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Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Falcons in 2012.

Dream scenario (13-3): Let’s note right up front that that dream record would also include at least two postseason wins, which would be a first in the era of coach Mike Smith, general manager Thomas Dimitroff and Matt Ryan. In their time, the Falcons have played the days after Christmas exactly like they’re the days after Christmas. There’s been a huge letdown when January has rolled around.

That’s putting an enormous amount of pressure on the Falcons. But that might be a good thing. Smith has said postseason failures have caused him to rethink how he does a lot of things. There’s little doubt those failures played a role in the hiring of new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter and defensive coordinator Mike Nolan, moves that might get the Falcons over the hump.

There are a lot of scouts and coaches around the league who believe Ryan was held back by former offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey and the defense never established any sort of identity under Brian VanGorder. The Falcons can score with any team if Ryan is allowed (and has time) to throw the ball downfield to Roddy White and Julio Jones. Nolan is preaching about the need to be more aggressive on defense.

Nightmare scenario (8-8 or anything worse): Let’s face it: The only way the Falcons are a .500 (or worse) team is if they have several major injuries or a huge implosion. This is a team that is loaded with individual talent on both sides of the ball. Or so it seems.

When coordinators go, head coaches and key players tend to lose their insulation. If Koetter can’t get more out of Ryan than Mularkey did, the Falcons suddenly have a huge issue at quarterback. If Nolan can’t get guys like Ray Edwards and Dunta Robinson to do more than they did for VanGorder, then maybe it’s not all about the coordinators or offensive and defensive schemes.

Owner Arthur Blank has said Smith isn’t on the hot seat, no matter what happens this season. But I think Smith is at least entering the same territory Tony Dungy once did in Tampa Bay. Smith is being labeled as a nice guy who can win a lot of games in the regular season but can’t win in January. If this team doesn’t win a playoff game, Smith officially is on the hot seat. If this team somehow fails to even make the playoffs, Blank might be forced to rethink his statement. This team is too talented not to win.

It’s back to business as usual after a little down time.

Before we start moving ahead, though, there were two events that happened while I was off that I’d like to weigh in on.

The Atlanta Falcons released veteran fullback Ovie Mughelli. The Falcons likely would have preferred to release him back before the start of free agency, but Mughelli still was recovering from a season-ending leg injury suffered last year. Once Mughelli was healthy enough to pass a physical, the Falcons went ahead and pulled the plug. They’re taking a bit of a leap of faith in hoping that rookie Bradie Ewing or Mike Cox can fill the void. Mughelli easily was the best fullback in the NFC South the past few seasons. But age was catching up to Mughelli. That’s something the Falcons have to be conscious of at multiple positions because they still have guys like defensive end John Abraham, center Todd McClure and tight end Tony Gonzalez. This team has to start mixing in some younger players and parting ways with Mughelli was one way to move in that direction.

Mughelli was a great lead blocker for Michael Turner, but I’ve got a feeling new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter isn’t going to be using the power running game quite as much as predecessor Mike Mularkey. Yes, Ewing or Cox will take on that role at times, but I think you’ll see more one-back sets as the Falcons try to get Jacquizz Rodgers on the field more often to take advantage of his speed.

I also wouldn’t be surprised if Koetter uses an H-back from time to time. From the moment the Falcons drafted receiver Kerry Meier, they have raved about his versatility. But we really haven’t seen much of Meier except on special teams. The Falcons are deep at receiver, so using an H-back from time to time could be one way to get Meier onto the field.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers suffered a big blow when defensive end Da'Quan Bowers tore his Achilles tendon in an offseason workout. Even though the length of the offseason program has been shortened and new rules are in place limiting how much contact players can have even during regular-season practices, this type of thing still will happen. Anytime you get athletes out on the field, there is the potential for injury.

This one hurts because the Bucs thought Bowers could develop into a full-time starter in his second season. Bowers has said he expects to return at some point this season, but that may be overly optimistic. Adrian Clayborn and Michael Bennett could form a decent starting tandem, but the Bucs have to hope that someone like George Johnson can step into the third spot in the rotation. Johnson will get his chance between now and roster cuts at the end of the preseason. If he impresses, he could have a spot in the rotation. If not, the Bucs will be looking hard at the waiver wire in late August and early September.

The other thing to ponder here is what the injury means for Bowers’ career. He had micro-fracture knee surgery prior to last year’s draft and that led to a lot of speculation that his career might only last about four years. If Bowers does miss the entire season and the speculation about his knee turns out to be correct, his career could be about half over.

Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan has only just started working with new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter in the team’s offensive program, but he already is seeing some differences.

Ryan said Koetter has kept a lot of the terminology the same and only about 20 percent of the playbook is new. But even a change of 20 percent can be a good thing.

“I think he brings a different perspective from (predecessor) Mike Mularkey over the last couple of years,’’ Ryan said. “Sometimes when things are explained in different ways to guys, it seeps in and guys learn better that way. Hopefully, Dirk will provide that for us. I think he will.”

Ryan has always praised Mularkey and that’s not going to change. But I think some subtle changes by Koetter might be a good thing and I hope he’s consulting with Ryan. The quarterback is at a stage in his career where he should have some input into the offense. If Koetter is smart, he would be wise to ask Ryan what he likes and dislikes doing. I’m not sure that ever really happened with Mularkey. Ryan arrived as a rookie and quickly adjusted to Mularkey’s offense.

But I’m not sure Mularkey’s offense ever fully adjusted to Ryan’s strengths. One thing that isn’t a Ryan strength is rolling out and it seemed like he was doing that far too often. I’d also be in favor of seeing a few more screen passes out of this offense. It’s not like I’m a huge fan of the screen pass, but the Falcons barely used it under Mularkey. I think some more screens can help open the way for more deep passes.

Ryan said the offense’s ultimate success is more about the players than the system.

“I think as a player you have to learn the system and scheme as best you can, but your primary focus has to be on execution,” Ryan said. “I think from a player perspective, our execution has to be better. It hasn’t been up to the standard that we need to be at and that’s what we’re going to work on this offseason.”

Given the way Atlanta Falcons fans have reacted to what the team has done (or, more accurately, not done) this offseason, I was expecting Arthur Blank to pull out earmuffs as he reached into his pocket just before the start of an interview last week.

It didn’t happen. Instead, the owner of the Falcons pulled out a pair of sunglasses. This was a rare step outside during the NFL owners meetings in Palm Beach, Fla. He slipped on the shades, surveyed the Atlantic Ocean, sat down on a bench and started explaining, in great detail, the course his team has chosen.

Maybe this will, once and for all, stop all the screaming in Atlanta about how the Falcons didn’t pursue LB Mario Williams and didn’t really do much of anything in free agency. Blank has a detailed answer for that and, when you listen, it should all start to make sense.

There was a moment when I looked directly at Blank, but could have sworn I was seeing and hearing Gene Hackman. It was almost exactly like the scene in “Hoosiers," where the basketball coach played by Hackman firmly tells a referee “my team is on the court" after a player fouls out and the coach elects to go with four players instead of turning back to a player who had defied orders.

Blank has said, “My team is on the field."

Yeah, the marquee free-agent signings have been linebacker Lofa Tatupu and guard Vince Manuwai. And Atlanta fans aren’t exactly jumping up and down about the fact that the Falcons re-signed defensive end John Abraham and center Todd McClure; it wouldn’t have surprised anyone if they decided to retire. Throw in the re-signing of role players Thomas DeCoud, Jason Snelling and Harry Douglas, and it’s easy to see why a lot of Atlanta fans believe the Falcons haven’t done a single thing to get better after ending last season with an embarrassing playoff loss to the New York Giants.

But Blank has an explanation, so let’s hear it.

“I feel good about where we are,’’ Blank said. “I know we didn’t make a big splash going into free agency. But that really wasn’t our intention going into this year. We really felt we had a lot of talent. We were fortunate that we had the opportunity to bring in the two new coordinators and a few other coaches. At some point, it’s not even a matter of if the contents are correct. Sometimes, it’s a matter of who is delivering the message and whether the players are hearing it or not.’’

The man makes a good point. The 2011 Falcons team that went 10-6 (and didn't play with much consistency) was essentially the same team that went 13-3 and played with a great deal of consistency in 2010. The 2012 Falcons have largely the same roster as the previous two teams. In the eyes of Blank, general manager Thomas Dimitroff and coach Mike Smith, the problem last season and the reason this team hasn’t won a playoff game under the current administration isn’t about the roster.

Maybe the roster was just fine, but the coaching staff and the schemes were holding back the Falcons. Offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey left after the season to become head coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder left after the season to become the defensive coordinator at Auburn. Both men left on their own, but I get the impression that if they hadn’t, they might have been shown the door.

Let’s be honest here. Mularkey’s offensive system reached its peak in 2010 and didn’t get any better even with the addition of talented rookie receiver Julio Jones last season. VanGorder’s defense was solid but never dominant, which was a disappointment because the Falcons have some individual talent on defense. Mularkey has been replaced by Dirk Koetter, and VanGorder has been replaced by Mike Nolan.

“I love the selections that Smitty and Thomas made,’’ Blank said.

I get the sense that the days of QB Matt Ryan rolling out and almost always checking down are over. I get the sense that the days of sitting back in the Cover 2 are long gone.

“Dirk and I have had numerous discussions in terms of what our players are capable of doing,’’ Smith said during the meetings. “I think, first and foremost, you have to design your schemes toward what the players are capable of doing. We’ve spent a lot of time identifying the strengths and weakness of all our guys and what they do well and what they don’t do well, and we want to put together an offense that accentuates their strengths.’’

In other words, the Falcons aren’t going to be handing the ball to Michael Turner 300-plus times a season. They’re going to try to take some shots downfield with Jones and Roddy White, and they’re going to get versatile second-year running back Jacquizz Rodgers more involved in the offense. They also will try to put Ryan in a position where he can go from being a good quarterback to an elite one.

Smith said he’s had similar discussions with Nolan, the former head coach of the San Francisco 49ers who has had success as a defensive coordinator elsewhere. Nolan is noted for producing aggressive defenses. Some minor tweaks to attitude and scheme could provide an upgrade over the VanGorder units that never were able to establish any sort of identity.

Blank made quite a bit of noise after the loss to the Giants about how simply getting to the playoffs wasn’t good enough. He wants his team to win playoff games and contend for the Super Bowl.

That really hasn’t changed. But after the heat of the moment cooled a bit, Blank, Smith and Dimitroff sat back and realized they weren’t all that far from where they wanted to be. Early in his days as an owner, Blank was portrayed as hands-on and reactionary. I don’t think those descriptions really fit him anymore and I think he’s learned from his past. I think Blank is at a stage where he remains plugged in but trusts Smith and Dimitroff to make the football decisions.

“I went back and studied this over a long period of time in the NFL and studied the great teams,’’ Blank said. “Consistency is very important in terms of leadership with coaches and players. The great teams, what they have done is they’ve kept their head coaches for a longer period of time, kept their general managers for a longer period of time, and they identified early enough their core players and they extended them. The football staff has done a great job of identifying the players that can help us and keep them.’’

The salary cap also was a factor in the Falcons’ approach to the offseason. Pursuing Williams or some other big names in free agency would have meant sacrificing continuity. The only key player the Falcons lost was middle linebacker Curtis Lofton -- and that was a calculated loss. Lofton wanted a lot of money and Atlanta placed a limit on his value. If the Falcons had made just one or two big free-agency moves and kept Lofton, guys like Abraham, McClure, DeCoud, Douglas and Snelling wouldn’t be on the roster. The team would have had to cut other players to free up cap room. The Falcons could have made a splash, but it would have left them with all sorts of holes.

“What you have to look at is, this is not like baseball,’’ Blank said. “There are limits. This is real money and not monopoly money … one of the beauties in the NFL is that in July and August fans of every team think their team has a chance to go to the playoffs or to go to the Super Bowl and win it. The salary-cap system forces you to make some tough choices. Thomas and Smitty and their staffs made these choices because they believe they were the ones that will give us the biggest bang for the buck going forward. I certainly tested their logic and asked questions, but I think their plan was all very sound and well-formulated.’’

Like it or not, Blank is putting his team (the one chosen by Smith and Dimitroff) on the field this fall. You might not like it now and that’s fine with Blank. He thinks you’ll like it a lot more as the season goes along.

The Atlanta Falcons will be featured once on national television in the preseason.

They’ll host the Cincinnati Bengals in an Aug. 16 game that will be carried on FOX. The exact dates and times for the other three preseason games are not set yet.

But the Falcons will open their preseason schedule at home with the Baltimore Ravens sometime between Aug. 9 and 13. They will play at Miami between Aug. 23 and 26.

They’ll wrap up the preseason with a game at Jacksonville on either Aug. 29 or 30. In recent years, the Falcons and Jaguars have played in the preseason and also held joint practices leading into the game. Atlanta coach Mike Smith was a former assistant to former Jacksonville coach Jack Del Rio. Former Atlanta offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey is now the head coach in Jacksonville, so the healthy relationship between the two teams continues.

I’m not sure Smith and Mularkey would want to hold a joint practice so late in the preseason, because those type of workouts generally come earlier in the preseason. We’ll see.

Let's take a look at the top headlines from around the division.

Tom Sorensen makes a compelling case for the Panthers to sign receiver Randy Moss, who says he wants to come out of retirement. As Sorensen points out, the Panthers have shown a little more flexibility lately in being willing to take chances on players with reputations (see Cam Newton and Jeremy Shockey) and there’s no doubt Moss has had some issues in his past. But Moss always had the ability to stretch the field and that’s something the Panthers could use to take coverage away from Steve Smith. But they also think third-year pro Brandon LaFell might be ready to blossom and David Gettis will be returning from an injury.

Speaking of compelling arguments and veteran receivers, John Manasso makes a pretty strong case that the Falcons should sign Hines Ward if, as is expected, he is released by the Pittsburgh Steelers. My first reaction was that the Falcons really don’t need to add a receiver who is about to turn 36. But Manasso points to Ward’s strong roots to the Atlanta area, his reputation as a locker-room leader and his experience as a winner. It’s tough to argue that the Falcons couldn’t use a few more players who have experience winning in the postseason.

Speaking of the Falcons and receivers, Atlanta reportedly has denied Jacksonville’s request to interview receivers coach Terry Robiskie for the same job. Former Atlanta offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey is now Jacksonville’s head coach and he brought quarterbacks coach Bob Bratkowski along with him as offensive coordinator. Those were steps up and weren’t blocked by the Falcons, but this would have been a lateral move for Robiskie and the Falcons don’t want to lose him.

Roy Cummings writes that new Tampa Bay offensive coordinator Mike Sullivan was noted for putting players through quirky drills when he was quarterbacks coach of the New York Giants. But the unconventional methods were used to get a conventional result -- sound decision making. That’s what Sullivan will be working to get out of quarterback Josh Freeman.

An offseason of upheaval continues for the Atlanta Falcons.

Director of player personnel Les Snead is leaving to become general manager of the St. Louis Rams, several league sources confirmed to ESPN.com.

This comes after offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey left to become head coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars and defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder took a college job. Dirk Koetter has taken over as offensive coordinator and Mike Nolan as defensive coordinator. The Falcons also have made several other changes to their coaching staff.

While the departure of a front-office employee might not seem as big a deal as changes on the coaching staff, this particular case is a big deal. Snead carried lots of weight in the front office and was viewed as a key assistant to general manager Thomas Dimitroff.

This is an excellent hire by the Rams because Snead is an experienced talent evaluator who is more than ready for the next step. He should work well with new coach Jeff Fisher. But it’s also a big loss for the Falcons, and Dimitroff will have to adjust his staff.

Snead had been with the Falcons for 13 years and had worked his way up the scouting ladder to director of personnel.

Time for a look at some of the top headlines from around the NFC South.

New Orleans guard Carl Nicks says he would like to remain with the Saints. But the potential free agent is skeptical about the chances of that happening because quarterback Drew Brees, receiver Marques Colston, cornerback Tracy Porter and some others also are no longer under contract. There is virtually no doubt Brees will re-sign. But who else stays remains to be seen. Nicks seems to have his doubts, but I’m guessing he’s the next priority after Brees. Nicks is in his prime and might be the best guard in the league. He also is one of Brees’ main protectors. The Saints are going to invest huge money in Brees. I suspect they’ll be willing to invest huge money in protecting him, even if it means making Nicks the NFL’s best-paid guard.

Mark Cook takes a look at some potential candidates to become offensive coordinator for the Buccaneers. New coach Greg Schiano has yet to announce any staff hires and getting an offensive coordinator might be the most important move he’ll make. The Bucs need someone who can help quarterback Josh Freeman bounce back from a disappointing season.

The Buccaneers reportedly are talking to Pittsburgh defensive assistant Jerry Olsavsky about becoming their linebackers coach.

A stellar rookie season by Carolina quarterback Cam Newton is opening lots of doors. Newton has picked up another endorsement deal, this one with Gatorade.

Atlanta coach Mike Smith said the offensive playbook is nearly complete. The Falcons have new coordinator Dirk Koetter and I’m sure there are some new plays. But I don’t think the playbook has been completely overhauled. A lot of what previous coordinator Mike Mularkey did was because it was what Smith wanted and quite a bit of it worked. Koetter’s bright enough to know he doesn’t have to start from scratch. He just needs to make some tweaks to make the offense more consistent.

Charlie Campbell has his updated mock draft. He has the Bucs taking cornerback Morris Claiborne in the first round. Makes sense because we don’t know if veteran Ronde Barber will be returning and Aqib Talib faces a March trial on an assault charge. Campbell also has the Panthers taking Penn State defensive tackle Devon Still with the No. 8 or 9 pick (the exact spot will be determined by a coin flip). That also makes sense because the middle of the defensive line has been a problem spot for the Panthers in recent years. But I also could see Carolina using its first-round pick on a receiver or a cornerback.

The Atlanta Falcons may stay within the organization when they fill their vacancy at quarterbacks coach. Glenn Thomas is a leading candidate for that role, D. Orlando Ledbetter reports.

It makes plenty of sense. Thomas, 34, has been an offensive quality-control coach for the Falcons since the arrival of coach Mike Smith in 2008. He obviously has to know quarterback Matt Ryan pretty well.

The Falcons lost quarterbacks coach Bob Bratkowski, who became the offensive coordinator in Jacksonville when former Atlanta coordinator Mike Mularkey became the Jaguars' head coach earlier in January.

Bratkowski spent only the 2011 season with the Falcons. He replaced Bill Musgrave, who had been Ryan’s quarterbacks coach in his first three seasons. Musgrave left after last season to become offensive coordinator in Minnesota.

Former Jacksonville coordinator Dirk Koetter has been hired as Atlanta’s offensive coordinator. Koetter obviously will bring some subtle changes to Atlanta’s offense. But promoting Thomas to quarterbacks coach could provide some familiarity and continuity for Ryan.

Smith is a coach who believes in loyalty and promoting Thomas would illustrate that. It’s also not a bad thing to start moving young coaches up the ladder.

The best example I can give you of that is Mike McCoy. I saw him join the Carolina Panthers as a quality-control assistant under George Seifert. McCoy later worked his way up to quarterbacks coach and he had a strong relationship, and a fair amount of success, with Jake Delhomme.

That success put McCoy on the radar for bigger things and he was hired as Denver’s offensive coordinator in 2009. He was reunited there with former Carolina coach John Fox in 2011 and McCoy largely was credited for the success of Denver quarterback Tim Tebow. That led to McCoy getting several interviews for jobs as a head coach this offseason.

After a playoff loss to the New York Giants in early January, it became obvious the Atlanta Falcons would have some major changes in the offseason.

That process continued Monday as the Falcons announced defensive backs coach Alvin Reynolds has been released from his contract. Reynolds joined the Falcons in 2008 at the same time coach Mike Smith was hired.

But Smith’s staff, which had remained largely intact through his tenure, is going through a major shakeup. Offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey left to become the head coach in Jacksonville, and defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder left for a job at Auburn.

Mike Nolan has replaced VanGorder, and Dirk Koetter has taken over for Mularkey. The Falcons also parted ways with offensive line coach Paul Boudreau.

Time for a Tuesday morning look at the top headlines from around the NFC South.

— A lot of Carolina fans are asking why the Panthers simply don’t block offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski from interviewing for the head coach job in Tampa Bay. Joe Person reports the Panthers aren’t allowed to stop Chudzinski from taking a step up. The team also could offer Chudzinski more money to stay, the way Wade Phillips did in Houston. But Chudzinski’s a young guy who wants to explore opportunities as a head coach. If he ends up staying, he probably will get a nice raise. By the way, Chudzinski is interviewing with the Bucs today. Cincinnati defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer was supposed to interview Monday. But Zimmer encountered some travel issues and he also will interview with the Bucs today.

— Former Minnesota head coach Brad Childress said he has yet to hear back from the Bucs after interviewing for their job. Childress said the team told him the search would take some time. He also said he wouldn’t be opposed to coming to Tampa Bay as an offensive coordinator, if another candidate is hired.

The Bucs also are expected to interview Green Bay quarterbacks coach Tom Clements later this week. There also have been reports the Bucs have asked for permission to interview Green Bay offensive coordinator Joe Philbin.

— John DeShazier points out the Saints would have ended up hosting the NFC Championship Game if they had won in San Francisco. They would have hosted the New York Giants, who upset Green Bay. The Saints beat the Giants at home in the regular season. I’m sure everyone who works for the Saints — and all of their fans — are wondering what could have been if the Saints played the NFC Championship Game in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. By the way, coach Sean Payton is scheduled to meet with the New Orleans media later Tuesday to review the season.

— Atlanta fans continue to be shocked at the hiring of Dirk Koetter as offensive coordinator. One of their main gripes is the Falcons didn’t even go through the process of interviewing other candidates. We don’t know for sure that’s true. The media doesn’t always get every interview. Besides, coach Mike Smith knew for a good month that former coordinator Mike Mularkey probably would end up as the head coach in Jacksonville. Smith had plenty of time to think about a replacement and he has history with Koetter.

New offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter hasn’t started the job just yet, but he’s pledging to put a balance offense on the field next season.

“Balance is difficult to defend,’’ Koetter said in a conference call with the Atlanta media Wednesday morning. “When you have the weapons that Atlanta has in the run game and the pass game, you’d be foolish not to take advantage of everything that has to offer. There are various ways to get guys the ball. You have to get your play makers the ball in a place to make plays.’’

Getting big plays was an issue for the Falcons in a 2011 season that was marked by inconsistency on offense and a playoff loss to the New York Giants in a game in which the Atlanta offense did not score a point.

Koetter, who spent the last five years as offensive coordinator in Jacksonville, replaces Mike Mularkey, who became the head coach of the Jaguars. Owner Arthur Blank, coach Mike Smith and general manager Thomas Dimitroff each have said simply making the playoffs isn’t good enough. The Falcons have made the playoffs in three of Smith’s four seasons, but have yet to win a postseason game. Clearly, part of Koetter’s job will be to help the Falcons take the next step.

“There’s pressure everywhere and nobody puts more pressure on me than I put on myself,’’ Koetter said. “All I can say is I’ll be extremely dedicated to the task at hand and I understand the task at hand.’’

After a 2011 season in which Jacksonville wound up playing rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert and a very ordinary group of wide receivers, Koetter is stepping into a situation in which he inherits quarterback Matt Ryan, receivers Roddy White and Julio Jones, tight end Tony Gonzalez and running back Michael Turner.

“Everybody can read the stats and know they have excellent skill players,’’ Koetter said. “How everything fits together, that will be stuff that we’ll be working on once we get up there.’’

Koetter said he expects to arrive in Atlanta and begin working later this week. He already met with Ryan while he was interviewing for the position.

“You can tell Matt’s a guy that really understands offensive football and that he’s got a great passion for not only playing, but for winning,’’ Koetter said. “I couldn’t be more excited to work with Matt as well as some of the other players they have in that offensive group.’’

Koetter said his offense in Atlanta will be a combination of the existing offense and some things he’s done in the past.

“I don’t know if anybody owns any offense out there,’’ Koetter said. “There’s a lot of good offense out there. I think it will be a combination of some of the things that I’ve done in the past and things that Atlanta has done well in the past. I think we’d be foolish to not build on some of the things Atlanta is already doing very well.’’

Koetter said he and Ryan discussed the no-huddle offense, something the Falcons have had success with in recent years. Koetter said Ryan made it clear he likes the no-huddle system and that’s something the Falcons will continue to use at times. But Koetter said he’s not ready to declare a percentage on how often the Falcons will go without a huddle.

Koetter said both the running game and vertical passing will be big parts of his offense. But he also said something that should come as welcome news to Atlanta fans, who often griped that Mularkey almost never used screen passes.

“I’m a big believer in the screen game,’’ Koetter said. “Coach Smith has mentioned to me that he would like us to be a better screen team and that’s definitely a part of what we’ll try to do there.’’

All those Atlanta fans that aren’t thrilled with the hiring of Dirk Koetter as Atlanta’s offensive coordinator might find some good news in the numbers I’m about to reveal.

Unlike previous offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey, Koetter likes to use screen passes. That’s pretty obvious from his days as the coordinator in Jacksonville.

In 2011, Jacksonville rookie Blaine Gabbert completed 36 of 45 (80 percent) of his attempts on screen passes for 190 yards, which ranked No. 19 in the league, according to ESPN Stats & Information. The Jaguars may have thrown even a few more screens than that. Gabbert started the final 14 games. Luke McCown started the first two games and we can likely assume he attempted at least a few screens. We don’t know for sure because ESPN Stats & Information’s list of numbers on screen passes only goes 36 quarterbacks deep.

Right near the bottom of the list is Atlanta’s Matt Ryan. He attempted only 20 screens while starting all 16 regular-season games. He completed 16 of those attempts for 68 yards -- that yardage total ranked No. 32 among quarterbacks.

Koetter wasn’t simply trying to take pressure off his rookie quarterback. He’s got a history of using the screen. In the 2010 season, former Jacksonville starter David Garrard completed 37 of 42 screen passes (88.1 percent) for 316 yards.

I know there are a lot of Atlanta fans freaking out that the Falcons hired Dirk Koetter as their new offensive coordinator.

I understand that it’s easy to look at the Jacksonville Jaguars offense Koetter orchestrated in 2011 and not get too excited. But I think you might want to look at the bigger picture before calling this move a huge mistake.

Yeah, the Jaguars were a bad team, but that’s not Koetter’s fault. As AFC South colleague Paul Kuharsky notes, Koetter was a good coach in a bad situation. In 2011, the Jaguars had a head coach (Jack Del Rio) who was melting down and doing desperate things. That left Koetter having to try to make miracles with rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert and a bunch of wide receivers who don’t belong in the NFL.

Don’t judge Koetter on one season because I don’t think that’s what Atlanta coach Mike Smith was thinking when he made the decision. Do you really think Smith is going to hire someone who he thinks is inept to fix his offense?

I don’t. Smith’s future depends largely on this hire and the hiring of a defensive coordinator that he’ll be doing soon. When offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey and defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder left, Smith lost his insulation. It was pretty clear in the aftermath of the playoff loss to the New York Giants that owner Arthur Blank wasn’t satisfied with the season. The coordinators are gone and that means Smith is on the hot seat if the team doesn’t meet expectations next season.

Smith worked with Koetter in Jacksonville and I’m sure Smith could have hired any number of other candidates. He chose Koetter and this wasn’t a quick choice. It was pretty well known around the league for about a month that Mularkey was going to become the head coach in Jacksonville. Smith had lots of time to think about this one and he got the guy he wanted.

“Dirk is a veteran offensive coach who will bring years of NFL experience as an offensive coordinator as well as a fresh set of ideas to our offense,’’ Smith said in a statement released by the team to officially announce Koetter’s hiring. “He is bright, he understands the intricacies of the vertical passing game, but he also wants to be able to run the football which is very important in the NFL. I look forward to working with Dirk and have tremendous confidence that he will be a great addition to our team and our coaching staff."

I haven’t covered Koetter yet, but I’ve heard very good things about him from people who have covered him, including Kuharsky. I’ve also heard very good things about him from others who have coached with him. Koetter’s respected around the league and that’s almost always a good sign. I hadn't heard the same things about some of the other names that were linked to this position.

Before this ugly season in Jacksonville, Koetter was viewed as a potential head coach. He did some good things in his first four seasons in Jacksonville. In that time span, Jacksonville’s offense ranked 13th in the NFL in total yards (338.6 per game), sixth in rushing (134.2), fifth in third-down conversions (43.0 percent) and fifth in average yards per rush (4.5). In his first season with the Jaguars (2007), Koetter directed a record-breaking season as the offense set franchise records for points (411 total and a 25.7 average), touchdowns (50) and touchdown passes (28).

Prior to that, Koetter led Arizona State to four bowl games in his six seasons as head coach and finished with a 40-34 record. He also served as offensive coordinator and helped the Sun Devils average nearly 30 points per game over six seasons, and the team was ranked in the top 20 in the nation in passing offense in five of his six seasons.

Give this guy a chance with Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Julio Jones, Tony Gonzalez and Michael Turner and I think Atlanta fans might be pleased with the results.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have Atlanta’s old offensive coordinator as their head coach. Now, the Falcons have Jacksonville’s former offensive coordinator, Dirk Koetter, as their play caller.

ESPN’s Chris Mortensen reported Koetter has been hired as Atlanta’s new offensive coordinator and the team just confirmed the move.

Koetter also had interviewed for the coordinator’s job with the University of Alabama, but the Falcons won out.

Koetter has history with Atlanta coach Mike Smith. Koetter joined the Jacksonville staff in 2007, Smith’s last season as the Jaguars’ defensive coordinator. Prior to joining Jacksonville, Koetter had a long history as a college offensive coordinator.

In Atlanta, Koetter’s main job will be to get more out of a talented offense than Mularkey did. Despite having a passing game that featured Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez and a running game that featured Michael Turner, the Falcons were inconsistent on offense during the 2011 regular season. In their playoff loss to the New York Giants, they did not score any offensive points.