ESPN NFL

As we get ready for the start of free agency, let’s have some fun with numbers. Let’s turn to ESPN Stats & Information for some interesting nuggets on players that could be joining or leaving the NFC South.

• Houston defensive end Mario Williams is a player many are speculating could be a target of the Atlanta Falcons. Over the past five seasons, Williams has averaged 0.73 sacks per game. Only Dallas’ DeMarcus Ware (1.0) and Minnesota’s Jared Allen (0.99) have had better averages. Williams, who missed 11 games with an injury last season, has 13.5 sacks over the past two seasons. Ten of those have come when the Texans used four or fewer pass rushers.

• Williams’ ability to make things happen when a defense isn’t blitzing could fill a big hole in Atlanta. The Falcons likely will let veteran defensive end John Abraham depart as a free agent. Abraham’s been Atlanta’s only consistent pass rusher in recent years. Over the last two seasons, all 22.5 of Abraham’s sacks have come when the Falcons have sent four or fewer pass rushers. Only Allen (26 sacks) and Jason Babin (23.5) are ahead of Abraham in that category.

• New Orleans receiver Marques Colston can become a free agent. The Saints would like him back, but might not be able to afford him because they have limited salary-cap room. If Colston leaves, the Saints will be losing a lot. Last season, Colston came up with receptions on a league-high 76.9 percent of his targets. Since entering the NFL in 2006, Colston ranks ninth in receptions (449), eighth in receiving yards (6,240) and seventh in touchdowns (48). Colston has had five 1,000 yard seasons in his six years. Only Randy Moss has had 1,000 yards in each of his first six seasons.

• Tennessee cornerback Cortland Finnegan, who has been mentioned as a possible target for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, played all 1,142 defensive snaps the Titans had last year. Finnegan has started 42 consecutive games, the fourth-longest active streak by a cornerback. His 13 interceptions since 2008 tie him for No. 15 in the league.

• Oakland running back Michael Bush, who also has brought speculation he could be pursued by the Buccaneers, had career highs in rushes (256) and rushing yards (977) last season. But Bush’s 3.82 yard-per-carry average was the lowest in the NFL among running backs with at least 200 carries. Bush, however, was effective in short-yardage situations. When needing three or fewer yards for a first down, Bush rushed for 34 first downs. Only LeSean McCoy (47) had more.

I’m not saying it will be right or wrong, but I’m pretty sure we’re going to hear Saturday night that Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers is the Associated Press Most Valuable Player for the 2011 season.

That’s why New Orleans Saints fans might want to take the following news as a bit of a consolation prize. It was just announced in Indianapolis that New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees has been named the FedEx Air NFL Player of the Year. Philadelphia running back LeSean McCoy was named the FedEx Ground NFL Player of the Year.

In the 2011 season, Brees set a new NFL record with 5,476 passing yards as he led the Saints to a 13-3 record. As part of the award FedEx will donate $25,000 to New Orleans offices of Junior Achievement.

This marks the third time Brees has won the award. He also won in the 2008 and ’09 seasons.

Sunday’s game between the Falcons and Panthers will feature a potential mismatch in one area.

That’s Michael Turner against a Carolina run defense that has struggled all season. Things might be even worse for the Panthers now that starting defensive tackles Sione Fua and Terrell McClain are out for the rest of the season due to injuries.

But the interior of the defensive line hasn’t been the only problem for the Panthers. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Carolina has allowed 585 rushing yards outside the tackles. That’s the fourth-highest total in the NFL.

People tend to think of Turner as a between-the-tackles runner and there is validity to that. But the numbers show Turner also can run outside the tackles.

Turner has gained 345 yards when running outside the tackles. Only LeSean McCoy and Matt Forte have more yardage. Turner ranks fifth in the league with a 6.1-yard average on carries outside the tackles. He also leads the league with 189 yards after initial contact on runs outside the tackles.

The fine folks at ESPN Stats & Information just passed along some great stuff previewing both of this week’s NFC South matchups. We’ll start with the game between Tampa Bay and New Orleans and come back later with something on Carolina at Atlanta.

• One thing to keep an eye on is New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees throwing to his right. It’s something he’s excelled at this season, but the Bucs also have been very stout in defending quarterbacks passing to their right. Brees leads all NFL quarterbacks with a 72.2 percent completion rate on passes to his right and has averaged 7.4 yards per attempt. His 17 touchdown passes in that direction are tied with Peyton Manning for the league lead and he’s thrown six interceptions to his right. Brees has a 103.7 passer rating when throwing to his right. But the flip side of that is Tampa Bay’s defense has held opposing quarterbacks to a 58.6 completion percentage on passes to their right and allowed 6.0 yards per attempt. They’ve given up 10 touchdowns on those passes, but also come up with 10 interceptions and they’ve held opposing quarterbacks to a 72.2 passer rating.
• Tampa Bay quarterback Josh Freeman has been at his best when he’s on the move. Freeman ranks fourth in the NFL in passing yards and third in passer rating on throws outside the pocket. In those situations, Freeman has averaged 6.9 yards per attempt with six touchdowns and a 107.9 passer rating. On the flip side, this isn’t an area of strength for Brees, who has many other areas of strength. Brees is averaging 4.5 yards per attempt on throws outside the pocket and hasn’t thrown a touchdown while being intercepted once. His passer rating outside the pocket is 52.2.
• It’s no secret that Tampa Bay rookie LeGarrette Blount is a power runner. But let’s support that with some numbers. In the last nine games, Blount has averaged 4.8 yards per attempt on carries between the tackles. That’s second in the NFL to LeSean McCoy, who averages 5.1 yards per carry. Since Week 7, Blount has 911 rushing yards with 372 of those coming up the middle. Three of his five touchdowns in that span have come on carries up the middle.
• The Bucs haven’t had opponents throw downfield on them much this season. In fact, opponents have only attempt 87 passes of 15 yards or more. That’s the second-lowest total in the league. That probably has a lot to do with the fact the Bucs have allowed only 36.5 percent of passes to be completed in those situations, while holding opposing quarterbacks to a 49.1 passer rating. But that’s likely to change Sunday. Brees has attempted 352 passes of 15 yards or more since 2008, which ties him for fourth-most in that span. In the last 10 games, Brees has been especially good on passes of 15 yards or more. He’s thrown 10 touchdown passes, which is the most in the NFL in the last 10 games. In that same span, Brees has a 107.1 passer rating, which is the best in the league in those situations.