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The title of a project on the division blogs this week is “Dream/Nightmare scenarios’’ for each NFL team. When I first received the instructions, I called my boss.

I asked about the possibility of taking it one step further. I asked if I could write about the nightmare of all nightmares.

Let’s be clear: It’s not something that I think will happen. But nightmares, after all, are supposed to be the worst thing you can concoct. And there’s one remotely possible scenario in the NFC South that would go way beyond the run-of-the-mill nightmare scenario I cooked up in the team post on the Saints.

What if quarterback Drew Brees doesn’t get a long-term deal and somehow ends up sitting out the entire 2012 season?

If you’re a New Orleans Saints fan, this is where your stage of sleep goes from just dozing off to the start of the worst nightmare ever. This is where all the good feeling Brees has brought to New Orleans since 2006, and especially since the start of the 2009 season, disappears. This is where the Saints go from being the elite team they’ve been the past few years back to the mediocrity that was their trademark through almost their entire previous existence. This is where Chase Daniel takes the first snap of the season at home against the Washington Redskins on Sept. 9 and starts through the regular-season finale Dec. 30 at home against Carolina.

This is the land of 8-8, or maybe even 6-10.

Unlikely? Highly. I still believe Brees will sign a long-term contract, straighten out what’s been a mess of an offseason for the Saints and carry the team to another postseason berth, no matter how many coaches and other players are suspended.

But with each day that passes without Brees having that long-term deal, Saints fans must start worrying a little bit more. Brees carries the franchise tag, and the deadline for him to finalize a long-term contract is July 16. If he doesn’t have a deal by then, he has only one option -- sign the franchise tag and play for a little more than $16 million this season.

Wait, there is actually a second option. Brees could just decide to sit out the season.

Public perception is that Brees never would do that because he’s such a competitor. I’m not here to rain on Brees’ public perception. My experience around him leads me to believe he is what he’s perceived to be -- and that’s not true of all the people I cover. Brees really is a fierce competitor.

But that’s part of the problem. It’s hard to say exactly what he would do if the deadline passed with no deal. At this point, Brees himself might not even know what he would do. But my impression of him leads me to believe there’s at least the possibility he could feel like he has been wronged by the Saints and could swing back as strongly as possible.

Brees has made it clear he despises the idea of playing without any long-term security, so maybe he just doesn’t play. That would be beyond disastrous for the franchise.

This team might have lost its mastermind when head coach Sean Payton was suspended, but I think the Saints could go on nicely with Brees around. If he’s not, this team loses its heart, soul and at least as many games (eight) as it did the past two seasons combined.

Take Brees away from the Saints and you have the Jacksonville Jaguars. Wait, at least the Jaguars have Blaine Gabbert. Yeah, he was terrible as a rookie, but there were at least some reasons why he was a first-round draft pick.

Daniel, who was undrafted in 2009, has completed only six passes in his NFL career. Some people like to say Daniel is the second coming of Brees. He's not. The only things Brees and Daniel have in common are that they’re short by NFL quarterback standards and know the Saints’ playbook. Brees is a once-in-a-lifetime talent. Daniel might look fine in preseason games when he’s plugged into Payton’s system. But start him over an entire regular season, especially one in which Payton isn’t around, and you’ll get a quick reminder of why teams generally avoid quarterbacks who are 6 feet or shorter.

Daniel doesn’t have Brees’ arm, experience in the offense or his magic. Yeah, I know there’s a school of thought that says you could throw any quarterback out there with the likes of Jimmy Graham, Darren Sproles, Marques Colston, Devery Henderson and Lance Moore and he’d do just fine.

I don’t buy it. Daniel could get the Saints through a game or two (maybe a little more if Payton were around) if Brees were banged up. Brees could get the Saints through a season without Payton.

But Payton’s not going to be around. If, somehow, Brees joins him, the Saints suddenly would become a team with a defense that might or might not be average, some good skill-position players on offense and no threat at quarterback.

That sounds like a formula for instant mediocrity -- and a huge nightmare for a franchise and a fan base that has gotten very used to winning big.

There’s been a lot of speculation that all the offseason turmoil is going to cause the New Orleans Saints to crumble.

I’m not buying that at all. Neither are the other three NFC South teams.

Just take a look at what the Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have done this offseason. I think you can look at every major move they’ve made and see they all have a common root. Everything the Falcons, Panthers and Bucs have done is at least partially designed to counter the team that has won the NFC South two of the last three seasons.

Yes, you can take suspended coach Sean Payton away from the Saints for the season, but you can’t take Payton’s influence out of an offense that put up record-setting numbers and has been piling up points since his arrival in 2006. Offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael Jr. simply will pick up the remote control, hit a button, and Drew Brees will start throwing deep for Marques Colston, Devery Henderson and Lance Moore and dumping off shorter passes to Darren Sproles and Jimmy Graham and letting them do their damage in open space.

And, yes, middle linebacker Jonathan Vilma is suspended for the season and defensive end Will Smith will be suspended for the first four games. But the Saints may be better off with former Atlanta middle linebacker Curtis Lofton than they were with Vilma, who was slowed by knee problems last year. New defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is putting together successful and consistent defenses. If he can do that in New Orleans, the Saints could be every bit as good -- or better -- than they have been in recent seasons.

The rest of the NFC South knows it and has acted accordingly.

The Panthers and Bucs are generally viewed as teams on the rise, but they still have a long way to go to catch the Saints. The Falcons have been good the last four years, but they haven’t been able to overtake the Saints as the division’s dominant team.

Everybody’s still chasing the Saints, particularly Sproles and Graham, who each present unique matchup problems. That’s because Graham isn’t the typical tight end and Sproles is unlike any other running back. Graham’s a former basketball player, who had 99 catches for 1,310 yards and 11 touchdowns last season – his first full season as a starter.

Sproles joined the Saints last season and Payton figured out more ways to use him than the Chargers ever did. Sproles had a career-best 603 rushing yards, while sharing carries with Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram and Chris Ivory. Sproles isn’t just a running back. He sometimes lines up at wide receiver or in the slot and caught 86 passes last season for 710 yards and seven touchdowns.

It’s safe to say Sproles and Graham are a big part of the reason Carolina used its first-round draft pick on linebacker Luke Kuechly. Even with Jon Beason and Thomas Davis coming back from injuries that kept them out most of last season, the Panthers still craved another linebacker with the speed to stay with Graham for brief stretches and bring some hope of sometimes being able to bring down Sproles before he can accelerate in empty space. Carolina showed some offensive life with the arrival of Cam Newton last season and the Panthers are going to score their share of points.

But they know they have to slow the New Orleans offense to have any shot at winning the division.

It’s kind of a similar story in Tampa Bay. The Bucs used the No. 7 overall pick in the draft on Alabama strong safety Mark Barron. They then used a second-round pick on Nebraska linebacker Lavonte David. Barron’s known as a big hitter and has the size to potentially cover Graham and the speed to potentially chase Sproles. The Bucs have a similar vision for David, who is known for his quickness.

In some ways, Atlanta’s offseason also was spent on trying to counter Sproles and Graham. They let Lofton depart as a free agent, mainly because he wasn’t viewed as a three-down player in the scheme being put in by new defensive coordinator Mike Nolan. The Falcons would rather let outside linebackers Sean Weatherspoon and Stephen Nicholas stay on the field every down and try to stay with Sproles and Graham.

But Atlanta’s offseason went beyond dealing with just Sproles and Graham. When teams have had success keeping those two in check, they usually pay for it by getting burned by Brees throwing deep to Colston, Henderson and Moore.

The Falcons have had first-hand experience with that in the past. That’s why one of the first things Nolan said upon taking the job is that he believes it’s necessary to have three starting-caliber cornerbacks. That wasn’t just idle talk. The Falcons laid low through free agency, but just before the NFL draft, they went out and traded with Philadelphia for Pro Bowl cornerback Asante Samuel. Throw him on the field with Dunta Robinson and Brent Grimes and the Falcons at least have a chance against Brees and the deep game.

The gap between the Falcons and Saints isn’t as big as it is for the Panthers and Bucs. That’s a reason why the Falcons were able to go one step further and address an area where they might be able to exploit one of New Orleans’ few weaknesses. The Saints aren’t known for having a dominating defensive line. The Falcons went out and drafted Peter Konz, who they plan to use at guard, and offensive tackle Lamar Holmes. The Falcons want to get younger and more athletic on the offensive line. They want to give quarterback Matt Ryan an opportunity to throw downfield more often.

Ryan will probably never get the chance to put up Brees-like numbers, but the Falcons are looking at every way possible to pull closer to the Saints.

So is the rest of the NFC South. Despite everything that's happened with New Orleans in recent months, the Falcons, Panthers and Bucs are still looking like they're chasing the Saints.

This is the time of year when you hear a lot about offseason workouts. This is when teams can begin conditioning drills and get out onto the field to start working on football and that continues through minicamps and organized team activities.

It’s a great time to build chemistry. You’ll also hear a lot of coaches bragging about how almost all their players are participating in the workouts, which is great. But, in some cases, there’s a lot of money to be earned just for showing up and working out in the offseason.

I just got a look at all the offseason workout bonuses scheduled to be earned (if the players take part in a majority of the workouts) by NFC South players this year and there were some eye openers. Tampa Bay general manager Mark Dominik doesn’t use a lot of workout bonuses in the contracts he negotiates. But, when he does use them, they’re significant. Tight end Kellen Winslow and cornerback Eric Wright have the largest workout bonuses in the division for 2012 at $500,000 each. Offensive tackle Donald Penn is right behind them at $400,000 and defensive tackle Gerald McCoy is scheduled to collect $300,000. Linebacker Quincy Black has a $250,000 bonus and defensive tackle Amobi Okoye is slated to make $200,000. Those six are the only Buccaneers with workout bonuses this year, but they come to a total of $2.15 million.

Carolina general manager Marty Hurney and New Orleans general manager Mickey Loomis are much more liberal in their use of workout bonuses. The Saints and Panthers each have 21 players scheduled to earn workout bonuses this year.

Carolina’s scheduled workout bonuses add up to $2.055 million. I won’t list anyone under six figures. But here are the guys who can earn big money. Charles Johnson, Jon Beason, DeAngelo Williams, Ryan Kalil and Ron Edwards each are scheduled to make $250,000. Charles Godfrey, James Anderson, Olindo Mare and Garry Williams each can earn $100,000.

If all the New Orleans players take part in enough workouts, the Saints will have to pay out $2.381 million. Sedrick Ellis leads the Saints with a $250,000 workout bonus. Jahri Evans, Lance Moore and Scott Shanle each are scheduled to make $200,000 and Will Smith is slated to make $150,000. Marques Colston, Roman Harper, Jabari Greer, Jermon Bushrod, Jonathan Vilma, Malcolm Jenkins, Devery Henderson, Pierre Thomas, David Thomas, Korey Hall and Will Herring each are scheduled to make $100,000.

Apparently, Atlanta’s Thomas Dimitroff, who probably works out more (he rides a bike religiously) than any NFC South general manager, doesn’t believe in workout bonuses. Dimitroff has used them very sparingly in the past. This year, there’s not a single Atlanta player schedule to earn a workout bonus.

Now, that the NFL draft is over, let’s have some fun. Let’s start looking ahead to next season with team-by-team looks at what I project as the opening day lineups for each of the four NFC South teams.

Let’s start with the New Orleans Saints, who might not have any rookies open the season as starters because they didn’t have a draft pick until the third round. Also, let’s keep in mind that the Saints could be dealing with some suspensions from their bounty program. We won’t speculate on possible suspensions. We’ll just go with the depth chart as I see it now and I’ll throw in comments where there could be competition.

OFFENSE

• QB Drew Brees (assuming his contract situation gets straightened out)
• RB Pierre Thomas (you can also count Darren Sproles as a starter)
• FB Jed Collins
• WR Marques Colston
• WR Devery Henderson (Lance Moore will play as much as the starters)
• TE Jimmy Graham
• LT Jermon Bushrod
• LG Ben Grubbs
• C Brian de la Puente
• RG Jahri Evans
• RT Zach Strief

DEFENSE

• DE Will Smith
• DT Sedrick Ellis
• DT Brodrick Bunkley
• DE Cameron Jordan
• LB Curtis Lofton
• LB Jonathan Vilma (it remains to be seen if Vilma or Lofton will play in the middle)
• LB Scott Shanle
• CB Jabari Greer
• CB Patrick Robinson
• FS Malcolm Jenkins
• SS Roman Harper

SPECIALISTS

• K Garrett Hartley (assuming he wins training camp competition with John Kasay)
• P Thomas Morstead
• PR Darren Sproles
• KR Darren Sproles

The fourth round is just about over. It's down to the compensatory picks and those can't be traded, so this round will end with only three picks made by NFC South teams.

But this still was a relatively eventful round for the division. Carolina was the star in this round as the Panthers used back-to-back picks to get Oklahoma defensive end Frank Alexander and Arkansas receiver Joe Adams. I don’t think either is a candidate to start right away, but they give the Panthers some depth at positions where they needed depth.

Charles Johnson is Carolina’s big threat at defensive end and Greg Hardy hasn’t really produced the way the Panthers had hoped. They still have hope Hardy will emerge, but Alexander provides another option behind him.

I like the Adams pick even more. Carolina has one certainty at receiver. That’s Steve Smith. After that, the Panthers are hoping Brandon LaFell can continue to develop and David Gettis can come back strong from last year’s season-ending injury. But there are no guarantees LaFell and Gettis will become stars, so it makes sense to add another guy to this mix. Adams could end up being used as a slot receiver fairly early on. He has the potential to be explosive and, with Cam Newton’s arm, the Panthers could use someone besides Smith that can get open down the field.

Speaking of wide receivers, the Saints got one with the only other NFC South pick in the fourth round. They took Wisconsin’s Nick Toon. A lack of top end speed and questions about his durability are the main reasons Toon slid to the fourth round. But this is a polished player from a big-time program. In New Orleans’ offense, wide receivers tend to produce more than their draft status would suggest. Just look at what Marques Colston and Lance Moore have done.

The Saints did lose Robert Meachem in free agency. They still have Colston, Moore and Devery Henderson. Toon should have a chance to compete with Adrian Arrington for the fourth receiver spot.

Let's take a look at the Friday morning headlines from around the NFC South.

Jeff Duncan writes that it should come as no surprise that the Saints are painting former defensive coordinator Gregg Williams as a rogue coach in their bounty scandal. He’s right. It was obvious from the start that head coach Sean Payton and Williams were not tight. Payton hired Williams as a desperate act. He needed someone to get production out of his defense. It worked well for one season and not so well for the final two. The whole time, Payton and Williams were clashing. But I have a tough time buying that Payton didn’t know about the bounty program that ran for three seasons. Payton knows everything that goes on with the Saints. The NFL report announcing the punishments even expressly stated that assistant head coach/linebackers coach Joe Vitt was responsible for keeping an eye on Williams and letting Payton know what was going on with the defense.

Ashley Fox writes that Williams should never coach in the NFL again. I don’t think you’ll find many people willing to argue that point right now.

San Francisco receiver Kyle Williams was mentioned by Gregg Williams as a specific target for injury by the Saints. The receivers father, Kenny Williams, is the general manager of the Chicago White Sox and he issued a statement in which he said “it’s probably best I’m never in a room with Gregg Williams."

Former Falcons coach Bobby Petrino has been placed on administrative leave by the University of Arkansas for not disclosing all the details surrounding his recent motorcycle accident.

After it was recently reported that LSU cornerback Morris Claiborne, a possible target for Tampa Bay at No. 5 in the draft, posted a low Wonderlic score, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell has told all 32 teams to keep the scores confidential or they could end up facing disciplinary action.

Louisiana-Lafayette tight end Ladarius Green recently visited with Tampa Bay. He also said he may visit with the Falcons and Saints. It’s fair to say that all four NFC South teams could be looking to add a backup tight end in the draft.

New Orleans receiver Lance Moore said quarterback Drew Brees should be signed to a long-term contract soon. He’s right. I know the Saints are dealing with some other things right now. But taking care of Brees and making him happy might be the most important move they can make this offseason.

The Buccaneers reportedly are showing some interest in free-agent defensive tackles Amobi Okoye and Derek Landri. It’s pretty obvious the Bucs are simply looking for some depth in their rotation at defensive tackle. They already have Gerald McCoy, Brian Price and Roy Miller. But McCoy and Price have had injury problems, so it wouldn’t hurt to add one more guy to the rotation and the price tags for Okoye and Landri aren’t likely to be that high. The Bucs could make a move before the draft. But it also is possible they’ll wait and see if Okoye, Landri or another defensive tackle with experience still is available after the draft.

PALM BEACH, Fla. – Very quietly, the New Orleans Saints have restructured a pair of contracts to free up about $2.3 million in salary-cap room.

According to contract details obtained by ESPN.com, the Saints restructured the contracts of wide receiver Lance Moore and cornerback Patrick Robinson in recent days. The moves put the Saints at $3.285 million under the salary cap, but that’s not counting the new contracts signed by linebacker Curtis Lofton on Saturday night and linebacker Chris Chamberlain on Friday night. Those deals are expected to be turned in to the league Monday.

It’s possible that Lofton’s deal is structured in such a way that the Saints might not have to make any other moves before turning in his contract. The Saints recently signed defensive tackle Brodrick Bunkley to a very cap-friendly deal by giving him a low base salary this season, but including a large signing bonus that’s prorated over the life of his contract. Bunkley’s cap figure for this year is $1.6 million. Chamberlain’s total contract and cap figure for this year aren’t likely to be too large because he’s been a backup most of his career.

The Saints dropped Moore’s cap figure for this year from $4.3 million to $2.9 million. Moore didn’t lose any money. His base salary was dropped from $2 million to $825,000, but he made that up by receiving a $1.175 million signing bonus that will be prorated over the life of the contract.

Robinson’s cap figured dropped from $2.9 million to $2.06 million. That was accomplished by turning a $1.267 million roster bonus into a signing bonus that Robinson received up front. Instead of counting the full $1.267 million against this year’s cap, that number now is spread over the three remaining seasons on his contract.

The news that Randy Moss is working out for the New Orleans Saints is big, simply because names don’t come much bigger when it comes to wide receivers.

But I don’t know that a 35-year-old wide receiver who was out of football last season is suddenly going to come in and carry the Saints to a Super Bowl title. I don’t even know if the Saints actually will sign Moss.

What’s happening here is the Saints are looking at possibilities. That’s not a bad idea because they could be losing top receiver Marques Colston when free agency starts next week. They also could lose Robert Meachem, who, while not as prolific as Colston, has become an important cog in the Saints’ rotation of wide receivers.

Moss is worth a look. If he has anything left, he becomes an option if Colston and/or Meachem depart. Like Colston and Meachem, Moss is a taller wide receiver and could pair nicely with shorter receivers Lance Moore and Devery Henderson.

But Moss isn’t a carbon copy of Colston. In his best days -- and it’s been a while since Moss was at the top of his game (2009 in New England was his last good season) -- he wasn’t the same style of receiver as Colston. Moss was a long-striding receiver who could get open deep. Colston has never been that kind of player. But Colston’s real value to the Saints has been in the midlevel passing game. He has dependable hands and his size has allowed him to make a big impact over the middle.

But the reality is that New Orleans’ cap situation could make it impossible for the Saints to keep Colston. Moss likely would come at a cheap price.

The question that’s always been associated with Moss has been, is he worth the trouble, at any price? As we all know, Moss’ enormous talent often has been overshadowed by his behavior. At just about every one of his stops, Moss has gained a reputation for being selfish and not a great influence in the locker room.

But if the Saints lose Colston and Moss shows in his workout that he has some physical skills left, I say go ahead and sign him.

The Saints have taken shots on guys with less-than-stellar reputations in the past and that often has worked out. That’s because the Saints have a different locker room than most teams. They have a locker room that’s run with an iron hand by quarterback Drew Brees.

There’s an unwritten rule in New Orleans that nobody messes with Brees, and everyone in the locker room is held accountable by the quarterback. A lot of people said tight end Jeremy Shockey would be a problem when the Saints brought him in a few years back.

Shockey had pushed Giants quarterback Eli Manning all around when the two were together in New York. But Shockey’s time in New Orleans was relatively peaceful. That’s because Shockey knew he wouldn’t be there long if he crossed Brees or didn’t work up to the standards expected by the quarterback.

It can work the same way with Moss.

The New Orleans Saints will work out veteran receiver Randy Moss, according to Kristian Garic of WWL Radio.

It’s not known when the workout will take place, but the Saints can sign Moss at any time because he was out of the NFL last season. At the very least, consider this a sign that the Saints are looking at Moss as a possible option if receiver Marques Colston leaves when free agency starts next week.

That’s a real possibility because the Saints are expected to have minimal cap room and also could lose receiver Robert Meachem.

Like Colston and Meachem, Moss is a big target. The other top receivers remaining on the roster, Lance Moore and Devery Henderson, are smaller receivers. The Saints traditionally have liked to give quarterback Drew Brees a mixture of big and small receivers.

The man who made the New Orleans Saints could end up breaking them.

Drew Brees arrived in 2006 as the Saints and the city of New Orleans were still dealing with the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. He brought instant credibility, an explosive brand of offense and sustained success for a franchise that had been hapless through most of its existence. He also played a vital role in rebuilding New Orleans and the Gulf South region.

Now, the price tag on all that is coming due. Brees is scheduled to become a free agent on March 13. He and the Saints are negotiating, but reports indicate the two sides remain far apart. That in itself is a little unbelievable because the parameters of this deal are obvious. Brees deserves to be the highest-paid player in NFL history.

He’s coming off a year in which he set the NFL record for passing yards in a season (5,476), and he should get at least as much as Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, who average $18 million per year.

I have no doubt that, when all is said and done, Brees will remain with the Saints. If negotiations on a long-term deal continue to fail, the Saints will simply put the franchise tag on their franchise quarterback.

But, either way, this is when we could begin to see the beginning of the end of the Saints as we know them.

They’re not going to be the same team they were last season when they went 13-3. They might not even be the same team they were in 2010 when they went 11-5. And they certainly aren’t going to be the same team they were in the magical 2009 season when they won the Super Bowl.

They’ll have the same quarterback, and that’s a great start. But the economics of his contract mean the Saints aren’t going to have the same quality of players at a lot of other positions. That’s not Brees’ fault, or the team’s fault. It’s simply reality in the modern NFL.

By the time next season rolls around and everything has shaken out, the Saints could be taking several steps back. They’ll still have a high-powered offense because they’ll have Brees, Darren Sproles and Jimmy Graham, but that offense might not be quite the machine it’s been the past few seasons. That’s because some parts are going to be gone and they can’t truly be replaced.

On defense, which wasn’t an area of strength to begin with, the Saints have a new coordinator, Steve Spagnuolo, who needs new pieces to execute his scheme. He’s not going to be able to get all he needs -- at least not this offseason.

So you’re looking at an offense that probably will be a notch or two below what it’s been in recent seasons. And you’re looking at a defense that’s probably going to be far from dominant.

Gee, that sounds pretty much like the Saints were in 2007 and ’08. They scored a lot of points, but the offense wasn’t quite perfect. The defense was far below perfect. That added up to mediocre seasons that didn’t end in trips to the playoffs.

That could be what the Saints face in 2012.

We haven’t even seen the full fallout yet, but we can start looking ahead and, no matter how you slice it, it’s tough to paint a pretty picture.

Brees isn’t the only big-name free agent the Saints have, but he’s the only one they’re absolutely sure to keep. The same can’t be said for guard Carl Nicks and wide receiver Marques Colston. It definitely can’t be said for receiver Robert Meachem and cornerback Tracy Porter, who aren’t on the Nicks/Colston level have been valuable contributors.

At absolute best, the Saints will be able to sign Brees and then place the franchise tag on either Nicks or Colston. At worst, they use the franchise tag on Brees, while Colston and Nicks both walk.

You don’t replace Nicks. He’s the best guard in the NFL and he may be just hitting his prime. Although the Saints have another very good guard in Jahri Evans, they no longer would have the unquestioned best guard tandem in the NFL.

Without Nicks, Brees would lose his best protector. Any quarterback, even Brees, isn’t quite as good when he’s getting pressured (think back to last season’s stunning loss to St. Louis).

Colston probably isn't on his way to the Hall of Fame, but he’s been Brees’ favorite target since they joined forces in 2006. Colston has had 1,000-yard receiving seasons in five of his six years. He’s a big target who isn't afraid to go over the middle. Take him away and take Meachem away, and the Saints would still have Lance Moore, Devery Henderson and Adrian Arrington. Moore and Henderson are nice, experienced receivers, but they don’t do the things Colston does.

And when you’ve got no cap room to sign free agents and no first-round draft pick, where are you going to get a receiver who does anything close to what Colston does? And where are you going to get a guard who is anywhere near as good as Nicks?

So let’s subtract a few points a game from the Saints’ offense going forward. And we’re only just beginning to talk about a defense that could end up giving up more points than it has in recent seasons.

This defense isn’t loaded with talent and we soon could see subtraction by subtraction. This salary-cap jam almost certainly will force the Saints to let Porter walk. That’s not that big a deal. The Saints have a top-flight corner in Jabari Greer, and it’s pretty apparent they’ve been preparing for Porter’s eventual departure by drafting Patrick Robinson and Johnny Patrick in recent years.

But the cost of keeping Brees, and maybe Nicks or Colston, means it’s almost certain the Saints are going to have to trim some cap room by releasing some prominent defensive players or at least restructuring their contracts.

Middle linebacker Jonathan Vilma and defensive end Will Smith are likely the top two targets for that. Although both are aging and Vilma is coming off a knee injury, those two have been New Orleans’ defensive leaders throughout coach Sean Payton’s tenure. Take Vilma away from a group of linebackers that’s ordinary, and you’ve got a group of linebackers that’s less than ordinary. And you're without the next guy in the leadership chain after Brees.

Again, the Saints don’t have the currency (cap room or prime draft picks) to make major upgrades here. Take Smith away from a pass rush that hasn’t even been ordinary, and you’ve got the potential for huge problems.

Unlike predecessor Gregg Williams, whose defensive philosophy was to be opportunistic and create turnovers, Spagnuolo believes in playing more of a shutdown defense, and he likes to generate almost all of his pressure from the front four. With Smith, the Saints have one guy up front who can rush the passer. Without him, they won’t have any.

Good luck trying to find a guy in the middle rounds of the draft or a low-priced free agent who will step right in and give you double-digit sacks. Spagnuolo is a good coach and his hiring set off celebrations in New Orleans. But a coach is only as good as the players around him, and Spagnuolo is probably not going to have a great deal of defensive talent in his first year.

That could be the story of the Saints in 2012.

Keeping their quarterback would at least keep them competitive, but they won't take steps forward if their roster is wiped out and the cap situation keeps them from being rebuilt.

We still are about to weeks away from the start of free agency. But the quiet period is starting to ease a bit. With the combine wrapping up, we're starting to get a bit more news as teams prepare for free agency. Let's take a look at Tuesday's headlines.

New Orleans guard Carl Nicks said he’s having difficulty with the anxiety that comes with the uncertainty about his future. It’s not fun or even fair to Nicks to have to go through this, but the reality is he’ll probably be feeling anxious for a while longer. The Saints still haven’t worked out a long-term deal with quarterback Drew Brees. The deadline for using the franchise tag is March 5. If the Saints don’t have a deal with Brees by then, he’ll get tagged. If they do have a deal, they’ll probably try to work out a quick contract with Nicks, but there might not be enough time, and he could end up with the franchise tag. However it works out, I’m sensing some turbulent times in New Orleans. The Saints very well could lose some other free agents like receivers Marques Colston and Robert Meachem, and cornerback Tracy Porter, and they might have to cut some prominent players to keep themselves under the salary cap.

At least the Saints have a little insurance at receiver if Colston and Meachem do leave. Adrian Arrington reportedly has signed his tender as an exclusive-rights free agent. That leaves him along with Lance Moore and Devery Henderson. That means the cupboard’s not bare if Colston and Meachem escape, but I think the Saints would go out and draft a receiver or sign a free agent, because they like to use a rotation of four or five receivers.

Instead of opening on a Thursday night as it has in recent years, the 2012 season will open on Wednesday, Sept. 5 because of a conflict with the Democratic National Convention. The New York Giants will host that game. Their opponent isn’t known yet. But looking at their list of home opponents, it’s not a stretch to jump to the conclusion they’ll host either the Saints or Packers in the opener.

With the new collective bargaining agreement, offseason programs are going to look a lot different than in the past. The Falcons won’t start their offseason workouts until April 23, coach Mike Smith said. That’s more than a month later than the team started in past years. But the ground rules are the same for all teams.

A day after saying he was 75 percent sure he’d be leaving the New York Giants as a free agent, receiver Mario Manningham adjusted those odds to 50-50. Manningham also downplayed a report that he could be headed to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That’s all Manningham can realistically do at this point, because free agency hasn’t started. But, if he does become a free agent, there’s likely to be more media speculation about him joining the Bucs. That’s because Tampa Bay offensive coordinator Mike Sullivan was an assistant with the Giants and coached receivers at one point. That the Bucs could use better production at receiver also is going to fuel speculation about Manningham as a possibility for Tampa Bay.

Here's some audio of me discussing free agency and the Bucs (and a little bit on the Saints) with ESPN Florida Radio's Tom Krasniqi.

His 2011 season wasn’t as spectacular as his 2010 rookie campaign, but Tampa Bay’s Mike Williams still was on the field more frequently than any other NFC South wide receiver.

Williams took part in 94.5 percent of Tampa Bay’s offensive snaps. He was on the field for 965 of Tampa Bay’s 1,021 offensive plays.

Carolina’s Steve Smith and Atlanta’s Roddy White each played more snaps, but came up short of the percentage of plays Williams was in for. Williams’ percentage of playing time ranked No. 4 in the NFL.

Smith ranked No. 7 in the NFL, taking part in 91.4 percent of Carolina’s snaps. He was on the field for 956 of Carolina’s 1,046 plays. White was involved in 90.5 percent of Atlanta’s offensive plays. He was on the field for 1,020 of Atlanta’s 1,227 offensive snaps.

Let’s take a look at some other NFC South receivers and the playing time they got in 2011:

• Legedu Naanee, Panthers: 70.8 percent.

• Brandon LaFell, Panthers, 65.9 percent.

• Robert Meachem, Saints, 64.4 percent.

• Devery Henderson, Saints, 62.8 percent.

• Julio Jones, Falcons, 62.6 percent.

• Marques Colston, Saints, 57.2 percent.

• Harry Douglas, Falcons, 55.4 percent.

• Arrelious Benn, Buccaneers, 49.2 percent.

• Dezmon Briscoe, Buccaneers, 46.6 percent.

• Preston Parker, Buccaneers, 45.6 percent.

• Lance Moore, Saints, 36 percent.

• Eric Weems, Falcons, 24.1 percent.

• Sammie Stroughter, Buccaneers, 6.66 percent.

• Micheal Spurlock, Buccaneers, 4.7 percent.

• Seyi Ajirotutu, Panthers, 4.59 percent.

• Adrian Arrington, Saints, 4.51 percent.

• Kerry Meier, Falcons, 3.02 percent.

• Armanti Edwards, Panthers. 2.39 percent.

• Kealoha Pilares, Panthers, 2.01 percent.

Time for a look at the top Thursday morning headlines from around the NFC South.

It already had been reported that New Orleans offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael had been given permission to interview for the Raiders’ job as head coach. But reports also are surfacing that the Colts have interest in interviewing Carmichael after they fired Jim Caldwell. The Saints also have to find a defensive coordinator to replace Gregg Williams. The front-runner is Steve Spagnuolo, who either interviewed Wednesday or will interview Thursday (reports on his schedule have varied). They also need to find a receivers coach to replace Curtis Johnson, who has left to become head coach at Tulane.

New Orleans receiver Lance Moore missed the final three games, including the playoff loss to San Francisco, with a hamstring injury. Moore discusses his disappointment about the San Francisco result and on not being able to play in that game.

We told you Wednesday that new Atlanta defensive coordinator Mike Nolan plans to stick with the 4-3 scheme. But Knox Bardeen adds a little more to Nolan’s future plans. Nolan said the Falcons might use the nickel package more often, because offenses are passing more frequently.

The proposed budget by Georgia Governor Nathan Deal includes $15 million for a land purchase, and a local official says that money could be used to buy the land where a new outdoor stadium for the Falcons could be built.

The Bucs don’t have a new coaching staff yet, so they have only their scouting staff working the practices for the East-West Shrine Game. A general manager for another NFC South team said that’s not unusual, that these practices are generally watched by scouting staffs and a few general managers. But most coaching staffs attend next week’s Senior Bowl in their entirety. There’s no guarantee the Bucs will have a new coach before the Senior Bowl. Even if they do, it’s almost certain he won’t have his entire staff in place in time for the Senior Bowl. Stephen Holder points out the situation puts the Tampa Bay scouts in a bit of a unique position, because they don’t know what schemes the team will be using.

Alabama cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick is a name that has been tied to the Panthers with the No. 8 or 9 (depending on a coin flip) in the upcoming NFL draft. But Kirkpatrick reportedly was charged recently with marijuana possession. Could that change his stock with the Panthers? For years, Carolina went out of its way to avoid players who had off-field problems. That changed a bit last season after the departure of coach John Fox. The Panthers took a chance on cornerback Brandon Hogan, who had some off-field issues, in the fourth-round last year. But there’s a big difference when you’re talking about first-round picks and fourth-round picks. As long as owner Jerry Richardson and general manager Marty Hurney are running the show, I doubt you’ll see the Panthers taking chances on guys who have been in trouble, unless they fully investigate the issue and decide it’s unfounded.

There’s a bit of good news on the injury front for the New Orleans Saints. Linebacker Jonathan Casillas, who had been listed as questionable with a knee injury, is active for Saturday’s playoff game against the 49ers.

As expected, injured receiver Lance Moore (hamstring) and back up tight end John Gilmore (toe) are out.

The other inactives for the Saints are cornerback Leigh Torrence, linebacker Nate Bussey, tight end Tory Humphrey and offensive lineman Eric Olsen.

The final injury report for the Saints for Saturday’s playoff game with San Francisco is out, and the news is mixed.

Receiver Lance Moore (hamstring) will miss his second straight playoff game. The Saints can get by with Marques Colston, Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem as their first three receivers. But Moore’s absence means the Saints likely will keep Adrian Arrington active. Arrington played some last week, but he doesn’t have nearly as much experience as Moore.

Backup tight end John Gilmore (toe) also has been declared out for Saturday. Linebacker Jonathan Casillas (knee) is listed as questionable and practiced on a limited basis Friday. If Casillas can’t play, we likely will see more of Martez Wilson and Ramon Humber.

On the positive side, middle linebacker Jonathan Vilma (knee), strong safety Roman Harper (ankle) and Meachem all are listed as probable.