the fifth round might not seem like a big deal on the surface. For now, Ewing is probably nothing more than a special-teams player. But the Falcons also were looking a year or two down the road when they made this pick. Veteran fullback Ovie Mughelli is coming off a major injury, and he’ll turn 32 in June. It was time to find someone to groom as Mughelli’s eventual successor.

As it turns out, the Atlanta Falcons aren’t planning to jump over that playoff hurdle that’s been talked so much about.

They simply plan to plow right through it. The latest evidence came Friday night when the Falcons used their second-round draft pick (No. 55 overall) on Wisconsin center (more on that in a moment) Peter Konz.

It would have been very easy for the Falcons to overreact and do something crazy after an embarrassing January playoff loss to the New York Giants. Yeah, they could have made a leap in free agency for defensive end Mario Williams, which seemed to be the preferred rout by 99 of every 100 Falcons fans.

But the fact is, if the Falcons had landed Williams back in March, they wouldn’t be as good a team as they are today. Seriously.

Yeah, I know it sounds a little ridiculous to say the Falcons are better off without a guy who could have brought them double-digit sacks. But it’s the truth. Had the Falcons signed Williams, they would have had to gut their existing roster.

The salary-cap space Williams would have taken up would have prevented the Falcons from keeping guys like receiver Harry Douglas, safety Thomas DeCoud, defensive end John Abraham, center Todd McClure and running back Jason Snelling. They might not have been able to fit cornerback Brent Grimes under the salary cap with the franchise tag. Even if they did, they would have had to have made some dramatic moves -- like releasing receiver Roddy White, running back Michael Turner or fullback Ovie Mughelli.

Any or all of those moves seemed possible in the immediate aftermath of the loss in New York. But owner Arthur Blank, who earlier in his tenure may have been prone to overreacting, sat down with coach Mike Smith and general manager Thomas Dimitroff and coolly came up with a plan on how the Falcons can take the next step.

Smith and Dimitroff have had four straight winning seasons, but have yet to win a playoff game. When you’ve had four straight winning seasons, you don’t blow a team up. You keep it together and fix the things that are wrong.

Without flash, that’s precisely what the Falcons have done and Friday night was just another step.

“We were really honed in on the offensive line as you can imagine,’’ Dimitroff said, moments after selecting Konz. “We need to get more stout on this offensive line.’’

There’s no doubt about that. Let’s consider this item from ESPN Stats & Information: The Falcons were one of 10 teams to average less than 4.0 yards per rush between the tackles last season. That came despite the fact they have a bruising runner in Turner.

The Falcons also didn’t do a great job of protecting quarterback Matt Ryan. That failure was the major reason why all the downfield passing we heard about after the Falcons traded up to draft Julio Jones didn’t fully materialize last year. The Falcons were soft up front and it cost offensive line coach Paul Boudreau his job.

Other than left tackle Sam Baker, a first-round pick in 2008, the Falcons really haven’t made huge investments in their offensive line. The arrival of Konz changes that.

Although he played center at Wisconsin, Dimitroff said “we’re listing him as a guard/center right now’’.

It’s no big secret McClure is at the end of his career. He’s 35 and it shows. The Falcons brought him back as insurance, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be their starting center on opening day. Guard Joe Hawley also can play center. Hawley also could factor into the situation at guard, where he played last season along with Justin Blalock and Garrett Reynolds. Add Konz to that mix and it’s pretty clear the Falcons are going to throw all their guards and centers onto the field in training camp and the preseason and see which of the three emerge as the best trio.

“Let’s come in here and have some great competition and see who can protect Matt Ryan the best,’’ Dimitroff said. “We want production and we want guys who can finish. In Peter, we have a guy who can do both of those.’’

Look, I’m not saying a guard/center from Wisconsin is going to come in the second round and push right through that hurdle all by himself. Konz is just a part of the puzzle and maybe fans can finally see that picture coming together now.

There’s a reason why Atlanta didn’t have a first-round pick this year. Jones was the first-round pick for last year and this year and he’s better than any receiver in this year’s draft. There was a reason why the Falcons didn’t make to splurge in free agency. They didn’t have the salary-cap room to do it without ripping a good team apart.

Little by little, they’ve made moves that have them gaining speed as they head for that hurdle. Just this week, they traded a late-round draft pick for four-time Pro Bowl cornerback Asante Samuel and quickly signed him to a cap-friendly deal.

In theory, Samuel should team with Grimes and Dunta Robinson to give the Falcons one of the league’s best cornerback tandems. In theory, Konz should team with all those other offensive linemen to make the Falcons tougher up front.

Yeah, there still are a few needs -- the pass rush, depth at tight end and maybe some more help on the outside of the offensive line. The Falcons are well aware of all that. They’ll address those needs in the rest of the draft and after it when the time and the price are right. But, now, you can see their offseason plan taking shape.

If the Falcons had gone out and paid a fortune for Williams, they wouldn’t be making solid, safe picks like Konz because they’d be desperately trying to repair all the other damage they did to their team.

As we get ready for the start of the NFL draft Thursday, let’s quickly review which teams have what picks.

After that, we’ll turn to ESPN Stats & Information for a few draft notes on each team.

The Atlanta Falcons have six overall picks -- second round (No. 55), third round (84), fifth round (157), sixth round (192) and two seventh-round picks (229 and 249). After trading up to draft Julio Jones last year, the Falcons are without a first-round pick for the first time since 2006. With only two picks in the first four rounds, the Falcons are tied with the Saints and Raiders for the fewest. The Falcons have selected a defensive player with six of eight picks in the first three rounds since 2009. Of the six draft picks in 2011, only Jones started a game last season.

The Carolina Panthers have seven picks -- first round (No. 9), second round (40), fourth round (104), fifth round (143), sixth round (180 and 207) and seventh round (216). The Panthers are the only team in the draft without a third-round pick. They traded that to the Bears last year for tight end Greg Olsen. Of the five draft picks the Panthers have had in the top 10 in their history, they have used four of them on offensive players, with defensive end Julius Peppers being the only exception.

The New Orleans Saints have five picks -- third round (No. 89), fourth round (122), fifth round (162), sixth round (179) and seventh round (234). The Saints traded away their first-round pick last year when they moved back into the first round to take running back Mark Ingram. They had to forfeit their second-round pick, which would have been No. 59, as part of their punishment for the bounty program. This is the first time in franchise history the Saints haven’t had a pick in the first two rounds. The five picks are the fewest the Saints have had since 2009, when they had four. Their 16 total picks from 2009 through 2011 are the second-fewest of any team. The Saints drafted defensive players with five of their six picks in 2011.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have six picks -- first round (No. 5), second round (36), third round (68), fifth round (140), sixth round (174) and seventh round (212). The only time the Bucs have had fewer picks was in 2000, when they had only five. Tampa Bay’s eight draft picks in 2011 combined for 46 starts last season (tied for third in the league). The Bucs have drafted defensive front-seven players with their first three picks in 2011 and their first two picks in 2010. There’s been a lot of speculation the Bucs could use their first-round pick on LSU cornerback Morris Claiborne. If they do, it will mark only the third time in franchise history they’ve used a first-round pick on a defensive back. The previous two were Aqib Talib in 2008 and Roderick Jones in 1986.

The NFL draft is two days way. In Atlanta, that means people are talking about last year’s draft.

That’s mostly because the Falcons are without a first-round pick after using it as part of a package to move up 21 spots to get receiver Julio Jones in last year’s draft. Atlanta doesn’t pick until the second round (No. 55 overall).

Lots of folks are moaning about the Jones trade now and talking about how it left the Falcons without a chance to get a player who can make an instant impact at left tackle or defensive end. I get those points.

I’d like to see the Falcons upgrade on Sam Baker at left tackle and I’d like to see them get a pass-rusher to go with John Abraham in this draft. None of that’s going to come in the first round and, even if the Falcons get a left tackle and a defensive end later in the draft, they won’t make an instant impact. But I’m not looking back regretfully at last year’s trade to get Jones.

If the Falcons hadn’t made the trade, they’d be picking No. 22 in this year’s draft.

Take a look at this mock draft done by the ESPN.com Blog Network on Monday and see if there is anybody who really excites you available at No. 22. I just did and I’m not seeing much. Georgia tackle Cordy Glenn went at No. 21 and some are projecting him as a guard. I’m a strong believer that you don’t take a guard in the first round and I’m not seeing any tackle I’d take in this scenario. I’d stick with Baker and add a guy who might be able to compete with him later in the draft or in free agency.

It’s kind of the same story at defensive end. Chandler Jones and Courtney Upshaw were taken after No. 22 and neither of those are guys who likely will make a huge instant impact. You can find a defensive end with as much potential in the second round.

The Falcons already got their impact player in this draft. It was Jones. Yeah, his rookie numbers weren’t off the charts, but they were very solid. Jones came up just a bit short of 1,000 receiving yards even though he missed three games with injuries. There were moments last season when Jones looked spectacular at a position where many rookies take several years to make a true impact.

I think Jones will only get better this year and new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter’s scheme will find more ways to get him the ball. Jones and Roddy White are close to being on even ground right now. As White ages, it’s only a matter of time before Jones becomes the true No. 1 receiver.

The Falcons got their impact player from this draft in last year’s draft. I gladly will take Jones over anything they could get at No. 22 in this year’s draft.

His team is without a first-round pick, but Atlanta Falcons general manager Thomas Dimitroff said that really hasn’t changed how the organization has geared up for next week’s NFL draft.

The Falcons don’t pick until the second round (No. 55 overall). They traded away their first-round pick last year to move up in the 2011 draft and land wide receiver Julio Jones.

“We’ve still done our homework on all the players in this draft, like we always do,’’ Dimitroff said in a phone interview Thursday afternoon. “We all have seen situations in the past where players have fallen that people weren’t expecting to fall. We have to be prepared for any scenario.’’

But Dimitroff did admit he’s not counting on any of the draft’s high-profile players falling all the way to where Atlanta picks.

“Since we took Julio, we’ve focused in on the second round,’’ Dimitroff said. “We can dream about players falling, but we’re trying to stick in the reality-check area. We feel we’ve done a good job of really focusing in on the guys that actually will be available to us and we feel like there should be some good options available to us. You do still have to pay attention to the rest of the draft. We’ve always gone into a draft prepared for a bunch of scenarios with the first pick. But it’s a lot different this time because we’re going in with 54 picks ahead of us and that creates a lot more scenarios than we’ve faced in the past. But we’re confident that we’re ready for any scenario.’’

Let's take a look at some of the top headlines from around the division.

The Falcons are without a first-round draft pick. That means you can expect plenty of criticism of last year’s trade to move up and get receiver Julio Jones between now and the draft. It’s understandable, as the Falcons are sitting there with needs on the offensive and defensive lines, and needs for depth in other areas. But I can’t say the trade to get Jones was a mistake. He showed plenty of promise in his rookie season, and could end up being one of the league’s top receivers. No doubt the cost was high, but it’s too early in Jones’ career to say the Falcons gave up too much to get him.

Carolina quarterback Cam Newton has said he expects major improvement over a debut season in which he won Offensive Rookie of the Year. Head over to SportsNation to vote on how much you think Newton will improve.

Jordan Gross’ high school in Idaho will get some new weight-room equipment, courtesy of the Carolina offensive tackle.

Here’s a list of five first-round draft prospects for the Panthers. I’d add Mississippi State defensive tackle Fletcher Cox and Boston college linebacker Luke Kuechly to that list. I’d also scratch Stanford guard David DeCastro from that list. He’s a great prospect, but I can’t see the Panthers using a top-10 pick on a guard.

There’s been wide-spread speculation that middle linebacker Jonathan Vilma will face a suspension when the NFL hands out player punishments for the Saints’ bounty program. Although the league has said anywhere from 22 to 27 players were involved in a three-season span, there hasn’t been much speculation about which other players could face suspensions. Until now. Safety Roman Harper and defensive end Will Smith are mentioned as possible candidates in this report.

Jeff Schultz takes New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees to task for not acknowledging the existence of a bounty program.

After going through the first day of the offseason program, New Orleans cornerback Jabari Greer talked about the strength of the Saints’ locker room, and how that should help the team with the adversity it faces in the aftermath of the bounty program. He's got a point. Although it was clear there was some friction between coach Sean Payton and former defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, the chemistry among the New Orleans players has always been a big positive in recent years.

The Saints have re-signed special-teams player/receiver Courtney Roby. They also released linebacker Jeremiha Hunter.

Gary Shelton runs through the argument that is consuming Tampa Bay fans -- should the Bucs take LSU cornerback Morris Claiborne or Alabama running back Trent Richardson with the No. 5 overall pick? It’s a tough call, and I don’t think the Bucs would be making a huge mistake by going either way. I lean slightly toward Claiborne, because the trending wisdom in the NFL is that you don’t draft a running back early in the first round. Then again, the way coach Greg Schiano has been talking, his offensive system might make running back a more important position than it is for most other teams.

Check out this Insider piece with Todd McShay’s latest mock draft.

This one is a bit different than usual because McShay provides a few different scenarios for each team in the first round.

At No. 5, McShay has the Tampa Bay Buccaneers taking LSU cornerback Morris Claiborne. But he also says Alabama running back Trent Richardson is a possibility, if he’s available. In the current mock, Richardson isn’t an option for the Bucs because he’s going No. 4 to Cleveland. If Richardson’s available, would the Bucs take him? I don’t know exactly what general manager Mark Dominik and coach Greg Schiano are thinking and they’re not going to reveal their plans in advance.

If Claiborne and Richardson are both available, this is a tough call. The common logic in the NFL these days is that you don’t take a running back in the upper half of the first round, unless he truly is special. McShay, and others, are saying Richardson is the best running back to enter the draft since Adrian Peterson. If the Bucs agree, they may take a shot at Richardson. But I think Claiborne’s the safe choice. He’s the top cornerback in this draft and the Bucs are hoping they aren’t in position to draft top corners in the coming years. They can find a quality running back later in the draft. I’m also wondering if Oklahoma State receiver Justin Blackmon could be a consideration here. I know the Bucs just paid big money to free agent Vincent Jackson, but it seems like they want to surround quarterback Josh Freeman with as much talent as possible.

At No. 9, McShay has the Carolina Panthers taking Mississippi State defensive tackle Fletcher Cox. Makes sense and I can see this happening. But I also can see the Panthers going in an entirely different direction if they see a cornerback, linebacker, wide receiver or offensive tackle that they like better.

This is where we provide our reminder that the Falcons (Julio Jones) and the Saints (Mark Ingram) already have made use of their first-round picks in this draft.

Given the way Atlanta Falcons fans have reacted to what the team has done (or, more accurately, not done) this offseason, I was expecting Arthur Blank to pull out earmuffs as he reached into his pocket just before the start of an interview last week.

It didn’t happen. Instead, the owner of the Falcons pulled out a pair of sunglasses. This was a rare step outside during the NFL owners meetings in Palm Beach, Fla. He slipped on the shades, surveyed the Atlantic Ocean, sat down on a bench and started explaining, in great detail, the course his team has chosen.

Maybe this will, once and for all, stop all the screaming in Atlanta about how the Falcons didn’t pursue LB Mario Williams and didn’t really do much of anything in free agency. Blank has a detailed answer for that and, when you listen, it should all start to make sense.

There was a moment when I looked directly at Blank, but could have sworn I was seeing and hearing Gene Hackman. It was almost exactly like the scene in “Hoosiers," where the basketball coach played by Hackman firmly tells a referee “my team is on the court" after a player fouls out and the coach elects to go with four players instead of turning back to a player who had defied orders.

Blank has said, “My team is on the field."

Yeah, the marquee free-agent signings have been linebacker Lofa Tatupu and guard Vince Manuwai. And Atlanta fans aren’t exactly jumping up and down about the fact that the Falcons re-signed defensive end John Abraham and center Todd McClure; it wouldn’t have surprised anyone if they decided to retire. Throw in the re-signing of role players Thomas DeCoud, Jason Snelling and Harry Douglas, and it’s easy to see why a lot of Atlanta fans believe the Falcons haven’t done a single thing to get better after ending last season with an embarrassing playoff loss to the New York Giants.

But Blank has an explanation, so let’s hear it.

“I feel good about where we are,’’ Blank said. “I know we didn’t make a big splash going into free agency. But that really wasn’t our intention going into this year. We really felt we had a lot of talent. We were fortunate that we had the opportunity to bring in the two new coordinators and a few other coaches. At some point, it’s not even a matter of if the contents are correct. Sometimes, it’s a matter of who is delivering the message and whether the players are hearing it or not.’’

The man makes a good point. The 2011 Falcons team that went 10-6 (and didn't play with much consistency) was essentially the same team that went 13-3 and played with a great deal of consistency in 2010. The 2012 Falcons have largely the same roster as the previous two teams. In the eyes of Blank, general manager Thomas Dimitroff and coach Mike Smith, the problem last season and the reason this team hasn’t won a playoff game under the current administration isn’t about the roster.

Maybe the roster was just fine, but the coaching staff and the schemes were holding back the Falcons. Offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey left after the season to become head coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder left after the season to become the defensive coordinator at Auburn. Both men left on their own, but I get the impression that if they hadn’t, they might have been shown the door.

Let’s be honest here. Mularkey’s offensive system reached its peak in 2010 and didn’t get any better even with the addition of talented rookie receiver Julio Jones last season. VanGorder’s defense was solid but never dominant, which was a disappointment because the Falcons have some individual talent on defense. Mularkey has been replaced by Dirk Koetter, and VanGorder has been replaced by Mike Nolan.

“I love the selections that Smitty and Thomas made,’’ Blank said.

I get the sense that the days of QB Matt Ryan rolling out and almost always checking down are over. I get the sense that the days of sitting back in the Cover 2 are long gone.

“Dirk and I have had numerous discussions in terms of what our players are capable of doing,’’ Smith said during the meetings. “I think, first and foremost, you have to design your schemes toward what the players are capable of doing. We’ve spent a lot of time identifying the strengths and weakness of all our guys and what they do well and what they don’t do well, and we want to put together an offense that accentuates their strengths.’’

In other words, the Falcons aren’t going to be handing the ball to Michael Turner 300-plus times a season. They’re going to try to take some shots downfield with Jones and Roddy White, and they’re going to get versatile second-year running back Jacquizz Rodgers more involved in the offense. They also will try to put Ryan in a position where he can go from being a good quarterback to an elite one.

Smith said he’s had similar discussions with Nolan, the former head coach of the San Francisco 49ers who has had success as a defensive coordinator elsewhere. Nolan is noted for producing aggressive defenses. Some minor tweaks to attitude and scheme could provide an upgrade over the VanGorder units that never were able to establish any sort of identity.

Blank made quite a bit of noise after the loss to the Giants about how simply getting to the playoffs wasn’t good enough. He wants his team to win playoff games and contend for the Super Bowl.

That really hasn’t changed. But after the heat of the moment cooled a bit, Blank, Smith and Dimitroff sat back and realized they weren’t all that far from where they wanted to be. Early in his days as an owner, Blank was portrayed as hands-on and reactionary. I don’t think those descriptions really fit him anymore and I think he’s learned from his past. I think Blank is at a stage where he remains plugged in but trusts Smith and Dimitroff to make the football decisions.

“I went back and studied this over a long period of time in the NFL and studied the great teams,’’ Blank said. “Consistency is very important in terms of leadership with coaches and players. The great teams, what they have done is they’ve kept their head coaches for a longer period of time, kept their general managers for a longer period of time, and they identified early enough their core players and they extended them. The football staff has done a great job of identifying the players that can help us and keep them.’’

The salary cap also was a factor in the Falcons’ approach to the offseason. Pursuing Williams or some other big names in free agency would have meant sacrificing continuity. The only key player the Falcons lost was middle linebacker Curtis Lofton -- and that was a calculated loss. Lofton wanted a lot of money and Atlanta placed a limit on his value. If the Falcons had made just one or two big free-agency moves and kept Lofton, guys like Abraham, McClure, DeCoud, Douglas and Snelling wouldn’t be on the roster. The team would have had to cut other players to free up cap room. The Falcons could have made a splash, but it would have left them with all sorts of holes.

“What you have to look at is, this is not like baseball,’’ Blank said. “There are limits. This is real money and not monopoly money … one of the beauties in the NFL is that in July and August fans of every team think their team has a chance to go to the playoffs or to go to the Super Bowl and win it. The salary-cap system forces you to make some tough choices. Thomas and Smitty and their staffs made these choices because they believe they were the ones that will give us the biggest bang for the buck going forward. I certainly tested their logic and asked questions, but I think their plan was all very sound and well-formulated.’’

Like it or not, Blank is putting his team (the one chosen by Smith and Dimitroff) on the field this fall. You might not like it now and that’s fine with Blank. He thinks you’ll like it a lot more as the season goes along.

» AFC Free-Agency Primer: East | West | North | South » NFC: East | West | North | South

Free agency begins Tuesday at 4 p.m. ET

Atlanta Falcons

Key free agents: CB Brent Grimes (franchise tag), LB Curtis Lofton, DE John Abraham, WR Harry Douglas and C Todd McClure.

Where they stand: The Falcons put the franchise tag on Grimes but would like to sign him to a long-term contract. That would improve a salary-cap situation that’s already decent. Keeping Lofton and Douglas, who have been developed by the current coaching staff, is also likely to be a priority. Although Abraham led the team with 9.5 sacks last season, his age and salary expectations work against the possibility of his return. Unless Abraham’s price tag drops significantly, the Falcons seem likely to let him walk. McClure could opt to retire. But if he wants to play, it’s likely the Falcons would welcome him back.

What to expect: After a quick and embarrassing exit from the postseason, owner Arthur Blank made it very clear that simply making the playoffs isn’t good enough. Blank expects to contend for a Super Bowl title. The Falcons went all in last year when they traded up to draft receiver Julio Jones and paid big money to free-agent defensive end Ray Edwards. Look for them to take a similar approach this year. The Falcons are usually good for at least one major move an offseason, and this year we could see two or three. Don’t be surprised if the Falcons go hard after Houston linebacker Mario Williams because they need a pass-rusher to replace Abraham. Without a first-round pick, the Falcons also probably will use free agency to fill a big need at left tackle. There aren’t a lot of options, but tackle Marcus McNeill could be a target if he is released, as expected, by the Chargers. The Falcons could even make a play for New Orleans guard Carl Nicks. His presence would make life easier for any left tackle, and pulling him away from the Saints also would weaken a division rival.

Carolina Panthers

Key free agents: TE Jeremy Shockey, LB Dan Connor, G Geoff Hangartner, LB/DL Antwan Applewhite and QB Derek Anderson.

Where they stand: The Panthers seem to be uncertain whether Shockey plans to retire or keep playing. If he wants to play, they’d gladly take him back because he’s a nice complement to Greg Olsen. They also are likely to make a strong attempt to keep Hangartner, who did a nice job after Carolina had several guards injured last preseason. It’s similar with Applewhite, who was signed during the season and made nice contributions. But the Panthers seem prepared to let Connor test free agency because they can’t promise him playing time with Jon Beason returning from injury as the starting middle linebacker. Anderson could return, but the Panthers likely will at least explore the possibility of looking for an upgrade as Cam Newton’s backup.

What to expect: Don’t expect a lot. The Panthers had their big splurge coming out of the lockout last summer, and they’re paying the tab for that now. They will have to release players and restructure contracts just to get below the cap before free agency starts. Linebacker Thomas Davis, who is coming off his third torn ACL, is a prime candidate for release or restructure. Although the team clearly wants to improve its defense, don’t look for any major moves in free agency. The team simply doesn’t have the cap room to make any big deals. The team might sign a midlevel free agent or two, but major upgrades will have to come through the draft.

New Orleans Saints

Key free agents: QB Drew Brees (franchise tag), G Carl Nicks, WR Marques Colston, CB Tracy Porter and WR Robert Meachem.

Where they stand: The past three years have been the most peaceful and prosperous in franchise history. But the peaceful part already has ended this offseason. In addition to getting into trouble with the NFL for a bounty program, the Saints are dealing with contract issues that are beyond challenging. They used the franchise tag on Brees and that’s going to cost them around $15 million. Even if they do reach a long-term agreement with Brees, his cap figure for this year could climb above $15 million. Either way, the Saints are going to have major cap issues. They’ve already restructured the contract of defensive end Will Smith and may do the same with linebacker Jonathan Vilma or perhaps even release him and some veterans. The Saints are going to have so much cap space tied up in Brees that they’ll have a hard time keeping their other free agents. Nicks would seem to be the priority with Colston close behind. But keeping even one of them would be a victory for the Saints.

What to expect: General manager Mickey Loomis always has been aggressive and daring, and he might have to be even more creative than usual because of the cap situation. The Saints simply aren’t the type of team to sit still. They had flaws exposed in a playoff loss to San Francisco, and they’re asking new coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to fix their defense. The problem there is a lot of the current personnel doesn’t fit all that well in Spagnuolo’s scheme. Loomis needs to find a way to get at least one more pass-rusher up front and needs to add an athletic linebacker or two. He also may have to fill more needs if the Saints lose as many free agents as most expect. This team lacks a first-round pick in the draft, so Loomis will have to make some big moves when it comes to releasing players or restructuring contracts just to give the Saints a shot at being a little bit active in free agency.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Key free agents: K Connor Barth (franchise tag), CB Ronde Barber, RB Earnest Graham, LB Geno Hayes, S Sean Jones, DE Michael Bennett (restricted) and RB LeGarrette Blount (exclusive rights).

Where they stand: The Bucs begin coach Greg Schiano’s tenure in a unique situation. They’ve got a ton of cap room and need improvement in lots of areas. But they’ll deal with what they have between now and the start of free agency. A decision on Barber probably will come very soon. Schiano has indicated he’d like the veteran back, but Barber could choose to retire, which also would create a major need at cornerback. That position also could be an issue later in March when starting cornerback Aqib Talib is scheduled for trial on an assault charge. Talib could go to prison or face a suspension from the NFL, but his fate will be unknown at the start of free agency. Hayes didn’t have a great season last year, but he has upside, and the new staff might want to keep him. The Bucs are likely to let Graham walk because of his age. A return by Jones is possible at a reasonable salary, but the Bucs still need to look to upgrade at safety.

What to expect: The exact amount will depend on how many of their free agents are brought back, but the Bucs are likely to have somewhere around $50 million in cap space at the start of free agency and that will put them near the top of the league. After barely dipping into free agency last year, the Bucs were able to carry over extra cap room, and general manager Mark Dominik has publicly said the team plans to be more active in free agency. But fans need to keep that in perspective. The Bucs aren’t going to suddenly return to the days when Jon Gruden and Bruce Allen regularly shelled out money for big-name players in their 30s. The Bucs started a youth movement three years ago, and there are some parts in place. Now, it’s time for them to supplement those parts. They’ll be active in free agency, but they’ll be focusing on players still in their 20s. They’ll also be focusing on improving the supporting cast of quarterback Josh Freeman, who they believe can become great. Look for them to add a speed receiver, perhaps someone like Mario Manningham (Giants) or Eddie Royal (Broncos). The Bucs also want to improve at running back, where Blount is a one-dimensional power runner. They could look for a pass-catching specialist or opt to look for a complete back who could even replace Blount as the starter. On defense, the Bucs probably will try to upgrade at linebacker. If Barber and/or Talib aren’t back, the Bucs will have to make a move or two at cornerback and probably wouldn’t hesitate to pay big money to someone such as Cortland Finnegan (Titans).