NFC South: Mike Cox

NFC South programming notes

May, 14, 2012
May 14
8:13
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It’s back to business as usual after a little down time.

Before we start moving ahead, though, there were two events that happened while I was off that I’d like to weigh in on.

The Atlanta Falcons released veteran fullback Ovie Mughelli. The Falcons likely would have preferred to release him back before the start of free agency, but Mughelli still was recovering from a season-ending leg injury suffered last year. Once Mughelli was healthy enough to pass a physical, the Falcons went ahead and pulled the plug. They’re taking a bit of a leap of faith in hoping that rookie Bradie Ewing or Mike Cox can fill the void. Mughelli easily was the best fullback in the NFC South the past few seasons. But age was catching up to Mughelli. That’s something the Falcons have to be conscious of at multiple positions because they still have guys like defensive end John Abraham, center Todd McClure and tight end Tony Gonzalez. This team has to start mixing in some younger players and parting ways with Mughelli was one way to move in that direction.

Mughelli was a great lead blocker for Michael Turner, but I’ve got a feeling new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter isn’t going to be using the power running game quite as much as predecessor Mike Mularkey. Yes, Ewing or Cox will take on that role at times, but I think you’ll see more one-back sets as the Falcons try to get Jacquizz Rodgers on the field more often to take advantage of his speed.

I also wouldn’t be surprised if Koetter uses an H-back from time to time. From the moment the Falcons drafted receiver Kerry Meier, they have raved about his versatility. But we really haven’t seen much of Meier except on special teams. The Falcons are deep at receiver, so using an H-back from time to time could be one way to get Meier onto the field.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers suffered a big blow when defensive end Da'Quan Bowers tore his Achilles tendon in an offseason workout. Even though the length of the offseason program has been shortened and new rules are in place limiting how much contact players can have even during regular-season practices, this type of thing still will happen. Anytime you get athletes out on the field, there is the potential for injury.

This one hurts because the Bucs thought Bowers could develop into a full-time starter in his second season. Bowers has said he expects to return at some point this season, but that may be overly optimistic. Adrian Clayborn and Michael Bennett could form a decent starting tandem, but the Bucs have to hope that someone like George Johnson can step into the third spot in the rotation. Johnson will get his chance between now and roster cuts at the end of the preseason. If he impresses, he could have a spot in the rotation. If not, the Bucs will be looking hard at the waiver wire in late August and early September.

The other thing to ponder here is what the injury means for Bowers’ career. He had micro-fracture knee surgery prior to last year’s draft and that led to a lot of speculation that his career might only last about four years. If Bowers does miss the entire season and the speculation about his knee turns out to be correct, his career could be about half over.

Ranking the NFC South RB situations

May, 9, 2012
May 9
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1. Carolina Panthers: The Panthers have the best one-two punch at running back in the entire league in Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams. Although they traded Mike Goodson to the Raiders this offseason, they also signed Mike Tolbert, who could play some fullback as well as running back. The Panthers’ backfield is stacked.

I am extremely high on Stewart and would love to see what he would be able to do if he didn’t have to split time, as evidenced by his whopping 5.4-yard average in 2011. Stewart has power, elusiveness, is very fluid, but also explosive. He can be one of the very best running backs in the NFL. He has come into his own as a receiving option. Stewart’s 47 receptions last season were more than he accumulated over his first three years in the league combined. One knock on Stewart is that he could stand to improve as a pass blocker, but he also just recently turned 25, so his best might be yet to come.

There is also a ton to love about what Williams brings to the table. In 2008, Williams had a monster season, rushing for more than 1,500 yards. He has yet to approach such production again, but like Stewart, Williams averaged 5.4 yards per carry in 2011. Williams has great vision, runs with excellent pad level and I very much believe he has a lot more in the tank even though he recently turned 29. Williams is a solid receiver but seems to have been passed over by Stewart for the bulk of those duties.

Despite his stature, Tolbert also can contribute quite a bit in the passing game. I don’t see him as a fullback, but rather a punishing ball-carrier with an incredibly low center of gravity and excellent power. Tolbert has gotten into the end zone 21 times over the past two seasons and clearly excels near the goal line.

Having quarterback Cam Newton a part of this rushing attack helps a great deal, but the Panthers also will be getting mauling right tackle Jeff Otah back and drafted a similar bruising masher in the run game to play guard in Amini Silatolu. The Panthers should have one of the league’s very best rushing attacks -- and a very dangerous offense overall -- in 2012.

2. New Orleans Saints: The Saints have more backs than they know what to do with, but they distribute the touches from this position extremely effectively. The Saints did not have a first-round pick in this past draft because they traded it to acquire Mark Ingram in the 2011 draft. He appeared in only 10 games during his rookie season due to injury issues. He flashed some of that first-round ability during those games, but overall, it was a rough season for Ingram. However, this former Heisman Trophy winner has true “bell cow” running back traits. Ingram has an excellent combination of leverage, power and vision with a fine burst through the hole. He can make yardage on his own and has the temperament to carry the load. Ingram’s knee now has to be a bit of a concern, though.

The Saints’ most dynamic player at the position -- maybe in the entire league -- is Darren Sproles. He is pure electricity as a runner or receiver. And the Saints use Sproles’ talents to perfection. Drew Brees and the Saints’ coaching staff do a fantastic job of using personnel, formation and motion to get Sproles in advantageous situations -- either as a receiver against an inferior coverage player or as a runner against minimal defenders in the box. And Sproles excels when used in such a manner. As you would expect with his diminutive stature, Sproles can struggle in protection. But despite his size, Sproles hasn’t missed a game in the past four years and has missed only two games in his six-year career.

As third running backs go, Pierre Thomas has no equal in the NFL. Thomas is a potent blend of what both Ingram and Sproles bring to the table. Thomas is somewhat of a jack-of-all-trades, but a master of none. Thomas would start for several teams in the league right now. He finished the 2011 season with just under 1,000 combined yards.

Further showing off their embarrassment of riches as this position, the Saints also have Chris Ivory. Ivory isn’t flashy or dynamic, but he runs with great conviction and power. Getting Ivory the touches he deserves could prove difficult, unless Ingram’s knee remains a major problem.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Buccaneers traded into the late first round to select Doug Martin. Considering Greg Schiano’s history at Rutgers favoring versatile two-way running backs like Ray Rice and Brian Leonard, I expect Martin to quickly grab ahold of the starting job in Tampa Bay over LeGarrette Blount.

Blount is a very powerful runner and is good overall with the ball in his hands, but he has fumbling issues and offers little as a receiver or in protection, which is just too much of an advantage to the opposing defense when he is on the field. But if given carries or if the Bucs are playing with a lead, which was rare last year, Blount can pound the opponent into submission. His career average of 4.6 yards per carry should not be easily dismissed, especially considering the circumstances he was under last year.

But Martin is the better all-around talent compared to Blount. A compact bowling ball with very good vision and a natural skill set for churning out yardage, Martin is also highly adept as a receiver out of the backfield. The Bucs also used a seventh-round pick on Michael Smith, which further shows their lack of trust in Blount.

Mossis Madu is also in the mix for Tampa Bay. As shown by their investments at guard, the Buccaneers are a run-first team. That is what Schiano wants and his offseason moves strongly indicate that is the approach Tampa Bay will be taking going forward, along with taking some shots deep downfield to Vincent Jackson. Martin should get the bulk of the running back touches, but there might be enough to keep both lead backs fed.

4. Atlanta Falcons: In a division loaded with high-quality running backs, Atlanta’s backfield is last on my list. Michael Turner is the lead back here. I see Turner as a declining player who needs a high volume of touches to be effective. Although Turner is a decent pass blocker, he offers very little as a receiver, which is a huge detriment in today’s NFL.

After Week 11 last season, Turner had only one game in which he rushed for more than 76 yards. Turner finished the season with 1,340 yards on the ground and six 100-yard days, but his performance was much too up and down on a week-to-week basis for a back of his nature. I am not implying Turner is over-the-hill. He isn’t. Turner still has value and can be very effective if used properly. But he just isn’t what he once was in terms of his elusiveness and burst. Amazingly though, Turner can still break off long runs. He also has missed only five games over the past five seasons, but I think the Falcons would be wise to get some insurance for their 30-year-old back.

Jacquizz Rodgers is ahead of the game with his blitz pickup for a young back, but now the Falcons need to enhance his role catching the football. That seems like the next logical step in this dynamic player’s development. As a runner, Rodgers certainly isn’t built to be a lead guy, but he shows some power for his size and is competitive in all phases of the position. He could break out in 2012.

Antone Smith and Dimitri Nance are also on Atlanta’s roster, but it seems logical that the Falcons will add another veteran running back with size to back up Turner.

At fullback, the Falcons have one of the best lead blockers in recent years in Ovie Mughelli, but the usage of a fifth-round pick on Bradie Ewing, another downhill hammer blocker, could be the beginning of the end for Mughelli in Atlanta. The Falcons also have Mike Cox, a pure battering-ram fullback, in the equation. But it is unlikely they keep three blocking fullbacks on the roster.
Unless you’re a die-hard fan of the New Orleans Saints, you might not even know who Jed Collins is.

That’s understandable because a season in which you compile four carries for four yards and two touchdowns and catch 11 passes for 50 yards and two touchdowns isn’t going to catch the eyes of casual observers.

But die-hard fans and casual observers alike might want to take a closer look at how much Collins meant to the Saints this past season. He had bounced around the NFL since 2008, but had never appeared in a regular-season game. But the Saints brought in Collins and he wound up replacing Heath Evans quite nicely.

In a season in which New Orleans set all sorts of records, Collins quietly played a very big role. He was responsible for protecting Drew Brees and opening holes for Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram and Chris Ivory.

Collins obviously had to be doing something right because the coaching staff used him extensively. According to playing time numbers from the 2011 season obtained by ESPN.com, Collins was on the field for 42.5 percent of New Orleans’ offensive plays. That’s the second-highest percentage of any fullback in the NFL.

Only Baltimore’s Vonta Leach (52.8 percent) was active in a higher rate of his team’s offensive snaps. Collins was on the field for 489 of New Orleans’ 1,152 offensive plays. He also contributed heavily on special teams. Collins took part in 32 percent of New Orleans’ special-teams plays.

Collins easily got more offensive playing time than any other NFC South fullback. Tampa Bay’s Erik Lorig was next at 23.6 percent. Lorig also got considerable time on special teams, participating in 66.8 percent of the Bucs’ special-teams plays. Tampa Bay’s Earnest Graham suffered a season-ending injury. But, prior to that, he got in on 18.8 percent of the offensive plays as a fullback and also was used at tailback.

Carolina’s Jerome Felton was next at 15.3 percent. Atlanta’s Ovie Mughelli also suffered a season-ending injury, but got in for 13.1 percent of the team’s offensive plays. Replacement Mike Cox was on the field for 11.9 percent of the Falcons’ offensive plays.

Around the NFC South

November, 15, 2011
11/15/11
7:47
AM ET
Time for a look at the top Tuesday morning headlines from around the NFC South.

Former NFL vice president of officiating Mike Pereira says the replay assistant made the right call in spotting the ball on a critical overtime play in the game between Atlanta and New Orleans. Officials ruled on the field that Atlanta fullback Mike Cox had gotten the first down. But the replay assistant reviewed the play and the call was reversed. The ball was spotted inches short of the first down. I looked at the replay again several times Monday night and thought Cox had the first down, or at least that there was not indisputable evidence to change the initial call. But Pereira knows a lot more about the rules than I do.

Although Carolina’s special teams have been struggling, coach Ron Rivera came to the defense of special teams coordinator Brian Murphy on Monday. Rivera said he’s satisfied with the job Murphy has been doing and pointed to a series of injuries that has forced Carolina to use lots of different players on special teams as the main reason for the problems.

Bradley Handwerger has his bye-week report card on the Saints. They got good, but not great, grades. I’d say that’s pretty accurate based on the first 10 games. The Saints have been good, but they definitely haven’t been perfect.

Coach Raheem Morris has been taking the blame for Tampa Bay’s struggles. But his players now are coming out and saying they deserve the blame. Either way, the Bucs are going to be practicing harder. The new labor deal limits the amount of times a team can practice in pads during the season. But the Bucs are going to put the pads on this week in an effort to try to become more physical. It can’t hurt.

Blame begins, ends with Mike Smith

November, 13, 2011
11/13/11
7:57
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Mike SmithScott Cunningham/Getty ImagesCoach Mike Smith is taking the blame for the Falcons' 26-23 overtime loss to the Saints.
ATLANTA – When he walks into a postgame news conference, Atlanta Falcons coach Mike Smith typically gives an opening statement. Sometimes he will go on for several minutes and the media must wait to ask questions.

On Sunday, it was different. Smith made a few quick remarks before making his most daring decision of the day.

“With that, I’ll open it up,’’ Smith said. “I know there are probably lots of questions that you guys have. I’m ready for them.’’

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The avalanche was on. For the next 9 minutes, 20 seconds, Smith basically fielded the same question about a dozen times and gave the same answer repeatedly.

That’s what happens when you make a call like Smith did in Sunday’s 26-23 overtime loss to the New Orleans Saints. With a fourth-and-inches at his own 29-yard line and 10:52 remaining in overtime, Smith elected to go for the first down instead of punting. The play wasn't even close to being successful.

“It’s something that I take full responsibility for,’’ Smith said. “It is my decision and my decision solely.’’

Point the fingers at Smith and keep them there the rest of the season if the Falcons (5-4) don’t catch up to the Saints (7-3) in the NFC South.

“I know it will be scrutinized all week long,’’ Smith said. “And again, I want everybody to understand, I take full responsibility for that.’’

It should be noted Smith slowly emphasized each of the last six words of that quote. He also used some form of “I take full responsibility’’ at least four times.

That might end up being the title of this Falcons’ season if this team somehow misses the playoffs. In general, you can say that one play doesn’t decide a game and a handful of plays don’t decide a season.

But what happened Sunday was an exception to generalizations. Smith’s decision cost the Falcons a very big game – and, in the long run, maybe a lot more.

For the record, let’s review the series of events that led to a decision that will be talked about for a very long time in Atlanta. After falling behind 23-13 with 7:13 remaining in regulation, the Falcons rallied with a touchdown pass from Matt Ryan to Tony Gonzalez and a 27-yard field goal by Matt Bryant as the clock on the fourth quarter ran out.

In overtime, the Falcons ran three plays and punted. Then, the Saints ran three plays and punted. The Falcons ran three more plays and, at first, it looked like fullback Mike Cox had a first down after catching a short pass. But the play was reviewed and the ball was placed just short of the first-down marker.

That’s when Smith sent his punting team onto the field. Then, he called a timeout. Then, he suddenly put his offense back onto the field and the Saints called a timeout.

Then came, what could end up being a historic moment.

The Falcons handed the ball to Michael Turner, who was met by defensive tackle Shaun Rogers and defensive end Will Smith. Instead of gaining a few inches, Turner lost a few feet and the Falcons lost the game. Well, that actually came four plays later when John Kasay booted a 26-yard field goal that was more a formality.

The game was decided the second Smith decided to put his offense back on the field. So let’s hear his thought process.

“We were going to punt the football, then had a change of heart,’’ Smith said. “I wanted us to go for it. I thought the ball was inside half a yard and we could get it. Did not want to give the ball back to the Saints. In previous games, close games that we’ve played them, we’ve punted the ball with three minutes to go in the ballgame. We never saw it again and they ended up winning the ballgame. That was the decision-making process that I went through.’’

You can make the case that maybe the Falcons should have had Ryan run a quarterback keeper. But it wasn’t the play call, so much as it was the decision to go for it with poor field position. New Orleans’ offense had cooled off, not scoring a touchdown on its three-fourth quarter possessions or its first possession of overtime.

“It wasn’t that we didn’t have faith in the defense,’’ Smith said. “That’s a very good quarterback (Drew Brees). By no means is that a lack of faith in the defense. It’s a matter of what has happened when we’ve played them in the past that is always a part of the decision-making process.’’

Smith’s decision was universally supported in the Atlanta locker room.

“As a player, you’ve got to love the confidence he has in the offense,’’ Ryan said.

“That’s what you’ve got to do in these types of games -- be aggressive,’’ linebacker Sean Weatherspoon said.

It also drew high praise in one corner of the New Orleans locker room.

“It takes some steel you- know-what to make that call,’’ Brees said.

In another corner of the locker room came the wisest words anyone said all day. Those words came from Will Smith when asked what kind of a message the Falcons sent when they put their offense back on the field.

“We’re big, bad and stronger than you guys,’’ Will Smith said. “And we stood up and said, 'No, you’re not.'’’

Someone then mentioned that it’s not uncommon for a team to go for it on fourth down and inches.

“Yeah, but not on the 30,’’ Will Smith said. “In overtime. If they don’t get it, that’s game over.’’

In between taking “full responsibility,’’ Mike Smith repeatedly tried to explain his decision was part of his plan to be aggressive throughout the game.

“When you get the ball, you want to go ahead and try to end it,’’ Smith said. “I felt that we had been very aggressive in everything we did throughout the day in what we did offensively, defensively and on special teams, and we wanted to stay that way through the end of the ballgame.’’

Being aggressive can be a wonderful thing, especially when it’s the smart thing. But the sad reality is Smith’s decision was neither aggressive nor smart. The smart and aggressive thing would have been to punt, trust his defense, and put his offense in a better position to win the game. The smart and aggressive thing would have been for Smith to do the first thing that popped into his mind -- not the second thing.

You have to wonder if anything else was running through Smith’s mind during the timeout before he sent the offense out. Did he hear the noise from the crowd and his offensive players, begging him to go for it? Did he feel pressure from a front office and ownership that seemingly was shooting for Super Bowl or bust this season?

“It’s my responsibility as the head football coach and you have to make tough decisions,’’ Smith said. “I take full responsibility for it.’’

It’s good that Smith is blaming himself for this one. Because there’s absolutely no one else to blame on this one.

NFC South Stock Watch

November, 1, 2011
11/01/11
1:00
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» NFC Stock Watch: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

FALLING

1. The New Orleans offensive line. Drew Brees was sacked six times and the running game never got going in Sunday’s loss to St. Louis. Right tackle Charles Brown struggled mightily and it’s likely he’ll be back on the bench soon because Zach Strief is coming back from injury. But the problems weren’t all due to Brown. New Orleans has some highly regarded players across the rest of the line, but none of them played well Sunday. Guard Carl Nicks had a bad game and fellow guard Jahri Evans also appeared off. Jermon Bushrod has developed into a dependable left tackle, but he wasn’t dependable against the Rams.

2. Jonathan Vilma, Saints linebacker. He has been one of the top players in the NFC South the past few years. But Vilma doesn’t look the same this year. Part of it might be because of a knee injury that’s been bothering him all season. Against the Rams, I saw Vilma miss a couple of tackles he never would have missed a few years ago.

3. Olindo Mare, Panthers kicker. Carolina cut veteran and fan favorite John Kasay to make room for Mare, who landed a huge contract. Mare has kicked well most of the season. But he missed a 31-yard field-goal attempt that would have sent Sunday’s game with Minnesota into overtime. Yeah, Kasay was old and couldn’t kick off, but I don’t recall Kasay ever missing very many 31-yard kicks.

RISING

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Kregg Lumpkin
Fernando Medina-US PRESSWIRETampa Bay Buccaneers running back Kregg Lumpkin is about to have an increased role.
1. Kregg Lumpkin, Buccaneers running back. He’s 27, but this reserve has all of 14 career carries and has never scored an NFL touchdown. Ready or not, Lumpkin’s about to get an increased role. With Earnest Graham lost for the season to injury, Lumpkin is going to be the top backup to LeGarrette Blount. He also is likely to be used as the third-down back. The Tampa Bay coaches are high on Lumpkin and they better be right because he’s only a Blount injury away from being the feature back.

2. Jason Snelling, Falcons running back. Fullback Ovie Mughelli has been lost for the season with a knee injury. The Falcons did sign Mike Cox and he could be used as the lead blocker for Michael Turner at times. Snelling is the top backup to Turner at tailback, but he has filled in at fullback from time to time. Don’t be surprised if the Falcons decide to let Snelling and Cox share the duties at fullback. At 237 pounds, Snelling might be a little light for a fullback. But he’s a good blocker and his ability to run and catch passes could add a new dimension to Atlanta’s offense if he’s playing fullback.

3. Julio Jones, Falcons receiver. The rookie was off to a pretty good start before missing the past two games with a hamstring injury. The bye week helped Jones get healthy and he returned to practice Monday. I’m expecting a big second half of the season from Jones. Remember, he was thrown right into the starting lineup and didn’t have a true offseason because of the lockout. He seemed to catch on pretty quickly, but this little break has given Jones a little time to really process everything.

Falcons up tight against salary cap

October, 31, 2011
10/31/11
5:43
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After losing fullback Ovie Mughelli to a season-ending knee injury and signing Mike Cox to help replace him, the Atlanta Falcons suddenly are very tight against the salary cap.

The Falcons are just $1.641 million under their adjusted cap of $123.4 million, according to current league-wide figures obtained by ESPN.com. The only teams with less cap space are the Pittsburgh Steelers ($1.09 million) and the New York Giants ($1.498 million).

If the Falcons have any more injuries, they’ll likely have to sign players at minimum salary. If they have multiple injuries, they may have to renegotiate the contract of one of their veterans to create additional cap space.

The Carolina Panthers aren’t far behind the Falcons. They’re $2.005 million under the cap. The New Orleans Saints currently have $3.7 million in cap room.

Those three are well beneath the league average ($10.8 million) in cap space.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are at the other end of the spectrum. They have $26.1 million in cap space. The only teams with more cap room are the Jacksonville Jaguars ($33.8 million) and the Kansas City Chiefs ($27.5 million).
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