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The title of a project on the division blogs this week is “Dream/Nightmare scenarios’’ for each NFL team. When I first received the instructions, I called my boss.

I asked about the possibility of taking it one step further. I asked if I could write about the nightmare of all nightmares.

Let’s be clear: It’s not something that I think will happen. But nightmares, after all, are supposed to be the worst thing you can concoct. And there’s one remotely possible scenario in the NFC South that would go way beyond the run-of-the-mill nightmare scenario I cooked up in the team post on the Saints.

What if quarterback Drew Brees doesn’t get a long-term deal and somehow ends up sitting out the entire 2012 season?

If you’re a New Orleans Saints fan, this is where your stage of sleep goes from just dozing off to the start of the worst nightmare ever. This is where all the good feeling Brees has brought to New Orleans since 2006, and especially since the start of the 2009 season, disappears. This is where the Saints go from being the elite team they’ve been the past few years back to the mediocrity that was their trademark through almost their entire previous existence. This is where Chase Daniel takes the first snap of the season at home against the Washington Redskins on Sept. 9 and starts through the regular-season finale Dec. 30 at home against Carolina.

This is the land of 8-8, or maybe even 6-10.

Unlikely? Highly. I still believe Brees will sign a long-term contract, straighten out what’s been a mess of an offseason for the Saints and carry the team to another postseason berth, no matter how many coaches and other players are suspended.

But with each day that passes without Brees having that long-term deal, Saints fans must start worrying a little bit more. Brees carries the franchise tag, and the deadline for him to finalize a long-term contract is July 16. If he doesn’t have a deal by then, he has only one option -- sign the franchise tag and play for a little more than $16 million this season.

Wait, there is actually a second option. Brees could just decide to sit out the season.

Public perception is that Brees never would do that because he’s such a competitor. I’m not here to rain on Brees’ public perception. My experience around him leads me to believe he is what he’s perceived to be -- and that’s not true of all the people I cover. Brees really is a fierce competitor.

But that’s part of the problem. It’s hard to say exactly what he would do if the deadline passed with no deal. At this point, Brees himself might not even know what he would do. But my impression of him leads me to believe there’s at least the possibility he could feel like he has been wronged by the Saints and could swing back as strongly as possible.

Brees has made it clear he despises the idea of playing without any long-term security, so maybe he just doesn’t play. That would be beyond disastrous for the franchise.

This team might have lost its mastermind when head coach Sean Payton was suspended, but I think the Saints could go on nicely with Brees around. If he’s not, this team loses its heart, soul and at least as many games (eight) as it did the past two seasons combined.

Take Brees away from the Saints and you have the Jacksonville Jaguars. Wait, at least the Jaguars have Blaine Gabbert. Yeah, he was terrible as a rookie, but there were at least some reasons why he was a first-round draft pick.

Daniel, who was undrafted in 2009, has completed only six passes in his NFL career. Some people like to say Daniel is the second coming of Brees. He's not. The only things Brees and Daniel have in common are that they’re short by NFL quarterback standards and know the Saints’ playbook. Brees is a once-in-a-lifetime talent. Daniel might look fine in preseason games when he’s plugged into Payton’s system. But start him over an entire regular season, especially one in which Payton isn’t around, and you’ll get a quick reminder of why teams generally avoid quarterbacks who are 6 feet or shorter.

Daniel doesn’t have Brees’ arm, experience in the offense or his magic. Yeah, I know there’s a school of thought that says you could throw any quarterback out there with the likes of Jimmy Graham, Darren Sproles, Marques Colston, Devery Henderson and Lance Moore and he’d do just fine.

I don’t buy it. Daniel could get the Saints through a game or two (maybe a little more if Payton were around) if Brees were banged up. Brees could get the Saints through a season without Payton.

But Payton’s not going to be around. If, somehow, Brees joins him, the Saints suddenly would become a team with a defense that might or might not be average, some good skill-position players on offense and no threat at quarterback.

That sounds like a formula for instant mediocrity -- and a huge nightmare for a franchise and a fan base that has gotten very used to winning big.

There’s been a lot of speculation that all the offseason turmoil is going to cause the New Orleans Saints to crumble.

I’m not buying that at all. Neither are the other three NFC South teams.

Just take a look at what the Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have done this offseason. I think you can look at every major move they’ve made and see they all have a common root. Everything the Falcons, Panthers and Bucs have done is at least partially designed to counter the team that has won the NFC South two of the last three seasons.

Yes, you can take suspended coach Sean Payton away from the Saints for the season, but you can’t take Payton’s influence out of an offense that put up record-setting numbers and has been piling up points since his arrival in 2006. Offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael Jr. simply will pick up the remote control, hit a button, and Drew Brees will start throwing deep for Marques Colston, Devery Henderson and Lance Moore and dumping off shorter passes to Darren Sproles and Jimmy Graham and letting them do their damage in open space.

And, yes, middle linebacker Jonathan Vilma is suspended for the season and defensive end Will Smith will be suspended for the first four games. But the Saints may be better off with former Atlanta middle linebacker Curtis Lofton than they were with Vilma, who was slowed by knee problems last year. New defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is putting together successful and consistent defenses. If he can do that in New Orleans, the Saints could be every bit as good -- or better -- than they have been in recent seasons.

The rest of the NFC South knows it and has acted accordingly.

The Panthers and Bucs are generally viewed as teams on the rise, but they still have a long way to go to catch the Saints. The Falcons have been good the last four years, but they haven’t been able to overtake the Saints as the division’s dominant team.

Everybody’s still chasing the Saints, particularly Sproles and Graham, who each present unique matchup problems. That’s because Graham isn’t the typical tight end and Sproles is unlike any other running back. Graham’s a former basketball player, who had 99 catches for 1,310 yards and 11 touchdowns last season – his first full season as a starter.

Sproles joined the Saints last season and Payton figured out more ways to use him than the Chargers ever did. Sproles had a career-best 603 rushing yards, while sharing carries with Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram and Chris Ivory. Sproles isn’t just a running back. He sometimes lines up at wide receiver or in the slot and caught 86 passes last season for 710 yards and seven touchdowns.

It’s safe to say Sproles and Graham are a big part of the reason Carolina used its first-round draft pick on linebacker Luke Kuechly. Even with Jon Beason and Thomas Davis coming back from injuries that kept them out most of last season, the Panthers still craved another linebacker with the speed to stay with Graham for brief stretches and bring some hope of sometimes being able to bring down Sproles before he can accelerate in empty space. Carolina showed some offensive life with the arrival of Cam Newton last season and the Panthers are going to score their share of points.

But they know they have to slow the New Orleans offense to have any shot at winning the division.

It’s kind of a similar story in Tampa Bay. The Bucs used the No. 7 overall pick in the draft on Alabama strong safety Mark Barron. They then used a second-round pick on Nebraska linebacker Lavonte David. Barron’s known as a big hitter and has the size to potentially cover Graham and the speed to potentially chase Sproles. The Bucs have a similar vision for David, who is known for his quickness.

In some ways, Atlanta’s offseason also was spent on trying to counter Sproles and Graham. They let Lofton depart as a free agent, mainly because he wasn’t viewed as a three-down player in the scheme being put in by new defensive coordinator Mike Nolan. The Falcons would rather let outside linebackers Sean Weatherspoon and Stephen Nicholas stay on the field every down and try to stay with Sproles and Graham.

But Atlanta’s offseason went beyond dealing with just Sproles and Graham. When teams have had success keeping those two in check, they usually pay for it by getting burned by Brees throwing deep to Colston, Henderson and Moore.

The Falcons have had first-hand experience with that in the past. That’s why one of the first things Nolan said upon taking the job is that he believes it’s necessary to have three starting-caliber cornerbacks. That wasn’t just idle talk. The Falcons laid low through free agency, but just before the NFL draft, they went out and traded with Philadelphia for Pro Bowl cornerback Asante Samuel. Throw him on the field with Dunta Robinson and Brent Grimes and the Falcons at least have a chance against Brees and the deep game.

The gap between the Falcons and Saints isn’t as big as it is for the Panthers and Bucs. That’s a reason why the Falcons were able to go one step further and address an area where they might be able to exploit one of New Orleans’ few weaknesses. The Saints aren’t known for having a dominating defensive line. The Falcons went out and drafted Peter Konz, who they plan to use at guard, and offensive tackle Lamar Holmes. The Falcons want to get younger and more athletic on the offensive line. They want to give quarterback Matt Ryan an opportunity to throw downfield more often.

Ryan will probably never get the chance to put up Brees-like numbers, but the Falcons are looking at every way possible to pull closer to the Saints.

So is the rest of the NFC South. Despite everything that's happened with New Orleans in recent months, the Falcons, Panthers and Bucs are still looking like they're chasing the Saints.

This is the time of year when you hear a lot about offseason workouts. This is when teams can begin conditioning drills and get out onto the field to start working on football and that continues through minicamps and organized team activities.

It’s a great time to build chemistry. You’ll also hear a lot of coaches bragging about how almost all their players are participating in the workouts, which is great. But, in some cases, there’s a lot of money to be earned just for showing up and working out in the offseason.

I just got a look at all the offseason workout bonuses scheduled to be earned (if the players take part in a majority of the workouts) by NFC South players this year and there were some eye openers. Tampa Bay general manager Mark Dominik doesn’t use a lot of workout bonuses in the contracts he negotiates. But, when he does use them, they’re significant. Tight end Kellen Winslow and cornerback Eric Wright have the largest workout bonuses in the division for 2012 at $500,000 each. Offensive tackle Donald Penn is right behind them at $400,000 and defensive tackle Gerald McCoy is scheduled to collect $300,000. Linebacker Quincy Black has a $250,000 bonus and defensive tackle Amobi Okoye is slated to make $200,000. Those six are the only Buccaneers with workout bonuses this year, but they come to a total of $2.15 million.

Carolina general manager Marty Hurney and New Orleans general manager Mickey Loomis are much more liberal in their use of workout bonuses. The Saints and Panthers each have 21 players scheduled to earn workout bonuses this year.

Carolina’s scheduled workout bonuses add up to $2.055 million. I won’t list anyone under six figures. But here are the guys who can earn big money. Charles Johnson, Jon Beason, DeAngelo Williams, Ryan Kalil and Ron Edwards each are scheduled to make $250,000. Charles Godfrey, James Anderson, Olindo Mare and Garry Williams each can earn $100,000.

If all the New Orleans players take part in enough workouts, the Saints will have to pay out $2.381 million. Sedrick Ellis leads the Saints with a $250,000 workout bonus. Jahri Evans, Lance Moore and Scott Shanle each are scheduled to make $200,000 and Will Smith is slated to make $150,000. Marques Colston, Roman Harper, Jabari Greer, Jermon Bushrod, Jonathan Vilma, Malcolm Jenkins, Devery Henderson, Pierre Thomas, David Thomas, Korey Hall and Will Herring each are scheduled to make $100,000.

Apparently, Atlanta’s Thomas Dimitroff, who probably works out more (he rides a bike religiously) than any NFC South general manager, doesn’t believe in workout bonuses. Dimitroff has used them very sparingly in the past. This year, there’s not a single Atlanta player schedule to earn a workout bonus.

Now, that the NFL draft is over, let’s have some fun. Let’s start looking ahead to next season with team-by-team looks at what I project as the opening day lineups for each of the four NFC South teams.

Let’s start with the New Orleans Saints, who might not have any rookies open the season as starters because they didn’t have a draft pick until the third round. Also, let’s keep in mind that the Saints could be dealing with some suspensions from their bounty program. We won’t speculate on possible suspensions. We’ll just go with the depth chart as I see it now and I’ll throw in comments where there could be competition.

OFFENSE

• QB Drew Brees (assuming his contract situation gets straightened out)
• RB Pierre Thomas (you can also count Darren Sproles as a starter)
• FB Jed Collins
• WR Marques Colston
• WR Devery Henderson (Lance Moore will play as much as the starters)
• TE Jimmy Graham
• LT Jermon Bushrod
• LG Ben Grubbs
• C Brian de la Puente
• RG Jahri Evans
• RT Zach Strief

DEFENSE

• DE Will Smith
• DT Sedrick Ellis
• DT Brodrick Bunkley
• DE Cameron Jordan
• LB Curtis Lofton
• LB Jonathan Vilma (it remains to be seen if Vilma or Lofton will play in the middle)
• LB Scott Shanle
• CB Jabari Greer
• CB Patrick Robinson
• FS Malcolm Jenkins
• SS Roman Harper

SPECIALISTS

• K Garrett Hartley (assuming he wins training camp competition with John Kasay)
• P Thomas Morstead
• PR Darren Sproles
• KR Darren Sproles

» NFC draft analysis: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

The 2012 NFL draft won’t be remembered as the flashiest in NFC South history. That honor belongs to the 2011 draft -- probably forever.

It’s tough to top a draft in which quarterback Cam Newton went No. 1 to Carolina, Atlanta traded up for receiver Julio Jones and New Orleans traded back into the first round to get running back Mark Ingram. Aside from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' pretty good splash, this year’s NFC South draft wasn’t filled with drama.

Instead, it was filled with very deliberate picks that addressed big needs all around the division.

BEST MOVE

No pick set the division's tone for this draft better than Carolina's selection of Boston College linebacker Luke Kuechly at No. 9 overall.

There’s nothing really flashy about Kuechly, but the Panthers didn’t need flash this time around. They got that with Newton, and he gave them a prolific offense. But that offense was only enough to carry the Panthers to a 6-10 record last season. Carolina couldn’t play defense, and opponents have run all over the Panthers the last few seasons.

A lot of people thought the Panthers should go with a defensive tackle in the first round. But there were two reasons they didn’t. They weren’t enamored of any of the first-round prospects at that position. They also feel pretty good about what they already have at defensive tackle. Ron Edwards, a big free-agent pickup last year, is coming back from an injury that kept him out last season, and the Panthers think he can anchor their defensive line. They also used two third-round picks on defensive tackles Terrell McClain and Sione Fua last year.

The Panthers believe they have the personnel to clog up the middle. Kuechly should be able to come in and do what he does best. He can roam the field and be the kind of tackling machine he was in college. This guy had as few flaws as any player in the draft and is ready to make an instant impact. It remains to be seen whether Keuchly or Jon Beason will play the middle and which one will slide outside. It doesn’t really matter. Either way, the Panthers now have a deep linebacker corps that should be able to stop just about any running game.

RISKIEST MOVE

You could say the Saints made a risky move by using their first draft pick on a player who didn’t even play his college ball in the United States. They drafted Regina (Canada) defensive tackle Akiem Hicks with the No. 89 overall pick in the third round.

The fact Hicks didn’t play against elite completion means there is obvious risk with this pick. But why not take a shot when you’re this late in the third round? Hicks has tremendous upside, and he was good enough to be recruited to LSU before leaving for Canada. The Saints have a great history of discovering gems (Jimmy Graham, Jahri Evans and Marques Colston) later in the draft. They took a risk, but it might pay off.

Hicks should at least have a chance at some playing time early on. The Saints don’t have much behind Brodrick Bunkley and Sedrick Ellis at defensive tackle. Hicks could end up in the rotation very quickly, and the Saints could end up looking very smart for taking this risk.

MOST SURPRISING MOVE

The Bucs haven’t been exciting in any way in quite some time. But they provided virtually all of the excitement within the division in this draft. General manager Mark Dominik shrewdly made some trades that gave the Bucs the ammunition to move up twice and come out of the draft with three instant starters.

Get over the fact that Dominik used the No. 7 overall pick on a safety, Alabama’s Mark Barron. The Bucs weren’t sold on LSU cornerback Morris Claiborne for reasons we don’t know. They were sold on Barron, and safety might have been the weakest position on their roster heading into the draft. Trading down from No. 5 to No. 7 started a process in which Dominik was able to manipulate the draft with trades that gave him two other starters -- running back Doug Martin and outside linebacker Lavonte David.

The Bucs traded back into the first round to get Martin late Thursday night. They were without a second-round pick Friday night. But they saw David sitting there, they had the ammunition, and they pounced. No NFC South team needed more help from this draft than the Buccaneers, and Dominik made sure they got help that will matter right from the start.

FILE IT AWAY

Atlanta’s selection of Wisconsin fullback Bradie Ewing in the fifth round might not seem like a big deal on the surface. For now, Ewing is probably nothing more than a special-teams player. But the Falcons also were looking a year or two down the road when they made this pick. Veteran fullback Ovie Mughelli is coming off a major injury, and he’ll turn 32 in June. It was time to find someone to groom as Mughelli’s eventual successor.

New Orleans Saints offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael isn’t known for being a great quote. He comes across as shy and quiet in interviews.

But Carmichael is one of those guys you need to listen to when he does have something to say because his thoughts usually carry some weight.

Carmichael and assistant head coach Joe Vitt met with the New Orleans media to discuss Wisconsin wide receiver Nick Toon, who the Saints drafted in the fourth round. Carmichael was asked if Toon compares to any other receiver he’s ever worked with.

“His range and his hands remind me more of [Marques] Colston,’’ Carmichael said. “He runs better than I think people give him credit for. He was timed real well at the combine. I think that speed shows up on film.”

Any comparison to Colston is pretty high praise for a receiver coming into New Orleans’ offense. Since arriving in New Orleans as a seventh-round pick in 2006, Colston has been Drew Brees’ favorite and most-productive target.

Toon had some medical issues in his college career, but Vitt said that’s not a concern.

“Our doctors passed him on his physical,’’ Vitt said. “I believe he missed only one game his senior year, the Indiana game, where he probably could have played in the game. I think he’s going to have to work through some issues in the National Football League, but they all do. Robert Meachem missed his whole first year. We have good medical grades on him. We like his production with over 60 catches.’’

If Toon turns out to be anything close to what Colston has been, the Saints just helped themselves.

The fourth round is just about over. It's down to the compensatory picks and those can't be traded, so this round will end with only three picks made by NFC South teams.

But this still was a relatively eventful round for the division. Carolina was the star in this round as the Panthers used back-to-back picks to get Oklahoma defensive end Frank Alexander and Arkansas receiver Joe Adams. I don’t think either is a candidate to start right away, but they give the Panthers some depth at positions where they needed depth.

Charles Johnson is Carolina’s big threat at defensive end and Greg Hardy hasn’t really produced the way the Panthers had hoped. They still have hope Hardy will emerge, but Alexander provides another option behind him.

I like the Adams pick even more. Carolina has one certainty at receiver. That’s Steve Smith. After that, the Panthers are hoping Brandon LaFell can continue to develop and David Gettis can come back strong from last year’s season-ending injury. But there are no guarantees LaFell and Gettis will become stars, so it makes sense to add another guy to this mix. Adams could end up being used as a slot receiver fairly early on. He has the potential to be explosive and, with Cam Newton’s arm, the Panthers could use someone besides Smith that can get open down the field.

Speaking of wide receivers, the Saints got one with the only other NFC South pick in the fourth round. They took Wisconsin’s Nick Toon. A lack of top end speed and questions about his durability are the main reasons Toon slid to the fourth round. But this is a polished player from a big-time program. In New Orleans’ offense, wide receivers tend to produce more than their draft status would suggest. Just look at what Marques Colston and Lance Moore have done.

The Saints did lose Robert Meachem in free agency. They still have Colston, Moore and Devery Henderson. Toon should have a chance to compete with Adrian Arrington for the fourth receiver spot.

Let's take a look at the top Wednesday morning headlines from around the NFC South.

— The Atlanta Falcons reportedly are on the verge of making a trade with Philadelphia for cornerback Asante Samuel. Unless there’s a snag, it will be completed before the start of the draft Thursday. This would give the Falcons three starting-caliber cornerbacks, with Dunta Robinson and Brent Grimes already in place, but new defensive coordinator Mike Nolan has said he plans to play three cornerbacks much of the time. It’s pretty much a given that Samuel will have to restructure his contract if he does join the Falcons.

— Here’s a column that suggests the Buccaneers could take Boston College linebacker Luke Kuechly at No. 5, if Alabama running back Trent Richardson and LSU cornerback Morris Claiborne are gone. Kuechly is easily the best linebacker in the draft, has no flaws on or off the field and the Bucs certainly need help at linebacker. But I’m not sure we would see this scenario play out unless new coach Greg Schiano places a higher premium on the middle-linebacker position than the previous coaching staff did. General manager Mark Dominik refused to pay Barrett Ruud big money and replaced him with third-round draft pick Mason Foster last year. If Schiano is intent on getting a top-notch middle linebacker, then Kuechly makes lots of sense. If the Bucs still don’t view middle linebacker as being all that crucial a position, then I think they’d consider USC offensive tackle Matt Kalil and Oklahoma State receiver Justin Blackmon at No. 5. One other thing to keep in mind about Kuechly -- he spent most of his offseason working out at IMG Academies in nearby Bradenton. Several of the Bucs were down there working out and Kuechly made some new friends. They might be in Schiano’s ear about Kuechly.

— Carolina receiver Steve Smith said he was told by one of the Saints last season that he would have been fined if he hadn’t gone after Smith’s ankles out of bounds. That doesn’t quite fit the parameters of the bounty program, but it doesn’t look good. And who thinks it’s a good idea to give Smith anything, real or perceived, that might motivate him? Smith thrives on that kind of stuff.

— Without a pick until the third round, the Saints will need to pull of some magic in the middle and late rounds of the draft. They’ve done it before. They previously have found gems like receiver Marques Colston and guard Jahri Evans later in the draft.

— Addressing the bounty program, interim New Orleans coach Joe Vitt said the Saints crossed the line with words in meetings, but not with their on-field deeds.

The Falcons, Panthers and Buccaneers all had pre-draft sessions with the media. The New Orleans Saints didn’t have any media access, but we don’t want to leave them out.

So let’s turn to two of our in-house draft experts to discuss what the Saints may do in the draft.

Check out this Insider post by Steve Muench that lays out a draft plan for the Saints and throws out five potential picks. Muench starts with Virginia defensive end Cam Johnson in the third round and also has them taking defensive tackle Jaye Howard in the fifth round. Both picks make plenty of sense. The Saints don’t have picks in the first two rounds and they obviously have some needs on defense as new coordinator Steve Spagnuolo takes over. Spagnuolo emphasizes the importance of generating a pass rush almost exclusively from the front four. Aside from defensive end Will Smith, the Saints don’t have a strong pass-rusher. Muench says Johnson has the quickness to develop into a good pass-rusher. Howard also has potential as a pass-rusher in the interior. That could help because defensive tackles Brodrick Bunkley and Sedrick Ellis aren’t known for their pass-rushing skills.

In this Insider post , Matt Williamson writes about the four teams with the worst draft situations. As you would expect for a team short on picks, the Saints made his list. Then again, so did the Falcons.

In his analysis of what the Saints need, Williamson is in full agreement with Muench about the importance of adding some help to the defensive front. I think that’s pretty much the consensus on where the Saints’ biggest needs are.

Let’s bounce back to Muench’s picks for the Saints. His last one might be the most intriguing. He has the Saints taking Western Michigan wide receiver Jordan White in the seventh round. White doesn’t have a lot of upside and he’ll be a 24-year-old rookie. Once upon a time, 2006 to be precise, the Saints used a seventh-round pick on a receiver who wasn’t supposed to have a lot of upside. That wound up working out very nicely. That pick was used on Marques Colston.

We already showed you my assessment of how the NFC South teams have fared so far in free agency.

Now, let’s turn to another view. Check out this Insider post by Matt Williamson, who grades how every team has done in free agency. Overall, Williamson gave out pretty good grades to the NFC South teams.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers got an A-. They signed receiver Vincent Jackson, guard Carl Nicks and cornerback Eric Wright. Williamson slightly questions giving Wright so much money and says he wishes the Bucs had added a veteran leader or two. But those are about the only knocks anyone can come up with on what Tampa Bay has done.

Williamson gives the Saints a B, which I think is about right. They lost Nicks, receiver Robert Meachem and cornerback Tracy Porter. But I think they were expecting to lose all three after putting the franchise tag on quarterback Drew Brees and re-signing Marques Colston. Given the fact that he had almost no salary-cap room to work with, general manager Mickey Loomis did a pretty remarkable job in signing guard Ben Grubbs, linebacker Curtis Lofton and defensive tackle Brodrick Bunkley.

The Falcons graded out at a C+. That may seem a little high to fans who are angry that the Falcons really didn’t bring anything from outside. But Williamson is generous with his grade because he recognizes the importance of keeping your own players. The Falcons did a nice job of that. The only thing they really lost was Lofton. That is a loss, but the Falcons only wanted him back at the right price and they stayed behind the line they drew in the sand.

The only team that got a bad grade was the Carolina Panthers. They got a D, which tied them (with Arizona) for the lowest grade in the league. I think this one might be a little harsh. Yeah, I realize the Panthers didn’t do much in free agency. But the bright side is, they really didn’t lose anything. The signing of running back/fullback Mike Tolbert was a bit curious because Carolina already was loaded in the backfield. But I think we could end up seeing Jonathan Stewart or DeAngelo Williams getting traded. Even if the Panthers keep all their running backs, that’s not a bad thing. They don’t run the ball as much as they did back in the John Fox days. But look at how New Orleans, a pass-happy team, was able to work in four quality running backs last season.

» AFC Assessments: East | West | North | South » NFC: East | West | North | South

Atlanta Falcons

Key additions: LB Lofa Tatupu, G Vince Manuwai

Key losses: LB Curtis Lofton, WR/KR Eric Weems

Keeping their own: Much to the chagrin of their fans, the Falcons chose not to pursue defensive end Mario Williams or any other big-name free agent. Instead, they focused hard on keeping their own guys. That started before the season ended with tight end Tony Gonzalez re-signing and continued into free agency as the Falcons made it a point to lock up guys like receiver Harry Douglas, defensive end John Abraham and running back Jason Snelling. They also protected cornerback Brent Grimes with the franchise tag.

The only loss that really hurt was Lofton. The Falcons liked him, but new defensive coordinator Mike Nolan didn’t view him as a three-down player. The Falcons still made an effort to keep Lofton, but weren’t willing to pay big money. They brought in the veteran Tatupu, who could be a short-term answer. But there’s a hope within the organization that second-year pro Akeem Dent can step forward and win the job immediately because he’s the guy that’s going to end up there for the long term.

What’s next: Don’t completely rule out the addition of a minor or mid-level free agent or two, but the Falcons are focusing mainly on the draft. Even with Abraham back, they’re still looking to improve their pass rush and defensive ends could be in play. But the Falcons also could add a defensive tackle because Jonathan Babineaux and Peria Jerry are coming off sub-par seasons. Some depth in the secondary and a kick returner also are possible targets.

Key additions: RB/FB Mike Tolbert, G Mike Pollak

Key losses: G Travelle Wharton

The splash came last year: The Panthers haven’t been very active in free agency. That’s largely because they made their big moves coming out of the lockout last year. They signed defensive end Charles Johnson, running back DeAngelo Williams, linebacker Jon Beason, defensive tackle Ron Edwards and linebacker Thomas Davis to huge deals, and that’s why they had very little salary-cap room to work with this year.

But the Panthers didn’t really reap the rewards of some of those signings because Beason, Davis and Edwards all suffered early injuries. That took a toll on the defense. But all three of those guys are back and healthy and that should improve the defense immediately. Carolina developed an explosive offense last season and a strong defense could turn the Panthers into playoff contenders.

What’s next: The Panthers have very little cap room and don’t figure to make many more moves in free agency. They’re focused in on the draft and there needs have been narrowed. They’re likely to address cornerback and defensive tackle early in the draft. But don’t be surprised if they take a linebacker somewhere in the first three or four rounds, and it’s even possible they could target one in the first or second. Davis is coming off his torn ACL and the Panthers don’t know if he’ll be anything close to what he was before the injuries.

New Orleans Saints

Key additions: LB Curtis Lofton, DT Brodrick Bunkley, G Ben Grubbs

Key losses: G Carl Nicks, CB Tracy Porter

Miracle workers: Faced with an extremely tight salary-cap situation and some bizarre off-field events, it’s somewhat amazing the Saints were able to keep as much as they did. They didn’t want to lose Nicks, who might be the best guard in the league and is in his prime. But that’s the price they had to pay to make sure they kept quarterback Drew Brees and receiver Marques Colston, as well as adding players like Lofton, Grubbs and Bunkley.

The Brees situation remains complicated. He's still carrying the franchise tag. The Saints need to get him signed to a long-term deal quickly. Even more than ever, the Saints need Brees’ leadership abilities. They need him signed and happy before their offseason program starts April 16.

What’s next: With the possibility of multiple defensive players facing possible suspensions as a result of the bounty program, the Saints still could be looking to make significant moves. It will be hard to draft players that will make an instant impact because the Saints are without picks in the first two rounds. That means they might have to pull some more help out of free agency, even with limited cap space. They could use another pass-rusher to complement Will Smith. Even after adding Lofton and Bunkley, the Saints still could use depth at linebacker and defensive tackle.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Key additions: WR Vincent Jackson, G Carl Nicks, CB Eric Wright

Key losses: C Jeff Faine

Locking them up: Part of the reason the Bucs didn’t lose much of anything in free agency is because they’ve done a nice job of locking up some core players in recent years. They made it a point to make sure offensive linemen Donald Penn, Davin Joseph and Jeremy Zuttah never got close to leaving. Add Nicks to that group and the Bucs have a chance to have one of the league’s better offensive lines. As the season gets going, some other young players will be rewarded with contract extensions as they show they fit in coach Greg Schiano’s system.

What’s next: After making the initial splash, the Bucs said they’re done with free agency and are focused on the draft. That’s largely true, although the team is keeping a close eye on what remains on the market. This is a team that still is building and will still have needs after the draft. The Bucs have a big need at running back, where they have to find at least one player to complement LeGarrette Blount. The cornerback position could be an early target in the draft even after Ronde Barber decided to return for a 16th season. There also is some uncertainty about Aqib Talib's future. Even if he remains with the team, the Bucs need depth at the position. There also is uncertainty at linebacker and a need for depth at safety and tight end.

We have plenty of new material to work with in our Friday NFC South chat.

We’ve got big stuff, like Tampa Bay’s signings of Vincent Jackson, Carl Nicks and Eric Wright and New Orleans still finding ways to keep Marques Colston and bring in Ben Grubbs. We also can talk about the relative quiet in Carolina and the virtual silence in Atlanta.

The chat starts at 1 p.m. ET. Here’s the link to get you in.

TAMPA, Fla. -- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ agreement with wide receiver Vincent Jackson on Tuesday night was big. Their signing of guard Carl Nicks on Wednesday morning might be even bigger.

Yeah, I know it’s hard to imagine the arrival of a guard topping the presence of a receiver who has a history of making big plays down the field. But the Bucs just might have pulled off that trick by signing Nicks to a five-year deal that’s worth $47.5 million.

Jackson was perhaps the top receiver in free agency. But Nicks is pretty much the unquestioned best guard in the NFL.

He’s also only 26 and may be just hitting his prime. Jackson is going to give quarterback Josh Freeman a big target downfield and, in theory, should open things up for the rest of the receiving corps. But Nicks might end up being even more important.

He’s going to give Freeman plenty of time to find targets downfield. Nicks is dominating as a pass-blocker. He’s also dominant as a run-blocker. The Saints averaged more than 6 yards per carry when running to Nicks’ side last season.

With Nicks and Davin Joseph, the Bucs now have two of the NFC’s Pro Bowl guards from last season. They’ll move Jeremy Zuttah from guard to center. They’ve also got Donald Penn, who is an above-average left tackle. Right tackle Jeremy Trueblood has taken lots of criticism in the past, but his level of play should improve with those four guys around him.

We’ll see how it all shakes out in time. But, on paper, the Bucs suddenly have what could be one of the NFL’s best offensive lines. New coach Greg Schiano has pledged to make the Bucs more physical in all areas, and the arrival of Nicks certainly makes the offensive line much more physical.

But this move has implications beyond Tampa Bay. The loss of Nicks is a blow to the Saints. They wanted to keep him, but found it impossible with a tight salary-cap situation. Nicks also fell third in the pecking order after the Saints put the franchise tag on quarterback Drew Brees and re-signed receiver Marques Colston.

With Nicks and Jahri Evans, the Saints had what many said was the best guard tandem in the league. Nicks and Evans made tackles Jermon Bushrod and Zach Strief and center Brian De La Puente look better than they really are. The Saints have Baltimore's Ben Grubbs in for a visit, and he's decent.

Evans remains and he’s very good. But the Saints no longer have the best guard in the league.

The Bucs do.

The second day of free agency is already shaping up to be just as busy as the first across the NFC South.

As we’ve mentioned several times, New Orleans guard Carl Nicks is meeting with the Buccaneers on Wednesday morning. I’d look for the Bucs to make an offer to make Nicks the highest-paid guard in the NFL (somewhere over $8 million a season). That could make their offensive line a strength and weaken the Saints.

Carolina linebacker Dan Connor has a visit scheduled with the Dallas Cowboys. Connor is looking for a starting job and won’t get that opportunity in Carolina, where Jon Beason is returning from injury.

The Panthers will have guard Jason Brown in for a visit Wednesday. Brown is from Hendersonville, N.C., and played at the University of North Carolina. He has played for the Ravens and Rams. He also played some center earlier in his career, but has moved to guard. The Panthers released veteran Travelle Wharton on Tuesday, while re-signing Geoff Hangartner. They also have Garry Williams returning from an injury. If Brown is signed, he could end up competing with Hangartner for a starting job.

Former New Orleans receiver Robert Meachem didn’t last long on the free-agent market. He’s going to San Diego, where he’ll try to help replace Vincent Jackson, who is joining the Buccaneers. Meachem had a quick flirtation with Buffalo, but the Chargers jumped in and grabbed him with a four-year deal worth $26 million. The Saints liked Meachem, but their salary-cap situation limited them and, once they re-signed Marques Colston, it was obvious Meachem would not return.

It appears the Falcons are letting middle linebacker Curtis Lofton and defensive end John Abraham test free agency. But early indications are that neither player has received any big-money offers so far. I think the Falcons have a plan in place to proceed without Lofton and Abraham, but I also think there’s an outside chance either one could return if the price is right.

Shortly after he agreed to a five-year contract worth about $40 million on Tuesday, the New Orleans Saints sent out a statement from wide receiver Marques Colston.

“This was important to me, to be back with this team in this situation,” said Colston. “I was not looking to chase free agency; it was more important for me to be back in our program, a program we have been building and a program I believe in. The Saints have been loyal to me from the beginning and I want to thank my agent Joel Segal and Saints (general manager) Mickey Loomis for getting this deal done before free agency. Now it is time to get back to work and win some more rings.”

That’s vintage Colston. He doesn’t have the “diva’’ personality so many receivers have and that quote is perhaps the longest I've ever seen from him. Colston is quiet and all about business and even though offseason programs don’t start until April, there’s little doubt Colston will be working out very soon — if he hasn’t been already.

Now, it’s time for Loomis to get back to work and see if he can find a way to keep All-Pro guard Carl Nicks from hitting the free-agent market later Tuesday afternoon. If the Saints, who face some major salary-cap challenges, can find a way to keep Nicks after re-signing Colston and placing the franchise tag on quarterback Drew Brees, then their offseason will be a success.