ESPN NFL

The Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints made this list of the NFL’s top-10 front offices.

No big surprise there. The Saints and Falcons have been consistent winners the past few years, and the front offices undoubtedly have played a big role.

But I am a little surprised that the Saints were ranked No. 9 and the Falcons came in at No. 6. New Orleans general manager Mickey Loomis and the people that work for him, and Atlanta general manager Thomas Dimitroff and the people that work with him are very good at what they do. But I think you have to give the Saints the edge here, because they have won a Super Bowl. The Falcons have won a lot of regular-season games since Dimitroff’s arrival, but they have yet to win a playoff game during his tenure.

Until that changes, I can’t justify putting the Falcons ahead of the Saints in this category. But Loomis obviously is at a critical point in his career. He has yet to get franchise quarterback Drew Brees signed to a long-term deal. Brees has admitted he’s frustrated with what he called a lack of communication. But I still think this deal will get done before the July 16 deadline for franchise players to sign long-term contracts.

If things somehow don’t get worked out and Brees sits out the season, then Loomis immediately falls off the top of this list. But Loomis has been creative and completed complicated contracts in the past. If he signs Brees to a long-term deal, then Loomis stays atop the list for the foreseeable future.

Dimitroff is a very solid No. 2 in the division. He’s had some good drafts and acquired guys like Michael Turner and Tony Gonzalez. But Dimitroff needs guys like Ray Edwards, Dunta Robinson and Asante Samuel to step up. He also needs the Falcons to get some postseason wins.

The Panthers and Buccaneers didn’t make the list of the top-10 front offices. Given the recent history of the two franchises, that’s not surprising. But Carolina’s Marty Hurney is the dean of NFC South general managers, and he’s had some success in the past. Hurney took a major step in rebuilding the Panthers by drafting quarterback Cam Newton last year. If Newton can duplicate his rookie performance, Hurney has a chance to crack the top 10.

Tampa Bay general manager Mark Dominik is entering a crucial season. He outlasted former coach Raheem Morris, and Dominik's offseason looks good on paper, but he needs the players he’s drafted to start showing some positive results.

It’s back to business as usual after a little down time.

Before we start moving ahead, though, there were two events that happened while I was off that I’d like to weigh in on.

The Atlanta Falcons released veteran fullback Ovie Mughelli. The Falcons likely would have preferred to release him back before the start of free agency, but Mughelli still was recovering from a season-ending leg injury suffered last year. Once Mughelli was healthy enough to pass a physical, the Falcons went ahead and pulled the plug. They’re taking a bit of a leap of faith in hoping that rookie Bradie Ewing or Mike Cox can fill the void. Mughelli easily was the best fullback in the NFC South the past few seasons. But age was catching up to Mughelli. That’s something the Falcons have to be conscious of at multiple positions because they still have guys like defensive end John Abraham, center Todd McClure and tight end Tony Gonzalez. This team has to start mixing in some younger players and parting ways with Mughelli was one way to move in that direction.

Mughelli was a great lead blocker for Michael Turner, but I’ve got a feeling new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter isn’t going to be using the power running game quite as much as predecessor Mike Mularkey. Yes, Ewing or Cox will take on that role at times, but I think you’ll see more one-back sets as the Falcons try to get Jacquizz Rodgers on the field more often to take advantage of his speed.

I also wouldn’t be surprised if Koetter uses an H-back from time to time. From the moment the Falcons drafted receiver Kerry Meier, they have raved about his versatility. But we really haven’t seen much of Meier except on special teams. The Falcons are deep at receiver, so using an H-back from time to time could be one way to get Meier onto the field.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers suffered a big blow when defensive end Da'Quan Bowers tore his Achilles tendon in an offseason workout. Even though the length of the offseason program has been shortened and new rules are in place limiting how much contact players can have even during regular-season practices, this type of thing still will happen. Anytime you get athletes out on the field, there is the potential for injury.

This one hurts because the Bucs thought Bowers could develop into a full-time starter in his second season. Bowers has said he expects to return at some point this season, but that may be overly optimistic. Adrian Clayborn and Michael Bennett could form a decent starting tandem, but the Bucs have to hope that someone like George Johnson can step into the third spot in the rotation. Johnson will get his chance between now and roster cuts at the end of the preseason. If he impresses, he could have a spot in the rotation. If not, the Bucs will be looking hard at the waiver wire in late August and early September.

The other thing to ponder here is what the injury means for Bowers’ career. He had micro-fracture knee surgery prior to last year’s draft and that led to a lot of speculation that his career might only last about four years. If Bowers does miss the entire season and the speculation about his knee turns out to be correct, his career could be about half over.

1. Carolina Panthers: The Panthers have the best one-two punch at running back in the entire league in Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams. Although they traded Mike Goodson to the Raiders this offseason, they also signed Mike Tolbert, who could play some fullback as well as running back. The Panthers’ backfield is stacked.

I am extremely high on Stewart and would love to see what he would be able to do if he didn’t have to split time, as evidenced by his whopping 5.4-yard average in 2011. Stewart has power, elusiveness, is very fluid, but also explosive. He can be one of the very best running backs in the NFL. He has come into his own as a receiving option. Stewart’s 47 receptions last season were more than he accumulated over his first three years in the league combined. One knock on Stewart is that he could stand to improve as a pass blocker, but he also just recently turned 25, so his best might be yet to come.

There is also a ton to love about what Williams brings to the table. In 2008, Williams had a monster season, rushing for more than 1,500 yards. He has yet to approach such production again, but like Stewart, Williams averaged 5.4 yards per carry in 2011. Williams has great vision, runs with excellent pad level and I very much believe he has a lot more in the tank even though he recently turned 29. Williams is a solid receiver but seems to have been passed over by Stewart for the bulk of those duties.

Despite his stature, Tolbert also can contribute quite a bit in the passing game. I don’t see him as a fullback, but rather a punishing ball-carrier with an incredibly low center of gravity and excellent power. Tolbert has gotten into the end zone 21 times over the past two seasons and clearly excels near the goal line.

Having quarterback Cam Newton a part of this rushing attack helps a great deal, but the Panthers also will be getting mauling right tackle Jeff Otah back and drafted a similar bruising masher in the run game to play guard in Amini Silatolu. The Panthers should have one of the league’s very best rushing attacks -- and a very dangerous offense overall -- in 2012.

2. New Orleans Saints: The Saints have more backs than they know what to do with, but they distribute the touches from this position extremely effectively. The Saints did not have a first-round pick in this past draft because they traded it to acquire Mark Ingram in the 2011 draft. He appeared in only 10 games during his rookie season due to injury issues. He flashed some of that first-round ability during those games, but overall, it was a rough season for Ingram. However, this former Heisman Trophy winner has true “bell cow” running back traits. Ingram has an excellent combination of leverage, power and vision with a fine burst through the hole. He can make yardage on his own and has the temperament to carry the load. Ingram’s knee now has to be a bit of a concern, though.

The Saints’ most dynamic player at the position -- maybe in the entire league -- is Darren Sproles. He is pure electricity as a runner or receiver. And the Saints use Sproles’ talents to perfection. Drew Brees and the Saints’ coaching staff do a fantastic job of using personnel, formation and motion to get Sproles in advantageous situations -- either as a receiver against an inferior coverage player or as a runner against minimal defenders in the box. And Sproles excels when used in such a manner. As you would expect with his diminutive stature, Sproles can struggle in protection. But despite his size, Sproles hasn’t missed a game in the past four years and has missed only two games in his six-year career.

As third running backs go, Pierre Thomas has no equal in the NFL. Thomas is a potent blend of what both Ingram and Sproles bring to the table. Thomas is somewhat of a jack-of-all-trades, but a master of none. Thomas would start for several teams in the league right now. He finished the 2011 season with just under 1,000 combined yards.

Further showing off their embarrassment of riches as this position, the Saints also have Chris Ivory. Ivory isn’t flashy or dynamic, but he runs with great conviction and power. Getting Ivory the touches he deserves could prove difficult, unless Ingram’s knee remains a major problem.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Buccaneers traded into the late first round to select Doug Martin. Considering Greg Schiano’s history at Rutgers favoring versatile two-way running backs like Ray Rice and Brian Leonard, I expect Martin to quickly grab ahold of the starting job in Tampa Bay over LeGarrette Blount.

Blount is a very powerful runner and is good overall with the ball in his hands, but he has fumbling issues and offers little as a receiver or in protection, which is just too much of an advantage to the opposing defense when he is on the field. But if given carries or if the Bucs are playing with a lead, which was rare last year, Blount can pound the opponent into submission. His career average of 4.6 yards per carry should not be easily dismissed, especially considering the circumstances he was under last year.

But Martin is the better all-around talent compared to Blount. A compact bowling ball with very good vision and a natural skill set for churning out yardage, Martin is also highly adept as a receiver out of the backfield. The Bucs also used a seventh-round pick on Michael Smith, which further shows their lack of trust in Blount.

Mossis Madu is also in the mix for Tampa Bay. As shown by their investments at guard, the Buccaneers are a run-first team. That is what Schiano wants and his offseason moves strongly indicate that is the approach Tampa Bay will be taking going forward, along with taking some shots deep downfield to Vincent Jackson. Martin should get the bulk of the running back touches, but there might be enough to keep both lead backs fed.

4. Atlanta Falcons: In a division loaded with high-quality running backs, Atlanta’s backfield is last on my list. Michael Turner is the lead back here. I see Turner as a declining player who needs a high volume of touches to be effective. Although Turner is a decent pass blocker, he offers very little as a receiver, which is a huge detriment in today’s NFL.

After Week 11 last season, Turner had only one game in which he rushed for more than 76 yards. Turner finished the season with 1,340 yards on the ground and six 100-yard days, but his performance was much too up and down on a week-to-week basis for a back of his nature. I am not implying Turner is over-the-hill. He isn’t. Turner still has value and can be very effective if used properly. But he just isn’t what he once was in terms of his elusiveness and burst. Amazingly though, Turner can still break off long runs. He also has missed only five games over the past five seasons, but I think the Falcons would be wise to get some insurance for their 30-year-old back.

Jacquizz Rodgers is ahead of the game with his blitz pickup for a young back, but now the Falcons need to enhance his role catching the football. That seems like the next logical step in this dynamic player’s development. As a runner, Rodgers certainly isn’t built to be a lead guy, but he shows some power for his size and is competitive in all phases of the position. He could break out in 2012.

Antone Smith and Dimitri Nance are also on Atlanta’s roster, but it seems logical that the Falcons will add another veteran running back with size to back up Turner.

At fullback, the Falcons have one of the best lead blockers in recent years in Ovie Mughelli, but the usage of a fifth-round pick on Bradie Ewing, another downhill hammer blocker, could be the beginning of the end for Mughelli in Atlanta. The Falcons also have Mike Cox, a pure battering-ram fullback, in the equation. But it is unlikely they keep three blocking fullbacks on the roster.

The Atlanta Falcons have had the quietest offseason of any NFC South team. But that doesn't mean they won't have some changes in their starting lineup.

Now that the NFL draft is over, let's take a look at my best guess at what Atlanta's starting lineup will look like in September.

OFFENSE

• QB Matt Ryan

• RB Michael Turner

• FB Ovie Mughelli

• WR Roddy White

• WR Julio Jones

• TE Tony Gonzalez

• LT Sam Baker (or someone not yet on the roster)

• LG Justin Blalock

• C Joe Hawley (I’m guessing he starts ahead of Todd McClure)

• RG Peter Konz (unless he ends up playing center)

• RT Tyson Clabo

DEFENSE

• DE John Abraham

• DT Corey Peters

• DT Jonathan Babineaux

• DE Ray Edwards

• OLB Sean Weatherspoon

• MLB Akeem Dent (Falcons would like him to beat out veteran Lofa Tatupu)

• OLB Stephen Nicholas

• CB Brent Grimes

• CB Dunta Robinson (Asante Samuel will play as much as Grimes and Robinson)

• SS William Moore

• FS Thomas DeCoud

SPECIALISTS

• K Matt Bryant

• P Matt Bosher

• PR Dominique Franks

• KR Jacquizz Rodgers

As it turns out, the Atlanta Falcons aren’t planning to jump over that playoff hurdle that’s been talked so much about.

They simply plan to plow right through it. The latest evidence came Friday night when the Falcons used their second-round draft pick (No. 55 overall) on Wisconsin center (more on that in a moment) Peter Konz.

It would have been very easy for the Falcons to overreact and do something crazy after an embarrassing January playoff loss to the New York Giants. Yeah, they could have made a leap in free agency for defensive end Mario Williams, which seemed to be the preferred rout by 99 of every 100 Falcons fans.

But the fact is, if the Falcons had landed Williams back in March, they wouldn’t be as good a team as they are today. Seriously.

Yeah, I know it sounds a little ridiculous to say the Falcons are better off without a guy who could have brought them double-digit sacks. But it’s the truth. Had the Falcons signed Williams, they would have had to gut their existing roster.

The salary-cap space Williams would have taken up would have prevented the Falcons from keeping guys like receiver Harry Douglas, safety Thomas DeCoud, defensive end John Abraham, center Todd McClure and running back Jason Snelling. They might not have been able to fit cornerback Brent Grimes under the salary cap with the franchise tag. Even if they did, they would have had to have made some dramatic moves -- like releasing receiver Roddy White, running back Michael Turner or fullback Ovie Mughelli.

Any or all of those moves seemed possible in the immediate aftermath of the loss in New York. But owner Arthur Blank, who earlier in his tenure may have been prone to overreacting, sat down with coach Mike Smith and general manager Thomas Dimitroff and coolly came up with a plan on how the Falcons can take the next step.

Smith and Dimitroff have had four straight winning seasons, but have yet to win a playoff game. When you’ve had four straight winning seasons, you don’t blow a team up. You keep it together and fix the things that are wrong.

Without flash, that’s precisely what the Falcons have done and Friday night was just another step.

“We were really honed in on the offensive line as you can imagine,’’ Dimitroff said, moments after selecting Konz. “We need to get more stout on this offensive line.’’

There’s no doubt about that. Let’s consider this item from ESPN Stats & Information: The Falcons were one of 10 teams to average less than 4.0 yards per rush between the tackles last season. That came despite the fact they have a bruising runner in Turner.

The Falcons also didn’t do a great job of protecting quarterback Matt Ryan. That failure was the major reason why all the downfield passing we heard about after the Falcons traded up to draft Julio Jones didn’t fully materialize last year. The Falcons were soft up front and it cost offensive line coach Paul Boudreau his job.

Other than left tackle Sam Baker, a first-round pick in 2008, the Falcons really haven’t made huge investments in their offensive line. The arrival of Konz changes that.

Although he played center at Wisconsin, Dimitroff said “we’re listing him as a guard/center right now’’.

It’s no big secret McClure is at the end of his career. He’s 35 and it shows. The Falcons brought him back as insurance, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be their starting center on opening day. Guard Joe Hawley also can play center. Hawley also could factor into the situation at guard, where he played last season along with Justin Blalock and Garrett Reynolds. Add Konz to that mix and it’s pretty clear the Falcons are going to throw all their guards and centers onto the field in training camp and the preseason and see which of the three emerge as the best trio.

“Let’s come in here and have some great competition and see who can protect Matt Ryan the best,’’ Dimitroff said. “We want production and we want guys who can finish. In Peter, we have a guy who can do both of those.’’

Look, I’m not saying a guard/center from Wisconsin is going to come in the second round and push right through that hurdle all by himself. Konz is just a part of the puzzle and maybe fans can finally see that picture coming together now.

There’s a reason why Atlanta didn’t have a first-round pick this year. Jones was the first-round pick for last year and this year and he’s better than any receiver in this year’s draft. There was a reason why the Falcons didn’t make to splurge in free agency. They didn’t have the salary-cap room to do it without ripping a good team apart.

Little by little, they’ve made moves that have them gaining speed as they head for that hurdle. Just this week, they traded a late-round draft pick for four-time Pro Bowl cornerback Asante Samuel and quickly signed him to a cap-friendly deal.

In theory, Samuel should team with Grimes and Dunta Robinson to give the Falcons one of the league’s best cornerback tandems. In theory, Konz should team with all those other offensive linemen to make the Falcons tougher up front.

Yeah, there still are a few needs -- the pass rush, depth at tight end and maybe some more help on the outside of the offensive line. The Falcons are well aware of all that. They’ll address those needs in the rest of the draft and after it when the time and the price are right. But, now, you can see their offseason plan taking shape.

If the Falcons had gone out and paid a fortune for Williams, they wouldn’t be making solid, safe picks like Konz because they’d be desperately trying to repair all the other damage they did to their team.

Time for a morning look at the headlines from around the division.

• Tampa Bay running back LeGarrette Blount previously was quoted as saying he didn’t want the Bucs to draft Trent Richardson. But Blount said Wednesday he would welcome the Alabama running back if the Buccaneers draft him.

• You might want to check out this video of Atlanta running back Michael Turner, who thought he was doing some modeling for a men’s fashion magazine. Instead, the photo shoot was all a joke, set up by Turner’s friend, Pittsburgh linebacker Lamar Woodley.

• Troy offensive lineman James Brown could be a target for the Saints in the middle rounds. The Saints have a good history when taking offensive linemen from smaller schools in the middle rounds. They got guard Jahri Evans and tackle Jermon Bushrod in the fourth round.

• Defensive tackle Fletcher Cox, who appears to be a candidate to go to Carolina with the No. 9 overall pick, could be the earliest Mississippi State player drafted since safety Walt Harris went No. 13 to Chicago in 1996.

• The Bucs are experimenting by using veteran cornerback Ronde Barber at safety in their minicamp that ends Thursday. Coach Greg Schiano said he’s been impressed with what he’s seen so far. Schiano said he’s not sure if Barber will stay at the position. Although Barber doesn’t have traditional safety size, Schiano said he thinks the veteran is big enough to make an impact as a safety.

• Former New Orleans defensive coordinator Gregg Williams has been in touch with league officials to make sure he does everything possible to have a chance to be reinstated after this season. Williams, who left after last season to join the Rams, was suspended indefinitely for his role in the Saints’ bounty program.

Given the way Atlanta Falcons fans have reacted to what the team has done (or, more accurately, not done) this offseason, I was expecting Arthur Blank to pull out earmuffs as he reached into his pocket just before the start of an interview last week.

It didn’t happen. Instead, the owner of the Falcons pulled out a pair of sunglasses. This was a rare step outside during the NFL owners meetings in Palm Beach, Fla. He slipped on the shades, surveyed the Atlantic Ocean, sat down on a bench and started explaining, in great detail, the course his team has chosen.

Maybe this will, once and for all, stop all the screaming in Atlanta about how the Falcons didn’t pursue LB Mario Williams and didn’t really do much of anything in free agency. Blank has a detailed answer for that and, when you listen, it should all start to make sense.

There was a moment when I looked directly at Blank, but could have sworn I was seeing and hearing Gene Hackman. It was almost exactly like the scene in “Hoosiers," where the basketball coach played by Hackman firmly tells a referee “my team is on the court" after a player fouls out and the coach elects to go with four players instead of turning back to a player who had defied orders.

Blank has said, “My team is on the field."

Yeah, the marquee free-agent signings have been linebacker Lofa Tatupu and guard Vince Manuwai. And Atlanta fans aren’t exactly jumping up and down about the fact that the Falcons re-signed defensive end John Abraham and center Todd McClure; it wouldn’t have surprised anyone if they decided to retire. Throw in the re-signing of role players Thomas DeCoud, Jason Snelling and Harry Douglas, and it’s easy to see why a lot of Atlanta fans believe the Falcons haven’t done a single thing to get better after ending last season with an embarrassing playoff loss to the New York Giants.

But Blank has an explanation, so let’s hear it.

“I feel good about where we are,’’ Blank said. “I know we didn’t make a big splash going into free agency. But that really wasn’t our intention going into this year. We really felt we had a lot of talent. We were fortunate that we had the opportunity to bring in the two new coordinators and a few other coaches. At some point, it’s not even a matter of if the contents are correct. Sometimes, it’s a matter of who is delivering the message and whether the players are hearing it or not.’’

The man makes a good point. The 2011 Falcons team that went 10-6 (and didn't play with much consistency) was essentially the same team that went 13-3 and played with a great deal of consistency in 2010. The 2012 Falcons have largely the same roster as the previous two teams. In the eyes of Blank, general manager Thomas Dimitroff and coach Mike Smith, the problem last season and the reason this team hasn’t won a playoff game under the current administration isn’t about the roster.

Maybe the roster was just fine, but the coaching staff and the schemes were holding back the Falcons. Offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey left after the season to become head coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder left after the season to become the defensive coordinator at Auburn. Both men left on their own, but I get the impression that if they hadn’t, they might have been shown the door.

Let’s be honest here. Mularkey’s offensive system reached its peak in 2010 and didn’t get any better even with the addition of talented rookie receiver Julio Jones last season. VanGorder’s defense was solid but never dominant, which was a disappointment because the Falcons have some individual talent on defense. Mularkey has been replaced by Dirk Koetter, and VanGorder has been replaced by Mike Nolan.

“I love the selections that Smitty and Thomas made,’’ Blank said.

I get the sense that the days of QB Matt Ryan rolling out and almost always checking down are over. I get the sense that the days of sitting back in the Cover 2 are long gone.

“Dirk and I have had numerous discussions in terms of what our players are capable of doing,’’ Smith said during the meetings. “I think, first and foremost, you have to design your schemes toward what the players are capable of doing. We’ve spent a lot of time identifying the strengths and weakness of all our guys and what they do well and what they don’t do well, and we want to put together an offense that accentuates their strengths.’’

In other words, the Falcons aren’t going to be handing the ball to Michael Turner 300-plus times a season. They’re going to try to take some shots downfield with Jones and Roddy White, and they’re going to get versatile second-year running back Jacquizz Rodgers more involved in the offense. They also will try to put Ryan in a position where he can go from being a good quarterback to an elite one.

Smith said he’s had similar discussions with Nolan, the former head coach of the San Francisco 49ers who has had success as a defensive coordinator elsewhere. Nolan is noted for producing aggressive defenses. Some minor tweaks to attitude and scheme could provide an upgrade over the VanGorder units that never were able to establish any sort of identity.

Blank made quite a bit of noise after the loss to the Giants about how simply getting to the playoffs wasn’t good enough. He wants his team to win playoff games and contend for the Super Bowl.

That really hasn’t changed. But after the heat of the moment cooled a bit, Blank, Smith and Dimitroff sat back and realized they weren’t all that far from where they wanted to be. Early in his days as an owner, Blank was portrayed as hands-on and reactionary. I don’t think those descriptions really fit him anymore and I think he’s learned from his past. I think Blank is at a stage where he remains plugged in but trusts Smith and Dimitroff to make the football decisions.

“I went back and studied this over a long period of time in the NFL and studied the great teams,’’ Blank said. “Consistency is very important in terms of leadership with coaches and players. The great teams, what they have done is they’ve kept their head coaches for a longer period of time, kept their general managers for a longer period of time, and they identified early enough their core players and they extended them. The football staff has done a great job of identifying the players that can help us and keep them.’’

The salary cap also was a factor in the Falcons’ approach to the offseason. Pursuing Williams or some other big names in free agency would have meant sacrificing continuity. The only key player the Falcons lost was middle linebacker Curtis Lofton -- and that was a calculated loss. Lofton wanted a lot of money and Atlanta placed a limit on his value. If the Falcons had made just one or two big free-agency moves and kept Lofton, guys like Abraham, McClure, DeCoud, Douglas and Snelling wouldn’t be on the roster. The team would have had to cut other players to free up cap room. The Falcons could have made a splash, but it would have left them with all sorts of holes.

“What you have to look at is, this is not like baseball,’’ Blank said. “There are limits. This is real money and not monopoly money … one of the beauties in the NFL is that in July and August fans of every team think their team has a chance to go to the playoffs or to go to the Super Bowl and win it. The salary-cap system forces you to make some tough choices. Thomas and Smitty and their staffs made these choices because they believe they were the ones that will give us the biggest bang for the buck going forward. I certainly tested their logic and asked questions, but I think their plan was all very sound and well-formulated.’’

Like it or not, Blank is putting his team (the one chosen by Smith and Dimitroff) on the field this fall. You might not like it now and that’s fine with Blank. He thinks you’ll like it a lot more as the season goes along.

PALM BEACH, Fla. -- I got to spend some quality time with Atlanta Falcons coach Mike Smith at the owners meetings and I’ve got a bunch of different nuggets I’ll share with you over the coming days.

I’m not going in any particular order, but I’m going to start off with Jacquizz Rodgers. Most of you know I rarely make predictions and I’m not going to break tradition, especially when we’re only in March. But if you asked me which way I’m leaning right now as far as a breakout player or most-improved player for the division in 2012, I’d say Rodgers.

Part of it is based on what I saw out of Rodgers in a limited role last season. But I’m not a scout or a coach. My conversation with Smith about Rodgers is why I’m buying into this one. I could sense genuine excitement in Smith’s voice as he talked about the running back the Falcons drafted in the fifth round last season.

There’s another factor at work here. That’s Atlanta feature back Michael Turner. Smith already has said several times this offseason the Falcons want to limit Turner’s carries going forward. Smith said that again to me and I asked him how the Falcons will make up for those carries. He’s not going to hand me the playbook or his game plan, but I think his answer was fairly telling.

“Jacquizz figures into that quite a bit,’’ Smith said. “We drafted him to be a change-of-pace back and we found out very quickly that he’s a guy that is more than a change-of-pace back. Even though he’s short, he’s not little. He’s a guy we feel like we can integrate more into our offense.’’

I have little doubt that’s going to happen. Rodgers only carried 57 times for 205 yards last season and caught 21 passes for 188 yards. But -- rare fantasy football advice here -- those numbers are going to jump.

The Falcons found out Rodgers can run the ball better than they expected. They’ll run him more next season. They thought he could catch passes out of the backfield and he proved that. He’ll get even more chances.

Heck, with new coordinator Dirk Koetter and Rodgers, the Falcons might no longer be the NFL team that utilizes the screen pass the least.

The Atlanta Falcons just announced they have agreed to contract terms with running back Jason Snelling.

Seemingly, that means the Falcons will go with their top three running backs from last season. Michael Turner has been the starter, with Snelling and rookie Jacquizz Rodgers each playing backup roles last season.

But I’m not sure the Falcons are done at running back. They could add another runner in free agency or the draft.

Coach Mike Smith and general manager Thomas Dimitroff already have said several times that they plan to cut down Turner’s carries in 2012. That’s a good idea, because Turner has handled a ton of carries the past four seasons and his production slumped at the end of last season, although a lingering groin injury probably played a role in that.

Even if the Falcons stick with what they have, look for Snelling and Rodgers to get more playing time. Rodgers is clearly a speed back, and can be used in passing situations. But Snelling, who also can play fullback, can handle some of the snaps that have gone to Turner in the past.

Snelling, like Turner, is a power runner. He also has shown decent ability as a receiver out of the backfield.

The Atlanta Falcons quietly continue to move through the process of getting ready for the start of free agency.

After placing the franchise tag on cornerback Brent Grimes, the Falcons are now dealing with some other players that were not under contract for 2012.

The team announced Tuesday morning that tight end Michael Palmer and running back Antone Smith have signed their exclusive-rights tenders.

Palmer, who joined the Falcons in 2010, isn’t known as a pass-catcher, and that’s not needed because Atlanta has Tony Gonzalez in that role. But Palmer has played an important role in the offense as a blocker.

Smith has spent the past two seasons with the Falcons, playing primarily on special teams. But he also has some ability as a running back, and he could get a chance to show more of that moving forward. The Falcons have made it clear they want to lighten the load of feature back Michael Turner.

They have Jacquizz Rodgers, who is likely to get more use as a speed back in his second season. But Smith could compete with Jason Snelling as part of the rotation.

Time for a look at the Sunday morning headlines from around the division.

Carolina coach Ron Rivera said reserve quarterback Jimmy Clausen remains in the mix for next season. Let’s see if that holds true next month when Clausen is due a roster bonus of nearly $1 million. That’s a lot to pay a guy that was inactive for every game last season.

Atlanta coach Mike Smith revealed defensive end Ray Edwards had postseason knee surgery. Smith said the knee was bothering Edwards during the season. That may explain why Edwards, Atlanta’s top free-agent pickup last year, had such a quiet season.

The Falcons reportedly are exploring the possibility of extending quarterback Matt Ryan’s contract. Although Ryan has two years remaining on his original deal, this would make sense because the Falcons could knock down Ryan’s cap figure for this year and create more room to sign free agents. An extension for Ryan also would silence the critics who are saying that the quarterback is not the long-term answer for the Falcons.

The Falcons are considering the possibility of using the franchise tag on cornerback Brent Grimes. That would cost the team $10.6 million.

LSU defensive tackle Michael Brockers, who many are projecting as Carolina’s pick at No. 9, has decided not to run the 40-yard dash or do the bench press at the combine. Brockers said he will do both at his pro day.

For the second time this offseason, Smith has publicly declared the Falcons will limit running back Michael Turner’s carries going forward. Makes sense because Turner has handled a lot of carries the past four seasons and he’s not getting any younger. Turner still will be the feature back, but the Falcons plan to give more playing time to Jacquizz Rodgers.

Tampa Bay general manager Mark Dominik said the team wants to re-sign kicker Connor Barth. If that doesn’t happen, Dominik implied the Bucs would use the franchise tag on Barth.

Jeff Duncan writes that the Saints’ offseason will be considered a success if the team can find a way to keep quarterback Drew Brees, guard Carl Nicks and receiver Marques Colston. He’s right, but that’s going to be a challenge. The Saints have been so tied up with the Brees deal that Nicks and Colston said talks about new deals for them haven’t begun. It’s likely those talks will heat up as soon as a deal gets done with Brees and the Saints could use the franchise tag on Nicks and Colston. Even if the Saints find a way to keep all three, they probably will lose some free agents they’d like to keep. Receiver Robert Meachem and cornerback Tracy Porter are likely to draw some interest from outside and the Saints might not have enough cap room to keep them.

The Bucs reportedly have paid $500,000 to Rutgers as part of the buyout clause coach Greg Schiano owed the university. A Rutgers spokesperson said a $300,000 balance remains on a home loan that Rutgers gave Schiano.

There’s a debate among Tampa Bay fans about whether the Buccaneers should draft LSU cornerback Morris Claiborne or Alabama running back Trent Richardson with their first-round pick.

I don’t think either would be a mistake because the Bucs have needs at both positions. But there’s a longstanding rule of thumb in the NFL that you don’t take a running back early in the draft.

If you think that theory is outdated, you may want to take a look at this Insider post from Football Outsiders. It lays out some pretty convincing evidence that there’s not a lot to be gained by drafting a running back early in the first round.

The five leading rushers over the last five seasons are Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Steven Jackson, Chris Johnson and Michael Turner. Those five have combined for two playoff wins as starting running backs (and that doesn’t include two playoff victories Turner had as a backup to LaDainian Tomlinson with the 2007 Chargers).

The column then points to the backfields of the two Super Bowl teams. The New York Giants had Ahmad Bradshaw (a seventh-round pick) and Brandon Jacobs (a fourth-round pick). The New England Patriots had a pair of undrafted running backs in BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead as well as third-round pick Stevan Ridley.

Yes, the Bucs need someone to pair in the backfield with LeGarrette Blount. But, unless they believe Richardson is the kind of player who can be an exception to a rule, they might be wise to wait until later in the draft -- or use free agency -- to add a running back.

Surprisingly, Friday’s NFC South stayed pretty much an NFC South chat and didn’t become a Super Bowl chat. That’s a tribute to the die-hard fans in the NFC South and I’m grateful for that.

Let’s take a look at the chat highlights:

Chris (Atlanta): Let’s incorporate the NFC South and Super Bowl in the same question. Since Thomas Dimtroff has been in Atlanta, he seems to be trying to create New England South here in Atlanta. What are the odds that Atlanta gets rid of high priced Michael Turner and becomes a heavy passing team like the New England Patriots?

Pat Yasinskas: Dimitroff is also the guy that brought Turner in in the first place. Smith and Dimitroff believe in having a solid running game. Turner could leave at some point, but they'd bring in someone else. I don't see them just giving up on running game.

Pabo (korea): Hey pat, any chance the bucs take a look at peyton manning, since the franchise hasn't been able to sellout any games. I think peyton will sellout games and get the bucs to the playoffs, they can trade freeman and try to get a quarterback in either this years or next years draft to sit back and learn from the greatest.

Pat Yasinskas: You serious??? That doesn't fit their plan at all. They're building with youth. You bring in Peyton and he plays for a year or two and that's it. Meantime, you'd be showing Freeman the door. He's a guy who could be your QB for the next 10 or 12 years.

Gary (Chicago): The Pro Bowl has to be one of the worst games to watch, ever. With this being said, what are your thoughts on changing the format to a NFL "Futures" game (ie. Senior Bowl) and recognize the all stars during halftime? Viewership would be huge with the draft junkies....

Pat Yasinskas: I'd be all for it. Might have to cut through some red tape with the NCAA, but it sounds like a great idea to me. Pro Bowl always has been a non-event and it got far worse this year.

CP (Brooklyn, NY): Falcons have to bring back Abe don't they? I mean there is no other pass rush on the roster and from the looks of Free Agency, there's nothing out there either, especially without a first rounder...Thoughts Pat?

Pat Yasinskas: Yeah, unless somebody else gets cut somewhere else, I don't think there's much choice. Abe is aging, but he's still their best pass rusher.

Steve A (Ventura CA): Pat! Love your blog, I check it daily. Whats your take on the big name free agents the Saints have next year? What do you anticipate the Saints doing with Will Smith, Robert Meachem, Tracy Porter, and the 2 big guys up front Franklin and Rogers? I think they should all be cut because none of them stepped up and really did anything this year. I agree that Colston, Nicks are must stays, and even Vilma should be given another shot, but everyone else should be left walking. Thoughts?

Pat Yasinskas: Obviously, Brees stays and I think they'll find a way to keep Colston and Nicks. Might be tough to keep Porter and Meachem. They might bring Franklin back for one more year. Will Smith has huge cap figure and they could clear up a ton of room by cutting him. But they don't have another pass rusher. So the answer there might be to restructure Smith. Vilma's a tough call. I know he's almost an icon. But he's making big money and his play slipped last season. The knee obviously was part of the reason for that. But, at his age, you have to worry that the knee could be a chronic thing.

ronde barber (one buccaneer place ( andy )): am i going to come back? retire? go to the redskins and play for raheem?

Pat Yasinskas: You tell us. A lot of it is up to you and if you want to continue playing or not.

Mike (Winston Salem): I sent you a letter about Jerry Richardson this morning. He called my cell phone yesterday after I wrote him a letter. I hope you got to read my letter. It was such a cool experience. The Panthers are so lucky to have him as our owner.

Pat Yasinskas: Will check out your letter. Mr. Richardson is one of the classiest people in the NFL. Heck, he's one of the classiest people I know, period.

Here’s the entire transcript of Friday’s NFC South chat.

Only two NFC South running backs were on the field for more than 50 percent of their team’s offensive plays.

Carolina’s Jonathan Stewart led the division at 55.2 percent. Stewart was on the field for 577 of Carolina’s 1,046 offensive plays. Atlanta’s Michael Turner took part in 52.2 percent of his offense’s plays. Turner was on the field for 588 of 1,127 snaps.

Neither player was in the top 10 among the league’s running backs. Philadelphia’s LeSean McCoy led the league as he played on 81.1 percent of his team’s snaps.

There were a few other items of interest when it came to playing time for NFC South running backs. While Stewart led the division, his teammate, DeAngelo Williams, was third in the NFC South at 42.73 percent, just ahead of New Orleans’ Darren Sproles 42.71 percent.

Tampa Bay was the only team without a single running back to play at least 40 percent of his team’s snaps. Starter LeGarrette Blount participated in 38.4 of the Bucs’ snaps, which was a problem. The Bucs were hesitant to use Blount as a pass blocker or receiver, so their offense was predictable because Tampa Bay generally was running when Blount was on the field.

Blount’s backup, Kregg Lumpkin, was on the field for 35.9 percent of Tampa Bay’s snaps. Earnest Graham also split time at fullback and tailback for the Bucs before suffering a season-ending injury. Graham took part in 18.8 percent of Tampa Bay's offensive plays.

Here’s the rundown on the percentage of plays the rest of the NFC South running backs took part in:

Pierre Thomas, Saints, 33.8.

Jacquizz Rodgers, Falcons, 28.

Jason Snelling, Falcons, 27.9.

Mark Ingram, Saints, 18.6.

Chris Ivory, Saints, 10.4.

Mossis Madu, Buccaneers, 5.9.

Josh Vaughn, Panthers, 1.1.

Mike Goodson, Panthers, 0.4.

Antone Smith, Falcons 0.2

It was a big year for offense in the NFC South. The New Orleans Saints set all sorts of records. The Carolina Panthers lit up scoreboards and, when the Atlanta Falcons were on, they sometimes were spectacular.

That made for some difficult choices, but here’s my All-NFC South offense.

Tackle: Jordan Gross, Panthers. He’s getting along in years, but Gross is still the best tackle in the division.

Tackle: Jermon Bushrod, Saints. This was a really tough call because Tampa Bay’s Donald Penn seemed destined for this spot, but his play slipped as the Bucs collapsed and lost their last 10 games. I refuse to put any offensive lineman from Atlanta on this team, so I’m going with Bushrod almost by default. I know he made the Pro Bowl, but I’m not convinced Bushrod is anything more than an ordinary left tackle. But he’s better than any other tackle the NFC South had to offer.

Guard: Carl Nicks, Saints. He might be the best guard in the NFL.

Guard: Jahri Evans, Saints. If Nicks isn’t the best guard in the NFL, then Evans is.

Center: Ryan Kalil, Panthers. He’s becoming a Pro Bowl regular and might be the best center in the league.

Wide receiver: Steve Smith, Panthers. Rookie quarterback Cam Newton came along and revitalized Smith’s career. But I also think Smith deserves a lot of the credit for Newton’s success.

Wide receiver: Marques Colston, Saints. I went back and forth on this one between Colston and Atlanta’s Roddy White and Tampa Bay’s Mike Williams also got some consideration. I’m joking. Williams didn’t get one bit of consideration. White’s numbers were slightly better than Colston’s in terms of catches and receiving yards. But Colston missed a couple games with a broken collarbone and still had very nice numbers in an offense where there are a ton of other options. White had nice numbers, but he didn’t look like the dominant receiver he was a year ago. White led the league in drops.

Tight end: Jimmy Graham, Saints. This one was easy. Atlanta’s Tony Gonzalez had a very nice season and is the best tight end in history. But Graham had one of the most prolific seasons ever by a tight end in only his second season. Graham should only continue to get better and, if he stays healthy, he could eventually pass Gonzalez as the best tight end ever.

Fullback: Jed Collins, Saints. In his first real NFL season (Collins was with Cleveland in 2008), he emerged as a steady role player in the league’s best offense. Collins didn’t have much in the way of numbers, but his blocking was a key factor in the offenses’ success. If Atlanta’s Ovie Mughelli hadn’t gotten injured, he’d be in this spot. But Collins is a worthy replacement.

Running back: Darren Sproles, Saints. Sproles ended up with an NFL record for all-purpose yards. Out of the backfield, he contributed as a runner and receiver and created enormous matchup problems for opposing defenses.

Running back: Michael Turner. Yeah, I'm going with two running backs because it's my team, I can want and there are two guys that deserve to be on here. Turner looked slow for most of the second half of the season. But he still rushed for 1,340 yards and 11 touchdowns. That's not a bad season by any measure.

Quarterback: Drew Brees, Saints. He threw for a league-record 5,476 yards and also passed for 46 touchdowns. Brees has been great for a long time, but he took his game to another level. He’s the reason the Saints won 13 games without a defense.