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Trent Dilfer, Gary Horton, Mel Kiper Jr. and Matt Williamson got together and came up with an outstanding project that looks a few years down the road. Check out this Insider post in which they have NFL Future Power Rankings for all teams.

The rankings are based on what the panel projects teams will look like in the 2015 season. The panel used the following criteria -- roster, quarterback, draft, front office and coaching staff -- and weighed each in order of importance to come up with the rankings. You can see a more detailed explanation of the methodology here.

From an NFC South perspective, the rankings don’t look all that different from results in recent years or what most people are projecting in 2012.

The panel says the New Orleans Saints, who have won two of the past three division titles, will be the division’s best team in 2015. The panel notes the bounty scandal and its punishments, but the consensus seems to be that the Saints can overcome that because there’s a strong nucleus in place, as well as a good coaching staff and front office. Horton notes the Saints have to build around guys like Jimmy Graham and Mark Ingram in the future. I think it’s true that the Saints have to develop some more young stars in the next few years. But, as long as Drew Brees is the quarterback, the Saints should be a top-10 team.

After the Saints, there’s a bit of a surprise. Although the Saints and Falcons have been the class of the division in recent years, the panel doesn’t see that quite being the case in 2015. The Falcons are No. 13 and the Panthers are No. 12.

Let’s start with why the Panthers are viewed as a team on the rise. Dilfer sums it up well by saying quarterback Cam Newton has an incredibly high ceiling. In 2015, Newton will be just approaching that ceiling. There’s no doubt the future looks bright for Carolina, but the Panthers may have to replace longtime stars Jordan Gross and Steve Smith before too long.

I disagree with the panel slightly on the placement of the Falcons. I think Atlanta will be a top-10 team in 2015 and probably each year between now and then. I agree with the panel that the Falcons have some old players at several positions, but I think general manager Thomas Dimitroff gradually will address those issues. As long as Matt Ryan and Julio Jones stay healthy and linebacker Sean Weatherspoon continues to emerge as a defensive star, I think the Falcons will be an annual playoff contender.

The Buccaneers are No. 19. While that ranking is last in the division, the Bucs have been in the 20s and 30s in a lot of recent rankings. The panel sounds optimistic about the Bucs in discussing the young talent and the new coaching staff. But there are a lot of unknowns. If quarterback Josh Freeman can get his career back on track and coach Greg Schiano can make the transition from college to the NFL, I think the Bucs have a real chance to jump up in the rankings when 2015 actually rolls around.

There’s been a lot of speculation that all the offseason turmoil is going to cause the New Orleans Saints to crumble.

I’m not buying that at all. Neither are the other three NFC South teams.

Just take a look at what the Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have done this offseason. I think you can look at every major move they’ve made and see they all have a common root. Everything the Falcons, Panthers and Bucs have done is at least partially designed to counter the team that has won the NFC South two of the last three seasons.

Yes, you can take suspended coach Sean Payton away from the Saints for the season, but you can’t take Payton’s influence out of an offense that put up record-setting numbers and has been piling up points since his arrival in 2006. Offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael Jr. simply will pick up the remote control, hit a button, and Drew Brees will start throwing deep for Marques Colston, Devery Henderson and Lance Moore and dumping off shorter passes to Darren Sproles and Jimmy Graham and letting them do their damage in open space.

And, yes, middle linebacker Jonathan Vilma is suspended for the season and defensive end Will Smith will be suspended for the first four games. But the Saints may be better off with former Atlanta middle linebacker Curtis Lofton than they were with Vilma, who was slowed by knee problems last year. New defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is putting together successful and consistent defenses. If he can do that in New Orleans, the Saints could be every bit as good -- or better -- than they have been in recent seasons.

The rest of the NFC South knows it and has acted accordingly.

The Panthers and Bucs are generally viewed as teams on the rise, but they still have a long way to go to catch the Saints. The Falcons have been good the last four years, but they haven’t been able to overtake the Saints as the division’s dominant team.

Everybody’s still chasing the Saints, particularly Sproles and Graham, who each present unique matchup problems. That’s because Graham isn’t the typical tight end and Sproles is unlike any other running back. Graham’s a former basketball player, who had 99 catches for 1,310 yards and 11 touchdowns last season – his first full season as a starter.

Sproles joined the Saints last season and Payton figured out more ways to use him than the Chargers ever did. Sproles had a career-best 603 rushing yards, while sharing carries with Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram and Chris Ivory. Sproles isn’t just a running back. He sometimes lines up at wide receiver or in the slot and caught 86 passes last season for 710 yards and seven touchdowns.

It’s safe to say Sproles and Graham are a big part of the reason Carolina used its first-round draft pick on linebacker Luke Kuechly. Even with Jon Beason and Thomas Davis coming back from injuries that kept them out most of last season, the Panthers still craved another linebacker with the speed to stay with Graham for brief stretches and bring some hope of sometimes being able to bring down Sproles before he can accelerate in empty space. Carolina showed some offensive life with the arrival of Cam Newton last season and the Panthers are going to score their share of points.

But they know they have to slow the New Orleans offense to have any shot at winning the division.

It’s kind of a similar story in Tampa Bay. The Bucs used the No. 7 overall pick in the draft on Alabama strong safety Mark Barron. They then used a second-round pick on Nebraska linebacker Lavonte David. Barron’s known as a big hitter and has the size to potentially cover Graham and the speed to potentially chase Sproles. The Bucs have a similar vision for David, who is known for his quickness.

In some ways, Atlanta’s offseason also was spent on trying to counter Sproles and Graham. They let Lofton depart as a free agent, mainly because he wasn’t viewed as a three-down player in the scheme being put in by new defensive coordinator Mike Nolan. The Falcons would rather let outside linebackers Sean Weatherspoon and Stephen Nicholas stay on the field every down and try to stay with Sproles and Graham.

But Atlanta’s offseason went beyond dealing with just Sproles and Graham. When teams have had success keeping those two in check, they usually pay for it by getting burned by Brees throwing deep to Colston, Henderson and Moore.

The Falcons have had first-hand experience with that in the past. That’s why one of the first things Nolan said upon taking the job is that he believes it’s necessary to have three starting-caliber cornerbacks. That wasn’t just idle talk. The Falcons laid low through free agency, but just before the NFL draft, they went out and traded with Philadelphia for Pro Bowl cornerback Asante Samuel. Throw him on the field with Dunta Robinson and Brent Grimes and the Falcons at least have a chance against Brees and the deep game.

The gap between the Falcons and Saints isn’t as big as it is for the Panthers and Bucs. That’s a reason why the Falcons were able to go one step further and address an area where they might be able to exploit one of New Orleans’ few weaknesses. The Saints aren’t known for having a dominating defensive line. The Falcons went out and drafted Peter Konz, who they plan to use at guard, and offensive tackle Lamar Holmes. The Falcons want to get younger and more athletic on the offensive line. They want to give quarterback Matt Ryan an opportunity to throw downfield more often.

Ryan will probably never get the chance to put up Brees-like numbers, but the Falcons are looking at every way possible to pull closer to the Saints.

So is the rest of the NFC South. Despite everything that's happened with New Orleans in recent months, the Falcons, Panthers and Bucs are still looking like they're chasing the Saints.

We’re finally reaching the point where there’s some football news out of the New Orleans Saints.

The team had its rookie minicamp over the weekend and assistant head coach Joe Vitt, who is stepping in for suspended coach Sean Payton, and the coordinators met with the New Orleans media Monday afternoon. There was no major news, but I’m looking at the transcripts and seeing several items that are worth discussing.

The veteran Saints have yet to hit the field in their offseason workouts, but that will come next week. With the contract situation of quarterback Drew Brees still very much up in the air, the Saints have to prepare to take the field without their leader. The Brees situation could change with a phone call, but the Saints are preparing to begin their on-field workouts with Chase Daniel and Sean Canfield as their quarterbacks.

“We’re going to throw the volume of offense at them that we would in a normal week,’’ offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael Jr. said. “It won’t be any different in that aspect.”

The Saints aren’t ruling out the possibility of adding another quarterback before they hit the field. They had Brian Brohm in for a tryout during the camp and could possibly sign him or someone else in the coming days. But, for the moment, they’re looking at proceeding with the quarterbacks they have under contract.

“This is going to be an opportunity for Chase and Sean to get more reps and get a good look at those guys,’’ Carmichael said.

There have been reports the Saints and Brees have made no progress toward a long-term contract. Vitt said the negotiations are between general manager Mickey Loomis and Brees’ agent, but still remained optimistic that the quarterback will have a contract before training camp.

“I’ve never been a math major and I’m not an accounting major so there’s nothing I could advise Mickey to do that what he already knows how to do,’’ Vitt said. “Those guys are both on the same page and have the same aspirations and same goals. This is going to get done. I don’t (believe) anybody ever thought it was going to be easy. I think they’re both working to the same goal.”

Vitt and the coordinators also addressed several other topics of significance.

The Saints have re-signed veteran kicker John Kasay, who stepped in last year when Garrett Hartley was injured. Special teams coordinator Greg McMahon said neither kicker is guaranteed a roster spot.

“We’re going to make it competitive, absolutely,’’ McMahon said. “All phases of our team are. We re-signed John for a reason. Garrett knows that and it will certainly be good competition. It’s healthy. It’s good for us.”

Uncertainty remains about the status of linebacker Jonathan Vilma and defensive end Will Smith. The NFL has suspended Vilma for the entire 2012 season and Smith is scheduled to be suspended for the first four games of the season for their roles in the bounty program. But those suspensions are on hold because both players have appealed.

“Both of those players were in the building today and we’re moving forward,’’ Vitt said. “We had a great film session with these guys. I think I have to go back to what we said a couple weeks ago. We’re trying to win today. Today, we got a little bit better than yesterday. This weekend we got a little bit better than the previous weekend. We’re going to adjust those challenges when we have to face them.”

Vitt also said the Saints will open training camp at their facility in Metairie, but suggested they will spend some time practicing against one of their preseason opponents. The Saints open the preseason by playing in the Hall of Fame game in Canton, Ohio against the Arizona Cardinals. They follow that with a road game in New England, home games with Jacksonville and Houston and close out the preseason with a game at Tennessee.

“We’ll open up (camp) a little early because we have the Hall of Fame game and then we’ll probably go and practice against one of our upcoming opponents in training camp,’’ Vitt said. “I think Mickey’s ready to talk about it in a week when it gets settled, but we’ll go away, kind of like we did in California (last preseason) for a week. We did it two years before that in Houston. We’ll go away and practice with an opponent that we have in our preseason schedule.”

Vitt also addressed the status of running back Mark Ingram, who recently had arthroscopic knee surgery.

“I think anytime you see a player limping around with a late-season offseason surgery like he had, you’re concerned,’’ Vitt said. “What I’m not concerned about is his dedication to getting better and his accountability to his teammates. He’s shows up to treatment on time every day. He’s not late. He’s taken a good business approach to this thing. The surgery is probably something that he didn’t have to get done, but as an organization we all agreed that he should get it done to make him a stronger player. Mark a dependable guy now. He’s not going to miss his treatment. He gets his work done. You’re concerned obviously with this, but not much with him.”

Vitt said the Saints may proceed cautiously with Ingram at the start of training camp, but have no doubt he’ll be ready for the beginning of the regular season.

1. Carolina Panthers: The Panthers have the best one-two punch at running back in the entire league in Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams. Although they traded Mike Goodson to the Raiders this offseason, they also signed Mike Tolbert, who could play some fullback as well as running back. The Panthers’ backfield is stacked.

I am extremely high on Stewart and would love to see what he would be able to do if he didn’t have to split time, as evidenced by his whopping 5.4-yard average in 2011. Stewart has power, elusiveness, is very fluid, but also explosive. He can be one of the very best running backs in the NFL. He has come into his own as a receiving option. Stewart’s 47 receptions last season were more than he accumulated over his first three years in the league combined. One knock on Stewart is that he could stand to improve as a pass blocker, but he also just recently turned 25, so his best might be yet to come.

There is also a ton to love about what Williams brings to the table. In 2008, Williams had a monster season, rushing for more than 1,500 yards. He has yet to approach such production again, but like Stewart, Williams averaged 5.4 yards per carry in 2011. Williams has great vision, runs with excellent pad level and I very much believe he has a lot more in the tank even though he recently turned 29. Williams is a solid receiver but seems to have been passed over by Stewart for the bulk of those duties.

Despite his stature, Tolbert also can contribute quite a bit in the passing game. I don’t see him as a fullback, but rather a punishing ball-carrier with an incredibly low center of gravity and excellent power. Tolbert has gotten into the end zone 21 times over the past two seasons and clearly excels near the goal line.

Having quarterback Cam Newton a part of this rushing attack helps a great deal, but the Panthers also will be getting mauling right tackle Jeff Otah back and drafted a similar bruising masher in the run game to play guard in Amini Silatolu. The Panthers should have one of the league’s very best rushing attacks -- and a very dangerous offense overall -- in 2012.

2. New Orleans Saints: The Saints have more backs than they know what to do with, but they distribute the touches from this position extremely effectively. The Saints did not have a first-round pick in this past draft because they traded it to acquire Mark Ingram in the 2011 draft. He appeared in only 10 games during his rookie season due to injury issues. He flashed some of that first-round ability during those games, but overall, it was a rough season for Ingram. However, this former Heisman Trophy winner has true “bell cow” running back traits. Ingram has an excellent combination of leverage, power and vision with a fine burst through the hole. He can make yardage on his own and has the temperament to carry the load. Ingram’s knee now has to be a bit of a concern, though.

The Saints’ most dynamic player at the position -- maybe in the entire league -- is Darren Sproles. He is pure electricity as a runner or receiver. And the Saints use Sproles’ talents to perfection. Drew Brees and the Saints’ coaching staff do a fantastic job of using personnel, formation and motion to get Sproles in advantageous situations -- either as a receiver against an inferior coverage player or as a runner against minimal defenders in the box. And Sproles excels when used in such a manner. As you would expect with his diminutive stature, Sproles can struggle in protection. But despite his size, Sproles hasn’t missed a game in the past four years and has missed only two games in his six-year career.

As third running backs go, Pierre Thomas has no equal in the NFL. Thomas is a potent blend of what both Ingram and Sproles bring to the table. Thomas is somewhat of a jack-of-all-trades, but a master of none. Thomas would start for several teams in the league right now. He finished the 2011 season with just under 1,000 combined yards.

Further showing off their embarrassment of riches as this position, the Saints also have Chris Ivory. Ivory isn’t flashy or dynamic, but he runs with great conviction and power. Getting Ivory the touches he deserves could prove difficult, unless Ingram’s knee remains a major problem.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Buccaneers traded into the late first round to select Doug Martin. Considering Greg Schiano’s history at Rutgers favoring versatile two-way running backs like Ray Rice and Brian Leonard, I expect Martin to quickly grab ahold of the starting job in Tampa Bay over LeGarrette Blount.

Blount is a very powerful runner and is good overall with the ball in his hands, but he has fumbling issues and offers little as a receiver or in protection, which is just too much of an advantage to the opposing defense when he is on the field. But if given carries or if the Bucs are playing with a lead, which was rare last year, Blount can pound the opponent into submission. His career average of 4.6 yards per carry should not be easily dismissed, especially considering the circumstances he was under last year.

But Martin is the better all-around talent compared to Blount. A compact bowling ball with very good vision and a natural skill set for churning out yardage, Martin is also highly adept as a receiver out of the backfield. The Bucs also used a seventh-round pick on Michael Smith, which further shows their lack of trust in Blount.

Mossis Madu is also in the mix for Tampa Bay. As shown by their investments at guard, the Buccaneers are a run-first team. That is what Schiano wants and his offseason moves strongly indicate that is the approach Tampa Bay will be taking going forward, along with taking some shots deep downfield to Vincent Jackson. Martin should get the bulk of the running back touches, but there might be enough to keep both lead backs fed.

4. Atlanta Falcons: In a division loaded with high-quality running backs, Atlanta’s backfield is last on my list. Michael Turner is the lead back here. I see Turner as a declining player who needs a high volume of touches to be effective. Although Turner is a decent pass blocker, he offers very little as a receiver, which is a huge detriment in today’s NFL.

After Week 11 last season, Turner had only one game in which he rushed for more than 76 yards. Turner finished the season with 1,340 yards on the ground and six 100-yard days, but his performance was much too up and down on a week-to-week basis for a back of his nature. I am not implying Turner is over-the-hill. He isn’t. Turner still has value and can be very effective if used properly. But he just isn’t what he once was in terms of his elusiveness and burst. Amazingly though, Turner can still break off long runs. He also has missed only five games over the past five seasons, but I think the Falcons would be wise to get some insurance for their 30-year-old back.

Jacquizz Rodgers is ahead of the game with his blitz pickup for a young back, but now the Falcons need to enhance his role catching the football. That seems like the next logical step in this dynamic player’s development. As a runner, Rodgers certainly isn’t built to be a lead guy, but he shows some power for his size and is competitive in all phases of the position. He could break out in 2012.

Antone Smith and Dimitri Nance are also on Atlanta’s roster, but it seems logical that the Falcons will add another veteran running back with size to back up Turner.

At fullback, the Falcons have one of the best lead blockers in recent years in Ovie Mughelli, but the usage of a fifth-round pick on Bradie Ewing, another downhill hammer blocker, could be the beginning of the end for Mughelli in Atlanta. The Falcons also have Mike Cox, a pure battering-ram fullback, in the equation. But it is unlikely they keep three blocking fullbacks on the roster.

Let’s take a look at some Saturday headlines from around the NFC South.

• John DeShazier has a good column that points out the grievances by the NFL Players Association probably aren’t going to do a lot of good in getting suspensions from the bounty program overturned. One of the NFL’s main points is that commissioner Roger Goodell shouldn’t be issuing the discipline. Back when the NFLPA and the NFL were arguing their way to a labor deal last year, Goodell’s disciplinary powers were an issue. The NFLPA made some noise about wanting to have a panel that would issue discipline. But that didn’t end up being written into the new labor deal and Goodell kept his disciplinary powers. The grievances are a last-ditch attempt by the NFL to get this matter out of Goodell’s hands. I think it’s a real long shot that will happen. But the NFLPA has to try whatever it can because the suspensions probably have no chance of being overturned if they’re heard by Goodell.
• Check out this editorial by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution about the Falcons’ quest for a new stadium. This one’s a bit different than what you generally see on editorial pages when the possibility of taxpayer dollars being used to build a new stadium is discussed. This editorial points out that the reality in the modern world is that communities have to foot at least some of the bill when it comes to stadiums. That may not be what everyone wants to hear, but it’s the truth.
• The Buccaneers made a very classy gesture earlier this week when they signed Eric LeGrand, who suffered a spinal-cord injury while playing at Rutgers in 2010. It was a symbolic move and it came because Tampa Bay coach Greg Schiano was at Rutgers when LeGrand was injured. Check out this fine piece by Mark Cook that details the bond between Schiano and LeGrand.
• New Orleans running back Mark Ingram recently had knee surgery. He likely will miss the rest of the offseason program, but is expected to be healthy for the start of training camp.
• There were some reports earlier in the week that former LSU quarterback Jordan Jefferson had signed with the Buccaneers as an undrafted free agent. Those reports were a little premature. Jefferson hasn’t signed yet. But that could happen soon. Jefferson is taking part in Tampa Bay’s rookie camp this weekend as part of a tryout. If the Bucs like what they see he could be signed soon.

» NFC draft analysis: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

The 2012 NFL draft won’t be remembered as the flashiest in NFC South history. That honor belongs to the 2011 draft -- probably forever.

It’s tough to top a draft in which quarterback Cam Newton went No. 1 to Carolina, Atlanta traded up for receiver Julio Jones and New Orleans traded back into the first round to get running back Mark Ingram. Aside from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' pretty good splash, this year’s NFC South draft wasn’t filled with drama.

Instead, it was filled with very deliberate picks that addressed big needs all around the division.

BEST MOVE

No pick set the division's tone for this draft better than Carolina's selection of Boston College linebacker Luke Kuechly at No. 9 overall.

There’s nothing really flashy about Kuechly, but the Panthers didn’t need flash this time around. They got that with Newton, and he gave them a prolific offense. But that offense was only enough to carry the Panthers to a 6-10 record last season. Carolina couldn’t play defense, and opponents have run all over the Panthers the last few seasons.

A lot of people thought the Panthers should go with a defensive tackle in the first round. But there were two reasons they didn’t. They weren’t enamored of any of the first-round prospects at that position. They also feel pretty good about what they already have at defensive tackle. Ron Edwards, a big free-agent pickup last year, is coming back from an injury that kept him out last season, and the Panthers think he can anchor their defensive line. They also used two third-round picks on defensive tackles Terrell McClain and Sione Fua last year.

The Panthers believe they have the personnel to clog up the middle. Kuechly should be able to come in and do what he does best. He can roam the field and be the kind of tackling machine he was in college. This guy had as few flaws as any player in the draft and is ready to make an instant impact. It remains to be seen whether Keuchly or Jon Beason will play the middle and which one will slide outside. It doesn’t really matter. Either way, the Panthers now have a deep linebacker corps that should be able to stop just about any running game.

RISKIEST MOVE

You could say the Saints made a risky move by using their first draft pick on a player who didn’t even play his college ball in the United States. They drafted Regina (Canada) defensive tackle Akiem Hicks with the No. 89 overall pick in the third round.

The fact Hicks didn’t play against elite completion means there is obvious risk with this pick. But why not take a shot when you’re this late in the third round? Hicks has tremendous upside, and he was good enough to be recruited to LSU before leaving for Canada. The Saints have a great history of discovering gems (Jimmy Graham, Jahri Evans and Marques Colston) later in the draft. They took a risk, but it might pay off.

Hicks should at least have a chance at some playing time early on. The Saints don’t have much behind Brodrick Bunkley and Sedrick Ellis at defensive tackle. Hicks could end up in the rotation very quickly, and the Saints could end up looking very smart for taking this risk.

MOST SURPRISING MOVE

The Bucs haven’t been exciting in any way in quite some time. But they provided virtually all of the excitement within the division in this draft. General manager Mark Dominik shrewdly made some trades that gave the Bucs the ammunition to move up twice and come out of the draft with three instant starters.

Get over the fact that Dominik used the No. 7 overall pick on a safety, Alabama’s Mark Barron. The Bucs weren’t sold on LSU cornerback Morris Claiborne for reasons we don’t know. They were sold on Barron, and safety might have been the weakest position on their roster heading into the draft. Trading down from No. 5 to No. 7 started a process in which Dominik was able to manipulate the draft with trades that gave him two other starters -- running back Doug Martin and outside linebacker Lavonte David.

The Bucs traded back into the first round to get Martin late Thursday night. They were without a second-round pick Friday night. But they saw David sitting there, they had the ammunition, and they pounced. No NFC South team needed more help from this draft than the Buccaneers, and Dominik made sure they got help that will matter right from the start.

FILE IT AWAY

Atlanta’s selection of Wisconsin fullback Bradie Ewing in the fifth round might not seem like a big deal on the surface. For now, Ewing is probably nothing more than a special-teams player. But the Falcons also were looking a year or two down the road when they made this pick. Veteran fullback Ovie Mughelli is coming off a major injury, and he’ll turn 32 in June. It was time to find someone to groom as Mughelli’s eventual successor.

Let's take a look at the top draft-day headlines from around the NFC South.

Tom Sorensen writes that the Panthers must take North Carolina defensive end Quinton Coples, unless Oklahoma State wide receiver Justin Blackmon still is available at No. 9. I agree Blackmon would be a great pickup if he somehow slides. But I can see the Panthers going with Coples. I also can see them going with Boston College linebacker Luke Kuechly, a defensive tackle or a cornerback.

Draft analyst Mike Mayock says the Panthers should stay clear of Coples. Mayock says that Coples is a boom-or-bust player that comes with risk.

The Panthers put Mississippi State offensive tackle Lamar Holmes through an individual workout Wednesday. Holmes is viewed as a late-round pick. He’s from just outside Charlotte, and the workout was held at his former high school.

Speaking of the Panthers and potential late-round picks, keep an eye on Mississippi State wide receiver Darius Reynolds. The Panthers called him this week to make sure they have his correct phone number.

There has been some speculation the Buccaneers could move up to No. 3 to assure they will get either Alabama running back Trent Richardson or LSU cornerback Morris Claiborne. But that’s easier said than done, because the Bucs don’t have a fourth-round pick at the moment. If they want to move up two spots to get Minnesota’s pick, they likely would have to give up their first- and third-round choices, and that might be too steep a price.

Martin Fennelly writes that the Bucs should stay at No. 5, or trade down and add an extra pick or two.

The Saints won’t be active players in Thursday’s portion of the draft. In fact, they won’t be active until late Friday night. The Saints don’t have a pick until the third round (No. 89 overall). They traded away their first-round pick last year in the deal to get Mark Ingram, and had to forfeit their second-round pick as part of their punishment for the bounty program.

Sounds like Atlanta second-year running back Jacquizz Rodgers could be earning an unexpected bonus. Rodgers wore No. 22 as a rookie. But cornerback Asante Samuel, acquired Tuesday in a trade, sounded pretty confident he can get Rodgers to give up the number.

As we get ready for the start of the NFL draft Thursday, let’s quickly review which teams have what picks.

After that, we’ll turn to ESPN Stats & Information for a few draft notes on each team.

The Atlanta Falcons have six overall picks -- second round (No. 55), third round (84), fifth round (157), sixth round (192) and two seventh-round picks (229 and 249). After trading up to draft Julio Jones last year, the Falcons are without a first-round pick for the first time since 2006. With only two picks in the first four rounds, the Falcons are tied with the Saints and Raiders for the fewest. The Falcons have selected a defensive player with six of eight picks in the first three rounds since 2009. Of the six draft picks in 2011, only Jones started a game last season.

The Carolina Panthers have seven picks -- first round (No. 9), second round (40), fourth round (104), fifth round (143), sixth round (180 and 207) and seventh round (216). The Panthers are the only team in the draft without a third-round pick. They traded that to the Bears last year for tight end Greg Olsen. Of the five draft picks the Panthers have had in the top 10 in their history, they have used four of them on offensive players, with defensive end Julius Peppers being the only exception.

The New Orleans Saints have five picks -- third round (No. 89), fourth round (122), fifth round (162), sixth round (179) and seventh round (234). The Saints traded away their first-round pick last year when they moved back into the first round to take running back Mark Ingram. They had to forfeit their second-round pick, which would have been No. 59, as part of their punishment for the bounty program. This is the first time in franchise history the Saints haven’t had a pick in the first two rounds. The five picks are the fewest the Saints have had since 2009, when they had four. Their 16 total picks from 2009 through 2011 are the second-fewest of any team. The Saints drafted defensive players with five of their six picks in 2011.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have six picks -- first round (No. 5), second round (36), third round (68), fifth round (140), sixth round (174) and seventh round (212). The only time the Bucs have had fewer picks was in 2000, when they had only five. Tampa Bay’s eight draft picks in 2011 combined for 46 starts last season (tied for third in the league). The Bucs have drafted defensive front-seven players with their first three picks in 2011 and their first two picks in 2010. There’s been a lot of speculation the Bucs could use their first-round pick on LSU cornerback Morris Claiborne. If they do, it will mark only the third time in franchise history they’ve used a first-round pick on a defensive back. The previous two were Aqib Talib in 2008 and Roderick Jones in 1986.

Check out this Insider piece with Todd McShay’s latest mock draft.

This one is a bit different than usual because McShay provides a few different scenarios for each team in the first round.

At No. 5, McShay has the Tampa Bay Buccaneers taking LSU cornerback Morris Claiborne. But he also says Alabama running back Trent Richardson is a possibility, if he’s available. In the current mock, Richardson isn’t an option for the Bucs because he’s going No. 4 to Cleveland. If Richardson’s available, would the Bucs take him? I don’t know exactly what general manager Mark Dominik and coach Greg Schiano are thinking and they’re not going to reveal their plans in advance.

If Claiborne and Richardson are both available, this is a tough call. The common logic in the NFL these days is that you don’t take a running back in the upper half of the first round, unless he truly is special. McShay, and others, are saying Richardson is the best running back to enter the draft since Adrian Peterson. If the Bucs agree, they may take a shot at Richardson. But I think Claiborne’s the safe choice. He’s the top cornerback in this draft and the Bucs are hoping they aren’t in position to draft top corners in the coming years. They can find a quality running back later in the draft. I’m also wondering if Oklahoma State receiver Justin Blackmon could be a consideration here. I know the Bucs just paid big money to free agent Vincent Jackson, but it seems like they want to surround quarterback Josh Freeman with as much talent as possible.

At No. 9, McShay has the Carolina Panthers taking Mississippi State defensive tackle Fletcher Cox. Makes sense and I can see this happening. But I also can see the Panthers going in an entirely different direction if they see a cornerback, linebacker, wide receiver or offensive tackle that they like better.

This is where we provide our reminder that the Falcons (Julio Jones) and the Saints (Mark Ingram) already have made use of their first-round picks in this draft.

Check out this Insider post by long-time NFL general manager Bill Polian.

In strong detail, he lays out a four-point plan on how the New Orleans Saints should move forward after the initial wave of punishments for their bounty program (more discipline could come for players in the form of suspensions or fines). Polian talks about how important it is to quickly put someone into the place of coach Sean Payton for a year, how the Saints might have to move on without defensive leader Jonathan Vilma because he could be suspended and how the Saints need to come up with a strong plan for the draft, even though they don’t have picks in the first or second round (the second-round pick was forfeited as part of the punishment and the first-round pick was traded last year as the Saints moved up to draft Mark Ingram).

All of those are important, but Polian also talks about something else that’s even more significant. He says it’s crucial that the Saints sign quarterback Drew Brees to a long-term contract extension immediately. Brees currently is carrying the franchise tag. He hasn’t signed his tender and, if something doesn’t happen soon, Brees could stay away from the offseason program that starts in mid-April.

“With all of the instability now surrounding this franchise, it is imperative to lock up the player who acts as its cornerstone,’’ Polian wrote.

Polian said the Saints need Brees in the offseason program “to steady the team and help shoulder the leadership burden’’.

I couldn’t agree more with Polian. In fact, the Saints should have had Brees signed to a long-term deal long before now. That hasn’t happened and it has to change.

The best thing the Saints can do right now to start the healing process is to make Brees happy and let him come in and carry the franchise through some very challenging times.

NFL commissioner Roger Goodell announced heavy penalties (suspensions, a heavy fine and the forfeiture of draft picks) against the New Orleans Saints on Wednesday. But this story is far from over.

Let’s take a look at what else might happen.

What’s left to come?

Pat Yasinskas: Disciplinary action against the players. The NFL has said anywhere from 22 to 27 players were actively involved in a three-year bounty program in which Saints’ defenders were offered financial incentives to intentionally injure opponents. The players also were involved in funding the programs. Goodell has said there will be disciplinary action against the players, but he didn’t announce it when he revealed the suspensions for coach Sean Payton, former defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, assistant head coach Joe Vitt, general manager Mickey Loomis, a $500,000 fine for the team, and the loss of second-round draft picks in 2012 and 2013.

That’s because Goodell has agreed to allow the NFL Players Association some time to complete an independent investigation into the situation. Goodell is expected to meet soon with union leader DeMaurice Smith and will listen to recommendations on penalties. The ultimate decision on that rests with Goodell, and given the severity of the punishment he already has handed out, look for the penalties against players to also be harsh.

Expect multiple suspensions and heavy fines. Goodell is intent on making sure nothing like this ever happens again. He already got the message out to coaches and administrators. But he also has to make it clear to players.

When will those penalties come?

PY: Unless Goodell and Smith meet very quickly, there probably will be a little lag time on this. The annual NFL spring meeting begins Monday in Palm Beach, Fla., and Goodell will have to travel there sometime over the weekend. Once the meeting gets started, he’ll be tied up with other matters.

The likely scenario is that an announcement will come late next week or early the following week.

Which players have the most to lose?

PY: It’s hard to say, because the NFL’s report didn’t go into a lot of specific details on players. But the one player that was singled out in the report was New Orleans middle linebacker Jonathan Vilma. The NFL said he was responsible for placing a $10,000 bounty of former Minnesota quarterback Brett Favre. That’s not going to look good when a decision on his punishment is made. It’s likely Vilma will face a multiple-game suspension, and he probably will be the player with the most severe punishment.

But it’s not likely to end with Vilma. The NFL obviously turned up a lot of details in its investigation, but held back details on specific players. Those details likely will come out when discipline for players is announced. Expect more suspensions and plenty of fines.

Will the NFL stagger the suspensions, or will they all come at the same time in the 2012 season?

PY: Keep in mind, the punishment on this one isn’t likely to be limited to just the Saints. There are former New Orleans defenders scattered about the league, and some are out of the NFL. They’re still subject to discipline. But it’s likely the Saints will have multiple defenders facing penalties. If a lot of them are facing multiple-game suspensions, the NFL might have to stagger the suspensions. You could argue the penalties already have put the Saints at a competitive disadvantage. But forcing them to play multiple games without, let’s just say for example, half their defense, would make the Saints completely non-competitive. If there are a lot of players suspended, the NFL might have to spread things out.

How will the Saints replace the suspended players?

PY: Again, much will depend on the number of players suspended. But the fact that Loomis will be allowed to work through the offseason, and begin his suspension just before the regular season opens, will give him time to put a plan in place. He’s likely to go heavy on defensive players in the draft, although the Saints won’t have a pick in the first two rounds (the first-round pick was lost last year when the Saints traded up to get Mark Ingram. The second-round choice was forfeited as part of the punishment). So the Saints might have to play some of their middle-round draft picks very early in the season.

The Saints already have added free-agent defensive tackle Brodrick Bunkley, and have had multiple free-agent linebackers in for visits. The Saints have been active in free agency throughout the Loomis/Payton era. But there’s an additional challenge this year, because the Saints are very tight against the salary cap. Part of the issue is that quarterback Drew Brees is currently carrying the franchise tag while he and the team try to work out a long-term contract. A new deal isn’t likely to free up much cap room. In fact, unless there’s some unusual structure to it, Brees’ cap figure will probably be in the $19 million range. But the Saints need to get him signed just to create some stability.

Then, there are other ways Loomis can work with the cap. There are several players who could be released to free up cap room, and several other contracts that easily could be restructured. There’s little doubt the Saints will remain players in free agency. They also could catch a bit of an in-season cap break. Once players begin suspensions, they don’t count against the cap. They’ll again count against the cap once they are reinstated, but their prorated salary for the games they miss won’t continue to count against the cap, because they won’t be paid for the games they miss due to suspension.

Tuesday’s news that Baltimore Ravens running back Ricky Williams is retiring comes with a bit of an NFC South angle.

Williams once was the biggest thing to ever hit the New Orleans Saints. Remember the 1999 draft, when the Saints traded away all their picks from that year, plus a couple more for the following year, for the right to draft Williams?

Yeah, it made headlines all over the place because it was one of the most daring trades ever -- we’re talking way more daring and dangerous than what the Falcons gave up to get Julio Jones or what the Saints gave up to get Mark Ingram in the 2011 draft.

It was the biggest deal coach Mike Ditka made and (along with a 3-13 record that season) it led to the end of his coaching career.

When coach Jim Haslett arrived the next season, Williams had some success. He had two 1,000-yard seasons, but there were issues. Williams was a unique personality. He didn’t interact a lot with teammates and often conducted interviews behind the shield of his helmet.

"Ricky's just a different guy," former New Orleans receiver Joe Horn once said. "People he wanted to deal with, he did. And people he wanted to have nothing to do with, he didn't. No one could understand that. I don't think guys in the locker room could grasp that he wanted to be to himself -- you know, quiet. If you didn't understand him and didn't know what he was about, it always kept people in suspense."

Haslett was in suspense or, at the very least, never quite could figure out Williams. That’s part of the reason Deuce McAllister was drafted. By the end of the 2001 season, in which Williams rushed for 1,245 yards and caught 60 passes, Haslett was pretty clear that Williams didn’t fit his long-term plans.

In the spring of 2002, the Saints traded Williams to the Miami Dolphins. They were able to get back some of what they initially gave up for Williams by getting four draft picks, including two first-round choices, in return.

Williams’ career would go on to have all sorts of twists and turns. He had success at times in Miami. He also retired from football in 2004, only to return in 2005. Williams was suspended by the NFL in 2006 and wound up playing for Toronto in the Canadian Football League.

Williams returned to the Dolphins in 2007. He finished his career with Baltimore and ended up with 10,009 rushing yards and 74 total touchdowns (66 of them on the ground).

Not a bad career, especially when you consider all the interruptions.

Would it have somehow worked out better if things had been handled differently and Williams spent his entire career in New Orleans? It’s impossible to say for sure.

Williams’ track record suggests he might have encountered some of the same, or different, problems if he had been with the Saints the entire time. Things worked out all right for him. They also worked out for the Saints, aside from the initial price tag to get Williams. McAllister ended up having a very nice career.

Reggie Bush came in and did some nice things at certain times. Along the way, the Saints also added Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles, who have done some pretty nice things at running back.

Unless you’re a die-hard fan of the New Orleans Saints, you might not even know who Jed Collins is.

That’s understandable because a season in which you compile four carries for four yards and two touchdowns and catch 11 passes for 50 yards and two touchdowns isn’t going to catch the eyes of casual observers.

But die-hard fans and casual observers alike might want to take a closer look at how much Collins meant to the Saints this past season. He had bounced around the NFL since 2008, but had never appeared in a regular-season game. But the Saints brought in Collins and he wound up replacing Heath Evans quite nicely.

In a season in which New Orleans set all sorts of records, Collins quietly played a very big role. He was responsible for protecting Drew Brees and opening holes for Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram and Chris Ivory.

Collins obviously had to be doing something right because the coaching staff used him extensively. According to playing time numbers from the 2011 season obtained by ESPN.com, Collins was on the field for 42.5 percent of New Orleans’ offensive plays. That’s the second-highest percentage of any fullback in the NFL.

Only Baltimore’s Vonta Leach (52.8 percent) was active in a higher rate of his team’s offensive snaps. Collins was on the field for 489 of New Orleans’ 1,152 offensive plays. He also contributed heavily on special teams. Collins took part in 32 percent of New Orleans’ special-teams plays.

Collins easily got more offensive playing time than any other NFC South fullback. Tampa Bay’s Erik Lorig was next at 23.6 percent. Lorig also got considerable time on special teams, participating in 66.8 percent of the Bucs’ special-teams plays. Tampa Bay’s Earnest Graham suffered a season-ending injury. But, prior to that, he got in on 18.8 percent of the offensive plays as a fullback and also was used at tailback.

Carolina’s Jerome Felton was next at 15.3 percent. Atlanta’s Ovie Mughelli also suffered a season-ending injury, but got in for 13.1 percent of the team’s offensive plays. Replacement Mike Cox was on the field for 11.9 percent of the Falcons’ offensive plays.

Only two NFC South running backs were on the field for more than 50 percent of their team’s offensive plays.

Carolina’s Jonathan Stewart led the division at 55.2 percent. Stewart was on the field for 577 of Carolina’s 1,046 offensive plays. Atlanta’s Michael Turner took part in 52.2 percent of his offense’s plays. Turner was on the field for 588 of 1,127 snaps.

Neither player was in the top 10 among the league’s running backs. Philadelphia’s LeSean McCoy led the league as he played on 81.1 percent of his team’s snaps.

There were a few other items of interest when it came to playing time for NFC South running backs. While Stewart led the division, his teammate, DeAngelo Williams, was third in the NFC South at 42.73 percent, just ahead of New Orleans’ Darren Sproles 42.71 percent.

Tampa Bay was the only team without a single running back to play at least 40 percent of his team’s snaps. Starter LeGarrette Blount participated in 38.4 of the Bucs’ snaps, which was a problem. The Bucs were hesitant to use Blount as a pass blocker or receiver, so their offense was predictable because Tampa Bay generally was running when Blount was on the field.

Blount’s backup, Kregg Lumpkin, was on the field for 35.9 percent of Tampa Bay’s snaps. Earnest Graham also split time at fullback and tailback for the Bucs before suffering a season-ending injury. Graham took part in 18.8 percent of Tampa Bay's offensive plays.

Here’s the rundown on the percentage of plays the rest of the NFC South running backs took part in:

Pierre Thomas, Saints, 33.8.

Jacquizz Rodgers, Falcons, 28.

Jason Snelling, Falcons, 27.9.

Mark Ingram, Saints, 18.6.

Chris Ivory, Saints, 10.4.

Mossis Madu, Buccaneers, 5.9.

Josh Vaughn, Panthers, 1.1.

Mike Goodson, Panthers, 0.4.

Antone Smith, Falcons 0.2

Check out this Insider post in which ESPN’s Mel Kiper has his first mock draft for 2012.

Kiper has the Tampa Bay Buccaneers taking Alabama running back Trent Richardson with the No. 5 overall pick. Kiper also cautions that fans shouldn’t assume the Bucs won’t take a running back here because they already have LeGarrette Blount. If anything, the 2011 season showed that Blount probably never will be an every-down back. He simply isn’t a pass-catcher and never could pick up the pass protections well enough for the previous coaching staff to leave him on the field as a pass-blocker. I’m not sure the Bucs are going to be willing to lock up Blount with any sort of long-term deal. Blount still could have a role because he is a good power runner. But drafting Richardson makes plenty of sense because he’s an all-around running back. Also, drafting an offensive skill-position player usually generates a lot of excitement. I’m not saying the Bucs would simply draft a player to generate excitement, but this is a franchise that could use anything that might generate a little positive interest.

Kiper also has another Alabama player going to the only other NFC South team with a first-round pick this year. That’s cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick. That move would make plenty of sense because the Panthers are looking to upgrade a defense that wasn’t very good in 2011. Put Kirkpatrick opposite Chris Gamble and Carolina instantly would have a better secondary than it did last season.

At the moment, Atlanta and New Orleans don’t have first-round picks in 2012. The Falcons gave up their pick last year in the trade to get Julio Jones. The Saints did the same thing to acquire Mark Ingram. It’s still possible, but not likely, the Saints and Falcons could trade for first-round picks.